north korea launches 'long-range' rocket

8/14/2019 North Korea launches 'long-range' rocket

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Sunday April 5,

North Korea launches 'long-range' rocket

SEOUL (AFP) - North Korea launched a long-range rocket on

Sunday, defying months of pressure from the United States andits allies over what they warned would be an illegal ballistic missiletest. US President Barack Obama swiftly condemnedPyongyang's "provocative" act, South Korea denounced it as a"reckless" threat to world security, and the UN Security Councilwas to hold an emergency meeting at America's request. Japansaid the rocket flew over its territory while the boosters landedsafely in the waters off its coasts, and that it had not moved tointercept the rocket -- something North Korea had warned wouldbe seen as an act of war. But the launch, which the North saidwas a peaceful move to test a communications satellite, angerednations which have held years of nuclear disarmament talks withKim Jong-Il 's secretive communist regime. "The launch took placeat 11:30:15," a South Korean spokeswoman said, breaking firstnews of a launch which the North had vowed would take placebetween April 4-8. There was no immediate announcement from

Pyongyang. The North tested a missile and an atomic bomb in2006, while in the midst of the six-nation disarmament talks, and Obama said Pyongyang had tested a Taepodong-2, itslongest-range missile, with Sunday's launch. The North tested the Taepodong-2, which has an estimated range of 4,100miles (6,700 kilometres) in July 2006 but it failed after 40 seconds. The US State Department reiterated it saw the launchas a violation of Security Council Resolution 1718, adopted after that test, which imposed sanctions on the North andwarned against further nuclear or missile tests. The United States and North Korea have decades of hostility betweenthem, dating back to the 1950-53 Korean war which ended without a peace treaty, and Pyongyang's secretive regime hasoften worried its neighbours. "Regardless of any North Korean claims, this is provocative activity which threatens stabilityand peace on the Korean peninsula and in Northeast Asia," South Korean Foreign Minister Yu Myung-Hwan said. "NorthKorea's launch is a clear violation of (Resolution) 1718," Yu said. Despite the flurry of confirmations and condemnations ofthe launch, it was not immediately known if the exercise had succeeded. A South Korean official said Seoul believed therocket was carrying a satellite. "However, it does not necessarily mean that the launch was a success," the official wasquoted as saying by South Korea's Yonhap news agency. The other five nations in the disarmament talks had all calledon North Korea to refrain from the launch, including China -- the North's closest ally, which declined to make officialcomment in the aftermath of the launch. The Taepodong-2 could theoretically reach Alaska or Hawaii at maximum range,though North Korea was not believed to have configured a warhead for it yet. The North had given a window for thelaunch beginning on Saturday, and the actual launch came not long after official radio announced favourable weather

conditions in the morning. Analysts said North Korea wanted good film footage of a launch as part of plans to maximise itspropaganda value. The regime is seen as eager to give its people news of a technological triumph to bolster support at atime of lingering uncertainty over the health of leader Kim. There are widespread reports Kim suffered a stroke lastAugust. While apparently largely recovered, the incident has raised questions about who would succeed the 67-year-old.North Korea is also seen as trying to strengthen its hand with Washington in future nuclear disarmament negotiations.Pyongyang has said that bringing the matter to the UN Security Council -- let alone any sanctions -- would cause thebreakdown of the disarmament talks.

Photo: AFP


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Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK)The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea or DPRK) is a Communist state with anunderdeveloped economy, but a powerful military, situated on the Korean peninsula between northeastChina and the Republic of Korea (South Korea). North Korea limits trade and transportation links with othercountries and tightly restricts the circumstances under which foreigners may enter the country and interactwith local citizens. Telephone and fax communications are unavailable in many areas of the country, and

foreigners can expect their communications to be monitored by DPRK officials. In recent years, North Koreahas experienced intermittent famine, chronic fuel and electricity shortages, and outbreaks of disease. Manycountries, including the United States, have contributed to international relief efforts to assist the people ofNorth Korea.

