noaa national weather service’s future in the digital age brig. gen. david l. johnson, usaf (ret)...
TRANSCRIPT
NOAA National Weather Service’sFuture in the Digital Age
NOAA National Weather Service’sFuture in the Digital Age
Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, USAF (Ret)
NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services & National Weather Service Director
National Weather Association 31st Annual Meeting
October 16, 2006
Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, USAF (Ret)
NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services & National Weather Service Director
National Weather Association 31st Annual Meeting
October 16, 2006
Presentation OverviewPresentation Overview
• NOAA Vision and Mission Goals
• NWS Services Evolution
• The Way Forward “A Phase of Discovery”
• Aviation Weather Services Modernization and Restructuring
• IT Consolidation Initiative
• Closing Thoughts
• NOAA Vision and Mission Goals
• NWS Services Evolution
• The Way Forward “A Phase of Discovery”
• Aviation Weather Services Modernization and Restructuring
• IT Consolidation Initiative
• Closing Thoughts
NOAA VisionNOAA Vision
Vision:
An informed society that uses a comprehensive understanding of the role of the oceans, coasts, and atmosphere in the global ecosystem to make the best social and economic decisions.
Vision:
An informed society that uses a comprehensive understanding of the role of the oceans, coasts, and atmosphere in the global ecosystem to make the best social and economic decisions.
NOAA Mission GoalsNOAA Mission Goals• Protect, restore, and manage the use of
coastal and ocean resources through ecosystem management approaches
• Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond
• Serve society’s needs for weather and water information
To Protect Life and Property, and provide support to the Security of our Homeland
• Support the nation’s commerce with information for safe and efficient transportation.
• Provide Critical Support for NOAA’s Mission
• Protect, restore, and manage the use of coastal and ocean resources through ecosystem management approaches
• Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond
• Serve society’s needs for weather and water information
To Protect Life and Property, and provide support to the Security of our Homeland
• Support the nation’s commerce with information for safe and efficient transportation.
• Provide Critical Support for NOAA’s Mission
NOAA Cross-Cutting PrioritiesNOAA Cross-Cutting Priorities
• Developing, valuing and sustaining a world-class workforce
• Integrated global environmental observations and data management
• Sound, reliable, state of the art research
• Promoting environmental literacy
• Exercising international leadership
• Developing, valuing and sustaining a world-class workforce
• Integrated global environmental observations and data management
• Sound, reliable, state of the art research
• Promoting environmental literacy
• Exercising international leadership
NOAA-Wide Integrated ServicesNOAA-Wide Integrated Services
Situational Awareness &
Response
Situational Awareness &
Response
Modern Integrated Services
ConOps
Modern Integrated Services
ConOps
Public Safety, Economic Benefit, andHazard Resilient Communities
Public Safety, Economic Benefit, andHazard Resilient Communities
DisseminationDissemination
Highly Trained Professional Workforce
Highly Trained Professional Workforce
ITIT
Assess/VerifyAssess/Verify Integrated ServicesIntegrated Services
ObservationsObservations
Tactical Decision Assistance Tactical Decision Assistance
Environmental Information Repository
Environmental Information Repository
State of the ArtScience & Technology
State of the ArtScience & Technology
Test BedsTest Beds Research to OperationsResearch to Operations
Data Assimilation/ Model GuidanceData Assimilation/ Model Guidance
Education/ OutreachEducation/ Outreach
NWS Services EvolutionNWS Services Evolution
State of NOAA NWS:
– Accurate forecasts and skilled workforce
– Post 9/11 service demands
– Integrated Environmental Information Services
– Aging infrastructure
– Budget Considerations
• We need to position ourselves for budget uncertainties and opportunities because if current trends in budget erosion continue, we face financial and operational consequences
State of NOAA NWS:
– Accurate forecasts and skilled workforce
– Post 9/11 service demands
– Integrated Environmental Information Services
– Aging infrastructure
– Budget Considerations
• We need to position ourselves for budget uncertainties and opportunities because if current trends in budget erosion continue, we face financial and operational consequences
NWS Services EvolutionNWS Services Evolution
We need to change so …
…we can do more– Within the NWS
– With other parts of NOAA
– With other agencies
– Through more effective use of existing resources
…and better– Better performance during high-impact events
– Through, better research, better outreach, better training, better knowledge of impacts
– On-scene incident response
We need to change so …
…we can do more– Within the NWS
– With other parts of NOAA
– With other agencies
– Through more effective use of existing resources
…and better– Better performance during high-impact events
– Through, better research, better outreach, better training, better knowledge of impacts
– On-scene incident response
NWS Services EvolutionNWS Services Evolution
• NWS 2015 Vision for Services Evolution
– Provide superior, focused response for high-impact events while maintaining excellence in other important services
– Strengthen partnerships with all sectors
– Create capacity (more time) to support high-impact events and integrate NOAA environmental information services
– Accelerate science & technology infusion
– Enhance employee work life
• NWS 2015 Vision for Services Evolution
– Provide superior, focused response for high-impact events while maintaining excellence in other important services
– Strengthen partnerships with all sectors
– Create capacity (more time) to support high-impact events and integrate NOAA environmental information services
– Accelerate science & technology infusion
– Enhance employee work life
NWS Services EvolutionNWS Services Evolution
Goal: Maintain and improve our status as the standard for the weather enterprise by remaining relevant in a rapidly evolving digital age.
