nls - nordiska lärarorganisationers samråd möte i reykjavík 28.-29. september 2011

NLS - Nordiska Lärarorganisationers SamrådMöte i Reykjavík 28.-29. September 2011

The future of educationspeculating about the next 25-30 years

2010-2040

Jón Torfi JónassonSchool of Education University of Iceland,

[email protected] http://www3.hi.is/~jtj/

NLS meeting Reykjavík 29. September 2011

mailto:[email protected]

http://www3.hi.is/~jtj/

Some background

• The background to this speculation:A forecast about the education of the future, written in 1986-1988 on education in Iceland 1985-2010Jón Torfi Jónasson. (1990). Menntun á Íslandi í 25 ár, 1985 - 2010. Reykjavík: Framkvæmdanefnd um framtíðarkönnun. [143 síður]

• Education vs. systems of education, the internal issues of schools and curriculum

– The basic school system, pre-primary, primary, secondary and tertiary and of course life-long learning

• Judgement about our current schools and school system ? No.


Topics for discussion

I. Predicting the future of education, (based on inertia?)

II. Is there an argument for a proactive or a visionary vision of the future? Yes

III. The form of the education for the future: a school?

IV. Food for thought


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27PhDPre-school Primary school - compulsory education Upper secondary Bachelor Master

What does the system look like? Might we change something?


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Skólasókn ólíkra aldurshópa 1950-2010

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Linear (25–29 ára )Gögn fengin úr Hagskinnu og skrám Hagstofu Íslands,september 2011


The future

I. Prediction for the future; future studies, the cliché (it is difficult to predict, especially .... )

II. Several kinds of predictions, mention twoI. A laissez fair (no intervention) prediction, a prediction based on

various forms of inertia where traditional norms and values are in control; the type of prediction I made earlier and should probably make again.

II. A proactive or visionary prediction.

III. Education must think about the future, understand it and anticipate, and not just wait for it to happen.


But is it really possible to predict?

Yes and no, but in important arenas yes; take some examples

All are examples of exponential growth (Albert Bartlett)

I also ask, by the way, who in the “system” are monitoring these changes and suggesting action?I. The increase in the number of students in higher education in Iceland (US,

Japan, the Nordic countries); we know this but not necessarily what they choose.

II. Use of mineral deposits, (but not necessarily their price)III. The development of computer calculating power, viz. Moore’s law, (but

not how it may be utilised).Most of this is robustly regular, not only over 25 years but probably 125 years and the growth 1970-2010 could have been accurately predicted. We know a lot about the future. We should not pretend that we don’t.


http://www.albartlett.org/


Higher education: enrolment in Iceland 1911-1970

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All Icelandic university students in Iceland and abroad as % of average of 20-24 yr cohorts

Exponential trend. All Icelandic university students in Iceland and abroad as % of average of 20-24 yr cohorts based on the years 1911-1970


Higher education: enrolment in Iceland 1911-1970-2010

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All Icelandic university students in Iceland and abroad as % of average of 20-24 yr cohorts

Exponential trend. All Icelandic university students in Iceland and abroad as % of average of 20-24 yr cohorts based on the years 1911-1970

Source: Statistics Iceland


Higher education: enrolment in the US 1900-2008

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Growth rates in US higher education 1900-2008. Actual growth compared to the 1900-1939 exponential and logistic predictions

Males and females corrected for cohort 1900-1939

USA 1900-1939 Males and females exponential prediction

USA 1900-1939 Males and females. S-logistic Limit 700

Expon. (Males and females corrected for cohort 1900-1939)



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Eternal exponetial growth?From Kristín Vala and Harald Sverdrup


The inertia prediction

Educational systems evolve notoriously slowly; their history manifests this very clearly; this applies to their form, operation and content.

The concerns, criticisms and visions of those concerned with education at the beginning of the 20th century were more or less the same as of those expressing themselves at the beginning of the 21st. (Chapter 9 in Reidar Myhres Grunnlinjer i pedagogikkens historie is a must in this context).


Why inertia? There are a number of important reasons.

Traditions and traditional values keep education in the throes of old time. The traditions are strong and so are the forces of inertia which stem from many sources.

