new dimension for offshore investment · 2020-03-11 · new dimension for offshore investment 1...

New Dimension for Offshore Investment1 September 2015

Dr. Kongkiat Opaswongkarn

Chief Executive OfficerAsia Plus Group Holdings PCL

Why Invest Globally ?

2

• Diversification

• Products (Equities / Fixed Incomes / Mutual Funds / Property Assets)

• Markets

• Currencies

PROS

• FX Risk

• Political Risk

CONS

• Capital Gains Tax

OBSTACLES

Market Cap Comparison

3As of 24 August 2015

Rank Country Market Cap (Billion USD) % of World % of GDP

World 60,861 100.0 85

1 USA 22,390 36.8 146

2 China 5,462 10.3 52

3 Japan 4,731 7.4 90

4 Hong Kong 3,817 6.6 1,505

5 UK 3,391 5.5 137

6 France 1,931 3.1 69

7 Germany 1,771 2.8 49

8 Canada 1,664 2.7 114

9 Switzerland 1,610 2.5 236

10 India 1,407 2.4 84

11 South Korea 1,077 1.8 91

12 Australia 931 1.6 78

13 Taiwan 745 1.3 183

14 Spain 703 1.1 52

15 Italy 596 1.0 26

16 Brazil 536 0.9 34

17 Saudi Arabia 452 0.7 65

18 Singapore 450 0.7 189

22 Russia 365 0.6 17

25 Malaysia 337 0.6 145

27 Thailand 336 0.5 107

28 Indonesia 303 0.5 46

29 Philippines 227 0.4 94

Macro View - USA

4

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Mar

-06

Mar

-07

Mar

-08

Mar

-09

Mar

-10

Mar

-11

Mar

-12

Mar

-13

Mar

-14

Mar

-15

GDP Growth YoY

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Unemployment Rate

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

ISM Manufacturing

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Mill

ion

s

Housing Starts

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Dollar Index

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Export Growth YoY

As of July 2015

Stock Market - US

5

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200Fe

b-9

5

Feb

-96

Feb

-97

Feb

-98

Feb

-99

Feb

-00

Feb

-01

Feb

-02

Feb

-03

Feb

-04

Feb

-05

Feb

-06

Feb

-07

Feb

-08

Feb

-09

Feb

-10

Feb

-11

Feb

-12

Feb

-13

Feb

-14

Feb

-15

S&P 500 Index

S&P 500 P/E (RHS)

As of 24 August 2015

Stock Market - US

6

10

14

18

22

26

30

34

38

42

46

50

400

900

1,400

1,900

2,400

2,900

3,400

3,900

4,400

4,900

5,400Fe

b-9

5

Feb

-96

Feb

-97

Feb

-98

Feb

-99

Feb

-00

Feb

-01

Feb

-02

Feb

-03

Feb

-04

Feb

-05

Feb

-06

Feb

-07

Feb

-08

Feb

-09

Feb

-10

Feb

-11

Feb

-12

Feb

-13

Feb

-14

Feb

-15

Nasdaq Index

Nasdaq P/E (RHS)


Macro View - Europe

7As of July 2015

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Mar

-06

Mar

-07

Mar

-08

Mar

-09

Mar

-10

Mar

-11

Mar

-12

Mar

-13

Mar

-14

Mar

-15

GDP Growth YoY

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Unemployment Rate

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Consumer Price Index YoY

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

Au

g-1

2

Dec

-12

Ap

r-1

3

Au

g-1

3

Dec

-13

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Dec

-14

Ap

r-1

5

Manufacturing PMI

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

EUR/USD

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Mar

-06

Mar

-07

Mar

-08

Mar

-09

Mar

-10

Mar

-11

Mar

-12

Mar

-13

Mar

-14

Mar

-15

Export Growth YoY

Stock Market - Europe

8

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Feb

-95

Feb

-96

Feb

-97

Feb

-98

Feb

-99

Feb

-00

Feb

-01

Feb

-02

Feb

-03

Feb

-04

Feb

-05

Feb

-06

Feb

-07

Feb

-08

Feb

-09

Feb

-10

Feb

-11

Feb

-12

Feb

-13

Feb

-14

Feb

-15

Euro Stoxx 600 Index

Euro Stoxx 600 P/E (RHS)


