north shore labor market update january 2013
DESCRIPTION
North Shore Labor Market Update January 2013. Presented by Will Sinatra. Total Industrial Employment on the North Shore from Jan 2007 to March 2012. North Shore Labor Market Update. Recession period from 4 th Quarter 2007 to 4 th Quarter 2009 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
NORTH SHORE LABOR MARKET UPDATE JANUARY 2013Presented by Will Sinatra
NO
RTH SHORE LABO
R MARKET U
PDATE
Jan-07
Mar-07
May-07Jul-0
7Se
p-07
Nov-07Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08Jul-0
8Se
p-08
Nov-08Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09Jul-0
9Se
p-09
Nov-09Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10Jul-1
0Se
p-10
Nov-10Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11Jul-1
1Se
p-11
Nov-11Jan-12
Mar-12
157000
159000
161000
163000
165000
167000
169000
171000Average Quarterly Employment
Total Industrial Employment on the North Shore from Jan 2007 to March 2012
• Recession period from 4th Quarter 2007 to 4th Quarter 2009
• Recovery period from 4th Quarter 2009 to 4th Quarter 2011
Source: EOLWD, LAUS, 1/07-3/12
NO
RTH SHORE LABO
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PDATEThe Recession on the North Shore 4th Quarter 2007- 4th Quarter 2009
The North Shore 4th Quarter 2009 Employment is 154,651• 5,121 jobs lost during this period • 3% decline
4th Quarter 2009 Employment 4Q 07- 4Q 09 Percent Change
Utilities
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Public Administration
Finance and Insurance
Wholesale Trade
Construction
Administrative and Waste Services
Other Services
Professional and Technical Services
Accommodation and Food Services
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Educational Services
Retail Trade
Health Care and Social Assistance
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
801
1,584
1,898
3,117
3,130
3,207
5,654
5,757
5,899
6,125
6,552
7,491
7,796
14,989
4,298
12,262
16,560
16,863
26,344
30,402
-30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0%
4.8%
-3.2%
-12.0%
-3.3%
2.9%
7.0%
-2.3%
-5.8%
-4.0%
-21.3%
-11.0%
4.4%
-6.9%
-0.3%
-9.6%
-19.3%
-17.0%
4.4%
-2.3%
6.3%
Source: EOLWD, ES202, 4thQ07-4thQ09
NO
RTH SHORE LABO
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PDATE
NE employment at 402,017 but lost 15,500 jobs during this period, a 3.7% decline
Northeast Region
Massachusetts
MA employment at 3,009,046 but lost 130,000 jobs during this period, a 4.0% decline
Source: Clifford, New England Policy Center
Source: Clifford, New England Policy Center
NO
RTH SHORE LABO
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PDATEOutcome of the Recession
4th Q2007-4th Q2009
Areas of Significant
Change North Shore Northeast Massachusetts/
All Regions
Gained Jobs Information Management of Companies Health Care, Education
Lost Jobs --- Wholesale, Information
Manufacturing, Construction, Administrative Support & Waste Services, Financial Services, Professional & Technical Services, Retail
Recession Outcomes:• Health Care and Education gained employment• Manufacturing, Construction, Administrative Support Waste
Services, Financial Services, and Real Estate were the hardest hit
NO
RTH SHORE LABO
R MARKET U
PDATEThe Recovery on the North Shore 4th Quarter 2009 – 4th Quarter 2011
The North Shore total employment in the 4th Quarter 2011 was 168,911 • recovered 4,267 Jobs during this period• 2.6% growth
4th Q 2011 Employment 4Q 09- 4Q 11 Percent Change
Utilities
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Public Administration
Finance and Insurance
