new challenges of the 21st century -...

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7th KarMUN, 2011, Budapest HUNGARY7th KarMUN, 2011, Budapest HUNGARY‘‘The UN Disarmament CommitteeThe UN Disarmament Committee’’

New Challenges of the 21st CenturyNew Challenges of the 21st Century

Modern piracy, the future of Afghanistan, Modern piracy, the future of Afghanistan, the Korean conflict, and the African revolution wave the Korean conflict, and the African revolution wave

Guest speaker: Guest speaker: Prof (H.C.) dr. Prof (H.C.) dr. ISASZEGI, JanosISASZEGI, JanosMajor General, Republic of HungaryMajor General, Republic of Hungary

10 March 201110 March 2011

To Whom It May Concern! To Whom It May Concern! 1.1.

The views expressed in this presentation The views expressed in this presentation aandndacademic research paperacademic research paper are those of the author are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Hungarian Government; Hungarian Government;

IAW IAW ChHR on Academic freedom of PresentersChHR on Academic freedom of Presenters!!

To Whom It May Concern! To Whom It May Concern! 2.2.

It is It is my my goal goal to adviceto advice the Ithe Internationalnternational OOrganizationrganizations, s, andand the the Diplomatic PlannersDiplomatic Planners withwith mymy viewview onon New New ChallengesChallenges ofof 21st 21st CenturyCentury,, asas Modern Modern PiracyPiracy andand with the comparison of some longwith the comparison of some long--lasting missions, as Multinational Oplasting missions, as Multinational Operationserations in Balkans, Iraq in Balkans, Iraq and and AfghanistanAfghanistan, to learn the history, to be intellectually open for new , to learn the history, to be intellectually open for new challenges, adapt Lessons Learned and be ready for the coming challenges, adapt Lessons Learned and be ready for the coming challengeschallenges, , conflictsconflicts, , warswars! !

It is my It is my intent intent to give you to give you a special multiplea special multiple--overview overview -- on on New New ChallengesChallenges ofof thethe 21st 21st CenturyCentury, i.e. , i.e. asas Modern Modern PiracyPiracy,,-- on on thethe futurefuture ofof AfghanistanAfghanistan,,-- onon thethe InterInter--KoreanKorean conflictconflict..

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AGENDAAGENDA

I.I. The Role of International OrganizationsThe Role of International Organizations in Crisis Response in Crisis Response OpOperationerations (s (CROsCROs), and Post), and Post--Conflict Stabilization (PCS) Conflict Stabilization (PCS) Missions;Missions;

II.II. Case StudCase Study:y: thethe presentpresent andand thethe futurefuture ofof AfghanistanAfghanistan

III.III. The The Modern Modern PiracyPiracy andand otherother Challenges@2Challenges@21st 1st CenturyCentury

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I.The Role of International Organizations The Role of International Organizations

in Crisis Response Opin Crisis Response Operationerations, s, and Postand Post--Conflict Stabilization MissionsConflict Stabilization Missions

It is alwaysIt is always Useful to know Useful to know about:about: CRP!CRP!

•• The The Crisis Response Procedure Crisis Response Procedure (See next pages!) (See next pages!)

•• ‘‘The Force to MissionThe Force to Mission’’ –– model model •• The Responsibility to Protect (R2P) PolicyThe Responsibility to Protect (R2P) Policy•• UN, EU, OSCE, UN, EU, OSCE, NATONATO, AU, , AU, IOsIOs, , GOsGOs, NGOs , NGOs

activities in Crisis Response Ops, and Postactivities in Crisis Response Ops, and Post--Conflict Conflict StabilizationStabilization

For Common UnderstandingCrisis SituationsCrisis Situations::

•• DisasterDisaster•• Internal crisisInternal crisis•• InvasionInvasion•• Civil war situationCivil war situation•• Modern Modern PiracyPiracy•• Military aggressionMilitary aggression•• Genocide, Genocide, …………..

Q: What to do with a crisis?Q: What to do with a crisis?A: Crisis Management! A: Crisis Management!

