newsletter 07252016 final volume 2 issue 5

Copyright © 2016 EQS Capital Management LLC, See important disclosure on last page

All rights reserved. 1 www.eqstrading.com

SIGNALS

As tempting as it is to include Brexit in the

headline, Brexit is not the headline, as it is

the response to Brexit that is the real head-

line. The knee jerk slide of the markets was

a very rational response to the vote. In typi-

cal fashion, the markets oversold the rumor

leading up to the vote, and overbought the

facts in the days following the vote. In ra-

tional fashion the markets rebounded as the

“dust

settled”,

so to

speak,

but in an

irrational

fashion

global

markets

have

mostly

shaken

off the

news.

Gold and silver have been jumping on a

flight to safety, energy supply and demand

are looking for balance, agriculture futures

have mostly been down on excellent growing

conditions, bonds have been increasing in

value on lower yield, and equites have re-

covered post Brexit losses. While the world

economy has another earthquake that puts

yet another crack in the foundation; tantamount to a

game of “Jenga”, any time the foundations weakens,

the tower gets a bit more wobbly and precarious. The

issue is that the world market is putting its head in

the sand and turning a blind eye as central banks

look for magic pills to fix our economic hangover. But,

like in Jenga, the longer the duration of the game, the

harder the tower comes crashing down when the

foundation finally fails.

The Brexit,

in and of

itself, may

not end up

being that

big of an

issue to

European

trade, but

what the

vote tells

us that

throngs of

the social demographics are not as economically

pleased as the markets are telling us that they

should be. Here in America, with the Dow around

18k, the NASDAQ pushing 5k, and the S&P at 2,100-

it would seem that things are great for business.

America is a conglomeration-a vast melting pot,-and

in this small world we live, Europe, China, Japan, and

the rest of the world economy are all wooden blocks

in our Jenga economy.

HEAD IN THE SAND

I N S I D E T H I S I S S U E :

Head in Sand Cont. 2

Precious Metals 3

Crude Oil 4

Natural Gas 5

About EQS 6

Terms and Disclosures 7

E Q S T R A D E R E C O M M E N D A T I O N S

T H E S OU RC E

F O R C O MMOD ITY

T RA DING S IG NA LS

Volume 2, Issue 5 July 25, 2016

An EQS Publication on the Commodity Markets

©

Commodity SymbolCurrent

PositionEntry Date Entry Price Stoploss MTD Return YTD Return

Average 10-Year

Annual Return

Sharpe

Ratio

WTI Crude Oil CLU16 NA NA NA NA -4.97% 25.49% 36.53% 1.49

Brent Crude Oil EBX16 NA NA NA NA 14.21% 57.06% 43.29% 1.00

Diesel HOQ16 NA NA NA NA -6.09% 16.16% 33.94% 1.59

Gasoline RBQ16 NA NA NA NA 12.59% 18.42% 45.02% 0.94

Natural Gas NGQ16 Long 4/21/2016 2.069$ 2.50% 0.33% 16.32% 68.89% 1.48

Gold GCQ16 Long 6/15/2016 1,294.10$ 1.00% -0.96% 3.99% 28.02% 2.06

Silver SIU16 Long 7/12/2016 20.38$ 1.75% -12.36% -31.57% 60.21% 0.98

This performance is simulated using corresponding stop loss recommendations. No leverage used on these results.

Refer to important disclosures on the EQS Trading (www.eqstrading.com) website.



Uncertainty is fear, and fear translates into volatility. Markets hate uncertainty; Brexit is now a veritable

certainty, and in typical fashion since the vote happened and the four horses of the apocalypse did not

come riding in, the world has largely kicked the can down the road and celebrated it as a victory for swaths

of cheap money from central banks. In a twist of fate, the UK, France and Germany’s fears are creating just

the right amount of fear to keep the printing press going, driving down bond yields, and prices inequities.

The only real losers so far

have been big banks. All

twenty of the world’s big-

gest banks are down this

year, and according the

Wall Street Journal, the

top 20 banks have lost

$500,000,000,000 in

market cap so far this

year. It is not like this

happened generations

ago and time has healed

all wounds, we just went

through a banking crisis

and it not only shook the

foundation of the Ameri-

can economy, but the

world. Bank losses are

caused by real people, and real companies that have real issues. If banks are losing, that is a wakeup call.

Brexit should be a wakeup call. Wakeup! The world economy has real issues that need to be fixed-not re-

paired, but fixed!

