nisqually chinook natural production

Nisqually Chinook Annual Review

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Nisqually Chinook Natural Production

Sayre HodgsonNisqually Wildlife RefugeFebruary 8, 2011


Outline•M&E is needed to test our assumptions within the

plan and to identify changes to our action plan if needed.

•We’re farther along on our habitat actions than the other H’s so our evaluation so far is focused on the habitat monitoring and establishing baseline.

•Focus on natural production of existing population, importance of the estuary, monitoring baseline, and gaps we need to fill in.

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Nisqually Natural Origin Run Size Modeled Frequencies

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0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

Freq

uenc

y

Natural-origin run to NIsqually

Baseline 2001

Status 2009

Current 2010

NCSMP

Fully fit pop

Projected NCSMP fitness response


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Escapement/ Spawner Distribution, Abundance, and Composition


Adult Abundance: Recent Chinook Escapement Estimates

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Composition: Otolith Analysis of 120 adult Chinook (BY ’03) that Appeared to be of Natural Origin

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Data provided by Angie Lind-Null, USGS


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Distribution: EDT Model Estimates of Spawner Distribution

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Historical Condition Current Condition


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Juvenile Monitoring


WDFW Outmigrant Trap Installed 2009 above Centralia City Light Powerhouse (RM 12.7)

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Juvenile Timing at WDFW trap in 2009 Data provided by Matthew Klungle, WDFW

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Abundance Estimates from trapData provided by Matthew Klungle, WDFW

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Age 2009 2010

0+ 418,086 130,846

1+ 14,371 14,925

TOTAL 432,457 145,771


Juvenile Productivity

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Natural Origin Fish were an Estimated 3-10% of the Outmigration in 2009-10

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3% Natural Composition Estimate for 2010 Compared to Beach Seine Data

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Beach Seine Composition Data for all Years Combined (2002-2010)

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Estuary and Nearshore Relative Abundance, Distribution and Timing:

2002-2010 Beach Seine Sampling by NIT/NNWR/SPSSEG


Unmarked Juvenile Chinook Distribution/ Timing Beach Seine 2002-10

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Unmarked Chinook

Hatchery Chinook


Unmarked Chinook Length Distribution

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Survival of Different Outmigrant Types: Data from returning adults

•WDFW Scale Analysis: Few yearling outmigrants survive to return. Most surviving returns were 0+ outmigrants.

•USGS Otolith Analysis: All brood year 2003 unmarked (n=110) and marked (n=104) adult returns were delta residents. There was no indication of surviving fry, parr migrant, or yearling life history types.

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Chinook Timing at WDFW trap in 2009 Data provided by Matthew Klungle, WDFW

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Juvenile Chinook Population Baseline Estuary Growth, Residency, and Life History Diversity

(work conducted by Kim Larsen and Angie Lind-Null, USGS)

Naturally Spawned Chinook Average Growth: 0.57 mm/dayAverage Estuary Residency:16 days, range 10 – 35 daysDelta Check (DC) observedin late May-early June

Hatchery ChinookAverage Growth: 0.59 mm/dayAverage Estuary Residency:9 days, range 4 – 20 daysDC observed mid to late May

Angie Lind-Null & Kim Larsen, USGS

DC


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Puget Sound Nearshore


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Beach Seining Results 2002-2008


Nisqually Origin CWT Juvenile Recoveries


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Adult Return Timing


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•Adult Return Timing: Tribal Catch


Spawning Timing

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•Mainstem, Mashel, and Ohop surveyed regularly•Spawning is roughly from September to November•Spawning peaks around early October in the

mainstem and later October in the Mashel River


Monitoring & Evaluation: Critical to testing our assumptions and tracking the effects of our actions into the future

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Adaptive Management Cycle

Recovery Plan Development

•Population Goal and Problem Statement

•Scientific Framework

•Goals and Objectives

Prioritized Actions

•Habitat Action Plan

•Harvest Action Plan

•Hatchery Action Plan

•M&E Action Plan

Monitor Action Plans and Stock Status

Evaluate Monitoring Data and Stock Status

Plan Update:

•Problem Statement

•Goals and Objectives

•Scientific Framework

•Action Plans


Partial List of Current Monitoring and New Monitoring Needs: • Existing Measures: ▫ Spawners: #, Timing,

Distribution, Composition (PHOS)

▫ Juveniles: Trap #, timing, size Estuary relative abundance,

timing, distribution, size, habitat use, growth and residence time

Catch: #, composition

• New Measures:▫ Escapement:

Weir will give better numbers

Weir efficiency and better distribution information

Track spawning below the weir

Gaps to be filled by other measure s to be developed through adaptive management process

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Monitoring and Evaluation•Evaluating M&E needs on an annual basis including

ways to improve accuracy on existing data collection.•Analyzing the data on an annual basis to evaluate

key assumptions in the plan and our progress towards goals.

•These activities will be linked to viable salmonid population (VSP) criteria being developed for Puget Sound populations.

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Questions?

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nisqually chinook natural production

Documents

chinook timing

monitoring data

adult chinook

juvenile timing

trap data

juvenile monitoring

natural origin data

beach seine data