nguoi viet online q and a with carl thayer (bilingual)

8/8/2019 Nguoi Viet Online Q and A with Carl Thayer (bilingual)

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NguoiVietOnline

GS. Nguyn Mnh Hng v GS. Carl Thayer tr li trc tuync gi Ngi Vit OnlineThursday, January 13, 2011

ti: Vit Nam, trong tng quan Hoa K - Trung Quc

Gio SCarl Thayer (tri)v Gio SNguyn Mnh Hng

1. Hi:

Hai v l dn hc cao hiu rng. Vy, qu vc thtin on CSVN ni ring, v CS thgiini chung, s sp nhLin S khng v nu c th chng no? Xin cm n 2 v. ByHunh

Q:Being experts in your field, would both of you be able to predict when the Vietnamesecommunist regime in particular, and communist regimes in the rest of the world willcollapse as the Soviet did?

Gio sCarl Thayer tr li:

Rt t chuyn gia trong gii tnh bo hay ngai giao tin an c ssp thnh lnhca ch ngha x hi vo nm 1989 v stan r ca khi Lin Bang S Vit vo nm 1991.V vic chun an tnh hnh sp ti, ti cho rng iu tt nht l chng ta nghn nhngkch bn kh dc th xy ra. C nm ci gi l ch cng sn Trung Quc, Vietnam,Cuba, Bc Hn v Laos. Tt nht l khng nn tng qut ha nm ch c rt nhiu cbit ny. Ssp ch l mt kch bn c th, nhng xc xut khng cao. Theo kin


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Vit Nam chu nhiu thit thi va l ca mnh. Mt thc tkhng th thay i c lVit Nam nm ngay bin gii Trung Quc, v d vi scon 89 triu dn, Vit Nam cngch nh bng mt tnh c va ca Trung Hoa. Trung Quc hin l nn kinh t ln thhaitrn thgii v c don s vt qua nn kinh tM trong vi thp nin na. Vit Nam cng nhnhng nc Chu khc, khng th thot khi nh hng v tm kim sot caTrung Quc, m ch c th qun l mi quan h vi nc ny. iu ny c thc thchin mt cch song phng qua mi bang giao gia hai nc, hay a phng thng qua cct chc khu vc, v tgip mnh bng cch pht trin sc mnh qun sca Vit Nam.

Ti khng ng rng Vit Nam ang chu skim sot ca Trung Quc. ng nhin,Trung Quc c thnh hng n Vit Nam v mi quan h kinh tgia hai bn khng ngu. Nhng ngi Vit Nam ca mi thnh phn, cng vin ng cng sn v ln nhngngi nm ngai ng, u l nhng ngi c tinh thn quc gia khi ng n nhng tranhchp Bin ng. im mu cht l s ln mnh ca Trung Quc si hi mi quc giaphi iu chnh chkhng ring g Vit Nam.

A: In answer to Mr. Phucs first question, part of the answer revolves around about what do

you mean by communist? Vietnam is an authoritarian one-party regime where it isstruggling to define what is meant by socialism. A small group of party members has beenagitating for a number of years to change the name of the Vietnam Communist Party toVietnam Labor Party (Dang Lao Dong Viet Nam) and to change the name of the countryfrom Socialist Republic of Vietnam to Democratic Republic of Vietnam. This indicates thatcommunist ideology in its purest sense has been diluted. If we take communist regime tomean the current political system, it is likely to evolve and change gradually over severaldecades. During this period the party is likely to be renamed to reflect changes in theeconomy. In this scenario communism does not go out with a bang but with a whimper.

Answer 2: Vietnam suffers from the tyranny of geography. It is an immutable fact thatVietnam borders China, and even with a population of 89 million it is only the size of amiddle Chinese province. China is now the second largest economy in the world and ispredicted to overtake the US economy in several decades. Vietnam like the rest of Asia cannot break away from Chinese influence and control. It can only manage the relationship.This can be done bilaterally through diplomacy, multilaterally through regional institutions,and military through self-help building up Vietnams own military strength.

I also disagree that Vietnam is under Chinese control. To be sure China exercises influenceon Vietnam because of the unequal economic relationship. But Vietnamese of all stripes both members of the communist party and non-party members are nationalists when thequestion of the South China Sea (Bien Dong) is raised. The bottom line is that Chinas risewill require adjustments from all countries, not only Vietnam.

Gio sNguyn Mnh Hng tr li:

Nu nh kh tng da vo nhng dkin khoa hc m vn thng tin on sai, th mtnh khoa hc chnh tr vi dkin t chnh xc, mun tr li cu hi ca ng cho chc chnth qu l s liu lnh v tph qu. Chnh c quan trung ng tnh bo ca M cng bmt schnh tr gia v nhng ngi khng phi l chuyn vin ch trch rng khng tinon c ssp ca Cng Sn ng u.


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V cu hi th2:

Vit Nam cn phi xy dng mt lc lng phng th v rn e hu hiu ng thi theoui mt chnh sch ngoi giao khn kho.

A: If the weathermen often make incorrect weather predictions based on scientific data, it isrisky and pretentious for a political scientist whose data base us much less precise toanswer your question with certainty. The CIA has been criticized by some politicians andlaymen for its failure to predict the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe.

To build a strong defense/deterrence and pursue a wise foreign policy.3. Hi:Trong khong thi gian 5 nm ti, Trung Quc c th ln chim bng mi cch kc v lcot ton b Hong sa v Trng sa, to ra mt s ri, d sau s c hi hp, mphn, b ln n trn trng quc t? Xin cm n GS. (Song Phm)

Q: In the next 5 years, what is the possibility that China would invade Vietnam byall means,

including the use of force, to seize all of Paracel Islands and Spratly Islands, creating a faitaccompli situation, even if that action will be condemned in the international arena?


Trung Quc chim Hong Sa ri. Khng kn cc tnh hung v chin skhng tinliu trc c, cha chc g h s chim ton b Trng Sa, vn ang di skim sotca nhiu quc gia. Tuy vy, khng loi b kh nng TQ s chim tng o mt.

A: China has already occupied the Paracel Islands. Barring unforeseen circumstances andwar, it is unlikely that they would occupy the all of the Spratly islands which are currentlyoccupied by several countries. However, the possibility of Chinese taking over one islandcannot be dismissed.


Trung Quc chim gic cc qun o Hong Sa v s tip tc lm nhvy trong nmnm ti y v lu hn na. Qun o Trng Sa, vi mt vi ngoi l, l nhng tng nhc gi l features theo lut quc t. Nhng tng ny khng c kh nng duy trsinh sng ca con ngi hay c kh nng c lp v kinh t. Trung Quc chc s khng sdng v lc chim cc tng ny tVit Nam bi v vic Trung Quc chim ng tonb Bin ng snh hng n li ch ca nhiu quc gia khc cng ph thuc vo ngbin cho thng mi v vn chuyn nhng nng lng quan trng. iu Trung Quc munl m bo h s l ch nhng ngun hydrocarbon nu c nm qun o ny.

Trong k nguyn ny, nhng cuc xm lc thng thng rt tn km. Xc xut TrungQuc xm chim Vit Nam rt thp, v nu xm chim, Trung Quc s phi tr mt gi rtkhng khip, bao gm chi ph chim ng di hn. Hnh ng xm lng ca Trung Quc sgy bt n cho thng mi ton cu. Tm li, chi ph ca cuc xm lc v chim ng s


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qu t so vi nhng g ly c.

ANSWER: China already occupies all of the Paracel Islands and will continue to do so overthe next five years and longer. The Spratly Islands are, with a few exceptions, tiny rockscalled features in international law. Each rock is incapable of supporting sustained humanhabitation on its own or an independent economic function. China is highly unlikely to useforce to seize features from Vietnam because Chinese occupation of the entire South ChinaSea would affect the interests of many external countries dependent on sea lines ofcommunication to trade and the transport of vital energy supplies. What China seeks tosecure is any hydrocarbon resources if they are discovered.

The modern era has demonstrated that conventional invasions are costly. It is highlyimprobable China would invade Vietnam. It would suffer a terrible price, including the costof protracted occupation. Chinas actions would disrupt global trade. In short, the costs ofinvasion and occupation would far exceed any possible gains.

4. Q:Chinese officials always say their military modernization is for defense purposes.However, all Chinese new weapons are developed to target and destroy US aircraft carriersand fleets while the US has no intention to attack China . Do Chinese consider American asthreats? Why? And as a Vietnamese American, what can I do if Vietnam and China are atwar? Will Vietnam be the second Tibet?(Paul L)

A: Nguyen Manh Hung :

Chinese military is no match for the United States, even in the South China/East Sea. Chinadoes not consider the US as a threat to its national security, but to its influence in Asia andthe Pacific.Theoretically, you have one of the following options: 1) go back to Vietnam and fight; 2)

stay here and protest and mobilize world public opinion against China; 3) blame thegovernment of Vietnam for its failure to protect national sovereignty; or 4) do nothing.In my humble opinion, Vietnam is not likely to become another Tibet.


