newsletter 05192016 final volume 2 issue 4
TRANSCRIPT
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SIGNALS
Markets have been historically irrational, so
it only makes sense that they continue to be
irrational! What is good is bad, and what is
bad is good. There are many drivers across
the markets, and as the bulls and bears
fight over market direction, little has
changed to start the second quarter as mar-
ket volatility as tracked by the VIX remains
at or below typical levels.
The major cata-
lyst of the mar-
kets has been
the strength of
the commodity
sector, which
has been large-
ly dominated by
global forces
(namely China
and India), with
American job
numbers set-
ting the prece-
dent for American interest rate expectations
and thus setting the tone for the global mar-
ket. The markets are also waking up to the
looming national American elections this
Fall, as the outcome will likely have myriad
implications on not only the current policy,
but through Supreme Court nominations-the
policies of generations to come.
The economy continues to add jobs and is attempting
to reach and surpass many pre-recession measures;
major US equity indexes are at or near all-time highs,
as the unemployment rate hovers around 5%. As
inflation is still flat relative with the Fed’s target, the
rally in commodity prices, the recovery of oil prices
and the Non-Farm Payroll numbers become critical
measurements of the economic pulse of America.
Job creation re-
mains strong, but
with 160,000 jobs
added juxtaposed
with the 202,000
expected, the
market reacted
with the rational of
slowed growth, but
the pause eventu-
ally dissipated as
the bulls made the
case that another
Fed rate hike will
be delayed. With
the seemingly tenuous jobs report, economists-
including those at Barclays and Merrill Lynch-have
revised their rate hike expectations from two, down
to one, which is largely anticipated by the market to
occur in September. When you peel back, unearth
the headline numbers and look at the quality of jobs
that have been created in America since the Great
Recession, they still leave much to be desired.
JO B S M I S S , A N D T H E M A R K E T S SH RU G I T O F F…
I N S I D E T H I S I S S U E :
Job Miss Continued 2
Precious Metals 3
Crude Oil 4
Natural Gas 6
About EQS 7
Terms and Disclosures 8
E Q S T R A D E R E C O M M E N D A T I O N S
T H E S OU RC E
F O R C O MMOD ITY
T RA DING S IG NA LS
Volume 2, Issue 4 May 19, 2016
An EQS Publication on the Commodity Markets
©
Current crude oil long rec-ommendations for WTI and Brent are up 30% and 40%, respectively.
*You can achieve these results with discipline and by following the EQS daily trade recommendations and using the daily EQS Stop Loss guidance
Commodity SymbolCurrent
PositionEntry Date Entry Price Stoploss
Current Position
ReturnMTD Return YTD Return
Average 10-Year
Annual Return
Sharpe
Ratio
WTI Crude Oil CLM16 Long 2/22/2016 29.64$ 2.00% 29.91% 5.89% 35.22% 35.40% 1.49
Brent Crude Oil EBN16 Long 1/28/2016 33.10$ 2.00% 40.08% 5.65% 50.13% 43.76% 1.00
Diesel HOM16 Long 2/18/2016 1.0879$ 2.00% 17.73% 6.96% 28.94% 34.15% 1.59
Gasoline RBM16 Long 2/23/2016 1.0006$ 2.00% 11.79% 3.96% 17.85% 49.32% 0.94
Natural Gas NGM16 Long 5/19/2016 2.001$ 2.50% 0.00% 1.42% 0.05% 70.93% 1.48
Gold GCM16 Short 4/5/2016 1,219.30$ 1.00% -6.30% -0.88% 3.32% 31.87% 2.06
Silver SIN16 Short 5/18/2016 17.36$ 1.75% -1.75% -5.35% -11.80% 67.98% 0.98
This performance is simulated using corresponding stop loss recommendations. No leverage used on these results.
Refer to important disclosures on the EQS Trading (www.eqstrading.com) website.
