nhbc social housing group november 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light...
TRANSCRIPT
Social Housing Group Meeting
10th November 2011
© Best Companies Limited
Mehban Chowdery Regional Director NHBCMehban Chowdery, Regional Director NHBC
© Best Companies Limited
Steve EvansSteve EvansBuilding Control Manager, NHBC
© Best Companies Limited
Part L 2010 – Code 2010
Richard StockholmOperations ManagerOperations Manager
Transitional Arrangementsg
Developments eligible for compliance with Part L1A 2006 of Building Regulations will be able to register against the May 2009 version of the Codeagainst the May 2009 version of the Code INDEFINITELY.
All other developments will be automatically registered to November 2010 Technical Guidance.
Therefore there is a possibility that both SAP2005 & 2009 will be required for Code assessments.
Which Code Technical Guidance -May 2009 or Nov 2010?
Code Level 3 mandatory requirement for energy: May 2009 = 25% improvement over Part L1A2006 Nov 2010 = compliance with Part L1A 2010 Nov 2010 = compliance with Part L1A 2010
Isn’t that the same thing?
Changes to SAP methodology SAP 2005 and SAP 20092009
Part L1A 2010 compliance solution might not be the Csame as Part L1A 2006 Code Level 3
Ene 1: Dwelling Emission RateMandatory requirement for each Code level
Up to nine credits are awarded on a sliding scale. The scale is based on increments of 0 1 credits distributed equally between the benchmarks defined
up to 10 credits available increments of 0.1 credits, distributed equally between the benchmarks defined in this table.
Code level 3: M 2009May 2009
Typical dwelling:
59.15%
Code level 3: N 2010Nov 2010
Typical dwelling:
(Part L1A 2010 regs) ( g )
51.25%
5.75% required to
meet CSH 3
- options?
Ene 3: Energy Display Devices
R l I t l Li hti dit (d t h i P tReplaces Internal Lighting credits (due to change in Part L1A 2010 requirements). Two credits available:
1 credit - where current electricity OR primary heating fuel consumption data are displayed to occupants2 credits - where current electricity AND primary heating fuel consumption data are displayed to occupants
Correctly specified energy display device includes:-S lf h i fi d t th i i i Self charging sensor fixed to the incoming mains supply/supplies
Visual presentation of data (non numeric)Visual presentation of data (non numeric) Display of accurate account balance
Ene 2: Fabric Energy EfficiencyMandatory requirement for each Code level
Credits are awarded on a sliding scale. The scale is based on increments of 0 1 credits distributed equally between the benchmarks defined in this table
up to 9 credits available 0.1 credits, distributed equally between the benchmarks defined in this table.
What Effects Fabric Energy Efficiency Standards?
What is Thermal Bridging?
Thermal Bridging in Part L
D f lt t 0 15• Default to 0.15• Calculate using psi values from approved thermal
bridging details from and ACD Body• Calculate using psi value calculations not approved by
ACD body, and apply +0.02 W/mK or 25% to the calculated y-value
List Of Accredited Construction Details
What does an Accredited detail look like?
Alternative Sources for Psi Values• Aircrete Products Association• Besblock• Besblock• Space 4 • Eco-Slab • Prestoplan
Or bespoke psi value for the junction has been calculatedOr bespoke psi value for the junction has been calculated which must be supported with evidence.
What is a Psi ψ Value?
Thermal Bridging
Calculated Thermal Bridging Values
Diff i l l t d l i ACD d t ilDifference in calculated y-value using ACD details• End terrace y-value 0.096• Mid terrace y-value 0.118• Detached y-value 0.074 (0.011)y ( )• Ground Floor Corner y-value 0.116
TrendsTrends
TrendsTrends
What about windows?
L l b tt ?• Lower u-values better?• Solar Gain• G Factor• Check effect of changing windowsg g
Part L 2010 – Achieving CompliancePart L 2010 Achieving Compliance
Code Level 3: Energy specification
Part L1A 2006 + 25% Part L1A 2010 (FEE = 49.07)
Fabric and MVHR
Greenwood HRV2 Greenwood HRV2
250L store 250L store
Floor u-value 0.12. (150mm Kingspan TF 70) Floor u-value 0.12. (150mm Kingspan TF 70)
Wall u-value 0.18. (100mm cavity with XtrathermCavitytherm)
Wall u-value 0.18. (100mm cavity with XtrathermCavitytherm)
Roof u-value 0 11 (400mm mineral wool between Roof u-value 0 11 (400mm mineral wool betweenRoof u value 0.11 (400mm mineral wool between and over (thermal conductivity 0.040)).
