No. 1March 12, 2006, ITB Berlin, Germany

S·P·A·C·E TOURISMDr.-Ing. Robert Alexander Goehlich

www.goehlich.com

© Robert A. Goehlich

No. 2

Content

Part I- Definition- Stages of Space Tourism

Part II- Mass Space Tourism versus Individual Space Tourism- Tourist Attractions in Space- Space Advertising- Space Nutrition

Part III- Example: Economic Research of Space Tourism

Part IV- Future of Space Tourism

No. 3

Part I:

Definition and Stages of Space Tourism

No. 4

Definition

„Space tourism is the term broadly applied to the concept of paying customers traveling beyond Earth's atmosphere.“

Definition of Space Tourism (Version I)

Example: Dennis Tito (ISS in April 2001) can be seen as the first space tourist.

No. 5

Definition

“Space tourism can be defined to include not only the vehicles that take public passengers into space, but also from the perspective of the "destination" paradigm. As such, the industry can be envisioned to include not only earth-based attractions that simulate the space experience such as space theme parks, space training camps, virtual reality facilities, multi-media interactive games and telerobotic moon rovers controlled from Earth, but also parabolic flights, vertical suborbital flights, orbital flights lasting up to 3 days, or week-long stays at a floating space hotel, including participatory educational, research and entertainment experiences as well as space sports competitions (i.e. space Olympics).” (Space Policy Institute, 2002)

Definition of Space Tourism (Version II)

Example:

Space camp at the Yuri Gagarin Cosmonaut Training Center at the Russian Star City. Training in a neutral buoyancy hydrolab for $7000 is shown in the picture.

No. 6

Definition

Definition varies between nations and organizations concerning different points of view. In this study, it is defined as 100 km above sea level.

Where does Space begin?

3 km: human is not operating efficiently

5,3 km: supplemental oxygen necessary

16 km: pressure suit necessary

20 km: pressurized cabin necessary

32 km: turbo ramjet necessary

24 km: oxygen bottle necessary

81 km: astronaut wings (US DoD)

100 km: no aerodynamic forces

45 km: rocket engine necessary

No. 7

Stages of Space Tourism

This stage includes all naturalphenomenon or industrialproducts in direct correlationto space, which are normallylow-priced to observe or to experience.

Stage 1: Nature Attractions and Others

Example: Natural PhenomenonSuch as starry sky, shootingstar, northern lights, eclipse of the sun, lunar eclipse, etc.

Example: Industrial ProductsSuch as space food, spaceproofed pen, space proofed wristwatch, etc.

No. 8

Stages of Space TourismStage 2: Terrestrial Tour

Example: Space Camps

Space camps are mainly located at Huntsville, Alabama, and Yuri Gagarin Cosmonaut Training Center at Russian Star City nearby Moscow. Duration is from two to four days and it is offered one or more of the following attractions: training in a centrifuge for $1700, training in a neutral buoyancy hydrolab for $7000 or training in a Soyuz simulator for $8500.

No. 9

Stages of Space TourismStage 2: Terrestrial Tour

(movie)

No. 10

Stages of Space TourismStage 3: Parabolic Flight

(ESA)

No. 11

Stages of Space TourismStage 3: Parabolic Flight

(movie)

No. 12

Stages of Space Tourism

Passengers in a high-altitude aircraft at up to 25 km altitude can see the curvature of the Earth below and the dark sky of space above. Space Adventures, Inc. offers MiG-25 flights for about $13 000. Alternatively, MiG-21, MiG-23, MiG-29 and Su-30 can be used, too.

Stage 4: High-altitude Flight

Example:

High-altitude passenger in Russian Mig-25 (Space Adventures)

No. 13

Stages of Space Tourism

Suborbital space flight for tourism can be defined by the following term: “Customers go on a quick ballistic flight in a spacecraft into space, get a few minutes of weightlessness and then return to Earth, without reaching orbit.”