Qun i TQ khng th snh vi Hoa Kc, ngay c khu vc Bin Nam Hi hay Binng. TQ khng xem M nh l mi e da cho nn an ninh quc gia ca h, nhng l mie da cho nh hng ca h Chu v Thi Bnh Dng.Theo l thuyt, ng c mt trong nhng chn la sau: 1) tr v Vit Nam chin u; 2)Vn c li Hoa K phn i v vn ng d lun quc tchng li TQ; 3) ti chochnh quyn Vit Nam v khng bo vc ch quyn lnh th; hoc 4) Khng lm gc.

Theo thin ca ti, Vit Nam khng d g tr thnh nhTy Tng c.


Trung Quc, di mt Bc Kinh, bao gm ci Loan. Mc ch ti thiu ca Trung Quctrong vic hin i ha qun s l trnh lp li skin ca nm 1996. Vo thi im ,Trung Quc phng tn la n o vo eo bin i Loan v tp trn hi qun e da


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ngi dn i Loan trong thi gian c cuc bu c. Bc Kinh mun t r thi l TrungQuc s phn i sc lp ca i Loan bng v lc. Hoa K can thip vi hai lc lngc nhim hng khng mu hm khin Trung Quc bt hung hng. Trung Quc khng nhquyn iu tit lu lng hi qun trong 200 dm hi l ca Khu kinh tc quyn. Mtkhc, Hoa K khng nh, theo lut quc t, h c quyn a tu qun sn vi mc chkho st v nghin cu. Nhn qua nhng dkin ny, vic hin i ha qun sca TrungQuc c thc xem nh l sphng th v c thit ky Hi qun Hoa K xa hnna ra khi b bin ca Trung Quc.

Lnh o Trung Quc mun nng cao v tr ca nc h v giy nn kinh tca hpht trin. H khng mun b l thuc hay ng sau Hoa K. H cng mun thng trng. Lin minh gia Hoa K vi Nht Bn, Hn Quc v Australia cng vi Hi qun Hoa K llc cn cho nhng tham vng ca Trung Quc.

Trung Quc v Hoa K l hai cng quc c v kh ht nhn. Hoa K c mt kho v kh lnvi. Trung Quc khng tm cch pht trin mt lc lng ht nhn tng ng vi HoaK, m l mun pht trin mt lc cn ng tin cy. l nu b tn cng bi v kh htnhn, Trung Quc mun lc lng ht nhn ca mnh c th tn ti v sau tr th. Trong

v d ny, Trung Quc xem Hoa K l mt mi e da, v kho v kh ht nhn ca Hoa Krt ln.

Phi lm g nu Trung Quc v Vit Nam i n chin tranh?

Cu tr li ca ti phi ty theo nguyn nhn v ai l ngi gy ra cuc chin. Nu TrungQuc l k gy hn, cng dn M c th thc gic chnh ph ca h cung cp v tinh v tintnh bo kp thi cho Vit Nam v lc lng v tnh hnh ca qun i Trung Quc. M c thh tr Vt Nam bng cch cung cp thit b qun sv v kh. V M c th gy p lc hnchcuc xung t, n c schm dt chin tranh. Trch nhim bo v Vit Nam u tinphi nm trong tay cc nh lnh o v qun i ca Vt Nam.

ANSWER:China, in Beijings eyes, also includes Taiwan. Chinas military modernization, ata minimum, is designed to avoid a repeat of the events of 1996. At that time China firedballistic missiles into the Taiwan Strait and conducted naval exercises in order to intimidatethe Taiwanese people during an election period. China was making it clear it would opposeTaiwanese independence by use of force. The US intervened with two carrier task forcegroups and China had to back down. China also claims the right to regulate naval traffic inits 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone. The US, on the other hand, insists it has theright under international law, to send in military ships for survey and research purposes.Given these dynamics, Chinas military modernization can be viewed as defensive anddesigned to push the reach of the US Navy further and further from its shores.

Chinese leaders seek a higher place in the global pecking order as their economy grows.They do not want to be subordinate to the United States. They also seek to be the dominantpower in East Asia. The US alliance system with Japan, South Korea and Australia plus theUS Navy stands in the way of Chinese ambitions.

Both China and the United States are nuclear powers. The United States has a vast arsenal.China does not seek to develop an equivalent nuclear force. Rather, China seeks to developa credible deterrent. If it is attacked by nuclear weapons it wants its nuclear force to be able


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to survive and then retaliate. In this example, China views the US a threat because ofAmericas large nuclear arsenal.

What to do if China and Vietnam go to war? My answer would have to depend on what werethe causes of the war and who was responsible. If China were the aggressor, Americancitizens could urge their government to provide timely satellite and other intelligence toVietnam about Chinese military forces. The US could assist by providing military equipmentand weapons. And the US could exert pressure to keep the conflict limited and urge acessation of hostilities. The burden of defending Vietnam falls on its leaders and theirmilitary in the first instance.

5. Q:1. What would the U.S. do if Vietnam coorperates with China in letting the lattercontrol its south China sea?2. In what circumstances would the U.S. risk its GI's blood & lives in intervening a Vietnam-China fight over border disputes?3. When (what years) would China 's military strength in terms of soldiers, carriers, andairforces is about the same as that of Japan before the end of the Second World War?

(Nguyn Giao)Gio sNguyn Mnh Hng tr li:

1) Khng chc g Vit Nam theo ui chnh sch nhng miu t.2) Nu TQ tn cng tu chin hay binh sHoa K, hoc trong trng hp M c hipc an ninh h tng vi Vit Nam nhh c vi Nht.

3)Sc mnh qun sca TQ hin nay hn Nht thi im trc khi chm dt ThChin Th2.

A: Nguyen Manh Hung

1. Vietnam is not likely to pursue the policy you prescribe.2. If China attacks US ships or personnel or in case the US has a military security

agreement with Vietnam as in the case of US-Japan mutual security pact.3. They already have more than what the Japanese had before WW II.


P 1: Hoa K s hoan nghnh shp tc ha han gia Trung Quc-Vit Nam trong vicBin ng. Hoa K cng c th khuyn khch cc cng ty du m ca M tham gia vo vickhai thc ti nguyn hydrocarbon. Nhng nu hp tc gia Trung Quc - Vit Nam l nhmkim sot tuyn ng thng mi quc tthng qua Bin ng, Hoa K s phn i n lcny, bng cch sdng qun i nu cn thit. Lc Hoa K s ku gi sh tr ca

ng minh v cc i tc thng mi quan trng.

P 2: Hoa K s khng trc tip tham gia vo mt cuc tranh chp bin gii Trung-Vit.Hoa K sng mt vai tr quc tquan trng trong vic to p lc ln nhng nc thamchin chm dt nhng hnh ng gy chin.

P 3: im then cht y l hng khng mu hm, c dng nng cao Hi qun Nht


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Bn Thi Bnh Dng. Hin nay Trung Quc ang hin i ha hng khng mu hm cca h, v dtnh xy t nht mt hng khng mu hm thhai trong thi gian ti. Trongtng lai xa, c th Trung Quc s xy thm nhiu hng khng mu hm na. Hoa K hinthi c 11 hng khng mu hm. Phi vi thp nin na th Trung Hoa mi c c mt shng khng mu hm tng ng vi shng khng mu hm ca Nht Bn vo u Thchin II.

ANSWER 1: The United States would probably applaud China-Vietnam peaceful collaborationin the South China Sea. The US might also encourage American oil companies to becomeinvolved in the exploitation on hydrocarbon resources. But if Sino-Vietnamese cooperationwas aimed at controlling international trade routes through the South China Sea the U.S.would oppose this attempt, using military force if necessary. The US would enlist thesupport of its allies and key trading nations.

ANSWER 2: The United States would not become directly involved in a Sino-Vietnameseconfrontation along their border. The US would play a prominent international role inbringing pressure to bear on the belligerents to cease hostilities.

ANSWER 3: The key here is aircraft carriers, which served to advance the Japanese ImperialNavy across the Pacific. At present China is converting an old carrier into a newer one andhas plans to build at least a second carrier in the near term. Over the longer term it is likelyChina will develop more aircraft carriers. The US has 11 carrier task groups at present. Weare probably looking at several decades before China has the equivalent of Japanesecarriers at the start of World War II.

6. Hi:

Ti nhn thy rng ngi M s khng cho ng CSVN chi tr u dy gia M v Trung

Quc. Khng sm th mun thchin lc mi gia Vit Nam v M s hnh thnh. Tha 2gio sc nghvy khng? Thi gian s l bao lu? Qu v c phng on c khng? Xinchc 2 gio svn ton nh. (Nguyen Van Khoi)

Having followed the news about the conflicts in the South China Sea in the last year, Ibelieve that the US will not let Vietnam swing between China and US, and sooner or later, anew strategy will be formed between US and Vietnam, is that true? Can you two predictwhen this will be?


