2/2/2016 Modi wave to take 42-50 seats in UP; 20-24 in Bihar: India Today Group-Cicero poll : Elections, News - India Today

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New Delhi, April 11, 2014 | UPDATED 13:55 IST

If the Hindi heartland is the key to the 16th Lok Sabha, then BJP prime ministerial candidate has it in his pocket. The latest Battleground States Opinion Poll conducted by

polling agency Cicero for the India Today Group shows that the Modi 'hawa' is now at galeforce in the heartland states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Voters are set to give the BJP up to68 of the 120 seats in these two states, the party's vote share projected to jump by agamechanging 17.5 per cent in Uttar Pradesh and 16.7 per cent in Bihar. Mayawati in UttarPradesh and in Bihar are the ones yielding most to Modi.

Modi wave to take 42-50 seats in UP; 20-24 in Bihar: India Today Group-CiceropollVoters are set to give the BJP up to 68 of the 120 seats in these two states, the party'svote share projected to jump by a gamechanging 17.5 per cent in Uttar Pradesh and16.7 per cent in Bihar.

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2/2/2016 Modi wave to take 42-50 seats in UP; 20-24 in Bihar: India Today Group-Cicero poll : Elections, News - India Today

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/narendra-modi-namo-modi-wave-uttar-pradesh-bihar-lok-sabha-polls-india-today-group-cicero-poll/1/355031.html 2/7

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Uttar Pradesh has been at the heart of the Modi campaign with the Gujarat chief ministerhimself contesting from Varanasi in the eastern part of the state. Top Modi aide Amit Shahhas spearheaded the campaign to revive the BJP's fortunes in the state; the Cicero OpinionPoll says the efforts have paid off. The BJP won only 10 seats in Uttar Pradesh in the lastLok Sabha elections but is now projected to increase its tally to 46 seats, give or take four.

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2/2/2016 Modi wave to take 42-50 seats in UP; 20-24 in Bihar: India Today Group-Cicero poll : Elections, News - India Today

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/narendra-modi-namo-modi-wave-uttar-pradesh-bihar-lok-sabha-polls-india-today-group-cicero-poll/1/355031.html 3/7

The Congress and the Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) together hold 27 seats from UttarPradesh. This tally is likely to crash to between 6 and 10, which would be a majorembarrassment to Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi who was hailed for the party's goodshowing in 2009. Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is likely to bag only 9 to 13 seatsunlike the 19 that it won in the last election. The Modi juggernaut is damaging theSamajwadi Party (SP) too but not to the extent that it is hurting the other parties. MulayamSingh Yadav may end up with six seats fewer than its current tally of 21 when votes arecounted on May 16.

Losing ground

Mayawati seems to be ceding the most ground to the BJP, with the BSP vote share likely tocome down by 9.4 per cent from the 27.3 per cent chunk the party bagged last time.According to the Cicero poll, Mayawati has lost a major chunk of the Brahmin, Baniya,Rajput and Jat vote she had won in 2009. In its core support base of Jatavs, the BSPremains the first choice of a substantial 45 per cent of the respondents. But this is 17 percent less than the Jatavs who voted for the BSP in the last elections, with 15 per cent ofthose saying that they would vote for the BJP in these elections.

The SP is holding on to its Yadav-Muslim vote bank with the party's overall vote shareprojected at 22 per cent in comparison with 23.3 per cent in 2009. The SP remains thepreferred choice of half the state's Yadavs, which is only a marginal downgrade from the2009 situation. Despite the Muzaffarnagar riots, the SP has consolidated its vote shareamong the Ashraf and Pasmanda Muslims of Uttar Pradesh. Forty per cent of PasmandaMuslims and 28 per cent of Ashraf Muslims are ready to vote SP.

The Congress vote share is likely to come down to 17 per cent, down by almost 4.5percentage points of what the party aggregated in 2009. The party is losing the upper casteHindu vote. The only community for which the Congress is the top choice is the AshrafMuslims, 32 per cent of whom have indicated that they would like to vote Congress.

The BJP is in a dominant position in all seven major regions of Uttar Pradesh. It is only inthe 14 seats of the Doab region that the vote percentage of the SP is marginally more thanthat of the BJP. The only other region where there is a close contest is in the 14 seats ofNorth-east Uttar Pradesh where the BJP is on the heels of the SP. In Western Uttar Pradesh,Rohailkhand, Poorvanchal, Bundelkhand and Awadh, the BJP has a handsome lead over itscompetitors.

