north carolina agriculture blake brown, phd extension economist & hugh c. kiger professor...
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North Carolina Agriculture
Blake Brown, PhDExtension Economist & Hugh C. Kiger Professor
Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics
North Carolina State University
Factors Impacting the U.S. Agriculture Outlook
• Immigration reform (by executive order or otherwise)
• Regulation: FDA, EPA….• Rising interest rates• Lower energy prices • Strengthening dollar• Weak economic recovery in Europe• “Know your food”
“Farms with direct sales to consumers were 6.9 percent of the nation’s 2.1 million farms in 2012, but those sales accounted for only 0.3 percent of total agriculture sales.” “Farmers Marketing” USDA 2012 Census of Agriculture
“USDA estimates that farm-level value of local food sales totaled about $4.8 billion in 2008,…”
Congressional Research Service
Value of NC Ag Direct Sales: $29.1 million in 2007 Census
What about growth in global demand for food?
“Current UN projections indicate that world population could increase by 2.25 billion people from today’s levels, reaching 9.15 billion by 2050. At the global level, agricultural production and consumption in 2050 are projected to be 60 percent higher than in 2005/07.” FAO
“Question your Assumptions” about Global Growth in demand says Michael Swanson, Wells Fargo Ag Economist & Senior VP•GNP growth drives demand not population growth•China GNP growth will be primary driver•Brazil has 470 million acres in untapped potential•Africa has 990 million acres in untapped potential….but is plagued by Political Instability and poor or no infrastructure
Factors Impacting the U.S. Agriculture Outlook
• China– Slowing economic growth in China– But increasing demand for meat
• Growing world population….• Growing world GNP….• Competition from Brazil• Competition from other regions???• Political conflict & Infrastructure
Urban Growth and NC Agriculture
Composition of NC Agriculture
Source: NC Ag Statistics Yearbook 2013
NC Agriculture is Diverse
Broilers 24.7%
Turkeys 6.1%
Dairy 1.9%
Livestock, Poultry and Dairy 2/3 of all NC Farm Receipts
Eggs 3.4%Cattle 2.6%
Specialty Crops 2012 Cash Receipts$ million
Tobacco $754
Sweet Potatoes $198
Peanuts $151
Christmas Trees $75
Blueberries $71Squash $37Potatoes $36Watermelons $35Strawberries $29Cucumbers $29
NC Agriculture’s Place in US Agriculture
Distribution of 2010 Cash Farm Receipts: Total Crops, Livestock and Government Payments
Source: NCDACS
Structure of NC farms
NC had 52,913 farms in 2007Average Farm Acreage: 160
Sales less than $250,000
Source: USDA-NASS
NC had 50,210 farms in 2012Average Farm Acreage: 168
Source: USDA-NASS
Type of Farm: Total SalesNC farms had total sales of $10.3 billion in 2007
Source: USDA-NASS
Type of Farm: Land in FarmsNC farms had 8.47 million acres of farm land in 2007
Source: USDA-NASS
Summary of NC Agriculture
• Very diverse agriculture• Many small farms, but also large diversified
farms• Characterized by vertically coordinated
contract hog & poultry sector• AND by very diverse specialty agriculture• Growing urban population with growth in
local foods