– Meeting the increasing demands for services in the digital age and beyond
– Applying evolving science and technology
– Working even more effectively
Goal: Maintain and improve our status as the standard for the weather enterprise by remaining relevant in a rapidly evolving digital age.
– Meeting the increasing demands for services in the digital age and beyond
– Applying evolving science and technology
– Working even more effectively
The Way ForwardGuiding Principles for Change
The Way ForwardGuiding Principles for Change
• We will maintain 122 Weather Forecast Offices.
• Employees will have a job as long as they want one and can do the job
• There will be no degradation of service.
• We will provide equitable services across the Nation.
• We will continue to be transparent in our planning and will involve the employee organization & constituents. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/digitalera
• We will demonstrate operability, performance, effectiveness, and efficiency before committing to changes.
• We will maintain 122 Weather Forecast Offices.
• Employees will have a job as long as they want one and can do the job
• There will be no degradation of service.
• We will provide equitable services across the Nation.
• We will continue to be transparent in our planning and will involve the employee organization & constituents. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/digitalera
• We will demonstrate operability, performance, effectiveness, and efficiency before committing to changes.
CONOPS Team Report
– Develop and prototype Clustered-Peer CONOPS
– Clustered-Peer CONOPS
• Provide a platform for key operational shifts
• Field offices operate as equals within a cluster
• Cluster delivers environmental information and decision support services focused on high-impact events
• Basic forecast suite is provided without interruption within the cluster and centers
• Cluster Management Team (WFOs, RFCs, National Centers) allocate their resources
• WFOs have evolved to the current state where they work as a team to dynamically shift workload
Corporate Board agreed to pursue recommendations
CONOPS Team Report
– Develop and prototype Clustered-Peer CONOPS
– Clustered-Peer CONOPS
• Provide a platform for key operational shifts
• Field offices operate as equals within a cluster
• Cluster delivers environmental information and decision support services focused on high-impact events
• Basic forecast suite is provided without interruption within the cluster and centers
• Cluster Management Team (WFOs, RFCs, National Centers) allocate their resources
• WFOs have evolved to the current state where they work as a team to dynamically shift workload
Corporate Board agreed to pursue recommendations
The Way ForwardNew Concept of Operations
The Way ForwardNew Concept of Operations
The Way ForwardKey Operational ShiftsThe Way ForwardKey Operational Shifts
Producers of Our Forecasts
Static Resource Allocation
Phenomenon-Based Forecasts
Product-Based Services
Coordination
Weather-Centric
Deterministic(best forecast)
Producers of Our Forecasts
Static Resource Allocation
Phenomenon-Based Forecasts
Product-Based Services
Coordination
Weather-Centric
Deterministic(best forecast)
Customers of Our Expertise
Dynamic Resource Allocation
Impact-Based Forecasts
Decision Support Services
Collaboration
Earth System Science-Based
Probabilistic(uncertainty range)
Customers of Our Expertise
Dynamic Resource Allocation
Impact-Based Forecasts
Decision Support Services
Collaboration
Earth System Science-Based
Probabilistic(uncertainty range)
Current OperationsCurrent Operations Future OperationsFuture Operations
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The Way Forward Integrated High-Impact Services
The Way Forward Integrated High-Impact Services
Definition for High-Impact Events:
High-impact events are man-made or naturally occurring environmental hazards, often sudden, which can affect human health and safety, our economy and the environment.
Definition for High-Impact Events:
High-impact events are man-made or naturally occurring environmental hazards, often sudden, which can affect human health and safety, our economy and the environment.
