The New Mexico Drought Status Map is based on expert assessment of variables including, but not lim-ited to, precipitation, drought indices, reservoir levels, streamflow, and field conditions.

Drought Conditions valid through December 12, 2007

December 2007

New Mexico Drought Status Report

Produced by the New Mexico Drought Monitoring Work Group

Chair:

Deborah Bathke, Assistant State Climatologist, New Mexico State University

Members:

Ed Polasko, National Weather Service

Richard Armijo, USDA Natural Resources Conser-vation Service

Roy Jemison, USDA Forest Service

Scott Waltemeyer, US Geo-logical Survey

David Mattern, US Bureau of Land Management

Donald Gallegos, US Army Corps of Engineers

Hilary Brinegar, NM Depart-ment of Agriculture

Bill Ewing, Dept. of Home-land Security & Emergency Management

Gilbert Suazo, Taos Pueblo

Theresa Showa, Navajo Nation

Gregg Garfin, University of Arizona

Drought Programs Coordinator:

Tom McHugh, New Mexico Office of the State Engineer

The December drought status map shows a reduction in both the severity and extent of drought conditions in the Four Corners region when compared to the pre-vious map released by the Moni-toring Work Group (October 2007). In addition, the advisory drought conditions over northern Sandoval and Santa Fe Counties and Los Alamos County have been removed. These changes reflect the abundant precipitation that fell in late November and early De-cember (see next page for a dis-cussion). In the region from Tor-rance County east to the Texas border, the lack of precipitation during October and November outweighed the early December precipitation. Thus, drought con-ditions in this area shows little change when compared to the October map. However, the area of moderate drought in Torrance County increased slightly due to well below normal precipitation amounts on short-term (6-month) time scales. Note: The New Mexico Drought Status Map is based on expert assessment of variables including, but not limited to, precipitation, drought indices, reservoir levels, streamflow, and field conditions. For the most current drought status map please visit http://www.nmdrought.state.nm.us

Precipitation Precipitation during October (12th dri-est) was well below normal statewide, with little or no rainfall reported in far southeast New Mexico. November featured the first significant snow storm for the northern mountains dur-ing the 23rd and 24th. Another storm system occurred from November 30th through December 1st, which brought significant moisture to the south and southwest parts of the state. These events were enough to push many of the western counties to above normal precipitation for the month of Novem-ber. In early December another sys-tem moved through the state bringing impressive snowfall amounts to the northern mountains. The 14-day per-cent of normal map (valid November 29—December 12) shows the large amounts of precipitation that have re-cently occurred. Despite the recent events, water year precipitation to date is well below normal over much of the state. Both the eastern half and the extreme southwest part of the state have amounts that are below 50 percent of normal. Conversely, precipitation amounts over the northwest part of the state over McKinley and Rio Ar-riba Counties are up to130 percent of normal.

Precipitation

Page 2 December 2007

Water YearPercent of Normal Precipitation

Oct. 1, 2007 – Dec. 10, 2007

The figures on this page use preliminary data from the National Weather Service http://www.srh.noaa.gov/abq and the Western Re-gional Climate Center http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/.

Mountain Precipitation valid through November 31, 2007

Page 3 December 2007

New Mexico high elevation precipitation for November 2007 ranged from a low of 38 percent of average in the Canadian River Basin to a high of 230 percent of nor-mal in the Rio Hondo River Basin. Despite the relatively high amount of precipitation in several of the basins dur-ing November, water year percents of average remain below av-erage for all basins except the Rio Hondo. The figure to the right shows the percent of normal precipitation for both SNOTEL and National Weather Service sites. This is a com-bination of data in the table above and the data discussed in the previous sec-tion. This figure shows that for water year to date, precipitation has gener-ally been well below average in the eastern and extreme southwestern part of the state. Note the large gaps in coverage of data that is readily available for making assessments.

