normative scenarios & why do we need them
TRANSCRIPT
Participatory backcasting
“Dutch-KTH approach”
Olga Kordas,
Kateryna Pereverza,
Oleksii PasichnyiKTH
Research & Society
researchers society
Technology
push
Technology
pull
Tools for complexity studies
• Long term
• Great uncertainties
• Great numberof stakeholders
• Conflicting interests
• Multi dimensional
• Multi sectoral
We need tools to find options to deal with
challenges on our way to sustainability
How to deal with the future?
TIME
EFFICIENCY
2015 2050
System
innovation
Product & process
improvement
1
5
20
Product optimization
Adopted from Leo Jansen (2000)
"Telephone Tower“
in Stockholm
This was one of the main
telephone junctions in
Stockholm between 1887-
1913. About 5000 telephone
lines where connected here.
After that the tower
remained as landmark until
1953 when it was torn down
as a result of a fire.
What’s this?
Forecasting Explorative Backcasting
Predict most
likely future
Explore
alternative futuresAssess feasibility
of desirable future
What
will happen?
What
can happen?
How can a specific
target be reached?
BAU
Forecasting
Backcasting
Sustainable development
& future studies
• SD has a strong future orientation - we need to define
and clarify an attractive sustainable future
• Clear future visions have a strong guiding power
– Man on the Moon
– Millennium Development Goals (MDG)
– City of Curitiba
– etc.
John F. Kennedy "Landing a man on the Moon"
Address to Congress - May 25, 1961
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUXuV7XbZvU
Visions
from Sci-Fi
Neuromancer (1984),
by William Gibson
2001: A Space Odyssey (1968), by Arthur C. Clarke
Fahrenheit 451 (1953),
by Ray Bradbury
Foundation (1951),
by Isaac Asimov
Star Trek's Replicator
The Power of Science Fiction: exploring sci-fi’s
relationship to real-world innovation
Dennis Cheatham // Design Research Theory // fall 2011
Clothing Of The Future
Clothing in The Year 2000
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9eAiy0IGBI
Backcasting
Backcasting: step by step
TIME
EFFICIENCY
2015 2050
VISIONof the
future
Strategic
problem
orientation
1
2
3
Action plan4
5
Defining system boundaries
• What is appropriate time frame(2030, 2050)? Why?
• How many scenarios/visions(1 or several)? Why?
• What scale (local, regional, national)? Why?
• What are main parts of the system.What are system boundaries?
Stakeholders =
companies
expertsknowledge
institutes
societal
organizations
Individuals and organisations,
that can influence issue (topic,
decision) or that can be influenced
by issue (topic, decision)
governments
Not only But also
Why stakeholder participation
is important
• enhanced legitimacy
• context /group specific knowledge
• increased reflexivity /
quality of outcomes
• support for outcomes
(co-ownership)
• learning (mental frameworks)
• accountability
(increased co-responsibility)
Stakeholder grid
inte
rest
power
high
highlow
SubjectsPlayers
(“Movers and shakers”)
Actors / Context Setters
(“Unguided missiles”)
Bystanders / Crowd
(“Dead Wood”)
Source: Eden and Ackermann (1998: 122)
Exercise I
Stakeholder analysis for mobility in Barcelona
1. Identify stakeholders (people, groups, organizations, etc.)
2. Assess power (impact) and interestof stakeholders
3. Identify main conflictand union points fordifferent stakeholders
Stakeholder gridin
tere
st
power
high
highlow
Commuters
Public transport companies
Drivers
Neighbors
Business owners
Government
Road workers
Environmental NGOs
Researchers
Tourists
City development NGOs
Associations of neighbors
Bikers
Advertisement companies
Minority groups
Producers
of transport
Stakeholder grid (example)
inte
rest
power
high
highlow
population municipalitytransportation
companies
tourists
producers
of transport
equipment
employees
service
providers
researchers energy
companies
investors
employers
tourism
companies
police
NGOs
Intensity of stakeholders involvement
Source: P. Brandt et al. (2013)
InformTo provide the public with balanced and objective information to assist
them in understanding the problem, alternatives, opportunities and/or
solutions.
ConsultTo obtain public feedback for decision-makers on analysis, alternatives
and/or decisions.
InvolveTo work directly with the public throughout the process to ensure that
public concerns and aspirations are consistently understood and
considered in decision making processes.
CollaborateTo partner with the public in each aspect of the decision including the
development of alternatives and the identification of the preferred
solution.
Empower To place final decision-making in the hands of the public.
Identifying needs & setting goals
Exercise IIIdentify needs & propose alternative solutions
Problem
Temperature at Bjorn’s
house is too low in cold
season
Proposed solution
He wants to install extra
heater unit
Bjorn needs
• Hot tea
• A cat
• Thermal comfort
• Thermal clothes
• Money
• Take-off clothes
• Service-man
• Insulation
Visioning
Defining and clarifying an attractive sustainable future
• Clear future visions have a strong guiding power
• It forces to specify norms and values(or use some generally accepted)
• Functional criteria should be defined
– Providing full coverage
– ‘Tickable’ (and if possible quantifiable)