Macro View - Japan

9As of July 2015

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Mar

-06

Mar

-07

Mar

-08

Mar

-09

Mar

-10

Mar

-11

Mar

-12

Mar

-13

Mar

-14

Mar

-15

GDP Growth YoY

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Unemployment Rate

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Consumer Price Index YoY

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

Dec

-03

Dec

-04

Dec

-05

Dec

-06

Dec

-07

Dec

-08

Dec

-09

Dec

-10

Dec

-11

Dec

-12

Dec

-13

Dec

-14

Debt as Percent of GDP

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

USD/JPY

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Export Growth YoY

Stock Market - Japan

10


5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000Fe

b-9

5

Feb

-96

Feb

-97

Feb

-98

Feb

-99

Feb

-00

Feb

-01

Feb

-02

Feb

-03

Feb

-04

Feb

-05

Feb

-06

Feb

-07

Feb

-08

Feb

-09

Feb

-10

Feb

-11

Feb

-12

Feb

-13

Feb

-14

Feb

-15

Nikkei 225 Index

Nikkei 225 P/E (RHS)

Macro View - China

11As of July 2015

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

Mar

-06

Mar

-07

Mar

-08

Mar

-09

Mar

-10

Mar

-11

Mar

-12

Mar

-13

Mar

-14

Mar

-15

GDP Growth YoY

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Manufacturing PMI

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

House Price Growth Tier 1 YoY

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

USD/CNY

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Export Growth YoY

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Jan

-13

Jul-

13

Jan

-14

Jul-

14

Jan

-15

Jul-

15

Outstanding Balance of Margin Purchase and Debt Payment

Trill

ion

Stock Market - China

12


5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

200

1,200

2,200

3,200

4,200

5,200

6,200

7,200

Feb

-95

Feb

-96

Feb

-97

Feb

-98

Feb

-99

Feb

-00

Feb

-01

Feb

-02

Feb

-03

Feb

-04

Feb

-05

Feb

-06

Feb

-07

Feb

-08

Feb

-09

Feb

-10

Feb

-11

Feb

-12

Feb

-13

Feb

-14

Feb

-15

Shanghai Composite Index

Shanghai Composite P/E (RHS)

1615

18

1311

14

0

5

10

15

20

25

USA - S&P500 Europe - Stoxx 600 Japan China Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Thailand

Forward PER

Current PER 12M Forward PER

11 11 1113

914

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

USA - S&P500 Europe - Stoxx 600 Japan China Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Thailand

Forward EPS Growth

EPS Growth 2015F EPS Growth 2016F

Market Valuations

13

Source: BloombergThailand data from ASPS ResearchDate as of 13 Aug 15

Source: Bloomberg Data as of 24 Aug 15

Sectoral P/E Valuations

14

Source: BloombergData as of 24 August 15

Price / Earning S&P 500Stoxx

Europe 600Nikkei

Shanghai

CompositeSET

Financials 16 12 15 8 11

Technology 18 17 16 37 19

Consumer Discretionary 22 17 13 22 21

Telecom 12 20 16 28 19

Consumer Staples 19 19 23 25 22

Healthcare 17 18 36 26 34

Energy 30 13 16 16 8

Utilities 16 13 14 17 14

Industrials 15 16 14 26 22

Materials 15 16 13 34 12

15

Investment Ideas

Example of Asset Allocation

16

Sector Focus USA Financials

Technology

Europe Financials

Consumer Discretionary

Japan Financials & Insurance

Automobiles

China Financials & Insurance

Technology

Europe

USA

Japan

China

Selected Industries / Major Industries

17

Banking Insurance Technology

Automobile Retail Consumer Discretionary

Financials and Banking

18

Attractive Valuations

• Low P/E, P/BV

Strong Balance Sheet

Recovery Indicators

Higher Interest Rates, Higher NIMs upon Recovery

Banking Valuations

19

MARKET CAP

($, Billion)

