no more name-calling

14 January 2020

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SEE PAGE 13 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

Global Markets Daily

No More Name-calling

US Drops China’s Currency Manipulator Label

US drops China’s currency manipulator label in its Treasury FX

report released overnight, signaling further positivity in relations

just shortly before the phase-1 deal signing tomorrow.

Improvement in market sentiments sent the USDJPY pair above

110 as a result. CNH also gained around 0.2% vs. the dollar. On

net, some positivity may be imparted to other EM Asia FX as well,

but we think it could be modest in magnitude, as it arises

indirectly through positive correlations with the yuan.

No Other Large Surprises From Treasury Report

Aside from the dropping of China’s currency manipulator label,

there were few other surprises from the US Treasury FX report. No

major trading partner met all three criteria the Treasury uses to

evaluate currency manipulation tendencies. The members of the

“watch list” (countries which partially violate the criteria and are

more closely monitored) also largely remained the same, with the

only change being the addition of Switzerland.

US CPI and China Trade Data on Tap

Key data releases today include US CPI (Dec), Real Average Weekly Earnings (Dec), China trade (Dec), Japan Current Account (Nov), India Wholesale Prices (Dec), New Zealand Building Permits (Nov) and House Sales (Dec). Fed’s Williams and George, ECB’s Yves Mersch will also be speaking.

Implied USD/SGD Estimates at 8.30am

Upper Band Limit Mid-Point Lower Band Limit

1.3415 1.3689 1.3963

Analysts

G7: Events & Market Closure

Date Ctry Event

13 Jan JP Markets Closure

AXJ: Events & Market Closure

Date Ctry Event

13 Jan PH Markets Closure

17 Jan KR BoK Meeting

Model-Implied USD/CNY midpoint estimated at 6.8955 for 14 Jan 2020

Saktiandi Supaat

(65) 6320 1379

[email protected]

Tan Yanxi

(65) 6320 1378

[email protected]

Christopher Wong

(65) 6320 1347

[email protected]

Fiona Lim

(65) 6320 1374

[email protected]

MajorsPrev

Close% Chg Asian FX

Prev

Close% Chg

EUR/USD 1.1134 0.12 USD/SGD 1.3466 -0.13

GBP/USD 1.2989 -0.57 EUR/SGD 1.4994 -0.03

AUD/USD 0.6904 0.04 JPY/SGD 1.2248 -0.59

NZD/USD 0.6631 0.00 GBP/SGD 1.749 -0.72

USD/JPY 109.95 0.46 AUD/SGD 0.9296 -0.12

EUR/JPY 122.42 0.63 NZD/SGD 0.8928 -0.25

USD/CHF 0.9707 -0.20 CHF/SGD 1.3871 0.04

USD/CAD 1.3057 0.05 CAD/SGD 1.0314 -0.21

USD/MYR 4.0625 -0.33 SGD/MYR 3.017 -0.15

USD/THB 30.22 -0.08 SGD/IDR 10152.85 -0.43

USD/IDR 13673 -0.72 SGD/PHP 37.4725 0.00

USD/PHP 50.735 0.00 SGD/CNY 5.1172 -0.28

FX: Overnight Closing Prices

14 January 2020 2

FX Research & Strategy

G7 Currencies

DXY Index – Softening on Stronger Risk-on. USD continued to

tread water while equities were rather supported. 10year treasury

yield was also a tad higher, last seen around 1.8530% as risk

appetite remains buoyed by the upcoming US-China trade deal with

sources cited by Bloomberg that the Trump administration is

removing the “currency manipulator” label off China. The DXY

index closed at 97.35. It decline was more obvious against the EM

AxJ currencies compared to DM peers as the precipitous decline in

the USDCNH continued to drag on the rest of USDAxJ. The DXY

itself was not able to show much decline with the

underperformance of the GBP. We continue to look for opportunity

to lean against the greenback’s strength. Growth convergence with

the rest of the world (weaker US data vs. signs of stabilization

China, global trade) could continue to undermine the USD. Data

that is of most concern for today should be the CPI. Price action is

still within a falling trend channel. Resistance at 97.75 levels (50,

200 DMAs) intact. Support at 97.20 (21-dma), 96.40, 95.80 levels.

Week ahead has CPI(Dec), Real Average Weekly earnings (Dec), Fed

Williams, George speak; Wed has PPI (Dec), Empire Manufacturing,

Fed Harker, Kaplan speak, Beige Book; Thu has Retail sales (Dec),

Philly Fed (Jan); Fri has Net TIC Flows (Nov), Building Permits,

housing starts (Dec), Fed Harker speaks, Capacity utilization and

industrial production (Dec). Separately, non-voter Fed Bostic said

he sees no impetus for the Fed to stimulate or cool activity. Also

non-voter Fed Rosengren, on the other hand, is more concerned

about the potential for above-target inflation and inflation asset

bubbles.

