nordea kredit investor presentation 2015 q4...2015/12/31  · nordea kredit investor presentation...

20
Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4 Published 22 February, 2016 Nordea Kredit

Upload: others

Post on 25-Jun-2020

6 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4...2015/12/31  · Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4 Published 22 February, 2016 Nordea Kredit Introduction and contact information

Nordea Kredit

Investor Presentation 2015 Q4

Published 22 February, 2016

Nordea Kredit

Page 2: Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4...2015/12/31  · Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4 Published 22 February, 2016 Nordea Kredit Introduction and contact information

Introduction and contact information

This Investor Presentation has been compiled by Nordea Kredit for information

purposes only and offers facts and figures on Nordea Kredit and the mortgage

collateral supporting outstanding covered mortgage bonds and mortgage bonds.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact:

Finn Nicolaisen, First Vice President, Nordea - TALM Exposures,

phone +45 3333 1625

Juho-Pekka Jääskeläinen, Senior Treasury Manager, Nordea - TALM Exposures,

phone +45 3333 1626

Contents:

• Nordea Kredit – in brief

• Ratings and OC

• Loan portfolio

• LTV

2

Page 3: Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4...2015/12/31  · Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4 Published 22 February, 2016 Nordea Kredit Introduction and contact information

Nordea Kredit – in brief I

• Founded in 1993, number of employees (in FTEs) 101 (as per 2015 Q4)

• New issues are covered mortgage bonds (SDROs), exclusively

• All bonds issued by Nordea Kredit are rated AAA (by S&P) and Aaa (by Moody’s)

• Profit before tax 2015, DKK 1,913m and Cost/Income ratio 10.6%

• Mortgage loans at nominal value 2015 Q4: DKK 383.8bn (2015 Q3: DKK 381.3bn)

• Mortgage loans at fair value 2015 Q4: DKK 385.9bn (2015 Q3: DKK 383.0bn)

• Market share 2015 Q4: 15.0% (2015 Q3: 15.0%)

(Mortgage loans at nominal value as a share of all Danish mortgage bank loans)

3

Page 4: Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4...2015/12/31  · Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4 Published 22 February, 2016 Nordea Kredit Introduction and contact information

Nordea Kredit – in brief II

• Weighted average LTV 2015 Q4: 63% (2015 Q3: 63%)

• Total capital ratio at end of 2015: 29.7% and Tier 1 capital ratio 29.7% (excl. transitional rules)

• Match-funded “Pass Through” setup complying with the Danish specific balance

principle

• Late payments by borrowers 2015 Q3: 0.17% (2015 Q2: 0.18%)

(Residential properties and holiday homes, 3½ months after the September 30, 2015 payment date)

• Danish mortgage banks are regulated and supervised by Finanstilsynet

(The Danish FSA)

• All covered bonds issued by Nordea Kredit are ECBC-labeled – see

http://nordeakredit.dk/ - Investor information

4

Page 5: Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4...2015/12/31  · Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4 Published 22 February, 2016 Nordea Kredit Introduction and contact information

Nordea Kredit – ratings and over-collateralisation

OC and CE requirements as set by Moody´s and S&P, respectively TPI leeway and unused uplift as defined by Moody´s and S&P, respectively OC data in the lower right hand box as computed by Nordea Kredit

AAA AAA Aaa Aaa Ratings of issued bonds

S&P Moody´s

4

4 6 7 TPI leeway/Unused uplift

2.69

4.44

0.0

0.0

Required OC / CE for

Aaa and AAA rating, %

CC 2 CC1 CC2 CC 1

CC1: 7.8

CC2: 9.8

OC per Q4 2015, %

5

Page 6: Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4...2015/12/31  · Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4 Published 22 February, 2016 Nordea Kredit Introduction and contact information

Nordea Kredit`s market shares - outstanding loans in per cent

of all Danish mortgage credit loans

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2012 Q42013 Q12013 Q22013 Q32013 Q42014 Q12014 Q22014 Q32014 Q42015 Q12015 Q22015 Q32015 Q4

per

ce

nt

Other properties Private rental housing

Commercial Agriculture

Owner occupied dwellings and holiday homes All segments

-

6

Page 7: Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4...2015/12/31  · Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4 Published 22 February, 2016 Nordea Kredit Introduction and contact information