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All rights reserved. 2 www.eqstrading.com
The trend in total compensation, a number which takes into account hours worked, salaries paid and bene-
fits, is actually declining, and as individuals drop out of the labor pool in frustration, the headline numbers
are skewed. Americans are simply leaving the labor force in large numbers, much of it to retirement and
parenting, but it is important to point out that many Americans who have the ability to leave the labor force
find that salaries and small business earnings are too low to make it worthwhile for them to stay in the labor
market.
Total annual compensation
of workers has dropped by
15% of the American GDP
($3 trillion) since 1970 and
workers of the world have
failed to unite to reverse
the trend, as the old adage
of “the rich get richer,
while the poor get poorer”
continues.
While the work force con-
tinues to be underem-
ployed and underutilized,
lower real term wages of
workers benefit corporate
earnings. With booming
growth in the construction and service sectors, it would be rational to extrapolate that corporate earnings
show healthily growth. As pointed out earlier, markets are not rational, and earnings from publicly traded
companies have failed to impress Wall Street. The irrational markets continue to react to headlines, and
have largely shrugged off the underlying message that contributes to those headlines.
Several sectors and companies have been winners, but some “blue chip” companies have had some set-
backs, which could be a canary in the coal mine for the epic 2016 rally in equity and commodities. Disney
and Apple are two American giants that have had recent reversals as quarterly earnings and guidance have
disappointed investors. One of the major themes
continues to be global struggles, as both companies
point to weakness in China. However, optimism
persists that American markets can overcome a
global slowdown, as rebounding oil prices give hope
that cause for a global recession is diminishing.
With negative rates, many central banks around the
world are doing everything possible to pump money
into the economy and spur growth. Even if the US
hike rates one to two times in 2016, hitherto-rates
are still historically and empirically low. By some
measures, many of the fiscal and monetary policies
are working as the world has not slipped into a re-
cession. We keep a close eye on Brazil and Britain,
as political uncertainty could create outcomes that
either strengthen or weaken the world economy.
With uncertainty, we remain flexible and hope for
the best, but prepare for the worst.
As we march towards summer, the markets appear to be gaining momentum and are relatively healthy.
Don’t fall victim to market and media hype, peel back the onion and take a hard look at the real story that
the market and numbers that drive the market are saliently conveying. Good times appear to be here, but
the question remains, are they?
JOB M I SS (CO N TI NU E D )
Total annual compensation of
workers has dropped by 15% of the American GDP ($3 trillion) since
1970 .
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Diverging viewpoints are surfacing regarding the direction of precious metals prices from some
well-known market players and although gold has had a stellar performance in January, it has
been fairly range bound since then between $1200 and $1300 per troy ounce.
Warren Buffett’s famous quote on gold seems
to best capture its behavior: “Gold isn’t produc-
tive and only rises when investors believe the
ranks of the fearful will grow.” Supporting the
bullish view are George Soros, Stanley Drucken-
miller, Paul Singer, and JP Morgan. George
Soros is famous for his trade of the century
when he made over a billion dollars during the
early 1990’s by betting against the pound and
bringing the Bank of England to its knees. So-
ros recently disclosed that in the first quarter
he doubled the amount of put options on the
SPDR S&P 500 ETF and acquired a large stake
in gold. Druckenmiller, hedge fund manager
and former portfolio manager for Soros is also
bearish on stocks but very bullish on gold. Sing-
er, who runs hedge fund Elliott Management,
wrote in a note to clients: “This is just the begin-
ning of the rebound in gold.” JPMorgan has
recommended to clients to own gold on the
view that Fed tightening could tip the fragile US
economy into recession during 2017 and gold has historically performed well during recessions.