EURUSD – Rising Slowly. EURUSD was last seen around 1.1140, a

tad higher on USD weakness. We eye the breach of the 1.1145-

resistance that was tested yesterday. The area of resistnace

between 1.1145-1.1208 has to be cleared for the next leg of

upmove to come. Otherwise, this pair risk falling back beyond the

1.10=figure, a head and shoulders formation. 21-dma has crossed

the 200-dma to the upside, a bullish signal and underpins our

preference to buy dips. Immediate support at 1.1090 (50 DMA).

Week ahead has ECB's Yves Mersch Speaks on Tue; Wed has

Industrial Production (Nov), Trade balance (Nov); Fri has

Construction output (Nov); CPI (Dec).

GBPUSD – Biased to the Downside. GBP was last seen around

1.2990. GBPUSD players are now already concerned about the

transition phase (that lasts for the rest of the year) and whether

EU-UK can reach a trade deal. There is also increasing expectations

for a rate cut after Vlieghe spoke about voting for a cut if data

does not improve. The sudden revival of a rate action by the BoE

could add more volatility for the GBPUSD although we remain

constructive on GBP’s outlook and favor buying dips. Growth-wise,

recession is likely to be avoided as private investments,

government spending and consumption are expected to rebound.

Chancellor Javid had announced budget date on 11 Mar and pledges

to unleash decade of renewal, seizing opportunities on Brexit. He

14 January 2020 3


told MPs that innovative forms of finance could be considered to

pay for infrastructure investment. We do see the time challenges

(<1y) in ironing out a new FTA deal with EU as what von de Leyen

had warned. Fears of another no-deal brexit on 31 Dec 2020 (if UK

cannot forge a new trade deal with EU) could return intermittently

to keep bullish sentiment in check, and that could limit GBP

gains. Bullish momentum on weekly chart remains intact.

Resistance at 1.32, 1.3290 levels. Support at 1.3010 (50 DMA).

Accumulate GBP dips preferred. Week ahead has Trade (Nov),

industrial production, manufacturing production, construction

output (Nov), monthly GDP (Nov) on Mon; Wed has CPI, PPI, RPI

(Dec); Fri has Retail sales (Dec).

USDJPY – Still Buoyed. Pair broke through interim resistance at

109.70 yesterday, after multiple prior attempts. Last seen at

110.08. Modest boost this morning was seen as reports of US

removing China’s currency manipulator label led to optimism on

US-China relations. On the Middle East situation, we note that

Iran’s admission that it accidentally shot down a Ukrainian jetliner,

after its initial denial, has also brought along a wave of global

condemnation. In this instance, concerted international pressure

may actually lead Iran to be cautious in its next political steps, and

risk of immediate escalation in tensions could be relatively low at

the moment. This could lead demand for haven assets to be on the

backfoot in the interim. Current account balance for Nov came in

this morning at JPY1436.8bn, quite near the JPY1423.3bn

expected. Other key data releases this week include Nov Core

Machine Orders on Thurs as well as the Tertiary Industry Index on

Fri. Both indicators are expected to see mild sequential gains after

prior contractions, and could be indicative of some stabilization in

(soft) domestic growth momentum. Momentum on daily chart is

mildly bullish, while stochastics appear to be climbing towards

near-overbought conditions. Resistance at 110.50 (76.4% fibo

retracement from 2019 high to low). 109.70 (Dec high) has turned

from resistance to support. Further support may be found at 109.00

(21, 50 DMA), followed by 108.50-108.60 levels.

AUDUSD – Supported. AUDUSD is supported, last seen around

0.6906. We monitor the occurrence of the golden cross with the

50-dma close to crossing the 200-dma to the upside, a bullish

signal. Resistance at 0.6930 before 0.6990. Supports seen at 0.6830

(38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the Jul-Aug 2019 fall, also the

100-dma) before the next at 0.6770. Moves from this point could

be more consolidative with potential support eyed at the 100-dma

at 0.6830, also a key diagonal support level that is formed since

the low of Oct. Failure to break that can mean a rebound and

continuation of a gentle uptrend. Week ahead has Nov trade data,

Wespac consumer conf index (Jan) on Thu and retail sales on

Fri. At home, rate cut probability in the Feb meeting has risen

based on the Australian cash rate futures from 38% seen around the

last week of Christmas to 53% as of writing as the bushfire

continues to rage on in a scale never seen before. While fiscal

stimulus is already unleashed by the government, data is still

lacking on consumer sentiment and activity. We do not expect RBA

14 January 2020 4


to ease in a hurry. We expect RBA to reiterate the need for “an

extended period of low interest rates required in Australia to reach

full employment and achieve the inflation target” at the next

policy meeting in Feb. Melbourne Institute Inflation (Dec) on Wed;

Thu has Investor Loan Value (Nov).