They relate to old values, old content and old ways of doing things. Of course some old values should be cherished, but which.


Why inertia? There are a number of important reasons. Reason no. 1

A conservative discourse and ideas of many outside the educational system who naturally control the course of its development.

I am here referring to the views of many parents and politicians; somewhat conservative impetus from industry that the education system serve the economy (yes, but how is that best done ?); teacher education, its content and organisation – related inter alia to the time since a lot of the teaching force graduated; conservative ideas proposed by the university as a European institution about the education of young people and generally outdated notions about content and how new techniques, new content and new cultures could permeate education. As an agent in this would be some well established standardised tests, which volunteer to gracefully take the central stage, marginalising other contenders.



The new ideas that are to replace the old, are often woolly or cloudy, not well moulded and sometimes even vacuous. Some might even not be very good!

This applies inter alia to some new ideas that were proposed during the 20th century, e.g. applied to discovery or project learning, ideas fostering creativity, arts or moral values; this also applies to some of the 21st century skills programmes which have been proposed repeatedly for the last 20-30 years. This will probably also apply to the new basic factors in the new Icelandic curriculum and the EC eight key competencies. This could even become a stumbling block for the Icelandic programme.



One reason why the push to introduce new ideas is somewhat undermined is that the rationale, the utility and ambition behind the introduction of the present ideas some time ago, were all convincing and credible, even though it took a long time for them to win their place.

The proponents of those ideas may still be operative and still think the ideas they adopted or fought for or introduced stand the test of time. This is partly a problem that may be traced to the older (my) generation but may also influence the judgement of those outstanding young people who did so well with the content and operations of the traditional environment.



Nothing dramatic happens if we don't exchange new ideas for old ones. In fact nothing happens. This is the fourth reason why it is somewhat cumbersome to secure the place for new ideas replacing old well established and tested ones.

The only ensuing problem is that young people are not given the opportunities to do a variety of interesting things, that new ideas, new technologies or new cultures might afford them; but of course they will survive nevertheless.



It is especially important for those who want to argue for replacing new with old that one may seriously threaten a variety of vested interests and ideals of those who are already there. This may operate at several levels and perhaps present the most formidable obstacles.



The sixth reason why new ideas don't emerge is that very few people who are engaged in education have the overview or wide perspective over all the different reasons for change. Very few have the responsibility or opportunity to follow the many quite substantial changes in the social and technological and cultural environment and speculate about the possible educational implications. The perspective we, in the educational arena, have is often very narrow, far too narrow.


Thus I have presented a number of reasons why a prediction involving rather modest but gradual development of education is probably reasonable.

But what about a prediction based on a proactive action?

The history of education tells countless stories about ambitious and well thought out successful attempts at recreating the content and practice of education. But somehow the fate of these enterprises has been somewhat less promising than expected.

Nevertheless it is surprisingly long since the last major effort was made to reconstitute the curriculum and practice of education generally. To me this is astounding. Perhaps the last efforts frighten.

Thus the question is, should a serious attempt be made to totally renovate the curriculum? Consider some of the reasons why a positive answer might be given. I think that the Icelandic government is in fact taking some important steps in the right direction.


I will mention 10 reasons why a positive answer may be in order

Each deserves a serious in depth discussion, but here we only have time just to mention each of them.

Some of these arguments on their own might be deemed to be a sufficient cause for rethinking; but I think all of them taken together present quite a powerful case.

But, who are making the case within the field of education? What vision and overview do they have?

Three are local reasons, but perhaps also global ones, but the last seven are definitely global reasons.


Why should we? Local rationale

I. Icelandic laws on education call for this.

II. The discourse in Iceland in the past few years indicates that our education system is not doing nearly enough in the ethical arena.

III. The changes in Icelandic economy calls for a discussion of the role of the education system, not only to respond to the labour market but to have a proactive influence. Education could play an active role rather than the thoroughly passive one it is accustomed to.


