non-resident enrollment growth in the university of california: issues and answers robert cox...
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Non-Resident Enrollment Growth in the University of California:
Issues and Answers
Robert CoxUniversity of California, Los Angeles
California Association for Institutional ResearchSan Francisco November 4, 2015
A Big Story – Still Unfolding• Openness to ideas and talent from around the nation and the
world is not only a core value for the (public) research university – it is a fundamental condition for doing business effectively
• In graduate degree programs high levels of non-resident enrollment are required and expected at UC campuses
• But the new big story for UC is about non-resident enrollment growth at the undergraduate level
• It is a story about rapid growth of historic magnitude and significance – and whether this growth can be sustained
Issues and Answers• Revenue from undergraduate non-residents offsets some of the massive
withdrawal of state funding from the UC over the past two decades• But this is an answer that raises plenty of new issues and questions – for which
there are no easy answers• It raises fundamental questions about the nature of the compact or relationship
between the UC and the State of California• Degree of alignment with the mission and goals of the UC?• Degree of alignment with the needs of the public and the people of California?• Degree of alignment with the expressed (political) will of the people of California?
• It raises questions about enrollment growth at the margin that is testing the limits of the capacity of the UC to provide a high quality educational product and experience for all students
• What is the optimum or most-appropriate balance between resident and non-resident undergraduate enrollment?
• Is the differential between resident and non-resident costs justifiable? Is it ‘healthy’ for the university community? Is it sustainable?
Issues and Answers
UC is addressing mounting financial pressures on higher education in a variety of ways
Cost cutting and restructuring (e.g. UCOP, UCB)Balance sheet initiatives (e.g. STIP/TRIP)Financial upgrades (e.g. returns on investments)AND… Expanding other revenue sources, especially:
• Philanthropy; private donations (e.g. the UCLA Campaign)• Raising the base tuition that everyone pays (formerly ‘FEES’)• AND… Increasing NRST – Non-Resident Supplemental Tuition
A historic crossing-point in 2011-12 between revenues received from State support and student tuition revenue
Issues and Answers
Transition from an ‘If You Build It…’ to an ‘Enrollment Management’ mindset and organizational regime
New skills required to identify and recruit qualified and competitive non-residents who can and will accept UC offers, persist, and succeed
Campus planning efforts and system-wide ‘comparability’ standards
Opening freshman access to the global community at this moment in history – in particular the history of modern China – is making the most of an historic opportunity
But we must balance risks of enrolling more international and domestic non-residents
And maintain high CCC transfer access (also a pathway to UC for many internationals)
The Problem of Balanced Growth• Rapid growth disrupts established patterns and ratios
Adding non-residents while striving to maintain levels of California Resident enrollment
• This leads to rapid growth in total UG enrollment • And troubles with State Government as the proportions change
Adding undergraduates but not graduate students • This leads to troubles in staffing discussion sections
Adding new freshmen but not new transfers• This leads to disproportionate growth in LD instruction
The shifting preferences of undergraduates in general and the new non-residents in particular
• Disparate rates of growth in teaching workload by academic unit
LAST NOT LEAST: Adding students but not permanent faculty
Tuition Wedge and Turbulent Times• Circumstances driving a widening wedge between the costs of
attendance for California Residents and Non-Residents
A challenge to the distinctive ‘UC Model’ – premised on providing opportunity for students and families at all income levels
And a sudden, staggering reliance on NRST to pay the bills
• Turbulent relations with the Governor and the LegislatureThe revenue answer becomes the issueCalls for correction and a probing audit of UC enrollment practicesA settlement with the Governor… and an offer from the Legislature
• First hold strictly to Cal Resident targets as negotiations proceed• Now add ten thousand California Residents in a hurry• New rules – and contingencies – are built-in to prospective growth funding
• Campus incentives contrasted with UC System funding corrections Tuition-driven ‘Funding Streams’ and State-support-driven ‘Rebenching’
Trends in Graduate and UndergraduateNon-Resident Enrollment over 30+ Years
Moderate graduate growth in recent years extends a smooth long-term trajectory
A much smaller undergraduate non-resident component until just a few years ago – but now a sudden surge
An exhibit borrowed from UCOP Budget and Planning shows how this surge fits-in with the relative stability in California Resident enrollment that it has allowed the UC to maintain
But there has been a massive shift in the undergraduate / graduate student ratio – an important change that impacts the capacity to deliver high quality undergraduate education
The ‘UC Model’ and the ChallengeKudos on UC contributions to civic responsibility and broad access from publications like the Washington MonthlyKudos on social mobility from ‘The Upshot’ (New York Times)
The Pell Grant MetricMemorialized by IRAP, widely cited by the President and CFO
Note: Annual UC Accountability Reports and Budgets for Current Operations (available online) are bursting with information on these topics; the Budgets contain valuable extended discussions of UC funding and fee history
Need-based aid for UC undergraduates is extensiveAbout 30% of all base tuition revenue is returned to students in aidBlue & Gold Plan sets ZERO tuition for over 70,000 UC undergraduatesMiddle-Class Scholarship and other Programs
The ‘UC Model’ and the Challenge• Non-Residents pay much higher total tuition• In 2015-16 all undergraduates are charged $11,220 for base tuition – the
same charge every year since 2011-12• But Non-Residents will be charged an additional $24,708 – up 8% from
2014-15 – and pay a total of $35,928 for exactly the same set of educational services that UC provides to California Residents
• Yet many strong students are eager to accept our offer at that price• This is a testament to the perceived quality of a UC education
• At the same time, however, it places negative selective pressure on potential non-resident students from families without ample means
• A striking contrast to and departure from the ‘UC Model’ and …• A challenge to enrollment management efforts in working against
cleavage between rich and poor by forming contingents of talented non-residents from families all along the income spectrum
Why Do The Applications Keep Coming?
