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Social Housing Group Meeting 10 th November 2011 © Best Companies Limited

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Page 1: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Social Housing Group Meeting

10th November 2011

© Best Companies Limited

Page 2: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Mehban Chowdery Regional Director NHBCMehban Chowdery, Regional Director NHBC

© Best Companies Limited

Page 3: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Steve EvansSteve EvansBuilding Control Manager, NHBC

© Best Companies Limited

Page 4: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Part L 2010 – Code 2010

Richard StockholmOperations ManagerOperations Manager

Page 5: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Transitional Arrangementsg

Developments eligible for compliance with Part L1A 2006 of Building Regulations will be able to register against the May 2009 version of the Codeagainst the May 2009 version of the Code INDEFINITELY.

All other developments will be automatically registered to November 2010 Technical Guidance.

Therefore there is a possibility that both SAP2005 & 2009 will be required for Code assessments.

Page 6: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Which Code Technical Guidance -May 2009 or Nov 2010?

Code Level 3 mandatory requirement for energy: May 2009 = 25% improvement over Part L1A2006 Nov 2010 = compliance with Part L1A 2010 Nov 2010 = compliance with Part L1A 2010

Isn’t that the same thing?

Changes to SAP methodology SAP 2005 and SAP 20092009

Part L1A 2010 compliance solution might not be the Csame as Part L1A 2006 Code Level 3

Page 7: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Ene 1: Dwelling Emission RateMandatory requirement for each Code level

Up to nine credits are awarded on a sliding scale. The scale is based on increments of 0 1 credits distributed equally between the benchmarks defined

up to 10 credits available increments of 0.1 credits, distributed equally between the benchmarks defined in this table.

Page 8: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Code level 3: M 2009May 2009

Typical dwelling:

59.15%

Page 9: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Code level 3: N 2010Nov 2010

Typical dwelling:

(Part L1A 2010 regs) ( g )

51.25%

5.75% required to

meet CSH 3

- options?

Page 10: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Ene 3: Energy Display Devices

R l I t l Li hti dit (d t h i P tReplaces Internal Lighting credits (due to change in Part L1A 2010 requirements). Two credits available:

1 credit - where current electricity OR primary heating fuel consumption data are displayed to occupants2 credits - where current electricity AND primary heating fuel consumption data are displayed to occupants

Correctly specified energy display device includes:-S lf h i fi d t th i i i Self charging sensor fixed to the incoming mains supply/supplies

Visual presentation of data (non numeric)Visual presentation of data (non numeric) Display of accurate account balance

Page 11: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Ene 2: Fabric Energy EfficiencyMandatory requirement for each Code level

Credits are awarded on a sliding scale. The scale is based on increments of 0 1 credits distributed equally between the benchmarks defined in this table

up to 9 credits available 0.1 credits, distributed equally between the benchmarks defined in this table.

Page 12: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

What Effects Fabric Energy Efficiency Standards?

Page 13: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

What is Thermal Bridging?

Page 14: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Thermal Bridging in Part L

D f lt t 0 15• Default to 0.15• Calculate using psi values from approved thermal

bridging details from and ACD Body• Calculate using psi value calculations not approved by

ACD body, and apply +0.02 W/mK or 25% to the calculated y-value

Page 15: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

List Of Accredited Construction Details

Page 16: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

What does an Accredited detail look like?

Page 17: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Alternative Sources for Psi Values• Aircrete Products Association• Besblock• Besblock• Space 4 • Eco-Slab • Prestoplan

Or bespoke psi value for the junction has been calculatedOr bespoke psi value for the junction has been calculated which must be supported with evidence.

Page 18: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

What is a Psi ψ Value?

Page 19: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Thermal Bridging

Page 20: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Calculated Thermal Bridging Values

Diff i l l t d l i ACD d t ilDifference in calculated y-value using ACD details• End terrace y-value 0.096• Mid terrace y-value 0.118• Detached y-value 0.074 (0.011)y ( )• Ground Floor Corner y-value 0.116

Page 21: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

TrendsTrends

Page 22: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

TrendsTrends

Page 23: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing
Page 24: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing
Page 25: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing
Page 26: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing
Page 27: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

What about windows?