Hoa K v Vit Nam cng chia s mt vi li ch an ninh chung vng Bin ng. H cnghp tc bo v quyn li chung . Shp tc ny tin c bao xa cn ty vo chnhsch v hnh ng ca TQ v Vietnam . Cm n li cho mng ca ng.

The US and Vietnam share a certain common security interest in the South China Sea .They are cooperating to protect that shared interest. How far this cooperation goes dependson the policies and actions of China and Vietnam .Thank you for your greetings.


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Trong nm 2009 Hoa K p ng nhng mi quan tm ca Vit Nam cng nhca ccquc gia khc trong khu vc - v vic Trung Quc khng nh ch quyn trn Bin ng.Vit Nam v Hoa K c mt ch li chung ( vng bin ny). Skin ng k nht l vic

mt i thoi quc phng cp cao c bt u. Nhng gia hai nc cha c nhngrng bc quc phng g ng k. a snhng hat ng ch c tnh cch tng trng,chng hn nhthm Vit Nam tu sn bay M.

Vit Nam khng tm cch lin minh vi M chng li Trung Quc. Vit Nam tm cch phttrin quan h vi c hai nc phc v li ch ca mnh. Trong cuc hi tho Quc Phngmi 4 nm ca Hoa K gn y nht, Vit Nam c ni n nhmt i tc chin lcnhiu tim nng. Vit Nam s hp tc vi Hoa K chng no h vn c tdo hnh ng.Ti khng dan s c quan hi tc M-Vit chnh thc hoc khng chnh thc nhmvic chng li Trung Quc.

ANSWER: In 2009 the United States responded to Vietnamese concerns and the concernsof other regional states about Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea. BothVietnam and the United States had a convergence of interests. The most substantialdevelopment was the inauguration of a high-level defense dialogue. But little of substancehas emerged in terms of defense ties. Most of the activity has been symbolic, such asVietnamese visits to American aircraft carriers.

Vietnam does not seek to ally with the US against China. Vietnam seeks to develop relationswith both countries to serve its interests. The United States in the Defense Departmentsmost recent Quadrennial Defense Review has already identified Vietnam as a potentialstrategic partner. Vietnam will cooperate with the United States but only as long as itretains freedom of action. I do not forsee a formal or informal US-Vietnam alliance orpartnership directed against China.

7. Hi:1. Vit Nam c cn c lp khng? Ti sao?2. Bao gicng sn Trung Quc sp ? Bng cch no? Ti sao? V bao gi?

Q:1. Is Vietnam still independent? Why?2. When will the Communist China collapse? How? Why? And When?(Mr. L B)


1) Phi, Vit Nam vn l mt quc gia c lp. Chnh ph VN tkim sot c lnh th lndn chng ca h. H tvch ra chnh sch ngoi giao v quc phng.2) Ch ngha Cng Sn ang thay i TQ. Khng ai c th tin liu khi no TQ s ngngtxng mnh theo ch ngha y.

Yes. The government has control over its territory and population. It conducts its ownforeign and defense policies.


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Communism is changing in China . No one can predict when China ceases to call itselfcommunism.


P 1: Vn c lp phi c o lng bng nng trong mt thgii ngy cng toncu ha. Vit Nam c thc lp v n c kh nng tbo v trc ngai xm. Vit Nam tt hng i kinh tcho mnh, v Hoa K, chkhng phi Trung Quc l th trng ln nhtca Vit Nam. Tuy nhin, khng nn ln ln c lp vi sc mnh tan din ca mt qucgia. L mt nc nhang pht trin, Vit Nam phi ht sc n li ch ca nhng lngging mnh m nht, cng nhGia N i v M Ty C lun phi nghn sc mnh tandin ca mt Hoa K.

P 2: Trung Quc sp ch l mt trong nhiu kch bn c th xy ra trong tng lai vl kch bn c xc xut thp nht. Trong lch sTrung Quc tri qua nhng thi gianthng nht, theo sau l nhng lc b phn tranh, tuy nhin khuynh hng ca lch sTrungQuc nghing vthng nht. C l Trung Quc dn d thay i thay v sp .

ANSWER 1: Independence is a matter of degree in an increasingly globalized world. Vietnamis independent because it has the capacity to defend itself against outside aggression.Vietnam sets its own economic course the United States not China is Vietnams largestmarket. But independence should not be confused with comprehensive national power. Asan emerging middle power Vietnam must be mindful of the interests of more powerfulneighbors, as much as Canada and Mexico have to take US comprehensive national powerinto account.

ANSWER 2: Chinas collapse is only one of many possible future scenarios and is also theleast likely. Historically the Chinese empire experienced moments of unity followed bydisunity but historical trends have been to keep China unified. China will likely evolve ratherthan collapse.

8. Hi:Hoa Ks lm g, phn ng nhthno nu trong trng hp c xung sxung t bngqun sgia hai nc Vit Nam v Trung Quc?(c Trn)Gio sNguyn Mnh Hng tr li:iu cn ty thuc khi no vic y xy ra v xy ra nhthno. Cu tr li chi tit hn c p trong cu hi ca . Nguyn Giao.

A:In the event there is a war between China and Vietnam , what will the US do?It depends on when and how. A more detailed answer was given to the above question ofMr. Nguyen Giao.

9. Hi:

Xin nhvGS cho bit kin v mt nhn nh kh phbin ni cng ng ngi Vit hingoi l: S ln mnh ca Trung Cng ngy nay l do chnh sch sai lm t ci bt taygia TT Nixon v Mao vo nm 1972? (NVCH chng ta l mt con bi th cho vic ny)


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(Nguyn Nht Anh)

Q:Would you each please comment on a common perception within the Vietnamesecommunity, that is, the reason China has grown and become so powerful today is becausea strategic mistake stemmed from a handshake between Nixon and Mao Tse-tung in1972, in other words, VNCH was sacrificed because of this strategy.

Gio sNguyn Mnh Hng tr li:Trung Quc tr nn hng mnh nhngy nay l nh quyt nh ca Mao Trch ng i stli vi M v quyt nh ca ng Tiu Bnh p dng ch kinh tth trng v m casang pha Ty Phng. Chnh sch ca M xch gn vi Trung Quc kim chnh hngang ln ca Lin S lc y nhm phc v quyn li ca M. khng phi l mt li lmchin lc.Vit Nam Cng Ha b hy sinh trn bn mc c ca cc i cng v theo quan im ca M,h khng cn quan tm n vic cu vn VNCH bng mi gi na. iu y cng p dng ivi Bc Vit. Nu vo thi im y TQ khng cn nghVit Nam ng c bo v.

A:China has become powerful today thanks to Maos decision to seek rapprochement withthe US and Dengs decision to move China to a market economy and open to the West. USpolicy of rapprochement with China to contain the growing power of the USSR at that timeserved the interest of the US . It was not a mistake.South VN was sacrificed on the alter of big power politics because, from the point of view ofthe US, the US no longer had an interest in saving South Vietnam at all costs. The samecould be said of North Vietnam if, at the time, China did not think supporting North Vietnamwas worth the cost.


Vit Nam Cng Ha bi hy sinh khi Nixon v Kissinger tm cch tht lp mt mi quan hvi Trung Quc. iu ny c thy rt r tcc Thng co Thng Hi. Nhng chnh minBc Vit Nam cng b em bn. Qua cm tdecent interval ('khong cch tt) ngita thy r l Hip nh Paris nm 1973 nhm bt Hoa K ra khi min Nam Vit Nam.Hoa K bi m khng cung cp nhng h tr cn thit cho chnh quyn Nguyn VnThiu gip min Nam tn ti. Trong khi , Trung Quc cvn H Ni nhn nhn chngy thng nht. Nhng vi shu thun ca Lin X, lnh o H Ni chn la giiphp qun sv dng v lc thng nht Vit Nam.

ANSWER: The Republic of Vietnam was sacrificed when Nixon andKissinger sought todevelop a relationship with China. This is clear from the Shanghai Communique. ButNorthVietnam was also sold out. It is clear from the expression decent interval that the 1973

Paris Peace Agreements were designed to extricate the US from South Vietnam. The US gotout and did not offer requisite assistance to the Nguyen Van Thieu government to enable itto survive. China meanwhile counseledHanoi to bide its time over unification. But Hanoisleaders, with Soviet backing, chose the military option and forcibly reunifiedVietnam.

10. Hi:


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Knh tha GS Nguyn Mnh Hng, hin ti Trung Quc thc hin thnh cng c phin nh v ditc hng khng mu hm Hoa Ktkhong cch 2,900 km cha hay chl nhng li thi phng trong hon cnh cng thng trong lciu nhhin ti?(ThinhNguyen)Q: Is it true that China is currently able to fight and destroy the US aircraft carriers from a2900km distance or that is just a rumor?