NZDUSD – Buy on Dips. NZD was last seen at 0.6631, having traded

ranged yesterday and this morning. Building permits for Nov came

in at -8.5%m/m this morning, deteriorating from the revised -1.3%

prior. We note though that earlier consumer confidence and retail

indicators were still positive. Stochastics are in near-oversold

positions and a golden cross pattern – 50 DMA cutting 200 DMA to

the upside – bullish signal, has also occurred late last week.

Nonetheless, bearish momentum on daily chart remains intact.

Despite conflicting signals, bias to buy dips still. Support at 0.6520

(50, 200 DMAs). Resistance at 0.6720, 0.6760 levels. Food prices

(Dec) due Wed, Mfg PMI (Dec) due Fri.

USDCAD – Rising. USDCAD hovered around 1.3050 as USD softens

along with oil prices. USDCAD was last seen around 1.3060. Support

is seen around 1.3040 before the next at 1.2950. Momentum has

turned bullish and resistance at 1.3096 (21-dma, 38.2% Fibonacci

retracement of the Nov-Jan decline). Support is seen at around

1.2860 beyond the current 1.2950.

14 January 2020 5


Asia ex Japan Currencies

SGD trades around 1.66% above the implied mid-point of 1.3689

with the top estimated at 1.3415 and the floor at 1.3963.

USDSGD – Watch out for Swings Precipitated by Deal Signing.

Pair continued to head lower, benefiting from benign regional

sentiments as the trade deal signing nears. Reports of US removing

China’s currency manipulator label also likely helped. Last seen at

1.3460. We have been suggesting 1.3450 as a strong interim support

in our daily reports since early last week. Thus far this has held up

relatively well despite modest swings, but we’re cautious of

volatility associated with the actual trade deal signing tomorrow.

A bout of exuberance on Asian assets could bring the pair nearer

1.34, but we do not rule out reversal in momentum post the event.

Non-oil domestic exports for Dec due Fri is expected to contract by

a smaller extent (-2.0%) compared to prior (-5.9%), underscoring the

house view that the bottoming out in macro outcomes is near.

Momentum on daily chart is mildly bullish while stochastics are

inching lower. Besides 1.3450 (2019 lows in Feb, Mar, Dec), next

support some distance away at 1.3370. Resistance at 1.3560 (23.6%

fibo retracement from Sep high to Dec low), 1.3640 (38.2% fibo).

SGDMYR – Risk of Modest Rebound. SGDMYR moved lower again;

last seen at 3.0136. MYR continued to benefit more from

improvement in regional sentiments (compared to SGD), especially

as US-China trade deal signing nears. Bearish momentum on daily

chart remains intact but stochastics are in oversold conditions.

Modest rebound not ruled out. 3.00 should be a strong support.

Resistance at 3.03, 3.0420 (200 DMA), 3.0470 (100 DMA).

AUDSGD – Consolidative. AUDSGD traded sideways was last seen

around 0.9290. Stochastics seem to show signs of turning higher and

focus could be to the upside from here. Support is seen at 0.9230 –

a level that has been tested multiple times in the last six months

and held. Resistance at 0.9320 (23.6% fibo retracement of the Jul-

Aug fall, 50-dma).

USDMYR – Bearish but Oversold. USDMYR is now trading near 2019

low of 4.0540. Momentum on daily chart is still bearish, while

stochastics are flashing oversold signals. Support at 4.0540 (2019

low), 4.04, then 4.00. Resistances at 4.08, 4.10 levels.

1m USDKRW NDF – Still Bearish. NDF headed lower this morning as

news of US removing China’s currency manipulator label boosted

risk-on proxies. NDF was last seen at 1150. Besides actual trade

deal signing tomorrow, key event is BoK decision this Friday. We

expect BoK to be on Hold at 1.25% to allow for earlier rate cut in Oct to

work its way through the real economy. A headline GDP slipping below

2%, or sequential inflation momentum slipping below zero persistently

could portend a more dovish stance by BoK later on, but a rate cut this

round would be less likely. Confirmation of the rate pause by BoK could

help the 1m USDKRW NDF hang below 1160 levels. Support at 1154,

then 1148, then 1135. Resistance at 1160, 1169, 1178. Trade prices,

unemployment rate due Wed, BoK rate decision due Fri.