•• „„Crisis Situation !Crisis Situation !”” Info to the Info to the …… Public, Public, IOsIOs;;•• UN SC meetings, decision, UN SCR UN SC meetings, decision, UN SCR or / andor / and

•• NATONATO/EU/OSCE/AU/EU/OSCE/AU meetings, decisionmeetings, decision-- Situation analyzingSituation analyzing-- Determine the size of necessary forceDetermine the size of necessary force-- Determine the source of forceDetermine the source of force-- Give a mandate for the authorized force Give a mandate for the authorized force

Crisis ManagementCrisis ManagementDecision Making ProcessDecision Making Process (1)(1)

Decision Making ProcessDecision Making Process (2)(2)

•• CONOPSCONOPS (Concept of Operations) (Concept of Operations) Gives the basic information for the TCN Gives the basic information for the TCN what kind of force necessary to solve thewhat kind of force necessary to solve thecrisis situation !crisis situation !ConsistsConsists::-- accepted solution of the crisisaccepted solution of the crisis-- necessary size of force, structure of opsnecessary size of force, structure of ops-- authorization, and timeframe of opsauthorization, and timeframe of ops

Decision Making ProcessDecision Making Process ((33))

FGCFGC, as Force Generation Conference, as Force Generation Conference

Based on the Concept of Operations, Based on the Concept of Operations, Troop Contributing Nations offer forces,Troop Contributing Nations offer forces,supply, and other sources for the supply, and other sources for the „„Task ForceTask Force””•• Invitation for Invitation for „„member countriesmember countries””•• Initial, Main, and Final FGCInitial, Main, and Final FGC•• Structuring offered troops, equipment, Structuring offered troops, equipment, ……

MCC, MCC, as Manning as Manning CoordCoord. Conference (for HQs);. Conference (for HQs);

Decision Making ProcessDecision Making Process ((44))

OPLAN (Operation Plan), basic OPLAN (Operation Plan), basic docudocu for for TCNsTCNs ! ! Defines the rights and responsibilities for theDefines the rights and responsibilities for theParticipants.Participants.ConsistsConsists::•• ParticipantsParticipants•• Detailed tasks for troopsDetailed tasks for troops•• Work out basic documents for Work out basic documents for TCNsTCNs, such as , such as

MoUMoU, TA (defines the way of supply, payment, , TA (defines the way of supply, payment, and other questions for each TCN)and other questions for each TCN)

‘‘Force to MissionForce to Mission’’ IsaIsa--ModelModel

ADMIN/POLADMIN/POLAUTHORITIESAUTHORITIES

‘MISSION’

FORCE GENERATION

∆ CAPABILITIES GAP FILLING

ACTIONS

TASKS REQUESTEDCAPABILITIES

TCNs INITIAL CAPABILITES

∆ CAPABILITIES IDENTIFICATION

TCNs IMPROVED CAPABILITES

‘READINESS’REPORTS TO BE

DEPLOYED

IN THEATRE TRAINING (I/FOC) TOA

‘‘MISSIONMISSION’’/ACTIONS/ACTIONS

DEPLOYMENT MOVEMENT

•• Genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity, Genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity, mass atrocities, and mass atrocities, and the reactionthe reaction ((LibyaLibya););

•• Intervention vs. Sovereignty;Intervention vs. Sovereignty;•• NonNon--intervention worse than intervention?intervention worse than intervention?

•• The Concept of The Concept of ‘‘R2PR2P’’: : to reconcile the tensions between to reconcile the tensions between the international communitythe international community’’s sos so--called called „„right of humanitarian right of humanitarian interventionintervention”” and state sovereignty, which, it was often argued, and state sovereignty, which, it was often argued, precluded any such interference;precluded any such interference;

•• R2P insists R2P insists every state has a responsibility to every state has a responsibility to protect its peopleprotect its people. . When a state is unable or unwilling to When a state is unable or unwilling to protect its population from serious harm, or is complicit in protect its population from serious harm, or is complicit in inflicting that harm, this responsibility passes to the IC;inflicting that harm, this responsibility passes to the IC;

Concept Concept ‘‘Responsibility to protectResponsibility to protect’’ ––Actions taken by states and International Community (IC)Actions taken by states and International Community (IC) 1.

•• R2P comprises three responsibilities: R2P comprises three responsibilities: prevention, reaction and rebuilding. prevention, reaction and rebuilding.

•• Limiting factors: Limiting factors: right intentions, proportional means and right intentions, proportional means and reasonable prospects for success, appropriate authority, sound reasonable prospects for success, appropriate authority, sound operational principles!operational principles!

•• Solving the Crisis, Solving the Crisis, andand PostPost--Conflict StabilizationConflict Stabilization: : Peacemaking efforts, Peace negotiations, Targeted sanctions, Peacemaking efforts, Peace negotiations, Targeted sanctions, Rebuilding efforts, Diplomatic pressure, and Rebuilding efforts, Diplomatic pressure, and Military BackMilitary Back--upup!!!!

