newcastle, 11 th december 2015 ben gutteridge, cfa: head of fund research brewin dolphin uk economic...
DESCRIPTION
Source: Bloomberg/Datstream UK HousingTRANSCRIPT
Newcastle, 11th
December 2015
Ben Gutteridge, CFA: Head of Fund Research
Brewin Dolphin
UK Economic Perspective:
UK Consumer – Reasons for Optimism
Source: Bloomberg/BoE
20.020.521.021.522.022.523.023.524.024.525.0
27.027.528.028.529.029.530.030.531.031.5
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Total Employment (millions)
Total employment (LHS) Full time employment (RHS)-8-6-4-202468
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
% Yo
Y
UK Average Earnings
Average Earnings YoY Average Earnings less CPI
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
'05 '07 '09 '11 '13
UK CPI YoY (%)
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%
10%
'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Consumer confidence
Retai
l sale
s YoY
, ex F
uel
UK retail sales and headline consumer confidence
Retail Sales, ex Fuel YoY Consumer Confidence
Source: Bloomberg/Datstream
012345678
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
UK mortgage rates
75% LTV 2 year FixedMortgage Rate90% LTV 2 year FixedMortgage Rate2 Year Swap rate
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
UK House Price Index, rebased to 2007
UK Housing
UK Consumer – Reasons for Caution
UK Forward Rates
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Years Forward
UK 1Yr Forward rates (%)
Source: Bloomberg
Economic Rebalancing?
UK Trade
-16,000
-14,000
-12,000
-10,000
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14
UK Trade in Goods (£bn)
Source: Bloomberg
Currency Strength
60
70
80
90
100
110
Nov 05 Nov 07 Nov 09 Nov 11 Nov 13 Nov 15
Trade Weighted Sterling
Source: Bloomberg
Chinese Private Sector Leverage
Source: Bloomberg
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Sep 05 Sep 07 Sep 09 Sep 11 Sep 13 Sep 15
Chinese Total Social Financing/GDP (%)
Sino the Times
Source: Bloomberg
0
5
10
15
20
25
Sep 05 Sep 07 Sep 09 Sep 11 Sep 13 Sep 15
Chinese Industrial Production YoY (%) Chinese GDP YoY (%)
Yuan Direction
5.8
5.9
6
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15
RMB/USD
Source: Bloomberg
Eurozone lending rates are falling
EU Referendum
• Brexit?
• What are the terms?
• Who will lead the campaigns?
• How will refugee crisis evolve?
• What can we learn from recent elections?
• Consequences for FDI?
• Consequences for markets?
UK Fiscal Consolidation
Deflation is the only constant
0% 50% 100%0%
50%
100%
RussiaBrazil
India
ChinaAsia
UK
Japan
Eurozone
US USEurozoneJapanUKAsiaChinaIndiaBrazilRussia
INFLATION
GROWTH
RECOVERY BOOM
STAGNATION SLOWDOWN
Source: Bloomberg/Brewin Dolphin
• Economic recover seems set to continue• Decent jobs/wage growth• Housing• Private sector leverage a concern
• Global Trade remains a difficult environment• Europe improving• China slowing• Currency Strength
Summary
Disclaimer
The value of investments can fall and you may get back less than you
invested.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
If you invest in currencies other than your own, fluctuations in currency
value will mean that the value of your investment will move independently of
the underlying asset.
The information contained in this document is believed to be reliable and
accurate, but without further investigation cannot be warranted as to
accuracy or completeness.
The opinions expressed in this document are not necessarily the views held
throughout Brewin Dolphin Ltd.