The Compulsory School Act No. 91, 12 June 2008Article 2, Objective

The role of the compulsory school, in cooperation with the home, is to encourage pupils’ general development and prepare them for active participation in a democratic society that is continuously developing. Compulsory school practice and methods shall be characterised by tolerance and affection, Christian heritage of Icelandic culture, equality, democratic cooperation, responsibility, concern, forgiveness and respect for human values. The compulsory school shall endeavour to organise its activities to correspond fully with the position and needs of their pupils and encourage the overall development, well-being and education of each individual. The compulsory school shall encourage broadmindedness in its pupils, strengthen their skills in the Icelandic language and their understanding of Icelandic society, its history and characteristics, of people’s living conditions and the individual’s duties to the community, the environment and to the world. Pupils shall be provided with the opportunity to develop and use their creativity and to acquire knowledge and skills in their strive towards education and development. School activities shall lay the foundations for pupils’ autonomy, initiative and independent thinking and train their cooperation skills. The compulsory school shall encourage good cooperation between the school and the home, with the objective of ensuring successful school operation, general welfare and safety for pupils.


The Compulsory School Act No. 91, 12 June 2008Article 24, National Curriculum Guide

• The Minister of Education, Science and Culture issues a National Curriculum Guide for Compulsory Schools, which shall be revised on regular basis. It shall stipulate e.g. the compulsory school’s pedagogical role and general policy in teaching and instructional organisation according to the role of the compulsory school cf. Article 2. The National Curriculum Guide shall among other things emphasise the following:

• 1. Self consciousness, personal awareness, ethical consciousness, social awareness and pupils’ awareness of their civil responsibilities and duties

• 2. Physical and mental well-being, healthy lifestyle and responsible approach towards living beings and the environment,

• 3. Training pupils in using the Icelandic language in all studies, • 4. Dramatic and artistic expression • 5. The ability of pupils to understand causal relationships and to draw logical conclusions • 6. Understanding of vital and creative activities, innovation and entrepreneurial studies • 7. Balance between academic and practical studies • 8. Utilising children’s’ play as means of learning and development


The Compulsory School Act No. 91, 12 June 2008Article 24, National Curriculum Guide (cont.)

• 9. Studies which will be of advantage to pupils in their daily life as well as in further studies and future employment

• 10. Preparing both sexes equally for active participation in society, family life and employment • 11. A variety of means to acquire knowledge, through the use of technological media,

information and communication technology, school resource centres and written sources • 12. Education and career guidance and counselling, information about occupations and

employment, available courses of study in preparing for future studies or employment In devising the National Curriculum Guide, in the organisation of study and instruction and in producing and selecting study material, special effort shall be made to ensure that all pupils have equal study opportunities and a chance to select subjects and learning approaches in their own education.

• The objectives and practice of study and instruction shall aim at preventing discrimination on the basis of origin, gender, sexual orientation, residence, social class, religion, health condition, handicap or situation in general.

• All school activities shall encourage a healthy lifestyle and take into account the variation of personality, development, talent, abilities and interests of each individual pupil.


The Compulsory School Act No. 91, 12 June 2008Article 25, Objectives of study

The National Curriculum Guide shall lay down the main objectives of study and instruction, the structure and organisation of study, as well as division of time between instruction in different subjects and subject areas in the compulsory school. Effort shall be made to ensure as much cohesion of studies as possible, but each compulsory school determines if particular subjects shall be taught in a separate or integrated way. The National Curriculum Guide shall define required learning outcomes within each subject area. Pupils shall have the possibility to fulfil the learning outcomes of particular subjects and subject areas in various ways. The National Curriculum Guide shall define learning outcomes and requirements for pupils to finish individual subjects or subject areas. It shall also define requirements for pupils that finish compulsory school in less than 10 years. The National Curriculum Guide shall outline the cooperation between compulsory school and preschool on the one hand and compulsory school and upper secondary school on the other hand and how to arrange efficient transfer and adaptation between school levels. The National Curriculum Guide shall stipulate the content and organisation of study in the following fields: Icelandic or Icelandic as second language or Icelandic sign language, mathematics, English, Danish or other Nordic languages, arts and crafts, natural sciences, physical education, social sciences, equal rights affairs, religious studies, life skills and information and communication technology.



