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NexantThinkingTM
Coal to Chemicals - Viable in a Low Oil-Price Environment?
Brochure May 2015
Special Reports
NexantThinkingTM
Special Reports
Coal to Chemicals - Viable in a Low Oil-Price Environment?
Brochure May 2015
A50801.010.01 Special Reports
www.nexantthinking.com
This Report was prepared by Nexant, Inc. (“Nexant”) and is part of the NexantThinking™ suite. Except where specifically stated otherwise in this
Report, the information contained herein is prepared on the basis of information that is publicly available, and contains no confidential third party
technical information to the best knowledge of Nexant. Aforesaid information has not been independently verified or otherwise examined to determine
its accuracy, completeness or financial feasibility. Neither Nexant, Subscriber nor any person acting on behalf of either assumes any liabilities with
respect to the use of or for damages resulting from the use of any information contained in this Report. Nexant does not represent or warrant that any
assumed conditions will come to pass.
The Report is submitted on the understanding that the Subscriber will maintain the contents confidential except for the Subscriber’s internal use. The
Report should not be reproduced, distributed or used without first obtaining prior written consent by Nexant. Each Subscriber agrees to use reasonable
effort to protect the confidential nature of the Report.
Copyright © by Nexant Inc. 2015. All rights reserved.
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Contents
Section Page
1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 1
1.1 OVERVIEW ............................................................................................................... 1
1.2 BACKGROUND ......................................................................................................... 3
1.3 OBJECTIVE OF THIS STUDY .................................................................................. 5
2 Scope of Work ........................................................................................................................ 6
2.1 OVERVIEW ............................................................................................................... 6
2.1.1 Comparative Economics - Coal versus Naphtha Feedstock........................ 6
2.1.2 Gasification Technologies ............................................................................ 7
2.1.3 Product Technologies................................................................................... 8
2.1.4 Location ........................................................................................................ 8
2.1.5 Year .............................................................................................................. 8
2.1.6 Strategic Considerations .............................................................................. 8
3 Table of Contents ................................................................................................................... 10
4 Approach ................................................................................................................................ 15
5 Qualifications .......................................................................................................................... 16
5.1 GENERAL ................................................................................................................. 16
5.2 SUMMARY OF PROJECTS RELATED TO COAL-TO-CHEMICALS....................... 18
6 Contact Information ................................................................................................................ 21
Figure Page
1.1 Spread of Coal to Olefins vs Crude Oil to Olefins in January 2014 and 2015 ....................... 2
1.2 Net Capital Charges - Spread of Coal to Olefins vs Crude Oil to Olefins in January 2014
and 2015................................................................................................................................. 3
1.3 Chemical Production Potential from Coal .............................................................................. 4
5.1 Nexant Office Locations ......................................................................................................... 16
Table Page
1.1 China MTO/MTP Projects ...................................................................................................... 4
2.1 Polypropylene Cost of Production Estimate ........................................................................... 7
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Section 1 Introduction
1.1 OVERVIEW
Until recently, coal to chemicals was seen as a promising route to diversify China’s slate of chemical
feedstocks to reduce crude oil import reliance and as a way of creating jobs and monetizing abundant
coal reserves in Western China. Spurred by technological advances and cheap coal from Inner
Mongolia, China invested heavily in coal-to-chemical projects between 2003 and 2014. For China, coal
offered a more realistic and readily available starting point to chemicals than the alternative of importing
LNG, LPG, naphtha or crude oil.
The dramatic fall in crude oil prices in late 2014 jolted the global economy and unequivocally altered
investment views in energy and petrochemical markets. Naphtha based petrochemical participants found
new life from a less expensive feedstock, while North American shale oil and gas producers struggled
with high drilling and logistic costs. Similarly in China, coal to chemicals producers found their margins
substantially narrowed to the point of questioning the viability of coal as a starting point for
petrochemicals. Policy shifts by the Chinese government over the past two years, including new
environmental taxes, increased financial charges, new technical guidelines, and policies resulting from a
limited water supply further increase the challenges for the coal to chemicals industry in a low oil-price
world.
The first step in any coal to chemical production technology is using coal to produce synthetic or
synthesis gas (syngas). In early 2014, with Brent crude above $100 per barrel and coal in Mongolia at
$42 per ton, the spread between naphtha feedstock and coal was $850 per ton of olefins. The collapse of
crude oil narrowed the spread significantly to $134 per ton of olefins by early 2015, although coal still
remains a cheaper feedstock route for Chinese olefins production on a cash basis as illustrated in Figure
1.1. While almost all of Chinese coal-to-chemicals (CTO/MTO) projects remain committed as producers
have spent considerable time and resources preparing for these massive olefins and derivatives plants,
there were a few cancellations such as the million tons per annum olefins project1 in Xinjiang, China.
Even if oil prices recover, the decline will have left an imprint of greater volatility and downside risk
recognition.
1 Xinjiang Guanghui Coal Chemical Industry
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Section 1 Introduction
Figure 1.1 Spread of Coal to Olefins vs Crude Oil to Olefins in January 2014 and 2015 (U.S. dollars per ton)
Source: Nexant Analysis
From Figure 1.1, it is evident that coal to olefins conversion consumes twice as much utilities and has
fifteen times the environmental costs as the crude oil feedstock route. Furthermore, Chinese coal
reserves are largely in the Inner Mongolia interior, thus the transportation cost to coastal demand centers
negatively affects the economics. Essentially, the spread between coal and crude oil to olefins production
has narrowed significantly, benefiting European and North American producers, and reducing the
attractiveness of coal to chemical projects in China.