14 January 2020 6


USDCNH – Pressing Lower. USDCNH was last seen around 6.8744,

last seen around 6.8710. As we have said, the USDCNH is anchored

(relative to other USDAsians) by the upcoming US-China trade deal

on 15th Jan. Next support beyond the nearby 6.8710 is seen at

6.8170. Week ahead has liquidity numbers including aggregate

financing for Dec, money supply and new yuan loans from 10-15th

Jan, Dec trade is due today before new home sales on Thu and

retail sales, property investment , industrial production and FAI ex

rural and GDP on Fri. We continue to look for CNHPHP to head

towards 7.4850. The cross is last seen around 7.3020. Over the

weekend, Deputy Governor of PBoC Pan Gongsheng told the press

that China’s financial markets liberalization should provide

“relatively big room” for foreign capital inflows. High savings rate

and strong manufacturing industry should keep current account

balanced. The USTR released its semi-annual treasury report and

removed the “currency manipulator” label from China and added

Switzerland into the list of countries being monitored for currency

manipulation.

USDINR 1M NDF – Dragged lower by USDCNH. The return of risk

appetite and lower crude kept this pair under the 71.00. Next

support is seen around 70.75 while resistance levels seen around

71.10 before 71.75. CPI came in well above consensus at 7.35%y/y,

and well above RBI’s inflation target band of 4% (+/-2%). This

underscores the policy constraint that RBI faces in stimulating the

economy. Week ahead has WPI today, trade data on Wed.

1m USDIDR NDF – IDR Strength Still in View. NDF last seen at

around 13,680, having continued to decline yesterday and this

morning. Some residual positive effects of BI's recent signaling that

it will allow the IDR to gain further “in accordance with the market

mechanism, as long as the volatility is manageable”, still seems to

be in play, even as news of US removing China’s currency

manipulator label this morning further boosted sentiments.

Nonetheless, we think that further gains in IDR post the actual deal

signing tomorrow could be capped. Currency strength has to be

eventually aligned with fundamentals, and risks to the growth

outlook, concerns over fiscal deficits etc. are still intact for 2020.

Any short-run move below 13,600 might see some tentative

pullback. On the other hand, concerns over labor union protests

over Jokowi’s omnibus bill would likely not add excessively to

market concerns. Momentum on daily chart is modestly bearish

while stochastics are in oversold conditions. Support at 13,600,

then 13,400. Resistance at 13,860 (recent low), 14,040 (50 DMA).

Trade data due Wed.

14 January 2020 7


Malaysia Fixed Income

Rates Indicators

MGS Previous Bus. Day Yesterday’s Close Change (bps)

3YR MI 3/22 3.01 3.02 +1

5YR MI 6/24 3.16 3.16 Unchanged

7YR MK 7/26 3.26 3.26 Unchanged

10YR MO 8/29 3.27 3.28 +1

15YR MS 7/34 3.49 3.49 Unchanged

20YR MY 5/40 3.60 3.60 Unchanged

30YR MZ 7/48 3.96 3.94 -2

IRS

6-months 3.30 3.29 -1

9-months 3.28 3.28 -

1-year 3.26 3.26 -

3-year 3.26 3.26 -

5-year 3.29 3.28 -1

7-year 3.33 3.33 -

10-year 3.41 3.40 -1

Source: Maybank KE

*Indicative levels

Global: Export Growth (% YoY,

Government bonds largely rangebound as levels and sentiment were

supported by the stronger Ringgit against the USD. Long tenor

government bonds were also buoyed by continuing appetite for

duration. GIIs were also little changed from previous close. For the

WI session of the 15y GII 11/34 reopening, the issue was dealt 5bps

lower at 3.53%.

MYR IRS declined about 1bp on selected tenors in a muted session.

Market only had quotes up to the 5y tenor and despite the 2y being

quoted at 3.24% choice for almost the entire afternoon, nothing was

dealt. 3M KLIBOR stood at 3.33%.

Local corporate bonds were mixed as profit taking arose, albeit

selectively. In GG space, yields of LPPSA fell 2bps, Prasarana and

Danainfra up 2bps, while PTPTN was unchanged. Most AAA credits

such as PASB, PLUS and GENM traded 2bps lower in yield, while

Aman bonds underperformed trading 5bps higher in yield. The AA

space saw buying in SPG, which traded 3bps lower in yield, while

other names such as UMWH, Tanjung BP and IJM were unchanged.