The DPRK adopted Marxism-Leninism as its ruling philosophy when it proclaimed its establishment in 1948,but in a Constitutional revision in 1972, supplemented it with the juche ideology, or national self-reliance.The two philosophies were combined into one as "the juche idea of the Worker's Party of Korea, a creativeapplication of Marxism-Leninism to the conditions of our country". In 1980, the official ideology wassimplified as "the juche thought of the Great Leader, Kim Il-Sung". According to the DPRK Constitution,

juche is "a revolutionary ideology with a people-centred view of the world that aims to realise theindependence of the masses, the guiding principle of its actions". Juche consists of two parts: thephilosophical theory that claims the masses are the masters of history and the revolution, and the principlethat the masses need the guidance of a leader (Kim Il-Sung and his son, Kim Jong-Il) to fulfil their destiny.

In practice, juche resulted in an inward looking economic and political system that ostensibly rejectedinternational trade, but in reality became heavily dependent on the provision of goods on favourable termsfrom fraternal socialist states. With the demise of the communist bloc, the difficulties of this position soonbecame apparent. Shortages in spare parts, fuel, and food have grown but the isolationist ideology of juchecontinues to underlie all government policies and emphasis remains in advancing an independent road tonational development. The population is motivated to pursue juche through an intensive ideologicalcampaign and a pervasive programme of political indoctrination. Since its inception, juche has primarilystressed independence from external powers, but the regime now faces the dilemma of how to expand tradeand investment with the outside world in order to resuscitate the economy, without jeopardising its politicalstability.

The "Military First" orientation has always been the heart and soul of the North Korean regime. It providesthe only conceivable means by which the regime can survive and achieve its ultimate security throughreunification. The military continues to grow in both conventional and asymmetrical forces with increasing

emphasis on the latter. The military provides deterrence, defense, and a massive offensive threat, as well asleverage in international negotiations. The army is much more than just a military organization; it is NorthKorea's largest employer, purchaser, and consumer, the central unifying structure in the country, and thesource of power for the regime.

In August 1945, the Japanese in Korea surrendered to the former Soviet Union, which gained control of theKorean peninsula south to the 38th parallel. In August 1948, supposedly following general electionsthroughout the peninsula, the DPRK was established, with Kim Il-song heading the central government.These factitious elections are the basis for Pyongyang's claim as the only legitimate government of Korea,and Pyongyang has made a national goal of reunifying the country on its terms. In pressing this claim, theDPRK has engaged in a political, economic, and military competition with the Republic of Korea (ROK).However, in any comparison except military power, Pyongyang is a poor second.

On Saturday, 24 June 1950, DPRK forces invaded the ROK. The United States, acting with a mandate fromthe UN, took the lead in defending the ROK. The Chinese entered into the fighting, and the war'sinconclusive end led to a return to the status quo at the 38th parallel. An armistice, signed in July 1953, wasfollowed 2 months later by the signing of a mutual defense treaty between the United States and the ROK.

The country is currently being led by Kim Chong-il who succeeded his father upon the latter's death on 8July 1994. The elder Kim was a ruthless, charismatic leader who retained tremendous loyalty from thepeople, despite their hardships. Kim Chong-il has been described by detractors as paranoid, spoiled, andsuspicious, not having his father's abilities, and his access to the government bureaucracy is through aclique. The country is facing insurmountable internal problems and is unstable politically, economically, andsocially.


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political/military talks, 13 occasions of economic talks, and three occasions of Red Cross /sports-relatedtalks were held (total of 25 meetings).

After July, however, when members of an organization failed to visit Pyongyang to observe the 10thanniversary of Kim Il-sung's death, and when hundreds of North Korean defectors arrived en masse in SouthKorea, government-level inter-Korean dialogue governments came to a halt, with North Korea pointing to theabovementioned issues as obstacles to improving inter-Korean relations. Meanwhile, consultations have

continued for humanitarian aid for North Korea and the three major economic cooperation projects, includingconstruction of the Gaesong Industrial Complex. Private-level contacts were held intermittently.

