new technology and efficiency enhancements
TRANSCRIPT
Adjusting Expectations in Today’s Global Energy Market
2 This document is proprietary and confidential. No part of this document may be disclosed in any manner to a third party without the prior written consent of WB Services, LLC.
This document is proprietary and confidential. No part of this document may be disclosed in any manner to a third party without the prior written consent of WB Services, LLC. 3
U.S. Motor Gasoline Consumption by year
U.S. Exports of Fuel Ethanol (Thousand Barrels)
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Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010 324 519 1,153 973 414 387 603 707 929 834 930 1,717
2011 1,364 1,425 2,003 2,865 1,743 1,604 3,036 1,246 2,525 2,895 3,634 4,117
2012 1,819 1,785 1,992 1,775 1,397 1,410 1,519 1,206 1,191 1,284 965 1,313
2013 1,518 1,017 1,312 967 952 796 830 1,182 1,299 1,206 2,134 1,525
2014 2,054 1,605 2,139 1,585 1,263 1,431 1,600 1,292 1,354
Corn
Market Trends
DowNatural Gas ($ per MM Btu)Oil - WTI Crude
5
1996 2005 2014
Crude Oil in the United States
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2013 2014
Daily Consumption *source: eia.gov
18.96 mm barrels/day
18.91*mm barrels/day
*estimated
Daily Production *source: eia.gov
7.46 mm barrels/day
8.57* mm barrels/day
*estimated
Price $100/barrel $69/barrel
Peaked in 1970 at ~10mm barrels/day
Crude Oil in the United States
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This document is proprietary and confidential. No part of this document may be disclosed in any manner to a third party without the prior written consent of WB Services, LLC. 8
A Perfect Storm • Reduced demand for crude oil • Increased crude
production/improved technology
• Strong U.S. Dollar
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• Declining rig count • Drilling and
completion costs make shale reserves dependent on high crude prices
• Shale reservoir development become marginal at low crude prices
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Solidify Competitive Position
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• Be proactive vs. reactive • Engage in long-term vision • Maintain and repair aging valuable assets • Lessons learned: focus on liquidity
• Work together to broaden biofuels industry
• Research & development • Industry collaboration
• Trade association (i.e. Prime the Pump) • Technology partners
• Focus on carbon intensity in decision making • California-driven today • Increased relevancy in the future
This document is proprietary and confidential. No part of this document may be disclosed in any manner to a third party without the prior written consent of WB Services, LLC. 12
This document is proprietary and confidential. No part of this document may be disclosed in any manner to a third party without the prior written consent of WB Services, LLC. 13
Broadening the Industry • Corn oil to renewable
diesel • Renewable diesel to jet fuel • Cellulosic component • Ethanol as a “building
block” • Ethanol to jet fuel • Ethanol to aromatics
• CO2 to Gold
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Ultimately, facilities will move toward a true biorefinery model where each plant manufactures products specific to its geographic location, market, plant enhancement, or other synergy.
Maturing Industry • Many plants with little or no debt • Plant consolidation vs. independent • Many plants with strong equity positions • Uncertain policy environment • Aging plants will require increased focus on
maintenance and repair • Shifting philosophy to product diversification • How to best deploy capital
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Evaluating Plant Improvements
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Net Present Value Analysis vs. Simple Payback The difference between the present value of cash inflows and the present value of cash outflows. Discount Rate: %
Life of Project: years
Initial Cost:
Cash Flow: per year (Assumption of equal cash flow for years 2-10)
7
15
$1,200,000
$508,320
Net Present Value: $2,370,735.32
PV of Expected Cash Flows: $3,570,735.32
Calculate
Maximizing Revenue • Plant optimization • Plant technology • Corn oil production • Corn oil to a higher
value motor fuel
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Current focus of WB Services Two bolt on technologies for generating higher revenue co-products from corn oil: biodiesel and renewable diesel.
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18 This document is proprietary and confidential. No part of this document may be disclosed in any manner to a third party without the prior written consent of WB Services, LLC.
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