L l b tt ?• Lower u-values better?• Solar Gain• G Factor• Check effect of changing windowsg g

Page 28: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Part L 2010 – Achieving CompliancePart L 2010 Achieving Compliance

Page 29: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Code Level 3: Energy specification

Part L1A 2006 + 25% Part L1A 2010 (FEE = 49.07)

Fabric and MVHR

Greenwood HRV2 Greenwood HRV2

250L store 250L store

Floor u-value 0.12. (150mm Kingspan TF 70) Floor u-value 0.12. (150mm Kingspan TF 70)

Wall u-value 0.18. (100mm cavity with XtrathermCavitytherm)

Wall u-value 0.18. (100mm cavity with XtrathermCavitytherm)

Roof u-value 0 11 (400mm mineral wool between Roof u-value 0 11 (400mm mineral wool betweenRoof u value 0.11 (400mm mineral wool between and over (thermal conductivity 0.040)).

Roof u value 0.11 (400mm mineral wool between and over (thermal conductivity 0.040)).

Window u-value 1.5 Window u-value 1.6

Door u-value 1.0 Door u-value 1.2

Air permeability rate – 4.5 Air permeability rate – 7 (tested dwellings to achieve 5 or lower).

30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1Acompliant) 100% of dedicated low energy light fittings

91% efficiency gas condensing boiler (Sedbuk2005)

89% efficiency gas condensing boiler (Sedbuk2009)

Time and temperature zone control Programmer/room stat/TRV’s

Weather compensator Weather compensatorWeather compensator Weather compensator

Page 30: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Code Level 3: Energy specificationPV Panels

Part L1A 2006 + 25% Part L1A 2010 (FEE = 55.89)

0.75 kWp (SE/SW) 0.5 kWp (SE/SW) 250L store 250L store

Floor u-value 0.12. (150mm Kingspan TF 70) Floor u-value 0.19. (80mm Kingspan TF 70)

Wall u-value 0.25. (100mm cavity full filled with Dritherm 32. Inner block to be Celcon standard or similar (thermal conductivity 0.19)).

Wall u-value 0.25. (100mm cavity full filled with Dritherm 32. Inner block to be Celcon standard or similar (thermal conductivity 0.19)).

Roof u-value 0.11 (400mm mineral wool between and over (thermal conductivity 0.040)).

Roof u-value 0.11 (400mm mineral wool between and over (thermal conductivity 0.040)).

Window u-value 1.6 Window u-value 1.7Door u value 1 57 Door u value 1 57Door u-value 1.57 Door u-value 1.57

Air permeability rate – 5 Air permeability rate – 7 (tested dwellings to achieve 5 or lower).

100% of dedicated low energy light fittings 100% of dedicated low energy light fittings100% of dedicated low energy light fittings 100% of dedicated low energy light fittings

30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1Acompliant)

89% efficiency gas condensing boiler (Sedbuk2009)

Programmer/room stat/TRV’s Programmer/room stat/TRV’sDelayed start thermostat Delayed start thermostat

Page 31: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Code Level 3: Energy specificationAir Source Heat Pump

Part L1A 2006 + 25% Part L1A 2010 (FEE = 62.74)

250L store 250L store

Floor u-value 0.19. (80mm Kingspan TF 70) Floor u-value 0.19. (80mm Kingspan TF 70)

Wall u-value 0.3. (Building regulations compliance).

Wall u-value 0.3. (Building regulations compliance).

Roof u-value 0.16 (250mm mineral wool between and over (thermal conductivity 0 040))

Roof u-value 0.16 (250mm mineral wool between and over (thermal conductivity 0 040))and over (thermal conductivity 0.040)). and over (thermal conductivity 0.040)).

Window u-value 1.8 Window u-value 1.8

Door u-value 3.0 Door u-value 3.0

Air permeability rate – 8 Air permeability rate – 8 (tested dwellings to achieve 6 or lower).

30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A li ) 100% of dedicated low energy light fittingsL1A compliant) 100% of dedicated low energy light fittings

Time and temperature zone control Time and temperature zone control

Page 32: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Code Level 3: Energy specificationFabric and Solar Thermal

Part L1A 2006 + 25% Part L1A 2010 (FEE = 53.28)

3.34 sq/m Kingspan Marvel 1808 (SE/SW) 1.67 sq/m Kingspan Marvel 1808 (SE/SW)

250L Kingspan solar store 250L Kingspan solar store

Floor u-value 0 12 (150mm Kingspan TF 70) Floor u-value 0 16 (100mm Kingspan TF 70)Floor u-value 0.12. (150mm Kingspan TF 70) Floor u-value 0.16. (100mm Kingspan TF 70)

Wall u-value 0.25. (100mm cavity full filled with Dritherm 32. Inner block to be Celcon standard or similar (thermal conductivity 0.19)).