Though economics is conventionally considered a “science,” it is in many respects, an art. The science part

of economics is more of a “science experiment.” With every shake of the foundation, and every block that

is removed from the Jenga tower, the question becomes ‘how long can the game be played?’ It is not sci-

ence; it is physics that tells us that, ‘what goes up must come down’. What the Brexit vote told the world is

that the people are restless.

Markets may appear to be healthy, but

the market is made up of people; people

are not healthy. Another topic that has

been reported on time, and time again is

jobs. The jobs report continues to show

that it is low wage jobs in the service

economy that is driving growth. As jobs

and markets become top heavy, people

get restless. Akin to Jenga, when the

tower gets top heavy, the tower falls.

Tower can be saved though. Europe

needs to look no further than the Lean-

ing Tower of Pisa as a reminder of how to

make the best situation out of a comedy of errors.

It is not all doom and gloom. For now, central banks are

keeping the gears greased and the ship sailing full steam

ahead. Brexit is not the end of the world. Europe has

been around for thousands of years and is not going

anywhere. However, the UK is the canary in the coal

mine. The world needs to wake up and take Brexit as a

signal that things need to change before the tower falls

over.

HE AD I N T HE SA N D (C O NTI N U E D )

According the Wall Street

Journal, the top 20 banks have

lost $500,000,000,000 in market cap so

far this year.



On June 23rd, the UK electorate voted in favor of Brexit, sending shock waves across the global

financial markets. Just prior to the vote, precious metals prices seemed to be on a downward

trajectory but then after Brexit was announced, prices roared back with a vengeance. Gold be-

came the market’s safety net, trading up to $1374.9/ounce, its highest level in more than two

years and the highest point so far this year. The British pound plunged by 12% on an intra-day

basis when the leave outcome was announced to its lowest level in more than thirty years. The

Brexit news and associated uncertainty have sparked a fresh surge in demand for precious met-

als. Since, then, the market has recovered all of its losses.

So, this begs the

question — is Brex-

it good or bad for

the global econo-

my? On the one

hand, embracing

the free market,

establishing itself

as a truly inde-

pendent nation,

and getting rid of

the EU red tape

could benefit Brit-

ain. After all, Brit-

ain could set its

own trade rules and it would see an immediate cost savings as it would no longer contribute to

the EU budget. However, its harder to determine whether the financial advantages of EU mem-

bership, such as free trade and inward investment, outweigh the upfront costs. The EU is a sin-

gle market in which no tariffs are imposed on imports and exports between member states and

because almost half of Britain’s exports go to Europe, access to the single market is vital for the

health of its economy. Furthermore, the EU is currently negotiating with the US to create the

world’s biggest free trade area and Britain would be left out. In April 23rd, Barack Obama stood

alongside with David Cameron and said if Britain were to leave the EU and seek a trade deal with

America, it would find itself in the “back of the queue”. Therefore, outside the EU, Britain will be-

come a smaller, weaker negotiating partner. Finally, its logical to think that inward investment

will slow in the near term due to uncertainly of the outcome and its consequences.

Like mentioned on the cover story, the short-term effects of Brexit on the global economy have

translated into uncertainty and increased volatility. After selling off initially as a result of the Brex-

it vote, most financial markets have since rebounded as major central banks assured they would

provide liquidity and intervene as needed. The Bank of Japan is expected to deliver further easing

compared to the previous baseline and the Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates for

the first time in 7 years. Also nurturing markets was the US Fed’s dovish stance in not raising

raise in June and many analysts expect that

because of Brexit, no rate hikes are ex-

pected this year and only two in 2017.

Whether the implications of Brexit are local

or global will only become apparent in due

course but its clear that uncertainty will re-

main until negotiations divorcing Britain from

the EU are final.

Time will tell whether Brexit is good or bad,

but just in case the central banks don’t save

the day, gold can be your safety net as an

effective hedge against uncertainty.

PR E C I O U S M E TA L S—TH E M A R K E T S A F E T Y NE T

After the Brexit vote, gold became the market’s safety net, trading up to $1374.9/ounce, its

highest level in more than two

years

Bullish

Bullish Factors Dominate



EQS became bullish on oil prices in February when oil was at $29.64/barrel and later took profits

on our long position in June at $48.85/barrel. We are currently neutral as many of the data

points we track illustrate a mixed picture regarding oil fundamentals and the global economy.