• The time-tested strength of the ‘CALIFORNIA’ brand surely has something to do with it
• It may be hot and dry here now, and we are not without other problems, but for college applications it seems that the brand is heat-resistant
• Favorable misperceptions or overestimations of UC might play a part
• …Or misunderstandings of what student life in the UC is all about
Why Do The Applications Keep Coming?All joking aside, however, I believe it ultimately comes down to sober assessment of the quality and value of a UC undergraduate education on the part of well-informed parents and students all across the nation and the world
The rise to prominence of national ranking schemes and global league tables for higher education institutions has its down sides, of course, but it has also put much more information at the fingertips of decision-makers everywhere
Then too, there is lack of capacity in elite institutions to absorb growing populations of highly qualified students -- and an evident lack of superior educational alternatives in one or another state or national context – be it Texas, New York, or nations overseas
But can these new high levels of non-resident enrollment and high rates of growth in non-resident demand be sustained?
In the face of rising non-resident tuition and other costs of attendance?In the face of reduced access to financial aid for non-resident families of modest means?Given political stress and pressures on capacity and program quality in the UC iteslf?
Charting How Much Growth and Where
• Non-resident enrollment growth drives total enrollment growth at the undergraduate level -- Changes 2010-11 to estimated 2015-16
• UCB, UCLA and UCSD have taken the lead, with each campus adding 3,700 to 3,900 non-residents in just the past four years
• UCI and UCD are rising rapidly now
• UCB and UCSD have shed some California Residents along the way
• Material from the UC ‘Statistical Summary’ shows that patterns of domestic and international non-resident enrollment growth over more than three decades (from Fall 1980) are very different – the international participation surge is quite recent
• Similar differences appear in patterns of domestic and international non-resident applications for freshman admission over the past two decades (from Fall 1995)
Tracking Cohorts and Impacts on Academic Program Commitments at UCLA
• A strategic pivot at UCLA from 2012 forward toward development of demand from domestic non-residents -- and toward a more balanced distribution of internationals by country of origin
• Population and teaching workload pressures are increasing rapidly overall, but unevenly across academic departments -- Examples
• Disproportionate growth of majors and course enrollments in the sciences, mathematics, and economics are driven to a considerable extent by increased international participation
• Also: A quick comparison of academic outcomes for California Residents, domestic non-residents, and international non-residents
California Domestic InternationalResident Non-Resident Non-Resident All
HS 1 4,132 931 618 5,681 HS 2 4,120 809 632 5,561 HS 3 4,009 742 574 5,325 HS 4 3,700 439 780 4,919 HS + 949 39 103 1,091
TR 1 2,555 82 470 3,107 TR 2 2,498 70 421 2,989 TR + 805 9 88 902
SUM 22,768 3,121 3,686 29,575
Fall 2015 Undergraduate Headcount at UCLAby Cohort and Residency Status
10-11 percent 10-11 14-15 to 14-15 change
ENGLISH 1,039 838 (201) (19) LINGUISTICS 303 405 102 34 PHILOSOPHY 325 270 (55) (17)
ECOLOGY & EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY 1,289 1,800 511 40 PSYCHOLOGY 2,514 3,101 587 23
CHEMISTRY & BIOCHEMISTRY 1,193 1,359 166 14 MATHEMATICS 962 1,494 532 55 PHYSICS & ASTRONOMY 246 450 204 83 STATISTICS 81 236 155 190