Nordea Kredit – profit and net new lending

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Pro

fit be

fore

tax

DK

K m

N

et

ne

w le

nd

ing

DK

K b

n

<< Net new lending DKK bn (lhs)

Profit before tax DKK m (rhs) >>

7

Page 8: Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4...2015/12/31  · Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4 Published 22 February, 2016 Nordea Kredit Introduction and contact information

CC I, RO:

DKK 17.1bn, 4.4 %

Nordea Kredit has two capital centers:

• CC I: Mortgage Bonds

(Realkreditobligationer, “RO”)

No open series.

About 66% of the bonds in CC I

are grandfathered covered bonds

according to UCITS/CRD.

• CC II: Covered Mortgage Bonds

(Særligt dækkede realkredit-

obligationer,”SDRO”) are issued

out of CC II (2007 - ).

All bonds in CC II are covered

bonds according to UCITS/CRD.

Nordea Kredit capital centers

CCs I&II, 2015 Q4: DKK 385.9bn (mortgage loans at fair value)

8

CC II, SDRO:

DKK 368.8bn, 95.6 %

Page 9: Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4...2015/12/31  · Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4 Published 22 February, 2016 Nordea Kredit Introduction and contact information

Match-funded setup due to the specific Balance Principle

Investor

Nordea

Kredit

Interest

payment

Interest

payment

Principal

payment

Contribu-

tion fee

Principal

payment

Nordea Kredit complies with the

specific Balance Principle and has a

match-funded “Pass Through” setup.

Nordea Kredit has no prepayment risk

and only negligible interest rate and

foreign exchange risk.

Borrower

9

Page 10: Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4...2015/12/31  · Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4 Published 22 February, 2016 Nordea Kredit Introduction and contact information

Nordea Kredit – loan portfolio split by property categories

10

DKK 257.4bn, 66.7%

DKK 28.5bn, 7.4%

DKK 41.3bn, 10.7%

DKK 48.1bn, 12.5% DKK 10.6bn, 2.7%

Owner occ. dwellings &holiday homes

Private rental housing

Commercial

Agriculture

Other properties

Capital centres I & II, 2015, Q4 at fair value: DKK 385.9bn

Distribution of all loans by property category

Page 11: Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4...2015/12/31  · Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4 Published 22 February, 2016 Nordea Kredit Introduction and contact information

DKK 60.4 bn 17.6%

11

Nordea Kredit – loan portfolio - loan type split

DKK 98.1bn, 25.4%

DKK 54.7bn, 14.2%

DKK 53.0bn, 13.7% DKK 88.1bn, 22.8%

DKK 2.5bn, 0.7%

DKK 3.1bn, 0.8%

DKK 35.4bn, 9.2% DKK 51.0bn, 13.2%

Fixed

Fixed IO

ARM

ARM IO

FRN capped

FRN capped IO

FRN

FRN IO

Capital centres I & II, 2015, Q4 at fair value: DKK 385.9bn

Distribution of all loans by loan type

Page 12: Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4...2015/12/31  · Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4 Published 22 February, 2016 Nordea Kredit Introduction and contact information

Nordea Kredit – loan portfolio - loan type split (Developments from 2014, Q4 - 2015, Q4 – nominal value)

12

88.2bn 23.7%

91.6bn 24.4% 95.4bn

.25.1%

98.bn 25.7%

99.5bn 25.9%

53.2bn 14.3%

53.3bn 14.2%

54.3bn 14.3%

55.0bn 14.4%

55.1bn 14.3%

28.9bn 7.8%

24.2bn 6.4%

22.0bn 5.8%

19.4bn 5.1%

16.5bn 4.3%

48.2bn 13.0% 40.1bn

10.7% 36.7bn 9.7%

32.5bn 8.5%

26.1bn 6.8%

27.2bn 7.3% 31.6bn

8.4% 33.6bn 8.8%

33.8bn 8.8% 35.1bn

9.1%

52.7bn 14.2%

56.6bn 15.1%

59.1bn 15.6%

59.5bn 15.6% 59.8bn

15.6%

28.4bn 7.6%

30.6bn 8.2%

31.7bn 8.4%

34.6bn 9.1%

37.8bn 9.9%

45.3bn 12.2%

47.6bn 12.7%

47.0bn 12.4%

48.8bn 12.8%

54.1bn 14.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015Fixed rate - amort Fixed rate - IO ARMs 1-2 years - amort ARMs 1-2 years - IO