•• Military intervention Military intervention ((as the best bad choiceas the best bad choice!),!), or the or the credible threat of it is a last resort and justifiable only credible threat of it is a last resort and justifiable only when largewhen large--scale killing or ethnic cleansing is involved! scale killing or ethnic cleansing is involved!

Concept Concept ‘‘Responsibility to protectResponsibility to protect’’ ––Actions taken by states and International Community (IC) Actions taken by states and International Community (IC) 2.

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PO, PSO, PKO, PBO, PEO, CRO, PO, PSO, PKO, PBO, PEO, CRO, ……Peace Support Operations (PSOs)Peace Support Operations (PSOs)

The classification of the POs based on their mandate:The classification of the POs based on their mandate:

•• Operations lead by the UNOperations lead by the UN

•• Operations lead by NATO Operations lead by NATO (based on UN mandate)(based on UN mandate)

•• Operations lead by OSCE Operations lead by OSCE (based on UN mandate)(based on UN mandate)

•• Operations lead by EU Operations lead by EU (based on UN mandate)(based on UN mandate)

•• Operations lead by AU Operations lead by AU (based on UN mandate)(based on UN mandate)

•• Operations based on the UN Charter, under a special Operations based on the UN Charter, under a special agreementagreement

Peace Support Operations (PSOs)Peace Support Operations (PSOs)

The basic document of the Peace Support Operations is the UN The basic document of the Peace Support Operations is the UN Charter. Charter.

Chapter VI. contains the necessary actions and protocols which Chapter VI. contains the necessary actions and protocols which describe the activities concerning the peaceful processes of thedescribe the activities concerning the peaceful processes of thecrises of the world. crises of the world.

Chapter VII. describes the use of force by the United Nations, Chapter VII. describes the use of force by the United Nations, authorizes and limits the enforcing activities. This Chapter authorizes and limits the enforcing activities. This Chapter contains those protocols, activities that the Security Council mcontains those protocols, activities that the Security Council may ay apply with those threatening, breaking peace, or performing apply with those threatening, breaking peace, or performing attacking operations. attacking operations.

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Peace Support Operations Peace Support Operations

History, History, with Hungarianswith Hungarians

The first peace enforcement operation was connected to the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy’s activities at Crete in 1897., when forces of the AHM separated Greek and Turkish forces under the leadership of Gyula Pintér, a Hungarian consul.

The second successful operation had taken place in China (in Tienchin), when the soldiers of the Monarchy had established an Austro–Hungarian Zone in 1901., at the boxer riot.

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Peace Support Operations Peace Support Operations

HistoryHistory -- continuedcontinued

The next task had been carried out at „Europe’s gun powder barrel”, at the Balkan Peninsula. The officers of the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy had been carrying out humanitarian and peace enforcement tasks from 1902 till 1907 in Kosovo.

The fourth mission had taken place in a similar environment, in Skutari, where Alban people lived at that time. Here the Austro-Hungarian Contingent had fulfilled peace enforcement tasks from 1902 till 1914.

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EUFOR Bosnia-Herzegovina,

(IPU, HQ)

NATO KFOR

UNOMIG(Georgia-Abkhazia)

OSCE(Georgia)

OSCE Bosnia-Herzegovina

(Sarajevo)

MINURSO(Western-Sahara)

US CENTCOM CCC(Tampa, Florida)

NATO ISAF (Afghanistan)

MFO(Sinai-Peninsula)

PEACE SUPPORT OPERATIONS PEACE SUPPORT OPERATIONS Participation of the Hungarian Defence Forces

in the Peace Support Operations

UN MISSIONUN MISSION

OSCE MISSIONOSCE MISSION

NATO MISSIONNATO MISSION

EU MISSIONEU MISSION

MISSIONS BASED ON MISSIONS BASED ON INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTSINTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS

NATO NTM-I(Iraq)

NATO HQ Ti(Albania, Tirana)

UNMIK(Kosovo)

OSCE (Tajikistan)

EU SEC (DR Congo)

UNFICYP(Cyprus)

NHQSa , PSOTC(Sarajevo)

EUFOR RDC OHQ (Potsdam)

European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) Civilian and Military Operations from 2003 Civilian and Military Operations from 2003 -- 20201111

EUPM (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

AMM Monitoring Mission(Aceh/Indonesia)

EUJUST-LEX(Iraq/Brussels)

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EUPOL COPPS(Palestinian Territories)

EUBAM Rafah (Palestinian Territories)

EUPOL Kinshasa (DR Congo)