As seen in Figure 1.2, the spread between coal and crude oil to olefins production has narrowed further
when capital costs are included. Consideration of increased financing charges due to policy shifts will
result in additional narrowing of this spread.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Jan-14 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-15
Eastern ChinaNaphtha Cracker
Mine-mouth China(from MTO)
Eastern ChinaNaphtha Cracker
Mine-mouth China(from MTO)
Net Raw Materials Utilities Fixed Costs Environmental Costs Transportation
XLS:
$850 (2014)
$134(2015)
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Section 1 Introduction
Figure 1.2 Net Capital Charges - Spread of Coal to Olefins versus Crude Oil to Olefins in January 2014 and 2015
(U.S. dollars per ton)
1.2 BACKGROUND
Coal gasification is a well-proven technology with a long history of applications ranging from the earliest
uses of coal gas for heating and lighting in urban areas (“town gas”), to the production of synthetic fuels
such as liquid hydrocarbons and synthetic natural gas (SNG) chemicals and most recently to large-scale
IGCC (integrated gasification combined cycle) power generation.
Essentially all of the important first-stage organic petrochemicals were made from coal from the 1900s to
the 1930s. The coke oven industry provided by-product ammonia, ammonium sulfate, benzene, toluene
and phenols. In the fuels and chemicals sector, success was achieved in producing straight chain
hydrocarbons, alcohols, and other organic chemicals from synthesis gas, as exemplified by the work of
Bergius, Fischer and Tropsch and others.
The chemical industry switched almost completely to natural gas and petroleum liquids between 1940
and 1965, driven by their low cost and ready availability. As an example, DuPont started to make
methanol from coal in relatively large amounts in Belle, West Virginia, but quickly shut this unit down
when inexpensive natural gas became available during the early 1950s. The use of coal for the
production of organic chemicals diminished greatly over time as a consequence of both its high capital
cost and environmental concerns regarding by-products produced and the effects of coal
mining/extraction.
China has exhibited increased activity in coal-to-chemicals, initially in coal to ammonia/urea and coal to
calcium carbide-PVC projects. Subsequently, coal-to-methanol and other chemicals (BDO and
derivatives, etc.) became important in China. Methanol plants have become increasingly large, and when
coupled with modern methanol to olefins (MTO)/methanol to propylene (MTP) technology, these plants
were expected to provide China with the opportunity to develop an alternative coal-based olefin/polyolefin
industry. Approximately 22 coal to olefin and methanol to olefin (CTO/MTO) projects have started up or
are underway as of Q1 2015, estimated to add 6.6 million tons of ethylene and 7.9 million tons of
propylene capacity per year between 2015 and 2020 as shown in Table 1.1.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Jan-14 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-15
Eastern ChinaNaphtha Cracker
Mine-mouth China(from MTO)
Eastern ChinaNaphtha Cracker
Mine-mouth China(from MTO)
Net Raw Materials Utilities Fixed Costs
Environmental Costs Transportation DepreciationXLS:
$76 (2015)
$800 (2014)
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Section 1 Introduction
Table 1.1 China MTO/MTP Projects
Company Ethylene Propylene Start-up
Shandong Yangmei Hengtong Chemicals 295 2014
Sinochem Yiye Energy Investment 800 2014
Pucheng Clean Energy Chemical 300 400 2014
Wilson Clean Energy 135 160 2015 or 2016
(Construction
Underway)
Jiutai Energy (Zhungeer) 300 300 2015
Zhengda (Changzhou) New Material 500 500 Q1 2015
Zhejiang Xingxing New Energy 600 Q1 2015
Shanxi Coking 300 300 Q2 2015
Xinjiang Guanghui Coal Chemical Industry 1,000 Cancelled
(2015)
China Coal Energy Yili Coal Electrochemical 300 2016
Jiangsu Sailboat Petrochemical Chemicals 833 2016
Source: ICIS Chemical Business 2015
The list of potential chemicals that can be derived from coal is the same as from gas and petroleum,
given that coal provides both the hydrogen and carbon atoms needed for petrochemical production. A
roadmap of key chemicals from coal is shown in Figure 1.2.
Figure 1.3 Chemical Production Potential from Coal
Methyl Acetate Acetic Anhydride
Power & Steam
Acetate Esters
Fischer-
Tropsch
Liquids
NaphthaAcetic Acid
Waxes
Diesel
Car Fuel
Alpha Olefins
Formaldehyde
Coal/Petcoke Gasification Synthesis Gas Methanol
Town Gas
Acrylonitrile
Hydrogenation
Processes
Ammonium Nitrate
H2
Fuel Cells
Dimethyl Ether
Ammonia
Urea
Distrib.
Co-Generation
Ethylene &
Propylene
Urea/
Ammonium
Nitrate
Ketene
VAM PVA
Diketene &
Derivatives
CO
CO Chemicals
Oxo Chemicals
Acrylic Acid/
Acrylates
Polyolefins
Alpha Olefins
Source: “Eastman Gasification Overview”, Eastman Gasification Services Company, July 19, 2004
(with modifications and additions)
Methyl Acetate Acetic Anhydride
Power & Steam
Acetate Esters
Fischer-
Tropsch
Liquids
NaphthaAcetic Acid
Waxes
Diesel
Car Fuel
Alpha Olefins
Formaldehyde
Coal/Petcoke Gasification Synthesis Gas Methanol
Town Gas
Acrylonitrile
Hydrogenation
Processes
Ammonium Nitrate
H2
Fuel Cells
Dimethyl Ether
Ammonia
Urea
Distrib.
Co-Generation
Ethylene &
Propylene
Urea/
Ammonium
Nitrate
Ketene
VAM PVA
Diketene &
Derivatives
CO
CO Chemicals
Oxo Chemicals
Acrylic Acid/
Acrylates
Polyolefins
Alpha Olefins
Methyl Acetate Acetic Anhydride
Power & Steam
Acetate Esters
Fischer-
Tropsch
Liquids
NaphthaAcetic Acid
Waxes
Diesel
Car Fuel
Alpha Olefins
Formaldehyde
Coal/Petcoke Gasification Synthesis Gas Methanol
Town Gas
Acrylonitrile
Hydrogenation
Processes
Ammonium Nitrate
H2
Fuel Cells
Dimethyl Ether
Ammonia
Urea
Distrib.