Roof u value 0.11 (400mm mineral wool between and over (thermal conductivity 0.040)).
Window u-value 1.5 Window u-value 1.6
Door u-value 1.0 Door u-value 1.2
Air permeability rate – 4.5 Air permeability rate – 7 (tested dwellings to achieve 5 or lower).
30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1Acompliant) 100% of dedicated low energy light fittings
91% efficiency gas condensing boiler (Sedbuk2005)
89% efficiency gas condensing boiler (Sedbuk2009)
Time and temperature zone control Programmer/room stat/TRV’s
Weather compensator Weather compensatorWeather compensator Weather compensator
Code Level 3: Energy specificationPV Panels
Part L1A 2006 + 25% Part L1A 2010 (FEE = 55.89)
0.75 kWp (SE/SW) 0.5 kWp (SE/SW) 250L store 250L store
Floor u-value 0.12. (150mm Kingspan TF 70) Floor u-value 0.19. (80mm Kingspan TF 70)
Wall u-value 0.25. (100mm cavity full filled with Dritherm 32. Inner block to be Celcon standard or similar (thermal conductivity 0.19)).
Wall u-value 0.25. (100mm cavity full filled with Dritherm 32. Inner block to be Celcon standard or similar (thermal conductivity 0.19)).
Roof u-value 0.11 (400mm mineral wool between and over (thermal conductivity 0.040)).
Roof u-value 0.11 (400mm mineral wool between and over (thermal conductivity 0.040)).
Window u-value 1.6 Window u-value 1.7Door u value 1 57 Door u value 1 57Door u-value 1.57 Door u-value 1.57
Air permeability rate – 5 Air permeability rate – 7 (tested dwellings to achieve 5 or lower).
100% of dedicated low energy light fittings 100% of dedicated low energy light fittings100% of dedicated low energy light fittings 100% of dedicated low energy light fittings
30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1Acompliant)
89% efficiency gas condensing boiler (Sedbuk2009)
Programmer/room stat/TRV’s Programmer/room stat/TRV’sDelayed start thermostat Delayed start thermostat
Code Level 3: Energy specificationAir Source Heat Pump
Part L1A 2006 + 25% Part L1A 2010 (FEE = 62.74)
250L store 250L store
Floor u-value 0.19. (80mm Kingspan TF 70) Floor u-value 0.19. (80mm Kingspan TF 70)
Wall u-value 0.3. (Building regulations compliance).
Wall u-value 0.3. (Building regulations compliance).
Roof u-value 0.16 (250mm mineral wool between and over (thermal conductivity 0 040))
Roof u-value 0.16 (250mm mineral wool between and over (thermal conductivity 0 040))and over (thermal conductivity 0.040)). and over (thermal conductivity 0.040)).
Window u-value 1.8 Window u-value 1.8
Door u-value 3.0 Door u-value 3.0
Air permeability rate – 8 Air permeability rate – 8 (tested dwellings to achieve 6 or lower).
30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A li ) 100% of dedicated low energy light fittingsL1A compliant) 100% of dedicated low energy light fittings
Time and temperature zone control Time and temperature zone control
Code Level 3: Energy specificationFabric and Solar Thermal
Part L1A 2006 + 25% Part L1A 2010 (FEE = 53.28)
3.34 sq/m Kingspan Marvel 1808 (SE/SW) 1.67 sq/m Kingspan Marvel 1808 (SE/SW)
250L Kingspan solar store 250L Kingspan solar store
Floor u-value 0 12 (150mm Kingspan TF 70) Floor u-value 0 16 (100mm Kingspan TF 70)Floor u-value 0.12. (150mm Kingspan TF 70) Floor u-value 0.16. (100mm Kingspan TF 70)
Wall u-value 0.25. (100mm cavity full filled with Dritherm 32. Inner block to be Celcon standard or similar (thermal conductivity 0.19)).