Wholesale Trade
Construction
Administrative and Waste Services
Other Services
Professional and Technical Services
Accommodation and Food Services
Educational Services
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Retail Trade
Health Care and Social Assistance
- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
732
1,568
1,834
3,096
3,161
3,262
5,373
5,566
6,076
6,257
7,124
8,041
8,095
15,717
17,014
4,182
13,106
17,288
26,408
31,820
-10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%
-8.5%
-1.0%
-3.4%
-1.1%
-1.4%
4.7%
-5.0%
-3.3%
3.0%
2.2%
8.7%
7.3%
3.8%
4.9%
0.9%
-2.7%
6.9%
4.4%
0.2%
4.7%
Source: EOLWD, ES202, 4thQ09-4thQ11
NO
RTH SHORE LABO
R MARKET U
PDATENortheast Recovery 417,486 Employment, 3.6% Growth
Massachusetts Recovery 3,234,889 Employment, 2.9% Growth
4th Q
uarter 2011 Employm
ent4
th Quarter 2011
Employm
ent
4thQ 09-4thQ 11 Percent Change
4thQ 09-4thQ 11 Percent Change
Utilities Management of Companies and Enterprises
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Transportation and Warehousing
Information Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Public Administration Finance and Insurance
Wholesale Trade Construction
Administrative and Waste Services Other Services
Professional and Technical Services Accommodation and Food Services
Educational Services Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
Durable Goods Manufacturing Manufacturing
Retail Trade Health Care and Social Assistance
- 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000
1,437 5,243
3,819 10,149 10,500
6,868 14,632
11,907 15,162
18,020 21,175
18,163 28,605
33,526 40,495
15,256 44,332
59,588 48,604
68,844
-20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0%
-7.8%-12.3%
-4.1%0.7%
-2.3%4.1%
-1.7%1.9%
1.4%6.6%
14.0%7.4%
5.4%6.2%
0.1%0.7%
5.3%4.1%
1.7%6.0%
Utilities Management of Companies and Enterprises
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Transportation and Warehousing
Information Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Public Administration Finance and Insurance
Wholesale Trade Construction
Administrative and Waste Services Other Services
Professional and Technical Services Accommodation and Food Services
Educational Services Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
Durable Goods Manufacturing Manufacturing
Retail Trade Health Care and Social Assistance
0 150,000 300,000 450,000 600,000
13,99858,956
40,20698,219
90,10551,840
133,390167,969
124,078126,066
166,190138,436
264,611265,007
344,12187,269
167,053254,322
354,301535,214
-4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%
2.0%0.7%0.8%
1.8%0.6%
4.7%-1.1%
-1.4%-1.6%
4.5%8.0%
7.0%5.1%
6.0%1.1%
-1.4%1.0%
0.2%3.1%
4.2%
Source: EOLWD, ES202, 4thQ09-4thQ11
NO
RTH SHORE LABO
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PDATEAreas of Significant
Change North Shore Northeast Massachusetts/All Regions
GainedJobs Durable Goods Durable Goods, Professional
& Technical Services
Health Care,Accommodation & Food Services, Administrative Support and Waste
Services, Construction
Lost JobsUtilites, Public
Administration, Finance, Real Estate
Management of Companies, Real Estate Finance, Non-Durable Goods
Current State of Recovery
• Recovery Outcomes: • Health Care continues to grow• Education’s growth has slowed down• Manufacturing is returning, concentrated growth in Durable Goods
in the Northeast and North Shore• Very slow growth in Construction• Tourism pick up throughout
• Growth in Accommodation & Food Services and Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation.
