noaa national weather service water predictions for life decisions hic meeting 1 hydrology lab...

NOAA National Weather Service

Water PredictionsforLife Decisions

HIC Meeting

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Hydrology Lab Overview

George Smith July 13, 2004



HIC Meeting

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Work Areas in the Hydro LabWork Areas in the Hydro LabNew NWSRFS software architecture (CHPS)New NWSRFS software architecture (CHPS)Overall ensemble forecast research & toolsOverall ensemble forecast research & toolsAWIPS Regular Releases (3.1, 3.3, 4.0, 4.x, 5, 6)AWIPS Regular Releases (3.1, 3.3, 4.0, 4.x, 5, 6)

- - NWSRFS enhancements, WHFS enhancements, IHFS DB conversion NWSRFS enhancements, WHFS enhancements, IHFS DB conversion (Postgres)(Postgres)HSD Bug List & ConsultationHSD Bug List & ConsultationPrecipitation Frequency AnalysisPrecipitation Frequency AnalysisHADSHADSHydromet ForcingHydromet Forcing

- - PE estimates, gauge QC, prob. PE estimates, gauge QC, prob. QPE, NEXRAD improvements, RCA/CSSA, QPE, NEXRAD improvements, RCA/CSSA, temperature forcingtemperature forcingDistributed Hydrologic ModelingDistributed Hydrologic Modeling

- - Frozen ground, large scale hydro modeling DHMS project, DMIP2, Flash flood Frozen ground, large scale hydro modeling DHMS project, DMIP2, Flash flood stat distributed hydrologic model, soil parameters, calibrationstat distributed hydrologic model, soil parameters, calibrationRiver Mechanics models/toolsRiver Mechanics models/tools

- - DamCrest/DamAT, FLDVIEW/FLDXS, FLDAT, FLDWAV/SHRT, coastal river DamCrest/DamAT, FLDVIEW/FLDXS, FLDAT, FLDWAV/SHRT, coastal river modeling, other GISmodeling, other GISOHD/NSSL collaborationsOHD/NSSL collaborations

- - QPESUMS evals, QPE-to-estuary modeling, NMQ, Satellite QPE, Dual QPESUMS evals, QPE-to-estuary modeling, NMQ, Satellite QPE, Dual PolarizationPolarization



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OutlineOutline● Hydrologic Operational Service Improvement ProcessHydrologic Operational Service Improvement Process● OHD End-to-end ProjectsOHD End-to-end Projects

● Distributed Hydrologic ModelingDistributed Hydrologic Modeling● Range Correction AlgorithmRange Correction Algorithm● FLDWAV Update for FLDVIEWFLDWAV Update for FLDVIEW● Probabilistic QPF/QTFProbabilistic QPF/QTF● Site Specific (add SAC-SMA)Site Specific (add SAC-SMA)

● Precipitation Frequency StudiesPrecipitation Frequency Studies● NWS Integrated Water ScienceNWS Integrated Water Science



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Hydrologic Operations & Service Improvement Hydrologic Operations & Service Improvement Process (HOSIP) StatusProcess (HOSIP) Status

Definition & Implementation of a Requirements-based Process that Ensures Definition & Implementation of a Requirements-based Process that Ensures Field Review of Science Infusion and Software Engineering ProjectsField Review of Science Infusion and Software Engineering Projects

Basic Process and Controls DefinedBasic Process and Controls Defined

Implementation on Selected ProjectsImplementation on Selected Projects

• Distributed Hydrologic Modeling SystemDistributed Hydrologic Modeling System

– Statement of Need (SON) & Concept of Operations (CONOPS) Developed Statement of Need (SON) & Concept of Operations (CONOPS) Developed

– Operational Requirements (ORD) Developed & Field Review Scheduled Operational Requirements (ORD) Developed & Field Review Scheduled

• Flood MappingFlood Mapping

– SON, CONOPS, & ORD Developed & Field Review UnderwaySON, CONOPS, & ORD Developed & Field Review Underway

• WSR88D Range Correction AlgorithmWSR88D Range Correction Algorithm

– SON, CONOPS, ORDSON, CONOPS, ORD

• RFC Forecast Verification Re-host on the RAXRFC Forecast Verification Re-host on the RAX

– Requirements analysis, design specifications, reviews, system/user documentationRequirements analysis, design specifications, reviews, system/user documentation

Automated Tool Set Adaptation to Scientific ProcessAutomated Tool Set Adaptation to Scientific Process

• Adapting Software Engineering Tools to Streamline DevelopmentAdapting Software Engineering Tools to Streamline Development

• Requirements Definition Before Development Activities Requirements Definition Before Development Activities



