Niger Vulnerability Map - March 2014 PURPOSE OF MAP: The purpose of the map is to identify "hot spots" of vulnerability based on a confluence of a wide variety of overlapping vulnerability indicators. Seeing where many relevant indicators overlap can allow one to begin to question causal relationships and underlying issues in particular zones . Hot spots identified in this map speak to the need for both further assessments (ground truthing) and multi­sectoral approaches to programming . Vulnerability is composed of a complexity of factors and no single intervention can create resilience. This map is primarily meant to be a thought piece to generate further discussions and the evolution of development programming.

Legend

Vulnerability Score

Value High: 100

Lack of Ada

Legend

Vulnerability Score Value

High : 100

tive Ca a cit

More Red=

Low: 0

% of Households Farm Landless

SOURCE: VVorld bank. 2011 livi ng ~tandards rr.easurement sun:ey (LSMS)

Soil Organic Carbon Density (proxy for soil fertility)

+

Y..b rlrl So illr1fmmalion , 2013

+

+

Lower Adaptive Capacity (less ability to adapt to shocks)

Population Count Distribution (general proxy for access to services)

SOURCE: Afripop 2015 Esiim~te

Tropical Livestock Units (TLU) Composite Index for Livestock Assets

+

SOURCE: World bank 201 1 1iving standards measurement sur,•ey (LSMS)

MoreRed= + Less Livestock Assets

% of Children who Passed CFEPD (End of primary school exam)

SOURCE: M inistry of Educa1icn Niger - 2013

More Red= Less% Children Passed

~ · .a.• I

Total Time Required to Get Water

SOURCE: Worlo;t bank. 2011 Irving staMaro;ts measurement su rvey (LSMS)

Poverty Rates by Region

__ __,,....--.., SOURCE: INSiMEF, OUIBB 2005 • Agadez & Diffa from 2004

More Red= Higher Poverty

+

Legend

Vulnerability Score by Commune Legend

MEAN

- 3 - 14

** Communes with vulnerability score > 55 have been labeled on map

- 15-22

23 - 28

0 29-35

CJ 36 - 42

CJ 43-49

D 50 - 55

- 56 - 60

- 61 - 67

- 68 - 88

Sensitivit

Vulnerability Score

Value High · 100

More Red=

Low: 0

Historic Zones of Undernutrition (SMART, Admissions as % of Pop)

*Double Weighting

.... ... HISTORIC Severe Acute Malnu1rition (SAM)

· Double 'J\Ie ighting

HISTORIC Severe Malnutrition Admissions as % of 1otal Pop. • Ooub :e weighting

HISTORIC Chronic Malnutrition Rates

+

More Sensitivity to future shocks

Conflict/Stability Composite Index +

HISTORIC Locations and Intensity Current Refugee Loc ations of Conflicts (ACLED Database) and by Count (UNHCR)

·Doub le 'JVeighting

+ % Head of Households having

Quranic Education

CVE Core and Non..core Communes (USAID- PDEV)

SOURCE: USAIO PDEV Program

More Red= .._ More USAID CVE work

Historical Zones of Food Insecurity (FEWSNET, SAP, WFP)

t ..

More Red= Higher Prediction of Food Insecurity

.. HISTORIC Food Insecurity

Outlook IPC Ratings (FEWSNET)

