next generation services and user needs

International Telecommunication Union

Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?Geneva, 9-10 July 2003

Next Generation Services Next Generation Services and User Needsand User Needs

Martin PottsMartel

[email protected]

9-10 July 2003 Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?

ITU-T

“There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home”

“640K ought to be enough for anybody”

The Dangers of Predicting the Future

Ken Olsen, President of DEC (1977)

Bill Gates


ITU-T

Collective Awareness

& Dissemination

TopicWorking Groups

Input & Feedback

Mini-Projects

IST

NGNI members

BenchmarkingReports

Roadmaps

Standards

Results

www.ngni.org


ITU-TRoadmap: The Evolution of

Telecommunications Networks

What do we want networks to do ?

What are the factors that influence how networks evolve ?

What trends can be identified ?


ITU-T

What do we want networks to do ?


ITU-TThere are many suggestions of what future networks should do better than they do today (eg. from ETSI, ITU, companies, individuals, ...).

There is no common definition of a “Next Generation Network”, but there is some general agreement that they should support the following service models:

- support an increasingly networked society: -> communication anywhere, anytime, using any medium that is always online

-> seamless interoperability (devices and services are platform-independent: eg. fixed / mobile, and telephone / PDA / PC / Television) …… need for standards


ITU-T

Accessing the Internet - Today’s options

Internet

Access

Points

(IAP) IAP

InternetBackbone

ISPISP

POTSPOTSISDNISDN

OpticalOptical

Cable TVCable TV

xDSLxDSL

Wireless


ITU-T- bring services to customers in a way that is: -> in accordance with the trend to separate the roles of the various stakeholders involved, eg. Service Providers, Network Providers, Content Providers

-> future-proof (the easy incorporation of new services and network technologies)

- support levels of QoS (in terms of delay, jitter, loss, reliability, availability)

- support security

- be simpler/cheaper to operate/maintain/manage

- faster Internet access (where is the bottleneck? … and is the problem really speed or prioritisation?)


ITU-T

What are the factors that influence how networks evolve ?


ITU-T

Evolution Factors

Economic trends

Generaltechnology

advancements

Business

User behaviour andusage trends

Society

Individual technical aspects

Evolution of coreand access networks

Management

Visions &Scenarios

……..

Merging top-down visions/scenarios & bottom–up technical challenges

Technology

development

Protocolsevolution

Architectureand

topology

Evolution of terminals


ITU-T

Evolution Factors

Economic trends

Generaltechnology

advancements

Business


Society



Management

Visions &Scenarios

……..


Technology

development

Protocolsevolution

Architectureand

topology



ITU-T

User Behaviour and Usage Trends- Telecommunications Service Evolution:

Telegraphy

TelexBroadband dataPacket switchingCircuit switchingTelemetryTeletextFaxInternetWebE-mailTelenewspaperTelephonyTeleconferenceVideoconferenceVideotelephonyMobile videophoneGSM, GPRS, UMTSMobile text (SMS)MMSMobile faxWAPMobile dataMobile videotextPagingStereo hi-fi soundColour televisionStereo televisionHDTV

Telephony Fax

Radio

Telex

Television

Data: low speed high speed

Mobile telephony

Colour Television

Digital networks:Packet switchingCircuit switchingOptical fibre

1847 1877 1920 1930 1960 1975 1984 2003

Paging

Videoconference


ITU-T User Behaviour and Usage Trends

- Increasing use of Internet-based services, but demanding more than just Internet access

- Increasing emphasis on mobility and roaming

- Increasing use of peer-to-peer applications and group communication

- End-user content creation

- Less-obtrusive hardware, that exploits the existence of more embedded sensors and communication between embedded devices


ITU-T

User Behaviour and Usage Trends

- Flexibility:- same data to be available on different devices

- terminals and services to be transportable between networks

- a “one-stop shop” for billing

- Services that are integrated, interactive, cost effective (SMS!), easy to use and with filtering features (Ambient Intelligence)

- Higher bandwidths (eg. for entertainment services, gaming, …)

- QoS (availability, reliability, speed, synchronisation, …)

- Security


ITU-T Broadband:

- Internet access capability is doubling every 2 years for no increase in real cost to the end user

- A downstream throughput of 1 Mbit/s is now common for many residential users – a rate which was unimaginable for most people 10 years ago

- A similar increase over the next 10 years is expected (predicted 70% broadband penetration in Western Europe by 2010, up from 10% today)

… however, in parallel to wanting more bandwidth, users are wanting to communicate without being physically wired to the network

Broadband and Mobility


ITU-T Mobility:

- Public GSM access networks have been installed to handle the huge demand for mobile telephony and Internet access, but the bandwidth is low compared with that available from a fixed access line

- GPRS and UMTS promise improvements, and the addition of data to traditional voice services (convergence ?) which is expected to lead to a range of new services

- Ultra Wideband (155Mbit/s)

- Ad-hoc networks

WLAN is already emerging as a serious contender:



ITU-TMobility:- Developed for the private LAN area, WLAN is a simple and

cheap technology that offers a bandwidth that even exceeds what is available on many wireline connections

- WLANs are being installed by network operators to satisfy Internet access in public “hot spots”, thereby blurring the boundary between public and private networks

- WLANs are expected to generate about 10% of the revenue of 2.5/3G systems (Analysys)



ITU-T- The debate on QoS in the Internet has been running for more than 10 years, but only the “easy” solutions are implemented.

Overprovisioning (only a solution for the backbone)

Exploiting the capabilities of the lower layers (MPLS)

? Priorities (DiffServ)

? Explicit signalling (RSVP)

? NSIS

QoS

- Is there a business model ?- Who is willing to pay for it ?- What services do we expect the Internet to carry ?