The Way Forward Integrated High-Impact Services
The Way Forward Integrated High-Impact Services
• Natural hazards, e.g.,– Tornadoes– Hurricanes– Floods– Droughts– Volcanic eruptions– Tsunamis
• Accidents– Chemical releases– Oil spills– Nuclear power plant emergencies
• Terrorism• Space Weather• Public Health
• Natural hazards, e.g.,– Tornadoes– Hurricanes– Floods– Droughts– Volcanic eruptions– Tsunamis
• Accidents– Chemical releases– Oil spills– Nuclear power plant emergencies
• Terrorism• Space Weather• Public Health
The Way ForwardCurrent and Planned Actions
The Way ForwardCurrent and Planned Actions
CONOPS Prototype Team Activities
• NOAA’s Boulder Laboratory with NWS
– Testing AWIPS and network performance
• Expanded domains
• Enhanced collaboration
• Resource allocation tools
• Clustered-peer field prototype plan to be briefed to Corporate Board November
– Field prototype expected to begin in CY 2007
– End state determined by:
• Complexity of plan
• Collective bargaining agreement requirements
• Systems capabilities (AWIPS)
CONOPS Prototype Team Activities
• NOAA’s Boulder Laboratory with NWS
– Testing AWIPS and network performance
• Expanded domains
• Enhanced collaboration
• Resource allocation tools
• Clustered-peer field prototype plan to be briefed to Corporate Board November
– Field prototype expected to begin in CY 2007
– End state determined by:
• Complexity of plan
• Collective bargaining agreement requirements
• Systems capabilities (AWIPS)
The Way ForwardIdentifying Capabilities and Needs
The Way ForwardIdentifying Capabilities and Needs
Issues Being Assessed in Prototype
• Test Key Operational Shifts
• Capabilities required (tools and techniques)
– Communications tools
– Domain size (current limitation is 120,000 grid points)
– Governance of cluster
• Impacts (internal and external)
– Customer needs met?
– Effect on staff? (quality of work life, ability to perform complex tasks across boundaries)
– Improved public planning and preparedness?
– Increased time for training?
Issues Being Assessed in Prototype
• Test Key Operational Shifts
• Capabilities required (tools and techniques)
– Communications tools
– Domain size (current limitation is 120,000 grid points)
– Governance of cluster
• Impacts (internal and external)
– Customer needs met?
– Effect on staff? (quality of work life, ability to perform complex tasks across boundaries)
– Improved public planning and preparedness?
– Increased time for training?
The Way ForwardProposed Field Prototyping Locations
The Way ForwardProposed Field Prototyping Locations
Prototype Clusters
“Great Lakes”“Great Lakes”
“Pacific Northwest”“Pacific Northwest”
“Great Plains”“Great Plains”
“Southeast Coast”“Southeast Coast”
Incident Meteorologists DeployedFor High-Impact Events
Incident Meteorologists DeployedFor High-Impact Events
The Way ForwardFuture State
The Way ForwardFuture State
The Way ForwardFuture State
The Way ForwardFuture State
Hurricane Shelter in Welcome, NCHurricane Shelter in Welcome, NCPhoto by Dave Gatley/FEMAPhoto by Dave Gatley/FEMA
Photo by Andrea Booher/FEMA
Photo by Andrea Booher/FEMA
Sandbagging a flood, St. Genevieve, MO
Sandbagging a flood, St. Genevieve, MO
Photo by Dave Saville/FEMAPhoto by Dave Saville/FEMA
Workmen elevating A/C units previously washed away by Hurricane Floyd
Workmen elevating A/C units previously washed away by Hurricane Floyd
The Way ForwardAviation Initiative
The Way ForwardAviation Initiative
• Aviation Initiative
– FAA wants enhanced services & 20 percent reduced costs
– NWS Proposed Plan to FAA
• Aviation Initiative
– FAA wants enhanced services & 20 percent reduced costs
– NWS Proposed Plan to FAA
The Way ForwardIT Consolidation
The Way ForwardIT Consolidation
• Information Technology Consolidation
– Build flexible, agile infrastructure
– Centralize IT management
– Free up field IT staff to focus on mission requirements
• Information Technology Consolidation
– Build flexible, agile infrastructure
– Centralize IT management
– Free up field IT staff to focus on mission requirements
Closing ThoughtsClosing Thoughts
• National Weather Service 2015
• Integrated in NOAA Functional Model (CONOPS)
• NWS Services Evolution
– Key Operational Shifts
– New Clustered-Peer CONOPS
• The Way Forward “A Phase of Discovery”
– Laboratory & Prototyping
– Milestones & Metrics (measure success and failure)
• Customer Focus & Involvement
Study, Plan, Demonstrate, Evolve
• National Weather Service 2015
• Integrated in NOAA Functional Model (CONOPS)
• NWS Services Evolution
– Key Operational Shifts
– New Clustered-Peer CONOPS
• The Way Forward “A Phase of Discovery”
– Laboratory & Prototyping
– Milestones & Metrics (measure success and failure)
• Customer Focus & Involvement
Study, Plan, Demonstrate, Evolve
Participation by customers is critical to ensure that priorities are properly aligned with needs.
Please send your thoughts to:[email protected]
Participation by customers is critical to ensure that priorities are properly aligned with needs.
Please send your thoughts to:[email protected]
NOAA National Weather Service’sFuture in the Digital Age
NOAA National Weather Service’sFuture in the Digital Age