Taking advantage of major political events such as the 10th anniversary of the inauguration of the military-first policy, the fifth anniversary of the June 15 Joint Declaration, and the 60th anniversary of Korea'sliberation from Japanese colonial rule (1910-1945), during 2005 North Korea was expected to focus onreinforcing the direct rule regime of Kim Jong-il and intensifying internal solidarity.

Maps of North Korea

Click on the small image to view a larger version

Terrain


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Attack Corridors

North KoreanMilitary Facilities

North KoreanMilitary Facilities [PDF]

Corps Areas Major Airfields


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China and North Korea: Comrades Forever?

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Chinas influence on North Korea is more than it is willing to admit but far less thanoutsiders tend to believe. Although it shares the international communitysdenuclearisation goal, it has its own concept of how to achieve it. It will not tolerateerratic and dangerous behaviour if it poses a risk of conflict but neither will it endorse orimplement policies that it believes will create instability or threaten its influence in bothPyongyang and Seoul. The advantages afforded by Chinas close relationship with theNorth can only be harnessed if better assessments of its priorities and limitations areintegrated into international strategies. Waiting for China to compel North Koreancompliance will only give Pyongyang more time to develop its nuclear arsenal.

Chinas priorities with regard to North Korea are:

avoiding the economic costs of an explosion on the Korean Peninsula; preventing the U.S. from dominating a unified Korea; securing the stability of its three economically weak north eastern provinces by

incorporating North Korea into their development plans; reducing the financial burden of the bilateral relationship by replacing aid with

trade and investment; winning credit at home, in the region and in the U.S. for being engaged in

achieving denuclearisation; sustaining the two-Korea status quo so long as it can maintain influence in both

and use the North as leverage with Washington on the Taiwan issue; and avoiding a situation where a nuclear North Korea leads Japan and/or Taiwan to

become nuclear powers.

Chinas roughly two-billion-dollar annual bilateral trade and investment with NorthKorea is still the most visible form of leverage for ending deadlock and expediting thenuclear negotiations. However, there is virtually no circumstance under which Chinawould use it to force North Koreas compliance on the nuclear issue. Even though thecrackdown on North Koreas banking activities in Macao in September 2005demonstrated that China is not completely immune to outside pressures to rein in badbehaviour, Beijing is unlikely to shut down the Norths remaining banking activities inthe country.

China opposes sanctions on North Korea because it believes they would lead toinstability, would not dislodge the regime but would damage the nascent process ofmarket reforms and harm the most vulnerable. It also has reasons related to its own questfor reunification with Taiwan not to mention human rights issues in Xinjiang and Tibet,and its own economic interests in Sudan and elsewhere for opposing aid conditionalityand infringements on sovereignty and being generally reluctant to embrace sanctions.


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The China-North Korea Relationship

Introduction

China is North Korea's most important ally, biggest trading partner, and main source of food, arms,

and fuel. In the hope of avoiding regime collapse and an uncontrolled influx of refugees across its800-mile border with North Korea, China has helped sustain Kim Jong-Il's regime and opposed harshinternational economic sanctions. After Pyongyang tested a nuclear weapon in October 2006, expertssay that China has reconsidered the nature of its alliance to include both pressure and inducements.But Beijing, arguably, continues to have more leverage over Pyongyang than any other nation and hasplayed a central role in the ongoing Six-Party Talks, the multilateral framework aimed atdenuclearizing North Korea.

Strong Allies

China has supported North Korea ever since Chinese fighters flooded onto the Korean peninsula tofight for their comrades in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) in 1950. Since theKorean War divided the peninsula between the North and South, China has lent political and

economic backing to North Korea's leaders: Kim Il Sung and his son and successor, Kim Jong-Il.

In recent years, China has been one of the authoritarian regime's few allies. But this long-standingrelationship suffered a strain when Pyongyang tested a nuclear weapon in October 2006 and Chinaagreed to UN Security Council Resolution 1718, which imposed sanctions on Pyongyang. By signingoff on this resolutionas well as earlier UN sanctions that followed the DPRK's July 2006 missiletestsBeijing departed from its traditional relationship with North Korea, changing from a tone ofdiplomacy to one of punishment. Jonathan D. Pollack, an East Asia expert at the Naval War College,describes the DPRK's tests as "jarring" to China's diplomatic effort to compel North Korea to the Six-Party Talks. He says Kim Jong-Il was effectively telling Beijing, "You can not tell us what to do andwe can not be taken for granted.'" Despite their long alliance, experts say Beijing does not controlPyongyang. "In general, Americans tend to overestimate the influence China has over North Korea,"says Daniel Pinkston, a Northeast Asia expert at the International Crisis Group.

