no outstanding surprises when using social media as source for weak signals detection?
TRANSCRIPT
No Outstanding Surprises when Using Social Media as Source for Weak Signals? First Attempt to Discuss the Impact of Social Media Sources to Detect Surprising Weak Signals
Presentation at ICDS 2015, 26th February, Lisbon
Dr. Markus Lassnig (together with Dr. Robert Eckhoff, Dr. Mark Markus, and Dr. Sandra Schön)
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Agenda
Weak Signals Detection and our Research Question
Our Background: Salzburg Research and Innovation Signals approach
Results: No Outstanding Surprises when Using Social Media as Source for Weak
Signals?
Discussion
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Weak signals (Theory)
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Figure 1. Evolution of a weak signal, building
upon Coffman [7] and Steinmuller [20]
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Weak Signals and Surprise (Theory)
„they are new and surprising from the signal receiver’s vantage point (although
others may already perceive it)“ (Coffman)
„We can define that the information content of a signal or new information
produced by it depends besides on the relevance of the signal also on its surprise
value to the actor” (Ilmola and Kuusi, p. 913)
The potential to surprise, “because they are new and even surprising” “can break
our prevailing mental models and encourage us to think differently” (Ilmola and
Kuusi, p. 913).
“In contemporary futures studies the term weak signal refers to an observed
anomaly in the known path of transformation that surprises us somehow” (Kuosa,
p. 22).
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Why did we start wondering?
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Eckhoff, Robert; Markus, Mark; Lassnig, Markus; and Schön, Sandra (2015). Guidelines for social media mining for innovation purposes. Experiences and recommendations from literature and practice. Proceedings of eKNOW 2015, The Seventh International Conference on Information, Process, and Knowledge Management, February 22 - 27, 2015 - Lisbon, Portugal. [Paper accepted, presented yesterday]
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Research Questions
Did others have similar experiences with no outstanding surprises when using
social media as a source for the detection of weak signals?
If this is the case, what are potential explanations for this phenomenon?
Desktop-based research
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Research Design
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Our Background and Experiences ...
An independent, innovation-driven research
and technology organisation (RTO)
Area: information technologies (IT)
Provides consulting in technical IT and
innovation issues and conduct research in
national and international research
programmes and on behalf of the industry
ca. 70 employees
Partners and customers: e.g. Atomic,
RedBull, European Commission, ORF,
ÖAMTC – Austrian Automotive Association
Located at Salzburg, Austria
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What is Salzburg Research?
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Who is the Innovation Lab at Salzburg Research?
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Robert Sandra Hannes Diana
Mark Veronika Markus Guntram
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Innovation Signals Process at Salzburg Research
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Innovation Signals Process at Salzburg Research
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Innovation Signals Process at Salzburg Research
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Innovation Signals Process at Salzburg Research
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Innovation Signals Process at Salzburg Research
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Innovation Signals Process at Salzburg Research
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Innovation Signals Process at Salzburg Research
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We have experiences with industry partners
Skiing industry
Car mobility
Energy sector
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Are our experiences individual or common?
We found and read papers
about weak signals and social media;
weak signals detection with other methods;
on „weak signals“ and „surprise“;
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Are our experiences individual or common?
We found and read papers
about weak signals and social media;
weak signals detection with other methods;
on „weak signals“ and „surprise“;
NONE of them reported surprising results
or surprises when presenting results.
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Potential Explanation - 1
Characteristic of noisy social media and limits of current
mining approaches
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Potential Explanation - 2
Filters may avoid the detection of surprising weak signals
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Potential Explanation - 3
Our customers are experts, not newbies
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Potential Explanation - 4
Epistemological limits of surprising weak signals detection
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Discussion
The role of the source (social media)?
Effects on theory and practice?
Your comments are welcome!
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Dr. Markus Lassnig
Vice Head of InnovationLab
Salzburg Research Forschungsgesellschaft m.b.H.
Tel. +43 662 2288-302 | Fax +43 662 2288-222
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