Trn l thuyt phin ca TQ c kh nng y. Nhng v kh mi ca Trung Quc cha ckh nng t hi qun Hoa Kvo tnh trng be da trm trng.

A: China has the theoretical capability to do so. But US naval power is not in danger ofbeing seriously challenged by China .

11. Hi:

C khi no Cng sn Trung quc s t 'gii th' hoc 'sp ' v chin tranh vi Hoa K?Liu cc nc Cng sn 'anh em' vn 'tn ti' theo 'n anh' cho n ngy CS Trung hoa cmt 'bin c' nhcu hitrn th cc nc chhu stheo?(n Danh)

Q: Is there a possibility that the Chinese Communist will voluntarily dissolve or collapsebecause of being at war with the US? And do you think that the smaller communistcountries will continue to exist, and collapse only when the Chinese communist collapse?


Cng Sn TQ ang thay i. Khng chc g TQ s liu lnh gy chin vi M.

TQ l nc cng sn ln nht cn tn ti.Nu Cng sn TQ sp th kinh nghim cng sn trn thgii s chm dt.

A: Communism in China is changing. It is unlikely that China would risk a war with theUnited States .China is the largest remaining communist countryin the world. If communism in Chinacollapses, the communist experience will end in the world.


Bt k cuc chin tranh ton din gia Trung Quc v Hoa K - d t c c hi xy ra - cng

s sdng v kh ht nhn, v gy thit hi ln lao cho c hai nc. Trung Quc s thit hinng n hn, v h thng chnh tr ca n s tan r.

Ngai Trung Quc ch c bn quc gia khc c gi l cc nc cng sn: Vit Nam, Cuba,Lo v Bc Triu Tin. Vit Nam s bnh hng nng nht nu Trung Quc sp v sph thuc ca Vit Nam vo hng ho ca Trung Quc. Vit Nam siu chnh li. BcTriu Tin s mt mt ng minh thit yu v chquyn Bc Hn s mt i nhng h trvt cht quan trng m Trung Quc hin ang cung cp. Chnh quyn Bc Triu Tin hoc


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c th sp hoc s tm cch thng nht vi Nam Hn Lo s bnh hng bi ssp ca nn kinh tTrung Quc, nhng kinh tLo l khng thc s l mt nn kinh tx hich ngha. Ch Lo s vt qua c cn bo. Cuba s khng bnh hng.

ANSWER:Any full-scale war between China and the United States however unlikely would involved the use of nuclear weapons and enormous damage to both countries. Chinawould suffer the most and its political system would disintegrate.

There are only four other so-called communist countries besides China: Vietnam, Cuba andarguably Laos and North Korea. Vietnam would be the most severely affected if Chinacollapsed because of Vietnams dependence for Chinese goods. Vietnam would readjust.North Korea would loose an essential ally and its regime would loose vital material supportthat China provided. The regime could either collapse or seek reunification with the South.Laos would be impacted by the collapse of China but the Lao economy economy is not reallya socialist economy. The Lao regime would weather the storm. Cuba would be unaffected.

12.Hi:

Gn y, Ngi Vit dn tin ca ngn 'tho tin ng Nam ,' ni l ng kim Ph ThTng Nguyn Sinh Hng s ln Ch Tch Quc Hi. Kh bt ng, phi khng ? Xin hi GSCarl Thayer v GS Nguyn Mnh Hng: Cc ng c 'nghe ngng' no khng? Xin c nghenhn nh ring. Thanks.(Nam Cao)

Q: Recently, Nguoi Viet Daily News publishes an article saying that Mr. Nguyen Sinh Hung

will be the next Head of Congress, do you have any insightful information that you canshare?


iu ny khng c tin on, nhng khng phi l iu ngc nhin. N c l do ca n.

A: It was not predicted, but it was not a surprise. It has its own logic.


y l mt cu hi hay v l mt cu hi kh tr li. Trong cc tnh tan ca sthay ilnh o, vic ng Nguyn Sinh Hng s ln Ch Tch Quc Hi l mt trong hai kch bn cth xy ra. Hin ti B Chnh tr c 15 ngi. Nm ngi s ngh hu v l do tui tc: Nngc Mnh, Nguyn Minh Trit, Phm Gia Khim, Trng Vnh Trng v Nguyn Vn Chi.Nguyn Ph Trng sc lu ginh l Tng B Thng bt k tui tc.

Trong 9 ngi cn li, Trng Tn Sang c nhiu kh nng tr thnh ch tch nc. NguynTn Dng s tip tc lm Th Tng v T Huy Ra c thng u Ban B Th. Bn trong


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snhng chc v cn li s nm trong tay cc ng nhim: B ththnh y H Ni, ngPhm Quang Ngh, v TP H Ch Minh, ng L Thanh Hi, v cc B trng Quc phngPhng Quang Thanh cng nhB trng Cng an L Hng Anh.

Vy l ch cn li hai ngi: Nguyn Sinh Hng v HcVit - sn sng nhm chc Chtch Quc hi. C tin n l ng Vit s ri b B Chnh tr v ngh hu, nu vy, theomc nh, Nguyn Sinh Hng s l ng cvin duy nht cho chc Ch tch Quc hi.

Vic Nguyn Sinh Hng c tr thnh Ch tch Quc hi s gy tranh ci v ngi ta xemng l mt ngi kh khn lm vic cng. ng ta cng tng l mt ci gai sn caTh tng Nguyn Tn Dng. Ngi gichc v Ch tch Quc hi phi l ngi bit nhnnhng v c kh nng dung ha nhng khc bit t c sng thun. C Nng cMnh v Nguyn Ph Trng u c kh nng , nhng Nguyn Sinh Hng th khng chc.

ANSWER: This is a good question and one that is difficult to answer. The mathematics ofleadership change make Sinhs appointment as Chair of the National Assembly (chu tichQuoc Hoi) one of two possibilities. There are currently 15 members of the Politburo. Five willretire on grounds of age: Nong Duc Manh, Nguyen Minh Triet, Pham Gia Khiem, Truong Vinh

Trong and Nguyen Van Chi. Nguyen Phu Trong will be kept on as party secretary generaldespite his age.

That leaves 9 others remaining. Truong Tan Sang is tipped to become the next president,Nguyen Tan Dung will remain as prime minister and To Huy Rua might head the Secretariat.Four of the remaining places will remain with the incumbents: party secretaries of Hanoiand Ho Chi Minh City (Pham Quang Nghi and Le Thanh Hai respectively) and the ministersof National Defense and Public Security (Phung Quang Thanh and Le Hong Anhrespectively).

That leaves ony two individuals Nguyen Sinh Hung and Ho Duc Viet available to fill thepost of chairman of the National Assembly. There are rumors that Viet will retire from thePolitburo. Therefore, by default, Hung would be the only candidate available for chairman ofthe National Assembly.

Hungs appointment would be controversial because he is reportedly a difficult personality toget along with. He has also been a thorn in the side of Prime Minister Dung. The chair of theNational Assembly needs to be self-effacing and have the ability to broker compromise andreach consensus. Both Nong Duc Manh and Nguyen Phu Trong had that ability, Hung is lesscertain.

13. Hi:

Trung Quc v Hoa K, ai c quyn la chn, v s la chn nhiu hn, i vi Vit Nam ?Vit Nam c s la chn no khng, trong vic nn 'i' vi Bc Kinh hay/v Washington ?H Ni chn la nhthno trong thi gian qua?(Ngi Vit Nam)

Between China and the US , which country has the most influence and can exercise moreoptions with Vietnam ? Does Vietnam has any choice between siding with the US and China? And how do you think Ha Noi has chosenup to this point?


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Hoa K c nhiu chn la hn. TQ cn phi giVit Nam trong vng nh hng ca mnhhay t ra khng chu nh hng bi mt quc gia i th . Hoa K mun thy Vit Nam vngmnh v c lp i vi TQ, nhng s khng cn phi lm iu ny bng mi gi.Vit Nam mun xch li gn hn vi Hoa K v Ty Phng m khng gy th nghch mtcch khng cn thit vi TQ. H lm c nhvy, v mt chng mc no hthnh cng.

A: The US has more options. China must see to it that Vietnam remains under its influenceor at least not under the influence of a rival country. The US would like for Vietnam to bestrong and independent from China , but does not have to do it at all costs.Vietnam seeks closer ties with the US and the West without antagonizing Chinaunnecessarily. It has done so and, to certain extent, has been successful.


