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Volume 27, Issue 18 December 22-28, 2012

page 2 • www.PLAYBOOK.com • 1.800.PLAYBOOK

ATS = Against The Spread • A = Away • Con = Conference • D = Dog F = Favorite • H = Home • Rev = Revenge • R = Road • SU = Straight-Up

FOR A COMPLETE 2-MINUTE HANDICAP OF EVERY GAME ON TODAY'S CARD, VISIT www.PLAYBOOK.com

The Dallas Cowboys are 2-17-1 ATS as non-division favorites from Game Thirteen out,

including 0-10 ATS off a SU win.Be sure to read the INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK each week in the PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter!

INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK

ATS W-L Record Since 1980:

10-1(91%)

SATURDAYNIGHT’S ALRIGHT

PLAY ON any NFL dog on Saturday who lost SU as a favorite in its

last game and is facing a foe off a spread win of more than 8 points

in its last game.

AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK

Play On: DETROIT LIONS (12/22)

Saturday, December 22Atlanta 0-7 Saturday off SU win… 0-3 SUATS L3 Saturday gms DETROIT 8-1 dogs w/ rev vs opp off DD SU win Games 13-16

Sunday, December 23Tennessee 1-6 aft Monday Game… 1-4 Game FifteenGREEN BAY 9-2 bef Vikings… 6-2 H w/ rev vs non div

Oakland 1-6 aft Chiefs… 2-10 non div RD’s 5 > pts w/ rev CAROLINA 6-1-1 favs 8 > pts…1-7 off SU dog win vs non conf

Buffalo 11-2 off BB SU losses vs opp w/ revMIAMI 1-5 aft allowing 7 < pts… 4-0 O/U Game Fifteen

Cincinnati 6-0 off DD SUATS win vs opp off SUATS loss PITTSBURGH SERIES: 5-0 L5 / 4-1 L5 H… 4-1 SU Game Fifteen

New England 8-0 aft allowing 28 > pts… 2-12 favs > 11 ptsJACKSONVILLE 17-4 bef Titans (1-0 this year)… 0-4 SU Game Fifteen

Indianapolis 0-5 off DD SU loss vs opp off DD SU lossKANSAS CITY 8-1 H off BB RG’s vs non div opp (0-1 this year)

New Orleans SERIES: 6-2 L8… 4-0-1 vs non div opp off 3+ SU wins DALLAS GARRETT: 1-9 off SU win vs < .500 opp (0-3 this year)

Washington 0-6 off BB SU wins vs div opp off DD SU loss PHILADELPHIA 8-2-1 off DD ATS loss vs div (but 0-2-1 this year)

St. Louis 5-0 aft allowing 35 > pts vs < .500 non div opp TAMPA BAY 0-4 aft allowing 35 > pts Games 13-16

Ny Giants COUGHLIN: 6-0 A off DD SU loss vs opp off DD SU loss BALTIMORE 1-10 non conf dogs 7 < pts vs < .800 opp (0-1 this year)

Minnesota 0-6 off DD SU win vs non conf opp HOUSTON 8-0 vs non-conf opp off BB SU wins (1-0 this year)

Cleveland 0-6 non-div RD’s 7 > pts off SUATS loss vs > .666 oppDENVER SERIES: 4-1 L5… FOX: 8-1 off DD SU W vs opp off SU fav L Chicago 5-0 favs > 3 pts 1st BB RG’s… 8-1 bef LionsARIZONA SERIES: 3-1-1 L5… 5-2-1 dogs vs NFC North

San Francisco 5-0 dogs off SU non conf dog win… 8-1 div RD’s 9 < ptsSEATTLE CARROLL: 1-7 fav off BB SUATS wins (1-2 this year)

San Diego 1-8 aft allowing 28 > pts vs non div opp Games 13-16NY JETS SERIES: 6-1 L7… 6-0 aft Monday game vs non div

College Bowl Games

TEAMS KEY FACTS, STATS & ATS TRENDS

(All results are preseason ATS – Against The Spread – and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of PLAYBOOK™ and the PLAYBOOK™ Database and may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.

TEAMS KEY FACTS, STATS & ATS TRENDS

NFL Games

Saturday, December 22 NEW ORLEANS BOWLEast Carolina Dogs are 5-1 ATS L6 CUSA-Sun Belt bowl gamesLa-Lafayette Sun Belt bowlers are 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS vs > .666 opp LAS VEGAS BOWLWashington Bowl teams are 3-9 ATS off SUATS overtime lossBoise St 7-2 ATS vs Pac-10/12 opp… 3rd straight Las Vegas Bowl

Monday, December 24 HAWAII BOWLSmu CUSA bowl teams are 8-2 ATS L10 vs > .667 oppFresno St Favorite 1-10 ATS L11 Bulldogs’ bowl games (9 SU losses)

Wednesday, December 26 LITTLE CAESARS PIZZA BOWLC Michigan 17 returning starter bowl dogs 4 > points are 16-9-1 ATSW Kentucky Sun Belt bowl favs off a win are 1-5 ATS vs opp off a win

Thursday, December 27 MILITARY BOWLBowling Green MAC bowlers off a win are 9-2 ATS vs .600 > opp off a winSan Jose St Pre-New Year’s Day 3-0 SUATS favs are 10-25 ATS S/ 1980 BELK BOWLCincinnati Big East teams are 2-8 ATS as favorites vs ACC oppDuke ACC bowl teams off BB SUATS losses are 9-2 ATS S/ 1990 HOLIDAY BOWLBaylor Big 12 bowlers off a win are 6-10 ATS vs Pac-10/12 oppUcla 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS vs fellow bowl teams this year

Friday, December 28 INDEPENDENCE BOWLOhio U Bowlers that went 0-3 SUATS in L3 games are 15-8 ATSLa-Monroe Bowl teams off BB wins, last in overtime, are 3-7 SUATS RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWLRutgers 5-1 SUATS as bowlers… 3-0 SUATS as dogs w/ FloodVa Tech Beamer: 0-3 ATS in bowl games vs opp off a loss MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL OF TEXASMinnesota Kill: 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS vs opp off BB lossesTexas Tech Bowl teams 1-5 ATS off BB Losses if last was in OT

2-MINUTE HANDICAP

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Remember: You Have A PLAYBOOK BEST BET Whenever Our Predicted Margin Of Victory Is 7 Or More Points In Favor Of Your Line

THIS WEEK IN FOOTBALL – DECEMBER 22-28

COLLEGE BOWLS

Saturday, December 22

NEW ORLEANS BOWLMercedes-Benz Superdome • New Orleans, LA

La-Lafayette over East Carolina by 3 The fi fth of 35 bowl games takes us out to the Big Easy where it will be anything but ‘EC’ for the Ragin’ Cajuns to duplicate last year’s 32-30 New Orleans bowl win over San Diego State. Though the Cajuns are hitting the alleys for the second consecutive season after a 41-year bowl hiatus, bowl favorites of 8 or less points that return to the same bowl they won the previous year are just 10-21-1 ATS. Worse, Sun Belt bowlers are 1-5 ATS as chalk off a SU win versus a foe off a SU win while dogs are 5-1 ATS in the last six Conference USA/Sun Belt bowl affairs. And speaking of dogs, pre-New Year’s day pups with a better win percentage are 34-16-1 ATS when both teams arrive off a victory. Yes, we know SBC squads have been moneymakers in non-conference clashes this season (24-10 ATS) but in 26 of those contests they were taking points. They’re a mediocre 4-4 ATS as non-conference chalk this year – and keep this in the memory bank (you’ll also need it for the GoDaddy.com Bowl): Sun Belters are 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in bowl games versus greater-than .666 opposition. And while we’re hesitant to call for the outright win with bowl teams off an overtime win (ECU) just 1-7 SU against a foe off back-to-back SU wins, we will grab the points with the Pirates as Conference USA bowl dogs of 3 or more points improve to 11-5 ATS since 2007. See, that wasn’t so hard!

T R I V I A T E A S E R

This coach shines in games off a double-digit loss, going 32-18-1 ATS in his NFL career. Better yet, put him up against an opponent also off a DD loss and he beams, going 10-0-1 ATS.

Who is this week’s shining light?

For the Trivia Teaser answer, turn to page 7.