In general, Americans tend to overestimate the influence China has over North Korea. DanielPinkston, International Crisis Group

At the same time, China has too much at stake in North Korea to halt or withdraw its support entirely."The idea that the Chinese would turn their backs on the North Koreans is clearly wrong," says AdamSegal, CFR senior fellow for China studies. Beijing only agreed to UN Resolution 1718 after revisionsthat removed requirements for tough economic sanctions beyond those targeting luxury goods, andChina's trade with North Korea has continued to increase. The Chinese are "doing just what they haveto do and no more" in terms of punishing North Korea, says Selig S. Harrison, Asia program directorat the Center for International Policy. He says the two countries will not jeopardize their mutuallybeneficial economic relationship.

Pyongyang's Gains

Pyongyang is economically dependent on China, which provides most of its food and energy supplies.According to Nicholas Eberstadt, a consultant at the World Bank, since the early 1990s, China hasserved as North Korea's chief food supplier and has accounted for nearly 90 percent of the countrysenergy imports.

China also provides aid directly to Pyongyang. "It is widely believed that Chinese food aid ischanneled to the military," (PDF) reports the Congressional Research Service, which allows the World


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Food Programs food aid to be targeted at the general population "without risk that the military-firstpolicy or regime stability would be undermined by foreign aid policies of other countries."

China is also a strong political ally. "As an authoritarian regime that reformed, they understand whatKim Jong-Il is most concerned withsurvival," Segal says. China has repeatedly blocked UNSecurity Council resolutions against North Korea, including some threatening sanctions.

China's Priorities

China's support for Pyongyang ensures a friendly nation on its northeastern border, as well asproviding a buffer zone between China and democratic South Korea, which is home to around 29,000U.S. troops and marines. This allows China to reduce its military deployment in its Northeast and"focus more directly on the issue of Taiwanese independence," Shen Dingli of the Institute ofInternational Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai writes in China Security (PDF). North Korea'sallegiance is important to Beijing as a bulwark against U.S. military dominance of the region as wellas against the rise of Japan's military.

As an authoritarian regime that reformed, they understand what Kim Jong-Il is most concerned withsurvival. Adam Segal

China also gains economically from its association with North Korea; growing numbers of Chinesefirms are investing in North Korea and gaining concessions like preferable trading terms and portoperations. Chinese trade and investment in North Korea now totals $2 billion per year. "They'rebecoming a stakeholder in the North Korean economy," Pinkston says.

"For the Chinese, stability and the avoidance of war are the top priorities," says Daniel Sneider, theassociate director for research at Stanford's Asia-Pacific Research Center. "From that point of view,the North Koreans are a huge problem for them, because Pyongyang could trigger a war on its own."Stability is a huge worry for Beijing because of the specter of hundreds of thousands of North Koreanrefugees flooding into China. "The Chinese are most concerned about the collapse of North Korealeading to chaos on the border," Segal says. If North Korea does provoke a war with the United States,China and South Korea would bear the brunt of any military confrontation on the Korean peninsula.

Yet both those countries have been hesitant about pushing Pyongyang too hard, for fear of makingKim's regime collapse. The current flow of refugees into China is already a problem: China haspromised Pyongyang that it will repatriate North Koreans escaping across the border, but invitescondemnation from human rights groups when sending them back to the DPRK. Jing-dong Yuan ofthe Center for Nonproliferation Studies in California says Beijing began its construction of a barbedwire fence along this border in 2006 for that reason.