Taking a less optimistic view on gold is John Paulson, BlackRock, First Eagle Investment Manage-
ment, and Goldman Sachs. John Paulson, who runs Paulson & Co. became known to have made
one of the greatest trades ever when he made billions by betting against the real-estate bubble
during the subprime fallout and financial crisis. Paulson has been one of the world’s most influ-
ential gold investors as he earned $5 billion on the metal in 2010. However, he recently cut his
exposure by 17% as he believes prices have little room to run as the Fed prepares to hike rates
this year. Also supporting Paulson’s view is BlackRock and First Eagle Investment Management.
Goldman Sachs is recommending to short gold and has publically stated it’s their highest convic-
tion trade. Goldman sees a number of catalysts moving prices lower, including a more hawkish
Fed and ultimately U.S. policy rate divergence, corresponding with gradual dollar appreciation
over the next 3-12 months. Goldman expects a rate hike in September and believes that July is
also a possibility, which is bullish for the US dollar and bearish for gold.
EQS believes precious metals are becoming dull and we are bear-
ish on both gold and silver and support the latter argument
above. Mining companies are recommended to hedge at these
levels. While the current dovish Fed and low interest rate envi-
ronment is supportive for both silver and gold, the economy is
growing, albeit anemic, and this is enough to tip the scales down
for both metals. Our bearish call was confirmed when both met-
als failed key technical levels after the Fed minutes indicated a
June hike in interest rates is likely. Silver formed the reversal
head and shoulders pattern and failed the neckline support level
and gold failed its short-term support level. If you are an investor
with significant long exposure to equities, then a small long allo-
cation to gold makes sense as a hedge to diversify your portfolio.
However, on a stand-alone basis, the current economic environ-
ment does not support or sustain long positions in either metal.
P R E C I O U S M E T A L S P R I C E S - - B E C O M I N G D U L L
Our bearish call was confirmed
when both metals failed key technical levels after the Fed minutes indicated
a June hike in interest rates is
likely.
Silver Head & Shoulders Pattern
Gold Support Line Failure
Bearish
Head
Shoulder Shoulder
Neckline
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Saudi Arabia, historically, has been at the forefront when it
comes to crude oil as they are the world’s largest producer, the
lowest cost producer along with Iran, and holds virtually all the
spare capacity available in the market. Due to the collapse of
oil prices, the Saudi economy has suffered and the young Saudi
Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has a new
vision (i.e. Vision 2030), which is aimed to diversify the Saudi
economy by using oil revenues to build the world’s largest sov-
ereign wealth fund as the investment engine for development.
MBS came to power as the son of King Salman and the grand-
son of the country’s founder, Abdulaziz Ibn Saud. The young
prince recently flexed his muscles and omnipotence by ousting
the long-time oil minister Ali al-Naimi and
replacing him with Khalid al-Falih, the chair-
man of Saudi Aramco. Some analysts view
this move by MBS as an effort to save face
after the disastrous Doha meeting (for more
on Doha, see last month’s Signals). On the
one hand, the shift to a new oil minister sets
the stage for a more productive OPEC meet-
ing in June with greater hopes for a produc-
tion deal. On the other hand, al-Falih is con-
sidered to be in Salman’s inner circle and
expectations are that the Saudi’s are sup-
portive of maintaining high production levels
and letting low prices do the job of gradually
rebalancing the markets.
O I L PR I C E S - -A NE W SH E R R I F I N SAU D I AR A B I A
The young Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is the son of King Salman and the grandson of the country’s founder, Abdulaziz Ibn Saud.
Bullish
Bullish Factors Dominate
Saudi Arabia’s government budget
balance as a percentage of GDP vs
Brent Oil Prices ($/bbl)
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Although the unfolding political shifts in Saudi Arabia could be viewed as market neutral
for oil prices, there are two key indicators which are indeed bullish and have been driv-
ing prices upward as of late; they are unplanned produc-
tion outages occurring
around the globe and the
rate of decline of US shale
production. After the
market rapidly declined
6.5% following the fallout
at the Doha meeting, oil
workers in Kuwait went on
strike, taking a massive
amount of oil production
offline. This event limited
the downside of oil prices
following Doha, which EQS
believes could have been
on the order of a 10-15% slide in prices. The Kuwait Oil Company workers’ strike lasted
only four days, but output at its oil fields was reduced by as much as 60% during the
strike. In whole, OPEC unplanned supply disruptions averaged almost 2.5 mbpd in April,
up from March. The
Alberta wildfires are
also having a major
impact on supply.