Co-Generation
Ethylene &
Propylene
Urea/
Ammonium
Nitrate
Ketene
VAM PVA
Diketene &
Derivatives
CO
CO Chemicals
Oxo Chemicals
Acrylic Acid/
Acrylates
Polyolefins
Alpha Olefins
Source: “Eastman Gasification Overview”, Eastman Gasification Services Company, July 19, 2004
(with modifications and additions)
Q205_71440.002.03.vsd/Figure 1.5
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Section 1 Introduction
1.3 OBJECTIVE OF THIS STUDY
The study will give subscribers a solid grasp of the state of development of coal to chemicals
technologies, including an update on the status of such technologies as currently practiced in China. In
particular, Nexant will consider the viability of coal to chemicals technology in China in a low oil price
environment. The report will address the main technological pathways to coal-to-chemical conversion
and the relative competitiveness (economics) of coal to chemical routes as compared to the common
petrochemical route from petroleum or natural gas. The study will provide a snapshot of comparative
economic analysis of petrochemicals via the oil/natural gas versus coal to chemicals economics on a
mine-mouth basis.
Building on the previous 2013 study on coals to chemicals, this study will address policy shifts impacting
the Chinese coal to chemicals industry along with their effect on financial return. The study will also
include a wider coverage of the leading (i.e. improved effective conversion rate) CTO processes
available, as well as an analysis of capital costs and their effect on competitiveness.
The report will be a valuable resource for investors, marketers, and petrochemical companies that have
already invested or looking to invest in the coal to chemicals industry. The report will also provide insight
to other chemical producers into the shifting competitiveness of coal based chemicals in a low-priced oil
environment. The key questions the study will address include:
What are the leading and effective coal to chemical technologies available?
How does the changing spread between coal and crude affect the relative production economics
of coal to olefins in China?
How competitive are the coal to chemical routes compared to competing petrochemical/natural
gas routes in a cheap oil scenario?
How will the new environmental policy shifts in China affect economics and returns for these
processes?
What will be the impact of the new technical guidelines in China on the competitiveness of these
processes?
What will be the impact of changes in delivery infrastructure on delivered cost of chemicals?
How will the increasing financing charges in China impact cost of capital and competitiveness of
new coal to chemical projects?
This prospectus describes Nexant’s “Coal to Chemicals – Viable in a Low Oil-Price Environment?” multi-
client study, provides the proposed report Table of Contents, the methodology to be employed, and
Nexant’s qualifications to perform such a study. The study is targeted to be published at the end of Q3
2015.
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Section 2 Scope of Work
2.1 OVERVIEW
The objective of this multi-client study is to build on Nexant’s Special Report – “Coal to Chemicals:
Visiting and Revisiting the future” published in November 2013. The study will profile and assess the
state of technology as related to coal to chemicals production and include cost of production economics
for selected coal to chemical plants located in China. The study will further compare the economics of
petrochemical versus coal to chemicals production especially in the current situation of low crude oil
prices. The coal to chemicals plants will be pro-forma plants located at the mine mouth in an interior coal
rich region in China (i.e., Inner Mongolia). Economics will also be prepared for Leader plants that use
naphtha feedstock and serve the Chinese market for the same products. The two sets of economics will
be compared on a landed (port) “Coastal China” basis which is representative of the primary product
markets in China.
2.1.1 Comparative Economics - Coal versus Naphtha Feedstock
Leader cost of production economics are to be provided for each of the coal to chemical technologies
noted below (using one representative coal gasification technology). Comparative economics will also be
provided for one leading petrochemical route for each of the below mentioned products as follows:
Methanol (imported from the Middle East, natural gas)
Ammonia (China, natural gas)
Urea (China, natural gas)
Ammonium nitrate (China, natural gas)
MEG (two analyses)
- imported from the Middle East, integrated with an ethane cracker
- imported from Taiwan using merchant ethylene
MTO/Polyolefins (two analyses for injection molding HDPE):
- imported from the Middle East, integrated with an ethane cracker
- imported from Korea using merchant ethylene
PP (Coastal China, merchant propylene, General Purpose homopolymer PP)
Aromatics (Coastal China, pygas extraction)
Acetic Acid (imported methanol and natural gas)
Vinyl acetate (imported from Korea, made with merchant ethylene)
PVC (imported VCM)
Butanediol (via n-butane, coastal China)
Acrylic acid (via merchant propylene; Coastal China)
Acrylonitrile (via merchant propylene; Coastal China)
Ethanol (via ethylene hydration, merchant ethylene Coastal China)
An illustrative cost of production analysis is shown in Table 2.1.