THIS WEEK'S AMAZING SITUATIONAL PLAY

T R I V I A T E A S E R

Monday, December 24

HAWAII BOWLAloha Stadium • Honolulu, HI

Fresno St over Smu by 6 For the families that are allowed to open a gift on Christmas Eve, here is our present to you: the dog is 7-0 SU and ATS in SMU bowl games since 1980, while the favorite is 1-10 ATS in the last 11 Fresno State bowl games, including nine SU losses. In fact, one of those underdog wins was of the double-digit variety when the Mustangs spanked Nevada, 45-10, on this fi eld the night before Christmas just three short years ago. Nope, the Wolf Pack weren’t stirring on that evening and we have a feeling that the Bulldogs may arrive with more bark than bite, as well, making that +340 on the money line awfully tempting (even without the eggnog!). Yes, our 2012 College Bowl Stat Report tells us that the Bulldogs hold a huge stat edge in games versus fellow bowlers (Fresno State +88 net YPG, SMU -144 net YPG) as they feature one of the nation’s leading rushers in RB Robbie Rouse (1,408 rushing yards). However, our PLAYBOOK.com database reminds us that bowl favorites off a win of 15 or more points who won fi ve or less games last season are 5-13 ATS when facing a foe that won six or more games the previous campaign. We also know that fi rst-year coaches are an unprepared 1-6 ATS as bowl favorites of 7 or more points, including a head-turning 0-3 SU and ATS as double-digit chalk. But the Bulldogs arrive on a 5-0 SU and ATS run, in which they have outscored their opponents by an average score of 47-21, you say? No worries. Rest turns to rust for pre-New Year’s day favorites who enter on at least a 3-0 SU and ATS skein as they are 10-25 ATS in this role since 1980. We should also mention that Conference USA bowl teams are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games versus .667 or greater opposition. And with that we say, who needs reindeer when you can have ponies! And to all, a good night.

NOTE: Home team is shown in ALL CAPS. PLAYBOOK selection appears in Bold. Should we pass or not have a strong opinion on a game, neither team will be bolded.

LAS VEGAS BOWLSam Boyd Stadium • Las Vegas, NV

Boise St over Washington by 2 The Broncos are looking for a third straight Las Vegas Bowl victory but we don’t feel the third time will be a charm as they fall into the same 10-21-1 ATS category that fi gures to bedevil the Cajuns. Sure, they are part of the 10-win minority after stomping Arizona State, 56-24, as 14-point favorites on this fi eld last year. However, Washington head coach Steve Sarkisian does his best work when given time to prepare (6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS with rest) and his Huskies were riding an impressive 4-0 SU and ATS surge – including three as dogs – before losing to rival Washington State as 14-point road favorites in overtime. You can bet (and we will) that the sled dogs won’t take a Boise State team that is 60-5 SU since 2008 – including 18-6 ATS versus non-conference opposition – for granted. Of course, we’re not thrilled that bowl teams off a SU and ATS extra session loss are 3-9 ATS or that the Pac-12 is 0-3 SU and ATS in bowl games versus the Mountain West over the past three seasons. But we are, surprisingly, willing to roll the dice today in Sin City with a Huskies’ squad that ironically threw three sevens (as in allowing 777 total yards to Baylor) in last year’s Alamo Bowl. We say they remember the Alamo and make amends against a Broncos’ bunch that is averaging a paltry 17.2 PPG against fellow bowlers this season. Uh, oh. Better go to Maaco and back the underdog!

Wednesday, December 26

LITTLE CAESARS PIZZA BOWLFord Field • Detroit, MI

W Kentucky over C Michigan by 3 At fi rst glance, we did a double (or in this case a pizza, pizza) when we realized that all four Sun Belt bowl teams have been installed as favorites this season. Of course – maybe outside of Kent State – their foes would have trouble qualifying for the Lingerie League playoffs and wouldn’t be

(continued on next page)

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GAME OF THE WEEKUPSETUPSET UPSETUPSET

Thursday, December 27

MILITARY BOWLRFK Stadium • Washington, DC

Bowling Green over San Jose St by 1 Like the Chippewas, the Bee Gees are another 17 returning starter bowl dog taking 4 or more points. However, what makes these defensive-minded dogs dangerous is the fact that they held seven of their last eight opponents to season-low – or 2nd low – yardage in 2012. And though the surging Spartans (4-0 SU and ATS last four) are led by QB David Fales – No. 3 in the country in passing effi ciency (170.91) – our PLAYBOOK.com database sides with the strong stop-unit in this case as it notes: bowl teams off three or more ATS wins are 10-33-1 ATS against teams who allow 22 or less points on the season if the foe scored 21 or less points in its last game. And like the scenario in the Little Caesar’s Bowl, the Falcons are another MAC squad having the luxury of facing a team guided by a defensive coordinator as Kent Baer takes over for the departed Mike MacIntyre, who is hoping to stir a buzz in Colorado. That may be too much of a burden to ‘Baer’ for the Spartans as .666 or greater MAC bowlers off a SU win are 13-4 SU and 12-4-1 ATS. And while they have come a long way in two years (won one game in 2010), how many of their fans will actually know the way from San Jose to Washington, D.C.? Not many – so we’ll put a ’hundred down’ as the Bee Gees get the support, as well as the win, in this Upset Special.

Friday, December 28

INDEPENDENCE BOWLIndependence Stadium • Shreveport, LA

La-Monroe over Ohio U by 3For many college football fans in Louisiana, this game might as well be renamed the ‘Judas Bowl.’ That’s because Independence Bowl offi cials decided NOT to wait on 9-3 Louisiana Tech while the Bulldogs mulled over accepting an invitation, instead offering the berth to Ohio University. So, when the Bobcats eagerly accepted, La Tech was frozen out of the 2012 postseason – an almost unthinkable act that fully illustrates the hypocrisy of the current bowl system. Too bad, because an in-state showdown between the Warhawks and Bulldogs would have been far more appealing than this snoozer. In truth, injuries wrecked Frank Solich’s Ohio squad, spoiling a 7-0 start with a closing 1-4 SUATS skid. At least 14 players, including 11 starters, have been scratched due to season-ending injuries and the Bobcats are now ‘leaking oil,’ losing the yardage battle in their fi nal three contests. Still, the long wait between games has proved to be a positive for teams heading in the wrong direction: bowlers that are 0-3 SUATS in their last three games have gone a profi table 15-8 ATS of late. And the Bobbies seldom beat themselves, tying Pittsburgh for the fewest turnovers committed this season at eight. Meanwhile, the ‘home team’ Warhawks have been outgained in three of their fi nal four regular season games and bowl virgins like Monroe (no bowls in L3Y) who won four or less games the previous year check in at a listless 11-19 ATS as chalk. Sun Belt favorites are also 2-5 ATS in bowl games off a win and all bowl teams off back-to-back wins, the last in overtime, are only 3-7 SUATS. Yes, the Warhawks are bubbling over with school pride right now but we love ‘double deuce’ (offense averaging 200+ yards rushing and passing) bowl dogs like Ohio getting a touchdown. Time to whip out the clothespin and take the points.

HOLIDAY BOWLQualcomm Stadium • San Diego, CA

Ucla over Baylor by 7Forget about strength versus strength: here’s a bowl matchup that pits weakness against weakness. In this case, it’s a UCLA offensive line that allowed the most sacks of all bowlers this year – a whopping 46 – squaring off with a Baylor pass rush that couldn’t fi nd the opposing quarterback with a GPS (only 13 sacks registered all season). Though the Bears get a mulligan because they own the No. 1 offense in the bowls at 570 yards per game, they immediately knock it right back out-of-bounds with a bowl-worst defense that gets ripped for 523 YPG. It’s pretty much a stalemate, too, comparing recent ATS results in today’s roles. Baylor’s 6-1 ATS log off a win versus Pac-10/12 foes is immediately offset by the fact that Big 12 bowl teams off a win have gone just 6-10 ATS against Pac-10/12 opponents. And UCLA’s 5-1 ATS success as bowl pick or dog is negated by Jim Mora Jr’s inexperience as 1st-year coaches off a loss are 7-18 ATS when taking on a winning bowler. Yes, the Bruins fashioned a fi ne 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS mark versus fellow bowl teams this year but they were also outgained in three of the season’s fi nal four games. Leave it to our powerful database to supply the tiebreaker – UCLA stands 7-2 ATS against a Big 12 foe off a win, including 5-0 ATS as a favorite or dog of 3 or fewer points. That little gem, coupled with the putrid stench of Baylor’s defense, should put us on the winning side in today’s battle of the bears. Just don’t forget to sign your scorecard…

sniffi ng a bowl had Ohio State, Miami, Penn State and North Carolina not been handcuffed by the NCAA. Still, we won’t be riding ‘coach’ with this Sun Belt chalk (or any for that matter) despite the fact that sub .600 MAC bowlers are 1-7 SU and ATS. Nope, after HC Willie Taggert bolted for sunny South Florida, the Hilltoppers will be guided by defensive coordinator Lance Guidry and we’ll look for the veteran Chippewas (17 returning starters) to take advantage. As it is, 17-returning starter bowl dogs of 4 or more points are 16-9-1 ATS. Even better, six-win teams who won six or less games the previous year are 5-0 ATS as bowlers off back-to-back SU wins and Sun Belt favorites off a SU win are 1-5 ATS versus a foe off a SU win. While our College Bowl Stat Report reminds us that the Chips are an overmatched 0-5 SU, ATS and ‘ITS’ versus fellow bowlers this season, we’ll point out that the men from Mt. Pleasant won their fi nal three games to become bowl eligible and that tells us they want to be at this nearby Detroit ‘Pizza’ party. Grab the dogs as there are more than enough pies, err points, to go around.

