Next Network Light Rail Service Plan

March 2016Board of Directors Meeting

CAC Item #13TAC Item #15PAC Item #13

Existing System

2

Weekday ServiceSanta Teresa – Alum Rock Line: 15 minute all day frequenciesWinchester – Mountain View Line: 15/30 minute peak/off-peak frequenciesAlmaden line – 15 minute all day frequencies

Ridership by Station

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000M

OU

NTA

IN V

IEW

STA

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STA

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STA

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PEN

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Daily Ridership

• Average Weekday ridership in 2015 was approximately 35,000 boardings daily• 61 stations• Top 10 stations have approximately 45% of total Light Rail Ridership• Average Ridership per station: 570 boardings per day

FY2015 Data

Tasman West

Tasman East

North First

Downtown San Jose

HWY 87

HWY 85

Almaden Line

Winchester Corridor

3

2010 Operating Plan Recommendation

Non-Stop ExpressAll Day

Non-Stop Express(Peak Period Only)

• Originally based on 2035 land use predictions

• Reanalyzed with 2017 land use predictions

• More growth in North San Jose• Limited growth in Almaden

Valley• Public concerns about Downtown San

Jose turnback of Winchester Trains• 2010 plan did not assume Levi’s

Stadium

4

Milpitas BART Station

13%

22%

25%

40%

Milpitas BART Mode of Access

Bike/Ped

Bus

Auto

Light Rail

5

Existing Ridership35,000 Daily Boardings

Future Ridership

7

(+1,800)

(+4,500)

(+3,700)

(+1,600)

(+700)

(+1600)

(+1,300)

(+300)

15,000 Additional Boardings

Future HIGH Ridership Potential

8 8

Origin – Destination Pair Ridership Potential

Downtown San Jose to North First Very High

Tasman East to North First Very High

Tasman East to Tasman West Very High

Strongest Travel Markets• BART to Tasman West• Trips to and from

Downtown San Jose • Trips to and from

North First St.

Future MEDIUM Ridership Potential

9 9

Origin – Destination Pair Ridership Potential

Vasona to Downtown San Jose High

Tasman West to North First Medium High

Tasman East to Downtown San Jose Medium High

HWY 85 to Downtown San Jose Medium High

Strongest Travel Markets• BART to Tasman West• Trips to and from

Downtown San Jose • Trips to and from

North First St.

New Modeling Analysis

Almaden Line

Tasman Express

Commuter Express

Vasona LineFocused on • BART to Tasman West connection• To and from Downtown San Jose

connection • To and from North First St.

connection• Express Service on Tasman• Commuter Express on Highway 87• Improving Vasona Line Operations• How to serve Almaden Valley

10

Tasman Express

Tasman Express

11

- Express service would save an average of 4 minutes for trips from Mountain View to Levis Stadium

- Express service is a trade-off between giving some riders faster service and other riders more frequent service

- Modeling analysis found that having an all-stop service to BART would have higher ridership than an express service because it would give more riders a one seat ride to Milpitas BART station

Recommendation:Operate an all stop service from Mountain View to BART and Alum Rock

Commuter Express

Commuter Express

12

- Commuter Express save approximately 4 minutes between Ohlone/Chynoweth and Convention Center

- Averages 620 boardings per day- Approximately 75% of riders of

board between Santa Teresa and Downtown San Jose

- Northbound express trains have very low passenger loads north of Downtown San Jose

Recommendation:Turn Commuter Express trains around in Downtown San Jose

Vasona Line

Vasona Line

13

- High midday ridership despite 30 minute midday frequencies

- We estimated in the future Vasona Line riders will travel to

- Diridon or closer 50% of the time- Downtown San Jose 25% of the time- North First Street 20% of the time- North of Tasman Station 5% of the

time

Recommendation:Improve midday frequencies from 30 minutes to 15 minutes and turns trains around before Mountain View