EUPAT(fYROM) 2006

EUPOL PROXIMA(fYROM) 2004-2005

EUJUST THEMIS(Georgia) 2004-2005

KOSOVO ESDP police / Rule of Law mission

CONCORDIA(fYROM)

ARTEMIS(DR Congo) 2003

EUFOR Congo (DR Congo) 2006

EUFOR ALTHEA(Bosnia and Herzegovina)

NON-ESDP Missions:

EUSR border team Moldova/Ukraine

EUSR border team Georgia/South Caucasus

AFGHANISTANESDP police mission

civilian military completed in planning stage

AMIS II Assistance (Sudan/Darfur)

EUSEC DR Congo

UNFICYP

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UNOMIG - Georgia

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UNMIK Kosovo

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•MINURSO

Western-Sahara

OSCE Military Observer Missions

OSCEOSCE BOSNIABOSNIA--HERZEGOVINA HERZEGOVINA

OSCEOSCE TAJIKISTANTAJIKISTAN

OSCEOSCE GEORGIA GEORGIA

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OSCE – Tajikistan

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OSCE – Georgia

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EUSEC DR CongoEUFOR RD OHQ

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MFOMultinational Force and ObserversMultinational Force and Observers

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MFO

„B”

SINAI PENINSULASINAI PENINSULA

„C”

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Iraq: the Ethnic Breakdown

UNUN--led Activities in Iraq, 2003 led Activities in Iraq, 2003 -- …… 1.1.

•• HistoryHistory: : UNSCOMUNSCOM, the UN Special Commission. Established by , the UN Special Commission. Established by Security Council resolution 687 (1991); in action until 1999; Security Council resolution 687 (1991); in action until 1999;

•• UNMOVIC, the UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection UNMOVIC, the UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection CommissionCommission

•• UNIKOM, the UN IraqUNIKOM, the UN Iraq--Kuwait Observation Mission Kuwait Observation Mission

•• UNAMI, the UN Assistance Mission for IraqUNAMI, the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq

•• UN DGITF, the UN Development Group Iraq Trust FundUN DGITF, the UN Development Group Iraq Trust Fund

•• UN UN & World Bank& World Bank: the International Reconstruction Fund : the International Reconstruction Fund Facility for Iraq, IRFFIFacility for Iraq, IRFFI


UNMOVICUNMOVIC, , the UN Monitoring, Verification and the UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection CommissionInspection Commission

•• Created by Security Council resolution 1284 (1999) Created by Security Council resolution 1284 (1999)

•• INVO, the Iraq Nuclear Verification Office of the INVO, the Iraq Nuclear Verification Office of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); created by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); created by the IAEA in 1991, initially as the Iraq Action Team the IAEA in 1991, initially as the Iraq Action Team

•• Verification Challenges, 2003 Verification Challenges, 2003 ……•• UNSCR, UNSCR, 29 June 200729 June 2007: mandate finished! : mandate finished!


UNIKOMUNIKOM, , the UN Iraqthe UN Iraq--Kuwait Observation MissionKuwait Observation Mission

•• Created by Security Council resolution (1991); Created by Security Council resolution (1991); •• Established in April 1991, following the forced Established in April 1991, following the forced

withdrawal of Iraqi forces from Kuwait;withdrawal of Iraqi forces from Kuwait;•• Its task was to monitor the demilitarized zone along the Its task was to monitor the demilitarized zone along the

IraqIraq--Kuwait border, deter border violations and report on Kuwait border, deter border violations and report on any hostile action;any hostile action;

•• The mandate of the Mission was completed on 6 October The mandate of the Mission was completed on 6 October 2003;2003;


UNAMIUNAMI, , the UN Assistance Mission for Iraqthe UN Assistance Mission for Iraq

•• UNAMI was established following Security Council resolution 1500UNAMI was established following Security Council resolution 1500, , on 14 August 2003;on 14 August 2003;Key tasks outlined in resolution 1546: Key tasks outlined in resolution 1546: ‘‘Assist, Advise, PromoteAssist, Advise, Promote’’;;

•• Terrorist attack on UN Office on Baghdad, 19 Aug 2003, the Dark Terrorist attack on UN Office on Baghdad, 19 Aug 2003, the Dark day day for UN; evacuation of the Int. Staff from Baghdad to Amman by for UN; evacuation of the Int. Staff from Baghdad to Amman by November 2003;November 2003;

•• The UN stands ready to actively assist the Iraqi people in the The UN stands ready to actively assist the Iraqi people in the endeavor of stopping the violence and promoting national accord;endeavor of stopping the violence and promoting national accord;silent present in Iraq, 2003silent present in Iraq, 2003--2020110;0;