Trung Quc c nhiu nh hng chnh tr Vit Nam hn so vi Hoa K v Trung Quc vVit Nam u c ng cng sn. iu ny to ra mt ng dn c bit cho Trung Qucnh hng n Vit Nam. Lnh o ng hp hi ngh thng nh thng xuyn, cc quanchc cao cp t chc hi tho chia s kinh nghim, v Tng cc Chnh tr qun i cahai quc gia cng trao i. Trung Quc khng t p lc ln Vit Nam v tdo tn gio vnhn quyn. Tht ra, B cng an ca hai nc thng xuyn tng tc hc hi ln nhau.Hoa K c l c nh hng kinh tnhiu hn bi v Vit Nam cn tip cn th trng M vu tca M v chuyn giao cng ngh. iu ny tri ngc vi u trt thp v chuyngiao cng ngh ti thiu ca Trung Quc vo Vit Nam.

Vit Nam theo ui mt chnh sch ngai giao 'bn hng tm phng' v khng vnh vinnghing hn v pha Trung Quc hay Hoa K. K tkhi bnh thng ha quan h Trung-Vitnm 1991, Vit Nam c l nghing v Trung Quc nhiu hn. Tht ra, quan h vi TrungQuc ca Vit Nam thng gim tc nhng quan h pht trin vi Hoa K, c bit lnhng quan h quc phng. Nhng vic Trung Quc khng nh ch quyn ti Bin ng, tcui nm 2007, thay i tt ciu ny. Vit Nam hin ang theo ui cc mi quan hquc phng vi Hoa K khuyn khch sc mt ca Hoa Kng Nam . H Ni xemshin din ca Hoa K nhmt cn bng vi Trung Quc.

Mi bang giao gia Vit Nam vi Trung Quc v Hoa K l mt chc tranh lun trongng. Phe bo th tm n Trung Quc v cc vn lin quan n thc h v m hnh

pht trin kinh t. Nhng vn bin ng lm tt c mi vn lin quan n TrungQuc tr thnh cng thng. Gii tr thc Vit Nam l nhng ngi c tinh thn quc gia vdo khng t th nhiu u c thi chng Trung Quc. Trong khi , nhng ngi Vittheo ui quan im hi nhp quc tv quan h vi Hoa K, phi vt qua nhng li chtrch Hoa K v p lc ca Hoa K v nhn quyn v tdo tn gio. Phe bo th cho rng'th lc th ch' ang tm cch lt ch x hi ch ngha Vit Nam qua din bin habnh. im mu cht l Vit Nam theo ui mt zig-zag thng hng gia Bc Kinh v HoaThnh n.


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ANSWER: China has more political influence in Vietnam than the US because China andVietnam both have communist parties. This provides a special conduit for China to influenceVietnam. Party leaders hold regular summit meetings, senior officials hold theoreticalseminars to share experience, and the General Political Departments in both militariesinteract. China puts no pressure on Vietnam with respect to religious freedom and humanrights. In fact their public security ministries regularly interact to learn from each other. TheUnited States probably has more economic influence because Vietnam needs access to theUS market and US investment and technology transfer. This contrasts to low Chineseinvestment and minimal technology transfer.

Vietnam pursues an all-directional foreign policy and does not permanently side withChina or the United States. Since the normalization of Sino-Vietnamese relations in 1991,Vietnam has probably sided more with China. In fact, Vietnams relations with China oftenput a break on developing ties with the United States. This has been the case with defenserelations particularly. But Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea, since late 2007,has changed all this. Vietnam is now pursuing defense ties with the United States in order toencourage the US to remain engaged in Southeast Asia. Hanoi views an American presenceas a balance against China.

Vietnams conduct of its relations with China and the United States is a subject of internalparty debate. Conservatives look to China on matters of ideology and as a model ofeconomic development. But the South China Sea issue has made all matters Chinesecontentious. The elite in Vietnam is nationalist and therefore to a certain extent anti-China.For those in Vietnam pursuing international integration and relations with the US, they haveto surmount US criticism and pressure over human rights and religious freedom. Theconservatives argue that hostile forces are trying to subvert Vietnams socialist regimethrough peaceful evolution. The bottom line is that Vietnam pursues a straight zig-zag linebetween Beijing and Washington.

14. Hi:

Nguyn Tn Dng ang 'popular', chc cn ngi 1 nhim kTh Tng, ri 2 nhim kTng b thna mi c c 'din bin ho bnh' ti VN. Tng cng 15 nm. Hai vc nghCSVN s li vo bng ti lch strong 15 nm na khng, hay l tibi quan qu ng?(Henry Nguyen)

Q:Nguyen Tan Dung is still being popular, I think he will finish one more term of beingPrime Minister, and 2 terms of being General Secretary before there is a chance for apeaceful evolution in Vietnam. Thats a total of 15 years. Do you both think that we have

to wait another 15 years for the Vietnamese Communist to be a thing of the past, or am Ibeing overly pessimistic?


C v nhng Dng s tip tc lm Th Tng hay ngay c s lm Tng B Th. Tui tc


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ng ta qu ln kh c th nm thm hai nhim k TBT ca ng CSVN, sau khi phc vthm 5 nm ghTh Tng.

A: It is likely that Mr. Dung will continue to be the PM of VN or even SG. It would be too oldfor him to assume two additional terms as SG of the CPV after having served an additionalfive years as PM.Gio sCarl Thayer tr li:Nguyn Tn Dng c thc ti cnm thm nhim k th tng 5 nm na nhngkh th no tr nn tng b thng vo cui nhim k ny. ng Dng sinh nm 1949, sl 67 tui vo phin nhm quc hi k ti. ng c tha ra qui nh ngoi l mi chophp ngi trn 67 tui lm tng b th, nhng ng Dng ch c th ngi c ti a mtnhim k. Theo ti h s chn ngi tr hn.Trong 15 nm ti Vit Nam vn gidanh ngha cng sn.ANSWER: Nguyen Tan Dung may well be re-nominated for another five-year term as primeminister but he is unlikely to be made party secretary general at the end of this period.Dung was born in 1949 and he will be 67 at the next congress. It is possible the party couldinvoke the rule allowing exemptions for the party secretary general to be over 65 but Dung

could serve only one term. It is my assessment they will go for someone younger.In 15 years Vietnam will still be nominally communist.

15. Hi:

Ti sao ngi CSVN rt l sTrung Quc? V h li bn ng i nhiu phn ca lnh thVit Nam cho Trung Quc? Ngi dn trong nc v ngoi nc nn lm g bo v tquc?(V)

Q: Why are Vietnamese Communsit afraid of China? And sell many parts of Vietnameseterritory to China? What should people in and out of the country do to protect our land?


Lnh o cng sn ca Vit Nam ngy nay phi i mt vi nhng tnh hung kh xtngtnhngi tin nhim ca h: lm thno qun l cc mi quan h khng cn xngvi lng ging khng l phng Bc. Vit Nam ng hng thmi ba trn thgii k vdn s, nhng v mt kinh tn ch nh bng mt tnh trung bnh ca Trung Quc. VitNam phi cn bng mi bang giao ny bng cch tha nhn sc mnh vt tri ca TrungQuc, m vn i Trung Quc tn trng ch quyn ca mnh. S ln mnh ca Trung Quckhng chnh hng n Vit Nam m cc nc lng ging ca Vit Nam. Vit Nam khngthi nhng bc li trong vic pht trin quan h vi Trung Quc, v nhths b b lipha sau.

Vit Nam chc chn c th bo v lnh tht lin ca mnh. Nhng lnh hi li l mt vn khc. Qun o Hang Sa b mt tthi Vit Nam Cng Ha, vi Hoa K l ngminh. Ngy nay Trung Quc c kh nng thc thi lnh cm nh bt c n phng trongvng bin Nam Hi m Vit Nam phi chu, v Trung Quc c quyn lc lm nhvy.

Vit Nam phi xy dng lc lng quc phng ring ca mnh v tm kim ng minh cngnhsh tr tcng ng quc t. Stin thai lng nan ca Vit trong vic i ph vi


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mt Trung Quc ngy cng mnh m, khng phi l vn ca ring Vit Nam mt mnh,m l vn chung ca tan b khu vc chu -Thi Bnh Dng.

ANSWER: Todays Vietnamese communist leaders face the same dilemmas as theirpredecessors: how do you handle assymetric relations with the giant neighbor to the north.Vietnam ranks thirteenth in population in the world but it is only a middle size Chineseeconomy. Vietnam must manage this relationship by acknowledging Chinas superior powerwhile obtaining from China respect for Vietnams autonomy. Chinas rise is affecting not justVietnam but its neighbors. Vietnam cannot hold back from developing relations with China,it would be left behind.

Vietnam can surely defend its land territory. But at sea the matter is different. It was theRepublic of Vietnam, with the US as an ally, that lost the southern Paracels. Today Chinahas the ability to enforce unilateral fishing bans in the South China Sea at Vietnamsexpense because it has the power to do so.

