newsletter 072015 final volume 1 issue 4

See important disclosures on last page 1 www.eqstrading.com

SIGNALS

Remember in economics that

it takes two to tango. Last

week we talked about global

demand as Greece draws the

EU into economic turmoil,

Japan & Puerto Rico could

draw the West into economic

turmoil, and China could

shake global turmoil. The

other side of the equation is

supply. Econ 101, supply and

demand intersect at equilibri-

um and give us price and

quantity, so just as equally

important to demand is sup-

ply, and with oil and refined

products from Iran open to

the world market, the global

supply will be going up as

global demand will likely be

going down.

Officially on the 14th of July

despite strong odds the week

prior, the United States along

with 5 other world powers

sealed a historic accord with

Iran to curb their nuclear pro-

gram in return for ending

sanctions after two years of

tough diplomacy. The accord

is the biggest breakthrough in

relations with Iran in decades,

and will open up Iranian oil

reserves to the world market.

Full implementation depends

on Iran meeting obligations to

curb its nuclear program, and

once inspectors verify compli-

ance, Iran will be allowed to

ramp up energy exports and

re-enter the global financial

system. It is estimated that

as much as much as $150

billion in assets have been

frozen due to the nuclear

sanctions. The entire GDP of

Greece which has been domi-

nating headlines is “only”

about $330 billion, so it is a

major windfall for Iran (and

the

World) when their assets are un-

thawed.

“This is probably going to go down

in history as one of the biggest

diplomatic successes of the cen-

tury,” said, Ellie Geranmayeh, a

policy fellow at the European

Council of Foreign Relations.

President Barack Obama said it

blocks “every path to a nuclear

weapon” for Iran, while Iranian

Foreign Minister Mohammad

Javad Zarif called it a “win-win”

solution, as Israel remains one of

the few vocal opponents to the

accord. (Continued on Page 2)

IRA N NU C LEA R DEA L REAC H ED

Some Good Runs This Week!

Still Money to be made when prices fall!

-Gasoline was up 6.77% since our long call on 7-7-15, then we were able to add ANOTHER 7.99% gain when we made a short call on 7-13-15 before being stopped out Thursday and Fri-day.

-The total gain on Unleased Gasoline stands at 12.19% for the last 2 weeks!

**You can achieve these results with discipline and by following the EQS daily trade recommendations and using the daily EQS Stop Loss guidance

I N S I D E T H I S I S S U E :

Iran Continued 2

Natural Gas 3

Oil and Products 4

Terms and Disclosures 5

E Q S T R A D E R E C O M M E N D A T I O N S

T H E S O U R C E

F O R C O M M O D I T Y

T R A D I N G S I G N A L S

Volume 1, Issue 4 July 20, 2015

A Weekly Publication on the Commodity Markets

TM


(Continued from page 1)

Though having $150 billion back in the pocket of Iran will not have the same effect of putting

$150 billion free and clear into say the pockets of the Greeks, it will none the less open Iran up

to global spending after being dark to the world for the last two years. Not only will Iran be

spending money with the rest of the globe, but the globe is eager to spend money in Iran. Iran

has been a widely untapped market. Iran is a country of 77 million people, and it has been one

of the most sealed off countries in the world. Iran has been closed to major outside equity in-

vestment, and the Iranian stock market could open to investors in early 2016.

It will likely take 6 to 12 months for the holder of the world’s fourth-largest crude reserves to

revive production by about 500,000 barrels a day. Sanctions cut the country’s crude exports by

more than half from a peak of more than 6 million barrels a day in the 1970s, but this is a ma-

jor step in ramping back production.

The agreement of the six countries will allow the US and EU nations to buy Iranian oil and also

eases restrictions on trading refined products, chemicals and natural gas. Not only is this a big

boost (bearish for prices) of oil, but to natural gas as well. Iran holds the second-largest gas

reserves in the world, after Russia, and opening investment in the natural gas production and

infrastructure could dramatically change the shape of the European energy picture as cheap

and readily available natural gas could change Asia and Europe with the same force that the

shale boom has changed North America.

Natural gas could be as important, or more important to the world as oil. The natural gas land-

scape is quickly changing as fracking and shale gas in North America has forever altered prices

and demand for gas. The “Economist” ran another in-depth article on the ripple impacts of low-

er oil and gas prices on the US shale industry and the viability of the industry debt repayment.

Opening up Iran to a world market will only further put downward price pressure on prices and

viability of shale debt.

The deal still has a long way to go, as US Congress and Israel still are possible road blocks, but

this a major step into injecting major supply of oil, natural gas, and refined products into the

global marketplace.

IRA N…(C ON T . )

The accord is the biggest

breakthrough in

relations with Iran in

decades, and will open

up Iranian oil reserves

to the world market.


Every week, the question for natural gas seems

to be, “How low can prices go?”

Increased heat in the long term weather forecast

gave a bit of a boost to the markets late last

weeks, however the bears still seem to be mak-

ing bets that the lows are not in, but again as we

have been saying every week we are getting clos-

er to a bottom.