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Section 2 Scope of Work
Table 2.1 Polypropylene Cost of Production Estimate US Gulf Coast
2.1.2 Gasification Technologies
The study will review gasification technology associated with chemicals production and discuss the
challenges and opportunities such technologies face. Nexant will describe and review the primary
technologies for coal gasification and investigate recent developments that are important from both cost
and environmental perspectives. Nexant will review the following gasification technologies:
Fixed-bed reactors
Fluidized-bed reactors
Entrained-flow reactors
CAPITAL COST MILLION U.S. $
Plantstart-up 2011 Inside BatteryLimits(ISBL) 113.20
Outside Batter Limits (OSBL) 94.10
Location Total Plant Capital 207.30
Capacity 400 thousand tons per year Other Project Costs (OPC) 51.83
882 millions lbs per year Total Project Investment 259.13
Operating rate 100 percent Working capital 64.53
Throughput 400 thousand tons per year Total Capital Employed 323.66
UNITS PRICE ANNUAL
Per Ton U.S. $/ U.S. $ COST U.S.$ U.S. $
PRODUCTION COST SUMMARY Product Unit Per Ton millions Per Lb
RAW MATERIALS Propylene ton 1.0023 1,958.00 1,962.50 785.00
Hydrogen ton 0.0001 7,016.00 0.70 0.28
Extruder Additives ton 1.0000 11.00 11.00 4.40
Catalysts & Other Chemicals U.S. $ 1.0000 11.00 11.00 4.40
TOTAL RAW MATERIALS 1,985.21 794.08 0.90
BYPRODUCT CREDITS - -
NET RAW MATERIALS 1,985.21 794.08 0.90
UTILITIES - -
Cooling Water kiloton 0.0550 27.87 1.53 0.61
Electrical Energy MWh 0.2549 52.13 13.29 5.32
Inert gas Nm³ 28.9900 0.07 2.03 0.81
Process Water ton 0.0002 322.42 0.06 0.03
Steam (high pressure) ton 0.0320 18.19 0.58 0.23
Steam (medium pressure) ton 0.0080 16.14 0.13 0.05
Steam (low pressure) ton 0.0800 15.89 1.27 0.51
TOTAL UTILITIES 18.90 7.56 0.01
NET RAW MATERIALS & UTILITIES 2,004.10 801.64 0.91
VARIABLE COST 2,004.10 801.64 0.91
DIRECT FIXED COSTS Labor 23 employees 50,677 U.S. $ 2.91 1.17
Foremen 4 employees 57,522 U.S. $ 0.58 0.23
Supervisor 1 employees 69,410 U.S. $ 0.17 0.07
Mainteace, Material &Labor 2 % of ISBL 5.66 2.26
Direct Overhead 45 % Labor & Supervision 1.65 0.66
TOTAL DIRECT FIXED COSTS 10.97 4.39 0.00
ALLOCATED FIXED COSTS General Plant Overhead 60 % Direct Fixed Costs 6.58 2.63
Insurance, PropertyT ax 1 % Total Plant Capital 5.18 2.07
Environmental 0 % Total Plant Capital - -
TOTAL ALLOCATED FIXED COSTS 11.77 4.71 0.01
TOTAL FIXED COSTS 22.74 9.09 0.01
TOTAL CASH COST 2,026.84 810.74 0.92
Depreciation @ 10 % for ISBL & OPC 5 % for OSBL 53.02 21.21 0.02
COST OF PRODUCTION 2,079.86 831.94 0.94
Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) @ 10% 80.91 32.37 0.04
COST OF PRODUCTION + ROCE 2,160.77 864.31 0.98
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Section 2 Scope of Work
Leader economics for each of the three technology types will be developed using a mine-mouth China
basis.
2.1.3 Product Technologies
This study will further examine the technologies for coal to chemicals by reviewing and evaluating the
processes and economics for the production of major petrochemicals, including:
Methanol (from coal syngas)
Ammonia (from coal syngas)
Urea (from coal syngas)
Ammonium nitrate (from coal syngas)
MEG (from coal syngas)
MTO/Polyolefins (via methanol from coal syngas; Injection Molding HDPE as the polyolefin)
MTP/PP (via methanol from coal syngas; General Purpose Homopolymer PP)
Acetic Acid (via methanol from coal syngas)
Aromatics (via methanol from coal syngas)
Vinyl acetate (via acetylene from calcium carbide)
VCM/PVC (via acetylene from calcium carbide; suspension PVC)
Butanediol (via acetylene from calcium carbide)
Acrylic acid (via acetylene from calcium carbide)
Acrylonitrile (via acetylene hydrocyanation)
Ethanol (Celanese technology)
For the derivative units (i.e., HDPE), Nexant will select a Leading technology typical of that utilized in
China.
2.1.4 Location
Cost of production economics will be developed for Mine-mouth China (i.e., a coal rich region such as
Inner Mongolia) as well as for Coastal China using coal as a starting feedstock. Comparative economics
will be prepared for conventional petrochemical routes for each product listed above. Landed economics
will be prepared in cases where the traditional petrochemical routes are not typically practiced in China
(i.e., for methanol from natural gas). All comparisons will be on a Coastal China port basis, meaning that
the Mine-mouth economics will include domestic freight and logistics, while imports include logistics,
freight and any tariff or duty.
2.1.5 Year
Cost of production economics will be prepared for the first half of 2015 on a pro-forma basis. This will be
compared to full year 2020 forecast using Nexant’s most current raw material and other pricing forecasts
for high, medium and low crude oil price scenarios.
2.1.6 Strategic Considerations
The use of coal as a source of carbon for organic chemicals is technically viable and is being actively
developed primarily in China. A key deliverable of this study is the evaluation of the economic
competitiveness of coal versus conventional feedstocks under the new paradigm of cheap oil. Longer
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Section 2 Scope of Work
term, the use of coal is expected to have competitive pressures due to coal’s environmental footprint such
as the greenhouse effect and pollution which governments increasingly measure. Nexant will include a
brief discussion of the strategic issues, as relevant to China, associated with coal use in this study.