• Financial Services employment decline is nearly double the rate on the North Shore compared to the Northeast and Massachusetts
• Real Estate is weak on the North Shore and Northeast compared to Massachusetts
NO
RTH SHORE LABO
R MARKET U
PDATEUnemployment Rate for the USA, Massachusetts, and North Shore
• North Shore Unemployment follows Massachusetts• Seasonal Trends
• Rises in Dec-Jan and April/May-June• Falls from Feb-April/May and Sept-Oct• Remains steady during the Summer
Jan-07
Mar-07
May-07Jul-0
7
Sep-07
Nov-07Jan
-08
Mar-08
May-08Jul-0
8
Sep-08
Nov-08Jan
-09
Mar-09
May-09Jul-0
9
Sep-09
Nov-09Jan
-10
Mar-10
May-10Jul-1
0
Sep-10
Nov-10Jan
-11
Mar-11
May-11Jul-1
1
Sep-11
Nov-11Jan
-12
Mar-12
May-12Jul-1
2
Sep-12
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
North Shore Northeast Massachusetts USA
Source: EOLWD, LAUS, 1/07-9/12
NO
RTH SHORE LABO
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PDATEUnemployment Challenges
Region Census Total Labor ForceUnder 35 35 & Over
% of Unemployed
% of Labor Force
% of Unemployed
% of Labor Force
USA 2009-2011 ACS 156,456,694 52% 36% 48% 64%
Massachusetts 2009-2011 ACS 3,573,919 48% 35% 52% 65%
Northeast 2008-2010 ACS 556,272 45% 32% 55% 68%
North Shore 2007-2011 ACS 220,038 47% 32% 53% 68%
• The Under 35 population are disportionately represented in the percentage of unemployed throughout the country
• The Northeast and North Shore Labor Forces are older than Massachusetts and USA
Northeast
Source: Clifford, New England Policy Center
NO
RTH SHORE LABO
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PDATEEducational Attainment of the Population Over 18 Years Old
EUC= Customer’s with more than 26wks of unemployment
Total EUC North Shore Masschusetts USA0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
8% 11% 14% 15%
51%
28% 25%29%
4%
19% 18%
24%
13%
8% 7%
7%
17%
21% 21%
17%
7%13% 14%
9%Graduate or professional degree
Bachelor's degree
Associate's degree
Some college, no degree
High school graduate
Less than High School
Sampling of Extended Unemployment Coverage customers enrolled from May19th to July 31stSource: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2007-2011, 2008-2011
NO
RTH SHORE LABO
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PDATEWhat is the education data telling us?
• The North Shore has a comparable educational attainment level to the Northeast • The North Shore & Northeast
both have a lower rate of Graduate degrees than Massachusetts but a higher rate of Associates' and Some College
• Massachusetts, Northeast, and the North Shore all have an educational attainment higher than the USA.
• The EUC Cohort has an educational attainment lower than all regions
Northeast
Source: Clifford, New England Policy Center
NO
RTH SHORE LABO
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PDATE0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
5% 8% 8%
16%11% 10% 12%
8%12%
77%
54%49% 31%
21%29% 27%
20%
28%
5%
5%
3%
36%
18%
17%
43%
18%
16%
7%
14%
13%
4%
8%
8%
3%
6%
8%
7%
13%
19%
12%
30%21%
14%
31%
20%
0%4%
8%1%
12% 15%
1%
17% 17% Graduate or professional degree
Bachelor's degree
Associate's degree
Some college, no degree
High school graduate
Less than High School
Source: Massachusetts One-Stop Employment System, MOSES
Educational Attainment by Age Groups for EUC, North Shore, & Massachusetts
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2007-2011, 2008-2011
NO
RTH SHORE LABO
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PDATEWhat is the education data telling us?
• The population Under 35 has a higher educational attainment than the 35 and Over Cohort when considering the number still in High School and College• The North Shore and Northeast have similar educational attainments• Both regions are lower than Massachusetts
• However, the EUC Cohort has a reversal of the educational trends with the 35 and Over having a higher attainment level compared the Under 35 Cohort.• Both groups are lower than their regional counterparts
NO
RTH SHORE LABO
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PDATEPutting it all together
• The North Shore economy is still recovering from the recession
• If the current growth rate is maintained we should recover all jobs lost to recession by the end of 2013, but unemployment will still remain higher than prerecession levels due to population growth and individuals returning to the labor force.
• The unemployed will be at a disadvantage in returning to employment due to their lower level of educational attainment compared to their peers.• This is especially true for the Under 35 EUC group
• Opportunities should exist in Durable Goods manufacturing
Sample Durable Goods Manufacturing Jobs in Essex County
Occupation Employer City Salary
Electronic Assembler Raytheon Andover $40,000
Machinist Flowserve Lawrence $42,000
CNC Lathe Set-Up Sterling Machine Lynn $39,000
QC Inspector Johnson Controls Lynnfield $31,000
Mechanical Assembler Communication & Power Industries
Beverly $33,000
CNC Programmer A.W. Chesterton Company
Groveland $58,000
An online search of Wantedanalytics found 298 jobs in manufacturing posted from September 1st to January 8th
North Shore Labor M
arket Update
CON
TACT INFO
RMATIO
N
William SinatraPlanning & Data Analyst
North Shore Workforce Investment Board70 Washington Street, Suite 314
Salem, MA 01970(978) 741-3805