Market reports indi-
cated that approxi-
mately 1.1mbpd of
production came
offline and while this
is substantial, crude
oil inventories at
Cushing are at rec-
ord levels, so the
impact to prices has
only been moderate.
Moreover, in Nigeria,
output has fallen to its lowest in decades following several acts of sabotage. Finally, US
production continues to contract year-on-year and this amalgamation collated with in-
creased unplanned outages has supported prices during the past month.
Although EQS announced its long call on WTI
back in February when WTI was just under $30
per barrel, headwinds could stall the rally for
the black gold; a major caveat is crude prices
are now at levels that allow many US shale
plays to break even and become profitable.
With the WTI 2017 calendar strip currently trad-
ing over $50/bbl, producers are increasing their
hedge portfolio exposure with heavy selling on
the forward calendar months. Despite this, EQS
feels that as long as the global economy re-
mains stable, crude prices will follow an auspi-
cious, upward trajectory and with the summer
and travel season approaching, inventories will
face substantial draws which should support
prices during the next few months.
O I L PR I C E S - -A NE W SH E R R I F I N SAU D I AR A B I A
Although EQS announced its long call on WTI back in February when WTI was just under $30
per barrel, headwinds could
stall the rally for the black gold...
Cash cost of onshore oil
production ($ per barrel of
oil equivalent)
Breakeven oil price at well-
head for US Shale Produc-
ers ($ per barrel)
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EQS mentioned in last month’s publication how
it’s been predominantly bearish since June 2014.
We are getting excited about natural gas and feel
that some conducive warm weather will charge up
the bulls. EQS is now bullish on natural gas and
feel once the summer heat arrives-prices could
rise substantially. But this is not a typical summer
for natural gas; it’s different this time. Here is
why…
Our thesis is mainly driven by the economic con-
cept of substitution. By academic definition, sub-
stitutes are when two goods can be used for the
same purpose. Let’s say apples and pears are
substitutes and let’s assume I like to eat both
apples and pears, but the price of apples is exor-
bitant relative to pears. Well, then I may choose
to only buy pears until the price of apples falls
back to comparable levels. Put another way, if the
price for apples goes up, the demand for pears
will go up.
The same is true in choosing a fuel for power gen-
eration. Natural gas is tantamount in importance
as a fuel source to power generation as gasoline
is to cars. Power generation plants use different
types of fuels, from nuclear to solar to fossil fuels.
Among the fossil fuels are heating oil, residual
fuel oil, coal, and natural gas. As seen from the
graph, natural gas is currently far cheaper than
the other substitute fossil fuels and typically when
this happens, the demand for natural gas picks up
and prices rise accordingly. Natural gas is not
only the cheapest fossil fuel right now for power
generation, but it’s also the cleanest for the envi-
ronment. Consequently, there is a big push to
move the power generation fleet to natural gas. As
NATU R A L GA S PR IC E S - - IT ’S D IF F E R E N T T H IS T I M E
EQS mentioned in last month’s publication,
power demand was boosted as coal-to-gas
switching due to cheap natural gas prices accel-
erated in March when Henry Hub cash prices
retreated to lows of $1.50/
MMBtu. Secondly, coal and No.
6 oil retirements due to environ-
mental standards have and will
continue to boost demand as a
total of 55 GW of power genera-
tion capacity is scheduled to
come online in 2016, with 24%
of the new additions dedicated
to natural gas.