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Section 3 Table of Contents
Section
1 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................. 1-1
1.1 OVERVIEW ............................................................................................................... 1-1
1.2 ECONOMICS ............................................................................................................ 1-3
1.3 COAL TO CHEMICALS STRATEGY ........................................................................ 1-5
1.3.1 Drivers for the Adoption of Coal to Chemicals ............................................. 1-5
1.3.2 Strategic Implications of This Study ............................................................. 1-6
2 Introduction........................................................................................................................... 2-1
2.1 OVERVIEW ............................................................................................................... 2-1
2.2 STRATEGIC DRIVERS FOR THE GROWTH OF COAL TO CHEMICALS
PROCESSES ............................................................................................................ 2-1
2.2.1 China ............................................................................................................ 2-1
2.2.2 Rest of World ................................................................................................ 2-3
2.3 OIL PRICE SCENARIOS AND SPREAD TO COAL COMPARISON ....................... 2-4
2.4 GENERAL ASSESSMENT OF COAL TO CHEMICALS BREAKEVEN ................... 2-5
2.5 SCOPE OF THIS REPORT....................................................................................... 2-6
3 Coal Gasification Technologies .......................................................................................... 3-1
3.1 OVERVIEW ............................................................................................................... 3-1
3.2 COAL CHARACTERISTICS AFFECTING GASIFICATION ..................................... 3-9
3.3 PROCESS TECHNOLOGY....................................................................................... 3-9
3.3.1 GE Energy (Chevron Texaco/GE) Entrained-Flow Gasifier ......................... 3-10
3.3.2 E-GAS (ConocoPhillips) Entrained-Flow Gasifier ........................................ 3-11
3.3.3 Shell Entrained-Flow Gasifier ....................................................................... 3-13
3.3.4 Lurgi Dry-Ash Gasifier .................................................................................. 3-13
3.3.5 British Gas/Lurgi Moving-Bed Gasifier ......................................................... 3-16
3.3.6 Prenflo Entrained-Bed Gasifier .................................................................... 3-16
3.3.7 Noell Entrained-Flow Gasifier ...................................................................... 3-16
3.3.8 High-Temperature Winkler Gasifier .............................................................. 3-16
3.3.9 KRW Fluidized-Bed Gasifier ........................................................................ 3-17
3.3.10 Summary of Gasification Technology Characteristics ................................. 3-17
4 Coal to Acetylene Technology ............................................................................................ 4-1
4.1 OVERVIEW ............................................................................................................... 4-1
4.2 PROCESS TECHNOLOGY....................................................................................... 4-2
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Section 3 Table of Contents
4.2.1 Calcium Carbide Processes ......................................................................... 4-2
4.2.2 Partial Oxidation Processes ......................................................................... 4-10
4.2.3 Acetylene Recovery from Steam Crackers .................................................. 4-18
4.2.4 Hüls Electric Arc Technology ....................................................................... 4-23
5 Conversion Technologies ................................................................................................... 5-1
5.1 OVERVIEW ............................................................................................................... 5-1
5.2 METHANOL (FROM COAL SYNGAS) ..................................................................... 5-2
5.2.1 Chemistry ..................................................................................................... 5-2
5.2.2 Process Description ..................................................................................... 5-3
5.3 AMMONIA (FROM COAL SYNGAS) ........................................................................ 5-8
5.3.1 Chemistry ..................................................................................................... 5-8
5.3.2 Process Description ..................................................................................... 5-8
5.4 UREA (FROM COAL SYNGAS) ............................................................................... 5-10
5.4.1 Chemistry ..................................................................................................... 5-10
5.4.2 Process Description ..................................................................................... 5-11
5.5 MEG (FROM COAL SYNGAS) ................................................................................. 5-14
5.5.1 Process Chemistry ....................................................................................... 5-15
5.5.2 Process Design and Operation .................................................................... 5-17
5.6 METHANOL TO OLEFINS (VIA METHANOL FROM COAL SYNGAS) ................... 5-22
5.6.1 UOP/Hydro Advanced MTO Process ........................................................... 5-22
5.6.2 Lurgi MTP® Process .................................................................................... 5-29
5.6.3 Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics (DICP) DMTO Process ...................... 5-36
5.6.4 Sinopec SMTO Process ............................................................................... 5-37
5.6.5 FMTP Process .............................................................................................. 5-38
5.6.6 Market Share of Licensors ........................................................................... 5-39
5.7 ACETIC ACID (VIA METHANOL FROM COAL SYNGAS) ....................................... 5-40
5.7.1 Chemistry ..................................................................................................... 5-40
5.7.2 Process Description ..................................................................................... 5-43
5.8 VINYL ACETATE (VIA ACETYLENE FROM CALCIUM CARBIDE) ........................ 5-46
5.8.1 Chemistry ..................................................................................................... 5-46
5.8.2 Process Description ..................................................................................... 5-46
5.9 VCM (VIA ACETYLENE FROM CALCIUM CARBIDE) ............................................. 5-49
5.9.1 Chemistry ..................................................................................................... 5-49
5.9.2 Process Description ..................................................................................... 5-50
5.10 BUTANEDIOL (VIA ACETYLENE FROM CALCIUM CARBIDE) .............................. 5-52
5.10.1 Chemistry ..................................................................................................... 5-52
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5.10.2 Process Description ..................................................................................... 5-54
5.11 ACRYLIC ACID (VIA ACETYLENE FROM CALCIUM CARBIDE) ........................... 5-58
5.11.1 Chemistry ..................................................................................................... 5-58
5.11.2 Process Description ..................................................................................... 5-59
5.12 ACRYLONITRILE (VIA ACETYLENE FROM CALCIUM CARBIDE) ........................ 5-61
5.12.1 Chemistry ..................................................................................................... 5-61
5.12.2 Process Description ..................................................................................... 5-61
5.13 ETHANOL (CELANESE TCX TECHNOLOGY) ........................................................ 5-65
5.13.1 Chemistry ..................................................................................................... 5-65
5.13.2 Process Description ..................................................................................... 5-66
6 Economics ............................................................................................................................ 6-1
6.1 BASIS OF ECONOMICS ........................................................................................... 6-1
6.2 METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................................... 6-1
6.2.1 Cost of Production Terminology ................................................................... 6-1
6.2.2 Location Factors ........................................................................................... 6-2
6.2.3 Plants Considered ........................................................................................ 6-3
6.3 FEEDSTOCK PRICES .............................................................................................. 6-4
