new market & portfolio update - colorado pera · 2020. 3. 20. · portfolio is positioned with...
TRANSCRIPT
Market Performance 2020 YTD* vs. 2019 Calendar Year
All returns are presented in unhedged USD terms*YTD performance as of 3/19/2020
2019 Highest Performers
“Risk assets” rebounded in 2019, but turned broadly negative in 2020
-0.9%
13.1%
14.3%
14.5%
16.5%
18.0%
18.1%
23.4%
24.4%
26.4%
31.5%
34.4%
9.0%
-13.4%
-17.6%
-10.0%
-38.2%
-32.0%
-25.5%
-18.8%
-34.6%
-29.5%
-25.1%
-57.7%
-70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
US Dollar Index
Emerging U.S. Dollar Debt
U.S. Corporate High Yield Debt
U.S. Corporate Investment Grade Debt
Broad Commodities
Emerging Market Equities
Japanese Equities
Chinese Equities
European Equities
Global Equities
U.S. Equities
WTI Crude Oil
Return
2020 YTD Return
2019 Return
Asset Class Returns – Perspective
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Comparative Investment Returns ‐ Prior Decade
Stocks
Bonds
Cash
Commodities
All Indexes set to 100 as of 12/31/2009
Benchmark Annualized Return
MSCI ACWI IMI NR w/US Gross 9.5%Bbg Barc US Agg 3.7%FTSE 3 Mo T Bill 0.6%Bbg Commodities TR ‐4.7%
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
12/31 1/13 1/26 2/8 2/21 3/5 3/18
Comparative Investment Returns ‐ 2020 YTD
Stocks
Bonds
Commodities
Cash
All Indexes set to 100 as of 12/31/2019YTD data as of 3/19/2020
Benchmark YTD Return
MSCI ACWI IMI NR w/US Gross ‐29.4%Bbg Barc US Agg ‐0.6%FTSE 3 Mo T Bill 0.3%Bbg Commodities TR ‐23.8%
Global Markets React to COVID-19
‐14.0%
‐13.0%
‐12.0%
‐11.0%
‐10.0%
‐9.0%
‐8.0%
‐7.0%
‐6.0%
‐5.0%
‐4.0%
‐3.0%
‐2.0%
‐1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12/31/2019 1/7/2020 1/14/2020 1/21/2020 1/28/2020 2/4/2020 2/11/2020 2/18/2020 2/25/2020 3/3/2020 3/10/2020 3/17/2020
MSCI ACWI IMI
MSCI ACWI ex‐USA IMI
MSCI USA IMI
(U.S. stocks)
China alerted the WHO of several flu-like cases in Wuhan (12/31)
Fed cuts rates by 50 bps (3/3)
China reports first death (1/11)
First confirmed case in U.S. (1/21)
WHO declares public health emergency of international concern (1/31)
First reported death in U.S. (2/29)
Saudi Arabia and Russia enter oil war(3/9)
WHO declares a pandemic (3/11)
Fed cuts rates to 0-0.25% and will purchase $700 billion in Treasuries and MBS(3/15)
Slowing Global Growth
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Year Over Year Real GDP Growth (Constant 2010 US$)
China World China Growth as % World Growth (right)Source: World Bank
• Forecasts for China’s GDP growth in 2020 have recently been lowered - currently Bloomberg shows an estimate of 5.3% but estimates remain stale. China appears to have weathered the virus better than others are expected to
• Markets reacting to realization of the potential magnitude of drag on global growth –at least in the short-term
“Safe Assets” React to COVID-19 Impact
The sharp rally in bond yields could be caused by a number of factors, including forced selling by investors and governments for cash needs or rebalancing, as well as just a recovery from the “squeeze“ from the prior week. In addition, some may anticipate increased inflationary pressures due to easing (Source: Bloomberg 3/19/2020)
U.S. Dollar Gains
• Dollar strength due to flight to quality and dollar hoarding by borrowers and dollar-based global financials (e.g. Asian insurers, global banks, etc.)