On the bullish side, recent US economic data has exceeded expectation of most Wall Street ana-lysts, which has consequently improved the demand outlook for oil. The Institute for Supply Man-

agement reported that in June the Index of manufacturer activity signaled the fourth straight month of expansion. The index jumped

to 53.2 from a low in January of 48.2, with 50 being the dividing line between contraction and expansion. Consumer confidence rose

and the housing market continued to be steady during the quarter. Globally, the picture is a bit more cloudy as the Global All-Industry

Output Index revealed the second quarter saw the slowest global economic growth since Q4 2012 as growth was anemic in the US

and India, stagnant in China with Japan and Brazil seeing further declines. Only Russia and the Eurozone saw relatively solid growth,

but with Brexit, now Europe is in question.

Looking at the fundamentals, oil inventories are still at relatively high levels, despite robust de-

mand. Typically this time of year, the market experiences large reductions in inventories as the summer driving and travel season kicks in full gear for the July 4th holidays. However, inventories

reductions have been modest and disappointed analysts expectations. The main reason is that the oil market has an unusually large amount off floating storage (i.e. oil tankers) that its having to

cope with simultaneously with healthy onshore storage. Storing oil is currently profitable because the forward structure of WTI and Brent are in Contango where the spot price is cheaper than pric-

es for future delivery. This is an indication that the market is oversupplied and traders can buy fill up storage and resell for higher prices later. This situation has been exacerbated because inter-

est rates are so low, oil traders can finance storage more so than in the past when rates were higher. So, when onshore storage began to approach high levels, oil firms began to store oil on

large tankers. Although low gasoline prices fueled a record number of Independence Day holiday motorists, putting millions more behind the wheel than on Memorial Day, according to AAA, the

demand was not enough to make a meaningful dent in onshore storage as the market also dealt

with offshore floating storage.

Global supply disruptions have offset some of the pain from high inventory levels. Unplanned global oil supply disruptions averaged more than 3.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in May 2016,

the highest monthly level recorded since EIA started tracking global disruptions in January 2011. From April to May, disruptions grew by 0.8 million b/d as increased outages, largely in Canada,

Nigeria, Iraq, and Libya, more than offset reduced outages in Kuwait, Brazil, and Ghana. In Cana-da, the evacuation of oil workers because of wildfires in Fort McMurray, Alberta, reduced Cana-

da's oil sands production and led to an average 0.8 million b/d supply disruption in May, with a daily disruption peak of more than 1.1 million b/d. In late May, workers began returning to the

area, and production is gradually restarting at a number of projects. In Nigeria, an escalation in militant attacks on oil and natural gas infrastructure led to a substantial increase in supply disrup-

tions in May, which averaged 0.8 million b/d, almost 0.3 million b/d higher than in April. In south-ern Iraq, power outages and inclement weather in the Basra Gulf contributed to a 50,000 b/d

increase to Iraq's supply disruption. In Libya, exports from Marsa al-Hariga, currently Libya's largest operat-

ing oil terminal, were temporarily halted from late-April to mid-May, increasing Libya's disruption by an average

of 50,000 b/d in May. Exports from the terminal re-sumed after the rival state oil companies signed a deal

to restart exports.

For every bullish indication, there seems to be a bear-

ish one and therefore EQS remains neutral. We will look for clues as Brexit unfolds, whether central banks

continue stimulus measures, and when production outages are resolved. Until then, we anticipate some

range bound action in black gold.

C RU D E O I L - -WA I T I N G FO R MA R K E T C LU E S

Unplanned global oil supply

disruptions are at the highest monthly level recorded since EIA started tracking global disruptions in

January 2011.

Neutral



Summer is here and it’s getting hot and conse-

quently natural gas demand for power generation

is soaring to record levels. EQS mentioned in its

last publication that it was bullish on natural gas

and that “prices could rise substantially”. We

made our long recommendation in mid-April at

$2.069/MMBtu and since then prices rose to

$2.998/MMBtu by July 1, a rise of over 40%.

Since then, prices have moderated and seem to

be trading in range between $2.63 and $2.79/

MMBtu. As this time, EQS is still bullish on natural

gas and anticipates further upside in prices.

Technically, prices need to settle above the re-

sistance line seen in the weekly chart to justify

another substantial price move to the upside.