6.3.1 Gas Prices .................................................................................................... 6-5
6.3.2 Coal Price in China ....................................................................................... 6-6
6.3.3 Corn Price in China ...................................................................................... 6-7
6.4 SHIPPING & TARIFF COSTS ................................................................................... 6-8
6.4.1 Shipping Costs ............................................................................................. 6-9
6.4.2 Tariff ............................................................................................................. 6-10
6.5 COAL-BASED CHEMICAL PRODUCTION – MINE-MOUTH CHINA ...................... 6-11
6.5.1 Methanol (from Coal Syngas) ...................................................................... 6-12
6.5.2 Ammonia (from Coal Syngas) ...................................................................... 6-13
6.5.3 Urea (from Coal Syngas) ............................................................................. 6-15
6.5.4 Ammonium Nitrate (from Coal Syngas) ....................................................... 6-17
6.5.5 MEG (from Coal Syngas) ............................................................................. 6-19
6.5.6 HDPE – Injection Molding (Integrated with Ethylene via MTO) ................... 6-21
6.5.7 Polypropylene – General Purpose Homopolymer (Integrated with
Propylene via MTP) ...................................................................................... 6-25
6.5.8 Acetic Acid (via Methanol from Coal Syngas) .............................................. 6-27
6.5.9 Vinyl Acetate (via Acetylene from Calcium Carbide) ................................... 6-29
6.5.10 PVC (via Acetylene/VCM from Calcium Carbide) ........................................ 6-31
6.5.11 Butanediol (via Acetylene from Calcium Carbide) ....................................... 6-33
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6.5.12 Acrylic Acid (via Acetylene from Calcium Carbide) ...................................... 6-35
6.5.13 Acrylonitrile (via Acetylene Hydrocyanation) ................................................ 6-37
6.5.14 Ethanol (Celanese Technology) ................................................................... 6-39
6.6 COMPARATIVE ECONOMICS TO NAPHTHA – COASTAL CHINA ....................... 6-41
6.6.1 Methanol ....................................................................................................... 6-41
6.6.2 Ammonia ...................................................................................................... 6-41
6.6.3 Urea .............................................................................................................. 6-42
6.6.4 Ammonium Nitrate ........................................................................................ 6-43
6.6.5 MEG ............................................................................................................. 6-44
6.6.6 HDPE – Injection Molding ............................................................................ 6-45
6.6.7 Polypropylene – General Purpose Homopolymer ........................................ 6-46
6.6.8 Acetic Acid .................................................................................................... 6-47
6.6.9 Vinyl Acetate ................................................................................................ 6-48
6.6.10 PVC .............................................................................................................. 6-49
6.6.11 Butanediol .................................................................................................... 6-50
6.6.12 Acrylic Acid ................................................................................................... 6-51
6.6.13 Acrylonitrile ................................................................................................... 6-52
6.6.14 Ethanol ......................................................................................................... 6-53
6.7 CONCLUSIONS ........................................................................................................ 6-54
7 Strategic Implications .......................................................................................................... 7-1
7.1 COMPETITIVENESS ................................................................................................ 7-1
7.1.1 Methanol ....................................................................................................... 7-1
7.1.2 Ammonia, Urea, and Ammonium Nitrate ..................................................... 7-2
7.1.3 MEG ............................................................................................................. 7-2
7.1.4 Olefins and Polyolefins ................................................................................. 7-3
7.1.5 Acetic Acid .................................................................................................... 7-3
7.1.6 Vinyl Acetate ................................................................................................ 7-4
7.1.7 PVC .............................................................................................................. 7-4
7.1.8 1,4-BDO ....................................................................................................... 7-5
7.1.9 Acrylic Acid and Acrylonitrile ........................................................................ 7-5
7.1.10 Ethanol ......................................................................................................... 7-5
7.2 SENSITIVITIES TO COAL PRICE ............................................................................ 7-6
7.3 SENSITIVITIES TO COAL VERSUS NAPHTHA SPREAD ...................................... 7-7
7.4 FUTURE POLICY CHALLENGES ............................................................................ 7-8
7.4.1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................... 7-9
7.4.2 NEW ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY & LIMITED WATER SUPPLY ............... 7-10
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7.4.3 INCREASING FINANCING CHARGES ....................................................... 7-11
7.4.4 NEW TECHNICAL GUIDELINES ................................................................. 7-12
7.4.5 IMPACT OF NEW GOVERNMENT POLICY ON COSTS ............................ 7-13
Appendix Page
A Cost of Production Estimates ............................................................................................. A-1
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Section 4 Approach
The evaluations of conventional technology will be based on Nexant’s in-house and published information
regarding process technology, augmented by contacts with licensors, engineering contractors and other
experts in the industry. The evaluations of developing technology will be “built up” from a review of
patents, public domain information, and discussions with technology development companies and
engineering contractors.
Nexant uses proprietary and commercial state-of-the-art software tools to develop the technology and
economic estimates. These are well established, state-of-the-art engineering tools in the chemical
process industry and are used by major engineering contractors.
The economic evaluations are designed to approximate typical regional costs of production based on
capital costs that are appropriate for “factored estimates”. They do not reflect specific site issues, but are
a reasonable representation of the subject countries/regions.
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Section 5 Qualifications
5.1 GENERAL
Nexant uses multidisciplinary project teams drawn from the ranks of our international staff of engineers,
chemists, economists and financial professionals, and from other Nexant groups to respond to the
requirements of each assignment. Most of the consulting staff possesses credentials in both scientific
and commercial disciplines plus substantial industrial experience. The collective talents of our staff are
strategically located and closely linked throughout the world, resulting in valuable insights gained through
a variety of perspectives.
Nexant is an international consultancy and is dedicated to assisting businesses within the global energy,
chemical, plastics, and process industries by providing incisive, objective, results-oriented management
consulting. Over four decades of significant activity translates into an effective base of knowledge and
resources for addressing the complex dynamics of specialized marketplaces. By assisting companies in
developing and reviewing their business strategies, in planning and implementing new projects and
products, diversification and divestiture endeavors and other management initiatives, Nexant helps clients
increase the value of their businesses. Additionally, we advise financial firms, vendors, utilities,
government agencies and others interested in issues and trends affecting industry segments and
individual companies.
The Nexant Group was formed as an independent global consulting company in 2000, combining a
number of companies that had a long history of providing consultancy services to the chemical and
refining-related industries. Nexant’s experience covers all aspects of project development relating to
major refinery, petrochemical, and polymer investments, ranging from grassroots plants to revamps of
existing process units. Nexant’s key offices serving the petrochemical and downstream oil sectors are
located in New York, Houston, London, Bangkok and Bahrain, and locations for other offices are shown in
Figure 5.1.