UN DGITFUN DGITF, and the , and the IRFFIIRFFI

•• The UN Development Group Iraq Trust Fund is one of The UN Development Group Iraq Trust Fund is one of two funds that make up the IRFFI;two funds that make up the IRFFI;

•• To ensure swift, flexible, and coordinated donor To ensure swift, flexible, and coordinated donor financing for priority investments in Iraq, the UN and the financing for priority investments in Iraq, the UN and the World Bank created the International Reconstruction World Bank created the International Reconstruction Fund Facility for Iraq, IRFFI;Fund Facility for Iraq, IRFFI;

•• The IRFFI is funding the reconstruction and development The IRFFI is funding the reconstruction and development activities of the 16 UN agencies operating in Iraq;activities of the 16 UN agencies operating in Iraq;


The Operations of the UN in Iraq, The Operations of the UN in Iraq, todaytoday

•• CrossCross--cutting issues:cutting issues:-- SecuritySecurity-- Human rightsHuman rights-- GenderGender-- EnvironmentEnvironment-- Employment Generation Employment Generation

•• UNCT, the UN Country Team in Iraq, UNCT, the UN Country Team in Iraq, a family of UN Organizations involved in Iraq, cons of 16 Ua family of UN Organizations involved in Iraq, cons of 16 UN N Agencies and ProgramsAgencies and Programsees, coordinated by UNAMI.s, coordinated by UNAMI.

Invasion of Iraq by USA

USUS--led Operations Iraqi Freedomled Operations Iraqi Freedom

2003 2003 -- ……

TRANSITION INTO SOVEREIGN & DEMOCRATIC IRAQ

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United Nations S/RES/1546 (2004)

Security Council Distr.: General

8 June 2004

Resolution 1546 (2004)

Adopted by the Security Council at its 4987th meeting, on

8 June 2004…

4. Endorses the proposed timetable for Iraq’s political transition to democratic government including:

(a) formation of the sovereign Interim Government of Iraq that will assume governing responsibility and authority by 30 June 2004;

(b) convening of a national conference reflecting the diversity of Iraqi society; and

(c) holding of direct democratic elections by 31 December 2004 if possible, and in no case later than 31 January 2005, to a Transitional National Assembly, which will, inter alia, have responsibility for forming a Transitional Government of Iraq and drafting a permanent constitution for Iraq leading to a constitutionally elected government by 31 December 2005;

….

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II. II.

Case Study: Case Study:

The present and the future The present and the future of Afghanistanof Afghanistan

AFG in Proportion to Europe

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AfghanistanAfghanistanPopulation: Population: 33.6 million;33.6 million;Median age: Median age: 17.6 years;17.6 years;Life expectancy: Life expectancy: 44.6 years;44.6 years;Ethnic groups: Ethnic groups: 42% Pashtun, 27% Tajik, 9% Uzbek, 9% Hazara, 13% other;42% Pashtun, 27% Tajik, 9% Uzbek, 9% Hazara, 13% other;Religions: Religions: 80% Sunni Muslim, 19% Shiite Muslim, 1% other;80% Sunni Muslim, 19% Shiite Muslim, 1% other;Government: Government: An Islamic republic with a presidential system and a bicameralAn Islamic republic with a presidential system and a bicameral

federal legislative branch. Laws are mfederal legislative branch. Laws are mix of Islamic and civil measures;ix of Islamic and civil measures;Economy: Economy: Unemployment 40%; Population below poverty line 53%;Unemployment 40%; Population below poverty line 53%;WorldWorld’’s s largest producer of opium, key part of underground economy and hlargest producer of opium, key part of underground economy and helps fund elps fund

militants!militants!Security: Security: Increasingly troubled by the resurgent Taliban movement;Increasingly troubled by the resurgent Taliban movement;Resources: Resources: Coal, copper, petroleum, natural gas, precious and semiprecious Coal, copper, petroleum, natural gas, precious and semiprecious stones.stones.

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AfghanistanAfghanistan-- forbidding terrain;forbidding terrain;

-- Hindu Kush Mountains Hindu Kush Mountains right in the middle of the right in the middle of the country and spreading country and spreading throughout;throughout;

-- a road system that is a road system that is still in development and still in development and immature in many areas;immature in many areas;

-- really a lack of rail, really a lack of rail, almost completely, across almost completely, across the country;the country;

-- ……

NATO in AfghanistanNATO in Afghanistan

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International Security Assistance ForceInternational Security Assistance ForceInternational Security Assistance Force

The North Atlantic TreatyThe North Atlantic TreatyWashington DC, 4 April 1949Washington DC, 4 April 1949

Article 4Article 4

The Parties will The Parties will consultconsult together whenever, in the together whenever, in the opinionopinion of any of of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or securthem, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any ity of any of the Parties is threatened.of the Parties is threatened.