ANTHROPOLOGY 688 674 (14) (2) ECONOMICS 1,874 2,927 1,054 56 HISTORY 1,046 742 (304) (29) POLITICAL SCIENCE 1,630 1,557 (72) (4) SOCIOLOGY 772 1,026 255 33
COLLEGE TOTAL 20,538 24,162 3,624 18
HUMANITIES TOTAL 2,871 2,550 (321) (11) LIFE SCIENCES TOTAL 6,555 8,225 1,670 25 PHYSICAL SCIENCES TOTAL 2,768 3,882 1,114 40 SOCIAL SCIENCES TOTAL 7,482 8,625 1,143 15
Undergraduate Declared MajorsSelected Acadedmic Units at UCLA -- 2010-11 to 2014-15
10-11 percent 10-11 14-15 to 14-15 change
ENGLISH 274 273 (1) (0) LINGUISTICS 173 249 76 44 PHILOSOPHY 260 284 24 9
ECOLOGY & EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY 9 33 24 267 PSYCHOLOGY 129 241 112 86
CHEMISTRY & BIOCHEMISTRY 1,052 1,169 117 11 MATHEMATICS 987 1,275 288 29 PHYSICS & ASTRONOMY 931 1,063 132 14 STATISTICS 224 319 95 43
ANTHROPOLOGY 243 281 38 16 ECONOMICS 262 428 166 64 HISTORY 529 499 (30) (6) POLITICAL SCIENCE 356 358 3 1 SOCIOLOGY 160 216 56 35
COLLEGE TOTAL 10,798 13,159 2,361 22
HUMANITIES TOTAL 2,498 3,088 590 24 LIFE SCIENCES TOTAL 1,126 1,654 529 47 PHYSICAL SCIENCES TOTAL 3,636 4,371 735 20 SOCIAL SCIENCES TOTAL 2,143 2,442 300 14
FTE Students in Lower Division CoursesSelected Acadedmic Units at UCLA -- 2010-11 to 2014-15
10-11 percent 10-11 14-15 to 14-15 change
ENGLISH 578 425 (153) (27) LINGUISTICS 109 149 39 36 PHILOSOPHY 187 207 20 11
ECOLOGY & EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY 278 363 85 31 PSYCHOLOGY 1,076 1,299 223 21
CHEMISTRY & BIOCHEMISTRY 405 457 52 13 MATHEMATICS 310 510 200 64 PHYSICS & ASTRONOMY 93 154 62 67 STATISTICS 156 225 69 45
ANTHROPOLOGY 413 479 65 16 ECONOMICS 508 712 204 40 HISTORY 687 519 (168) (24) POLITICAL SCIENCE 604 630 27 4 SOCIOLOGY 481 487 6 1
COLLEGE TOTAL 9,243 10,133 890 -
HUMANITIES TOTAL 1,965 1,828 (138) (7) LIFE SCIENCES TOTAL 2,129 2,399 271 13 PHYSICAL SCIENCES TOTAL 1,050 1,446 396 38 SOCIAL SCIENCES TOTAL 3,821 4,045 224 6
FTE Students in Upper Division CoursesSelected Acadedmic Units at UCLA -- 2010-11 to 2014-15
Entering a New ‘Post-Non-Resident’ StageWith Pictures … and with Tongue in Cheek!
• A brief history of the Committee of Two• And an added word from the excluded middle: The
Legislature Speaks• $25 million offer for plus 5,000 Cal Residents• But not on trust – pre-verification required• Some security in funding over the next four years – but an
uncertain pathway beyond
• And then finally – wrapping up on a cautionary note – an illustration of the current extent of dependence on non-resident revenue throughout the UC system
The Non-Resident Revenue Stream
• UC stands to collect about $2.150 billion in base tuition this year, up from $1.632 billion in 2010-11
• Non-Residents will make up 15% of the population and pay about 15% of base tuition, or $325 million
• But they will also pay $716 million in NRST – up from $209 million in 2010-11 – for a total contribution of $1.042 billion in 2015-16
The Non-Resident Revenue Stream
• All told, UC stands to collect $2.866 billion in GROSS base tuition + NRST in 2015-16, of which the $1.042 billion contributed by Non-Residents constitutes 36%
• Taking into account the 30% of base tuition revenue that is returned to students in financial aid, overall NET base tuition + NRST will be $2.221 billion – of which Non-Residents will contribute $994 million, or 43%
• At campuses where Non-Residents account for more than 20% of the population, they contribute more than 40% of GROSS and 50% of NET combined tuition revenue
Non-Resident Enrollment Growth in the University of California:
Issues and Answers
Robert CoxUniversity of California, Los Angeles
California Association for Institutional ResearchSan Francisco November 4, 2015