non-treaty storage agreement “introduction to operations and the non treaty storage scenarios”...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: NON-TREATY STORAGE AGREEMENT “Introduction to Operations and the Non Treaty Storage Scenarios” Presenter: Jim Gaspard](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062423/5697bffb1a28abf838cc11f8/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
NON-TREATY STORAGE AGREEMENT
“Introduction to Operations and the Non Treaty Storage Scenarios”
Presenter: Jim Gaspard
![Page 2: NON-TREATY STORAGE AGREEMENT “Introduction to Operations and the Non Treaty Storage Scenarios” Presenter: Jim Gaspard](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062423/5697bffb1a28abf838cc11f8/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Content:
• Overview of Treaty/Non-Treaty• Modifications to Operation
– Supplemental Agreements– Non-Treaty Storage Operations
• Non-Treaty Scenarios• System Modeling• Modeling Output
• Climate Change
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Definitions - Flow
• Flow:– cfs: cubic feet per second– kcfs: 1000’s of cubic feet per
second. • Mica Unit discharge: 11 kcfs.• Revelstoke Unit discharge: 15 kcfs.
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Definitions - Volume
• Reservoir Storage Volume:– MAF: Million Acre Feet. Volume of water in
1 million acres, 1 foot thick. • 504 kcfs flowing for a 24 hr period• Top 10 feet at Kinbasket• Top 8 feet at Arrow
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WHAT IS THE NON-TREATY STORAGE AGREEMENT?
A commercial agreement between BC Hydro and Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) that provides further coordination of Kinbasket and Arrow reservoir, beyond that which is provided by the Columbia River Treaty.
Non-Treaty Storage Agreement
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6
Treaty vs. Non-Treaty
Treaty:– International Treaty – Entities: BC Hydro (BCH), Bonneville Power
Administration (BPA) and the US Army Corp of Engineers (COE)
– 15.5 million acre feet (MAF) of storage operated under a set of rules (at Mica, Arrow, and Duncan)
Non-Treaty Storage Agreement:– Bilateral agreement between BCH and BPA– An enabling agreement that provides for up to 5 MAF of
storage operated by mutual agreement (at Mica, but also impacts Arrow)
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Treaty Storage (7.0 MAF)
Non-Treaty Storage (5.0 MAF)
Dead Storage (8.0 MAF)
Mica Dam
Treaty Storage (7.1 MAF)
Arrow Dam
7
Storage at Mica and Arrow
Arrow Reservoir
Kinbasket Reservoir
1 MAF = top 10 feet at Kinbasket
1 MAF = top 8 feet at Arrow
Unusable Storage(8.0 MAF)
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Treaty Operations (modeled): Kinbasket Reservoir
2320.0
2340.0
2360.0
2380.0
2400.0
2420.0
2440.0
2460.0
2480.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Ele
vati
on
(F
eet)
10% Average 90%Based on AOP 2012, with critical supplemental agreements, and
Mica Flexibility.
2472 feet
2386 feet
2360 feet
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Treaty Operations (modeled): Arrow Reservoir
1380.0
1390.0
1400.0
1410.0
1420.0
1430.0
1440.0
1450.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Ele
vati
on
(F
eet)
10% Average 90%
Flood Control Elevation
1413 feet
1437 feet
1403 feet
Based on AOP 2012, with critical supplemental agreements, and
Mica Flexibility.
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0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Re
lea
se
fo
r A
rro
w (
cfs
)
Average (with 10th and 90th Range)
Treaty Operations (modeled): Arrow Releases
Based on AOP 2012, with critical supplemental agreements, and
Mica Flexibility.
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Modifications to OperationsSupplemental Agreements
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Supplemental Agreements
• A mutual agreement between BCH and BPA/COE to:– Adjust the level of storage in a reservoir,
or– Adjust flows at Arrow
• Purpose:– To increase power benefits, and – Improve the non-power outcome in Mica
and/or Arrow.
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Summer Storage Agreement (2006)
Arrow Reservoir level Comparison (ft)
1405
1410
1415
1420
1425
1430
1435
1440
1445
06-0
5-26
06-0
6-09
06-0
6-23
06-0
7-07
06-0
7-21
06-0
8-04
06-0
8-18
06-0
9-01
06-0
9-15
With Agreement
Without AgreementPeak = 1435 ft
Peak = 1443 ft
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Modifications to OperationsNon-Treaty Storage Operations
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Storage Operation- Initial -
• Summer: Treaty storage typically filled to at/near full
Mica Discharge
Arrow Discharge
Non-Treaty Storage – Fall/Winter Draft
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Storage Operation- Winter Draft -
• Late Winter Treaty storage drafted to near empty.