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HOSIP PlansHOSIP Plans

Develop & Implement Quality Assurance ProceduresDevelop & Implement Quality Assurance Procedures

Institutionalize HOSIPInstitutionalize HOSIP• Use on All ProjectsUse on All Projects

• Ensure Field Review & Verification of ProjectsEnsure Field Review & Verification of Projects

• Develop Support Documentation in Accordance with Develop Support Documentation in Accordance with Development Plans Development Plans

Develop Common Plans & Plan Review ProceduresDevelop Common Plans & Plan Review Procedures• Tie to Quad ChartsTie to Quad Charts

• Tie to NOAA & NWS Strategic PlansTie to NOAA & NWS Strategic Plans

Complete Adaptation of Automated Tools to HOSIPComplete Adaptation of Automated Tools to HOSIP

Continue to Coordinate with NWS OSIPContinue to Coordinate with NWS OSIP



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Distributed Hydrologic Modeling System (DHMS) Distributed Hydrologic Modeling System (DHMS) StatusStatus

Collaborated with ABRFC and a contractor (Apex) to develop DHMS 1.0, a Collaborated with ABRFC and a contractor (Apex) to develop DHMS 1.0, a prototype operational distributed hydrologic modeling system, to help prototype operational distributed hydrologic modeling system, to help define functional requirements for DHMS 2.0 (the AWIPS-ready define functional requirements for DHMS 2.0 (the AWIPS-ready version)version)

Compiled ABRFC and WGRFC feedback on DHMS 2.0 functional Compiled ABRFC and WGRFC feedback on DHMS 2.0 functional requirements after 4 months of operational testingrequirements after 4 months of operational testing

Conducted a software engineering functional requirements analysis Conducted a software engineering functional requirements analysis using the “use-case” approachusing the “use-case” approach

• Defined Users (8) Defined Users (8) Use Cases (26) Use Cases (26) Functional Requirements (150) Functional Requirements (150)

Initiated a peer review of the derived use cases and functional Initiated a peer review of the derived use cases and functional requirementsrequirements



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DHMS Future WorkDHMS Future WorkFinish Research and Analysis, HOSIP Stage 3Finish Research and Analysis, HOSIP Stage 3

• Complete requirements review to validate, refine, and prioritize functional requirementsComplete requirements review to validate, refine, and prioritize functional requirements

– OHD, OCWWS/HSD, ABRFC, WGRFCOHD, OCWWS/HSD, ABRFC, WGRFC

• Get OHD/HL approval to move to HOSIP stage 4Get OHD/HL approval to move to HOSIP stage 4

Conduct Operational Development, HOSIP Stage 4Conduct Operational Development, HOSIP Stage 4

• Derive system level requirements (technical/architectural)Derive system level requirements (technical/architectural)

• Design DHMSDesign DHMS

– Design overall DHMSDesign overall DHMS

– Take advantage of CHPS where possibleTake advantage of CHPS where possible

– Design initial components for DHMS 2.0Design initial components for DHMS 2.0

– Create test plans/procedures for DHMS 2.0Create test plans/procedures for DHMS 2.0

• Develop and Test DHMS 2.0Develop and Test DHMS 2.0

• Submit DHMS 2.0 to AWIPSSubmit DHMS 2.0 to AWIPS



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Field evaluation at 6 WFOs completed on June 11:• Charleston, WV; Portland, OR; Norman, OK; Pleasant Hill, MO; Minneapolis, MN; Pittsburgh, PA• Level II data delivered from WFOs to clone RPG systems at NWSHQ; web interface provided for field participants to review data• Purpose of field evaluation:

• to validate science using real-time data from NWS sites around the nation• to solicit feedback from operational forecasters

• Results:• Overall impression: positive• Some minor adjustments in logic needed to take into account unforeseen situations

Formal project documentation underway:• Concept of operations (1st draft complete)• Operational Requirements definition• Scientific Algorithm description

Independent Validation & Verification (IV&V) of science at Radar Operations Center (ROC) System resource issue:

• ROC engineering analysis says software consumes too much cpu• HSEB NEXRAD Development Group currently focusing on improving source code efficiency

Range Correction Algorithm (RCA) Project Status



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Schedule delays:• Postpone from AWIPS OB6 to OB7 (pending outcome of OB6 AWIPS SREC)• Postpone from RPG Build 8 to Build 9 (system resource issues requires more effort)• Deploy Spring 2006

July 2004: ROC completes IV&V

July 2004: Presentation to NEXRAD Technical Advisory Committee (TAC):• committee to review field evaluation results and cost benefit• committee to provide recommendation for proceeding to operational implementation

August 2004: • Develop strategy for improving system resource usage• Revise project plan

October 2004: presentation to NEXRAD System Recommendation Evaluation Committee (SREC) for RPG Build assignment

RCA Project Plans



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FLDWAV Update for FLDVIEW Project StatusFLDWAV Update for FLDVIEW Project Status

Accomplishments:Accomplishments:

Incorporated the features of the HSMB Prototype FLDWAV Incorporated the features of the HSMB Prototype FLDWAV into the OB4 baseline.into the OB4 baseline.