Stage 5: Suborbital Flight

Example:Suborbital Flight by using Ascender (Bristol Space-planes)

No. 14

Stages of Space TourismStage 5: Suborbital Flight

(movie)

No. 15

Stages of Space Tourism

Orbital flights would allow passengers to watch different continents and many sunsets and sunrises. There would be plenty of time for experiences in weightlessness.

Stage 6: Orbital Flight

Example:

Orbital Flight by using Kankoh Maru (Kawasaki)

No. 16

Stages of Space TourismStage 6: Orbital Flight - Pax Compartment Design

(Isozaki et al.)

No. 17

(JAXA)

Stages of Space TourismStage 6: Orbital Flight - Demonstrator

No. 18

Stages of Space Tourism

The first hotel would have zero gravity, but future designs call for a hotel that might rotate once per minute to create a gravitational pull one-third as strong as Earth's one.

Stage 7: Orbital Flight plus Hotel Stay

Example:

Orbital Flight to Rotating Space Hotel (Space Island Group)

No. 19

Stages of Space Tourism

When compared to a simple orbital flight, the complexity of the scenario increases significantly for a Moon trip. Total delta velocity ∆V required for the entire mission is of the order of 20 km/s. In the context of space tourism, Moon trips are unlikely in short term but mighthappen in long term.

Stage 8: Moon Flight

Example:Holiday on the Moon(ESA)

No. 20

Stages of Space Tourism

USA, Russia and China have plans to send astronauts to Mars. The main problem, the reduction of travel time, has not yet been resolved. It is highly unlikely that space tourists in coming decades would fly to Mars, but not impossible.

Stage 9: Mars Flight

Example: Holiday on the Mars(Phil Smith)

No. 21

Stages of Space Tourism

Space tourism flights to other planets beside Mars are not imaginable with even improved assumed rocket propulsion technology such as fusion or fission engines due to still very long travel times.

Stage 10: Titan Flight and Beyond

Example: Saturn as seen fromTitan ( Novaspace)

No. 22

Stages on Mass Space TourismSummary

RealizedPriceDescriptionStage

yes$0-$500Nature Attractions + Others1yes$22-$8500Terrestrial Tour2yes$5000Parabolic Flight3yes$13 000High-altitude Flight4no($100 000)Suborbital Flight5no($300 000)Orbital Flight6no($400 000)Orbital Flight + Hotel Stay7no(?)Moon Flight8no(?)Mars Flight9no(?)Titan Flight and Beyond10

Def

initi

on 2

Def

initi

on 1

No. 23

Part II:

Frame of Space Tourism

No. 24

Individual Space Tourism Mass Space Tourism

Mass versus Individual Space TourismSummary

• Thousands of tourists per year.• Potential for low prices due to high

launch frequency.• Mostly Reusable Launch Vehicles• High program investment costs.

• A few tourists per year.• Prices would stay high due to low

launch frequency.• Mostly Expendable Launch Vehicles• Good advertising for space tourism

No. 25

Tourist Attractions in Space

Watch the Earth

Watch Space

Play with food

Float around

Receive astronaut wings

Make videos and pictures

Wedding

Ceremony

No. 26

Space Advertising

High levels of technology, investments and health required for manned missions cause people to associate space with success, elitism and exclusivity. The stronger the associations concerning a product, the easier it is to sell, because space has a natural capability to sell itself.

Omega’s “only watch worn on the Moon”

Givenchy’s launcher shaped perfume bottle

Lego’s “Life on Mars”

No. 27

Space Nutrition

Early flights showed that astronauts did not eat enough due to lack of appetite. The presentation of more appetizing and varied food has been realized in the last decade. However, for Space Shuttle missions food has still been served in a condensed gelatinous form.