BELK BOWLBank of America Stadium • Charlotte, NC

Cincinnati over Duke by 4Holy canine. The farther we go with this week’s bowl card, the more it resembles a Westminster Dog Show – both for the number of mongrel matchups involved and our proclivity for fading favorites. Keeping with that theme, we’ll take a good look at Duke today, a mangy mutt if there ever was one. The Blue Devils are playing in the postseason for the fi rst time since 1995 and a defeat here will mark their fi fth straight to close out the

2012 season – and saddle them with yet another losing season. Sounds like a lot to overcome, especially against a UC squad where bowling has become old hat (sixth bowl in the last seven years). But not all is peachy with the Bearcats: head coach Butch Jones followed in Brian Kelly’s shoes when he took the money and ran (Tennessee Vols), leaving DL coach Steve Stripling to oversee this game (Cincinnati has since hired Texas Tech’s Tommy Tuberville to take over in 2013). Though Jones’ departure is being downplayed, it will clearly be a distraction leading up to today’s bout. Worse is the fact that nearly all meaningful ATS history leans to the Blue Devils. Despite Cincy’s familiarity with postseason play, the unfortunate truth is the Bearcats are a paltry 2-7 ATS as bowlers since the turn of the century. In conference terms, Big East squads are a woeful 3-14 ATS vs .750 or less ACC opponents and just 2-8 ATS as favorites versus the ACC in bowl games. Meanwhile, ACC bowl teams off back-to-back SUATS losses are 9-2 ATS since 1990, including 6-0 ATS off a conference loss. Finally, Duke coach Cutcliffe owns a more-than-respectable 5-1 SUATS record as a bowler (3-0 SUATS as a dog). Put it all together and we can overlook the Durham Devils’ disturbing -108 net YPG effort in the 2nd half of the regular season. With somewhat of a ‘home fi eld’ edge in this contest (Duke campus 144 miles from Charlotte), we won’t be surprised to see these mongrels earn ATS Best in Show honors.

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PRO FOOTBALL

Saturday, December 22

RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWLCitrus Bowl Stadium • Orlando, FL

Rutgers over Virginia Tech by 3Though you might not think so, oddsmakers can be stubborn when it comes to adjusting lines on perennial contenders. Look no further than this matchup for proof. Apparently enamored by the fact that Virginia Tech is the only team in the nation to win 10 games every season for the previous eight years, the boys who make the line have failed to ac-knowledge that this year’s 6-6 edition of the Hokies is not very good… or at least not good enough to be favored over the Scarlet Knights. Frank Beamer’s squad barely achieved bowl eligibility and their six wins came over weak non-conference foes and ACC bottom-feeders. Against the class of the league – UNC, Clemson, Miami and Florida State – Va Tech stumbled its way to a 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS record, despite being the underdog in three of those four meetings. Still, when it comes to post-season scrums involving these two conferences, the ACC holds a decided edge. Big East teams are 6-15 ATS overall in such meetings and an even worse 3-14 ATS when the foe owns a .750 or less win percentage. And 1st-year head coaches like Kyle Flood are a troubling 3-11 ATS in bowl games off a SU favorite loss. However, despite the Hokies’ reputation as a tough defensive squad, Rutgers actually brings the better unit into this contest, both in point and yards allowed. Beamer Ball has beaten only one of fi ve winning foes on the fi eld in 2012 and VT has dropped three straight to the number in bowls versus an opponent off a loss. The bottome line: it’s a long way from the Sugar Bowl and Orange Bowl the last two years to the Russell Athletic Bowl and we don’t expect the Hokies to be as motivated on this lesser stage. Expect the Scarlet Knights to handcuff Tech QB Logan Thomas en route to improving their bowl record to 6-1 SUATS.

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL OF TEXASReliant Stadium • Houston, TX

Texas Tech over Minnesota by 10Red Raiders are another team in fl ux as head coach Tuberville bolted to Cincinnati along with OC Neal Brown (word is Tubs was at dinner with some Red Raider recruits when he excused himself to take a phone call, accepted the UC job – and never returned. Classy!). As befi tting today’s lackluster matchup, neither side owns an appreciable edge in the ATS archives. The Gophers are 0-4 SUATS versus winning opposition this season and they own a weak 3-7 SUATS log in their previous 10 bowl appearances. However, Minnesota has posted a 5-1-1 ATS mark of late as a double-digit non-conference dog and Big Ten bowl dogs are an out-standing 8-1 ATS versus foes off consecutive losses. Factor in head coach Jerry Kill’s 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS record against teams off back-to-back defeats (including 6-0 SUATS L6) and suddenly the doubles look invit-ing. That excitement dims somewhat when we see that Meineke Bowl chalk is 5-1 ATS in the last six games and bowl teams on 5-game ATS losing streak like Texas Tech have gone an eye-opening 10-2 ATS. The 2012 Playbook College Bowl Stat Report reveals a big stat advantage in games versus fellow bowlers for these two teams: TTRR compiled a +44 net YPG edge whereas Minny posted a -112 net YPG defi cit. The Raiders did regress, however, in the 2nd half season, slipping -141 net YPG. That backwards movement combined with Tech’s not-so-stable coaching staff forces us to give a lukewarm recommendation for the Golden Gophers. Take it or leave it.

3� BEST BET

The NFL switches gears from Thursday to Saturday and that’s simply AWESOME if you’re a fan of Motown. But if the Supremes aren’t ‘Happening’ for you – fear not – this day and game covers all genres of music. For the blues fan, we’ll let you know that the Falcons are 2-5 SU and 0-7 ATS on Saturday off a SU win while the hardcore handicapper will be happy to learn that teams off a shutout win from Game Thirteen out are 6-25 SU and 8-23 ATS on the road in non-division games since 1980. Yes, the Birds are a loud 11-0 ATS away versus a foe off back-to-back SU losses and 7-1 ATS off a shutout win but we just can’t sing their praises tonight after last week’s balls-to-the-wall playoff-revenge win over the Giants. Mike Smith’s men certainly made a statement with that effort but our PLAYBOOK.com database will make one with this little ditty: teams returning home off a previous 0-3 SUATS home stand are 6-5 SU and 7-4 ATS as a pick or dog since 1980. And for added measure, our MIDWEEK ALERT reminds us that the Lions’ stats this season (10-4 ‘ITS’, +59 net YPG) belie their 4-10 record. This isn’t gospel and Suh and Fairley may not be choirboys, but we say grab the home dogs as the Falcons will have to wait another week to clinch home fi eld advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Yes, the Lions win this one straight up on the scoreboard. Hallelujah!

DETROIT over Atlanta by 6

GREEN BAY over Tennessee by 15 The Pack is back on the attack with wins in eight of their last nine games (3-0 SUATS last three) and now has their sights set on a fi rst-round bye after clinching the NFC ‘Norris’ (heck, we have to throw the starving hockey fans a bone) with a win in Chicago last week. And our database reminds us it’s best not to step in front of a squad on a 3-0 SUATS run at home from Game 13 out during the regular-season as these teams are a long-time moneymaking 73-51-3 ATS. And that ties in nicely to HC Mike McCarthy’s 9-4 ATS log at Lambeau Field from lucky Game Thirteen out. And though we know that the Titans are in spoiler mode (just ask the Jets) and are 5-0 ITS their last fi ve contests, they are just 1-5 ATS versus an NFC North foe off back-to-back wins, 1-6-1 ATS off a Monday game versus non-division opposition and 3-6 ATS in the ‘Last Road Game’ of the season since 2003. Like we said, we’ll back the Pack – even as, gulp, double-digit chalk. We suggest you do the same.

Sunday, December 23

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4� BEST BET

Just when you thought you could put a fork in them, the Saints came marching back and remained mathematically alive (barely) in the NFC playoff picture with a stunning 41-0 whitewash of the high-scoring Buccaneers. And while teams in this role from Game Thirteen out are generally fade material (see Atlanta and Oakland), we think the Saints will arrive loosey-goosey as they ride a 3-0 ‘In The Stats’ streak. It also doesn’t hurt that the Cowboys are making a guest appearance in this week’s INCREDIBLE STAT in a negative way. Or that HC Jason Garret has numbers that can rival Chad Henne and Brady Quinn combined: 0-5 ATS as a favorite off back-to-back SU wins, 1-5 ATS with revenge from Game Thirteen out and 1-9 ATS off a SU win versus sub .500 opposition. Worse, our favorite anti-Tomlin favorite angle is in play today as teams are now 11-32-1 ATS as chalk after facing Mike Tomlin’s Steelers. Need we say more? Okay, how about a series history that shows the ’Boys 0-5 SU and ATS as a favorite since 1994. Wow! With that, we say the Saints improve to 5-0 SU and ATS versus a non-division opponent off three or more SU wins under Drew Brees. No need to bring back ‘Dallas’ with ‘As Jerry’s World Turns’ making its pilot premier three days before Christmas. A must take today in Big D.

