no slide title...gas prices have risen, but inventories remain high $0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00...
TRANSCRIPT
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Forward-Looking Statements
This information and other statements by the company may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of
the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act with respect to, among other items: projections and estimates of earnings,
revenues, margins, volumes, rates, cost-savings, expenses, taxes, liquidity, capital expenditures, dividends, share
repurchases or other financial items, statements of management’s plans, strategies and objectives for future
operations, and management’s expectations as to future performance and operations and the time by which objectives
will be achieved, statements concerning proposed new services, and statements regarding future economic, industry or
market conditions or performance. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words or phrases such as
“will,” “should,” “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project,” “estimate,” “preliminary” and similar expressions. Forward-
looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and the company undertakes no obligation to update or
revise any forward-looking statement. If the company updates any forward-looking statement, no inference should be
drawn that the company will make additional updates with respect to that statement or any other forward-looking
statements.
Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, and actual performance or results could
differ materially from that anticipated by any forward-looking statements. Factors that may cause actual results to differ
materially from those contemplated by any forward-looking statements include, among others; (i) the company’s
success in implementing its financial and operational initiatives; (ii) changes in domestic or international economic,
political or business conditions, including those affecting the transportation industry (such as the impact of industry
competition, conditions, performance and consolidation); (iii) legislative or regulatory changes; (iv) the inherent
business risks associated with safety and security; (v) the outcome of claims and litigation involving or affecting the
company; (vi) natural events such as severe weather conditions or pandemic health crises; and (vii) the inherent
uncertainty associated with projecting economic and business conditions.
Other important assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-
looking statements are specified in the company’s SEC reports, accessible on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov and
the company’s website at www.csx.com.
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Presentation overview . . .
Produced 2012 earnings growth and margin expansion — Overcame substantial utility coal headwinds to sustain long-term performance
Business mix has changed significantly since 2006 — Coal now 20% of total volume while intermodal has grown to 38%
Coal headwinds expected to continue well into 2013 — While natural gas prices have risen, coal inventory levels remain high
Continued intermodal and merchandise growth expected — Broad-based growth expected across both markets
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Earnings growth achieved despite coal headwinds
Dollars in millions 2012 Variance
Revenue
Expense
$11,756
8,299
–%
–%
Operating Income
Operating Ratio
3,457
70.6%
1%
30 bps
Net Earnings
$ 1,859
2%
EPS
$1.79
7%
Revenue factors
— Total coal revenue declined by
$519 million; volume down 16%
— Merchandise and intermodal
revenue grew $514 million
— Excluding export coal, pricing
remained above inflation
Expense factors
— Generated productivity savings
of $197 million
— Real estate gains and incentive
compensation drove benefits
Cycling over $100 million in 2013
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2012 Performance
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$2.14
$3.46
2006 2012
Dollars in Billions
22.3%
29.4%
2006 2012
$0.93
$1.79
2006 2012
Performance sustains CSX’s strong track record. . .
Operating Income Operating Margin Earnings Per Share
8% CAGR 710 bps Improvement 12% CAGR
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. . . despite significant volume decline and mix shift
2006 2012
Volume Units in Thousands
Merchandise Intermodal Domestic Coal Export Coal
Merchandise decline
— Industrial and housing economies
have suppressed recovery
Intermodal growth
— Driven by highway conversions
and new customers
Domestic coal decline
— Driven by natural gas substitution
Export coal growth
— Driven by secular long-term
global trends
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7,358
6,409
44%
30%
24%
42%
38%
14%
6%
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2012 Volume by Market 6.4 Million Units
Diverse business will drive long-term growth
Domestic Coal
14%
Export Coal
6%
Domestic Intermodal
20%
International Intermodal
18%
Chemicals 7%
Automotive 7%
Metals 4%
Agriculture 6%
Phosphates 5%
Food & Consumer 2%
Forest Products 5%
Emerging Markets 6%
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Gas prices have risen, but inventories remain high
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13
Henry Hub Natural Gas Price (per mmbtu)
Nat Gas PRB ILB NAPP CAPP
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Domestic Coal
