niam – iiasa 23 rd march 2009 assessment with the italian national iam of technical and...

NIAM – IIASA 23rd March 2009

Assessment with the Italian national IAM of technical and non-technical measures in

the Regional Air Quality Management Plans

I. D’Elia, M. Bencardino, L. Ciancarella, M. Contaldi, G. Vialetto

ENEA


DLgs n. 351 – 4/08/1999

With the Italian decree n. 351/1999 to implement the European Directive 96/69/CE, the air pollution prevention, improvement

and preservation have been assigned to the Italian administrative Regions while the European Directive implementation remains at

a national level

INTRODUCTION: The project

The REGIONAL AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT PLANS (AQMPs)

a fundamental phase of the entire process of assessment, planning and management where air quality measures should be

defined and adopted

Each Italian Region has to elaborate its own AQMPs in order to meet established environmental target

Assessment with the Italian national IAM of technical and non-technical measures in the Regional Air Quality Management Plans



The Italian Regional AQMPs includes both technical and non technical measures that regard different areas producing POLICY INTEGRATION

The version of the RAINS-Italy model used to assess the Regional AQMPs is restricted to END-of PIPE measures.

The behavioural measure analysis is left to the evaluation of alternative driving force exogenous scenarios.

AQMPs have been assessed comparing the

CLE scenario and the different alternative

scenarios coming from the evaluation of TMs

and NTMs

The aim of the project is the assessment of the AQMPs and to draw up a reasoned list about all the TMs and NTMs adopted in the Regional AQMPs.

INTRODUCTION: The project



1. Many NTM definitions in literature but no consensus among them and the difference between TM and NTM;

2. Often TM = end-of-pipe measure; NTM = structural and behavioural changes;

3. NTMs are NOT completely independent from technology changes;

4. No agreement in distinguishing NTMs and policy instruments;

5. RAINS-Italy modelled only the TMs

INTRODUCTION: TM and NTM definition

DEFINITION ADOPTED:

NTMs represent consumption reduction, substitution, technology choice and technology use. In classifying the measure as NTM, a major role to human choice has been attributed



Control Strategy definition

Technical Measures

RAINS-Italy

Emission inventory

Harmonization with

national/local emission

inventoriesActivity input data scenario

INPUT SCENARIO DEFINITION

(CLE, MTFR...)

Non Technical Measures

INTRODUCTION: TM and NTM definition


HARMONIZATIONHARMONIZATION

CLE INPUT DATA SCENARIOCLE INPUT DATA SCENARIOEnergy, Activity levels, Control Energy, Activity levels, Control

StrategyStrategy

AQ AQ MEASURESMEASURES

AQ SCENARIO =AQ SCENARIO =Reference ScenarioReference Scenario

MAPSMAPS


Project Methodology

between a regional emission inventory and RAINS-Italy emissions at a given base

year;

Definition of a regional energy and

non energy scenario, and

regional control strategy.

The regional energy scenario:

1. Not available in many Regions;

2. Obtained downscaling the national projection + regional information

3. Coherence with the national official energy projection;



0

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3

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8

9

10

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

Measures

n°r

egio

ns

Energy, Domestic and Road Transport regional measure adoption frequency

1 = Urban Waste incineration with heat recovery; 2 = Biogas recovery in agricultural and in farming sectors; 3 = District heating Plant with waste and biomass; 4 = Photovoltaic; 5 = Wind; 6 = Hydroelectric; 7 = Geothermic Well; 8 = High efficiency domestic boilers; 9 = Energy efficiency in building;10 = Residential heating accountability;11 = Heat pumps;

12 = Solar heating systems;13 = Regulation of some fuel use;14 = Incentives for shift to natural gas in domestic boilers;15 = Efficiency improvements in fireplaces and stoves;16 = Low emission zones;17 = Road traffic restriction;18 = Pollution charge;19 = Car sharing;20 = Motorway speed limits;21 = Bike sharing;22 = Incentives for new cars;

23 = Incentives for new diesel heavy duty;24 = Opening new rail lines;25 = Opening new underground lines;26 = Cycle paths;27 = Sea motorway;28 = Bus investment (new buses, service extension, frequency increase);29 = Antiparticulate filter;30 = Incentives for biofuel public transport;31 = New methane service stations;32 = Incentive for hydrogen cars;33 = Rationalising load transport in urban area;



MEASURES PARAMETERS RAINS-Italy- estimation of biomass consumption increase- type of new waste incineration plant (EF, efficiency…)- estimation of fossil fuel consumption decrease in power plant- estimation of fossil fuel consumption decrease in the domestic sector- fossil fuel power plant efficiency- domestic boiler efficiency- spatial applicability of the measure- estimation of biomass and waste consumption increase- type of new waste incineration plant (EF, efficiency…)- estimation of fossil fuel consumption decrease in power plant- estimation of fossil fuel consumption decrease in the domestic sector- fossil fuel power plant efficiency- domestic boiler efficiency- spatial applicability of the measure- substitution rate of domestic boiler

- new domestic boiler efficiency

- domestic boiler efficiency assumed in the CLE scenario- new domestic boiler EF

- estimation fuel consumption reduction

- allocation of domestic fuel reduction through the different fuels- spatial applicability of the measure

- control strategy: PP: verify technology for new plants

- control strategy: PP: verify technology for new plants

District Heating Plant with waste and biomass

High efficiency domestic boilers

- energy scenario: PP_NEW: increase of waste and biomass consumption; reduction of fossil fuel consumption + DOM: decrease of fossil fuel