Vietnam must build up its own defense forces and seek allies and support from the

international community. Vietnams dilemma in dealing with a rising and increasinglypowerful China is not Vietnams problem alone, it is one faced by the entire Asia-Pacific.

16. Hi:

Khi B-Trng Quc Phng Mn Trung-Quc, h c khoe my bay tng hnh, chuyn hthc ra sao, xin cho kin?(Th Trn)

When US Minister of Defense visited Bejing , China boasted about their Stealth Bomber, wasthere some truth in that story?


iu c tht.

It is true.

17. Hi:Vit Nam ni ting vi chin lc du kch trong lch schin tranh chng Trung Quc, Phpv M, nht l trn b trhai ln trn bin, mt ln vi qun Hn vo thkth8 v chngqun Mng Cthk12. C ci g ging nhchin tranh du kch trong hi chin hin ithi nay?(Nguyen Noi)

Q: VietNam has been well known with guerrilla warfare tactics thoughout history againstChinse, French and American, mostly on land, except 2 times on water against Hans navyin 8th century and against Mogolians navy in 12th century. Is there such thing as guerrillatactics in modern Navy of today ?


Trong chuyn thm Vit Nam gn y nht, ti c nghe nhng li ch trch v quyt nhmua su chic tu ngm Kilo-class ca Vit Nam. Cc nh ph bnh cho rng nhng chictu ny qu tn km v chi ph bo tr s 'git' Vit Nam. Nhng ngi ch trch cho rng


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dng tin mua tu tun tra tn la chy nhanh th tt hn. Mt khc, su chic tungm Kilo-class l mt phng tin ngn chn mnh m. Nhng tu ny hot ng n v cth tn cng bt ng. Vit Nam cng bt u mua nhng tu chng hm i tn la tncng nhanh u t lin. Nhng tu tn cng nhanh v tu ngm c thc dng chonhng cc tn cng quy ri, nhng nhng cn ctrn b s d tn hi khi b tn cng.

ANSWER: In my most recent visit to Vietnam I heard criticism of Vietnams decision topurchase six Kilo-class submarines. The critics argued they were too expensive and themaintenance costs four kill Vietnam. These critics argued that money could be betterspent on fast missile patrol boats. On the other hand, six Kilo-class submarines is apowerful deterrent. They operate by stealth and can attack with surprise. Vietnam has alsobegun acquiring land based anti-ship cruise missiles.Both fast attack craft and submarineswould be used to conduct harassing raids. But their bases on shore would be vulnerable toair attack.

18. Q:

U.S. Navy are moving to the Western Pacific 3 fleets of force led by carriers. In the longrun, US will need 1 additional naval base for a carrier-level force, in addition to the 2 inJapan and South Korea in Northeast Asia. Do you think the US needs a base in Cam Ranh,Vietnam or Subic Bay, Philippines to even out the forces in the 2 areas Northeast andSoutheast Asian? The Changi base in Singapore is too small. (Nguyen Manh Tri).


ANSWER: fixed military bases are expensive to maintain and subject to the domesticpolitics of the host country. In todays world, they also are vulnerable targets. A former

Commander of the US Pacific Command put it this way, the US seek places not bases.Cam Ranh Bay would be a suitable stop over point for US ships in transit. As facilities getbuild up there, Vietnam could undertake minor repairs as it is currently doing. Guam is thecenter point for US forces and consideration is being given to developing facilities inAustralia for US forces at the southern end of the western Pacific.

Vietnam has made it clear it will not permit foreign military bases.

P: Nhng cn cqun scnh rt tn km duy tr, v chu nh hng tnh hnhchnh tr trong nc ca quc gia s ti. Trong thgii ngy nay, cn cqun scnhcng l mc tiu d b tn thng. Mt cu t lnh ch huy ca qun i Hoa K ti phtbiu thny: Hoa Ki tm nhng 'ni chn chkhng phi cn c.' Vnh Cam Ranh Bay sl mt im dng thch hp cho cc tu ca M qu cnh. Sau khi cc c sc xy dngxong , Vit Nam c ph trch nhng sa cha nh nhhin nay. Guam l im trungtm cho cc lc lng M v ang c cu xt pht trin cc c s ti c cho cc lclng Hoa K cui pha nam ca Ty Thi Bnh Dng.

Vit Nam khng nh r rng l s khng cho php cc cn cqun snc ngoi.

19. Hi:


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Chng ti rt lo lng v stn vong ca t nc Vit Nam trc snhu nhc v c tica nh cm quyn CSVN v trc strn p, xm lng ca Tu Cng. Xin qu gio svuilng cho bit kin. (o Vn)

Q: We are very worried about the survival of Vietnam as a country in light of the cowardiceand dictatorial ways of the communist Vietnamese government and the invasion bycommunist China. Please give your opinion. Thank you.


Chnh Cng sn Vit Nam thnh cng trong vic chng li xm lc ca Trung Quc tibin gii Vit Trung vo nm 1979. Cu hi ca bn tt nht nn t gc so snh: ccnc khc nm bin gii Trung Quc ang lm g? Thi Lan tchi t vn Bin ngv s lm mt lng Trung Quc. Phi Lut Tn th lc nng lc lnh, v khng chu hin iha qun sca mnh. Phi Lut Tn hy vng sc Hoa K hay Trung Quc che chtng thng cho hnh vi phc tng ca mnh. Nh cm quyn Campuchia hin nay nhnvin tr ln ca Trung Quc, trong khi vi thp nin trc y Trung Quc h tr Khmer! Ti ng rng chnh quyn Vit Nam hin nay l mt chc ti, nhng ti s

khng ng l h hn nht. Nu Trung Quc xm lc Vit Nam ngy hm nay, h s phichu cc cuc chin tranh ko di tng tnhk ngai xm ca Vit Nam trc gpphi. V Vit Nam cui cng s thng th. Nu mt kch bn nhthxy ra ng cng snc th sc im tt khi Vit Nam thng trn.

ANSWER: It was communist Vietnam that successfully resisted Chinas invasion of itsborder area in 1979. Your question is best put in comparative perspective: what are othercountries on Chinas periphery doing? Thailand refused to raise the South China Sea issuefor fear of alienating China. The Philippines blows hot and cold and refused to modernize itsmilitary. It expects a free ride from the United States and/or for China to reward itscompliant behavior. Cambodias regime is now accepting large amounts of Chinese aid,while decades ago China was supporting the Khmer Rouge! I agree that Vietnam today is

dictatorial but I would not agree it is cowardly. If China invaded Vietnam today it would besubject to the same protracted warfare that previous foreign aggressors encountered. AndVietnam would ultimately prevail. If such a scenario occurred the communist party couldtake credit for Vietnams victory.

20. Hi:

Ai cng bit Trung Quc giu ln l nhMgip. Khi gip Trung Quc nhvy, chc hn Mnghrng mnh c thkim sotc sc mnh v tnh tham lam ca Trung Quc. Nhngliu riy, Mc gic kh nng khng? Tha SG Nguyn Mnh Hng v GS CarlThayer. (Vui Hong)

Q:Its common knowledge that the reason China has become so prosperous is because ofthe help from the US . Apparently when helping China , the US believed that they cancontrol China s growth and ambition. But, in reality, is that something that the US can do?


TQ tr nn giu c hu ht nh chnh sch ca chnh h. M trao i mu dch vi TQ vquyn li ca M chkhng phi v quyn li ca TQ.


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A: China has become wealthy mostly because of its own policy. The US trades with Chinafor its own interests not for China s interests.

21. Hi:

Gio sc nghrng VN hin nay ang ng gia hai ln n ( Hoa K v Trung Quc), liusch lc VN hm nay trong thchin quc s nhthno givng thc lp gia haii cng? Thnh tht cm n GS. (Nguyn Thip)

Q:Between China and the US , do you think Vietnam is between a rock and a hard place ?What should Vietnam s strategy be in order to maintain its sovereignty between 2 powerfulnations?

Gio sNguyn Mnh Hng tr li:ng vy, Vit Nam ang ng thtin thoi lng nan. TQ l e da cho ch quyn vston vn lnh th ca VN, trong khi theo quan im ca cc lnh t cng sn, Hoa K lmi e da din tin ha bnh. TQ l mt mi e da i vi ch quyn VN, cn Mcnhn thy nh l mi e da i vi stn vong ca ch CS.

V cu hi thhai, xin xem cu tr li ca ti p li cu hi ca . Phuc Do

A: Yes, Vietnam is between a rock and a hard place. China presents a threat to Vietnam ssovereignty and territorial integrity while, form Vietnamese leaders point of view, the USrepresents the threat of peaceful evolution. China is a threat to Vietnam s sovereignty,the US is a perceived threat to the survival of the communist regime.

For your second question, please see my answer to Mr. Phuc Dos question.

