New Directions in US-New Directions in US-China-ASEAN Relations: China-ASEAN Relations: Opportunity and Choice Opportunity and Choice

Ju, HailongJu, HailongProfessor, Executive Director of China’s Professor, Executive Director of China’s

South China Sea Strategy ServiceSouth China Sea Strategy Service

Jinan UniversityJinan University

OutlineOutline

Disputes, Diverse forces, and different directionsDisputes, Diverse forces, and different directions:: 2009-20132009-2013

The Decisive Factors: Transformation of Regional The Decisive Factors: Transformation of Regional OrderOrder

The Choices and the OpportunitiesThe Choices and the Opportunities The ConclusionThe Conclusion

Disputes, Diverse forces, and different Disputes, Diverse forces, and different directionsdirections:: 2009-2013 2009-2013

The increasing tension of SCS disputesThe increasing tension of SCS disputesThree different force in determining the Three different force in determining the

futurefutureTwo different directions of the futureTwo different directions of the future

Disputes, Diverse forces, and different directionsDisputes, Diverse forces, and different directions:: 2009- 2009-20132013

The increasing tension of SCS disputesThe increasing tension of SCS disputes The end of December 2009 is the deadline of the outer The end of December 2009 is the deadline of the outer

continental shelf application to the United Nations.continental shelf application to the United Nations. As the applications were proposed by Vietnam, As the applications were proposed by Vietnam,

Philippine, Malaysia, and China. The South China Sea Issue Philippine, Malaysia, and China. The South China Sea Issue was changed knottier and knottier as the overlapping was changed knottier and knottier as the overlapping declarations were declared. declarations were declared.

Disputes of oil and gas exploitation, confront with each Disputes of oil and gas exploitation, confront with each other around controversial islands, targeted “shuttle other around controversial islands, targeted “shuttle diplomacy” and diplomatic cooperation, suggestive joint diplomacy” and diplomatic cooperation, suggestive joint military exercises, all together made SCS a regional hotspot military exercises, all together made SCS a regional hotspot with crisis.with crisis.

Disputes, Diverse forces, and different directionsDisputes, Diverse forces, and different directions:: 2009- 2009-20132013

Different force in determining the future: Different force in determining the future: Hilary announced that America returned to South East Hilary announced that America returned to South East

Asia, and the U.S. had a huge stake in SCS. The U.S. Asia, and the U.S. had a huge stake in SCS. The U.S. strengthen the relations with almost all the ASEAN strengthen the relations with almost all the ASEAN countries, and made them focused on the regional security countries, and made them focused on the regional security issues. The U.S. is the most important force who can issues. The U.S. is the most important force who can determine the future.determine the future.

AS ASEAN's rotating presidency, Vietnam took the AS ASEAN's rotating presidency, Vietnam took the strong policies on SCSI and lead the ASEAN policies strong policies on SCSI and lead the ASEAN policies focused on the SCS security in 2010. The SCSI was also focused on the SCS security in 2010. The SCSI was also the most important problem in the Aquino ’s foreign Ⅲthe most important problem in the Aquino ’s foreign Ⅲpolicies. Other ASEAN countries still took development as policies. Other ASEAN countries still took development as more important. ASEAN is the 2ed determine force.more important. ASEAN is the 2ed determine force.

China is the biggest economic power. It deserve to be the China is the biggest economic power. It deserve to be the 3ir important determine force.3ir important determine force.

Disputes, Diverse forces, and different directionsDisputes, Diverse forces, and different directions:: 2009-20132009-2013

Two different directions of the future:Two different directions of the future: The first direction: take regional security as the most The first direction: take regional security as the most

important thing in the future.important thing in the future. The U.S. has led this direction. Vietnam and Philippine had gone on The U.S. has led this direction. Vietnam and Philippine had gone on

the same path with the U.S. for their economical interests.the same path with the U.S. for their economical interests. The second direction: take development as the most The second direction: take development as the most

important thing in the future.important thing in the future. Although China had paid more attention to the regional security Although China had paid more attention to the regional security

problem, it still took economic developing as the most important task problem, it still took economic developing as the most important task for the future. for the future.