The Four System Conditions
Exercise III
Elaborate criteria for the future vision
1. What are good/ relevant criteria for your system in desirable future?
2. Assess elaborated criteriain points [0-5].
3. Select the most valuablecriteria.
4. Make sure theyare ‘tickable’ andquantify them(if possible)
Criteria set (example)
1. Low-environmental impact – kg of (CO2+NOX) per 100 km
2. Accessibility– average time to travel 100 km
3. Safety– total cost of accidents
reimbursement
4. Affordability– average price to travel
5. Energy efficiency – average distance
travelled for 1 kWt-hour
Inventory of drivers
A. Climate change
B. Prices for resources
Y. Demography dynamics
Z. Government policy
Driver analysis
u n ce r t a i n t y
Impact
High
Low
High
Low
To take into
account anywayTo make
sensitivity analysis
Neglect Neglect
trends key uncertainties
Exercise IV
Driver analysis
1. Identify which drivers will mark the future?
Demographics, Political, Economic, Technological, Social /
Cultural etc
2. Assess the level of impact
and uncertainty for each of
the driving force
3. Select key uncertainties
(driver with high impact and
high uncertainty)
Drivers
u n c e r t a i n t y
Impact
High
Low
High
Low
trends key uncertainties
availability of
fossil fuels
technology
development
economic growth
demographic
changes
territory
changes political support
EU
legislations
Generating solutionsUsing different creativity
techniques create several
alternative solutions
Examples of solutions
1. "Comfortable travelling"car rent/pooling, demand-based routing, relocating
2. "Collective
transportation"
3. "Massive collective
transportation"
What Will Clothes Look Like in the Future?
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=taCNp-LeTMs
Solution testing
on robustness
Solution testing
against criteria
Developing pathways
1. What changes are necessary
(C, S, T)?
2. Who (which stakeholders)
are needed?
3. What is appropriate timeframe
for identified changes?
Adjusting future vision allowed!C – culture
S – structure
T – technology
When we can use Backcasting?
• Useful when current trends are not in line with some targets of high importance
• Typically combines quantitative illustrations with qualitative analysis
• Can be eye-opener when it comes to see the need and opportunity for change
• Challenges the trust in forecasts
• Challenges mental barriers forwhat is possible to change
• Challenges the idea of consistencyin scenarios
• Highlights goal-conflicts andconflicts of interests
Höjer, Svenfelt and Wangel, 2012 In: Alm et al, Att utforska framtiden
Backcasting
Backcasting:
from vision to action
TIME
EFFICIENCY
2015 2050
VISIONof the
future
CHARACTERISTICS
Explicitly normative
Participatory
System oriented
Desired futures & changes
(action-oriented)
Combines process, design, analysis
Transdisciplinary
Helpful if institutions / rule system lack
References
• Carlsson-Kanyama, A., Dreborg, K.H., Moll, H.C. & Padovan, D. (2007) Participatory backcasting: a tool for involving
stakeholders in local sustainability planning. Futures, 2008 40: p. 34-36
• Dreborg K.H., 1996. Essence of backcasting. Futures 28 (9), 813–828
• Grin, J. Rotmans, J and Schot, J.W. (2010) Transitions To Sustainable Development – Part 1. New Directions in the Study
of Long Term Transformative Change., New York: Routledge Taylor and Francis Group.
• Höjer M and L-G Mattsson, (2000) Determinism and backcasting in future studies, Futures 32: 613-634.
• Höjer M, A. Gullberg, R. Pettersson(2011a), Backcasting images of the future city-Time and space for sustainable
development in Stockholm." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 78(5): 819-834.
• Holmberg, J. and K. H. Robèrt (2000). "Backcasting: a framework for for strategic planning." International Journal of
Sustainable Development and World Ecology 7(4): 291-308.
• Jansen L (2003) The challenge of sustainable development, Journal of Cleaner Production 11: 231-245.
• Quist J, Vergragt P (2006) Past and future of backcasting: the shift to stakeholder participation and a proposal for a
methodological framework, Futures 38(9): 1027-1045.
• Quist J. (2007) Backasting for a sustainable future: impact after 10 years, PhD thesis, TU Delft, Eburon Academic
Publishers
• Robinson J (1990) Futures under glass: a recipe for people who hate to predict, Futures 22: 820-843.
• Robinson J (2003) Future subjunctive: backcasting as social learning, Futures 35: 839-856.
• Vergragt, P.J. , Quist J., (2011) Backcasting for sustainability: Introduction to the special issue. Technological Forecasting
and Social Change. 78(5): p. 747–755.
Participatory Backcasting Framework
Problem definition,
system boundaries
Stakeholder analysis
Current situationanalysis,
needs analysis
Elaboration of vision
Driver analysisSolutions
development & testing
Backcasting analysis
Preparing presentation
III. Backcasting
I. Problem
orientation
II. Scenario
development
Problem definition
• Define the goal of the study
• Define system boundaries and time frame
Stakeholder analysis
• Identify stakeholders
• Map stakeholders on stakeholder grid
Current situation analysis
• Provide holistic overview of the system
• Identify key problems for sustainability
• Needs analysis
Elaboration of vision
• Elaborate set of criteria to describe vision
• Specify developed criteria (propose measurable indicators to make them ’tickable’)
Driver analysis
• Identify main drivers
• Map drivers on impact/uncertainty plane
• Select key uncertainties and identify trends
Solutions development
• Generate/create solutions
• Evaluate created solutions across developed criteria
• Test solutions against key uncertainties
• Decide on which solution to select (mix is possible)
Backcasting analysis
• Identify what changes (C, S, T) are needed
• Identify how these changes can be achieved
• Identify who (which stakeholders) are needed
• Map proposed changes along the timeline
• Identify drivers and barriers for developed pathway
1 hour
1 hour
1 hour
2 hours
1 hour
3 hours
5 hours
Preparing presentation 2,5 hours
TOTAL 16,5 hours
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Monday
Tuesday
+
Wednesday
Thank you for your attention.
Questions?