New Orleans over DALLAS by 10

CAROLINA over Oakland by 13 Like the Falcons, the Raiders arrive off a shutout win so the aforementioned 8-23 ATS angle in this non-division duel clearly comes into play. However, the bigger concern is the fact that the Silver and Black will be making their fi fth trek this season into the eastern-time zone. The previous four have resulted in a 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS record and there’s no reason to believe that things will be fi ner in Carolina as they arrive with a 1-6 SUATS record after battling the rival Chiefs. As for the Panthers, the price defi nitely concerns us (as it does the public since it opened at -9 and is down to -8.5) considering they haven’t laid this many points since the 2009 season. However, they are 11-6-1 ATS as favorites of more than 7 points in their franchise history, including 9-3-1 ATS versus sub .333 opposition. They are also an equally impressive 9-3-1 ATS off back-to-back SU wins when the last comes as a dog and a crowd-pleasing 4-0 SUATS in regular-season home fi nales since 2008. With that being said, we’ll lay the wood as Cam gets it in gear for the third straight week.

MIAMI over Buffalo by 3 The fi rst of four division battles takes us to our backyard as the Dolphins look to reward those who bet ‘Over’ the 6.5-win season total (they better get it this week as next Sunday fi nds them in Foxboro). We say don’t sell as the Fish are 7-0 SU in this series when the Bills arrive off back-to-back SU losses – but it won’t be easy as Buffalo is 11-2 ATS off back-to-back setbacks versus a foe seeking revenge. Of course, Buffi e’s 0-6 SU and ATS record versus a division opponent with revenge is a concern, as is HC Chan Gailey’s 0-5 ATS regular season road log off a SU loss from Game Thirteen out. And who could blame us for fading the Bills off of their last two losses – a home defeat to the ‘Lambs’ and a blowout north of the border to the Seahawks. However, our MIDWEEK ALERT throws caution to the wind as it notes Buffalo has improved its net stats +43 YPG over the second half of the season while the Dolphins have regressed -9 YPG over that same span. And speaking of ‘downwind’, that odorous smell just may be Miami’s 1-11 ATS log as favorites of 6 or more points (keep an eye on the line). The Dolphins have a (Dan) Carpenter with a big leg and that looks to be the difference between these closely matched division rivals. Take it or leave it.

PITTSBURGH over Cincinnati by 8 We’re sure you’ve all heard the phrase ‘don’t bite the hand that feeds you.’ Well, what do you do with the team that burns you? Our diabolical side says screw the Steelers as they cost us our NFL 10* Game of the Year in a gut-wrenching giveaway loss to the Cowboys last week. However, our analytical side says they do arrive with the league’s top defense and have already dominated the Bengals (outyarded Cincy 431 to 185 in a 7-point road win) once this season. And to make matters worse, if the playoffs started today, Cincinnati would be in while Pittsburgh would be out! And yes, it’s the Steelers and not the Cats that are out of lives as a Bengals’ win would vault them into the postseason and send their longtime rivals home for the holidays. So to us, the question becomes: do we want to rely on Roethlisberger and Tomlin, or Dalton and Lewis (sounds like a comedy team), in this Week 16 ‘playoff’ game? Our NFL QB Club certainly ticks with Big Ben as it notes the veteran signal-caller is 21-5 SU and 18-7-1 ATS versus the division from Game Ten out, including 13-1 SU and 11-3 ATS as a favorite of 4 or more points, while Andy is

a not-so dandy 1-7-2 ATS against division foes, including 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS with revenge. Our NFL Coaches League also sides with the Steel Curtain as it reminds us ‘Iron’ Mike is 7-2 ATS off a SU favorite loss versus division opposition while Marvin is a starving 3-9 ATS in the regular season from Game Thirteen out after scoring 24 or more points. However, the clincher comes in the form of series history as it shows Pitt a merciless 11-1 SU and ATS in the last 12 games when the Bengals enter playing less than .700 ball. All of the above has us giving the Steelers one more chance. You know what to do.

New England over JACKSONVILLE by 11 Oh boy, Giselle is NOT happy. New England insiders reported that the supermodel was giving the defense and the special teams a tongue-lashing after Sunday night’s home loss to the 49ers. We have a feeling it went something like this: “Defense you stink. How can you give up 31 points to a pathetic 49ers offense through barely one-half of play and then give up another touchdown in two plays after my hubby rallied you back from a 28-point defi cit (we may be stretching it a bit with that last word)? And Gostkowski, where did you learn to onside-kick? Ballet school, you little wussy.” Well, after hearing that motivational speech, the knee-jerk reaction would be to lay the lumber with the Pats – especially since they are 16-3 ATS away and 19-4 ATS in non-division games off one-loss exact since 2000. However, double-digit road chalk is on a 2-16 ATS skid in this league since 2009 and the Pats, themselves, are 3-17 ATS in their last 20 as favorites of more than 11 points. Meanwhile, the Jags are 9-0-1 ATS in the regular season in franchise history off a double-digit loss when taking on a foe off a SU favorite loss. However, before we get too carried away, we should also point out that Jacksonville QB Chad Henne is 1-10 SU and ATS in his last 11 starts and 1-8 ATS at home versus non-division opposition. Now isn’t that ‘super.’ We’ll still grab the two-plus touchdowns – but with hesitance. If you do the same, we suggest you grab the clothespin and pray.

Indianapolis over KANSAS CITY by 3 The Colts were helped out by division rival Tennessee when the Titans knocked the Jets (a team that beat Indy) out of playoff contention on Monday night. And while a Cincinnati win on Sunday would now guarantee the ponies a playoff appearance, we know they’ll want to take matters into their own hands. And with Houston on deck next week, they better! The question becomes can they handle the pressure? Their 2-15 ATS mark off a double-digit SU loss versus an opponent off a double-digit SU loss, including 0-6 SU and ATS away, says no. But Brady ‘You have nothing on me, Chad Henne’ Quinn’s 4-14 SU record in his NFL career says yes. So does the fact that teams who are off a shutout loss from Game Thirteen out are a pack-it-in 8-18-2 ATS when facing a greater than .560 foe. However, our database also reminds us that the Chiefs are 8-1 ATS as non-division hosts off back-to-back road games while our NFL Coaches League reports that Romeo Crennel is a Juliet-like 8-0 ATS as a home dog of 5 or more points when off a SU loss. And has the Colts’ rookie QB fi nally run out of ‘Luck’? He has been held to under 200 yards the last two games, completed less than 50% of his passes the last three weeks and has 9 INT’s in his last fi ve contests. It’s another ‘crazy’ call, but Kansas City here we come. By now, you know the drill in backing another ‘hold-your-nose’ home dog.

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5� BEST BET

This just in from the profi lers at Criminal Minds: After paying homage to the recent zombie craze by mindlessly shuffl ing through a 34-0 loss to Atlanta last Sunday (10 fi rst downs and 3 turnovers), the Giants will purge those fi les from their collective brain and get back to business against the fading Ravens. Baltimore suffered a lopsided loss of its own a week ago, falling at home to Denver, 34-17, in new OC Jim Caldwell’s debut. Replacing the fi red Cam Cameron, he fared no better, going just 1-for-12 in 3rd-down situations as the black birds dumped their third straight game both SU and ATS. Do we hear ‘Four’? You bet we do. With Baltimore now swirling at 1-9 ‘In The Stats’ in its last 10 games, John Harbaugh’s team is going backwards faster than a DVR on rewind. Struggling QB Joe Flacco won’t be doing his team any favors here: he’s a dismal 3-9-1 ATS at home off a loss, including 1-6-1 ATS versus a foe off a loss of their own. Yes, the G-Men’s no-show versus the Falcons was a shocker but New York can still grab a Wild Card berth by winning its fi nal two games. It helps, too, that QB Manning is a solid 18-8 ATS in December when playing off a loss, and his team has cashed three straight tickets in non-division games following a shutout loss. The clincher? Coach Tom Coughlin is the answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER. Hey, the only thing keeping us off the Giants here is if the world ended two days ago… in which case, never mind. But if the ol’ wheel has kept a-turnin’, we suggest a celebratory play on the boys from big town.