Wall u-value 0.25. (100mm cavity full filled with Dritherm 32. Inner block to be Celcon standard or similar (thermal conductivity 0.19)).
Roof u-value 0.11 (400mm mineral wool between and over (thermal conductivity 0.040)).
Roof u-value 0.11 (400mm mineral wool between and over (thermal conductivity 0.040)).
Window u-value 1.6 Window u-value 1.6
Door u-value 1.0 Door u-value 1.2
Air permeability rate – 5 Air permeability rate – 7 (tested dwellings to achieve 5 or lower).
30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part 100% of dedicated low energy light fittingsgy g g (L1A compliant) 100% of dedicated low energy light fittings
91% efficiency gas condensing boiler (Sedbuk2005)
89% efficiency gas condensing boiler (Sedbuk2009)
Time and temperature zone control Programmer/room stat/TRV’sDelayed start thermostat
Weather compensator Weather compensator
HEALTH & SAFETY UPDATE
INSTALLATION OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV) SYSTEMS
ALEX WINKLERALEX WINKLERHEALTH & SAFETY PRINCIPAL CONSULTANT
THE MAJORITY OF ALL SAFETY ISSUES ARISE FROM THE 6 P’s
• Planning• Preparation• Programming• PreventPrevent• Poor• Performance• Performance
WHY IS IT PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT AT THE MOMENT ?
• There is a current HSE Initiative in place:
“Installation of Solar Capture Equipment in Domestic Premises”
• Part of the Construction Division Plan of Work for the• Part of the Construction Division Plan of Work for the work year 2011 - 2012
KEY AREAS THAT THE HSE INSPECTORS WILL BE CHECKING ON SITE• A survey prior to work starting to allow the installation
to be planned (must cover Work at Height and Asbestos)
• Appropriate lifting equipment• Suitable work platform (scaffold / proprietary system)Suitable work platform (scaffold / proprietary system)• Precaution for working in loft spaces, e.g. for open
joistsjoists• Installations to BS7671 & IEE Wiring Regulations
MCS ! ( )• MCS ! (no)
COMMERCIAL INSTALLATIONS
• The same basic rules apply, whether Retro-fit or new-build
• There are some extra issues:o Fragile roof ! What is fragile ?o Roof Lights ! What is fragile ?o Maintenance and future access provisions
COMMERCIAL INSTALLATION(sample of lifting only)
INSTALLER COMPETENCE
• Where are all the installers coming from ?o This will be a very popular questiono A key area for Clients and Principal Contractorso Large influx of labour into this sectoro Quality of trainingo What is competence ?
WORK AT HEIGHT
• Scaffolding / edge protection to stop people and materials falling
• The use of proprietary access systems• Pitch of the roof• Work in loft spaces• Keep people away from the area below the roof work• Keep people away from the area below the roof work• Fragile roofs (cement sheet, sky lights)
PROPRIETARY SYSTEM(with additional centre section)
MANUAL HANDLING
• Prevent unnecessary lifting and carrying• Use mechanical aids and ensure they are well
maintained• Make sure workers are trained to use the equipmentq p• Ensure any scaffold is designed for the hoist that is
usedused
ELECTRICAL
• Installations should follow the requirements of BS 7671 & IEE Wiring Regulations
• Where work is sub-contracted to non-electrical trades (such as roofers), they need to be aware of the risks
• Installers of Solar PV should be competent to work under the Microgeneration Certification Scheme (MCS)
ASBESTOS
• Asbestos cement roof sheets (flat or profiled)• Fragility is the biggest danger• All asbestos materials should be treated with care• Landlords management of asbestos duties (register)Landlords management of asbestos duties (register)• Strict legal requirements for dealing with asbestos
THE MAJORITY OF ALL SAFETY ISSUES ARISE FROM THE 6 P’s
PlanningPreparationProgrammingPreventPreventPoor PerformancePerformance
PV IS NO DIFFERENT
Questions?Questions?