Temperature According to preliminary data from the National Climatic Data Center, the average statewide temperature for November was 45.7°F, making November 2007 the 13th warmest Sep-tember in 113 years. Temperatures ranged from 0–8 °F above normal across the state. The largest departures (6–8 °F) were in the southwest and northern parts of the state in Hidalgo, Grant, Catron, and Rio Arriba Counties.

Temperature

Basin

November Percent of Average

November Percent of Last Year

Water Year Percent of Average

Water Year Percent of Last Year

Canadian 38 68 41 36Pecos 77 286 53 133Rio Grande 54 114 49 64Mimbres 192 950 91 83San Francisco/Upper Gila 122 938 67 89Zuni/Bluewater 129 600 54 67Animas/San Juan x x x xRio Hondo 230 377 113 71

The figures and date in this section use preliminary data from the National Climatic Data Center http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/nm.htmlvand the Western Regional Climate Center http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/anom/

Note: More details can be found at http://www.nrcs.usda.gov

Oct. 1, 2007 to Dec. 11, 2007

Page 4 December 2007

The USGS monthly streamflow map indicates that conditions in New Mexico for November 2007 were predominantly nor-mal for most of the state. Small areas of below normal occurred in the north-central and northeast part of the state, while areas of above normal and much above nor-mal occurred in the east-central and southeast.

Streamflow

Note: More details can be found at http://www.nrcs.usda.gov and http://www.usbr.gov/uc/albuq/water/SanJuanChama/Reservoirs/buckets.html

Reservoir Levels for the end of November 2007

ReservoirPercent of Capacity

Percent of Average

Current Storage*

Maximum Storage*

Change in Storage*

1. Navajo 87.4 110.9 1481.5 1696.0 -27.12. Heron 55.7 74.4 222.9 400.0 -0.63. El Vado 61.2 126.3 119.4 195.0 -2.84. Abiquiu 15.2 166.9 181.8 1192.8 0.45. Cochiti 10.3 82.2 50.4 491.0 0.66. Elephant Butte 16.0 28.9 352.0 2195.0 27.17. Caballo 6.7 32.5 22.2 332.0 1.78. Brantley 0.6 29.1 5.7 1006.2 -12.29. Lake Avalon 11.8 20.0 0.4 3.4 -1.110. Sumner 17.7 54.5 17.6 99.5 0.111. Santa Rosa 11.4 78.4 49.8 438.3 -0.112. Costilla 54.4 185.1 8.7 16.0 0.413. Conchas 15.7 21.7 39.9 254.2 -3.7

Most reservoirs in New Mexico were below average at the end of November. The exceptions were Navajo, El Vado, Abiquiu, and Costilla. The largest decrease relative to the end of October was at Navajo and the largest increase at Elephant Butte. Despite the increase, storage at Elephant Butte still remains well-below average (~29%). As of November 29, 2007 usable water in the Ele-phant Butte—Caballo system was at 167, 794 acre-feet. Thus, Article 7 of the Rio Grande compact remains in effect.

Note: For current streamflow information, please visit the US Geological Survey website at: http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/

Page 5 December 2007

Year-to-date (through November 19, 2007), 79,257 acres have burned in New Mexico. The fire potential is expected to persist or increase over eastern New Mexico during the Janu-ary — March 2008 time period. This outlook is based primarily on the cli-mate outlook (see page 7) calling for a dry and warm winter.

Fire Conditions

Note: Current fire condition information and outlooks can be found at http://gacc.nifc.gov/swcc/

Ag Conditions valid through December 10, 2007

Continued dry conditions resulted in soil moisture conditions that were predominantly in the short to very short category in all sec-tors except for the southeast. This means that soil moisture supplies in those areas is signifi-cantly less than what is required for normal crop development and growth. Statewide conditions show that 55 percent of the land has short to very short conditions. The USDA crop summary for early December indicated that freeze and wind damage has been light to moderate. Onions and pecans were in the good to excel-lent category, while wheat was primarily in the very poor to poor category. Cattle and sheep are mostly in the good to excellent category. Range and pasture con-ditions are primarily in the poor to good category.