Source: Doyle Trading Consultants and PIRA
0
30
60
90
120
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13
Utility Stockpiles Millions of Short Tons
Total North South
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Export coal diversified, but challenged near-term
14
17
25
31
2
7
9
11
6
5
6
7
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Export Tons in Millions
Europe Asia South American and Other
$50
$150
$250
$350
Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013
Queensland Price Per Ton (Met)
$70
$90
$110
$130
$150
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13
API2 Price Per Ton (Steam)
9
Export Coal
40
48
40
30
22
~
Chemicals
100
91
84 87 87 87
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Chemicals Production Index: 2007=100
Output remains below
pre-recession levels
U.S. companies benefitting
from low natural gas prices
Auto and oil & gas industries drive Industrial sector
Automotive Metals
15.1
12.6
8.6
11.9 13.1
15.3
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
NALVP in Millions
Source: Global Insights and Bloomberg
86% 80%
52%
71% 75% 76%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Steel Mill Utilization
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Industrial Sector
Production back to
pre-recession levels
Average vehicle age still
remains high
Near-term utilization
struggling to exceed 80%
Long-term growth driven
by auto and oil & gas
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U.S. energy renaissance drives industrial growth
Drilling expected to increase
— Supports Frac sand and metal pipe
Growing liquids from drilling
— LPG volumes increasing
Eastern refineries increasing
usage of domestic crude oil
— Crude-by-rail volume growing
Abundant natural gas to drive
domestic chemical production
— Long-term positive for plastics and
petrochemicals volumes
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Industrial Sector
Refineries
Fractionators
Ethane Crackers
Drilling Activity
Source: EIA
Projection
Industry advancements improving crop yields
Drought in 2012 significantly
impacted crop yields
— Demand remains steady
— Inventories near historic lows
Soil conditions also impacted
by 2012 drought
— Increase in precipitation critical
for 2013 growing season
Fertilizer and advanced
technologies drive crop yields
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Source: USDA and ProExporter
Agricultural Sector
1975 2020
U.S. Corn Production Index: 1975=100
Acres Planted Yield per Acre
203
113
100
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Housing market drives nearly 6% of CSX’s business
1,406
1,768
1,492 1,371
1,536
659
1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's 2010's
U.S. Housing Starts in Thousands
Decade Average Historical Average
Housing starts remain well
below historical averages
— 60% growth from 2012 required
to reach 50-year average
Housing starts drive about
5-6% of CSX business
— Lumber and building products
— Aggregates and waste
— Metals and plastics
— Intermodal
— Appliances
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Construction Sector
Source: Global Insights
H2R, global consumption drive intermodal growth
5.8
9.3
2012 Eastern Intermodal Loads Opportunity
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Freight volume for lengths
of haul over 550 miles
Domestic Eastern Market
15 Million Units
Intermodal
$7.3 $7.4 $7.6 $8.0 $8.3
$5.0 $5.2 $5.4 $5.7
$6.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
U.S. International Trade
Dollars in Billions
Imports Exports
$12.3 $12.6 $13.0 $13.7
$14.3
Source: AAR CS54 data and Global Insight’s Transearch data
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Investments enhance intermodal network capabilities
Driving efficiencies through
double-stack clearances
— Double-stack volume is 80%
today; over 90% by 2015
New and expanded terminals
address market opportunity
— Expanded Worcester, Charlotte
and Columbus recently
— Baltimore, Winter Haven and
Pittsburgh reflect new terminals
— Montreal terminal will expand
NAFTA trade opportunities
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Intermodal
Columbus
Montreal
Baltimore
Charlotte
Pittsburgh
Worcester
Winter Haven
Expansion
New Construction
NW Ohio Intermodal Hub
National Gateway Project
Existing Terminal
Merchandise and Intermodal growth remains strong
$1,018
$659
$514
2009 Growth 2012
Merchandise and intermodal revenue has grown $2.2B . . .
7% 7%
4%
6%
5%
2%
5%
6%
14% 6%
20%
18%
. . . and now represents nearly 80% of total volume
Chemicals Automotive
Metals Agricultural Products
Phosphates & Fertilizers Food & Consumer
Forest Products Emerging Markets
Domestic Coal Export Coal
Domestic Intermodal International Intermodal
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$6,059M
$8,250M $2,191M
2010 2011 2012
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Wrap-up . . .
Earnings growth and margin expansion in 2012 — Merchandise and intermodal growth, plus productivity overcame coal headwinds
Coal markets will remain challenged in 2013 — Low gas prices, high inventories and lower global demand are key drivers
Merchandise/intermodal growth expected to exceed GDP — Profitable growth across all markets supported by superior service product
New energy environment creates opportunities — Crude-by-rail opportunity coming east; low gas prices reindustrializing America
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