Wall u-value 0.25. (100mm cavity full filled with Dritherm 32. Inner block to be Celcon standard or similar (thermal conductivity 0.19)).

Roof u-value 0.11 (400mm mineral wool between and over (thermal conductivity 0.040)).

Roof u-value 0.11 (400mm mineral wool between and over (thermal conductivity 0.040)).

Window u-value 1.6 Window u-value 1.6

Door u-value 1.0 Door u-value 1.2

Air permeability rate – 5 Air permeability rate – 7 (tested dwellings to achieve 5 or lower).

30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part 100% of dedicated low energy light fittingsgy g g (L1A compliant) 100% of dedicated low energy light fittings

91% efficiency gas condensing boiler (Sedbuk2005)

89% efficiency gas condensing boiler (Sedbuk2009)

Time and temperature zone control Programmer/room stat/TRV’sDelayed start thermostat

Weather compensator Weather compensator

Page 33: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing
Page 34: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

HEALTH & SAFETY UPDATE

INSTALLATION OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV) SYSTEMS

ALEX WINKLERALEX WINKLERHEALTH & SAFETY PRINCIPAL CONSULTANT

Page 35: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

THE MAJORITY OF ALL SAFETY ISSUES ARISE FROM THE 6 P’s

• Planning• Preparation• Programming• PreventPrevent• Poor• Performance• Performance

Page 36: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

WHY IS IT PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT AT THE MOMENT ?

• There is a current HSE Initiative in place:

“Installation of Solar Capture Equipment in Domestic Premises”

• Part of the Construction Division Plan of Work for the• Part of the Construction Division Plan of Work for the work year 2011 - 2012

Page 37: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

KEY AREAS THAT THE HSE INSPECTORS WILL BE CHECKING ON SITE• A survey prior to work starting to allow the installation

to be planned (must cover Work at Height and Asbestos)

• Appropriate lifting equipment• Suitable work platform (scaffold / proprietary system)Suitable work platform (scaffold / proprietary system)• Precaution for working in loft spaces, e.g. for open

joistsjoists• Installations to BS7671 & IEE Wiring Regulations

MCS ! ( )• MCS ! (no)

Page 38: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

COMMERCIAL INSTALLATIONS

• The same basic rules apply, whether Retro-fit or new-build

• There are some extra issues:o Fragile roof ! What is fragile ?o Roof Lights ! What is fragile ?o Maintenance and future access provisions

Page 39: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

COMMERCIAL INSTALLATION(sample of lifting only)

Page 40: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

INSTALLER COMPETENCE

• Where are all the installers coming from ?o This will be a very popular questiono A key area for Clients and Principal Contractorso Large influx of labour into this sectoro Quality of trainingo What is competence ?

Page 41: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

WORK AT HEIGHT

• Scaffolding / edge protection to stop people and materials falling

• The use of proprietary access systems• Pitch of the roof• Work in loft spaces• Keep people away from the area below the roof work• Keep people away from the area below the roof work• Fragile roofs (cement sheet, sky lights)

Page 42: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

PROPRIETARY SYSTEM(with additional centre section)

Page 43: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

MANUAL HANDLING

• Prevent unnecessary lifting and carrying• Use mechanical aids and ensure they are well

maintained• Make sure workers are trained to use the equipmentq p• Ensure any scaffold is designed for the hoist that is

usedused

Page 44: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

ELECTRICAL

• Installations should follow the requirements of BS 7671 & IEE Wiring Regulations

• Where work is sub-contracted to non-electrical trades (such as roofers), they need to be aware of the risks

• Installers of Solar PV should be competent to work under the Microgeneration Certification Scheme (MCS)

Page 45: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

ASBESTOS

• Asbestos cement roof sheets (flat or profiled)• Fragility is the biggest danger• All asbestos materials should be treated with care• Landlords management of asbestos duties (register)Landlords management of asbestos duties (register)• Strict legal requirements for dealing with asbestos

Page 46: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

THE MAJORITY OF ALL SAFETY ISSUES ARISE FROM THE 6 P’s

PlanningPreparationProgrammingPreventPreventPoor PerformancePerformance

Page 47: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

PV IS NO DIFFERENT

Questions?Questions?