Figure 5.1 Nexant Office Locations
Headquarters Main Offices
Representative Offices
San FranciscoWashington, DC
White Plains
LondonFrankfurt
Bahrain
TokyoSeoul
Shanghai
Singapore
Kuala LumpurBangkok
Buenos Aires
La PazRio de Janeiro
Project Offices
New Delhi
Pretoria
Abuja
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Section 5 Qualifications
From major multinationals to locally based firms and governmental entities, our clients look to us for
expert judgment in solving compelling business and technical problems and in making critical decisions.
Nexant’s clients include most of the world’s leading oil and chemical companies, financial institutions, and
many national and regional governments. Nexant, Inc. is active in most of the industrialized countries of
the world, as well as in most of the developing areas including the Middle East, Africa, and East and
Southeast Asia.
Major annual subscription programs are:
Process Evaluation/Research Planning (PERP)
Petroleum & Petrochemical Economics (PPE)
Polyolefin Planning Service (POPS)
The PERP program covers technology, commercial trends, and economics applicable to the chemical
industry. The program has more than 40 subscribers, including most of the major international chemical
companies. Many of the processes to be analyzed in this multi-client study have been assessed in the
PERP program.
The PPE program provides historic and forecast analysis of the profitability, competitive position and
supply/demand trends of the global petroleum and petrochemical industry. The program includes
capacity listings and analysis, global supply, demand and trade balances, profitability, competitiveness,
and price analysis and projections for all the major petrochemical value chains. The PPE program is
supported by an internet-based planning and forecasting tool that provides online access to the database
behind the reports of the PPE program.
The POPS program provides reports on the global polyethylene and polypropylene industry. It is
recognized globally as the benchmark source for detailed information and analysis on current
commercial, technical and economic developments in the polyolefins industry. Coverage includes:
capacity listing and analysis, detailed consumption, supply/demand, trade, operating rates, price
forecasts, technological developments, new products, inter-material substitution and regional
competitiveness.
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Section 5 Qualifications
5.2 SUMMARY OF PROJECTS RELATED TO COAL-TO-CHEMICALS
COAL TO CHEMICALS – VISITING AND REVISITING THE FUTURE – The objective of this
multi-client study completed by Nexant was to profile and assess the state of technology as
related to coal to chemicals production, as well as benchmark the competitiveness of coal to
chemicals technologies vis-à-vis conventional processes. The study included cost of production
economics for selected pro-forma coal to chemical plants located at the mine-mouth in the interior
coal rich region in China. The study also included economics for conventional processes for
leader plants serving Chinese markets to provide comparative economics.
SYNTHETIC FUEL CAPITAL AND PRODUCTION COSTS -- Nexant performed this study for the
U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) as input to their assessment of the costs and benefits of
flexible and alternative fuel use in the U.S. transportation sector. Nexant reviewed state-of-the-art
coal liquefaction technology and developed production cost estimates for producing synthetic
crude and then upgrading the syncrude to a gasoline product
CHEMICALS FROM COAL AND SHALE FEEDSTOCKS -- Recognizing the eventual importance
of coal and shale resources in replacing gas and petroleum, this study examined the various
technologies that could be used to produce feedstocks and chemicals. Three separate potential
implementation cases were treated in detail: Economic, By-product, and "National Need." The
production of synthetic fuels, olefins and aromatics and their derivatives from coal and shale were
projected. A large number of patent references and flowsheets are included in the study, which
also reviewed the chemical implications of synthetic fuels programs in the United States and
elsewhere. There is also a section on utilization of U.S. tar sands resources
SYNTHESIS GAS (FUTURE SOURCES) -- This report reviewed the technology for production of
synthesis gas (H2, CO mixtures) from a number of sources. Most emphasis was devoted to coal
and biomass (municipal solid waste and wood) gasification and new gasification technology. The
report discussed downstream processing requirements and examined coal and biomass
properties and their impact upon gasifier design. The economics of producing industrial fuel gas
(gasifier effluent after acid gas removal) via different routes were compared to the direct use of
natural gas and low sulfur fuel oil
HYDROGEN-SYNTHESIS GAS STUDY -- Nexant completed a Multiclient study on the
production of hydrogen and synthesis gas from heavy oils and coal. The objective of this study
was to analyze the effects on the U.S. natural gas shortage on that portion of the petrochemical
industry dependent upon natural gas as a feedstock, with particular emphasis on ammonia,
methanol, and hydrogen-based chemicals. The study included a section on comparative costs
for all hydrocarbon feedstocks from natural gas to coal
WEST GERMAN COAL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT/COAL GASIFICATION -- West
German companies have undertaken a massive effort to update their technologies to meet motor
fuels and chemical requirements from indigenous and imported coals. An unusually productive
marriage of government and private money, deployed in pilot plants located in chemical and
energy complexes, is steadily advancing the state of the art in West Germany. Promising United
States technologies are also being considered and improved. This study reviewed and analyzed
the individual programs for their merit and impact on synthetic fuels and coal-based chemicals
projects in the industrialized countries
EVALUATION OF COAL BASED AMMONIA/METHANOL PROJECT -- Nexant developed the
overall facilities concept and developed capital cost estimates for this project. Lurgi and Koppers-
Totzek gasifiers were studied in detail. Internal steam and power balances were developed and
the optimal synthesis gas processing sequence was developed
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EVALUATION OF COAL/NATURAL GAS BASED METHANOL/POWER -- Nexant developed
the overall facilities concept and capital cost estimates for an integrated complex employing
"second generation" coal gasification, steam/methane reforming and combined cycle power
generation technologies for the co-production of methanol and power. Relative coal and natural
gas consumption was based on producing a stoichiometrically balanced methanol synthesis gas
from coal-based hydrogen deficient and natural gas based carbon deficient synthesis gases
COAL TAR CHEMICALS -- In response to a Japanese company's request for an analysis of coal
tar chemicals, Nexant conducted a study of U.S. and West European markets/applications and
evaluated the technology for four basic coal tar chemicals and specific hydrogenated derivatives.