ARMs 3-10 years - amort ARMs 3-10 years - IO Cita, Cibor, cap - amort Cita, Cibor, cap - IO

59.8%

40.2%

59.9%

40.1%

60.7%

39.3%

61.5%

38.5%

62.1%

37.9%

Page 13: Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4...2015/12/31  · Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4 Published 22 February, 2016 Nordea Kredit Introduction and contact information

DKK 60.4 bn 17.6%

13

DKK 80.6bn, 31.3%

DKK 46.5bn, 18.0%

DKK 35.5bn, 13.8%

DKK 69.5bn, 27.0%

DKK 2.3bn, 0.9%

DKK 2.9bn, 1.1%

DKK 7.2bn, 2.8%

DKK 13.0bn, 5.1%

Fixed

Fixed IO

ARM

ARM IO

FRN capped

FRN capped IO

FRN

FRN IO

Owner occupied dwellings and holiday homes, capital centres I & II, 2015, Q4 at fair value: DKK 257.4bn

Distribution of loans by loan type

Nordea Kredit – loan type split for owner occupied dwellings

Page 14: Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4...2015/12/31  · Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4 Published 22 February, 2016 Nordea Kredit Introduction and contact information

DKK 17.1bn, 4.4%*

DKK 10.4bn, 4.0%** (0.58m citizens – 10.3%)

DKK 89.2bn, 23.1%*

DKK 56.1bn, 21.8%** (1.28m citizens – 22.7%)

DKK 61.3bn, 15.9%*

DKK 35.0bn, 13.6%** (1.21m citizens – 21.3%) DKK 73.1bn, 18.9%*

DKK 50.2bn, 19.5 %** (0.82m citizens – 14.5%)

* All segments

** Owner occupied dwellings and holiday homes

Total number of citizens 5.7m, April 1, 2015 – Source: Statistics Denmark

North

Denmark

Region

Central

Denmark

Region

South

Denmark

Region Region

Zealand

Capital

Region of

Denmark

DKK 145.1bn, 37.7%*

DKK 105.7bn, 41.1%** (1.77m citizens – 31.2%)

14

Capital centres I & II, 2015, Q4 at fair value: All property categories: DKK 385.9bn

Owner occupied dwellings & holiday homes: DKK 257.4bn

Geographical distribution by Danish regions

Nordea Kredit - loans by Danish regions and property

categories

Page 15: Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4...2015/12/31  · Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4 Published 22 February, 2016 Nordea Kredit Introduction and contact information

Asset quality - late payments by borrowers, 2015 Q3

0,00

0,10

0,20

0,30

0,40

0,50

0,60

0,70

200

5Q

4

200

6Q

2

200

6Q

4

200

7Q

2

200

7Q

4

200

8Q

2

200

8Q

4

200

9Q

2

200

9Q

4

201

0Q

2

201

0Q

4

201

1Q

2

2011Q

4

201

2Q

2

201

2Q

4

201

3Q

2

201

3Q

4

201

4Q

2

201

4Q

4

201

5Q

2p

er

ce

nt

Owner occupied dwellings and holiday homes, arrears as a percentage of the Q3, 2015 scheduled payments - 3½ months after due date

All mortgage banks* Nordea Kredit

All mortgage

banks 0.21%

(last 0.24%)

Nordea Kredit 0.17%

(last 0.18%)

*) Including Nordea Kredit

15

Page 16: Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4...2015/12/31  · Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4 Published 22 February, 2016 Nordea Kredit Introduction and contact information

Nordea Bank Danmark takes “first losses” on Nordea Kredit loans according to the

table below:

Property type Guarantee period * Guarantee level **

Owner occupied dwellings Lifetime of loan 25 per cent

Holiday homes Lifetime of loan 25 per cent

Subsidized property Lifetime of loan 10 per cent

Housing for youth/elderly Lifetime of loan 10 per cent

Agricultural property Lifetime of loan 25 per cent

Commercial property Lifetime of loan 25 per cent

Asset quality - loss guarantee by Nordea Bank Danmark

*) The guarantee period starts when a loan is disbursed or remortgaged. The former guarantee period of 5 or 10

years, respectively was changed to the lifetime of the loans on December 9, 2013.