Social Housing Group Meeting g p g
Coffee
© Best Companies Limited
Richard DonnellRichard DonnellResearch Director, Hometrack
© Best Companies Limited
Prospects for the housing marketTrends in rental market and funding delivery post 2015Trends in rental market and funding delivery post 2015
NHBC Social Housing GroupRichard Donnell - Director of Research – 10 September 2011
Headline housing market trends
51
© Hometrack 2011December 1, 2011
51
© Hometrack 2011
Supply / demand balance leads prices by 3 monthsSupply / demand balance leads prices by 3 months
10 40%Balance between supply and demand
4
6
8
ance
20%25%30%35%
on
Balance between supply and demandHouse price inflation (% yoy, lagged 3 mths)
0
2
4
eman
d ba
la
5%10%15%20%
pric
e in
flatio
6
-4
-2
Sup
ply/
de
-10%-5%0%5%
Hou
se p
-10
-8
-6
2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 0 0
-25%-20%-15%
Oct
-02
Apr
-03
Oct
-03
Apr
-04
Oct
-04
Apr
-05
Oct
-05
Apr
-06
Oct
-06
Apr
-07
Oct
-07
Apr
-08
Oct
-08
Apr
-09
Oct
-09
Apr
-10
Oct
-10
Apr
-11
Oct
-11
52
© Hometrack 2011
Source: Hometrack Monthly House Price Survey and DCLG
Sales periods and relative pricingSales periods and relative pricing
Time on % asking price
14
16SouthMidlands 98
100SouthMidlandsNorth
Time on market
% asking price achieved
10
12North
94
96
North
4
6
8
90
92
0
2
4
86
88
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
53
© Hometrack 2011
Source: Hometrack – monthly House Price Survey
Trends in private rents How risky are affordable rents ?
54
© Hometrack 2011December 1, 2011 © Hometrack 2011
54
The private rented sector and HARPsThe private rented sector and HARPs
> Lots of hype about rental levels and rental growth
> Major differentials in trends between London and rest of Britain
> Different trends and risk profile by market segment and location
> Outlook for headline rental growth in medium term is weak> Outlook for headline rental growth in medium term is weak
> Risk profile of affordable rent depends upon where you choose to do your re-lets
55
© Hometrack 2011
Rental growth - 2 bed property (% year on year)Rental growth 2 bed property (% year on year)
20%
M j i i S i l /
10%
15%Major expansion in
supply pushes rents down c9%
over 2008-9
Static supply/strong demand supports
rental growth
0%
5%
ear o
n ye
ar
-5%
0%
% y
e
LondonGB ex London
-15%
-10%
2 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 2 3
GB ex. LondonAve last 18 monthsAve last 18 months
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2009
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2010
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2011
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
56
© Hometrack 2011
Source: Hometrack
Private rent as % household disposable incomePrivate rent as % household disposable income
50%
35%
40%
45%
d in
com
e
2008
2011
25%
30%
35%
e ho
useh
old
15%
20%
25%
% d
ispo
sabl
5%
10%
Ren
t as
%
0%N East Y&H N West E Mids W Mids East S East London S West Wales Scotland
57
© Hometrack 2011
Source: Hometrack
Rental market highly segmented – by rental valueRental market highly segmented by rental value
London £pcm Rest GB £pcm
Corporate sector >£2000
80%
90%
100%
£750-£1000
>£1000
80%
90%
100%
Lifestyle renters£1500-£2000
60%
70%
80%
60%
70%
80%
Core rental market£1000-£150040%
50%
60%£500-£750
40%
50%
60%
Median rent Median rent
£1500
20%
30%
20%
30%Affordable rentAffordable rent
LHA/Students <£1000
0%
10%<£500
0%
10%
58
© Hometrack 2011
Source: Hometrack
Rents in GB (ex London) – upper and lower quartileRents in GB (ex London) upper and lower quartile
£700
£600
£650
rope
rty
£550
£600
cm -
2 be
d pr
o
£500
Ave
rage
£pc
£400
£450
2 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 2
A
Lower quartile
Upper quartile
2007
Q1
2007
Q2
2007
Q3
2007
Q4
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2009
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2010