Experts say China has also been ambiguous on the question of its commitment to intervene for thedefense of North Korea in case of military conflict. According to the 1961 SinoNorth Korean Treatyof Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, China is obliged to defend North Korea againstunprovoked aggression. But Jaewoo Choo, assistant professor of Chinese foreign policy at Kyung HeeUniversity in South Korea, writes in Asian Survey that "China conceives itself to have the right tomake an authoritative interpretation of the principle for intervention," (PDF) in the treaty. As a result

of changes in regional security in a post-Cold War world, he writes, "China now places more value onnational interest, over alliances blinded by ideology." But, he argues, Chinese ambiguity deters othersfrom taking military action against Pyongyang.

Beijing's Leverage

Beijing has been successful in bringing North Korean officials to the negotiating table at the Six-PartyTalks many times. "It's clear that the Chinese have enormous leverage on North Korea in manyrespects," Sneider says. "But can China actually try to exercise that influence without destabilizing the


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regime? Probably not." Pinkston says that for all of North Korea's growing economic ties with China,Kim still makes up his own mind: "At the end of the day, China has little influence over the militarydecisions."

Also, China does not desire to utilize its leverage except for purposes consistent with its policyobjectives and strategic interests, say experts. Choo writes, " After all, it is not about securing

influence over North Korean affairs but is about peaceful management of the relationship with theintent to preserve the status quo of the peninsula." This CFR.org Crisis Guide offers an in-depthanalysis of the dispute on the Korean peninsula.

A Difficult Relationship

Pyongyang is not an ally Beijing can count on. Kim Jong-Il's foreign policy is, like its leader, highlyunpredictable. "North Korea is extremely difficult to deal with, even as an ally," according to Sneider."This is not a warm and fuzzy relationship," he says. "North Korean officials look for reasons to defyBeijing." The relationship is further plagued by:

o Mutual distrust. North Korea jeopardized relations with China, its most importantally after the fall of the Soviet Union, through its 2006 nuclear testing. Yet distrust between the two

countries predates the nuclear blast. Peter Hayes, executive director of the Nautilus Institute forSecurity and Sustainable Development, says it goes back in part to 1992, when China became a "badpatron" by opening up relations with South Korea without requiring Washington to do the same forthe North. The test was also a way for North Korea to tell Beijing that it is not Chinas tributary state,as it was until the Korean peninsula fell under Japanese control in the early twentieth century.

o Japanese military spending. Pyongyang's reckless behavior has sparked increasingdebate in Japan over whether it should go nuclear in the face of the North Korean threat. China haswitnessed with growing wariness Japan's remilitarization in recent years and fears the DPRK testcould set off an arms race in the region. The test also drives a wedge between China and South Korea,which share a softer approach to North Korea, and the United States, which supports a strongerJapanese military.

o U.S. relations. The DPRK test complicated Beijings relations with Washington bycalling into question Chinas diplomatic approach to North Korea. Pollack of the Naval War College

says Kim conducted the nuclear test to say, "Ok, now I am on a more equal level to the United States,whether they like it or not," and the result is a "palpable sense that [Chinese] strategy has failed." Butif China s policy has disappointed, so has the United States' more severe stance and unwillingness toengage in bilateral talks with North Korea. "It's a shared failure," says Pollack.

Washington's Role

The United States has pushed North Korea to verifiably and irreversibly give up its uranium-enrichment activities before Washington will agree to bilateral talks. Experts say Washington andBeijing have very different views on the issue. "Washington believes in using pressure to influenceNorth Korea to change its behavior, while Chinese diplomats and scholars have a much more negativeview of sanctions and pressure tactics," Pinkston says. "They tend to see public measures ashumiliating and counterproductive."

Having complained for years that the Bush administration was demanding too much, the Chinese nowsay they fear Washington is secretly prepared to accept North Korea as a nuclear-weapons state. Gary Samore

After the October 2006 nuclear test, Beijing convinced Pyongyang to return to the negotiating tableand the Six-Party Talks resumed on the basis of its last agreement, from February 2007. But nowBeijing, which until then had been the central player in the nuclear negotiations that had first started in2003, is increasingly feeling sidelined, says CFR Director of Studies Gary Samore. According to


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north korea launches 'long-range' rocket

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