r-l i'::~~~;~~ - FEVVSNET _... · , 2009 - 2013

+ HISTORIC SAP (na tional early warning

sys1em) Vulnerable Communes

HISTORIC WFP % of Pop. Severely Food Insecure

+

Top 50 Vulnerable Communes COMMUNE REGION POPULATION

TAN OUT ZINOER 134074

ZINOER ZINOER 274530

GOUCHI ZINDER 47978

TENHIA ZINOER 21205

OUNGASS ZINOER 100431 GANGARA ZINOER 40796

FAlANKO ZINOER 4561

ALBER KARAM ZINOER 15414 TARKA ZINOER 89533 WAM E ZINOER 32695

DAMAGARAM TAKA YA ZINOER 46178

MOA ZINOER 26290

MALlAOUA ZINDER 67329

WACHA ZINOER 67334 DOGO OOGO ZINOER 42011

GADABEDJI M ARAOI 5328

OLLELEWA ZINOER 105167

DAKOUSSA ZINOER 54330

GOUDOUMAR IA DIFFA 102800 DOGO ZINDER 86306 TESKER ZIN OER 34641

GUIOIM OUNI ZINOER 54579

GAFFATI ZINOER 43097 ZERMOU ZINOER 24987

TCAOAOUA MA RADI 91507

ARLIT AGADEZ 112432 TIRMINI ZINDER 97247

TOU MOUR DIFFA 1336

MIRRIAH ZINOER 60805

OOUNGOU ZINOER 32081

BOSSO DIFFA 521 77 MAZAMNI ZINOER 8994

KO LERAM ZINOER 25978

HAM OARA ZINDER 32006

KANTCHE ZINDER 51333

GO UNA ZINDER 55666

TIBIRI MA RADI 114424 GANGARA MA RADI 40796

SASSOUMBROU M ZINOER 57166

AGAD EZ AGADEZ 124324

ALLAKOS ZINOE R 21279

KELLE ZINDER 62003 KO ROHANE MA RAOI 9551

MAIYARA MA RADI 56087

GARAGOUMSA ZINDER 64257 GUIDAN ROUMOJI MA RADI 88690

AGU IE MA RADI 142182 MAINE SOROA DIFFA 94074

NGUELBEYLI DIFFA 1413

ICHIRNAWA ZINOER 35045

USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE

Basic Methodology:

Step 1: Define relevant i n d ic~tors of vu lnerability to use in analysis

Step 2 : Co nvert geographically disaggregated indicator data to raste r format

Step 3: Winsorize data where appropriat e based on histogra m CJna lysis

This is done to prevent data fro m being skewed by outlie r da ta.

Step 4: Rescale al l data sets to a common 0-JOO sca le so that they are compara ble.

Step 5 : Average composites of releva nt indicators. Use weight ine when

appropr iate based on expert judgment

Niger Border Countries and Population Distribution

Algeria

Niger

More Red= Less Population

Nigeria

Chad

African Republic

Ex osure

Legend

Vulnerability Score Value

High: 100

Low 0

• "S~ . .

•

More Red= More Exposure to Climate and Price Shocks

HISTORIC Frequency of Dry Spells (no rain for >=15 days during season)

HISTORIC Average Temperature (during rainy season, JJAS)

HISTORIC Coefficient of Variation of NDVI (variability of "greenness"- 2000 onwards) ~Doub l e weighting since cvNDVI is such a commonly

used dataset (as a proxy) for measuring rainfall va riabi lity

SOURCE: ARC2 - gridded da ily ra infa ll estimates (RFE) - 1994 to 2013

Higher Frequency of Dry Spells

+ SOURCE: Univero;ity of Eas\Angl ra's Climabc Research Un ite (UEA'CRU)- 2000 thru 2D 11

More Red= Higher Average Temperature +

SOURCE: MOD IS EVI 2000-2014 , SP.ctmd lmlf of Aug.

More variability in green (proxy for rainfall)

HISTORIC Millet Price Volatility (price shock)

HISTORIC Rainfall Variability (cvRFE)

+ SOURCI: : FI: '~'SNI:T

cvRFE 2001 - 2013

MoreRed= + Higher Rainfall Variability

T Double weighting to balance against large amount of climate shock data layers . This layer represents I he only PRICE SHOCK data layer

SOURCE: SIMA & USA!D FE\NS-NET, '•993-2012 {Mar~h )

More Red= Higher Millet Price Volatility

For more information contact: Jeremy Chevrier

Regional Geospatial Analyst Sahel Regional Offi ce

USAID/Senegal Email: JChevrier@usaid.gov