Market Volatility Near Record Highs
10/31/200889.5 3/18/2020
85.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index
Active Risk PolicyPolicyActive risk within marketable securities asset classes (i.e., Global Equity and Fixed Income) and total marketable securities portfolios will not exceed maximums
StatusActive risk levels are within policy limits
Portfolio
Three-Year Historical Tracking Error in Basis
Points December 31, 2019
(preliminary)
Active Risk Policy Maximum in Basis Points
Global Equity 100 225
Fixed Income 16 100
Total MarketableSecurities
86 150
Active Risk
Investment Activities
Looking to hire in a number of areas: Operations, Private Equity, Fixed Income and Equities
The PERAdvantage 2065 Fund will be added to the CAP lineup effective March 20, 2020. The PERAdvantage 2020 Fund merged into the Income Fund in November 2019
The BlackRock Passive Fixed Income fund was transitioned to PERA Internal Core in January. PERA’s Fixed Income asset class is now 100% internally managed
Investment Operations established a Business Continuity Plan with Northern Trust to ensure continued management of the portfolio if PERA systems are unavailable
Investment-Related Strategic Initiative Projects
Project StatusUpdated Proxy Voting Statement
Evaluation stages – analysis of existing policy and potential enhancements; expected completion 1Q2021
Direct investment in private asset classes
Exploratory stages – we continue to explore new, but not fully direct, investment structures which provide more discretionary decision making, flexible capital deployments, and better transparency
Participation on Secure Savings Board
Recommendation sent to the Governor and Legislature on February 28, 2020. Bill to create the Colorado Secure Savings Plan announced on March 9, 2020
Refreshed technology roadmap
In progress – currently reviewing a consulting firm’s proposal to complete a private asset class fund expense review; expected completion mid-2020
DC plan: improved alignment of preferences and product offerings
In progress – member research, evaluation of current and proposed options by Defined Contribution Committee; expected completion 2021
Portfolio Monitor
Asset Class StrategyGlobal Equity Portfolio retains higher quality bias. No material sector or geographic
overweights or underweights relative to the benchmark.
Fixed Income The current environment is volatile. Treasury yields are at historic lows while valuations in other asset classes have become more attractive. The portfolio is positioned with a modest overweight to spread products and has no significant duration deviation versus the benchmark.
Private Equity Vintage construction underway with a focus on high quality re-up opportunities. Global health concerns could impact size and timing of commitments. A prolonged market correction and/or challenged portfolio company fundamentals could lead to interesting opportunities in the distressed and turnaround areas.
Real Estate In an uncertain interest rate and asset valuation environment, difficulties exist in pursuit of new acquisitions. Team is focusing efforts on existing strategic partner relationships to expand long term, core, income oriented strategies and investment vehicles.
Alternatives Allocating to opportunistic and special situations funds, which can tactically invest across multiple asset classes. Also focused on diversifying strategies such as healthcare credit, specialty crops/agriculture and Asia private credit opportunities.