Analysts

Winson Phoon

(65) 6812 8807

[email protected]

Se Tho Mun Yi

(603) 2074 7606

[email protected]

14 January 2020 8


Singapore Fixed Income

Rates Indicators

SGS Previous Bus. Day Yesterday’s Close Change (bps)

2YR 1.47 1.46 -1

5YR 1.55 1.54 -1

10YR 1.74 1.75 +1

15YR 1.85 1.85 -

20YR 1.93 1.93 -

30YR 2.09 2.09 -

Source: MAS

SGS prices opened higher in line with UST following the softer than

expected jobs report, but the long end quickly shed gains which

resulted in a marginally steeper yield curve. Market may continue to

see steepening bias as SGS auctions in the next 2 months are long

tenor 10y and 30y bonds. SGD IRS rates were little changed from

previous close.

Asian USD credit market was subdued given Japan market was closed

for a holiday and a packed primary pipeline with new issuances from

Korea, China, Indonesia and Hong Kong sidelined the secondary

market. Following the uninspiring jobs report, credit spreads broadly

widen by 1-2bps, especially for bonds that rallied last week. China

HY property sector saw some demand for the better quality names

as the PBOC easing and possible further RRR cuts lend support to the

sector.

14 January 2020 9


Indonesia Fixed Income

Rates Indicators

IDR Gov’t Bonds Previous Bus. Day Yesterday’s Close Change

(bp)

1YR 5.05 5.03 (0.03)

3YR 6.11 6.04 (0.07)

5YR 6.25 6.20 (0.05)

10YR 6.93 6.87 (0.06)

15YR 7.36 7.32 (0.04)

20YR 7.50 7.46 (0.04)

30YR 7.64 7.67 0.03

* Source: Bloomberg, Maybank Indonesia

Global: Export Growth (% YoY,signif

Indonesia government bonds sustained appreciation trends yesterday.

investors shifted their focus from Middle East tensions to the expected

signing of a trade deal between the United States and China. It triggered

money inflow to the emerging markets, such as Indonesia. The U.S.-

China Phase 1 agreement, due to be signed at the White House on

Wednesday, marks the first step toward ending a damaging 18-month

trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies. Today, local

investors will focus to government’s Sukuk auction. The government

targets Rp7 trillion of absorption from this sukuk auction. We believe

today’s Sukuk auction will get strong attention from investors that

seeking high investment yields. Several series that will be released for

this Sukuk auction are SPN-S 15072020 (new issuance), PBS002

(reopening), PBS026 (reopening), PBS005 (reopening).

Meanwhile, in early 2020, the Indonesian government has successfully

sold global bonds in US$ and Euro denomination. The government took a

good momentum in the global financial markets for optimizing its debt

facility for financing the state budget in early year. The government

released RI0230, RI0250, and RIEUR0227 by US$ 1.2 billion, US$0.8

billion, and EUR1 billion, subsequently, with coupon rates by 2.850%,

3.500%, and 0.900%, respectively. Those series of global bonds have

tenors by 10 year, 30-year, and 7-year tenor, respectively. It also

received a Baa2 rating from Moody's, BBB from Standard & Poor's, and

BBB from Fitch.

Analysts

Myrdal Gunarto

(62) 21 2922 8888 ext 29695

[email protected]