Final 3 Scenarios

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Bas

e

General Description

Adds Mountain View to Alum Rock Line to Existing Service

Medium changes, most trips would beunchanged

Major changes, many existing trips would be effected

Vasona Line turns back at… Mountain View Old Ironsides or

Mountain View Baypointe

New Tasman Line Alum Rock to Mountain View or Old Ironsides

Alum Rock to Mountain View

Alum Rock to Mountain View

Enh

ance

men

ts

Commuter Express Yes Yes Yes

Tasman Express Yes Yes No

Vasona Line Frequency Yes Yes Yes

Scenario 1 Base

- New Tasman Line connecting Mountain View to Old Ironsides

- No additional changes to Santa Teresa – Alum Rock, Mountain View – Winchester, or Almaden lines

15

Scenario 1+

Commuter Express Enhancement(Peak Period Only)

Tasman Express Enhancement(Peak Period Only)

Enhancements- Express Service between

Mountain View and Old Ironsides in peak periods

- Commuter Express service Downtown San Jose and Santa Teresa

- Increase midday frequencies on Vasona line to 15 minutes

16

Scenario 2 Base

- New Tasman Line connecting Mountain View to Alum Rock

- Winchester Line turns back at Old Ironsides

17

Scenario 2+

Tasman Express Enhancement(Peak Period Only)

Commuter Express Enhancement(Peak Period Only)

18

Enhancements- Express Service between

Mountain View and Old Ironsides in peak periods

- Commuter Express service Downtown San Jose and Santa Teresa

- Increase midday frequencies on Vasona line to 15 minutes

Scenario 3 Base

- New Tasman Line connecting Mountain View to Alum Rock

- Winchester turns back at Baypointe

19

Scenario 3+

Commuter Express Enhancement(Peak Period Only)

20

Enhancements- Commuter Express service

Downtown San Jose and Santa Teresa

- Increase midday frequencies on Vasona line to 15 minutes

Ridership and Operating Costs

Base Scenarios do not include Existing Commuter Express Service on Highway 87Scenarios 1+ and 2+ include all enhancements, Scenario 3+ includes Commuter Express and 15 minute Vasona Line frequency enhancements1Operating cost and hours percentage increases vary because of marginal cost assumptions of additional service2Cost of existing Commuter Express service is $1.0 million

Enhancements

FY2015* No Project

Scenario 1 Base

Scenario1+

Scenario 2 Base

Scenario 2+

Scenario 3 Base

Scenario 3+

HWY 87 Express

Vasona 15 min freq

Tasman Express

Average Weekday Boardings 34,900 49,800 56,600 59,800 58,500 61,600 58,400 60,700 760 1,540 810

Montague Station (BART) 150 4,100 5,800 5,800 6,100 6,100 6,200 6,200 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐

Increase over No Project ‐‐ ‐‐ 14% 20% 19% 24% 19% 21% 2% 3% 2%

Operating hours increase ‐‐ ‐‐ 16% 30% 16% 30% 11% 18% 3% 4% 6%

Annual Operating Cost (in millions) $80  $822 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐

Increase over No Project1 ‐‐ ‐‐ 6.6% 12.3% 6.6% 12.3% 5.0% 7.8% 1.4% 1.5% 2.8%

Light Rail 2017 Operating Plan

Upcoming Schedule

Light Rail Operating Plan Bus Operating PlanJanuary 2016 TPO: Introduction to Next Network Plan (INFO)

February 2016 TPO: Review Draft LRT Operating Plan (INFO) Board: Introduction to Next Network Plan (INFO)

March 2016 Board: Review Draft LRT Operating Plan (INFO)

April 2016 community outreach Board Workshop: Preview Network Alternatives (INFO)

May 2016 community outreach community outreach

June 2016 community outreach community outreach

July 2016 community outreach community outreach

August 2016 TPO: Review Revised LRT Operating Plan (INFO) TPO: Review Network Alternatives (INFO)

September 2016 Board: Review Revised LRT Operating Plan (INFO) Board: Review Network Alternatives (INFO)

October 2016

November 2016 TPO: Review Draft Next Network Plan (INFO)

December 2016 Board: Review Draft Next Network Plan (INFO)

January 2016 community outreach

February 2017 community outreach

March 2017 community outreach

April 2017 TPO: Adopt FY18-19 Budget and Final Next Network Plan (ACTION)

May 2017 Board: Adopt FY18-19 Budget and Final Next Network Plan (ACTION)

Fall 2017 New Service Implementation(will coincide with the opening of BART to Berryessa service)

Questions?