WELLS FARGO US 263 11 1.4 3

JPMORGAN US 223 9.3 0.9 3.1

ING NETHERLANDS 44 11 1.0 6.6

SOCIETE GENERALE FRANCE 30 8.3 0.6 5.5

CREDIT SUISSE SWISS 40 9.3 0.9 3.9

UNICREDIT ITALY 30 9.6 0.6 3.5

MITSUBISHI UFJ JAPAN 89 10 0.7 2.5

SUMITOMO JAPAN 54 8.2 0.7 3.2

ICBC CHINA 226 4.8 0.7 6.8

KASIKORN BANK THAI 11 8.1 1.2 2.8

SIAM COMM BANK THAI 13 8.3 1.3 4.7

COMPANY MARKET P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%)


20

Scaled to reflect real performance of a stockMARKET ($, Billion)

WELLS FARGO US 263 11 1.4 3

COMPANY MARKET P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%)Source: Bloomberg

Data as of 24 August 15

21


ICBC CHINA 226 5 0.7 6.8



Insurance

22


High Dividend Yield

Higher Market Returns, Higher Profit

Resilience of Investment, Low Volatility

Value of New Policy Growth

Insurance Valuations

23

MARKET CAP

($, Billion)

AIG US 74 10 0.6 1.8

SWISS RE SWISS 29 9.6 0.8 6.0

ZURICH SWISS 38 10 1.2 6.4

ALLIANZ GERMAN 56 9.2 0.9 5.5

AXA FRANCE 47 8.9 0.8 5.4

AVIVA UK 29 8.9 1.2 5.5

TOKIO MARINE JAPAN 28 13 0.9 2.3

AIA HK 67 16 1.9 1.5

PING AN CHINA 81 9.5 1.4 1.8

CHINA LIFE CHINA 99 12 1.6 2.9

BANGKOK LIFE THAI 2 14 2.4 2.1

P/BV DIV. YIELD (%)COMPANY MARKET P/E


24


AIG US 74 10 0.6 1.8



25


TOKIO MARINE JAPAN 28 13 0.9 2.3



Technology

26

Major Investment Theme

High Growth Potential (Online vs. Offline)

Product Innovation

Mega Trend

Social Media, e-Commerce, Wearable Devices

Technology Valuations

27

MARKET CAP

($, Billion)

APPLE US 588 11 3.7 2.1

FACEBOOK US 231 30 4.7 0

ALIBABA US 165 25 5.1 0

GOOGLE US 413 18 2.9 0

AMAZON US 217 53 13 0

NETFLIX US 41 206 19 0

SOFTBANK JAPAN 69 16 2.5 0.6

TENCENT HK 160 25 7.0 0.4

SAMSUNG S.KOREA 139 7 0.9 1.9

COMPANY MARKET P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%)


28


APPLE US 588 11 3.7 2.1



29


FACEBOOK US 231 30 4.7 0



30


GOOGLE US 413 18 2.9 0



Automobile

31


Economic Recovery Plan

Model, Technology Innovations

Auto Sales Reaching Record High

Automobile Valuations

32

MARKET CAP

($, Billion)

GENERAL MOTORS US 44 5.5 1.0 5.2

FORD US 52 6.8 1.5 4.8

TESLA US 29 96 25 0

DAIMLER GERMAN 66 7.6 1.3 5.1

BMW GERMAN 46 7.9 1.1 4.4

VOLKSWAGEN GERMAN 70 6.3 0.8 4.0

PORSCHE GERMAN 17 4.8 0.5 4.1

TOYOTA JAPAN 195 9.0 1.2 3.3

HONDA JAPAN 55 11.2 0.9 2.6

NISSAN JAPAN 40 8.6 0.9 3.9

P/ECOMPANY MARKET P/BV DIV. YIELD (%)


33


DAIMLER GERMAN 66 8 1.3 5.1



34


VOLKSWAGEN GERMAN 70 6 0.8 4



35


TOYOTA JAPAN 195 9 1.2 3.3



Retail

36


Steady Growth Continues in the US

Bottoming Out in the UK and Europe

Worldwide Expansion

Retail Valuations

37

MARKET CAP

($, Billion)