- energy scenario: PP_NEW: increase of waste and biomass consumption; reduction of fossil fuel consumption + DOM: decrease of fossil fuel

- energy scenario: DOM: decrease of fossil fuel

consumption

- control strategy: DOM: increase technology

penetration

Urban Waste incineration with heat recovery



MEASURES PARAMETERS RAINS-Italy

- buildings involved in the energy efficiency process divided in old and new

- energy requirement to reach in new and old building- energy requirement assumed in the CLE scenario- estimation of fuel reduction consumed in the domestic sector- allocation of domestic fuel reduction through the different fuels- spatial applicability of the measure- Low emission zone extension- fleet involved by the measure- urban speed- spatial applicability of the measure- 2 hypothesis:1) car substitution2) fuel reduction: in this case* fuel consumption reduction of cars* fuel increase of buses- fleet involved by the measure- spatial applicability of the measure- car replaced by the incentives

Incentives for new cars- control strategy

modification

Energy efficiency in building- energy scenario: DOM: decrease of fossil fuel

consumption

Low emission zones

- control strategy modification

or

- energy scenario modification



-35.00%

-30.00%

-25.00%

-20.00%

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

SO2 NOx PM10 SO2 NOx PM10 SO2 NOx PM10 SO2 NOx PM10 SO2 NOx PM10 SO2 NOx PM10

Urban Wasteincineration with heat

recovery

District Heating Plantwith waste and

biomassHigh efficiency

domestic boilersEnergy efficiency in

building Low emission zonesIncentives for new

cars

SO2, NOx, PM10 emission saved (%) on total sectoral regional emission calculated respect to the CLE scenario at 2010

The additive bars show the different sectoral emission reduction for each Region

where the AQ measures were applied



-8.00%

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

SO2 NOx PM10 SO2 NOx PM10 SO2 NOx PM10 SO2 NOx PM10 SO2 NOx PM10 SO2 NOx PM10

Urban Wasteincineration with heat

recovery

District Heating Plantwith waste and

biomassHigh efficiency

domestic boilersEnergy efficiency in

building Low emission zonesIncentives for new

cars

SO2, NOx, PM10 emission saved (%) on total regional emission calculated respect to the CLE scenario at 2010



1 = Urban Waste incineration with heat recovery; 2 = Biogas recovery in agricultural and in farming sectors; 3 = District heating Plant with waste and biomass; 4 = Photovoltaic; 5 = Wind; 6 = Hydroelectric; 7 = Geothermic Well; 8 = High efficiency domestic boilers; 9 = Energy efficiency in building;10 = Residential heating accountability;11 = Heat pumps;

12 = Solar heating systems;13 = Regulation of some fuel use;14 = Incentives for shift to natural gas in domestic boilers;15 = Efficiency improvements in fireplaces and stoves;16 = Low emission zones;17 = Road traffic restriction;18 = Pollution charge;19 = Car sharing;20 = Motorway speed limits;21 = Bike sharing;22 = Incentives for new cars;

23 = Incentives for new diesel heavy duty;24 = Opening new rail lines;25 = Opening new underground lines;26 = Cycle paths;27 = Sea motorway;28 = Bus investment (new buses, service extension, frequency increase);29 = Antiparticulate filter;30 = Incentives for biofuel public transport;31 = New methane service stations;32 = Incentive for hydrogen cars;33 = Rationalising load transport in urban area;

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10

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

Measures

n°r

egio

ns

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Contribution (%) by measure to PM10 emission savings

Energy, Domestic and Road Transport regional measure adoption frequency



AQ emission scenario

For each of the 20 Regions both CLE and

QA emission scenarios were

calculated by the RAINS-Italy model at

a 5-year interval

Other2%

Road Transport

19%

Domestic19%

Livestock15%

Waste6%

Industry23%

Off-road Transport

13%

Power Plants2%

Refinery1%

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

15.0

18.0

21.0

24.0

27.0

30.0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

PM

10 e

mis

sions

(kt)

Other

Waste

Livestock

Maritime

Off-road Transport

Road Transport

Domestic

Industry

Refinery

Power Plants

PM10 emissions by sector at 2010


QA and CLE PM10 concentration scenario comparison at 2010QA/CLE (%) QA/CLE (g/m3)


PM10 concentration at 2010 calculated by RAINS-Italy (20x20 km2)

PM10 concentration at 2010 calculated by Lombardia dispersion model (5x5 km2)



CONCLUSION

- No more TMs alone are enough to meet environmental targets, changes are also required in our behaviours both as individuals and societies;- Lack a consensus upon NTM definition and often confused with policy instruments;- NTMs not completely independent from technology changes and often supported by fiscal/economic incentives;- The realization of a shared and unique guideline/database could be an important step to find NTM air pollution impacts, their market and non-market costs, the possible implemental instruments, their social effects…;- The inclusion of NTMs in the modelling process still contain uncertainties; - In Italy the NTMs dominate the domestic and transport sector where they represent half of the emission reduction of the AQMPs;- NTMs are greatly influenced by regional factors and their influence on emission reduction depend on spatial and applicability variations;- Next step: cost analysis

niam – iiasa 23 rd march 2009 assessment with the italian national iam of technical and...

Documents

nontechnical measures

air quality measures

italian regional aqmps

pipe measures

niam iiasa

ntm definition slide

italian decree

ntm definition definition