Page 48: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Social Housing Group Meeting g p g

Coffee

© Best Companies Limited

Page 49: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Richard DonnellRichard DonnellResearch Director, Hometrack

© Best Companies Limited

Page 50: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Prospects for the housing marketTrends in rental market and funding delivery post 2015Trends in rental market and funding delivery post 2015

NHBC Social Housing GroupRichard Donnell - Director of Research – 10 September 2011

Page 51: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Headline housing market trends

51

© Hometrack 2011December 1, 2011

51

© Hometrack 2011

Page 52: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Supply / demand balance leads prices by 3 monthsSupply / demand balance leads prices by 3 months

10 40%Balance between supply and demand

4

6

8

ance

20%25%30%35%

on

Balance between supply and demandHouse price inflation (% yoy, lagged 3 mths)

0

2

4

eman

d ba

la

5%10%15%20%

pric

e in

flatio

6

-4

-2

Sup

ply/

de

-10%-5%0%5%

Hou

se p

-10

-8

-6

2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 0 0

-25%-20%-15%

Oct

-02

Apr

-03

Oct

-03

Apr

-04

Oct

-04

Apr

-05

Oct

-05

Apr

-06

Oct

-06

Apr

-07

Oct

-07

Apr

-08

Oct

-08

Apr

-09

Oct

-09

Apr

-10

Oct

-10

Apr

-11

Oct

-11

52

© Hometrack 2011

Source: Hometrack Monthly House Price Survey and DCLG

Page 53: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Sales periods and relative pricingSales periods and relative pricing

Time on % asking price

14

16SouthMidlands 98

100SouthMidlandsNorth

Time on market

% asking price achieved

10

12North

94

96

North

4

6

8

90

92

0

2

4

86

88

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

53

© Hometrack 2011

Source: Hometrack – monthly House Price Survey

Page 54: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Trends in private rents How risky are affordable rents ?

54

© Hometrack 2011December 1, 2011 © Hometrack 2011

54

Page 55: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

The private rented sector and HARPsThe private rented sector and HARPs

> Lots of hype about rental levels and rental growth

> Major differentials in trends between London and rest of Britain

> Different trends and risk profile by market segment and location

> Outlook for headline rental growth in medium term is weak> Outlook for headline rental growth in medium term is weak

> Risk profile of affordable rent depends upon where you choose to do your re-lets

55

© Hometrack 2011

Page 56: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Rental growth - 2 bed property (% year on year)Rental growth 2 bed property (% year on year)

20%

M j i i S i l /

10%

15%Major expansion in

supply pushes rents down c9%

over 2008-9

Static supply/strong demand supports

rental growth

0%

5%

ear o

n ye

ar

-5%

0%

% y

e

LondonGB ex London

-15%

-10%

2 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 2 3

GB ex. LondonAve last 18 monthsAve last 18 months

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

2010

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2011

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

56

© Hometrack 2011

Source: Hometrack

Page 57: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Private rent as % household disposable incomePrivate rent as % household disposable income

50%

35%

40%

45%

d in

com

e

2008

2011

25%

30%

35%

e ho

useh

old

15%

20%

25%

% d

ispo

sabl

5%

10%

Ren

t as

%

0%N East Y&H N West E Mids W Mids East S East London S West Wales Scotland

57

© Hometrack 2011

Source: Hometrack

Page 58: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Rental market highly segmented – by rental valueRental market highly segmented by rental value

London £pcm Rest GB £pcm

Corporate sector >£2000

80%

90%

100%

£750-£1000

>£1000

80%

90%

100%

Lifestyle renters£1500-£2000

60%

70%

80%

60%

70%

80%

Core rental market£1000-£150040%

50%

60%£500-£750

40%

50%

60%

Median rent Median rent

£1500

20%

30%

20%

30%Affordable rentAffordable rent

LHA/Students <£1000

0%

10%<£500

0%

10%

58

© Hometrack 2011

Source: Hometrack

Page 59: NHBC Social Housing Group November 2011 - nhbc.co.uk45158,e… · 30% of dedicated low energy light fittings (Part L1A ... (scaffold / proprietary system) ... NHBC Social Housing

Rents in GB (ex London) – upper and lower quartileRents in GB (ex London) upper and lower quartile