The effect of a Narendra Modi wave can be seen quite clearly in the Cicero Opinion Poll,with NaMo popularity ratings more than that of the next four candidates taken together. Afull 42 per cent of respondents want to see Modi as PM. Rahul Gandhi comes a distantsecond with a 15 per cent popularity rating. Modi's own popularity is 4 per cent more thanthat of his party.

Nitish Kumar may soon rue the day he decided to part ways with the BJP. The India TodayGroup Cicero Opinion Poll indicates a complete rout of the Janata Dal (United). From a highof 20 seats in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the JD(U) tally could crash to as low asbetween 0-2 seats.

The BJP and 's Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) are projected to win 20-24 seats,a jump from the 12 seats they accounted for in the 2009 polls. Lalu Prasad Yadav's

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2/2/2016 Modi wave to take 42-50 seats in UP; 20-24 in Bihar: India Today Group-Cicero poll : Elections, News - India Today

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/narendra-modi-namo-modi-wave-uttar-pradesh-bihar-lok-sabha-polls-india-today-group-cicero-poll/1/355031.html 4/7

Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress are likely to end up with between 15 and 19 seats, abig gain from the six the two parties bagged when they fought separately in 2009.

The biggest takeaway from Bihar is the complete decimation of the JD(U) which isprojected to lose more than six per cent of the votes it bagged last time. The BJP and LJPtaken together are projected to near-double their vote share from 20.5 per cent in 2009 to38 per cent this time. In what should ring alarm bells in the RJD, the BJP seems to havebeen able to pull a substantial chunk of the Yadav vote away from Lalu's party.

Bihar is witnessing a massive upper caste consolidation in favour of Modi, with Bhumihars,Rajputs and Brahmins rallying behind the BJP. Modi is set to hit Nitish where it hurts most,pulling away the JD(U)'s core Kurmi-Koeri vote bank. In fact the number of Kurmis andKoeris who said they would vote for the BJP was twice those who said they would vote forNitish.

Dalit vote

The alliance with Paswan means the BJP has also been able to penetrate deep into the Dalitvote bank. The BJP has doubled its vote share among the Jatavs, Pasis and other Dalitcastes.

Nitish Kumar's calculation was that the Muslims of Bihar would migrate en masse towardsthe JD(U) because of the position he took on Modi. His gamble seems to have flopped withboth Pasmanda and Ashraf Muslims preferring to vote for the RJD-Congress combinerather than the JD(U).

The BJP is the most popular party among young voters of Bihar with 43 per cent indicatingthat they would vote for the lotus. Modi seems to have been able to convince the youth thathe is the best suited to deliver growth and development to the country. The Cicero OpinionPoll also comes up with the surprising find that the BJP's popularity is about 5 per centmore in rural areas than it is in urban areas.

India Today-Cicero Uttar Pradesh pre poll 2014 (Methodology)

The India Today Group commissioned the Uttar Pradesh pre-poll 2014 to Cicero Associatesand Consultants Private Limited. As part of the project, a cross-section sample survey ofUttar Pradesh's electorate covering the entire geographical spread was conducted incompliance with standard international practices of election studies. The fieldwork for thesurvey was conducted between March 30 and April 3, 2014 by field investigators trained indata collection methods. A total of 3,621 interviews were conducted across 180 locationsspread across the state of Uttar Pradesh. 60 out of the 403 assembly constituencies ofUttar Pradesh were sampled, and in each assembly constituency three polling stations wererandomly sampled using the Systematic Random Sampling Technique. Within eachsampled polling station, a total of 20 respondents were randomly sampled, again byemploying the Systematic Random Sampling Technique. These respondents were selectedfrom the official electoral rolls, thus ensuring that each respondent is registered as a voterwithin the sampled polling station. Out of the total targeted sample of 3,600 respondents,3,621 interviews were completed after permitting up to 10per cent substitution based onstrict protocols to ensure and maintain the representative nature of the sample.

India Today-Cicero Bihar pre poll 2014 (Methodology)

The India Today Group commissioned the Bihar pre-poll 2014 to Cicero Associates andConsultants Private Limited. As part of the project, a cross-section sample survey of Bihar'selectorate covering the entire geographical spread was conducted in compliance withstandard international practices of election studies. The fieldwork for the survey wasconducted between March 30 and April 2 of 2014 by field investigators trained in datacollection methods. A total of 1,498 interviews were conducted across 100 locations spreadacross the state of Bihar. 60 out of the 403 assembly constituencies of Uttar Pradesh weresampled, and in each assembly constituency two polling stations were randomly sampledusing the Systematic Random Sampling Technique. Within each sampled polling station, a