Most ASEAN countries took economic developing as the more Most ASEAN countries took economic developing as the more important things than regional security.important things than regional security.

The Decisive Factors: Transformation The Decisive Factors: Transformation of Regional Orderof Regional Order

Rebalancing policy, SCSI, and “divide and rule”Rebalancing policy, SCSI, and “divide and rule” The dilemmas for a new rising power to continue The dilemmas for a new rising power to continue

a peaceful developing road a peaceful developing road Swing between economical cooperation Swing between economical cooperation

and security oppositeand security opposite

The Decisive Factors: Transformation of The Decisive Factors: Transformation of Regional OrderRegional Order

Rebalancing policy, SCSI, and “divide and rule” Rebalancing policy, SCSI, and “divide and rule” Asia-Pacific strategic situation has been dominated by the U.S. for Asia-Pacific strategic situation has been dominated by the U.S. for

more than 60 years. The U.S.-Japan-Asian tigers-China and other Asian more than 60 years. The U.S.-Japan-Asian tigers-China and other Asian countries constitute a echelon allocation system in power level. This countries constitute a echelon allocation system in power level. This system support the US-led East Asian order.system support the US-led East Asian order.

The development of Chinese economical power and the decline of The development of Chinese economical power and the decline of Japanese economical power impacted the US-led East Asian order. China Japanese economical power impacted the US-led East Asian order. China became the leading challenger to the US-led order.became the leading challenger to the US-led order.

In order to hold the dominating power in East Asia, Obama In order to hold the dominating power in East Asia, Obama implemented the rebalancing policy. The SCSI offered convenience to implemented the rebalancing policy. The SCSI offered convenience to the policy and elicited hostile suspicions among China and it’s neighbors. the policy and elicited hostile suspicions among China and it’s neighbors.

The East Asia countries had been sent into a tailspin for lacking of The East Asia countries had been sent into a tailspin for lacking of political and security mutual trust, and been divided and ruled by the political and security mutual trust, and been divided and ruled by the power beyond Asia.power beyond Asia.

The Decisive Factors: Transformation of The Decisive Factors: Transformation of Regional OrderRegional Order

The dilemmas for a new rising power to Committee The dilemmas for a new rising power to Committee peaceful developmentpeaceful development

China has become the second largest economy, but it’s just China has become the second largest economy, but it’s just a quantitative development. It will take China very long a quantitative development. It will take China very long time to accomplish the economic and social transition. time to accomplish the economic and social transition. China need peaceful environmental to develop itself.China need peaceful environmental to develop itself.

China-ASEAN free trade zone was established. The China-ASEAN free trade zone was established. The economical cooperation among “10+3” frame were economical cooperation among “10+3” frame were expected.expected.

The development of China and the economical cooperation The development of China and the economical cooperation impact the impact the US-ledUS-led economic order in East Asia. It has economic order in East Asia. It has potentially threaten the leading position of the U.S. in East potentially threaten the leading position of the U.S. in East AsiaAsia

The crisis related to SCSI has put China smear into a kind The crisis related to SCSI has put China smear into a kind of menace to international rules and regional securityof menace to international rules and regional security

The Decisive Factors: Transformation The Decisive Factors: Transformation of Regional Orderof Regional Order

Swing between economical cooperation and security Swing between economical cooperation and security oppositeopposite

Most ASEAN countries need a long peaceful time to develop Most ASEAN countries need a long peaceful time to develop themselves. However, no one can ignore the oil interests in SCS. themselves. However, no one can ignore the oil interests in SCS. especially for those depending on the high energy consumption.especially for those depending on the high energy consumption.