£700

£600

£650

rope

rty

£550

£600

cm -

2 be

d pr

o

£500

Ave

rage

£pc

£400

£450

2 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 2

A

Lower quartile

Upper quartile

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

2010

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2011

Q1

2011

Q2

59

© Hometrack 2011

Source: Hometrack

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Rents in London – upper and lower quartileRents in London upper and lower quartile

£2,250

£1,750

£2,000

rope

rty

£1 250

£1,500

cm -

2 be

d pr

o

£1,000

£1,250

Ave

rage

£pc

£500

£750

2 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 2 3

A

Lower quartile

Upper quartile

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

2010

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2011

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

60

© Hometrack 2011

Source: Hometrack

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Rental market highly segmented - geographicallyRental market highly segmented geographically

> Mature - Activity across all property sizes so lower risk on void periods and accurate assessment of rents

> Active - Good liquidity for certain property sizes but higher risk over voids and rental levels for less liquid propertyand rental levels for less liquid property sizes

> Inactive - Low liquidity across the market q yand risk of voids and challenge accurately setting rents

61

© Hometrack 2011

Source: Hometrack

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Top 30 HARPs GN stock by rental market typeTop 30 HARPs GN stock by rental market type

90%

100%Mature Active

70%

80%

90%

k by

are

a

Mature Active

40%

50%

60%

need

s st

ock

10%

20%

30%

%

% g

ener

al

0%

10%

ing

Hill

Mos

aic

enes

is

adra

ntH

yde

Mer

cia

opol

itan

min

ion

outh

ern

Sut

ton

Ang

liaho

rizon

Peo

ple

Vic

inity

s Tr

ust

vere

ign

Acc

ent

Orb

it er

side

Gro

up

d H

eart

Wal

sall

nctu

ary

kefie

ldag

ship

C

harte

run

ities

omfo

rd

Gen

too

Not

t

Fam

ily M Ge

Lond

on &

Qu

Wes

t M

Met

roA

2Dom So

Affi

nity

S

Circ

le

Am

icus

hP

lace

s Fo

r P V

Gui

ness

Sov A

Riv

e

Hom

e

Mid

land W

San Wak Fla

New

CIn

com

m Bro G

62

© Hometrack 2011

Source: Hometrack

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L ki b d ff d bl tLooking beyond affordable rent –generating capital to fund new delivery

63

© Hometrack 2011December 1, 2011

63

© Hometrack 2011

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Buyers needed for near term housing supply pipelineBuyers needed for near term housing supply pipeline

Planned sites

> In England onlyIn England only

> 5,200 sites registered but not started

> 300 000 units> 300,000 units

> c. 3 years output

> c. 120,000 units affordable

> £15bn value

> £3.5bn grant @ £30k per unit

> Affordable rent = £1.8bn grant

> £43bn non-affordable stock

> Builders looking at setting up HARP> Builders looking at setting up HARP subsidiaries

64

© Hometrack 2011

Source: Hometrack using NHBC data

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Leveraging sector OMV to generate capital for deliveryLeveraging sector OMV to generate capital for delivery

£450

£350

£400

£450

LA t kRight to Buy

£250

£300

ns

LA stock Requires discounts of 29% to 60%

£150

£200£bn

Sell vacant unitsPromote LCHO

£50

£100RP stockLA stock

RP stock

£0EUV-SH all stock OMV all stock RP value at

cost/valuation*RP debt and grant*

65

© Hometrack 2011

Source: Hometrack and * TSA Global Accounts

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Estimated OMV for largest HARPsEstimated OMV for largest HARPs

£12

£8

£10

£bn

Conversion of 2.5% of GN stock pa to 60% OMV with repayment of debt delivers £1bn pa capital release pa from top 30 RPs

£6

mat

ed O

MV

£2

£4

Estim

£0

Qua

dran

te

Ang

liay

Sut

ton

ss T

rust

tting

Hill

anct

uary

Hyd

eom

inio

nG

enes

isve

reig

nop

olita

nP

eopl

eH

ome

Mos

aic

outh

ern

dy T

rust

Orb

itH

oriz

onve

rsid

eC

atal

yst

rom

ford

nd H

eart

Net

wor

kak

efie

ldM

oat

Rad

ian

Gen

too

Wes

sex

Cor

nwal

lla

gshi

p

Lond

on &

QC

ircle

Affi

nity

Gui

nnes

Not Sa

A2D

o GS

ovM

etro

Pla

ces

For

Fam

ily So

Pea

bod

Am

icus

H Riv C Br

Mid

lan N

Wa G

Firs

t WD

evon

& C F

66

© Hometrack 2011

Source: Hometrack using RSR March 2011 data on stock by LA

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Challenges of capital releaseChallenges of capital release

> Mortgage products and availability - proper affordability tests Shared ownership

> How much propensity? - 20% social renters earn over £20k

> Nominations rights limit scope?