The compounds studied included tetralin, biphenyl, acenaphthene, phenanthrene, and
hydrogenated derivatives of acenaphthene and phenanthrene. The technology review covered
all aspects of the chemistry of these materials as well as all applications and developments
worldwide
IMPACT OF COAL CONVERSION PLANTS ON AROMATICS -- For a U.S. chemical company,
Nexant assessed the economic feasibility of aromatics recovery from byproducts streams of coal
gasification and coal liquefaction plants. Production technology and economics are provided for
benzene, toluene, phenol, cresol, xylenol, and coal derived naphtha
SMOKELESS FUELS FROM COAL -- For a specialty fuel producer, Nexant identified and
characterized methods for producing smokeless briquettes that met international standards and
identified potential binders that could be used with existing equipment to produce smokeless
briquettes that could be used for export. Binders studied included: coal tar pitch, petroleum resin,
coal and starch
MARKETING ASSESSMENTS OF COAL PRODUCTS/BYPRODUCTS -- Nexant, under contract
to Tri-State Synfuels Company (a partnership between Texas Eastern Synfuels Inc. and Texas
Gas Synfuel Corporation) examined in detail the marketability of products from a Lurgi/Fischer-
Tropsch coal-based facility being considered for Henderson, Kentucky. The coal conversion
facility was being evaluated by Tri-State under a cooperative funding agreement with the U.S.
Department of Energy. The products from the plant included high Btu substitute natural gas
(SNG) liquid transportation and heating fuels, and a wide range of chemical products and
byproducts. Nexant analyzed the general eight-state region surrounding the proposed plant.
Recommendations and observations were made relating to possible changes in the originally
envisioned slate of products that might improve the project's revenue generation capability.
Future product prices and values were forecast, based on Nexant's prevailing long-term
prognosis of energy, petroleum and petrochemical demands. Nexant performed two similar
market analysis studies for New York Power Authority (NYPA). One involved a proposed 600
MW coal gasification combined cycle power plant considered for the Buffalo area. Nexant
analyzed current and future markets for the fuels and chemicals (including synthesis gas
derivatives) that could be manufactured in the complex. The second study was for a coal
gasification plant being evaluated by NYPA for the South Bronx. Products considered for this
plant included medium-Btu gas (and potential products) steam, sulfur, carbon dioxide and
industrial gases (oxygen, nitrogen and argon)
VALUE OF COED PROCESS COAL-DERIVED LIQUIDS IN A PETROLEUM REFINERY -- This
study analyzed the value of liquids produced in a plant designed to make synthetic crude oil from
coal
VALUE OF LIQUIDS PRODUCED FROM COAL IN A COG (COAL, OIL GAS) REFINERY --
This study, for the Pittsburgh & Midway Coal Mining Company, determined the value of coal-
derived liquids in petroleum refineries
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Section 5 Qualifications
COAL-METHANOL SLURRY PREFEASIBILITY STUDY -- This study analyzed the economic
viability of using coal-methanol slurry fuels in Malaysia
COAL-LIQUID MIXTURE -- Assistance was provided to the U.S. Synthetic Fuels Corp., on oil,
water and methanol coal mixture technologies, economics and markets in regard to defining the
scope for a planned solicitation
COAL MINE ASSETS APPRAISAL -- Certain coal mining equipment (mobile and fixed) and
systems were evaluated and appraised in support of a lease financing
EVALUATION OF COAL TO SYNTHETIC GASOLINE PROJECT -- This project compared the
attractiveness of gasoline production from coal derived methanol via the Mobil MTG (methanol-to-
gasoline) process, to the economics of direct coal liquefaction as well as coal based methyl fuel
production
CHEMICALS FROM COAL AND SHALE -- This study was performed under an RANN grant by
the Office of Energy R&D Policy, NSF. The objectives of this study were: estimate feedstock
demands for major organic chemicals; gauge the probable timing as to when chemical feedstock
demands will constitute an unreasonably large fraction of conventional hydrocarbon sources;
identify the potential technologies for (a) transformation of coal and shale building blocks to
primary organic chemical building blocks or feedstocks, and (b) synthesis of current
"petrochemicals" from such coal and shale-derived building blocks; define research and
development strategies and a related program to assure that any conversion of the organic
chemical industry to coal and shale would be based upon available and the most economically
possible technology
SYNTHESIS GAS FOR CHEMICALS -- This Multiclient report dealt with the applicability of emerging synthesis gas based routes to chemicals compared to traditional production methods. The synthesis gas based routes were analyzed based on the economics of large-scale production of synthesis gas from coal
COAL TO UREA PROJECT EVALUATION -- This report for LGI International provides an evaluation for the market and profitability of coal based methanol and derivatives production.
MARKET ASSESSMENT FOR COAL TO CHEMICAL COMPLEX – This study for Worley Parsons and InterRAO is part of a feasibility assessment ranking for a Russian coal gasification project. The assessment recommends chemicals that might be produced based on production of methyl, incorporating market and competitive factors, but not technology or cash flow.
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Section 6 Contact Information
AMERICAS
Nexant, Inc.
44 South Broadway, 4th Floor
White Plains, NY 10601-4425
U.S.A.
Attn: Vai Ravindran
Consultant
Tel: + 1-914-609-0384
Fax: + 1-914-609-0399
Email: [email protected]
EUROPE
Nexant Limited
1 King's Arms Yard, 1st Floor
London EC2R 7AF
United Kingdom
Attn: Anna Ibbotson
Principal
Or
Attn: Heidi Junker Coleman
Global Programs Support Manager
Tel: + 1-914-609-0381
Fax: + 1-914-609-0399
e-mail: [email protected]
ASIA
Nexant (Asia) Ltd
22nd Floor, Rasa Tower 1
555 Phahonyothin Road
Kwaeng Chatuchak, Khet Chatuchak
Bangkok 10900
Thailand
Attn: Tiankanok Sirichayaporn
Senior Consultant
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Section 6 Contact Information
Nexant, Inc.
San Francisco
New York
Houston
Washington
London
Frankfurt
Bahrain
Singapore
Bangkok
Shanghai
Kuala Lumpur
www.nexant.com
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