We discussed last time the major reason driving

our bullish thesis is the concept of economic sub-

stitution in that natural gas prices are currently

cheaper than the other substitute fossil fuels

used in power generation and typically when this

happens, the demand for natural gas picks up

and prices rise accordingly. US gas power de-

mand continues to hold near record levels, help-

ing limit storage injection to the second slowest

start in history. The U.S. Energy Information Ad-

ministration reported a modest 34-Bcf injection

into inventories for the week to July 15 that in-

creased the total working gas in storage to 3,277

Bcf. The small addition cut storage overhangs to

471 Bcf above the year-ago level and 559 Bcf

above the five-year average storage level of 2,718

Bcf, evidencing a tightening of the supply/demand

balance. The EIA said that for the review week to

July 20, demand from the power-generating sector

rose 4% from the previous week, helping to sup-

port a week-on-week gain in total U.S. natural gas

consumption of 2%. At the same time, natural

gas production at 80.0 Bcf/d was unchanged on

the week. Having said all this, storage is still at

healthy levels above the 5-year range and so mar-

ket participants are looking to weather for addi-

tional support to drive the contract price higher.

NAT U R AL GAS - - I T ’S GETT I N G HOT !

Currently above-average temperatures are ex-

pected in the East, South and West in both the

six- to 10-day and eight- to 14-day projections.

It is also important to note that without the

downturn in oil prices, the natural gas story

would not be near as constructive. It is the

combination of oil and gas price weakness

that has created the extreme pressure on

the onshore US producer group. Although

some wells are designated “oil wells”, they

might produce mostly oil but natural gas is

also produced. So even though the market

is oversupplied at times with natural gas, if

oil prices are high (like a couple years ago),

producers will keep producing oil at the

expense of natural gas. In some cases,

natural gas was flared as it was so abun-

dant it cost more to transport it to use rather

than dispose of it. However, now the market

dynamics are different now in that both oil and

natural gas rigs have declined in tandem so

natural gas supply has a fighting chance to

balance.

Although EQS remains bullish, we will watch for

a settle above $2.80 and then above the week-

ly resistance line to solidify the next significant

jump in prices.

US gas power demand continues to hold near record levels, helping limit storage injection to the second slowest

start in history.

Bullish

Bullish Factors Dominate

NG Weekly Price Chart



Services

Through its subscription service, EQS Trading provides traders and

hedgers easy to follow trading signals for major commodity futures mar-

kets, including crude oil, natural gas, gold, silver and many others. Now,

strategies used by institutions and hedge funds are at your fingertips.

The subscription service includes both daily trading signals and the

weekly Signals Newsletter, which provides in-depth insight to the com-

modity markets.

EQS Capital Management also offers a commodity hedge fund (EQS

Commodity Fund LLC), which employs the same signals in its subscrip-

tion service in a private placement fund for accredited investors and insti-

tutions. Because EQS uses a “long” and “short” strategy, it is designed

to generate returns, regardless of which way the market is moving. EQS

Commodity Fund imbeds strict risk management principles through diver-

sifying its

portfolio

(energy,

metals,

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culture)

and ac-

tively

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stop loss

limits.

About EQS

Economic Quantitative Strategy (aka EQS) is an investment and trading

strategy that translates economic data and technical indicators into price

direction for commodities. Because of its quantitative nature, EQS has

been rigorously back-tested with 15 years of historical data to ensure the

strategy

works in a

variety of

market

conditions.

Further-

more, be-

cause the

global

economy

changes

over time,

EQS em-

ploys dy-

namic parameters that evolve as the market changes.

About Us

Management

Richard C. Rhodes

Mr. Richard C. Rhodes is the Presi-

dent and Founder of EQS Capital

Management LLC. Richard has a

Bachelor of Science with honors in

Mechanical Engineering from Texas

A&M University and an MBA from

Duke University. He brings almost 25

years of diverse energy experience,

covering all phases of the oil and natural gas value chain from pro-

ducer to end-user. Richard is a licensed Series 3 CTA (Commodity

Trading Advisor) with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

and a member of the National Futures Association.

Richard began his professional career on a drilling rig in West Texas

with Conoco Exploration and Production. Richard continued his oil

and gas career with Koch Industries (ranked as one of the largest

privately-owned companies in the U.S.) where he worked in mid-

stream, refining, pipeline, and distribution operations. During his eight

years with Koch Industries, Richard began as an operations engineer

and later found his true passion in trading, which leveraged his pro-

fessional interests in mathematics and economics. Richard joined

Duke Energy in 2002, where he spent ten years working in the energy

trading department and earned The Pinnacle Award, the company’s

highest honor. Richard then left Duke Energy to launch EQS Capital

Management in 2012.

Jonathan M. Lamb

Mr. Jonathan M. Lamb is the Director of

Business Development at EQS Trading. As

a four year varsity hurdler on the track team

at Ball State University, Jonathan earned

Bachelor of Science degrees in Risk Man-

agement, Insurance, and Economics, and

started working on his PhD in Economics at

North Carolina State University before focus-

ing on business and trading.