> Effective LCHO capital release needs the second tranche sale – how

60% residualc.2.75% coupon

RPI+ uplifts100% investor

to get LCHO working with no grant and with self funding

5% d it

> Growing appetite from external investors looking for RPI backed cashflows and long term HPI

35% mortgage on

5%+ depositcashflows and long term HPI

> Stakeholders boards and LAs will want to see 1 for 1 replacementg g

long leasehold> Expect counter-balance to emerge from LAs over tenancy strategies

and use of existing assets to funding new housing

67

© Hometrack 2011

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SummarySummary

68

© Hometrack 2011December 1, 2011

68

© Hometrack 2011

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SummarySummary

> House prices to drift lower over next 12 months

> Rental growth to moderate on increased affordability pressures

> Emerging debate over funding affordable housing – grant v other forms of subsidy

69

© Hometrack 2011

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Hometrack6th Floor, The ChambersChelsea HarbourChelsea HarbourLondonSW10 0XF

[email protected]

70

© Hometrack 2011December 1, 2011

www.hometrack.co.uk

9 June 2011

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LunchLunch

© Best Companies Limited

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Shelagh GrantShelagh GrantChief Executive,The Housing Forum

© Best Companies Limited

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Shelagh GrantShelagh GrantChief Executive, The Housing Forum

10th November 201110th November, 2011

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FutureFit

• NHBC & The Housing FForum

• social housing group event

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What we didWhat we found

Presentation title – edit in Header and footer

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Basic PrinciplesBasic Principles

• Practical focus

• Not target driven• Not target driven

• What can we get forWhat can we get for the money?

• 102 homes - £1.2m

• The role of people• The role of people

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TimescalesTimescales

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WorksWorksWhat we did

• 22 archetypes• 3 packages• Energy hierarchy/SAP* improvementgy y p• 97 homes occupied

* The Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP)is the official procedure for assessing the energy efficiency of buildings

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PeoplePeopleWhat we did

• Existing resources• Non-targeted groups• No incentives• Wider audience

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FinanceFinanceWhat we didWhat we did

• FutureFit financial model• Actual costs (and actual savings)• Archetypes massed upArchetypes massed up• Allows for sensitivity testing

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WorksWorksWhat we found…

• Issues with archetyping• SAP not up to the job

• Straightforward measures?• Social housing already aheadp j Soc a ous g a eady a ead

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WorksWorksWhat we found…

• Need strong performance standards20

f

141618

lity

Average of Air pressure test result ‐

81012

perm

eabil test result 

BEFORE

246A

ir 

0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122Archetpye

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WorksWorksWhat we found…

• Higher costs

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PeoplePeopleWhat we found…

• Low initial response rate: 4.8%• High drop out rate: 23%High drop out rate: 23% • Works in occupation possible• Resident Liaison Officer is key 40%

50%

60%

70%

sponses

L• Resident Liaison Officer is key• Knowledge gap

E t t0%

10%

20%

30%

1 2 3 4

% of res

L

M

• Engagement costs• Success in wider engagement

1 2 3 4

Level of disruption 

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FinanceFinanceWhat we found…What we found…

• Green Deal can work• Two archetypes broke even • Significant gap in fundingg g p g• Projected CO2 savings less• Still a carbon black holeStill a carbon black hole• Volume and refined works

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PartnersPartners

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Implications for the sectorp

2 September 2011 FutureFit Seminar: Report part one

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The funding and carbon gapThe funding and carbon gapCost of retrofit for whole Affinity Sutton general needs stock

Package Net present cost of

Value of energy

Funding Gap

Total CO² reduction

Average net present cost

Cost of retrofit for whole Affinity Sutton general needs stock

investment in retrofit

packages*

savings / dwelling

Low £283m £156m £130m 18% £2.9 k

Medium £439m £218m £224m 23% £5 0 kMedium £439m £218m £224m 23% £5.0 k

High £959m £478m £487m 34% £10.8k

* i l d ti l d i t t* includes operational and maintenance costs

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The funding and carbon gapThe funding and carbon gapPercentage of Carbon SavedPercentage of Carbon Saved