22. Hi:

Cc ng khng cn a ng nhng dn VN cn th sao? Xin gio scho kin. (Hng)

Q:The US may not need a multi-party regime, but Vietnam may need it. What do youthink?


Hoa K hoan nghnh mt h thng lng ng VN. Nu iu ny xy ra, quan h M Vits tht cht hn.

The US would welcome a two-party system in Vietnam . If this happened, it would solidifyUS-Vietnam relations.


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Thu lp quc, tin nhn ca Hoa K khng h mu tnh n mt h thng lng ng mn ttin ha mt cch tnhin. Kha cnh quan trng ca h thng Hoa K l ngi dnc th loi bng cm quyn mt cch n ha bng l phiu, v khi mt ng nm quyn,h thng kim sot v cn bng ca M bt u hot ng. Quyn lc c phn phi ngu gia cc ngnh Hnh Php, Lp Php v TPhp. Hoa K ngy nay s khng l HpChng Quc nu thiu vng h thng lng ng.Chnh tra nguyn ri ra s pht trin Vit Nam . Khi kinh tpht trin, cc phe nhmkhc nhau trong x hi s c nhng quyn li ring. iu kh l tin trnh chuyn tip tmt chc ng sang a ng s xy ra nhthno. Mt ng chng i s vn lntmt nn tng vng chc, hay ng CS VN c th tpht trin thnh cc cnh khc nhau,mt tin b v mt bo th. GS Samuel Huntington thuc trng H Havard, trong cunsch nhan The Third Wave, ra ba m hnh dn ch rng ri: (1) k xut sc tronggii cm quyn s l ngi lnh o; (2) phe chng i nm quyn lc; v (3) cc phn t

xut sc kt hp vi phn tchng i mang li sthay i. Theo quan im ca ti, 1 v 3thch hp vi VN hn c.ANSWER: The US two-party system was not envisaged by the Founding Fathers butevolved naturally. The important feature of the US system is that the citizens can removethe party in power peacefully through the ballot box, and when a party is in power theAmerican system of checks and balances operates. Power is dispersed between Executive,Legislative and Judicial branches. The US today would not be the United States without itstwo party system.Political pluralism will inevitably develop in Vietnam . And as the economy develops,different groups in society will have different interests. The difficulty is how the process oftransition from a single party to a multi-party regime will take place. An opposition partycould emerge with firm roots, or the Vietnam Communist Party could develop separatewings, one progress the other conservative. Harvard Professor Samuel Huntington, in his

book The Third Wave, sets out three broad patterns of democratization: (1) elites in powertake the lead; (2) the opposition takes power; and (3) elements of the elite join withelements of the opposition to bring about change. In my opinion 1 and 3 are the most likelyscenarios for Vietnam

23. Hi:

Liu sxp ca ch cng sn l c thhay ch ny s cn cm quyn lu di?Cm n Gio s, chc Gio snm mi sc khe di do. (Chn Nguyn)

Q: Will the collapse of communism in Vietnam be possible, or will this (communist) regimebe able to hold on to its power in the years to come?


iu y c th xy ra nhng khng ai c th ni c khi no iu y s xy ra. iu chc


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chn l: chnh tr Vit Nam phi thay i thch nghi vi thay i kinh t ln x hi, viu ny ang xy ra. Ti cng xin gi li chc mng nm mi n ng.

A: It is possible. Nobody can predict exactly when that will happen. One thing is certain:Vietnamese politics must change to accommodate economic and social changes, and it ischanging. Happy New Year to you, too.

24. Hi:

Vit Nam si dy gia Trung Cng v Mbao lu? Chin tranh Vit Trung c thxy ratrong vng 10 nm na hay khng v c thtrnh c khng? Nu xy ra th VN c ththng cuc chin khng?(Dzung Vu)

Q: How long will Vietnam continue to walk a line between US and China ? Will there be awar between China and Vietnam in the next ten years? Is that something that can beavoided, and if not, can Vietnam win that war?


Cng lu cng tt.

Theo ti ngh, cuc chin tranh gia VN vi TQ kh th xy ra. Nhng mt cuc ng nh th c th. Vit Nam khng th mt mnh chng thnh cng trong mt cuc chin viTQ.

A: As long as possible.

A war between Vietnam and China is not likely, in my opinion. A small, brief skirmish is

possible. Vietnam cannot win a war with China alone.

25. Hi:

Nu Vit Cng chu bo v quyn li ca Vit Nam chng Trung Quc cng nhVNCH lmnm 1973, Hoa Kc im lng ng xem nh ln trc? Hay c phn ng g khc tphaHoa K? Ti sao khc phn ng ln trc (1973)?(Nguyn Ni)

Q:If the Viet Cong were willing to defend the Vietnams interest against China just like theRepublic of South VietNam did in 1973, would USA just quietly stand by and watch like lasttime ? or what kind of reaction would there be from USA ? why different reaction from last

time (1973) ?Gio sCarl Thayer tr li:

Trong thi gian hin ti, c hi Hoa K can thip qun svo xung t gia Vit Nam vTrung Quc rt thp. Hoa K s huy ng cng ng quc t to p lc ln nhng bntham chin chm dt chin tranh. Nhng iu ph thuc vo nguyn nhn ca cucxung t v ai l ngi gy chin. c v nhng ngi gy nn n. Nu Trung Quc l


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k gy hn, Hoa K c th cung cp cho Vit Nam tnh bo cn thit, v Hi qun M c thngn chn cc tu Trung Quc i vo khu vc xung t.

ANSWER: The United States is highly unlikely to intervene military in a conflict betweenVietnam and China today. The United States would mobilize the international community tobring pressure on the belligerents to cease hostilities. But first it depends on what the causeof the conflict was and who provoked it. If China was the aggressor the US might provideVietnam with appropriate intelligence. And the US Navy might deter Chinese ships fromentering the conflict zone.

26. Hi:

Kh nng tht ca v kh ht nhn Trung Quc l g? Th d, c thno ph hy ht ccthnh ph ln ca Nht trong 24 gi, , v kh ny c thph hy ti bao nhiu v bao xa?(Nguyn Ni)

What is the real capability of Chinas nuclear weapon ? For example, can it destroy all major

Japans cities in 24 hours, , how far and how much can it destroy ?


Hin Trung Quc c khang 20 u n ht nhn, hay nhiu hn. Khng c quc gia notrn thgii hin i c th tn ti nu hai mi thnh ph ln nht ca n b v kh htnhn ph hy. Nu Trung Quc sdng v kh ht nhn nh Nht Bn, n c th s bHoa K tra. Kch bn ny t trn gi s l Trung Quc ra tay t ngt v khng cnhbo. Trn thc t, ssuy thoi dn d ca quan h song phng s l mt cnh bo choNht Bn. Nht Bn c kh nng pht trin v kh ht nhn ch trong vng vi thng. Trongmt cuc chin tranh ht nhn, khng c ngi chin thng.

ANSWER: China may possess something of the order of 20 or more nuclear warheads.There is no modern country in the world today that could survive if twenty of its largestcities were destroyed by nuclear weapons. If China used nuclear weapons against Japan itwould likely suffer retaliation from the United States. The above scenario presupposes Chinaacted suddenly and without warning. It is more likely that the deterioration of bilateralrelations would provide Japan with warning time. Japan can in a matter of months developnuclear weapons. There are no winners in a nuclear war.

27. Hi:

Gi sNam Hn c thv ng hp nht vi Bc Hn v kinh t, nu Trung Quc bnng Bc Hn (nhM lm vi Nam Vit Nam) v bo m quyn tdo i libin NamTrung Hoa cho Hoa K, Nht v Hn Quc, v i li Hoa Kscho Trung Quc tonquyn iu khin ti nguyn bin Nam Trung Hoa v Vit Nam, th Hoa Kc ng nghny khng?(Nguyn Ni)

Q:Assuming that South Korea is able and willing to absorb North Korea economically, ifChina proposed to sell off North Korea (just like American did to South Viet-Nam) andguarantee the free passage in South China sea to USA, Japan and Korea, in return USAwould let China control fully the resources of South China sea and VietNam, would USA buythis proposal ?


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Trung Quc s vo mt v tr suy yu i nhiu nu Hn Quc c thng nht nhmtquc gia ng minh thn M. Trung Quc khng th cp quyn i li qua Bin ng mtcch min ph, v n khng th kim sot schuyn ng ca tu hi qun M v hi qunca ng minh. Tt c cc ngun ti nguyn ti Bin ng khng cng khng ng nh icho mt Hn Quc thng nht thn M. Hoa K s tip tc nhn mnh rng vng bin quct l ti sn chung ca ton cu m mi quc gia phi c hng.