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2011
Q1
2011
Q2
59
© Hometrack 2011
Source: Hometrack
Rents in London – upper and lower quartileRents in London upper and lower quartile
£2,250
£1,750
£2,000
rope
rty
£1 250
£1,500
cm -
2 be
d pr
o
£1,000
£1,250
Ave
rage
£pc
£500
£750
2 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 2 3
A
Lower quartile
Upper quartile
2007
Q1
2007
Q2
2007
Q3
2007
Q4
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2009
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2010
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2011
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
60
© Hometrack 2011
Source: Hometrack
Rental market highly segmented - geographicallyRental market highly segmented geographically
> Mature - Activity across all property sizes so lower risk on void periods and accurate assessment of rents
> Active - Good liquidity for certain property sizes but higher risk over voids and rental levels for less liquid propertyand rental levels for less liquid property sizes
> Inactive - Low liquidity across the market q yand risk of voids and challenge accurately setting rents
61
© Hometrack 2011
Source: Hometrack
Top 30 HARPs GN stock by rental market typeTop 30 HARPs GN stock by rental market type
90%
100%Mature Active
70%
80%
90%
k by
are
a
Mature Active
40%
50%
60%
need
s st
ock
10%
20%
30%
%
% g
ener
al
0%
10%
ing
Hill
Mos
aic
enes
is
adra
ntH
yde
Mer
cia
opol
itan
min
ion
outh
ern
Sut
ton
Ang
liaho
rizon
Peo
ple
Vic
inity
s Tr
ust
vere
ign
Acc
ent
Orb
it er
side
Gro
up
d H
eart
Wal
sall
nctu
ary
kefie
ldag
ship
C
harte
run
ities
omfo
rd
Gen
too
Not
t
Fam
ily M Ge
Lond
on &
Qu
Wes
t M
Met
roA
2Dom So
Affi
nity
S
Circ
le
Am
icus
hP
lace
s Fo
r P V
Gui
ness
Sov A
Riv
e
Hom
e
Mid
land W
San Wak Fla
New
CIn
com
m Bro G
62
© Hometrack 2011
Source: Hometrack
L ki b d ff d bl tLooking beyond affordable rent –generating capital to fund new delivery
63
© Hometrack 2011December 1, 2011
63
© Hometrack 2011
Buyers needed for near term housing supply pipelineBuyers needed for near term housing supply pipeline
Planned sites
> In England onlyIn England only
> 5,200 sites registered but not started
> 300 000 units> 300,000 units
> c. 3 years output
> c. 120,000 units affordable
> £15bn value
> £3.5bn grant @ £30k per unit
> Affordable rent = £1.8bn grant
> £43bn non-affordable stock
> Builders looking at setting up HARP> Builders looking at setting up HARP subsidiaries
64
© Hometrack 2011
Source: Hometrack using NHBC data
Leveraging sector OMV to generate capital for deliveryLeveraging sector OMV to generate capital for delivery
£450
£350
£400
£450
LA t kRight to Buy
£250
£300
ns
LA stock Requires discounts of 29% to 60%
£150
£200£bn
Sell vacant unitsPromote LCHO
£50
£100RP stockLA stock
RP stock
£0EUV-SH all stock OMV all stock RP value at
cost/valuation*RP debt and grant*
65
© Hometrack 2011
Source: Hometrack and * TSA Global Accounts
Estimated OMV for largest HARPsEstimated OMV for largest HARPs
£12
£8
£10
£bn
Conversion of 2.5% of GN stock pa to 60% OMV with repayment of debt delivers £1bn pa capital release pa from top 30 RPs
£6
mat
ed O
MV
£2
£4
Estim
£0
Qua
dran
te
Ang
liay
Sut
ton
ss T
rust
tting
Hill
anct
uary
Hyd
eom
inio
nG
enes
isve
reig
nop
olita
nP
eopl
eH
ome
Mos
aic
outh
ern
dy T
rust
Orb
itH
oriz
onve
rsid
eC
atal
yst
rom
ford
nd H
eart
Net
wor
kak
efie
ldM
oat
Rad
ian
Gen
too
Wes
sex
Cor
nwal
lla
gshi
p
Lond
on &
QC
ircle
Affi
nity
Gui
nnes
Not Sa
A2D
o GS
ovM
etro
Pla
ces
For
Fam
ily So
Pea
bod
Am
icus
H Riv C Br
Mid
lan N
Wa G
Firs
t WD
evon
& C F
66
© Hometrack 2011
Source: Hometrack using RSR March 2011 data on stock by LA
Challenges of capital releaseChallenges of capital release
> Mortgage products and availability - proper affordability tests Shared ownership
> How much propensity? - 20% social renters earn over £20k
> Nominations rights limit scope?