As part of the first wave of Millennials to join

the work force, Jonathan started his professional career almost 15

year ago, joining ACES Power Marketing as an Operations Specialist,

providing demand side economics for Co-Op Power Providers before

becoming a Real-Time Electricity Power Trader. He continued his

career trading power for seven years with Progress Energy (now

Duke Energy, the largest utility in the nation) as a Senior Real Time

Trader. Jonathan then opted to become an entrepreneur and started

a consulting firm specializing in finance and economics, owning and

running seven different small businesses before joining EQS in 2015.



EQS Trading

A Division of EQS Capital Management, LLC

8480 Honeycutt Road, Suite 200

Raleigh, NC 27615

Phone: 919.714.7453

www.EQStrading.com

E-mail: [email protected]

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In no event will EQS, its affiliates, nor any of its officers, partners or employees be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from loss of data or profits arising out of it, or in any connection with, your use of the Subscrip-tion or the failure of performance, error, omission, interruption, delay in operation or transmis-sion. Use of the Subscription Service shall be governed by all applicable Federal laws of the United States of America and the laws of the State of Delaware. The user hereby acknowledges and agrees that EQS may be harmed irreparably by any violation of this Agreement and that EQS shall be entitled to injunctive relief to enforce this Agreement. The information contained has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not an offer to sell or purchase or a solici-tation of an offer to sell or purchase any interests or shares in funds managed by EQS. Any such offer will be made only pursuant to an offering memorandum and the documents relating thereto describing such securities. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RE-SULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESEN-TATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMI-LAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPO-THETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RE-SULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HY-POTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN AD-VERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THERE-FORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FI-NANCIAL CONDITION. THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE THAT IS OFTEN OBTAINABLE IN COMMODITY INTEREST TRADING CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THE USE OF LEVERAGE CAN LEAD TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS GAINS. THE REGULATIONS OF THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION ("CFTC") REQUIRE THAT PROSPECTIVE CLIENTS OF A CTA RECEIVE A DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT WHEN THEY ARE SOLICITED TO ENTER INTO AN AGREEMENT WHEREBY THE CTA WILL DIRECT OR GUIDE THE CLIENT'S COMMODITY INTEREST TRADING AND THAT CERTAIN RISK FACTORS BE HIGHLIGHTED. YOU MAY REQUEST A COPY OF THE DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT BY EMAILING EQS. THE CFTC HAS NOT PASSED UPON THE MERITS OF PARTICIPATING IN THIS TRADING PROGRAM NOR ON THE ADEQUACY OR ACCURACY OF THE DIS-CLOSURE DOCUMENT. THIS BRIEF STATEMENT CANNOT DISCLOSE ALL OF THE RISKS AND OTHER SIG-NIFICANT ASPECTS OF THE COMMODITY MARKETS. THEREFORE, YOU SHOULD PROCEED DIRECTLY TO THE DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT AND STUDY IT CAREFULLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS APPROPRIATE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. EQS CAPITAL LLC IS A CFTC REGISTERED COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR AND COMMODITY POOL OPERATOR. PURSUANT TO AN EXEMPTION FROM THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION IN CONNECTION WITH POOLS WHOSE PARTICIPANTS ARE LIMITED TO QUALIFIED ELIGIBLE PERSONS, AN OFFERING MEMORANDUM FOR THIS POOL IS NOT REQUIRED TO BE, AND HAS NOT BEEN, FILED WITH THE COMMISSION. THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION DOES NOT PASS UPON THE MERITS OF PARTICIPATING IN A FUND OR UPON THE ADEQUACY OR ACCURACY OF AN OFFERING MEMORANDUM. CONSEQUENTLY, THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION HAS NOT RE-VIEWED OR APPROVED THIS OFFERING OR ANY OFFERING MEMORANDUM FOR THIS FUND. THESE SECURITIES HAVE NOT BEEN APPROVED OR DISAPPROVED BY THE SECURITIES AND EX-CHANGE COMMISSION (THE “SEC”) OR ANY STATE SECURITIES COMMISSION NOR HAS THE SEC OR ANY STATE SECURITIES COMMISSION PASSED UPON THE ACCURACY OR ADEQUACY OF THIS AS A PRIVATE PLACEMENT MEMORANDUM. ANY REPRESENTATION TO THE CONTRARY IS A CRIMINAL OF-FENSE.

T H E S OU RC E

F O R C O MMOD ITY

T RA DING S IG NA LS

TERMS and DISCLOSURES

newsletter 07252016 final volume 2 issue 5

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