noaa csi meeting january 29 2009
DESCRIPTION
° The Midwest Floods of Spring 2008 ___ Soil moisture sensitivity ---- Contribution to State of Climate Report ° “Chilly” Surface Temperatures --- Decadal cooling of Global sfcT: 1999-’08 --- US 2008 sfcT: likely lowest since 1996 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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NOAA CSI Meeting January 29 2009
° The Midwest Floods of Spring 2008 ___ Soil moisture sensitivity ---- Contribution to State of Climate Report
° “Chilly” Surface Temperatures --- Decadal cooling of Global sfcT: 1999-’08 --- US 2008 sfcT: likely lowest since 1996 ---Contribution to State of Climate Report
° October-December 2008 ___ La Nina & Npac SST effect
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Is the Climate Warming or Cooling?
David R. EasterlingNOAA/National Climatic Data Center
Michael F. WehnerLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
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Contrarians
• “The latest warming trend, which appears to have ended in 1998, is the result of the end of the Little Ice Age” Investor’s Business Daily, Nov., 2008
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Global Annual Surface Air Temperature,
MPI-ECHAM CGCMA2 Forcing
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Probability of 10 year Trend
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2008 US SFCT Annual Anomalies
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US SFCT Annual Anomalies:Observed
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US SFCT Annual Anomalies:AMIP Simulated
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2008 US SFCT Annual Anomalies
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2008 US SFCT Annual Anomalies:150 AMIP Runs
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Observed October- December 2008 Anomalies
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Observed October - December 2008 200Z Anomalies
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Observed October- December 2008 Anomalies
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Simulated October- December 2008 Anomalies GOGA, 150-member multi-model
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Simulated October- December 2008 Anomalies Tropical SSTs, 150-member multi-model
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Simulated October- December 2008 Anomalies XTropical SSTs, 150-member multi-model
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Simulated OND 2008150-member multi-model
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Observed October - December 2008 200Z Anomalies
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Simulated Response to October 2008 NPAC SSTs GFS Coupled Mixed Layer Runs
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Observed Conditions Since 1 January 2009
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Estimated Snow Depth 22 December 2008
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Estimated Snow Depth 27 January 2009
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What are the Official Forecasts for US winter climate?
0.5 month Lead DJF 0.5 month Lead JFM
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What are the Official Forecast for US winter climate?
0.5 month Lead DJF 0.5 month Lead JFM