Mica Discharge
Arrow Discharge
Still significant water at Kinbasket.
Non-Treaty Storage – Fall/Winter Draft
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Storage Operation- Utilize Flex -
• BCH can draft more than Specified Treaty Q from Mica (Flex).
Mica Discharge
Arrow Discharge
Flood Control Elevation
Non-Treaty Storage Seasonal Operation
Still significant water at Kinbasket.
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Storage Operation- NTSA Release -
• NTSA release facilitates greater draft at Mica
Mica Discharge+NT Discharge
Arrow Discharge+ NT Discharge
Flood Control Elevation
Draft benefit of NTSA
Non-Treaty Storage Seasonal Operation
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Non-Treaty Scenarios
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Modeling Process
Proposed Non-Treaty
Storage Scenarios
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21
Non-Treaty Storage Utilization Scenarios
Four different strategies for utilizing Non-Treaty Storage:
• Scenario A: High Potential Utilization (4.5 MAF Max)• Scenario B: Mod Potential Utilization (3.0 MAF Max)• Scenario C: Low Potential Utilization (2.0 MAF Max)• Scenario D: No Utilization
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22
Non-Treaty Storage Utilization Scenarios
• Scenario A: (4.5 MAF max utilization)– Approximates operation of Non-Treaty Storage
under the 1990 Agreement– Provides similar flexibility to that which was modeled
in the Columbia Water Use Plan
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23
Non-Treaty Storage Utilization Scenarios
• Scenario B: (3.0 MAF max utilization)– BPA proposed operation – Flexibility for release of additional water in summer
to aid salmon out-migration in the US Columbia• 0.5 MAF release in May/June during dry years• Return of storage in upcoming year (if above
average inflows)
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24
Non-Treaty Storage Utilization Scenarios
• Scenario C: (2.0 MAF max utilization)– Restrictive operation of Non-Treaty Storage– Considered to be low end volume that will:
• Facilitate fall/winter draft at Kinbasket to serve system load.
• Facilitate key fisheries/power benefit in spring/summer, and
• Provide flexibility to manage Kinbasket Reservoir, in exceptionally high inflow years.
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25
Non-Treaty Storage Utilization Scenarios
• Scenario D: (no utilization of NTS)– Approximates operation that would be dictated by
the Treaty
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26
Scenario A (4.5 MAF Maximum Utilized)
BCH Non-Treaty Storage (Additional draft at Mica+Arrow due to NTSA)
(2,500)
(2,000)
(1,500)
(1,000)
(500)
-
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Ac
co
un
t D
raft
(k
sfd
)
10%
Average:
90%
0
10
20
30
40
50
Ad
dit
ion
al d
raft
(f
eet)
BCH Non-Treaty Storage(Additional draft at Mica + Arrow due to release of Non-Treaty Storage)
Average: 14 feet
Outlier: 30 feet
Ad
dit
ion
al D
raft
(M
AF
)0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
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27
Scenario C (2.0 MAF Maximum Utilized)
BCH Non-Treaty Storage (Additional draft at Mica+Arrow due to NTSA)
(2,500)
(2,000)
(1,500)
(1,000)
(500)
-
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Acc
ou
nt
Dra
ft (
ksfd
)
10%
Average:
90%
0
10
20
30
40
50
Ad
dit
ion
al d
raft
(f
eet)
BCH Non-Treaty Storage(Additional draft at Mica + Arrow due to release of Non-Treaty Storage)
Outlier: 20 feet
Average: 10 feet
Ad
dit
ion
al D
raft
(M
AF
)
0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
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System Modeling
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Modeling Process
Proposed Non-Treaty
Storage Scenarios
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30
System Modeling Overview
• System modeling:– Using standard computer models used in
BC Hydro long term planning.• HYSIM (60 year, monthly time-step simulation)• GOM (10 year, bi-hourly simulation)
– Outputs: Revelstoke Release and Reservoir
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31
System Modeling Overview
• Modeling provides:– Economic optimal operation of BC Hydro system,
given constraints.• Modeling does not provide:
– Wind integration impacts to operations– Operational adjustments that may be made to
manage non-power issues, including:• Managing flood control events.
• Enhancing Arrow Soft Constraints or other system objectives
• Managing non-power issues in other basins.