An attempt at a visual presentation of the issues in the Icelandic law on compulsory education

The objective of education

The national curriculum guide

The objective of study

Why should we? Global rationale

IV. Global changes in both the local and global labour markets, both cultural and technical within the jobs themselves, but also mobility issues.

Jobs change fast, people move fast within a particular labour market; the situation in many sectors is already very different from what was the case only 10 years ago.

V. The overuse of the worlds resources and the general claim for a self sustainable local and global economy and culture.

Self sustainability, use of resources and energy production see e.g. UNESCO’s Teaching and Learning for a Sustainable Future.

IV. The fast development of scientific and technological knowledge calls for a thorough revision of curriculum in a number of fields but probably even for totally new subjects for study.

The doubling time in some fields is down to two years, but even if it is 5-10 years this is very fast. This should be taken into account.


http://www.unesco.org/education/tlsf/


VII. Technological development allows for dramatic changes in a whole spectrum of tasks.

In the computer field the doubling time is around 2-3 years. All kinds of tools for designing, writing, calculating etc. etc. will be used. Many tasks of today are already obsolete. Assume our kids will use these tools.

VIII. The communication technology similarly calls for important changes. Whether it is the environment afforded by Web 2.0 or Web 3.0 (semantic web) , 4.0 (symbiotic web) we may anticipate important changes. The recent development of GSM, tablets etc. underlines that much of the technology the children use today will soon become obsolete; but some of ours schools still operate as if not even these instruments are there as normal tools of their lives.


Skills that probably should play a central role in our curriculum; not a marginal role as some people think.

• New skills, 21st century skills• http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/education_culture/publ/pdf/ll-learning/keycomp_en.pdf • http://www.p21.org/ • http://www3.hi.is/~jtj/greinar/JTJ%20DISCUSSION%20PAPER%20May%2031-2010.pdf


The Partnership for 21st Century Skills; from the USA

Somtimes put as:

3 Rs

4 Cs

Core Subjects

Reading, writing, artimeticCritical thinking and problem solving, communication, collaboration, and creativity and innovation

21st century interdisciplinary themes into core subjects

Information, Media and Technology Skills

Learning and Innovation Skills

Life and Career Skills

3. Mathematical competence and basic competences in science and technology

4. Digital competence

5. Learning to learn

6. Social and civic competences

7. Sense of initiative and entrepreneurship

8. Cultural awareness and expression

European Framework for Key Competences for Lifelong Learning, suggests these key areas:

1. Communication in the mother tongue

2. Communication in foreign languages

http://www.p21.org/


IX. The demand for new skills for our new economy. This is a discussion that has got furthest but perhaps has made least

headway. Now there are easily 20, 25 years since this claim started to emerge (forgetting Dewey in the 1910s). The call was for new skills, but the matters has not had much success. In Iceland it is therefore interesting to follow the fate of the new key factors introduced by the ministry in its national curriculum guide.

X. Substantial research on education, teaching and schooling affords a lot of suggestions for change to our educational practices.

Thousands of research papers are published on every aspect of educational practice. But it is very unclear what impact it has on education; in fact the channels for the interaction between the two are not very wide. But a lost of suggestions for change exist. But research may sometimes only inspire research, let it not necessarily control wall we do.


But what about the school itself, as an institution?

Will it survive all the profound changes taking place? Must it change?

It is very problematic to discuss the whole school system in one parcel, but pretend it is possible, just for the sake of the idea.



Some reasons to have school at all

a) Economy of sizeb) Specialization of teachers who follow the changes in their fieldsc) Special facilities to teach, e.g. crafts, biology, sport, …d) The socialization of children and adolescents ;creating a culture for and with theme) Pedagogical care and educationf) Teaching and mentoring roleg) Institutional role; the school undertakes many of new tasks that society expects; it

follows what happens elsewhere and thus ensures that the system is up to date; it ensures that all the children are attended to and receive what is helpful for them

h) Takes on the role of a motivator, organizer and inspection to the extent that this is needed or helpful

h) Something more?



• -500 years -50 yearsFuture

Long ago Recently NowSoon +25-50

• a) Economy X X? ?

• b) Specialization X X X ??

• c) Facilities X X? ?

• d) Socialization X X X? ?