- The same service used on a different terminal, or transmitted over a different access network, will require different QoS values

- Can it be solved with adaptive applications ?


ITU-T- Users are interested in ever more sophisticated devices that inter-communicate, independent of the current network to which they are attached, but the complexity must be hidden

- NGNs should provide the basis for the transparent provision and discovery of services that can be made available in an ad-hoc manner locally or remote to a dynamic group of customers. The criteria for service discovery can be the physical or network position (Location-Based Services), and can also exploit User Profiling technology in order to allow for subjective and community oriented discovery criteria

Ambient Intelligence


ITU-T- Elaborate (composite) services can be provided to the user via an intelligent service location and configuration mechanism. A single query is translated automatically into a range of service location requests which are in turn resolved. This mechanism will further support the need for context computing and stronger focus on the needs of the customer by resolving service related complexity automatically.

Ambient Intelligence

1.Locate custom erT A XI

T A XI

Custom er

3. Locate/In formtaxi

GPS

O ngoingG et P osition

Service DiscoveryMiddleware

IntegratedNetwork

2. Locate/book hote l

T A XIm ovem ent

“Get me to a hotel room”

O ngoingG ive P osition

Hote l

4 . P ickup Custom er

5. Take C ustom erto hotel


ITU-TUser Behaviour and Usage Trends

Where is the intelligence nowadays ?

- Intelligence at the core is giving way to intelligence

at the edge, due to the performance capabilities of network elements

- enables new services to be added quickly by “anyone” (Internet Model)



Gradual transformation from vertically to horizontally integrated networks and services

- the traditional “one-operator-does-it-all” is giving way to specialist service providers operating on specific network functionality layers (eg. dark fibre providers, local access providers, content providers, roaming brokers, …)



ACTORS SERVICES FUNCTIONS

ServiceUser

ServiceProvider

NetworkCustomer

NetworkProvider

Applications

Advanced/complementaryservices

Basic services

Bearer services

EndUsage

ServiceBrokerage /Value-addedService provision

Network supplyand operation



For more details of the separation of the roles of Service Providers and Network Providers, and how the interaction can be formalised through SLAs, see:

www.cadenus.org


ITU-T

ResourceMediator

(per administrative domain)

Service Provider

AccessMediator

ResourceMediator

(per administrative domain)

Access NetworkProvider

Next AdministrativeDomain

SLA

. AAA

. Directory/yellow pages

. Preferences lists

. Services menu

. User profile

. Terminal types

. Traffic engineering

. Terminal localisation

. Terminal capability

. Network capability

ServiceMediator

ServiceMediator

. AAA

. Presentation

. Subscription

Services

ServicesSLA

SLS

Network Controller(per technology domain)



Backbone NetworkProvider

Service Types

Service Authority

ServiceDirectory

ResourceMediator

per administrative domain)

SLS



Service Providers are also “users”. They require:

- a fast and open service creation platform

- the capability to inform end-users of the services that are available

- QoS guarantees from the network regarding availability, throughput, delay, delay variation (jitter), loss

- security

- the ability to adapt services according to the available network QoS or device type/capabilities


ITU-T

Evolution Factors

Economic trends

Generaltechnology

advancements

Business


Society



Management

Visions &Scenarios

……..


Technology

development

Protocolsevolution

Architectureand

topology



ITU-T Europe: 2000-2001• Overall ARPU decreased

by 30%• Voice ARPU decreasing

Overstocked market• Data ARPU increased by

93%

Europe: 2002-2005• With voice ARPU

diminishing, operators will rely on VAS deployment strategies in order to keep growth

ARPU = Average Revenue Per User Source: “Mobile@Ovum”, July 2002

0

10

20

30

40

50

2H 1

999

1H 2

000

2H 2

000

1Q 2

001

2Q 2

001

3Q 2

001

4Q 2

001

024681012 Total ARPU

€/Month

Data ARPU€/Month

%Data_ARPU/Total_ARPU

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2002 2003 2004 2005

0

5

10

15

20

25 Total ARPU€/Month

Data ARPU€/Month

% DataARPU/TotalARPU

Wireless Market Trends


ITU-T

The Value Network for Mobile Services

Business Models, Societal and Economic/Political Factors


ITU-T

Economic trends

Generaltechnology

advancements

Business


Society



Management

Visions &Scenarios

……..


Technology

development

Protocolsevolution

Architectureand

topology


Evolution Factors


ITU-T

Security

QoS (especially inter-domain)

Terminal proliferation

Mobility

“Always on”

IP: Some Open Issues

Telephony, VoD, IP-VPN Audio/video, broadcast, e-commerce

WWW, File transfer, Games,On-line shopping,

E-mail, etc

Optical network (DWDM)

PSTN/ISDN, MPLS, IP-net, etc

Broadband access

IP

Customer Perspective

IP over ?

Convergence

Encapsulation /Integration

Encapsulation / Convergence


ITU-T

Economic trends

Generaltechnology

advancements

Business


Society



Management

Visions &Scenarios

……..


Technology

development

Protocolsevolution

Architectureand

topology


Evolution Factors


ITU-T Some user behaviour and usage trends have been identified by the EU IST project NGN-Initiative

Some key requirements are for:InteroperabilityConvergence (onto the same terminals)More sophistication (but hiding the complexity)BroadbandMobilityPeer-to-peer (user-generated content)QoSSecurity

Service and network separation will encourage innovative services, but requires standards (see CADENUS project)

Conclusions


ITU-T

next generation services and user needs

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