14 January 2020 10


Equity Indices and Key Commodities

Value % C hange

D o w 28,907.05 0.29

N asdaq 9,273.93 1.04

N ikkei 225 23,850.57 0.47

F T SE 7,617.60 0.39

A ustralia A SX 200 6,903.67 -0.37

Singapo re Straits

T imes3,251.07 -0.15

Kuala Lumpur

C o mpo site1,584.73 -0.42

Jakarta C o mpo site 6,296.57 0.34

P hilippines

C o mpo site7,776.77 -0.27

T aiwan T A IEX 12,113.42 0.74

Ko rea KOSP I 2,229.26 1.04

Shanghai C o mp Index 3,115.57 0.75

H o ng Ko ng H ang

Seng28,954.94 1.11

India Sensex 41,859.69 0.62

N ymex C rude Oil WT I 58.08 -1.63

C o mex Go ld 1,550.60 -0.61

R euters C R B Index 183.01 -0.61

M B B KL 8.65 0.00

Rates Current (%)Upcoming CB

MeetingMBB Expectation

MAS SGD 3-Month

SIBOR1.7710 Apr-20 Easing Bias

BNM O/N Policy Rate 3.00 22/1/2020 Easing Bias

BI 7-Day Reverse Repo

Rate5.00 23/1/2020 Easing

BOT 1-Day Repo 1.25 5/2/2020 Neutral

BSP O/N Reverse Repo 4.00 6/2/2020 Easing

CBC Discount Rate 1.38 19/3/2020 Neutral

HKMA Base Rate 2.00 - Neutral

PBOC 1Y Lending Rate 4.35 - Easing

RBI Repo Rate 5.15 6/2/2020 Easing

BOK Base Rate 1.25 17/1/2020 Easing

Fed Funds Target Rate 1.75 30/1/2020 Easing

ECB Deposit Facility

Rate-0.50 23/1/2020 Easing Bias

BOE Official Bank Rate 0.75 30/1/2020 Neutral

RBA Cash Rate Target 0.75 4/2/2020 Easing Bias

RBNZ Official Cash Rate 1.00 12/2/2020 Easing Bias

BOJ Rate -0.10 21/1/2020 Easing

BoC O/N Rate 1.75 22/1/2020 Neutral

Policy Rates

Foreign Exchange: Daily LevelsEUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD GBP/USD USD/CNH NZD/USD EUR/JPY AUD/JPY

R2 1.1165 110.28 0.6940 1.3108 6.9300 0.6667 123.0733 76.3467

R1 1.1150 110.12 0.6922 1.3048 6.9062 0.6649 122.7467 76.1233

Current 1.1139 110.15 0.6905 1.2995 6.8750 0.6627 122.6900 76.0620

S1 1.1116 109.62 0.6884 1.2945 6.8694 0.6617 121.8367 75.5633

S2 1.1097 109.28 0.6864 1.2902 6.8564 0.6603 121.2533 75.2267

USD/SGD USD/MYR USD/IDR USD/PHP USD/THB EUR/SGD CNY/MYR SGD/MYR

R2 1.3508 4.0762 13768 50.7403 30.3300 1.5028 0.5948 3.0264

R1 1.3487 4.0693 13720 50.7377 30.2750 1.5011 0.5920 3.0217

Current 1.3461 4.0580 13675 50.4760 30.2130 1.4994 0.5896 3.0149

S1 1.3452 4.0583 13649 50.5267 30.1600 1.4973 0.5861 3.0137

S2 1.3438 4.0542 13626 50.3183 30.1000 1.4952 0.5829 3.0104

*Values calculated based on pivots, a formula that projects support/resistance for the day.

14 January 2020 11


MYR Bonds Trades Details

MGS & GII Coupon Maturity

Date Volume (RM ‘m)

