north american sales forecast & wardsauto barometer haig stoddard, industry analyst north...

North American Sales Forecast & WardsAuto Barometer

Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst


Outlook for Q4 2015 and 2016



2009 Actual

2010 Actual

2011 Actual

2012 Actual

2013 Actual

2014 Actual

2015 Forecast

2016 Forecast

2017 Forecast

2018 Forecast

2019 Forecast

2020 Forecast

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

72%

74%

76%

78%

80%

82%

84%

Domestically Built Import % Domestic (right scale)Millions

Forecast North America Light-Vehicle SalesLong-Term Outlook through 2020



Sales-N.America

(Yr/Yr % Change)

Production-N.America

(Yr/Yr % Change)

WardsAuto 15-Month North American Outlook – Q4 2015/CY 2016 Industry Forecasts

Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 20160%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%One less production day from 2015

One more production day from 2015



North American Industry: Light-Vehicle Sales

2014 Actual 2015 Forecast 2016 Forecast

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

15.1 15.8 16.1

4.34.4 4.4

Domestically Built Import

Millions

Fourteen-year high volume in U.S., record sales in Canada and Mexico, push North America light-vehicle sales to 20.3 million in 2015, the first time above 20 million

Volume rises to 20.5 million in 2016, with nearly all gains from domestically sourced vehicles thanks to increased capacity (replacing imports) and U.S. demand for big trucks



Forecast North American Light-Vehicle Sales by Major Segments (Domestically Built vs. Import)

2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016CUV SMALL CAR MIDDLE CAR PICKUP SUV LUXURY CAR

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7


Millions

CUVs forecast for the biggest volume growth in 2016 and top 6 million units.Ironically, CUV gains strongest in imports due to heavy overseas sourcing of

small and luxury versions.Pickups also up, but most other segments remain relatively flat.



Forecast U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales - Domestically Built vs. Import

2014 2015 2016

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

13.0 13.5 13.8

3.53.6 3.5


Millions

Sales forecast at 17.1 million units in 2015, rising to 17.3 million in 2016, with domestically produced volume more than offsetting a slight decline in imports.

Why a record 7th consecutive Y/Y increase in 2016:

Economy, including some key fundamentals, continues to grow

Pent-up demand for new vehicles caused by the recession still exists

Vehicle replacement (aging vehicles) Fuel prices remain relatively low Off-lease volume Interest rates expected to stay low

enough to be a plus



Forecast U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales by Major Segment (Domestically Built vs. Import)

2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016CUV SMALL CAR MIDDLE CAR PICKUP SUV LUXURY CAR

0

1

2

3

4

5

6


Millions

CUV volume up in 2016, with an influx of imports to meet demand for small and premium-priced versions – could be underestimating

Small and Middle Cars continue to be crimped by CUVs – jobs and wage growth, low fuel costs a negative for cars

Pickups, small and large, rise in 2016 – construction and housing expected to continue steady (if not robust) gains – potential for incentive activity could push volumes higher

SUVs take small volume hit in 2016. New products that lifted 2015 start to lose luster, and much of the remainder of segment getting older – however, there is room for more competitive pricing

Luxury Cars getting pinched by luxury trucks – influx of new product keeps volumes flat with 2015



2014 2015 2016

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1.4 1.5 1.5

0.41 0.39 0.36


Millions

Forecast Canada Light-Vehicle Sales - Domestically Built vs. Import

Forecasting slight downturn in 2016 but still close to record highs.

Canada likely met the technical definition of a recession in first-half 2015, but was not reflected in automotive sales.

Will reach all-time record volume (1.88 million) for third consecutive year in 2015. There are economic issues that could impact the rest of 2015 and 2016 such as low oil prices, higher consumer debt and the possibility the Bank of Canada raises interest rates next year.

However, the Canadian automotive market has a history of resilience and stability, with less volatility than the U.S. even during the recession. Also, solid U.S. economic growth is good for Canada’s export-dependent economy.

Thus, more likelihood the 2016 forecast is low rather than high.



2014 2015 2016

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

0.710.81 0.85

0.42

0.500.52


Millions

Forecast Mexico Light-Vehicle Sales - Domestically Built vs. Import

Forecasting record 1.31 million units in 2015, followed by an increase to 1.37 million next year; the 7th consecutive Y/Y gain.

Economic growth expected to stay in line with the U.S., meaning sales should continue to increase in 2016.