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Article 5Article 5

The Parties agree that an armed The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or moreattack against one or more of of them in Europe or North America them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack shall be considered an attack against them allagainst them all and consequently they agree that , if such an and consequently they agree that , if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective selfindividual or collective self--defence recognized by Article 51 of the defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with oattacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with other ther Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic areaAtlantic area. .

NATO: Level of CommitmentNATO: Level of Commitment

Bosnia

Kosovo

OAECJTF

Concept

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2011

OAE

Kosovo

Afghanistan

Baltic &Slovenian

Air policing

HumanitarianRelief

NRF FOC

HVEs

Iraq

AfricaBalkan NHQ

DefenceReformBosnia

Dec1995 1999

I S A FI S A F

International Security Assistance ForceInternational Security Assistance ForceAfghanistanAfghanistan

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ISAF MissionISAF Missionin a country with a lot of terrorists, and terrorist networks thin a country with a lot of terrorists, and terrorist networks that at

threaten the regional security and the global stabilitythreaten the regional security and the global stability

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•• MissionMission::–– Assist the Afghan government to maintain security; Assist the Afghan government to maintain security; –– Facilitate the development of Afghan government Facilitate the development of Afghan government

structures;structures;–– Extend Afghan government control; andExtend Afghan government control; and–– Assist reconstruction and humanitarian efforts.Assist reconstruction and humanitarian efforts.

•• Desired Military EndDesired Military End--state:state:–– That Afghan National Security Forces are able to That Afghan National Security Forces are able to

provide security and sustain stability in Afghanistan provide security and sustain stability in Afghanistan without NATO support.without NATO support.

Key Military TasksKey Military Tasks

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•• Assist Afghan government extend its authorityAssist Afghan government extend its authority•• Conduct stability and security operationsConduct stability and security operations•• Mentor the Afghan National ArmyMentor the Afghan National Army•• Support programs to disarm Illegally Armed Support programs to disarm Illegally Armed

GroupsGroups•• Coordinate and deCoordinate and de--conflict ISAF and Coalition conflict ISAF and Coalition

operationsoperations•• Operate and secure Kabul International Airport and Operate and secure Kabul International Airport and

transfer functions to Afghan control when practicaltransfer functions to Afghan control when practical

Key Supporting TasksKey Supporting Tasks

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In coordination with the Afghan government, and within means andIn coordination with the Afghan government, and within means andcapabilities, support:capabilities, support:–– A coherent overview of development and security sector reformA coherent overview of development and security sector reform–– Afghan National PoliceAfghan National Police–– An integrated border security strategyAn integrated border security strategy–– Afghan government counter narcotics effortsAfghan government counter narcotics efforts–– Assistance to humanitarian assistance operations conducted by Assistance to humanitarian assistance operations conducted by

Afghan government organizations, international organizations Afghan government organizations, international organizations and nonand non--governmental organizationsgovernmental organizations

–– The return of refugees and displaced personsThe return of refugees and displaced persons–– Agencies combating trafficking in human beingsAgencies combating trafficking in human beings–– Disaster relief operationsDisaster relief operations–– NonNon--combatant evacuation operationscombatant evacuation operations–– InIn--extremis support to Coalition forcesextremis support to Coalition forces–– Remove/neutralize threats from explosive remnants of war posing Remove/neutralize threats from explosive remnants of war posing

an immediate riskan immediate risk

Afghanistan DevelopmentAfghanistan Development

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INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY

SECURITY SECTOR REFORM

Counter Narcotics

UnitedKingdom

Lead

Judicial Reform

ItalyLead

DisarmamentOf Illegally

Armed Groups(DIAG)

JapanLead

Train theAfghanNational

Army

UnitedStatesLead

NATO???

TrainPoliceForces

EULead

Afghan Compact

UNAMA-NGOs ISAF OEF

Afghan National Security Afghan National Security ForcesForces (ANSF)(ANSF)

Afghan National Police (ANP)

Afghan National Army (ANA)

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Support to the ANASupport to the ANA•• Operational Mentor and Liaison Teams (OMLTs)Operational Mentor and Liaison Teams (OMLTs)

•• Equipment donationsEquipment donations

•• InIn-- & out& out--ofof--country trainingcountry training

Language Language barrier hampers ANA training! While the ANA has a barrier hampers ANA training! While the ANA has a continuing need for modern weapons and supplies, continuing need for modern weapons and supplies, the more the more urgent priority for the service isurgent priority for the service is language traininglanguage training, , particularly in particularly in EnglishEnglish!!