Last Done Day High Day Low

MGS 6/2012 3.492% 31.03.2020 3.492% 31-Mar-20 181 2.666 2.833 2.666

MGS 6/2013 3.889% 31.07.2020 3.889% 31-Jul-20 92 2.92 2.92 2.83

MGS 3/2015 3.659% 15.10.2020 3.659% 15-Oct-20 416 2.89 2.95 2.839

MGS 1/2011 4.16% 15.07.2021 4.160% 15-Jul-21 4 2.981 3.001 2.981

MGS 3/2014 4.048% 30.09.2021 4.048% 30-Sep-21 4 3.032 3.032 3.032

MGS 4/2016 3.620% 30.11.2021 3.620% 30-Nov-21 41 3.034 3.034 2.985

MGS 1/2017 3.882% 10.03.2022 3.882% 10-Mar-22 358 3.02 3.03 2.991

MGS 1/2012 3.418% 15.08.2022 3.418% 15-Aug-22 43 3.044 3.057 3.044

MGS 3/2013 3.480% 15.03.2023 3.480% 15-Mar-23 60 3.095 3.108 3.09

MGS 2/2018 3.757% 20.04.2023 3.757% 20-Apr-23 25 3.097 3.097 3.097

MGS 3/2019 3.478% 14.06.2024 3.478% 14-Jun-24 293 3.16 3.172 3.151

MGS 2/2017 4.059% 30.09.2024 4.059% 30-Sep-24 3 3.166 3.166 3.166

MGS 1/2015 3.955% 15.09.2025 3.955% 15-Sep-25 1 3.187 3.187 3.187

MGS 1/2019 3.906% 15.07.2026 3.906% 15-Jul-26 30 3.254 3.266 3.236

MGS 3/2016 3.900% 30.11.2026 3.900% 30-Nov-26 1 3.262 3.262 3.262

MGS 3/2007 3.502% 31.05.2027 3.502% 31-May-27 310 3.263 3.263 3.256

MGS 4/2017 3.899% 16.11.2027 3.899% 16-Nov-27 34 3.286 3.305 3.286

MGS 2/2019 3.885% 15.08.2029 3.885% 15-Aug-29 43 3.279 3.285 3.242

MGS 4/2011 4.232% 30.06.2031 4.232% 30-Jun-31 30 3.455 3.455 3.455

MGS 4/2013 3.844% 15.04.2033 3.844% 15-Apr-33 100 3.52 3.529 3.51

MGS 3/2018 4.642% 07.11.2033 4.642% 07-Nov-33 497 3.519 3.536 3.519

MGS 4/2015 4.254% 31.05.2035 4.254% 31-May-35 40 3.597 3.605 3.597

MGS 4/2018 4.893% 08.06.2038 4.893% 08-Jun-38 11 3.633 3.633 3.633

MGS 5/2019 3.757% 22.05.2040 3.757% 22-May-40 1 3.593 3.593 3.593

MGS 2/2016 4.736% 15.03.2046 4.736% 15-Mar-46 146 3.992 3.998 3.992

MGS 5/2018 4.921% 06.07.2048 4.921% 06-Jul-48 192 3.943 3.977 3.924 GII MURABAHAH 4/2016 3.226% 15.04.2020 3.226% 15-Apr-20 40 2.889 2.889 2.889

PROFIT-BASED GII 7/2012 15.05.2020 3.576% 15-May-20 5 2.962 2.962 2.962 GII MURABAHAH 3/2018 4.094% 30.11.2023 4.094% 30-Nov-23 160 3.155 3.163 3.155 GII MURABAHAH 4/2019 3.655% 15.10.2024 3.655% 15-Oct-24 90 3.192 3.192 3.186 GII MURABAHAH 1/2018 4.128% 15.08.2025 4.128% 15-Aug-25 220 3.25 3.25 3.24 GII MURABAHAH 3/2019 3.726% 31.03.2026 3.726% 31-Mar-26 40 3.277 3.277 3.274 GII MURABAHAH 3/2016 4.070% 30.09.2026 4.070% 30-Sep-26 140 3.307 3.307 3.304 GII MURABAHAH 2/2018 4.369% 31.10.2028 4.369% 31-Oct-28 5 3.359 3.359 3.359 GII MURABAHAH 1/2019 4.130% 09.07.2029 4.130% 09-Jul-29 10 3.361 3.361 3.361 GII MURABAHAH 3/2015 4.245% 30.09.2030 4.245% 30-Sep-30 280 3.424 3.446 3.424 GII MURABAHAH 6/2017 4.724% 15.06.2033 4.724% 15-Jun-33 330 3.545 3.549 3.545 GII MURABAHAH 5/2013 4.582% 30.08.2033 4.582% 30-Aug-33 60 3.556 3.56 3.556 GII MURABAHAH 6/2019 4.119% 30.11.2034 4.119% 30-Nov-34 30 3.553 3.553 3.53 GII MURABAHAH 2/2019 4.467% 15.09.2039 4.467% 15-Sep-39 20 3.659 3.663 3.659

Total 4,386

Sources: BPAM

14 January 2020 12


MYR Bonds Trades Details

PDS Rating Coupon Maturity

Date Volume (RM ‘m)

Last Done

Day High

Day Low

LPPSA IMTN 4.050% 21.09.2026 - Tranche No 4 GG 4.050% 21-Sep-26 10 3.369 3.372 3.369

PRASARANA IMTN 4.64% 22.03.2030 - Series 3 GG 4.640% 22-Mar-30 10 3.518 3.518 3.518

PRASARANA IMTN 4.75% 26.02.2031 - Series 9 GG 4.750% 26-Feb-31 25 3.57 3.57 3.568

PRASARANA IMTN 4.380% 12.03.2031 - Tranche 4 GG 4.380% 12-Mar-31 15 3.57 3.57 3.57

DANAINFRA IMTN 4.570% 02.05.2031 - Tranche No 45 GG 4.570% 02-May-31 10 3.569 3.569 3.569

PTPTN IMTN 13.03.2037 GG 4.950% 13-Mar-37 20 3.799 3.8 3.799

LPPSA IMTN 4.850% 29.10.2038 - Tranche No 25 GG 4.850% 29-Oct-38 50 3.819 3.821 3.819

LPPSA IMTN 4.580% 11.04.2039 - Tranche No 31 GG 4.580% 11-Apr-39 50 3.829 3.831 3.829

BPMB IMTN 4.28% 02.03.2022 - Issue No 10 AAA 4.280% 02-Mar-22 40 3.465 3.473 3.465

DANUM IMTN 3.960% 09.05.2023 - Tranche 3 AAA (S) 3.960% 09-May-23 20 3.422 3.422 3.422

GENM CAPITAL MTN 3651D 22.8.2025 AAA (S) 4.900% 22-Aug-25 50 3.821 3.859 3.817

DANUM IMTN 4.300% 13.02.2026 - Tranche 1 AAA (S) 4.300% 13-Feb-26 30 3.5 3.5 3.5

PLUS BERHAD IMTN 4.800% 12.01.2027 - Series 1 (11) AAA IS 4.800% 12-Jan-27 30 3.598 3.611 3.598