Ny Giants over BALTIMORE by 11

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HOUSTON over Minnesota by 11Wow, Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson sure is something. We didn’t think he could regain the form he displayed before suffering a devastating knee injury last Christmas Eve but he’s proven us wrong (hear that, Marcus Lattimore?). He has a career-best 1,812 yards rushing in 2012, leaving him just 294 yards short of breaking Eric Dickerson’s record of 2,015 in one season. More important, though, Peterson has his Vikings in the thick of the playoff chase after posting consecutive SU underdog wins. But there’s a problem we can’t overlook when handicapping this game: Minny was outgained in both its previous wins, and that makes them a dog with a false sense of security. We also don’t like the Vikes’ -55 net YPG decline in the second half of the season, or their 0-6 ATS mark off a double-digit win when tackling the AFC. And when we say AFC, we mean the cream of the crop, a 12-2 Texans team that has clinched the South division and is poised to secure home fi eld advantage in the playoffs. Houston is a near-perfect 8-0-1 ATS in its franchise history versus an NFC foe off back-to-back wins and with the Texans boasting the league’s 5th-best rush D, we expect Minnesota’s momentum to fi zzle out sometime in the second quarter. Head coach Gary Kubiak’s 7-1 ATS effort from Game Thirteen out and his team’s current 9-4-1 ATS mark this season are just icing on the cake. We don’t usually say this but how would you like a big slice of ‘favorite’?

DENVER over Cleveland by 14This makes us think of reality TV footage where a stalled vehicle sits helplessly on tracks as a runaway train closes in: we’re not sure how severe the impact will be or how far the wreck will be dragged before pulling loose – we just know it won’t be pretty. And with Denver trailing the Texans by just one game (Broncs would lose tie-breaker) in the quest for home fi eld advantage, expect them to keep the pedal to the metal. Of course, it’s alway good when a QB like Peyton Manning is the one keeping it to the fl oor, as Denver’s recent 9-0 SU and 7-1-1 ATS (3-0 SUATS L3) skein would suggest. Denver has no plans to rest any starters as wins in the last two games would clinch the No. 2 seed and a bye week for the playoffs. “If we don’t play our best against Cleveland this week, it will all be for naught,” said head coach John Fox. Let’s give Cleveland due credit for notching its own 3-game win streak before crashing back to earth last week against the Redskins but our database warns us that the Browns are 0-6 ATS as non-division road dogs of 7 or more points off a SUATS loss against a greater-than .666 opponent. Yikes! The lean machine also notes:

Washington over PHILADELPHIA by 1Like Mick Jagger sang, “I’ve been bit and I’ve been tossed around, by every she-rat in this town,” and that’s just the way the Eagles have treated us this year. We had high hopes for Andy Reid’s team, so much so that when they started going bad, we tried to pull ‘em through – and got kicked repeatedly for our trouble, cracking a few ribs and taking some teeth along the way. But as awful as the Green Birds played last Thursday in their meltdown against Cincinnati (actually blocked one of their own punts), it’s easy to forget Philly covered its two previous outings. Not so easy to forget is that 31-6 humiliation the Eagles were forced to endure at FedEx Field fi ve weeks ago in RGIII’s coming-out party. We guarantee, to a man, that Philadelphia hasn’t. Tough to properly handicap this matchup as Griffi n’s questionable status will once again keep this game off the board until his situation is confi rmed. Backup QB Kirk Cousins fi lled Griffi n’s big shoes with fl air in last week’s 38-21 decision over Cleveland but Washington is in a tough spot here, standing 0-7 ATS off back-to-back wins versus a division opponent off a double-digit loss. Even though he’s worn the look of a man suffering severe gastrointestinal anguish for most of the season, Reid still owns a 19-8 ATS mark as a dog in regular season play from Game Thirteen out, and he’s guided his team to fi ve covers in the Eagles’ six most recent Last Home Game scenarios. The BIGGEST problem in taking the easy way out here is Washington’s Mike Shanahan and his 5-19 ATS failure as chalk in games off a SU dog win in his NFL career, including 0-9 ATS in division games. We’re not fading that, not in a revenge-fueled rivalry game where the Eagles can seriously damage the Redskins’ playoff hopes. Once more into the breach…

St. Louis over TAMPA BAY by 1It’s looking more and more like the spirited Bucs have hit the proverbial wall – and we mean HARD. Since beating Carolina back on November 18 to reach 6-4 SU on the year, the Jolly Rogers have gotten the heave-ho in four straight games, the last a 41-0 execution by New Orleans that was so savage it summoned up visions of an Aztec sacrifi ce. Young teams like the Buccaneers don’t bounce back quickly from a beating like that, even if our database tells us Game Thirteen-and-out teams off a shutout loss are 18-6 ATS when facing a sub .500 foe the next game… and especially not when Tampa Bay is a lifeless 0-5 ATS after allowing 35 or more points in ‘4th quarter games’ (Game Thirteen-Sixteen). The Rams got kicked around for 36 themselves last Sunday but St. Louis seems to prosper in today’s role, going 5-0 ATS after allowing 35 or more points versus a sub .500 non-division opponent. Most impressive is the Gateway crew’s penchant for kicking another team when they’re down: they’re 14-4 SU and 16-2 ATS against a team playing off three losses, the last by double digits. including 8-0 ATS off a loss and 5-0 ATS as a dog. Jeff Fisher’s durable dog log – currently a wallet-fattening 9-3 ATS in 2012 – closes the deal. We’ll meet you in Tampa but our money’s on St. Louie.

(continued on page 11)

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2-MINUTE HOOPS HANDICAPTEAMS, KEY FACTS, STATS & ATS TRENDS

(All Stats are ATS - Against The Spread - unless noted otherwise)

Saturday, December 22BOSTON COLLEGE over Providence by 10

After suffering a couple of heartbreaking losses in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off (lost by 2 points to UMass and 3 points to Penn State), Providence has reeled off four consecutive victories as of this writing (they should get a fi fth straight as they host Colgate on December 18th). However, our PLAYBOOK.com database says that streak stops tonight in Chestnut Hill as the Friars make their fi rst true road trip of the season against a BC team anxious to make amends for last year’s 64-57 setback in Providence. As it is, the Eagles are 11-7 SU and 11-6-1 ATS against their former Big East roommates since 2000, including 4-1-1 ATS when seeking revenge. With the Brain Chain 142-28 SU as a non-division host, this is a no-brainer.

OHIO ST over Kansas by 11There’s payback and then there’s payback. The Jayhawks’ fi rst true roadie of the season fi nds them in Columbus taking on a Buckeyes squad that has had this one circled since last March when they were bounced by Kansas in the national semifi nals. We could mention that KU is an astonishing 1-62-2 ATS in their last 65 SU losses against avenging foes, but since they were favored in 51 of those contests, the stat that really matters tonight is this one: 1-11-2 ATS as a dog versus a foe seeking revenge. And that ties in nicely to OSU’s 29-1 SU and 20-10 ATS mark in its last 30 lined home games against non-conference opposition. Ironically, that streak started on this exact day fi ve years ago against Florida and we’ll look for it to continue today as the host in this particular series is 3-0 ATS all-time. With that, we say lay the small spot as the Jayhawks fall to 0-2 SU and ATS versus the Big Ten (lost to Michigan State, 67-64, as 3-point chalk) this season. Jayhawks rocked at Value City Arena.

LA Lakers over GOLDEN STATE by 6 Remember the 1975 Minnie Riperton song ‘Lovin’ You’? For those that don’t, it goes ‘Lovin’ you, it’s easy cause you’re beautiful. La, la, la, la, la.’ We’ll, things aren’t very pretty in LA LA land these days as a coaching change, Steve Nash’s back issues and a lack of chemistry between Kobe and Howard have the Lakers off to an 11-14 start as of this writing. However, our old paper boy always told us to get it while its hot and the Lakers enter this division duel on a 3-game winning streak – assuming, of course, they beat the Bobcats at home on the 18th. It’s also time to grab the visitors while the value is present as they’ll be taking points in this series for only the fourth time in 16 years and fi rst since 2007. And wouldn’t you know it, the last three times the ‘Lake Show’ walked away with the cash. The Warriors also don’t come out to play at home as a pick or favorite with no

Friday, December 21Florida Atlantic @ INDIANA – Owls: 0-7-1 bef Troy… 0-3-1 as RD’s 24 > pts / Hoosiers: 5-0 as HF’s 20 > pts… 7-1 in 2nd of 3 straight HG’s.

Byu @ BAYLOR – Cougs: 0-4 dogs vs Big 12… 1-8 away in between HG’s vs non-conf opp / Bears: 4-1 vs West Coast Conf.

Saturday, December 22Temple vs Syracuse – Owls: 7-0 L7 vs Big East… 5-1 dogs w/2 days rest… Orange: 1-5 favs 20 < pts vs Atl 10… 2-5 neutral favs 6 > pts.

Texas @ MICHIGAN ST – Longhorns: 5-0 L5 vs Big 10… 3-1 non-conf dogs 8 > pts / Spartans: 1-5 non-conf HF’s 17 < pts… 1-4 off 3+ SU wins.

Kansas @ OHIO ST – Jayhawks: 1-8 L9 vs Big 10… 1-7 non-conf RF/RD 3 < pts / Buckeyes: 4-0 w/ 5+ days rest… 6-2 non-conf HF’s 7 < pts.