Money managers pared bearish bets on natural

gas faster than they pared their bullish bets in

the week ended July 14, CFTC data shows. Short

positions were cut by 25,614 contracts and trad-

ers cut their long positions by 1,208 contracts.

This is expected with a short term change in

prompt weather related demand, but with a net-

short position still at 120,207 contracts it looks

like most traders still feel that the bottom is yet

to come in.

EQS remains bearish, as last week marked the

one year mark that we have been short the sec-

tor, with a net gain of over 40% in a years’ time

since we made the short call. With weather de-

mand, and closing in on a very long bear contin-

ue to keep your stops very tight as any change in

supply or demand could reverse the outlook any

day.

One Year and 40% Gains later...How Low Can

Natural Gas Prices Go?

Bearish

Natural Gas


The resurgence in drilling seen earlier this month seemed to fizzle last week as U.S. energy firms cut

seven oil rigs. The decline comes as WTI crude oil prices have fallen nearly 15 percent this month,

the biggest slump since December.

That was the 30th weekly oil rig decline in the past 31 weeks, bringing the total down to 638, the

lowest since the last week in June, said Baker Hughes in its closely followed report. At 638 rigs the

US count is well under the 916 rigs that were online the same week a year ago, with Canadian rigs up

for the week, but still down from this point last year.

The drop in rig counts comes as Iran has started to ship oil to Asia that it had been storing offshore

for months after Tehran and other world powers reached an agreement about the nation's nuclear

program, clearing the way for an easing of international sanctions.

The North American oil industry continues to do more with less, as despite lower rig counts, output

remains near multi decade highs.

We expect the supply and demand picture to be pushing and pulling this week, with Global demand

gloom and increased global supply to be bearish for prices.

Since EQS made the top call and went short on 7-13-15, our Readers have had a 3.41% gain on WTI,

0.77% on Brent, 4.39% on Diesel, and 4.99% gain on Gasoline, for a one week average of 3.39% for

the sector!

R I G CO UN TS FA LL , BUT C AN T HE BU LL S ST OMP T H E BEA R S?

Bearish

Oil & Products


EQS Trading

A Division of EQS Capital Management, LLC

8480 Honeycutt Road, Suite 200

Raleigh, NC 27615

Phone: 919.714.7453

www.EQStrading.com

E-mail: [email protected]

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PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RE-SULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESEN-TATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMI-LAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPO-THETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RE-SULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HY-POTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN AD-VERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THERE-FORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FI-NANCIAL CONDITION. THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE THAT IS OFTEN OBTAINABLE IN COMMODITY INTEREST TRADING CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THE USE OF LEVERAGE CAN LEAD TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS GAINS. THE REGULATIONS OF THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION ("CFTC") REQUIRE THAT PROSPECTIVE CLIENTS OF A CTA RECEIVE A DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT WHEN THEY ARE SOLICITED TO ENTER INTO AN AGREEMENT WHEREBY THE CTA WILL DIRECT OR GUIDE THE CLIENT'S COMMODITY INTEREST TRADING AND THAT CERTAIN RISK FACTORS BE HIGHLIGHTED. YOU MAY REQUEST A COPY OF THE DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT BY EMAILING EQS. THE CFTC HAS NOT PASSED UPON THE MERITS OF PARTICIPATING IN THIS TRADING PROGRAM NOR ON THE ADEQUACY OR ACCURACY OF THE DIS-CLOSURE DOCUMENT. THIS BRIEF STATEMENT CANNOT DISCLOSE ALL OF THE RISKS AND OTHER SIG-NIFICANT ASPECTS OF THE COMMODITY MARKETS. THEREFORE, YOU SHOULD PROCEED DIRECTLY TO THE DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT AND STUDY IT CAREFULLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS APPROPRIATE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. EQS CAPITAL LLC IS A CFTC REGISTERED COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR AND COMMODITY POOL OPERATOR. PURSUANT TO AN EXEMPTION FROM THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION IN CONNECTION WITH POOLS WHOSE PARTICIPANTS ARE LIMITED TO QUALIFIED ELIGIBLE PERSONS, AN OFFERING MEMORANDUM FOR THIS POOL IS NOT REQUIRED TO BE, AND HAS NOT BEEN, FILED WITH THE COMMISSION. THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION DOES NOT PASS UPON THE MERITS OF PARTICIPATING IN A FUND OR UPON THE ADEQUACY OR ACCURACY OF AN OFFERING MEMORANDUM. CONSEQUENTLY, THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION HAS NOT RE-VIEWED OR APPROVED THIS OFFERING OR ANY OFFERING MEMORANDUM FOR THIS FUND. THESE SECURITIES HAVE NOT BEEN APPROVED OR DISAPPROVED BY THE SECURITIES AND EX-

T H E S O U R C E

F O R C O M M O D I T Y

T R A D I N G S I G N A L S

TERMS and DISCLOSURES

newsletter 072015 final volume 1 issue 4

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