> Effective LCHO capital release needs the second tranche sale – how
60% residualc.2.75% coupon
RPI+ uplifts100% investor
to get LCHO working with no grant and with self funding
5% d it
> Growing appetite from external investors looking for RPI backed cashflows and long term HPI
35% mortgage on
5%+ depositcashflows and long term HPI
> Stakeholders boards and LAs will want to see 1 for 1 replacementg g
long leasehold> Expect counter-balance to emerge from LAs over tenancy strategies
and use of existing assets to funding new housing
67
© Hometrack 2011
SummarySummary
68
© Hometrack 2011December 1, 2011
68
© Hometrack 2011
SummarySummary
> House prices to drift lower over next 12 months
> Rental growth to moderate on increased affordability pressures
> Emerging debate over funding affordable housing – grant v other forms of subsidy
69
© Hometrack 2011
Hometrack6th Floor, The ChambersChelsea HarbourChelsea HarbourLondonSW10 0XF
70
© Hometrack 2011December 1, 2011
www.hometrack.co.uk
9 June 2011
LunchLunch
© Best Companies Limited
Shelagh GrantShelagh GrantChief Executive,The Housing Forum
© Best Companies Limited
Shelagh GrantShelagh GrantChief Executive, The Housing Forum
10th November 201110th November, 2011
FutureFit
• NHBC & The Housing FForum
• social housing group event
What we didWhat we found
Presentation title – edit in Header and footer
Basic PrinciplesBasic Principles
• Practical focus
• Not target driven• Not target driven
• What can we get forWhat can we get for the money?
• 102 homes - £1.2m
• The role of people• The role of people
TimescalesTimescales
WorksWorksWhat we did
• 22 archetypes• 3 packages• Energy hierarchy/SAP* improvementgy y p• 97 homes occupied
* The Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP)is the official procedure for assessing the energy efficiency of buildings
PeoplePeopleWhat we did
• Existing resources• Non-targeted groups• No incentives• Wider audience
FinanceFinanceWhat we didWhat we did
• FutureFit financial model• Actual costs (and actual savings)• Archetypes massed upArchetypes massed up• Allows for sensitivity testing
WorksWorksWhat we found…
• Issues with archetyping• SAP not up to the job
• Straightforward measures?• Social housing already aheadp j Soc a ous g a eady a ead
WorksWorksWhat we found…
• Need strong performance standards20
f
141618
lity
Average of Air pressure test result ‐
81012
perm
eabil test result
BEFORE
246A
ir
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122Archetpye
WorksWorksWhat we found…
• Higher costs
PeoplePeopleWhat we found…
• Low initial response rate: 4.8%• High drop out rate: 23%High drop out rate: 23% • Works in occupation possible• Resident Liaison Officer is key 40%
50%
60%
70%
sponses
L• Resident Liaison Officer is key• Knowledge gap
E t t0%
10%
20%
30%
1 2 3 4
% of res
L
M
• Engagement costs• Success in wider engagement
1 2 3 4
Level of disruption
FinanceFinanceWhat we found…What we found…
• Green Deal can work• Two archetypes broke even • Significant gap in fundingg g p g• Projected CO2 savings less• Still a carbon black holeStill a carbon black hole• Volume and refined works
PartnersPartners
Implications for the sectorp
2 September 2011 FutureFit Seminar: Report part one
The funding and carbon gapThe funding and carbon gapCost of retrofit for whole Affinity Sutton general needs stock
Package Net present cost of
Value of energy
Funding Gap
Total CO² reduction
Average net present cost
Cost of retrofit for whole Affinity Sutton general needs stock
investment in retrofit
packages*
savings / dwelling
Low £283m £156m £130m 18% £2.9 k
Medium £439m £218m £224m 23% £5 0 kMedium £439m £218m £224m 23% £5.0 k
High £959m £478m £487m 34% £10.8k
* i l d ti l d i t t* includes operational and maintenance costs
The funding and carbon gapThe funding and carbon gapPercentage of Carbon SavedPercentage of Carbon Saved
24% 10% 20% 26%
0% 80%
= Estimated savings in Affinity Sutton stock since 1990
= Low package adapted to meet Golden Rule
G i f G id= Greening of Grid
= BLACK HOLE
The funding and carbon gapThe funding and carbon gapPercentage of Carbon Saved
24% 18% 20% 18%
0% 80%
= Estimated savings in Affinity Sutton stock since 1990
= Low package not meeting Golden Rule
G i f G id= Greening of Grid
= BLACK HOLE
This is a dynamic systemThis is a dynamic system
Worse Better
Green Deal delivery costs Optimised packages
V l Sh E i f lValue Share Economies of scale
Comfort Take Trigger pointsComfort Take Trigger points
Cost of Capital ECO funding
92
Closing the gapClosing the gap…
The people issueThe people issue
Where to nowWhere to now...