Asset Allocation PolicyPolicyAsset class weights will be within permissible ranges
StatusAll asset class weights within permissible ranges
Asset Class2020 Policy Benchmark
Weight
Actual Weight*
(February 29, 2020)
Range Risk Weight(December 31, 2019)
Global Equity 56.0% 54.6% 48%–60% 73.2%
Fixed Income 23.5% 23.9% 18%–28% -0.7%
Private Equity 8.5% 8.3% 4%–13% 16.3%
Real Estate 8.5% 9.2% 4%–13% 8.4%
Alternatives 3.5% 3.6% 0%–12% 1.7%
Cash and Short Term**
0.0% 0.4% 0%–3% 1.1%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
*Transitional cash remains within respective asset classes**Includes Cash Overlay
Annual Returns(1988-2019)
‐10%
‐5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
‐50% ‐40% ‐30% ‐20% ‐10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Bloo
mbe
rg Barclays U
S Ag
g Bo
nd In
dex
MSCI ACWI
Stocks vs. Bonds Annual Returns
Stocks down, bonds up
Stocks down, bonds down Stocks up, bonds down
Stocks up, bonds up
2008
1995
2009
2003
1991
2000
2019
1994
2002
1990 2001
2013
1999
1989
Dot‐Com BubbleGreat Recession
YTD 3/19
Calendar Year Returns
*Large Growth – Russell 1000 Growth; Large Value – Russell 1000 Value; Small Growth – Russell 2000 Growth; Small Value – Russell 2000 Value; ACWI – MSCI ACWI; EAFE – MSCI EAFE; EM – MSCI EM; REITs – FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs; Bonds – Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate; High Yield – Bloomberg Barclays U.S.Corporate High Yield; Cmdty – S&P GSCI Composite Index; HFOF – HFRI FOF Composite Index; NCREIF – NCREIF ODCE Index
**2020 Returns are through February 29. 2020. NCREIF ODCE Index returns are through December 31, 2019.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020**Sm Growth NCREIF REITs Sm Growth REITs NCREIF Sm Value EM NCREIF Lg Growth NCREIF
29.1 15.0 19.7 43.3 28.0 14.0 31.7 37.3 7.4 36.4 4.4REITs REITs EM Sm Value Lg Value Lg Growth Lg Value Lg Growth Bonds REITs Bonds27.9 8.3 18.2 34.5 13.5 5.7 17.3 30.2 0.0 28.7 3.8
Sm Value Bonds Sm Value Lg Growth Lg Growth REITs High Yield EAFE Lg Growth Sm Growth HFOF24.5 7.8 18.1 33.5 13.1 2.8 17.1 25.0 -1.5 28.5 -1.1EM High Yield Lg Value Lg Value NCREIF Total Fund Cmdty ACWI High Yield ACWI High Yield18.9 5.0 17.5 32.5 11.5 1.5 11.4 24.0 -2.1 26.6 -1.4
Lg Growth Lg Growth EAFE ACWI Bonds Bonds Sm Growth Sm Growth Total Fund Lg Value Total Fund16.7 2.6 17.3 22.8 6.0 0.5 11.3 22.2 -3.5 26.5 -4.0
Lg Value Total Fund ACWI EAFE Total Fund HFOF EM Total Fund REITs EAFE Lg Growth15.5 1.9 16.1 22.8 5.7 -0.3 11.2 18.1 -4.0 22.0 -4.7
NCREIF Lg Value High Yield Total Fund Sm Growth EAFE REITs Lg Value HFOF Total Fund REITs15.3 0.4 15.8 15.6 5.6 -0.8 8.6 13.7 -4.1 19.5 -5.8
High Yield Cmdty Lg Growth NCREIF ACWI Sm Growth ACWI REITs Lg Value EM Sm Growth15.1 -1.2 15.3 12.9 4.2 -1.4 7.9 8.7 -8.3 18.4 -8.2
Total Fund Sm Growth Sm Growth HFOF Sm Value ACWI NCREIF Sm Value ACWI Cmdty ACWI14.0 -2.9 14.6 9.0 4.2 -2.4 7.8 7.8 -9.4 17.6 -9.1
ACWI Sm Value Total Fund High Yield HFOF Lg Value Total Fund HFOF Sm Growth Sm Value EM12.7 -5.5 12.9 7.4 3.4 -3.8 7.3 7.7 -11.7 15.5 -9.7
Cmdty HFOF NCREIF REITs High Yield High Yield Lg Growth High Yield Sm Value High Yield EAFE9.0 -5.7 9.8 2.9 2.5 -4.5 7.1 7.5 -12.9 14.3 -10.9
EAFE ACWI HFOF Cmdty EM Sm Value Bonds NCREIF EAFE Bonds Lg Value7.8 -7.3 4.8 -1.2 -2.2 -7.5 2.6 6.7 -13.8 8.7 -11.6
Bonds EAFE Bonds Bonds EAFE EM EAFE Cmdty Cmdty HFOF Sm Value6.5 -12.1 4.2 -2.0 -4.9 -14.9 1.0 5.8 -13.8 6.4 -14.6
HFOF EM Cmdty EM Cmdty Cmdty HFOF Bonds EM NCREIF Cmdty5.7 -18.4 0.1 -2.6 -33.1 -32.9 0.5 3.5 -14.6 3.1 -18.3