Missouri vs Illinois – Tigers: SERIES dog 5-1… 3-1 as dogs 4 < pts / Illini: 1-9 favs off BB HG’s… 1-6 favs 4 < pts.

Florida vs Kansas St – Gators: 4-1 vs Big 12… 6-2 away/neutral vs non-conf opp / Wildcats: 2-9 as HD’s > 7 pts.

Tuesday, December 25Oklahoma City over MIAMI by 6

If you forget to open that Fresno State/SMU Christmas Eve present – don’t worry – we’ve got you covered in Miami as our database notes that defending NBA champs are 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS on Christmas Day. It will also be the fi rst time that Kevin Durant and company will be seeing the Big Three since getting their doors blown off in last year’s NBA fi nals. We also want you to keep a close eye on Miami’s game with Utah on the 22nd as the Thunder are 7-1 ATS in this series in the regular season when the Heat arrive off a double-digit win. Better yet for OKC supporters, the ‘Heatles’ are 1-8 ATS as favorites after Jazzing it up, including 0-4 ATS at home. However, the bow on this beauty comes courtesy of our tireless database as it notes: the Thunder are 24-5 SU and ATS with four or more days rest if they are .588 or greater on the season. ‘Take’ another present as we say, ‘Merry Christmas’ to all.

NCAA & NBA HOOPS – DECEMBER 21-25

EDITOR’S NOTE: Issue No. 1 of the 2012-13 PLAYBOOK BASKETBALL NEWSLETTER covers games from Saturday, January 5 through Friday, January 11, 2013. The weekly newsletter features predictions on every College and NBA game, including Best Bet writeups on key games. To order, visit www.PLAYBOOK.com or call toll free at 1.800.752.9266.

rest off a previous home game, logging a 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS mark. Grab what you can get but you won’t need it as the Lakers improve to 32-4 SU in this series since 2004.

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2012-13 COLLEGE BASKETBALL POWER RATINGSACCBOSTON COLLEGE 79CLEMSON 83DUKE 100FLORIDA STATE 87GEORGIA TECH 83MARYLAND 91MIAMI FLORIDA 94NORTH CAROLINA 91NC STATE 92VIRGINIA 87VIRGINIA TECH 85WAKE FOREST 78

ATLANTIC 10BUTLER 92CHARLOTTE 83DAYTON 88DUQUESNE 79FORDHAM 75GEO WASHINGTON 82LA SALLE 84MASSACHUSETTS 85RHODE ISLAND 79RICHMOND 83SAINT LOUIS 84ST. BONAVENTURE 85ST. JOSEPH'S 89TEMPLE 89VCU 91XAVIER 85

BIG EASTCINCINNATI 92CONNECTICUT 87DEPAUL 85GEORGETOWN 90LOUISVILLE 98MARQUETTE 88

NOTRE DAME 92PITTSBURGH 90PROVIDENCE 82RUTGERS 84SETON HALL 84ST. JOHN'S 84SYRACUSE 99USF 84VILLANOVA 84

BIG TENILLINOIS 87INDIANA 98IOWA 87MICHIGAN 96MICHIGAN STATE 93MINNESOTA 94NEBRASKA 79NORTHWESTERN 86OHIO STATE 96PENN STATE 74PURDUE 86WISCONSIN 90

BIG 12BAYLOR 90IOWA STATE 87KANSAS 99KANSAS STATE 88OKLAHOMA 88OKLAHOMA STATE 88TCU 76TEXAS 85TEXAS TECH 71WEST VIRGINIA 85

BIG WESTCAL POLY 78CS FULLERTON 83CS NORTHRIDGE 77

HAWAII 76LONG BEACH STATE 76PACIFIC 82UC DAVIS 74UC IRVINE 78UC RIVERSIDE 69UC SANTA BARBARA 77

COLONIALDELAWARE 84DREXEL 79GEORGE MASON 83GEORGIA STATE 75HOFSTRA 72JAMES MADISON 75NORTHEASTERN 79OLD DOMINION 76TOWSON 72UNCW 73WILLIAM & MARY 75

CONFERENCE USAEAST CAROLINA 82HOUSTON 83MARSHALL 82MEMPHIS 89RICE 74SMU 83SOUTHERN MISS 84TULANE 80TULSA 79UAB 81UCF 85 UTEP 81

HORIZONCLEVELAND STATE 79DETROIT 85GREEN BAY 82ILLINOIS-CHICAGO 84

LOYOLA-CHICAGO 82MILWAUKEE 76VALPARAISO 85WRIGHT STATE 79YOUNGSTOWN ST 81

IVY LEAGUEBROWN 71COLUMBIA 80CORNELL 77DARTMOUTH 67HARVARD 85PENNSYLVANIA 74PRINCETON 80YALE 76

MID-AMERICANAKRON 86BALL STATE 77BOWLING GREEN 81BUFFALO 81CENTRAL MICHIGAN 73EASTERN MICHIGAN 77KENT STATE 81MIAMI OHIO 74NORTHERN ILLINOIS 70OHIO U 87TOLEDO 82WESTERN MICHIGAN 77

MISSOURI VALLEYBRADLEY 82CREIGHTON 93DRAKE 81EVANSVILLE 85ILLINOIS STATE 88INDIANA STATE 80MISSOURI STATE 77NORTHERN IOWA 87SOUTHERN ILLINOIS 80

WICHITA STATE 90

MOUNTAIN WESTAIR FORCE 80 BOISE ST 85COLORADO STATE 85FRESNO ST 79NEVADA 84NEW MEXICO 90SAN DIEGO STATE 92UNLV 91WYOMING 86

PAC-12ARIZONA 94ARIZONA STATE 81CALIFORNIA 88COLORADO 88 OREGON 90OREGON STATE 86STANFORD 89UCLA 91USC 85UTAH 82 WASHINGTON 83WASHINGTON STATE 83

SOUTHEASTERNALABAMA 87ARKANSAS 84AUBURN 78FLORIDA 94GEORGIA 82KENTUCKY 94LSU 82MISSISSIPPI 89MISSISSIPPI STATE 77MISSOURI 91SOUTH CAROLINA 79TENNESSEE 91

TEXAS A&M 83VANDERBILT 82

SUN BELTARK-LITTLE ROCK 76ARKANSAS STATE 79FLA ATLANTIC 75FLORIDA INT’L 74LA-LAFAYETTE 76LA-MONROE 67MIDDLE TENN STATE 87NORTH TEXAS 81SOUTH ALABAMA 82TROY 71WESTERN KENTUCKY 82

WEST COASTBYU 86 GONZAGA 92LMU 81PEPPERDINE 77PORTLAND 76SAN DIEGO 77SAN FRANCISCO 81SANTA CLARA 82ST. MARY'S 89

WACDENVER 81IDAHO 80LOUISIANA TECH 81NEW MEXICO STATE 86SAN JOSE STATE 76SEATTLE U 77TEXAS ST 76TEX-ARLINGTON 81UTAH STATE 85UTSA 76Add 5 points to each team's rating for home court value

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GAME MATCHUPS KEY OVER/UNDER STATS

N AT I O N A L F O O T B A L L L E A G U E – W E E K S I X T E E N

YTD record: 10-5 ATS (67%)... This week’s fi rst 8 games of the NFL schedule are listed below. As always, the number listed fi rst is the ‘OVER’ and the number listed second is the ‘UNDER’. This week’s 3 O/U BEST BETS will appear in the 2012 "TOTALS" TIPSHEET” by Victor King – the defi nitive weekly OU newsletter. A single issue is only $8.00. Sent via email Tuesday evenings each week. Call the PLAYBOOK offi ces at 800-643-4700 to get on the 2012 “Totals Train”! …*This week’s TREND play: Patriots @ Jaguars ’OVER’ the TOTAL.

AN 'OVER / UNDER' REPORT ON THIS WEEK'S NFL CARDBY VICTOR KING

THE 2-MINUTE HANDICAP: O/U STYLE

AtlantaDETROIT

TennesseeGREEN BAY

OaklandCAROLINA

BuffaloMIAMI

CincinnatiPITTSBURGH

New EnglandJACKSONVILLE

IndianapolisKANSAS CITY

New OrleansDALLAS

4-0 O/U Saturdays... 3-0 O/U off shutout win... 7-3 O/U bef TBay… 7-3 O/U road domes... but 1-7 O/U vs NFC North6-0-1 O/U aft score 10 < pts... 4-0 O/U bef Chi... 7-3 O/U vs NFC South... but 0-3 O/U Saturdays... 1-5 O/U non-div HD’s 4 < pts

4-0 O/U Gm 15... 4-1 O/U aft NYJ... 4-1 O/U non-div dogs 9 > pts... but 0-3 O/U bef Jax... 1-4 O/U aft Mon gm5-0 O/U vs opp off Mon gm... 9-1 O/U aft Chi... 4-1 O/U Last HG... 8-3 O/U non-div HF’s 9 > pts... 3-1 O/U L4 vs Ten (52.0)

9-1 O/U bef div RG... 4-1 O/U aft KC... but 0-4 O/U aft allow 7 < pts vs div opp... 1-8 O/U A off div HG... 2-8 O/U in 1st of BB RG3-0-1 O/U aft SD... 3-1 O/U L4 vs Oak (46.8)... but 0-4 O/U non-div HF’s 5 > pts... 1-4 O/U Last HG... 1-4 O/U bef Norl

6-2 O/U Gm 15... 9-3 O/U away vs div... but 1-4 O/U L5 vs Mia (37.0)... 2-7 O/U bef NYJ... 3-8 O/U off non-conf HG6-0 O/U bef NEng... 4-0 O/U Gm 15... but 1-5 O/U aft allow 7 < pts... 1-4 O/U in 2nd of BB HG... 3-8 O/U div HF’s 3 > pts

6-1 O/U off Thur gm... 8-2 O/U div RD’s < 7 pts... 4-1 O/U in 2nd of BB RG... but 0-3-1 O/U off non-conf RG... 1-4 O/U Gm 15 10-3 O/U div favs 5 < pts... but 0-5 O/U bef Clev... 1-5 O/U home TY (36.0)... 1-5 O/U aft Dal... 1-4 O/U L5 H vs Cin (34.6)

5-0 O/U off home fav loss... 5-0 O/U A vs .250 < opp Gm 13 >... 5-1 O/U non-div RF’s > 7 pts... 5-1 O/U vs AFC South8-0-1 O/U bef Ten... 7-0 O/U vs .750 > opp Gm 13 >... 6-0 O/U dogs > 4 aft scorer 3 < pts... 4-0 O/U aft Mia... 5-2 O/U Gm 15

5-1 O/U Gm 15... 5-1 O/U away off div RG... 3-1 O/U aft Hou... 5-2 O/U in 2nd of BB RG... but 1-5 O/U away vs AFC West 7-1 O/U vs AFC South... but 0-5 O/U off div RG... 0-4 O/U aft score 3 < pts... 1-6 O/U bef RG vs Den... 1-3 O/U aft Oak

6-0 O/U non-div dogs 4 < pts... 9-2 O/U vs NFC East... 8-3 O/U aft allow < 7 pts... but 2-8 O/U Gm 15... 1-3-1 O/U A off div HG 8-0 O/U 2nd of BB HG... 8-2 O/U off non-conf HG... 7-3 O/U non-div HF’s 4 < pts... but 1-4 O/U vs NFC South... 3-7 O/U Gm 15

Below are the Top 20 Contestants from the 2012 Wise Guys – One Point Single Plays Listed

COLTS

BROWNS

VIKINGS

BENGALS UND

NY GIANTS

Duke

BILLS

SF 49ERS

SF 49ERS

COLTS

19-9-2 / 11-4 / 30 pts

17-12-1 / 11-3-1 / 28 pts

18-11-1 / 11-4 / 29 pts

17-12-1 / *10-4-1 / 28 pts

16-13-1 / 10-5 / 26 pts

17-13 / 9-6 / 26 pts

19-11 / 12-3 / 31 pts

19-11 / 7-8 / 26 pts

18-12 / 8-7 / 26 pts

18-12 / 10-5 / 28 pts

WISE GUYS CONTESTA $10,000 Contest Sponsored by Sports-Watch.com

Now in its 28th year, the WISE GUYS CONTEST is a $10,000 winners-take-all handicapping event sponsored by Sports-Watch.com. All plays are graded against the lines contained in the Friday edition of the USA TODAY. Each week in the PLAYBOOK we'll present Single Plays from the TOP 20 point earners. Following the play is their overall Win-Loss record / Double Play record / Total Points earned to date.

Andy IskoeTheLogicalApproach.net

Billy ColemanBillyColemanSports.net

Brew City SportsBrewCitySports.net

Cajun SportsCajunSports.net

Fairway Jay@FairwayJay

Hurricane BillPlaybook.com

Jeff SaadJimFeist.TV

JH SportslineJHSportslinecom

Kevin KarrSpecialKSports.com

Lady ATSIntegritySports.com

Boise St UND

Smu

RAVENS

Washington

49ERS UND

Ball St

BRONCOS

C Michigan

Ball St

COLTS

19-11 / 10-5 / 29 pts

18-12 / 9-6 / 27 pts

16-13-1 / 10-5 / 26 pts

16-13-1 / *9-6 / 26 pts

16-14 / 10-5 / 26 pts

20-9-1 / 11-4 / 31 pts

17-13 / 10-5 / 27 pts

18-12 / 9-6 / 27 pts

16-14 / 10-5 / 26 pts

16-13-1 / 10-4-1 / 26 pts

Mr. EastMrEastSportsPicks.com

Nelly’s SportsNellySports.com

Richard WittPlaybook.com

Ross BenjaminRossBenjaminSports.com

Scott LandauScottLandau.com

Statfox DaveStatfox.com

Stormin NormanFreeSportsInfo.com

TD TonyASHNSports.com

The Wies Guyhttp://moneydogs.blogspot.ca

Tom FreesePlaybook.com

Add the Wise Guys report to your weekly arsenal for only $12 – www.VegasWiseGuys.com.

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A REVIEW OF THE CURRENT STAR-RATED BEST BET SELECTIONSTHIS WEEK'S BEST BETS

FOR WEEK ENDING MONDAY,DECEMBER 28, 2012 4� BEST BET3� BEST BET 5� BEST BET

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home teams during the fi nal two games of the season riding a 3-0 SUATS streak have gone 16-7-1 ATS when facing a .428 or less foe. Meanwhile, Fox, who doesn’t look quite so foolish now for leaving Carolina, chips in with an encouraging 8-1 ATS off a double-digit win versus a team that lost outright as chalk. As long as Peyton’s got that look in his eye (you know the one), we’re not jumping in front of this freight train today, even knowing the Fab 5 starting QB’s are a mind-blowing 13-1 ATS as dogs off a SUATS loss this campaign! Holidays or not, no Brownies for us this week.

ARIZONA over Chicago by 1We can only pray that you weren’t a survival pool player who went with Detroit over Arizona last Sunday. Talk about death in the desert; the Cardinals snapped a fan-alienating 9-game losing streak with their 38-10 taming of the Lions and saved head coach Ken Whisenhunt’s job for another week. Our database immediately informs us that the Whiz is 9-4 ATS at Glendale in the regular season from Game Thirteen out while all NFL home dogs off one-win exact as a home dog are a worthwhile 53-33-1 ATS. The Bears are one of fi ve 8-6 teams chasing the 8-6 Vikings for the fi nal spot in the playoffs but these guys appear to be coming apart at the seams: Chicago is banged up, confi dence is waning and injured star LB Brian Urlacher is taking swipes at the fans and the media. That’s too bad for head coach Lovie Smith, who is 5-1-1 ATS with revenge versus an opponent off a SU dog win (4-0-1 ATS versus non-division / 3-0 away). Good numbers for Mr. Smith but his slumbering Bears won’t like this: NFL road favorites that were home dogs in their previous game are 9-16 SU and 6-18-1 ATS if they own a win percentage of .400 or more and are facing an opponent off a SU underdog win. And while you’re mulling over the statistical probability of the cadaverous Cards covering two games in a row (hasn’t happened since late September), here’s a neat stat to consider. The Redbirds are 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS at University of Phoenix Stadium against the NFC North, including 9-0 ATS when not laying 3 or more points. We think things just went from neat to sweet in a heartbeat. Take the points.

San Francisco over SEATTLE by 1Would it be sacrilege to consider Seahawks QB Russell Wilson as a legitimate NFL Player of the Year candidate? The rookie 3rd-round draft pick – who seems to get smaller by the week – has Seattle humming along with an effi ciency that defi es logic. Paced by Wilson’s four touchdowns (3 rushing, 1 passing), the Hawks became only the third team in NFL history to score

50 or more in back-to-back games when they abused Buffalo last Sunday in Toronto, 50-17. Unfortunately for RW, teams who scored 50 or more points in their last game are just 1-6-1 ATS between the 3’s (+3 to -3) when facing a division foe. Few expected any sort of race out west: heading into November, the Seahawks were 4-4, two games behind division-leading San Francisco. (And remember, the Seahawks would not be in this position had it not been for the infamous replacement refs.) Since then, Seattle has gone 5-1 while the Niners barely lost ground with a 4-1-1 mark. The Bay City bunch sports the much better ATS numbers, though. They’re an impressive 7-0 ATS off back-to-back SUATS wins versus a foe off consecutive wins and if the Seahawks become the favorite, they’re 8-1 ATS as division road dogs of 9 or fewer points. No such luck for Pete Carroll’s crew. Not only is Seattle a disturbing 0-8 ATS as a favorite off a win of 14 or more points against a .500 or greater opponent, Carroll owns a miserable 1-7 ATS log as a favorite off back-to-back SUATS wins. Niners coach Harbaugh has yet to lose to Seattle (3-0) and doesn’t wish to start here. The nagging stat that keeps up at bay for the moment, though, is a sterling 15-3-1 ATS mark compiled by the Fab 5 rookies starting QBs this season when dressed as home dogs. With that, we’ll wait for the line to settle in before getting serious about a side in this fray. Note: in one of Roger Goodell’s better moves this season, this fl ex-game has been switched to the Sunday nighter on NBC.

NY JETS over San Diego by 4Handicapping bad towel-tossing teams at this stage of the season is like babysitting 2-year old brats – you never know what the hell they’re going to do next. Case in point: the San Diego Chargers. Honestly, how does a team score a head-scratching 34-24 win at Pittsburgh as a 7-point dog, then follow it up with a puzzling 31-7 home blowout loss to the mediocre Carolina Panthers? Do the names Norv Turner and Philip Rivers ring a bell? Making its second trek to the east coast in three weeks, Diego should be ripe for another beating here. The Chargers have short-circuited in today’s role with an awful 1-10 ATS mark on the road in regular season AFC East encounters, including 0-7 ATS in the last seven. The Norvous One’s team has also struggled to a 1-8 ATS mark after allowing 28 or more points in ‘4th quarter games.’ The Jets are no lock by any means, eliminated from playoff contention after scoring just 10 points in last week’s loss at Tennessee. Still, the Flyboys are 6-1 ATS of late in this series and have cashed six straight tickets off a Monday game when taking on a non-division foe. A weak vote for a weak team: J-E-T-S.

(continued from page 7)

page 12 • www.PLAYBOOK.com • 1.800.PLAYBOOK

WASHINGTON 1:00 PM PHILADELPHIA

ST. LOUIS 1:00 PM TAMPA BAY

NY GIANTS 4:25 PM TIME CHANGE BALTIMORE

MINNESOTA 1:00 PM HOUSTON

CLEVELAND 4:05 PM DENVER

117 118

119 120

121 122

123 124

123 124

4’ 1

3

1

Pk

11

7 11

12 14

2012-13 PRO FOOTBALL - DECEMBER 22-23

ATLANTA 8:30 PM DETROIT NFL

101 102

3

6

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 22

TENNESSEE 1:00 PM GREEN BAY

OAKLAND 1:00 PM CAROLINA

103 104

105 106

12’ 15

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 23

BUFFALO 1:00 PM MIAMI

CINCINNATI 1:00 PM PITTSBURGH NEW ENGLAND 1:00 PM JACKSONVILLE

INDIANAPOLIS 1:00 PM KANSAS CITY

NEW ORLEANS 1:00 PM DALLAS

107 108

109 110

111 112

113 114

115 116

5 3

4 8

14’ 11

6 3

3

10

CHICAGO 4:25 PM ARIZONA

SAN FRANCISCO 8:20 PM TIME CHANGE SEATTLE NBC

SAN DIEGO 1:00 PM TIME CHANGE NY JETS

127 128

129 130

131 132

5’

1

�

�

�

9 13

PLAYBOOK MIDWEEK ALERT • 1.800.752.9266 • www.PLAYBOOK.com

AIR FORCE 11:45 (Forth Worth, TX) RICE ESPN

229 230 Pk

INDEPENDENCE BOWL

LAS VEGAS BOWL

BALL ST 7:30 (St. Petersburg, FL) UCF ESPN 7’

207 208

POINSETTIA BOWL IOWA ST 3:30 (Memphis, TN) TULSA ESPN

243 244

1

GEORGIA TECH 2:00 (El Paso, TX) USC CBS

241 242 10

SUN BOWL

223 224 6’

OHIO U 2:00 (Shreveport, LA) LA-MONROE ESPN

NO ILLINOIS 8:30 (Miami Gardens, FL) FLORIDA ST ESPN

257 258 15

WISCONSIN 5:00 (Pasadena, CA) STANFORD ESPN

255 256 6

NEBRASKA 1:00 (Orlando, FL) GEORGIA ABC

253 254 9’

MICHIGAN 1:00 (Tampa, FL) S CAROLINA ESPN

251 252 3’

NORTHWESTERN 12:00 (Jacksonville, FL) MISS ST ESPN2

249 250 3

OUTBACK BOWL

GATOR BOWL

PURDUE 12:00 (Dallas, TX) OKLA ST ESPNU

247 248

HEART OF DALLAS BOWLMINNESOTA 9:00 (Houston, TX) TEXAS TECH ESPN

227 228 12’

RUTGERS 5:30 (Orlando, FL) VA TECH ESPN

225 226 2

RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL

SMU 8:00 (Honolulu, HI) FRESNO ST ESPN

213 214 12’

HAWAII BOWL

C MICHIGAN 7:30 (Detroit, MI) W KENTUCKY ESPN

215 216 6

LITTLE CAESARS PIZZA BOWL

E CAROLINA ESPN 12:00 (New Orleans, LA) LA-LAFAYETTE

209 210 4’

BEEF O’BRADY’S BOWL

PITTSBURGH 1:00 (Birmingham, AL) MISSISSIPPI ESPN

265 266 3

BYU 8:00 (San Diego, CA) S DIEGO ST ESPN

205 206

3

1

TOLEDO 4:30 (Boise, ID) UTAH ST ESPN

203 204 10 6

IDAHO POTATO BOWL

NEVADA 1:00 (Albuquerque, NM) ARIZONA ESPN

201 202 9 3

2012-13 COLLEGE BOWLS: DECEMBER 15-JANUARY 7

OL PB

NEW MEXICO BOWL

OL PB OL PB OL PBSATURDAY, DECEMBER 15

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 20

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 21

WASHINGTON 3:30 (Las Vegas, NV) BOISE ST ESPN

211 212 5’

NEW ORLEANS BOWL

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 22

221 222 1

CINCINNATI 6:30 (Charlotte, NC) DUKE ESPN

219 220

10

BELK BOWL

OREGON ST 6:45 (San Antonio, TX) TEXAS ESPN

235 236

1

PINSTRIPE BOWL

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 29

NC STATE 12:00 (Nashville, TN) VANDERBILT ESPN

239 240 6’

MUSIC CITY BOWL

CLEMSON 7:30 (Atlanta, GA) LSU ESPN

245 246 3’

17

CAPITAL ONE BOWL

LOUISVILLE 8:30 (New Orleans, LA) FLORIDA ESPN

259 260 13’

TEXAS A&M 8:00 (Arlington, TX) OKLAHOMA FOX

263 264

3’

KANSAS ST 8:30 (Glendale, AZ) OREGON ESPN

261 262 7’

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 2

FIESTA BOWL

SATURDAY, JANUARY 5

COMPASS BOWL

ARKANSAS ST 9:00 (Mobile, AL) KENT ST ESPN

267 268

3

SUNDAY, JANUARY 6

GODADDY.COM BOWL

ALABAMA 8:30 (Miami Gardens, FL) NOTRE DAME ESPN

269 270

7’

MONDAY, JANUARY 7

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

SEASON’S GREETINGS FROM MARC LAWRENCE AND THE ENTIRE PLAYBOOK STAFF!

Coming In The Next PLAYBOOK Issue: The Armed Forces Bowl

(12/29) thru the BCS National Championship Game (1-7)!

MONDAY, DECEMBER 24

BAYLOR 9:45 (San Diego, CA) UCLA ESPN

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 28

SUGAR BOWL

NAVY 4:00 (San Francisco, CA) ARIZONA ST ESPN2

231 232 13’

FIGHT HUNGER BOWL

ROSE BOWL

ORANGE BOWL

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 26

BOWLING GREEN 3:00 (Washington, D.C.) SAN JOSE ST ESPN

217 218 7’

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 27

MILITARY BOWL

ARMED FORCES BOWL

WEST VIRGINIA 3:15 (Bronx, NY) SYRACUSE ESPN

233 234

3’

ALAMO BOWL

BUFFALO WILD WINGS BOWLTCU ESPN 10:15 (Tempe, AZ) MICHIGAN ST

237 238

2

THURSDAY, JANUARY 3

COTTON BOWL

FRIDAY, JANUARY 4

HOLIDAY BOWL

LIBERTY BOWL

TUESDAY, JANUARY 1

CHICK-FIL-A BOWL

MONDAY, DECEMBER 31

1

All times listed are Eastern Standard Time • Games in Offi cial International Rotation sequence • Dates & times subject to change

Listed next to the games below are two entries: OL is the opening line on the contest and PB is the PLAYBOOK margin on the game. You have a PLAYBOOK BEST BET whenever our predicted margin of victory is 7 or more points in favor of your line. Remember, opening lines are subject to change during the week so always check YOUR CURRENT LINE against the

PLAYBOOK line to determine a play. All times listed are Eastern Standard Time • Games in Offi cial International Rotation sequence • Dates & times subject to change

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