• Allowing FLDVIEW input data to be generated by baseline FLDWAVAllowing FLDVIEW input data to be generated by baseline FLDWAV

Added significant regression test cases for FLDWAV to Added significant regression test cases for FLDWAV to AWIPS software baseline.AWIPS software baseline.

Formalized a process to migrate FLDWAV capabilities to Formalized a process to migrate FLDWAV capabilities to the AWIPS baseline.the AWIPS baseline.

• Decreasing the time it takes for Prototype features to get into the Decreasing the time it takes for Prototype features to get into the baseline (specific process steps derived from HOSIP)baseline (specific process steps derived from HOSIP)



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FLDWAV Update for FLDVIEW Project PlansFLDWAV Update for FLDVIEW Project Plans

Underway:Underway:

Adding the capability to generate multi-scenario Adding the capability to generate multi-scenario FLDVIEW input to the OB5 baseline via the FLDVIEW input to the OB5 baseline via the FLDWAV Migration Process.FLDWAV Migration Process.

Wrap-up FLDWAV Update Project.Wrap-up FLDWAV Update Project.

Further River Mechanics tasks will be part a new Further River Mechanics tasks will be part a new end-to-end projects.end-to-end projects.

Implement Simplified Hydraulic Routing Technique (SHRT).Implement Simplified Hydraulic Routing Technique (SHRT).

Put FLDVIEW into AWIPS.Put FLDVIEW into AWIPS.



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PQPF-PQTF Project StatusPQPF-PQTF Project StatusWithin HOSIP Stage 3, aims at enhancing the Ensemble Pre-Processor of the Within HOSIP Stage 3, aims at enhancing the Ensemble Pre-Processor of the

ESP system to: ESP system to:

• Produce seamless probabilistic forecasts for precipitation and temperature for Produce seamless probabilistic forecasts for precipitation and temperature for all lead times (1 hour to 1 year)all lead times (1 hour to 1 year)

• Incorporate skill of deterministic forecasts (QPF/QTF), correct forecast bias, Incorporate skill of deterministic forecasts (QPF/QTF), correct forecast bias, and account for forecast uncertaintyand account for forecast uncertainty

• Provide an interim step until global/regional ensembles are skillful enough to Provide an interim step until global/regional ensembles are skillful enough to be used directlybe used directly

Current status:Current status:

• Integrated new science for short-term (days 1-5) using the RFC QPF/QTF Integrated new science for short-term (days 1-5) using the RFC QPF/QTF

• Unified the processes for all lead times (including days 1-365 climate Unified the processes for all lead times (including days 1-365 climate adjustments from NCEP/CPC)adjustments from NCEP/CPC)

• Set up prototype at 3 demo RFCs for testing and feedbackSet up prototype at 3 demo RFCs for testing and feedback

• Developed a probabilistic verification program to do retrospective verification Developed a probabilistic verification program to do retrospective verification of short-term PQPF/PQTFof short-term PQPF/PQTF



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PQPF-PQTF Project Future WorkPQPF-PQTF Project Future WorkEnsemble generation:Ensemble generation:

• Enhance short-term functionality: integrate HPC QPF if no RFC QPF Enhance short-term functionality: integrate HPC QPF if no RFC QPF available, improve PQTF methodologyavailable, improve PQTF methodology

• Enhance medium-term functionality : include procedures for incorporating Enhance medium-term functionality : include procedures for incorporating CPC days 6-14 forecastsCPC days 6-14 forecasts

Ensemble calibration: Ensemble calibration:

• Enhance short-term calibration programsEnhance short-term calibration programs• Deliver a calibration prototype for all lead times Deliver a calibration prototype for all lead times

Ensemble verification: Ensemble verification:

• Integrate more diagnosis measures Integrate more diagnosis measures • Deliver a probabilistic verification program for short- and medium-term Deliver a probabilistic verification program for short- and medium-term

PQPF/PQTFPQPF/PQTF

Communication:Communication:

• Papers to present short-term methodology and verification results Papers to present short-term methodology and verification results • Experience shared with other global/regional ensemble projects Experience shared with other global/regional ensemble projects • Plan to move ensemble pre-processor components through operational Plan to move ensemble pre-processor components through operational

development to deploymentdevelopment to deployment



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Site Specific StatusSite Specific StatusAWIPS OB4 – to be deployed September, 2004AWIPS OB4 – to be deployed September, 2004

• Added SAC-SMA rainfall-runoff model, which requiresAdded SAC-SMA rainfall-runoff model, which requires

– Parameter and state data transfer from RFCParameter and state data transfer from RFC

– Significant RFC involvement for calibration and state maintenanceSignificant RFC involvement for calibration and state maintenance

• Still includes MBRFC APIStill includes MBRFC API

• Provides graphical editing of MAP, with immediateProvides graphical editing of MAP, with immediate

forecast hydrograph recalculation and displayforecast hydrograph recalculation and display

OB4/ Field Test SitesOB4/ Field Test Sites

• SERFC/SJU, MBRFC, NWRFC pendingSERFC/SJU, MBRFC, NWRFC pending

End Site Specific SAC-SMA ProjectEnd Site Specific SAC-SMA Project



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Precipitation Frequency StudiesPrecipitation Frequency Studies



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Precipitation Frequency EstimatesPrecipitation Frequency Estimates

•DurationsDurations• 5 minutes to 60 days5 minutes to 60 days

•Annual Exceedance ProbabilitiesAnnual Exceedance Probabilities• 1 in 2 to 1 in 10001 in 2 to 1 in 1000

•Annual Maximum and Partial Duration ResultsAnnual Maximum and Partial Duration Results•High Resolution Spatial EstimatesHigh Resolution Spatial Estimates• 30 arc second30 arc second

•Confidence LimitsConfidence Limits• upper and lower 90%upper and lower 90%



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Precip Frequency Products & DeliveryPrecip Frequency Products & Delivery•Web Based DeliveryWeb Based Delivery• ““Precipitation Frequency Data Server”Precipitation Frequency Data Server”• response is very favorableresponse is very favorable

•High Quality Maps Produced Using GISHigh Quality Maps Produced Using GIS•Interactive Tables and ChartsInteractive Tables and Charts•Base GridsBase Grids•SeasonalitySeasonality•Areal Reduction FactorsAreal Reduction Factors•Temporal DistributionsTemporal Distributions•DocumentationDocumentation



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Example map from Precipitation FrequencyData Server

hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/



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NWS Integrated Water Science PlanningNWS Integrated Water Science PlanningObjectiveObjective

• Carry out a wide-ranging assessment of NWS water science and technology development Carry out a wide-ranging assessment of NWS water science and technology development necessary to implement a comprehensive suite of high-resolution digital hydrology and water necessary to implement a comprehensive suite of high-resolution digital hydrology and water resources analysis and forecast products in the next 5 to 10 yearsresources analysis and forecast products in the next 5 to 10 years

Activities (Apr through Aug)Activities (Apr through Aug)

• Review relevant NWS water science activities by OHD/HL, OCWWS/NOHRSC, NCEP/EMC, and Review relevant NWS water science activities by OHD/HL, OCWWS/NOHRSC, NCEP/EMC, and RFCsRFCs

• Assess whether current activities can support efficient and effective delivery of new science for Assess whether current activities can support efficient and effective delivery of new science for operational implementation of high-resolution gridded water resources products, and if the operational implementation of high-resolution gridded water resources products, and if the ongoing R&D efforts are adequate to overcome the foremost science challenges in meeting the ongoing R&D efforts are adequate to overcome the foremost science challenges in meeting the objectiveobjective

• Recommend approaches to maximize the strengths of each NWS water science component with Recommend approaches to maximize the strengths of each NWS water science component with respect to interactions with other NOAA freshwater researchers and with the external community respect to interactions with other NOAA freshwater researchers and with the external community to streamline science-to-operations paths in meeting the objectiveto streamline science-to-operations paths in meeting the objective

Deliverable (end of Aug)Deliverable (end of Aug)

• An executable plan compatible with the NWS Science and Technology Infusion PlanAn executable plan compatible with the NWS Science and Technology Infusion Plan

Membership (Gary Carter, Mentor)Membership (Gary Carter, Mentor)

• D.-J. Seo (OHD/HL), Don Cline (OCWWS/NOHRSC), Ken Mitchell (NCEP/EMC), Jiayu Zhou D.-J. Seo (OHD/HL), Don Cline (OCWWS/NOHRSC), Ken Mitchell (NCEP/EMC), Jiayu Zhou (OST), Rob Hartman (RFC)(OST), Rob Hartman (RFC)

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