It’s a good chance for those who want to make more interests from It’s a good chance for those who want to make more interests from SCS after the rebalance policies have been carried out. Getting stuck SCS after the rebalance policies have been carried out. Getting stuck with America means more security protection and more oil interests with America means more security protection and more oil interests possibility.possibility.

China is the imaginary enemy of the rebalance policies of U.S..China is the imaginary enemy of the rebalance policies of U.S.. China is the most important trade partner of most ASEAN countries.China is the most important trade partner of most ASEAN countries. No one can eat his cake and have it when he has to choose between No one can eat his cake and have it when he has to choose between

economical cooperation and security oppositeeconomical cooperation and security opposite

The Choices and the OpportunitiesThe Choices and the Opportunities

The choices of the U.S.The choices of the U.S.The choice of China.The choice of China.The choice of ASEAN countries.The choice of ASEAN countries.The OpportunitiesThe Opportunities

The Choices and the OpportunitiesThe Choices and the Opportunities

The choice of the U.S.The choice of the U.S. The U.S. has been regarding China as the main imaginary enemy in The U.S. has been regarding China as the main imaginary enemy in

East Asia, and East Asia, and using it’s hard power, soft power, and smart using it’s hard power, soft power, and smart power to contain and engage China since the end of last power to contain and engage China since the end of last century. century.

The SCSI has been used as a point of carrying through the The SCSI has been used as a point of carrying through the U.S.’s strategy of “dividing and ruling”.U.S.’s strategy of “dividing and ruling”.

The U.S. has effectively influenced the security relations The U.S. has effectively influenced the security relations among China and ASEAN countries.among China and ASEAN countries.

The Choices and the OpportunitiesThe Choices and the OpportunitiesThe choice of China.The choice of China. China has insisted on peaceful developing for China has insisted on peaceful developing for

more than 40 years, and has made significant more than 40 years, and has made significant achievements in economic construction.achievements in economic construction.

However, the growing SCS disputes and security However, the growing SCS disputes and security pressure has forced some Chinese scholars and pressure has forced some Chinese scholars and officials to awake to the fact that it’s necessary for officials to awake to the fact that it’s necessary for Chinese government to recognize the peaceful Chinese government to recognize the peaceful foreign policy and try to do something to deal with foreign policy and try to do something to deal with the predicament of SCSI. the predicament of SCSI.

The Choices and the OpportunitiesThe Choices and the Opportunities

The choice of ASEAN countries.The choice of ASEAN countries. Most ASEAN countries know that opposition for Most ASEAN countries know that opposition for

security reasons will not only increase the cost of security reasons will not only increase the cost of development, but also decrease the chance of development, but also decrease the chance of economic cooperation.economic cooperation.

It’s difficult for most ASEAN countries to put the It’s difficult for most ASEAN countries to put the SCS disputes aside and seek common development. SCS disputes aside and seek common development.

Setting rules and codes to deal with the disputes Setting rules and codes to deal with the disputes and bind Chinese international conducts are more and bind Chinese international conducts are more important than common development.important than common development.

The Opportunities and the ChoicesThe Opportunities and the ChoicesThe OpportunitiesThe Opportunities The relations between China and the U.S. has The relations between China and the U.S. has

changed since Xi came to office. There will be more changed since Xi came to office. There will be more trust between these two countries.trust between these two countries.

The competition for international order between The competition for international order between China and the U.S. is changing into the competition China and the U.S. is changing into the competition between economic cooperation and security opposite.between economic cooperation and security opposite.

ASEAN countries will get more chance when facing ASEAN countries will get more chance when facing the dilemmas of choosing between the two competing the dilemmas of choosing between the two competing powers. powers.

The ConclusionThe Conclusion

The ASEAN countries will be the decisive The ASEAN countries will be the decisive power for the future.power for the future.

The choice of ASEAN countries will not only The choice of ASEAN countries will not only be the most important factor for the competition be the most important factor for the competition between China and the U.S., but also for the between China and the U.S., but also for the peaceful development of East Asia. peaceful development of East Asia.

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