Hyundai entering market in mid-2014, and Kia starting up this past summer, have made the market more competitive, and most companies took market-share hits, although their volumes were up.

The advent of Hyundai and Kia, though they do sell domestically produced vehicles in Mexico, increased import penetration in 2015 to over 38% from 37% in 2014. Import penetration is forecast to remain flat in 2016.

CUVs are growing in Mexico but small cars, including a heavy mix of imported entry-level models, continue as the dominant segment with roughly 60% penetration.



GM Ford FCA Toyota Honda Nissan Other0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2014 Actual 2015 Forecast 2016 ForecastMil-lions

Forecast North American Light-Vehicle Production by Manufacturer

2014 Actual: 16.95 million2015 Forecast: 17.46 million2016 Forecast: 17.88 million

Source: WardsAuto/AutoForecast Solutions



Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/20164.0

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.8

4.0

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.8

4.3 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.34.7 4.5 4.4

PRODUCTION TRAILING 12-MO QUARTERLY AVG.Millions

Forecast North American Production by Quarter

Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/201694%

96%

98%

100%

102%

104%

106%

108%

94%

96%

98%

100%

102%

104%

106%

108%

110%

99%

104%

98% 97%100%

107%

100% 99%

CAPACITY UTILIZATION TRAILING 12-MO. UTILIZATION



Small Car

Middle Car

Large Car

Luxury Car

0 1 2 3 4

2016

2015

Millions

Forecast North American Production by Car Segment Group

Thrust of small-car increase from Mazda beginning production for Toyota – Yaris and Scion iA – off its SkyActiv-B platform. Export output also a positive factor, offsetting weak demand in North America

Weak demand causing production cut; nearly every major platform in this group will drop – one notable exception is GM-Epsilon (new Malibu)

Demand for full-size cars all but dried up and getting worse. Dominated by Chevrolet Impala, Ford Taurus and Fiat-Chrysler LX-platform vehicles

Majority of N. American luxury-car sales come from imports. Of the ~80 vehicles in this segment, only one-third have year-over-year sales increases, and only a handful of those are domestically produced. Increased production largely due to replacement of overseas sourcing (Lexus ES)



Forecast North American Production by Light-Truck Segment Group

CUV

SUV

PICKUP

SMALL VAN

LARGE VAN

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

2016

2015

MillionsProduction increase would be stronger except many of the hottest vehicles, besides such vehicles as the Europe-built Fiat 500X, Jeep Renegade and South Korea-made Buick Encore, are luxury imports. Also, capacity constraints are causing some manufacturers to dual-source by bringing in more overseas-built versions (Chevrolet Trax, Honda HRV, Nissan Rogue, Toyota RAV4). Decline based on Nissan ending Xterra in August and Armada in December, and that 2015 included some inventory catch-up for GM’s large SUVs. (Note: some signs are pointing to a boom in Q4 SUV sales in the U.S., which could drain inventory enough to lift 2016 production above 2015)

Demand continues to rise. Output could go higher if Fiat-Chrysler and GM decide to get more competitive with Ford while it finally enjoys some year-over-year sales gains from the redesigned F-150Largely a rebound from lost production in 2015 when Fiat-Chrysler closed its Windsor plant for three months to begin tooling for the new Chrysler Town & Country coming next year

Demand expected relatively flat with competition a little stiffer from import models



Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/20160.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%

-2%0%

4%2%

-8%

9%6%

4%

PRODUCTION TRAILING 12-MO QUARTERLY AVG. Y/Y % CHG. (right scale)

General Motors North American Timeline 2015-2016

Millions

Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/2016

Camaro transitions to Alpha architecture; production shifts to Lansing GR from Oshawa. Resume second

shift at Lansing GR

Production slows end of 2015 through early 2016 due to changeovers to redesigned

Malibu, Cruze; end of SRX; other plant changes

At Spring Hill: Cadillac XT5 starts Q1; redesigned Acadia

in Q2 (production shifted from Lansing Delta)

Next-generation Buick LaCrosse starts;

production shifted to Hamtramck from Fairfax

Production slowed for inventory control on cars

Wentzville added third shift to meet demand

for Colorado and Canyon

Add Chevrolet Bolt in Orion;

end production of Buick Verano

Add Cadillac CT6 in Hamtramck

Overseas-built Buick Cascada and mid-CUV start sales

Next-generation Volt started at

Hamtramck



Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/20160.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

