nishioka s 20150709_1500_upmc_jussieu_-_room_101_(building_14-24)
TRANSCRIPT
2015
Shuzo Nishioka Secretary General, LoCARNet
Senior Research advisor
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)
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Mobilising Wisdom through Capacity Building for Low Carbon Asia:
-Change Agent for Stablising Climate-
Without more mitigation, global mean surface temperature might increase by 3.7° to 4.8°C over the 21st century
To avoid 2 degree rise, path of passing 50% reduction from now in 2050 is feasible and reasonable .
IIPCC AR5 2013
Global target: Halving of current emission by 2050
3.7-4.8 ℃
2.0℃
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Japan world
Emission in 2050
Halving
Present emission
total
Equal allocation per Capita ~2t/Cap.
20Gt 0.2 Gt
40Gt (2000)
1.26Gt (1990)
Pop. 9.6G 0.097G
>85% reduction
※世界の人口は国連「World Population Prospects, the 2012 Revision」より、日本の人口は社人研「日本の将来推計人口(平成24年1月推計)」より
2010 Per capita CO2
USA 17.4
China 5.55
India 1.35
Indonesia 1.63
Thailand 3.25
France 5.34
Germany 8.92
UK 7.92
Japan 9.05
2050 halving from now: 2ton/Capita World Japan: more than 80% reduction(base year 1990) Asia: already more than 2ton/ Capita CBDR revisited, competition towards 2 ton world: Asia can leapfrog?
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
per
cap
ita
Time
Developed Countries Locked in Society
High Energy Locked-in Type Development
With High Damage on Economy and Natural System
Free hand Society
Developing Countries
Leapfrog Development
Modeling Sustainable Low-Carbon Asia
Asian Low-Carbon Society Scenario Development Study” FY2009-2013, funded by Global Environmental Research Program, MOEJ http://2050.nies.go.jp/index.html
LCS scenario in Asia
2 ton world
Japan
ASEAN
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Seven Asian priority topics discussed: “GHG inventories as bases”; “policy-making processes and use of integrated assessment models”; “land use and forestry”; “low-carbon cities”; “local level practices/ decisions / initiatives”; “institutionalization of low-carbon green growth”; and “technology for leapfrogging”.
Synthesis Reports: http://lcs-rnet.org/publications/index.html
LoCARNet: Low Carbon Asia Research Network Proposed to ASEAN +3 EMM Mtg. in 2011 by Japan
An open network of researchers & research organizations, as well as like-minded relevant stakeholders that facilitates the formulation and implementation of
science-based policies for low-carbon development in Asia.
Indonesia Cambodia
Thailand
Malaysia
Vietnam
Workshops and consultations in Asian countries
Cambodia Workshop: A Systematic and Quantitative Design of Low Carbon Development Plan for
Cambodia (April 2013)
Int’l workshops in Iskandar, Malaysia (2012-2013)
• Low Emission Development Scenarios (LEDs) of Energy Sector: Preliminary Result of Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling (AIM) exercise (June 2012)
• Indonesia Workshop: Research Cooperation on “Development of Low-Carbon Strategies” (Feb. 2013)
Vietnam Workshop: Low Carbon Society in Vietnam (April 2013)
• LoCARNet 1st Annual Mtg. (Oct. 2012)
• Development of Asia Low-Carbon Strategy and Roadmap 1st Kick off Meeting (Oct. 2012)
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Asian Modeling Meeting at Tsukuba on 17-18
September 2009
14th AIM International Workshop on 14-15 February
2009
AIM Training Workshop on 2-14
August 2010
Asian Low Carbon Development Scenario Making and Capacity Building Activity
Since 1991
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17th AIM International Workshop,17-19, February
2012
16th AIM International Workshop on 19-21 February
2011
15th AIM International Workshop on 20-22
February 2010
AIM Training Workshop on 27-31 October
2008
AIM Training Workshop on 22-26 October 2007 AIM Training Workshop on 16-20 October 2006
1st AIM International Workshop on
1-2 February,1996
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LoCARNet Team Assists
National and Local Low Carbon Development Plan
2010/10 2009/11
on going on going 2011/10
2009/10
2011/03
2008/12
2010/10
2011/09
2007/05 2009/10
2009/11
2009/10
2011/05
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CoE
CoE
CoE
CoE Funding
Organization:ADB/JICA/
government
Journal
Future of Low Carbon Asia Research Network
Alliance of Centers of Excellence for Low Carbon Development Strategy in Asia
Forestry・agricultual・land-use
Low carbon, resilient cities
Universities/ Research Organizations
Knowledge sharing/Education/Training
Energy /technology
Low carbon development policy Inventory/ MRV
Low carbon development strategy
of Asian Countries
International Org. UNEP,,,,
Joint Study Policy Dialogue
Research community
Economic evaluation
WSs
Web
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NGO CDKN, WRI, CAN,,,
Local Gov’t/Alliances City, ICLEI, C40…
Business/Industry WBCSD, Japan-CLP…
National Gov’t/ Regional alliances ASEAN, OECD, TEMMS, IEA
International Entities UN, UNEP, UNESCO, WMO, UNFCCC…
Academia ICSU, IAC, Universities, Research Institutions…
Public Society Local residents, citizens, consumers
Stakeholders called for Action
Int’l Finance/Aid Organisations WB, ADB, AFDB,AIID, JICA, USAid
Scientific observation, climate prediction, process analysis, data accumulation, publishing data & articles
Policy formation
“Decade for Accelerating Transformative Action to Low Carbon Society:DATALoCS”
Policy implication
Climate risk recognition
PDCA
1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2030 2050
IPCC AR5 IPCC
Strengthening Climate related agenda and activities in UN & UN family
Accelerating formation of new regime and its implementation in UNFCCC
Establishing and implementing a long-term low-carbon policy
Regional cooperation for common climate policy
Creation of/ transition to LC/ resilient cities
Urgent action to climate vulnerable spot and continuous strategic adaptation operation
Promotion of Bi/Multi-lateral cooperation
Financial & technological cooperation for leapfrogging
Design of finance and investment for transition
Reform in energy system/ industrial structure & techno-socio innovation aiming for a LC society
Transformation to LC lifestyle in daily life & preparation for adaptation in community
Taking role to consolidate multi-level stakeholder action into transforming to LC & resilient society
DATALoCS
Facilitation
Financial function
Knowledge sharing
Knowledge creation/
assessment
Agent of change
Social learning
Function to be strengthened
I PCC AR6
Examples of Action
Enhancing solution oriented inter-disciplinary research
Effective joint action among Int’l entities
Dialogue for N-S, S-S Cooperation
Matching of finance & infrastructure/ technology
Research-Policy dialogue for science based integrated national climate policy
Compromising conflicts associated with industry/energy shift to LC society
School education for climate knowledge and action
Public participation to design/ transformation to LC/R cities
Social learning for CC resilient community
Enhance NGO cooperation to
drive transition Urg
en
t t
ran
siti
on
to
a lo
w-c
arb
on
an
d r
esi
lien
t w
orl
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Social learning and dialogue for transformative
solution
Thank you very much for your attention! LCS-RNet/LoCARNet Secretariat http://lcs-rnet.org/index.html c/o Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)
2108-11 Kamiyamaguchi, Hayama, Kanagawa 240-0115, Japan
E-mail: [email protected] Fax: +81 (0)46 855 3809
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Opportunities for Asia: Leveraged by climate change
Long-term trends in energy intensity (energy/GDP)
Japan’s leap-frog in Oil Crisis
China/ASEAN? *India?
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Learning curve by human being