noaa arctic priorities and potential contributions to … · noaa arctic priorities and potential...
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NOAA Arctic Priorities and Potential Contributions to PPP/YOPP
Randall DoleNOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
Physical Sciences Division
NOAA’s Arctic Goals
Forecast Sea Ice
Strengthen Foundational Science to Understand& Detect Arctic Climate and Ecosystem Changes
Improve Weather & Water Forecasts & Warnings
Enhance International & National Partnerships
Improve Stewardship and Management of Oceanand Coastal Resources in the Arctic
Advance Resilient and Healthy ArcticCommunities and Economies
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NOAA Arctic Prediction Workshop(2014)
Major Workshop Recommendation:
NOAA should participate vigorously in the WMO/PPP Year of Polar Prediction Project (PPP), particularly in efforts related to the Year Of Polar Prediction (YOPP).
Expectation: YOPP would enablesignificant advances in Arctic Predictions and Services
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NMFS
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ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS TECHNOLOGIES LO
Pacific
Arctic
Group
(PAG
)Ditributed
Biological O
bservatory (D
BO)
Observatio
ns of Ice
accretio
n on
vessels in Arctic
waters
Internationa
l Ice
Cha
rting Working
Group
Globa
l Cryosph
ere Watch
(GCW
) Internationa
l Arctic
Systems for Observing
the Atmosph
ere (IA
SOA)
South Po
leBa
rrow
Observatory
Russian/Ca
nadian
Statio
nsOliktok Po
int
ICEC
APS
Ope
ratio
nal Satellite Su
rface/Atmos
Parmeters
Wind Ocean
Datab
ase ‐ A
rctic
Ocean
Expa
nsion of Arctic
and
Antarctic Dire
ct Broad
cast Satellite Prod
ucts
GOES
‐R Risk
Red
uctio
n
UAS
‐ de
Boer
UAS
‐Son
de ‐ Cion
eUAS
‐ Ho
od
Buoy
s
RUSU
LCA
Internationa
l Ice
Buo
y Prog
ram
MOSA
iCDitributed
Biological O
bservatory (D
BO)
Ocean
ograph
ic Observatio
ns ‐ Co
ok In
let
Coastal A
ssessm
ents ‐ Be
aufort and
Chu
kchi Sea
sWorld Ocean
Atla
s & Arctic
Reg
iona
l Clim
atolog
yWorld Ocean
Datab
ase
Loss of S
ea Ice Prog
ram
Ope
ratio
nal B
lend
ed Ice an
d Sn
ow Satellite Prod
ucts
Integration of Sen
tinel 1 data into OSP
O ice an
d wind mon
itorin
gSe
a Ice Co
ncen
tration Da
ta fo
r Ope
ratio
nal Ice
forecasting
GOES
‐R Risk
Red
uctio
n
EMC Land
Prediction
CVP Ice As
simila
tion an
d Pred
ictio
n (CFSv2
)GOFS
Sea
Ice Va
lidation
Land
fast Ice Mod
el (C
IOM)
Sea Ice Mod
eling (ESP
C) Forecast S
ervices W
eather/Ice
in supp
ort o
f YOPP
Field Activities
EMC Sh
ort R
ange
Ice Pred
ictio
nEM
C Mid‐Ran
ge ice Pred
ictio
nEM
C Lo
ng‐Ran
ge Ice Pred
ictio
nEv
alua
te Ana
lysis
and
Predictive tools
Next G
enerationa
Globa
l Prediction System
NGGPS
‐ Co
upled Arctic System M
odel
EMC Ocean
Prediction
Improve Observations X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XField Programs X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XProcess Representation X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XAssimilation X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XPredictability Sea Ice X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XPolar‐Midlatitude Linkages X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XWx Prediction Verification X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XUnderstand Benefits X X X X X X X X X X XTraining X X X X X X X X X
EXAMPLES of NOAA ASSETS for the YEAR OF POLAR PREDICTION (YOPP)
OCEAN OBSERVATIONS SEA ICE MODELING/PREDICTIONSEA ICE
OBSERVATIONSCOORDINATION
YOPP Activity andObjective
Preliminary Analysis – NOAA Assets for YOPP
Type
Types of Activities
• Coordinating Activities (e.g. IASOA) – 6• Atmospheric Observing Activities (e.g. GOES‐R Risk Reduction) ‐ 9• Technology Development Activities (e.g. UAS ‐ Dropsondes) – 4• Ocean Observing Activities (e.g. Wind Ocean Data Base) – 7• Sea‐Ice Observing Activities (e.g. Sea‐Ice Loss Program) – 5• Land Observing Activities (e.g. EMC Land Prediction) – 1• Sea Ice Modeling/Prediction Activities (e.g. CVP Ice Assimilation and
Prediction CFSv2) – 13• Model Output Activities (e.g. Coupled Ice‐Ocean modeling FVCOM) – 3• Foundational Research Activities (e.g. Arctic Dipole Anomaly Research) – 8• Operational Activities (e.g. Evaluate User Requirements for Providing
Decision Support ‐ 2
5Potential for diverse NOAA contributions to YOPP
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• Potential contributionsfrom all NOAA research and service lines
Across NOAA Potential Contributions
NWSNOSNMFSNESDISOAR
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For more information on NOAA’s Arctic planning, see:
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/NOAAarcticactionplan2014.pdf
NOAA believes it has much it can offer to YOPP ‐We look forward to working with you.
Goal 1: Forecast Sea Ice
Goal Statement – Accurate, quantitative, daily forecasts to decadal predictions of sea ice are provided to support safe operations and ecosystem stewardship.
Five-year Strategy• Improve daily to weekly sea ice
models and forecasts and newseasonal prediction services
• Multi-decadal sea ice projections• Retrospective and prospective
studies of the linkages between changes in Arctic sea ice and hemispheric weather and climate
NOAA’s Arctic Vision and Strategy 6 8
Goal 3: Improve Weather and Water Forecasts and Warnings
NOAA’s Arctic Vision and Strateg
y
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Goal Statement - Advanced, accurate forecasts and warnings are provided to ensure society can prepare for and respond appropriately to weather-related routine and extreme events.
Five-year Strategy• Improve Arctic marine weather,
sea ice and storm forecast services.
• Protect northern and western Alaska coastal communities from storm surge, inundation, and erosion hazards.
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Goal 4: Enhance International andNational Partnerships
NOAA’s Arctic Vision and Strategy 9
Goal Statement - National and international partners are engaged to promote cooperation and sharing of data, observational platforms, and intellectual resources to enable more rapid and comprehensive attainment of NOAA's Arctic goals.
Five-year Strategy• Encourage data sharing at multiple
levels among providers and users• Expand Arctic protection mechanisms• Provide leadership and resources to
support Arctic governance and science organizations
• Support development of effective SAON process
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Linking Physical‐Biological Sciences and Services• Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) sites (red boxes) are regional “hotspots” located along a latitudinal gradient
• DBO sites exhibit high productivity, biodiversity, and overall rates of change
• DBO sites serve as a change detection array for the identification and consistent monitoring of biophysical responses
• Sites sampled by national and international entities with shared data plan[modified by Karen Frey from Grebmeier et al. 2010, EOS 91]