new hampshire’s changing wintertime climate: impact on forestry practices jennifer wurtzel (u....
TRANSCRIPT
New Hampshire’s Changing Wintertime Climate: New Hampshire’s Changing Wintertime Climate: Impact on Forestry Practices Impact on Forestry Practices
Jennifer Wurtzel (U. Michigan)
Dr. Cameron Wake, Advisor (U. New Hampshire)
Research & Discover 2007Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space
University of New Hampshire
Hansen et al. (1988)http://www.giss.nasa.gov
Global Temperature 1880-2005Global Temperature 1880-2005(meteorological stations)(meteorological stations)
-1
0
1
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Annual Mean5-year Mean
Tem
pe
ratu
re A
no
ma
ly (
oF
)
Year
16
20
24
28
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Tem
pera
ture
(oF
)
Year
2.3 oF warming over 103 years4.3 oF warming over 33 years
Time-series represents an aerially weighted average of data from 136 stations. Data from the NOAA-NCDC and Environment Canada
Winter Temperature in Northeast US Winter Temperature in Northeast US & Canadian Maritimes: 1900-2002 & Canadian Maritimes: 1900-2002
Data From: Winter Recreation and Climate Variability in New Hampshire: 1984 - 2006Report available online at: http://www.carboncoalition.org/
Difference Difference PercentWinter Indicator in number in revenue Change
Alpine Skier Days 309,495 $11.5 million 14%
Nordic Skier Days 43,129 $0.7 million 30%
Snowmobile Licenses 10,892 $1.0 million 26%
Difference Between 5 Cold, Snowy Winters and 5 Warm, Slushy Winters
*Slide from Wake & Burakowski Presentation
(94, 96, 01, 03, 05) (95, 97, 00, 02, 06)
Some Recent HeadlinesSome Recent Headlines
Logging in New Logging in New HampshireHampshire
• Where?• Why?• Mud Season• Road Postings
Question: Question: How many days each year can How many days each year can
logging trucks use the roads logging trucks use the roads between Dec 1 and Mar 31?between Dec 1 and Mar 31?
MethodsMethods
• Obtain Data & Guidelines Formula
• Modify Formula (Freeze-Thaw Formula)
• Apply Freeze-Thaw Formula to locations
• Analyze Data
• Sensitivity Analysis
Obtaining Data and Obtaining Data and Modifying Guidelines FormulaModifying Guidelines Formula
• Town Records • Guidelines
– When to post roads in spring– When to lift road bans in spring
• Modifications (Freeze-Thaw)– When are roads frozen – When are roads thawing
Freeze-Thaw FormulaFreeze-Thaw FormulaSome terminologySome terminology
• Freezing Degree Days (FDD) = 32°F – Daily Mean Temp – When temp ≤ 32°F
• Melting Degree Days (MDD) = Daily Mean Temp – 29°F– When temp ≥ 29°F
• Cumulative Freezing Degree Days (CFDD) = ΣFDD
• Cumulative Melting Degree Days (CMDD) = ΣMDD
Road considered frozen when CFDD > 10
Road considered thawed when CMDD > 10
Mt. Sunapee Frozen Road Days
2030405060708090
100110
1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Year
Days
15 days lost since 1970
~4 days per decade
Berlin Frozen Road Days
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Year
Days
18 days lost since 1970
~5 days per decade
ResultsResults
Frozen Road Days by Region
North (High Timber Yield, 5)
Central (Med Timber Yield, 5)
South (Low Timber Yield, 5)
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
Year
Day
s
Frozen Road Days by Region
North (High Timber Yield, 5)
Central (Med Timber Yield, 5)
South (Low Timber Yield, 5)
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
Year
Day
s
Sensitivity AnalysisSensitivity Analysis
ConclusionsConclusions
• Clear negative trend indicating a loss of over two days per decade
• Potential need for change in forestry practices
• Loss of revenue from lumber industry– Presently, $116,000 per lost day
• Further evidence of changing climate in New England
Remote SensingRemote Sensing
– Can be combined with information from logging industry and mills for more accurate view of forestry activity
ledaps.nascom.nasa.gov
• LEDAPS– Remote sensing
(Landsat) can be used to analyze rates of forest-cover conversion, disturbance and recovery
ledaps.nascom.nasa.gov
AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements
Research & Discover, EOS, UNH Technology Transfer Center,Public Works Departments of New Hampshire
Dr. Cameron Wake
Dr. George Hurtt
EriC Kelsey
Michael Routhier
Deborah Smolen
Special thanks to:Special thanks to: