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New Jersey’s Clean Energy Program: Solar Market Update Charlie Garrison Solar Transition Meeting 2/16/2012

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Page 1: New Jersey’s Clean Energy Program: Solar Market Update Charlie Garrison Solar Transition Meeting 2/16/2012

New Jersey’s Clean Energy Program: Solar Market Update

Charlie Garrison

Solar Transition Meeting 2/16/2012

Page 2: New Jersey’s Clean Energy Program: Solar Market Update Charlie Garrison Solar Transition Meeting 2/16/2012

Solar Installed Capacity Data

• The installed solar capacity as of 1/31/12 is approximately 649.1 MW. – Approximately 84 MW installed in current month

• The solar capacity project pipeline as of 1/31/12 is approximately 548 MW. –The pipeline capacity was 618.7 MW on

12/31/11.

Page 3: New Jersey’s Clean Energy Program: Solar Market Update Charlie Garrison Solar Transition Meeting 2/16/2012

Solar Installed Capacity History

As Of MW Installed MW Pipeline Combined MW

8/31/2011 430,392.8 541,234.9 971,627.7

9/30/2011 447,712.8 569,296.1 1,017,008.9

10/31/2011 490,494.2 571,676.9 1,062,171.1

11/30/2011 531,725.6 599,375.9 1,131,101.5

12/31/2011 565,851.9 618,717.2 1,184,569.1

1/31/2012 649,161.8 547,968.3 1,197,130.1

NJCEP Solar Pipeline Plus Installed Projects History as of 1/31/12

Page 4: New Jersey’s Clean Energy Program: Solar Market Update Charlie Garrison Solar Transition Meeting 2/16/2012

Solar Capacity By Interconnection Type

Installed Solar Projects as of 1/31/12

Interconnection Type Qty System Size Percent

Behind the meter 13,988 497,180.6 76.6%

Direct Grid Supply 70 151,981.1 23.4%

Totals 14,058 649,161.8 100.0%

Solar Project Pipeline as of 1/31/12

Interconnection Type Qty System Size Percent

Behind the meter 4,706 418,560.9 76.4%

Direct Grid Supply 26 129,407.4 23.6%

Totals 4,732 547,968.3 100.0%

Page 5: New Jersey’s Clean Energy Program: Solar Market Update Charlie Garrison Solar Transition Meeting 2/16/2012

NJCEP Solar Generation Forecast

This data is provided for informational purposes only. Past levels of installed capacity rates are not predictive of future values, and any persons considering investment in the solar market should perform their independent due diligence.

Page 6: New Jersey’s Clean Energy Program: Solar Market Update Charlie Garrison Solar Transition Meeting 2/16/2012

NJCEP Solar Generation Forecast

Assumptions used in forecast of annual capacity added: • Low - Based upon 50% of incremental RPS requirement

• Med - Based upon incremental RPS requirement

• High - Based upon 6 month average install rate, declining 20% per year

Energy Yr Low Med High

2012 381,216 402,216 421,216 2013 64,200 128,400 306,000 2014 73,300 146,600 244,800 2015 80,450 160,900 183,600 2016 77,050 154,100 122,400

Estimated Capacity Added By Energy Year

Page 7: New Jersey’s Clean Energy Program: Solar Market Update Charlie Garrison Solar Transition Meeting 2/16/2012

NJCEP Solar Generation ForecastSummary By Energy Year - As of 1/31/12

Energy Yr (RPS Req) Item Low Med High

Est Avail (MWh) 628,700 633,200 638,200 % of RPS Requirement 142.2% 143.3% 144.4%

MW Difference 155.6 159.3 163.5

Est Avail (MWh) 1,079,200 1,150,300 1,292,800 % of RPS Requirement 181.1% 193.0% 216.9%

MW Difference 402.7 461.9 580.7

Est Avail (MWh) 1,458,600 1,679,300 2,121,100 % of RPS Requirement 188.9% 217.5% 274.8%

MW Difference 572.2 756.1 1,124.3

Est Avail (MWh) 1,754,600 2,217,500 3,027,600 % of RPS Requirement 181.8% 229.8% 313.7%

MW Difference 658.0 1,043.8 1,718.8

Est Avail (MWh) 1,951,900 2,751,400 3,921,900 % of RPS Requirement 169.7% 239.3% 341.0%

MW Difference 668.3 1,334.5 2,309.9

EY2013 (596 GWh)

EY2014 (772 GWh)

EY2015 (965 GWh)

EY2016 (1150 GWh)

EY2012 (442 GWh)

Page 8: New Jersey’s Clean Energy Program: Solar Market Update Charlie Garrison Solar Transition Meeting 2/16/2012

NJCEP Solar Generation Forecast

Estimated Available SRECs By Energy Year

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Energy Year

SR

EC

s A

va

ilab

le (

Th

ou

sa

nd

s)

RPS Req Low Med High