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Support to the ASF Support to the ASF 20092009--20120111

•• NATO Training Mission NATO Training Mission –– Afghanistan Afghanistan (sim. to NTM(sim. to NTM--I!) I!)

For Afghans to establish (reestablish):For Afghans to establish (reestablish):•• National Defense UniversityNational Defense University•• National Defense College for senior and junior level National Defense College for senior and junior level •• National NCO AcademyNational NCO Academy

•• ASF (ANA with or without ANP) Training and Ops ASF (ANA with or without ANP) Training and Ops CommandCommand

•• Training Centers at every ISAF RCTraining Centers at every ISAF RC

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Counter NarcoticsCounter Narcotics

• 70 – 80% of the world’s illicit opium is from Afghanistan.

• 85% of heroin in Europe comes from opium produced in Afghanistan.

• The narcotics trade accounts for nearly 60% of the GDP of Afghanistan.

• 1Kg of Heroin costs $7K in AF - $280K in USA.

HealthcareHealthcare•• One District Hospital, three Basic Health One District Hospital, three Basic Health

Centers and one Comprehensive Health Centers and one Comprehensive Health Center were established, providing Center were established, providing health services to an estimated health services to an estimated 280,000280,000people in 20people in 201100

•• In 2001 8% of Afghans had access to basic In 2001 8% of Afghans had access to basic healthcare; today that figure is 85%healthcare; today that figure is 85%

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The TThe Talibanaliban

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•• The Taliban are a desperate, intelligent, and adaptive enemy!The Taliban are a desperate, intelligent, and adaptive enemy!

•• They continue to focus their efforts on high payoff, low risk They continue to focus their efforts on high payoff, low risk asymmetric attacks against ISAF, ANSF, and GOA officials;asymmetric attacks against ISAF, ANSF, and GOA officials;

•• Their overarching operational goal: undermining support for Their overarching operational goal: undermining support for ISAF and undermining the legitimacy of the GOA;ISAF and undermining the legitimacy of the GOA;

•• They operate in extremely small groups against relatively They operate in extremely small groups against relatively weak targets of opportunity with the weapon of choice: the weak targets of opportunity with the weapon of choice: the lethal IEDs;lethal IEDs;

•• They are They are tenacious and implacable foestenacious and implacable foes! !

ISAFISAF--mission, as a new NATO model? mission, as a new NATO model?

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•• „„Afghanistan is very important for the transformation of NATO. ItAfghanistan is very important for the transformation of NATO. It is the is the model for working together. It is forcing it to happen. model for working together. It is forcing it to happen. …… Fighting the Fighting the Taliban is easy, the hard job is nationTaliban is easy, the hard job is nation--building building …”…” –– MG Ton van Loon, MG Ton van Loon, RNLA, Cmdr RCRNLA, Cmdr RC--S 2007; S 2007;

My questionMy question: Did we forget the NATO: Did we forget the NATO--led IFOR/SFOR/KFOR Missions, led IFOR/SFOR/KFOR Missions, with all their LL? with all their LL? If so, we are always loosers with only learning from our newest If so, we are always loosers with only learning from our newest mistakes mistakes and failures!!and failures!!

•• The job of stabilizing Afghanistan is difficult, given the unstaThe job of stabilizing Afghanistan is difficult, given the unstable countries ble countries on its borders, such as Iran, which allowed arms to be shipped ion its borders, such as Iran, which allowed arms to be shipped in;n;

•• Q: Could a secure Afghanistan provide stability in the region? Q: Could a secure Afghanistan provide stability in the region? A: Yes! A: Yes! This may not be the truth, but it is a perspective!!This may not be the truth, but it is a perspective!!