Example: Typical Space Shuttle Menu (Lane, Schoeller)

LemonadeGrape drink-

StrawberriesAlmondsOrange juice

AsparagusShortbread cookies

Oatmeal with brown sugar

Potatoes au gratin

Banana pudding

Seasoned scrambled eggs

BeefsteakTortillaBeef patty

Shrimp cocktailTunaDried pears

DinnerLunchBreakfast

No. 28

Part III:

Economic Research of Space Tourism

No. 29

Space Tourism ResearchPassenger Demand

No. 30

Space Tourism ResearchCorrelation to Ticket Price

Ticket Price

Production Cost

Development Cost

Launch Rate

Year of Full Operational Fleet

Fleet Life-cycleCosts/Receipts

Ticket CostYear of Initial

Operational Capability

Cash Flow

ROI

No. 31

Space Tourism ResearchCorrelation to Ticket Price

Ticket Price

Production Cost

Development Cost

Launch Rate

Year of Full Operational Fleet

Fleet Life-cycle Costs/Receipts

Ticket CostYear of Initial

Operational Capability

Cash Flow

ROI

Ticket Price

Production Cost

Development Cost

Launch Rate

Year of Full Operational Fleet

Fleet Life-cycle Costs/Receipts

Ticket CostYear of Initial

Operational Capability

Cash Flow

ROI

Suborbital Market

RepresentativeTourist RLV: „Hopper Plus“

Ticket Price

Production Cost

Development Cost

Launch Rate

Year of Full Operational Fleet

Fleet Life-cycle Costs/Receipts

Ticket CostYear of Initial

Operational Capability

Cash Flow

ROI

Ticket Price

Production Cost

Development Cost

Launch Rate

Year of Full Operational Fleet

Fleet Life-cycle Costs/Receipts

Ticket CostYear of Initial

Operational Capability

Cash Flow

ROI

Orbital Market

RepresentativeTourist RLV: „Kankoh Maru Plus“

?

No. 32

Space Tourism ResearchUsed Tools

A program processing about 380 input values to determine detailed life-cycle costs on an annualbasis.

TRASIM 2.0 Model

A handbook containing 180 graphs and 30 tables to determine rough life-cycle costs on an average basis.

TRANSCOST 7.0 Model

A program to determine business performances of investigated vehicles.

FINANCE 1.0 Model

No. 33

Space Tourism ResearchOptimized Launch Rate (Hopper Plus)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

50 75 100 125 150Launch Rate [flights/year]

Bre

ak-e

ven

Poin

t [ye

ars]

or R

OI [

%]

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Ave

. Tot

al L

aunc

h C

ost [

M$/

fligh

t]

Break-even PointROIAverage Total Launch Cost

Negativ influence due to non-performance of „Economy of Scales“ effect

Negativ influence due to saturation of annualpassenger demandOptimized

Launch Rate

No. 34

Space Tourism ResearchPrice Strategy

Monopoly

Oligopoly

Oligopoly at a Profit

No. 35

Space Tourism ResearchPromising Steps...

Optimized Period

Hot Spot No. 2Hot Spot No. 1 Hot Spot No. 3

No. 36

Space Tourism Textbooks

ISBN 3-936231-36-2ISBN 3-936846-29-4ISBN 1-894959-50-7Released: March 2006CG Publishing, Canada

No. 37

Part IV:

Future of Space Tourism

No. 38

Past of Space TourismPrivately-Financed Events

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

SpaceShipOne 100 km Flight(June 21, 2004)

SpaceShipOne X Prize Flight(October 4, 2004)

Shuttleworth ISS Flight(April, 2002)

SpaceShipOne X Prize Flight(September 29, 2004)

Tito ISS Flight(April, 2001)

No. 39

Future of Mass Space Tourism

Todayoptimistic

pessimistic

„We are not reallyready for space

tourism yet.“

realisticStart of

Suborbital Flights within15 years and

Orbital Flights within 25 years might be feasible

(= regular flights / air passenger type)

MassSpace

Tourismis not

existing

No. 40

Future of Individual Space Tourism(= non-regular flights / explorer type)

Today

„No further flights to International Space

Station.“

pessimistic

Continued flights to ISS and start of

Suborbital Flights within5 years might be

feasible

realistic

IndividualSpace

Tourismis

existing

optimistic

No. 41

The hope…SpaceShipOne reached 100 km (July 21, 2004)

No. 42

Development of Space Tourism

No. 43

…Thank you