There is further good news for
natural gas. The ISM manufac-
turing index has rebounded
since the beginning of the year
and this is a reliable forward
indicator of natural gas industri-
al demand. As the attached
graph reveals, the ISM has re-
bounded from a soft patch during Q1 and there-
fore industrial natural gas demand is expected
to rise during the upcoming EIA reports.
If you are a large investor or consumer of natu-
ral gas in the power generation or refining sec-
tor where natural gas is used as feedstock, look
for buying opportunities now during periods of
abject weakness. EQS recommends to NOT buy
all your natural gas contracts all at once, but
spread out (or average) your buying over the
next week or until the weather forecast indi-
cates heat on the horizon. Traders are recom-
mended to go long and follow our daily signal
subscription service for updates.
Natural gas is not only the cheapest
fossil fuel right now for power
generation, but it’s also the cleanest for
the environment.
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
$ p
er
MM
BTU
Power Generation Fuels
Heating Oil Residual Fuel Oil Coal Natural Gas
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
65.00
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ISM 3M Advance
Industrial Demand (YOY 3mma)
Fossil Fuels Consumed for Power Generation
ISM Index Foreshadows NG Industrial Demand
Bullish
Bullish Factors Dominate
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Services
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hedgers easy to follow trading signals for major commodity futures mar-
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strategies used by institutions and hedge funds are at your fingertips.
The subscription service includes both daily trading signals and the
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to generate returns, regardless of which way the market is moving. EQS
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and agri-
culture)
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About EQS
Economic Quantitative Strategy (aka EQS) is an investment and trading
strategy that translates economic data and technical indicators into price
direction for commodities. Because of its quantitative nature, EQS has
been rigorously back-tested with 15 years of historical data to ensure the
strategy
works in a
variety of
market
conditions.
Further-
more, be-
cause the
global
economy
changes
over time,
EQS em-
ploys dy-
namic parameters that evolve as the market changes.
About Us
Management
Richard C. Rhodes
Mr. Richard C. Rhodes is the Presi-
dent and Founder of EQS Capital
Management LLC. Richard has a
Bachelor of Science with honors in
Mechanical Engineering from Texas
A&M University and an MBA from
Duke University. He brings almost 25
years of diverse energy experience,
covering all phases of the oil and natural gas value chain from pro-
ducer to end-user. Richard is a licensed Series 3 CTA (Commodity
Trading Advisor) with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
and a member of the National Futures Association.
Richard began his professional career on a drilling rig in West Texas
with Conoco Exploration and Production. Richard continued his oil
and gas career with Koch Industries (ranked as one of the largest
privately-owned companies in the U.S.) where he worked in mid-
stream, refining, pipeline, and distribution operations. During his eight
years with Koch Industries, Richard began as an operations engineer
and later found his true passion in trading, which leveraged his pro-
fessional interests in mathematics and economics. Richard joined
Duke Energy in 2002, where he spent ten years working in the energy
trading department and earned The Pinnacle Award, the company’s
highest honor. Richard then left Duke Energy to launch EQS Capital
Management in 2012.
Jonathan M. Lamb
Mr. Jonathan M. Lamb is the Director of
Business Development at EQS Trading. As
a four year varsity hurdler on the track team
at Ball State University, Jonathan earned
Bachelor of Science degrees in Risk Man-
agement, Insurance, and Economics, and
started working on his PhD in Economics at
North Carolina State University before focus-
ing on business and trading.
As part of the first wave of Millennials to join
the work force, Jonathan started his professional career almost 15
year ago, joining ACES Power Marketing as an Operations Specialist,
providing demand side economics for Co-Op Power Providers before
becoming a Real-Time Electricity Power Trader. He continued his
career trading power for seven years with Progress Energy (now
Duke Energy, the largest utility in the nation) as a Senior Real Time
Trader. Jonathan then opted to become an entrepreneur and started
a consulting firm specializing in finance and economics, owning and
running seven different small businesses before joining EQS in 2015.
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