24% 10% 20% 26%

0% 80%

= Estimated savings in Affinity Sutton stock since 1990

= Low package adapted to meet Golden Rule

G i f G id= Greening of Grid

= BLACK HOLE

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The funding and carbon gapThe funding and carbon gapPercentage of Carbon Saved

24% 18% 20% 18%

0% 80%

= Estimated savings in Affinity Sutton stock since 1990

= Low package not meeting Golden Rule

G i f G id= Greening of Grid

= BLACK HOLE

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This is a dynamic systemThis is a dynamic system

Worse Better

Green Deal delivery costs Optimised packages

V l Sh E i f lValue Share Economies of scale

Comfort Take Trigger pointsComfort Take Trigger points

Cost of Capital ECO funding

92

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Closing the gapClosing the gap…

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The people issueThe people issue

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Where to nowWhere to now...

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ConsultationConsultation…

• Access to Eco

• Volume

• Application of the golden Rule

I ti• Incentives

• Complexity - landlord and tenantComplexity landlord and tenant

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Next stepsNext steps…

• FutureFit Living

• Monitoring and final report

• Follow-up reports

C lt ti ???????????•Consultation???????????

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“AFFORDABLE HOUSING : ALL FIT FORTHE FUTURE”THE FUTURE

Shelagh GrantChief Executive, The Housing Forum, g

10th November, 2011

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The Housing Forum and the new agendag g

• Current ActivitiesCurrent Activities

• Asset Management in the Existing StockAsset Management in the Existing Stock

• At The Heart is Housing – Making Affordable Rent Happen• At The Heart is Housing – Making Affordable Rent Happen

• Innovation in Construction and Regulation• Innovation in Construction and Regulation

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Ongoing Monthly Series – Skills Summitsg g y

• Asset Management in the Existing Stockg g

• ECO, The Green Deal and Energy Providers

• ECO, The Green Deal and Asset Management – The Housing Provider’s Perspective

• Innovation in Construction and Regulation

• Alignment between risk and investment : issues of quality• Alignment between risk and investment : issues of quality of asset register.

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Top Issuesp

• Affordability – what do we get for our money?y g y

• Sustainability – through Demonstration

• Process Improvement – importance of strong performance standards and tackling market issuesperformance standards and tackling market issues

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Demonstrable improvements and learningp g

• FutureFit – replicable, issues uncovered, public ‘buy-in’p , , p y

• Links to regeneration, uplift, end use : East LondonLinks to regeneration, uplift, end use : East London

• On-going challenges in housing constructionOn going challenges in housing construction

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Both examples in own way convey current issues in housingp y y g

• Housing associations rent dilemma

• RPI increases hit ‘fuel poor’

• Return on investment beyond fabric firstReturn on investment beyond fabric first

• Appetite in building moved from regeneration to more secure smaller projectssecure smaller projects

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On Affordable Homes...On Affordable Homes...

• Bidding oversubscribed and new entrants but 90% of the gprogramme will still be delivered by housing associations

• Market rent issues• Market rent issues

• “Bunching” of programme delivery and supply chain

• BUT... Subsidised housing still needs a subsidy

• Income needed for existing stock to fund improvements :• Income needed for existing stock to fund improvements : quality of asset registers

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At the Heart is Housing “Making affordable rent happen”Making affordable rent happen

Th H i F W ki GThe Housing Forum Working Group chaired by board member John Cross, bpha

Conclusions:-Conclusions:

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• Environment for delivery

• Funding – confidence or risk? Future investment issues

• A radical reshaping of housing associations to respond to the scale of change

• Longer term financial planning horizons compel changes in governance, viability and consumer service

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• Building without grant –g gcommercially viable solutions with social values

• In-Betweeners – the revival of our estates with career couplesour estates with career couples – is this going to happen?

• How do you make your offer attractive?

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Working with your local councilsg y• What are the

specifications andspecifications and standards in building going to be?

• Energy and Code standards

• The housing economy-92p of every £1 spent on construction stays in theconstruction stays in the UK

• Let’s not undo 15 years of good work!

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The Housing ForumThe Housing Forum

Our Web Site:

The place for future events, information and comment is:and comment is:

www.housingforum.org.uk

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Kevin O’ReillyKevin O Reilly

© Best Companies Limited

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Social Housing Group Meeting

10th November 2011

Th kThank you

© Best Companies Limited