-7%

2%

19%15% 13%

5%

-9%

2%


Ford North American Timeline 2015-2016Production slowed for

changeovers to new F-150 at two plants; changeover to

new Edge and MKX at Oakville; inventory control

on cars, which underwent a severe slump in demand

Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/2016

Changeover to redesigned F-SuperDuty (T3 platform)

at Kentucky Truck

Ramp-up of new products, and weak year-ago totals,

lift Y/Y comparisons

Continued weakness for cars in general, more plants taking

summer downtime, will lower Y/Y comparisons

Add new Lincoln Continental (D8/CD4 platform) at Flat Rock

End Lincoln MKS in Chicago

Millions



Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/20160.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%

6%

-5%-4%

-6%

-9%

3%

-4%

-1%


Fiat-Chrysler North American Timeline 2015-2016

Millions

Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/2016

Production slowed with 3-month

shutdown of Windsor minivan plant for early tooling for new Town &

Country in 2016

Next-generation Town & Country

(RU platform) starts in Windsor

Expected production slowdown – timing could change - for

early tooling at Toluca for compact Jeep CUV in 2017

Production down Y/Y as projected

demand weakens for Dart, LX cars and (to a lesser extent)

mid-size SUVs

Jeep Compass and Patriot end

production at Belvidere



Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/20160.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

8%

4%

1%

-1%

4%

-2%

6%

-2%

PRODUCTION* TRAILING 12-MO QUARTERLY AVG. Y/Y % CHG. (right scale)

Toyota North American Timeline 2015-2016

Millions

*Production includes Camry output for Toyota by Subaru; excludes Mazda output for Toyota (products based on Mazda platform)

Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/2016

Lexus ES (MC platform) added at Georgetown.

Replaces Japan-sourced version

Y/Y comparisons skewed up due to lost

production in 2014 caused by severe

weather

Begin sales of redesigned Toyota Yaris and new Scion iA, both built by Mazda in

Mexico. (Data not included in Toyota production

totals.)

Redesigned Tacoma (285T

platform) began in San Antonio

and Tijuana

Stronger truck output lifts

volume

Weak demand for cars hurts output

Subaru ends Camry production for

Toyota; all Camry production

consolidated at Georgetown

Production began of next-generation Lexus RX (TNGA platform) in

Cambridge



Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/20160.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

1%

7%

5%

2%

8%

6%

3%

6%


Honda North American Timeline 2015-2016

Millions

Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/2016

Redesigned Honda Pilot (2SL platform) begins in

Lincoln

Redesigned Honda Civic (GCP platform) begins in

Alliston 1 and Greensburg

Sales begin of Japan-built Honda HRV in addition to NA-built

models

New Honda Ridgeline pickup

(2SL platform) starts in Lincoln

Redesigned Honda Odyssey (2SL platform)

starts in Lincoln

Honda HRV (GCP

platform) production shifts to El Salto from

Celaya

Redesigned Honda CRV

(GCP platform) begins in

Alliston 2, East Liberty and Greensburg

End Honda Crosstour production in East

Liberty



Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/20160.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

-2%

1% 1%

-1%

0% 0%

5%

2%


Nissan North American Timeline 2015-2016

Millions

Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/2016

Redesigned Nissan Maxima (D

platform) begins in Smyrna

Redesigned Nissan Titan

(D23/F-Alpha platform) begins

in Canton

New sub-compact Nissan

CUV (CMF-B platform) begins

in Cuernavaca

Nissan Xterra (D23/F-Alpha

platform) permanently

ends production

Nissan Armada (D23/F-Alpha

platform) permanently

ends production

Y/Y gains from increased CUV

output and cars for non-US

markets



Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/20160.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%

14%12%

8%

2%

-1%

7%

10% 9%


Rest of Industry North American Timeline

Millions

Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016 Q2/2016 Q3/2016 Q4/2016

Tesla adds Model X

Mitsubishi permanently ends

production at Normal, IL, plant; Outlander Sport – RVR in Canada - to be sourced from

Japan

Mazda began output of Scion iA/Toyota Yaris for

Toyota

Redesigned Hyundai Elantra (HD platform)

begins in Montgomery

Redesigned Kia Optima (NF/CM platform) began

in West Point

Kia begins first-time N.American

production of Forte (HD

platform) at new plant in

Monterrey

VW begins first-time N.American

production of Audi Q5 (MLB

platform) at new plant in San Jose

Chiappa

VW begins production of

new midsize CUV (MQB platform) in Chattanooga –

resume third shift

Subaru ends production of

Camry (MC platform) for Toyota

in Lafayette

Subaru begins first-time N.American production of Impreza (SGP platform) in

Lafayette



WardsAuto North American Outlook – Part 1Q4 2015/Q1 2016 Product and Plant Actions