ConsultationConsultation…
• Access to Eco
• Volume
• Application of the golden Rule
I ti• Incentives
• Complexity - landlord and tenantComplexity landlord and tenant
Next stepsNext steps…
• FutureFit Living
• Monitoring and final report
• Follow-up reports
C lt ti ???????????•Consultation???????????
“AFFORDABLE HOUSING : ALL FIT FORTHE FUTURE”THE FUTURE
Shelagh GrantChief Executive, The Housing Forum, g
10th November, 2011
The Housing Forum and the new agendag g
• Current ActivitiesCurrent Activities
• Asset Management in the Existing StockAsset Management in the Existing Stock
• At The Heart is Housing – Making Affordable Rent Happen• At The Heart is Housing – Making Affordable Rent Happen
• Innovation in Construction and Regulation• Innovation in Construction and Regulation
Ongoing Monthly Series – Skills Summitsg g y
• Asset Management in the Existing Stockg g
• ECO, The Green Deal and Energy Providers
• ECO, The Green Deal and Asset Management – The Housing Provider’s Perspective
• Innovation in Construction and Regulation
• Alignment between risk and investment : issues of quality• Alignment between risk and investment : issues of quality of asset register.
Top Issuesp
• Affordability – what do we get for our money?y g y
• Sustainability – through Demonstration
• Process Improvement – importance of strong performance standards and tackling market issuesperformance standards and tackling market issues
Demonstrable improvements and learningp g
• FutureFit – replicable, issues uncovered, public ‘buy-in’p , , p y
• Links to regeneration, uplift, end use : East LondonLinks to regeneration, uplift, end use : East London
• On-going challenges in housing constructionOn going challenges in housing construction
Both examples in own way convey current issues in housingp y y g
• Housing associations rent dilemma
• RPI increases hit ‘fuel poor’
• Return on investment beyond fabric firstReturn on investment beyond fabric first
• Appetite in building moved from regeneration to more secure smaller projectssecure smaller projects
On Affordable Homes...On Affordable Homes...
• Bidding oversubscribed and new entrants but 90% of the gprogramme will still be delivered by housing associations
• Market rent issues• Market rent issues
• “Bunching” of programme delivery and supply chain
• BUT... Subsidised housing still needs a subsidy
• Income needed for existing stock to fund improvements :• Income needed for existing stock to fund improvements : quality of asset registers
At the Heart is Housing “Making affordable rent happen”Making affordable rent happen
Th H i F W ki GThe Housing Forum Working Group chaired by board member John Cross, bpha
Conclusions:-Conclusions:
• Environment for delivery
• Funding – confidence or risk? Future investment issues
• A radical reshaping of housing associations to respond to the scale of change
• Longer term financial planning horizons compel changes in governance, viability and consumer service
• Building without grant –g gcommercially viable solutions with social values
• In-Betweeners – the revival of our estates with career couplesour estates with career couples – is this going to happen?
• How do you make your offer attractive?
Working with your local councilsg y• What are the
specifications andspecifications and standards in building going to be?
• Energy and Code standards
• The housing economy-92p of every £1 spent on construction stays in theconstruction stays in the UK
• Let’s not undo 15 years of good work!
The Housing ForumThe Housing Forum
Our Web Site:
The place for future events, information and comment is:and comment is:
www.housingforum.org.uk
Kevin O’ReillyKevin O Reilly
© Best Companies Limited
Social Housing Group Meeting
10th November 2011
Th kThank you
© Best Companies Limited