ANSWER: China would be in a much weakened position if Korean were unified under a pro-American ally. China is in no position to grant free passage to the South China Sea becauseit cannot control the movement of US and allied naval vessels. All the supposed resources inthe South China Sea are not worth a unified pro-American Korea (the Germany of EastAsia). The US would continue to insist that international waters are part of the globalcommons to be enjoyed by all nations.


y l cu hi c tnh cch gi thuyt. Ti khng tin tng lai s din tin theo mt cchn gin nhvy.

This is a hypothetical question. I doubt that future development will take place in such asimplistic manner.

28. Hi:

1) C tin n tWikileaks l Vit Nam xin Trung Quc cho l mt nc ttrdi schoca Trung Quc. C tht khng?

2) Nu Trung Quc tn cng Vit Nam, Mc gip?

3)ASEAN dng nhkhng xng ni vi Trung Quc v qun s, vy ASEAN phi lm g i ph vi Trung Quc trong trng hp mt nc ASEAN bTrung Quc tn cng? (JonLng)

Q:

1) There is a rumor from Wikileaks that Vietnam requested China to become an autonomouscountry under Chinas direction. Is it true?2) If China attacks Vietnam, America will help?3) ASEAN seems no match to China in term of military, what should ASEAN do to cope withChina in case 1 among ASEAN countries being attacked by China?


Ti cha c nghe tin n ny. Ti s cn phi xem chi tit v thi im m tin n nyni ti. Tng thng Roosevelt ngh vi ng Tng Gii Thch l cho ng quyn kimsot i vi Vit Nam, v ng ta tchi mt cch khn ngoan.

i vi phn 2 ca cu hi, cu tr li cn ty vo nguyn nhn gy ra chin sv ai l


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ngi c li. Nu Trung Quc l k xm lc M s huy ng cng ng quc t pdng hnh thc xpht thch hp v lm p lc chm dt chin scng nhtm cch an mt tha thn. M c th cung cp thng tin tnh bo kp thi hoc thm ch thit bqun scho Vit Nam. M c th cng huy ng tu ca mnh ngn chn cc tu TrungQuc i vo khu vc chin tranh. M s k vng Vit Nam phi tv trc.

Vit Nam khng phi mt ng minh c hip c ca M v do khng c quyn ku gih tr ca qun i M.

i vi phn 3: ASEAN yu v mt qun sbi v n khng c mt lnh o chung. Nu ccthnh vin ch cht, ang l ng minh Hoa K hay i tc chin lc ca ASEAN b TrungQuc tn cng, Hoa K s can thip qun svi lin minh ca cc khu vc quy nh. NuASEAN b tn cng gn nhc thgii s p dng cc bin php phong ta trng phtv Trung Quc. Giao thng s b ph v. Trung Quc s phi tr gi khng khip v mt inhiu thnh qu pht trin ca nhiu thp nin. Hnh ng nhths mang c li g choTrung Quc? Hin gi nhiu ncc ASEAN ang thn vi Trung Quc.

ANSWER: I have not heard the rumour. I would need to see the details and what historicalperiod was being referred to. It was President Roosevelt who offered Chiang Kai-shekcontrol over Vietnam and he wisely declined.

As for part 2, it depends on the cause of hostilities and who was to blame. If China was theaggressor the US would mobilize the international community to adopt appropriatesanctions and to press for an end to hostilities and a negotiated settlement. The US mightprovide timely intelligence or even military equipment to Vietnam. The US might alsostation its ships so as to prevent Chinese ships from entering the war zone. The US wouldlook to Vietnam to defend itself in the first instance. Vietnam is not a treaty ally of the USand therefore has no call on US military support.

As for part 3: ASEAN is weak militarily because it does not have a joint operationalcommand. If key members of ASEAN who are US allies or strategic partners were attackedby China, the US would intervene militarily with a coalition of other regional stated. IfASEAN were attacked nearly the whole world would apply sanctions on China. Trade wouldbe disrupted. China would pay a terrible price and forfeit decades of development. Whatcould China possible gain by such actions? Many ASEAN countries are already close toChina.


1.Ti khng thy c bng chng no chng t li n i l stht.

2. Xin xem cu tr li ca ti cho cu hi ca ng Nguyn Giao

3. Trong trng hp hin nay th ASEAN khng lm c g nhiu.

A:


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1) I have no evidence that such rumor is a correct description of fact.2) I have answered this question to Mr. Nguyen Giao.3) Under the present circumstances, not much.

29. Hi:

Bit rng cng 4 khun mt c sn ti hing Cng Sn Vit Nam sp chm dt, chy vng no cho tng lai? Ti khng c hy vng no c v s phi qun i li phn tch vtin on nm 2005 ca Goldman Sach l Vit Nam s l mt trong s11 ktip. (LarryDinh)

Given the same 4 old faces coming from the Vietnam's Communist Party Congress whichwill be ended soon, Is there any hope in the future ? I have no hope at all and certainly Ishould forget Goldman Sach's 2005 analysis and prediction that VN will be one of the NEXTELEVEN.

Tr li ca GS Thayer

Tht ra Vit Nam thc hin mt qu trnh thay i theo tng thh k ti hi ngthNm vo thng Ba nm 1982. Gi th vic mt phn ba hay nhiu hn thnh vin cacc y ban Trung ng v ngh hu, v sngi v hu ca B Chnh Tr cn nhiu hn tr thnh thng l. Cc nh lnh o chc ti chc ti a hai nhim k v phi - vi mtngoi l nh - ngh hu tui 65. Ti nm nay 65 tui, nhng vn thy mnh cn nhiusc phng s. Nhng 'gng mt c', gi theo cch ca bn, m ca a Vit Namvo nn kinh tton cu , v to mt t l tng trng sn xut trung bnh khong 7% mtnm trong thp nin qua. Trong khi 5 ngi ng nhim trong B Chnh tr sm nhimnhng chc v cao nht ca nh nc v ng, 5 hoc 6 ngi mi s gia nhp B Chnhtr. Vit Nam c tim nng tr thnh mt quyn lc quan trng bc va. Trong cuc hi

tho mi 4 nm, b Quc Phng Hoa K a ra tn hiu l Vit Nam v Indonesia vMalaysia l nhng i tc chin lc c tim nng.

ANSWER: In fact Vietnam has been carrying out a phased process of generational changesince the 5th party congress in March 1982. It is now routine that up to a third or more ofCentral Committee members will retire and even more members of the Politburo. Leadersare given a limit of two terms in office and must with a small exception retire at 65. Iam 65 and still feel I have much to offer. The old faces as you call them have openedVietnam to the global economy and produced growth rates averaging about 7% for the lastdecade. While five incumbents on the Politburo will assume the highest state and partyoffices, 5 or 6 new persons will join the Politburo. Vietnam has the potential to become animportant middle power. The US Defense Department in its Quadrennial Defense Reviewhas signaled out Vietnam along with Indonesia and Malaysia as a potential strategic partner.

* Phn tr liang tip tcc cp nht


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Ngi Vit Online hn hnh lm cu ni gia c gi Vit Nam v 2 gio shngu v vn Vit Nam, Hoa K v Trung Quc: Gio SNguyn Mnh Hng vGio SCarl Thayer.Cuc phng vn trc tuyn s c stham gia cng lc ca hai v gio s, mt Hoa K,mt c Chu. ti phng vn xoay quanh ch Vit Nam trong thtng quan HoaK - Trung Quc.

Phn tr li ca 2 din gi, ko di 1 ging h, c trnh by bng c 2 ngn ng, Anhv Vit (phn Vit ngdo Ngi Vit chu trch nhim chuyn dch).

Gio sNguyn Mnh Hng

Gio SNguyn Mnh Hng trc nm 1975 tt nghip i hc lut khoa Si Gn, sau du hc ti Hoa K, ly bng tin sv Bang Giao Quc Tti i hc Virginia.

GS. Nguyn Mnh Hng. (Hnh: inh Qut/Ngi Vit)

Sau , ng tr v Vit Nam, tng m nhim v tr ThTrng KHoch ca Vit NamCng Ha.

Hin Gio SNguyn Mnh Hng ging dy mn Chnh Tr Hc v Bang Giao Quc T, ngthi l gim c Chng Trnh Nghin Cu ng Dng ti i hc George Mason, Virginia.

Gio sCarl Thayer

Gio sCarl Thayer, chuyn gia nghin cu qun s, hin giv tr Gim c Din nNghin Cu Quc Phng (Defense Studies Forum), Hc Vin Quc Phng ti i hc NewSouth Wales, Canberra, c.


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GS. Carl Thayer. (Hnh: HoangDinhNam/AFP/Getty Images)

ng tng nhiu ln n Vit Nam tham dnhiu hi tho, nghin cu, v l tc gi ca gn400 bi vit nghin cu tnh hnh chnh tr ca cc quc gia Chu - Thi Bnh Dng,trong c Vit Nam.

Mt trong nhng cng trnh nghin cu ca ng trong 4 thp nin qua l vn Bin ng.

nguoi viet online q and a with carl thayer (bilingual)

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