Sales start dates in italics are WardAuto estimations

Company Brand Series Action Mfr. Assembly Source Segment Production Start Sales Start

BMW BMW 1-Series New vehicle BMW Germany Luxury Low er Import Oct 2015

BMW BMW X1 Next generation BMW Germany CUV Luxury Small Import Oct 2015

Daimler Mercedes GLC New vehicle Daimler Germany CUV Luxury Small Import Oct 2015

Daimler Mercedes Metris New vehicle Daimler Spain Van Small Import Oct 2015

FCA Chrysler Tow n & Country Next generation FCA Windsor Van Small Mar 2016 May 2016

GM Buick Cascada New vehicle GM Poland Middle Specialty Import Mar 2016

GM Cadillac CT6 New vehicle GM Hamtramck Luxury Middle Nov 2015 Jan 2016

GM Cadillac XT5 New vehicle GM Spring Hill CUV Luxury Middle Feb 2016 Arp 2016

GM Chevrolet Camaro Next generation; plant change GM Lansing GR Middle Specialty Oct 2015 Jan 2016

GM Chevrolet Cruze Next generation GM Lordstow n Small Upper Feb 2016 Apr 2016

GM Chevrolet Malibu Next generation GM Fairfax* Middle Low er Nov 2015 Jan 2016

GM Chevrolet Spark Next generation GM South Korea Small Low er Import Oct 2015

GM Chevrolet Volt Next generation GM Hamtramck Luxury Low er Jul 2015 Oct 2015

Honda Acura NSX New vehicle Honda Marysville PMC Luxury Sport Aug 2015 Oct 2015

Honda Honda Civic Next generation Honda Alliston 1 Small Upper Aug 2015 Oct 2015

Honda Honda Civic Next generation Honda Alliston 2 Small Upper Sep 2015 Oct 2015

Honda Honda Civic Next generation Honda Greensburg Small Upper Sep 2015 Oct 2015

* Current-generation Malibu continues in Hamtramck until Q2 2016.



Sales start dates in italics are WardAuto estimations

WardsAuto North American Outlook – Part 2Q4 2015/Q1 2016 Product and Plant Actions

Company Brand Series Action Mfr. Assembly Source Segment Production Start Sales Start

Hyundai/Kia Hyundai Elantra Next generation Hyundai South Korea Small Upper Dec 2015 Jan 2016

Hyundai/Kia Kia Optima Next generation KiaWest Point, South Korea

Middle Low er Aug 2015 Oct 2015

Jag.-L.Rover Jaguar XF Next generation Jaguar UK Luxury Middle Import Oct 2015

Mazda Mazda Mazda CX-3 New vehicle Mazda Japan CUV Small Import Q3 2015

Mazda Mazda Mazda CX-9 Next generation Mazda Japan CUV Large Import Oct 2015

Mazda Mazda Mazda5 Next generation Mazda Japan CUV Middle Import Oct 2015

Mitsubishi Mitsubishi L200 Next generation Mitsubishi Thailand Pickup Small Import Oct 2015

Nissan Nissan Titan Next generation Nissan Canton Pickup Large Sep 2015 Nov 2015

Toyota Lexus ES Sourcing change Toyota Georgetow n Luxury Low er Aug 2015 Oct 2015

Toyota Lexus LS Next generation Toyota Japan Luxury Upper Import Oct 2015

Toyota Lexus RX Next generation Toyota Cambridge CUV Luxury Middle Sep 2015 Oct 2015

Toyota Toyota Mirai New Vehicle Toyota Japan Luxury Upper Import Oct 2015

Toyota Toyota Prius Next generation Toyota Japan Middle Upper Import Dec 2015

Toyota Toyota Tacoma Next generation Toyota San Antonio, Tijuana Pickup Small Jul 2015 Oct 2015

Toyota Toyota Yaris Next generation Mazda Salamanca Small Low er Aug 2015 Oct 2015

Volksw agen Audi TT Next generation Volksw agen Hungary Luxury Sport Import Oct 2015



Thank You,

Haig StoddardSenior Industry Analyst, WardsAuto

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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