• Implementing discretionary supplemental agreements, for power or non-power benefit.
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Modeling Output
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Modeling Process
Proposed Non-Treaty
Storage Scenarios
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Kinbasket Reservoir: Scenario D (No NTS usage)
2320.0
2340.0
2360.0
2380.0
2400.0
2420.0
2440.0
2460.0
2480.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Ele
vati
on
(F
eet)
10% Average 90%
Based on AOP 2012, with critical supplemental agreements.
2472 feet
2386 feet
2360 feet
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2320.0
2340.0
2360.0
2380.0
2400.0
2420.0
2440.0
2460.0
2480.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Acc
ou
nt
Dra
ft (
ksfd
)
10% Average 90%
Kinbasket Reservoir: Scenario A (4.5 MAF NTS use possible)
Based on AOP 2012, with critical supplemental agreements.
2467 feet
2369 feet
2336 feet
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2320.0
2340.0
2360.0
2380.0
2400.0
2420.0
2440.0
2460.0
2480.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Ele
vati
on
(F
ee
t)
10% Average 90%
2320.0
2340.0
2360.0
2380.0
2400.0
2420.0
2440.0
2460.0
2480.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Acc
ou
nt
Dra
ft (
ksfd
)
10% Average 90%
Kinbasket Reservoir: Key Differences
Non-Treaty usage will draft more in the
Fall/Winter
Non-Treaty usage will allow reduced full pool
levels at Kinbasket
No Usage
4.5 MAF Scenario
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Arrow Reservoir: Scenario D (No NTS usage)
1380.0
1390.0
1400.0
1410.0
1420.0
1430.0
1440.0
1450.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Ele
vati
on
(F
eet)
10% Average 90%
Flood Control Elevation
Based on AOP 2012, with critical supplemental agreements.
1413 feet
1437 feet
1403 feet
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1380.0
1390.0
1400.0
1410.0
1420.0
1430.0
1440.0
1450.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Acc
ou
nt
Dra
ft (
ksfd
)
10% Average 90%
Arrow Reservoir: Scenario A (4.5 MAF NTS use possible)
Flood Control Elevation
Based on AOP 2012, with critical supplemental agreements.
1407 feet
1437 feet
1397 feet
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1380.0
1390.0
1400.0
1410.0
1420.0
1430.0
1440.0
1450.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Acc
ou
nt
Dra
ft (
ks
fd)
10% Average 90%
Arrow Reservoir: Key Differences
1380.0
1390.0
1400.0
1410.0
1420.0
1430.0
1440.0
1450.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Ele
vati
on
(F
eet
)
10% Average 90%
Non-Treaty usage will draft more in the fall
Non-Treaty usage will result in lower elevation in
March, with more rapid rise across the freshet
No Usage
4.5 MAF Scenario
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0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Acc
ou
nt
Dra
ft (
ksfd
)
Average (with 10th and 90th Range)
Arrow Releases
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Re
lea
se
fo
r A
rro
w (
cfs
)
Average (with 10th and 90th Range)
No NTS Usage
4.5 MAF Usage
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Climate Change
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42
Impacts of Climate Change on Hydro Systems
• Changes the annual volume of inflows.
• Shifts in timing of the runoff • Changes in Electricity Demand• Greater potential for extreme
events (drought, floods, dam safety design)
• Biodiversity
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BC Hydro Climate Change Work:
• BCH is a founding partner in the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC)– Mission: To quantify the impacts of
climate change and variability on the physical environment in Pacific North America.
– 4 year research plan
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44
PCIC early general findings
+4°+3°
+5°
+3°
+3°
+3°
-10%-10%
+10%
+10%
+10%
+25%
Precipitation(for 2050’s from 2007 Overview Study)
Mean temperature(for 2050’s from 2007 Overview Study)
S U M M E R
W I N T E R
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45
Columbia Mountains - Mica
Potential Impacts on Hydrology
Inflo
ws
(cub
ic m
eter
s pe
r sec
ond)
1984 - 20072008 Inflow yearHistorical median
Legend
Freshet peak flows potentially increased
Summer low flows likely decreased
Spring runoff (freshet) starts earlier
1:10A 1:10 indicates the annual peak flow that can be expected to occur once on average, every 10 years
Inflow years 1984 - 20072008 Inflow yearHistorical medianReturn period frequency for annual peak flowsFor example:
Legend
1:2
1:10
1:100
1:50