• e) Care X? ?

• f) Teaching X X X? ?

• g) Institutional role X ??

• h) Organizational role X X ??





• a) Economy X Xx

• b) Specialization X X X x

• c) Facilities X Xx

• d) Socialization X X Xx

• e) Care Xx

• f) Teaching X X Xx

• g) Institutional role X x

• h) Organizational role X X x





• a) Economy X Xx x

• b) Specialization X X X x



• e) Care Xx









• b) Specialization X X X xx



• e) Care Xx










• c) Facilities X Xx x


• e) Care Xx











• d) Socialization X X Xx x

• e) Care Xx












• e) Care Xx x












• e) Care Xx x

• f) Teaching X X Xx x











• e) Care Xx x


• g) Institutional role X xx










• e) Care Xx x


• g) Institutional role X xx

• h) Organizational role X X xx

The past

The present

The future

So where are we now? On balance?


We have the school, it will be there for a while; but we must ensure that is “in tune with the times and its role”

New world, new curricular wars

Jón Torfi Jónasson - Enirdelm 2011 Iceland 49

The subjects of the 19th and the 20th centuries

Complete renewal of the existing subjects

New subjects

New tools, new cultures

New skills and key competencies

The pedagogical, social and cultural role of the school must be emphasized all the way

Teacher education and professional development

Teacher education must be at the forefront of ongoing change

Teachers must take the lead in new ideas, new thinking, new attitudes, new cultures; it is their task to present new material, new ways of working

Teacher education must aim at providing a holistic professional with a good overview over her or his task; must be prepared for this in pre-service education and subsequently be continuously developing the professional task.


The pre-service education of teachers

Jón Torfi Jónasson - Enirdelm 2011 Iceland 51

School connected education

Educational studies

The pupil

Schools as institutions

Professionalism

The discipline

The discipline as

a school subject

The discipline didactics

General didactics

New skills

Ethical knowledge

General knowledge

Ensure a professional unity

Teacher education

Teacher education must be thought of as both pre-service and in-service education and professional development. The latter part is no less important than the first part, important as it is. In fact we see continuous professional development as a major challenge.

Several reports and research practices indicate that the development of educational systems now-a-days happens within the system itself, not waiting for pre-service education to have its ripple effect.

See e.g. the McKinsey report from 2010. Mona Mourshed, Chinezi Chijioke Michael Barber. (2010): How the world’s most improved school systems keep getting better. McKinsey&Company.

See also the discussion at the international conference í New York, mars 2011 and the OECD background report. Andreas Schleicher. (2011). Building a High-Quality Teaching Profession Lessons from around the world. OECD.


http://ssomckinsey.darbyfilms.com/reports/schools/How-the-Worlds-Most-Improved-School-Systems-Keep-Getting-Better_Download-version_Final.pdf

http://www2.ed.gov/about/inits/ed/internationaled/teaching-summit.html

http://www2.ed.gov/about/inits/ed/internationaled/background.pdf

Conclusion summary

We can predict a lot about our near (20-30 year) future, more than many people seem to appreciate. But who takes the responsibility to ensure the constant necessary development or rather re-creation?

Probably our education systems will develop very slowly, for the reasons of inertia I have discussed; but then they will gradually become more and more obsolete.

One of the most peculiar problems in the age of life long learning is that we don't know how to interweave pre-service education and professional development.

The school is an educational and a cultural institution; it is the major tool society has for its social and economic development. The school must gradually become more preoccupied with these aspects of its aims. It must also understand the passage of time. Thus it must constantly discuss the role it is given and actively participate in constant renewal; nobody else will or can do it. But how is this best done? At the same time it should not be asked to solve all societies problems.

Education in the future is uncertain to the extent that we don't know how dynamic our educational institutions will be.


Thank you

Kærar þakkir



The predicted growth of the world tertiary student population relative to total population: number of students

per million inhabitants

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World population 20096.790 million

Growth of 4% 5%HE students 2000 100 100 million

2010 150 163 million2020 220 265 million2030 324 432 million2040 480 704 million2050 710 1146 million

nls - nordiska lärarorganisationers samråd möte i reykjavík 28.-29. september 2011

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