**) As a percentage of the original principal – disregarding all amortisation

-The guarantee amount is not reduced during the guarantee period, but cannot exceed the outstanding debt.

-By the end of Q4 2015 loss guarantees from Nordea Bank comprised loans totalling DKK 357.6bn. The actual

loss guarantees amounted to DKK 100.0bn.

16

Page 17: Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4...2015/12/31  · Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4 Published 22 February, 2016 Nordea Kredit Introduction and contact information

Net losses in per cent of mortgage loans at nominal value

0,00%

0,20%

0,40%

0,60%

0,80%

1,00%

0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

350.000

400.000

450.000

500.000

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

Lo

sse

s %

of m

ortg

age

loa

ns, n

om

ina

l va

lue

M

ort

ga

ge

lo

an

s n

om

ina

l va

lue

, D

KK

m

Mortgage loans at nominal value

Net loss for the year in per cent of mortgageloans at nominal value (rhs)

17

Page 20: Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4...2015/12/31  · Nordea Kredit Investor Presentation 2015 Q4 Published 22 February, 2016 Nordea Kredit Introduction and contact information

DISCLAIMER – IMPORTANT NOTICE

This presentation and any information contained in this presentation or supplied in connection therewith, whether in writing or not, are provided for information purposes

only. Nordea Bank AB (publ) including its subsidiaries (“Nordea”) is not acting as your financial adviser or in any other fiduciary capacity and this presentation should

not be treated as if Nordea is giving investment advice.

This presentation and any information contained in this presentation or supplied in connection therewith, whether in writing or not, do not constitute or form a part of,

and should not be construed as, an offer, recommendation, advertisement of an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase any securities of any Nordea Group

company anywhere in the world or a solicitation of any such offer, and shall neither form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any offer or commitment

whatsoever.

Information contained in this presentation is derived from publicly available sources which Nordea believes are reliable, and includes market information based on data

provided by third party sources identified herein and estimates, assessments, adjustments and judgments that are based on Nordea's experience and familiarity with

the sectors in which it operates. Even though Nordea believes the third party sources to be reliable no independent verification has been made, consequently the

correctness and completeness in the information can not be guaranteed. There is no assurance that such estimates, assessments and judgments are the most

appropriate for making determinations relating to market information or that market information prepared by other sources wil l not differ materially from the market

information included herein. This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views with respect to certain future events and

potential financial performance. Although Nordea believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be

given that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those set out in the forward-looking statements as a result

of various factors. Important factors that may cause such a difference for Nordea include, but are not limited to: (i) the macroeconomic development, (ii) change in the

competitive climate, (iii) change in interest rate and foreign exchange rate levels and (iv) change in the regulatory environment and other governmental actions. This

presentation does not imply that Nordea has undertaken to revise these forward-looking statements, beyond what is required by applicable law or applicable stock

exchange regulations if and when circumstances arise that will lead to changes compared to the date when these statements were provided.

Neither Nordea nor any of its directors, officers, employees or advisors nor any other person makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the

accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this presentation. Neither Nordea nor any its directors, officers, employees or advisors nor any other person

shall have any liability whatsoever for loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of this presentation.

This presentation (i) does not and will not constitute or include an invitation to tender for purchase or sale, an advertisement or an offer of any securities in

circumstances which could qualify as a public offer (oferta pública) or as a private offer (oferta particular) pursuant to the Portuguese Securities Code (Código dos

Valores Mobiliários) enacted by Decree Law no. 486/99, of 13 November, and published by Decree Law no. 357-A/2007 of 31 October, as amended from time to time

and (ii) complies with all applicable laws and regulations of the Republic of Portugal.

You may not distribute this presentation, in whole or part, without our prior express written permission. This presentation is not for release, directly or indirectly, in or

into Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Japan or the United States of America.

.

20