WALMART US 206 14 2.4 3.1

COSTCO US 58 24 4.5 1.2

MACY US 19 12 3.8 2.4

HOME DEPOT US 146 21 19 2.0

CARREFOUR FRANCE 18 14 1.7 3.2

SEVEN & I JAPAN 37 23 1.9 1.5

CPALL THAI 12 26 9.4 2.3

CENTRAL THAI 5 19 3.5 2.0

COMPANY MARKET P/E DIV. YIELD (%)P/BV


38


WALMART US 206 14 2.4 3.1



39


SEVEN & I JAPAN 37 23 1.9 1.5



Consumer Discretionary

40

Economic Recovery

High Profit Margin Business

Beneficiary of EUR Depreciation

Consumer Discretionary Valuations

41

MARKET CAP

($, Billion)

STARBUCKS US 75 27 10 1.5

DISNEY US 161 17 3.2 1.3

NIKE US 89 25 6.0 1.1

LVMH FRANCE 65 16 2.5 2.9

HERMES FRANCE 30 28 7.1 1.3

INDITEX SPAIN 80 29 7.4 2.2

ADIDAS GERMAN 12 16 2.1 2.7

FAST RETAILING JAPAN 43 36 6.1 0.8

P/BV DIV. YIELD (%)COMPANY MARKET P/E


42


LVMH FRANCE 65 16 2.5 2.9



43


STARBUCKS US 75 27 10.2 1.5



44


INDITEX SPAIN 80 29 7.4 2.2



Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)

45

Diversification

Lower Fees

Trades Like a Stock

ETF Valuations

46


MARKET CAP

($, Billion)

S&P 500 US SPY US 158

NASDAQ US QQQ US 35

EUROPE EUROPE HEDJ US 19

NIKKEI JAPAN 1321 JP 23

CHINA A50 CHINA 2823 HK 4

CHINA H-SHARE HK 2828 HK 6

TICKERETF MARKET

Mutual Funds - EuropeAXA World Funds – Flamlington

Europe Real Estate Securities

^ Master Fund Performance from AXA as of July 2015

35%

33%

17%

6%

4%

5%

Sector Allocation

Office Retail Residential Industrial Storage Others90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

Au

gust

-13

Oct

ob

er-

13

Dec

em

ber

-13

Feb

ruar

y-1

4

Ap

ril-

14

Jun

e-1

4

Au

gust

-14

Oct

ob

er-

14

Dec

em

ber

-14

Feb

ruar

y-1

5

Ap

ril-

15

Jun

e-1

5

Fund Performance

AXA World Funds - Framlington Europe Real Estate Securities

FTSE EPRA NAREIT Deleloped Europe Capped

Source: Bloomberg / AXA

AXA World Funds – Flamlington Europe Real Estate Securitiesis a master fund of ASP-EUPROP fund by Asset Plus

Performance (%) YTD 1Y3Y

Annualized5Y

Annualized

Fund^ 20 30 83 125

Benchmark 19 29 74 111

Mutual Funds – US High Yield Bonds

48

AXA World Funds – US High Yield Bonds USD Fund

Performance (%) YTD 1Y3Y

Annualized5Y

Annualized

Fund^ 3.07 -0.24 22.7 51.7

Benchmark 2.49 -0.55 21.9 49.7

^ Master Fund Performance from AXA as of August 2015

Source: AXA

14%

10%

9%

8%

8%8%7%

36%

Sector Allocation

Energy Basic Industry Healthcare Services

Media Telecom Capital Goods Others

Property Assets

49Source: www.telegraph.co.uk

100

150

200

250

300

350

Mar

-00

Mar

-02

Mar

-04

Mar

-06

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

US and UK House Price Index

UK Nationalwide House Price Index

S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Home Price Index

Source: BloombergData as of March 2015

new dimension for offshore investment · 2020-03-11 · new dimension for offshore investment 1...

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