For the most up-to-date agricultural information please visit the National Agricul-tural Statistics Service website at: http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/index.asp

Page 6 December 2007

National Drought Perspective The U.S. Drought Monitor depicts abnormally dry conditions in the northwest and the eastern parts of the state.

National Products

Note: The National Drought Monitor pro-vides drought analysis at broad scales, which may mask the effects of topography on precipitation and other climate con-trolling variables in the western U.S. Drought assessments made locally by the New Mexico Monitoring Work Group are at finer scales than are currently possible at the National scale, thus targeting prob-lem areas more accurately and enhancing the efforts at the national level.

Note: The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook depicts general, large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by numerous indicators, include short- and long-range statistical and dy-namical forecasts. Short-term events – such as individual storms – cannot be ac-curately forecast more than a few days in advance, so use caution of using the out-look for applications – such as crops – that can be affected by such events. “Ongoing” drought areas are approxi-

Drought Outlook The U.S. Seasonal Drought Out-look is forecasting a potential for development of drought conditions over the eastern part of the state during the December 2007 to Feb-ruary 2008 time period.

The 2007 La Niña remains in full swing across the equatorial Pacific. The NOAA’s Climate Predic-tion Center reports that the current La Niña reached moderate strength during November with much cooler-than-average temperatures extending from the South American coast to beyond the International Date Line. The La Niña is expected to continue into spring 2008. Expected impacts for New Mexico are below-average precipitation due to a northward shift in the stormtrack.

ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation)

Information contained in this report was ob-tained from the follow-ing organizations/websites: National Weather Service http://www.srh.noaa.gov/abq Natural Resources Conservation Service http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov US Geological Survey http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt Southwest Coordination Center http://gacc.nifc.gov/swcc/ New Mexico State University http://weather.nmsu.edu University of Arizona http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas National Climatic Data Center http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov Western and High Plains Re-gional Climate Centers http://www.wrcc.dri.edu http://www.hprcc.unl.edu National Drought Mitigation Center http://drought.unl.edu US Department of Agriculture http://www.nass.usda.gov/nm

For More Information

Please Contact: Deborah J. Bathke

Department of Plant & Environmental Sciences

New Mexico State University

Phone: 505-646-6327 Fax: 505-646-6042

E-mail: djbathke@nmsu.edu

Temperature & Precipitation Outlooks

New Mexico Drought Monitoring Work Group

Governor’s Drought Task Force http://www.nmdrought.state.nm.us

Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks The NOAA Climate Predic-tion Center indicates an in-creased likelihood of above average temperatures through February 2008. For New Mexico a 50% likelihood of above average temperatures is forecasted. The precipitation forecast for New Mexico ind icates an increased probability of below average precipitation with the greatest probability in the southwest part of the state. Despite the "warm and dry" outlook, it does not mean that a few cold winter storms are out of the question. What do these outlooks mean? These outlooks represent a combination of observed tem-perature trends and a contin-ued strengthening of La Niña conditions. The outlooks predict the probability of above-average, average, or below average temperatures and precipitation. They do not forecast the actual magnitude of the variation and thus, the numbers on the maps do not r e f e r t o d e g r e e s o f temperature or to inches of precipitation. The outlooks are a 3 category forecast. The forecast indicates a likelihood of change in one of the extremes (above or be-low average category) with a corresponding adjustment to the other category. The “average” category is usually preserved at a 33.3% likelihood. Contour in-tervals on the maps are at 10%. Thus, the precipitation outlook forecasts a 33.3-39.9% chance for below average precipitation over northern and eastern New Mexico and a 40-49.9% over southwest New Mexico. Likewise, the tem-perature outlook for New Mexico forecasts a 50-59.9% chance for above aver-age temperature

Precipitation Outlook Dec-Jan-Feb

Temperature Outlook Dec-Jan-Feb