GENM CAPITAL MTN 3652D 31.3.2027 AAA (S) 4.980% 31-Mar-27 20 3.902 3.902 3.899

AMAN IMTN 4.400% 12.04.2027 - Tranche No. 18 AAA IS 4.400% 12-Apr-27 40 3.662 3.664 3.662


RP II IMTN 5.600% 16.06.2028 AAA IS (FG) 5.600% 16-Jun-28 10 4.03 4.051 4.03

STARBRIGHT ABSMTN 3288D 27.12.2028 - Tranche No. 9 AAA 4.550% 27-Dec-28 5 4.579 4.579 4.579

PASB IMTN 4.540% 23.02.2029 - Issue No. 12 AAA 4.540% 23-Feb-29 10 3.648 3.65 3.648


UMWH IMTN 4.650% 13.09.2023 AA2 4.650% 13-Sep-23 10 3.62 3.623 3.62

FPSB IMTN 5.050% 05.09.2025 AA IS 5.050% 05-Sep-25 10 3.859 3.863 3.859

FPSB IMTN 5.050% 31.10.2025 AA IS 5.050% 31-Oct-25 10 3.87 3.874 3.87

TANJUNG BP IMTN 5.280% 16.08.2027 AA2 5.280% 16-Aug-27 10 3.978 3.981 3.978

SEGI ASTANA MTN 2191D 08.1.2024 AA- 5.300% 08-Jan-24 1 5.201 5.201 5.201

IJM IMTN 5.050% 18.08.2028 AA3 5.050% 18-Aug-28 10 4.207 4.209 4.207

SPG IMTN 5.130% 31.10.2029 AA- IS 5.130% 31-Oct-29 10 3.909 3.911 3.909

AFFINBANK SUBORDINATED MTN 3652D 20.9.2027 A1 5.030% 20-Sep-27 10 3.814 3.818 3.814

CIMB 4.880% Perpetual Capital Securities - T4 A1 4.880% 25-May-16 2 4.201 4.507 4.201

UMWH Perpetual Sukuk Musharakah 6.35% - Tranche 1 A1 6.350% 20-Apr-18 10 4.486 4.492 4.486 IJM LAND 5.650% PERPETUAL SUKUK MUSHARAKAH -S1 T1 A2 (S) 5.650% 17-Mar-19 11 4.503 4.719 4.497 IJM LAND 4.730% PERPETUAL SUKUK MUSHARAKAH -S2 T3 A2 (S) 4.730% 17-Mar-19 10 4.617 4.619 4.617

Total 620

Sources: BPAM

14 January 2020 13


DISCLAIMER

This report is for information purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities or financial instruments referred to herein, or an offer or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any investment strategy. Investors should note that income from such securities or financial instruments, if any, may fluctuate and that each security’s or financial instrument’s price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities and/or financial instruments or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by Malayan Banking Berhad and/or its affiliates and related corporations (collectively, “Maybank”) and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by Maybank and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, no liability can be accepted for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Maybank and its officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities and/or financial instruments referred to herein and may further act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and/or financial instruments and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies whose securities are mentioned in this report. Any information or opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice.

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This report is prepared for the use of Maybank’s clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of Maybank. Maybank accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

14 January 2020 14


Published by:

Malayan Banking Berhad (Incorporated In Malaysia)

Foreign Exchange

Sales

Singapore Indonesia Malaysia

Saktiandi Supaat Juniman Azman Amiruddin Shah bin Mohamad Shah

Head, FX Research Chief Economist, Indonesia Head, Sales-Malaysia, GB-Global Markets

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

(+65) 6320 1379 (+62) 21 2922 8888 ext 29682 (+60) 03-2173 4188

Christopher Wong Myrdal Gunarto Singapore

Senior FX Strategist Industry Analyst Janice Loh Ai Lin

[email protected] [email protected] Co-Head of Sales, Singapore

(+65) 6320 1347 (+62) 21 2922 8888 ext 29695 [email protected]

(+65) 6536 1336

Fiona Lim

Senior FX Strategist Joanna Leong Wan Yi

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(+65) 6320 1374 [email protected]

Yanxi Tan

(+65) 6320 1511

FX Strategist Indonesia

[email protected] Endang Yulianti Rahayu

(+65) 6320 1378 Head of Sales, Indonesia

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(+62) 21 29936318 or

Fixed Income (+62) 2922 8888 ext 29611

Malaysia

Winson Phoon Wai Kien

Shanghai

Fixed Income Analyst

Joyce Ha

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Treasury Sales Manager

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Se Tho Mun Yi

Fixed Income Analyst Hong Kong

[email protected] Joanne Lam Sum Sum

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