The The NewNew Role of Military: Role of Military: to support Afghans with Good Governance to support Afghans with Good Governance

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•• SATSAT, as Strategic Advisory Team: specialists, as Strategic Advisory Team: specialists--mentors, but no mentors, but no advise on military matters;advise on military matters;Senior Canadian military officers are combating the TalibaSenior Canadian military officers are combating the Taliban n

since Aug 2005 in a unique way: They have been embedded since Aug 2005 in a unique way: They have been embedded into the Afghan government to advise the Karzai into the Afghan government to advise the Karzai administration on longadministration on long--term development of the nation;term development of the nation;

•• AimAim: : to win civilian hearts and mindsto win civilian hearts and minds and undercut and undercut support for the insurgencysupport for the insurgency; to bring good governance to the ; to bring good governance to the country to improve public support and confidence for the country to improve public support and confidence for the beleaguered Karzai regime;beleaguered Karzai regime;

•• Concern about corruption, nepotism, incompetence, Concern about corruption, nepotism, incompetence, inappropriate government actions, as weak governance in inappropriate government actions, as weak governance in President Hamid KarzaiPresident Hamid Karzai’’s government; s government;

The The NewNew Role of Military: Role of Military: to support Afghans with Good Governance to support Afghans with Good Governance 2.2.

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•• A Canadian team of specialists mentors Afghan leaders in variousA Canadian team of specialists mentors Afghan leaders in variousgovernment departments and help develop longgovernment departments and help develop long--range strategic policy;range strategic policy;

•• To To teach, mentor senior officials in Afghanistan on how to run depateach, mentor senior officials in Afghanistan on how to run departments rtments and portfolios;and portfolios;

•• SAT concentrates on governance, rule of law and economic and socSAT concentrates on governance, rule of law and economic and social ial development;development;

•• SAT deals with 12 government ministries, including rural rehabilSAT deals with 12 government ministries, including rural rehabilitation itation and development, education, justice and transportation; and development, education, justice and transportation;

•• CommentComment: similar actions were taken during the : similar actions were taken during the IFORIFOR--SFORSFOR--AFORAFOR--KFOR Ops in the Balkans!KFOR Ops in the Balkans!

HUN PRT CAMPHUN PRT CAMP

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The Situation in Afghanistan, The Situation in Afghanistan, March March 20201111 1.1.

•• The current situation in Afghanistan is bad and The current situation in Afghanistan is bad and increasingly difficult, increasingly difficult, and the NATO and TCNs administrations and the NATO and TCNs administrations have not focused on preparing people at home for this; have not focused on preparing people at home for this;

•• For the US in Afghanistan: the longest war!For the US in Afghanistan: the longest war!

•• More NATOMore NATO--troops with specialization (tens of thousands troops with specialization (tens of thousands of more forces) of more forces) and fightand fight--supporting assets are inevitable; supporting assets are inevitable;

•• Many countries due to their domestic weak support of the Many countries due to their domestic weak support of the mission in Afghanistan mission in Afghanistan run the risk of undermining the run the risk of undermining the mission theremission there, , just sending troops in a piecemeal fashion! just sending troops in a piecemeal fashion!

•• Military deaths have hit record levels due to a Military deaths have hit record levels due to a sharp jump in roadside bombings! sharp jump in roadside bombings!

The Situation in Afghanistan, The Situation in Afghanistan, MarchMarch 202011 11 2.2.

•• Fragile Central Governmental Institutions with great Fragile Central Governmental Institutions with great corruption;corruption;

•• Taliban militants appear at an undisclosed location in Taliban militants appear at an undisclosed location in Afghanistan;Afghanistan;

•• The The ISAF&OEF troops in AfghanistanISAF&OEF troops in Afghanistan continue to continue to resemble resemble an occupationan occupation that not be received well by an that not be received well by an Afghan populationAfghan population that that has endured more than 30 years has endured more than 30 years of war!of war!

Q: Q: Can the good conduct of NATO troops on the ground mitigate the iCan the good conduct of NATO troops on the ground mitigate the impact mpact of their presence?of their presence?

The Situation in Afghanistan,The Situation in Afghanistan, MarchMarch 20201111 3.3.

•• Is the NATOIs the NATO’’ Afghanistan Exit Strategy: Afghanistan Exit Strategy: Buying off the Buying off the Taliban? Taliban? -- to simply pay those currently earning their keep as gunmen for to simply pay those currently earning their keep as gunmen for the Taliban the Taliban to stay out of the fight?to stay out of the fight?

-- Q: What is the exact number of bad guys in Afghanistan, many ofQ: What is the exact number of bad guys in Afghanistan, many of whom are whom are paid to fight? What about the new term paid to fight? What about the new term „„10 USD10 USD TalibanTaliban””? ? (the amount insurgents earn each day from Taliban coffers swelle(the amount insurgents earn each day from Taliban coffers swelled by drug d by drug proceeds and Islamist benefactors);proceeds and Islamist benefactors);

-- Q: how many fighters are on the Taliban payroll? Q: how many fighters are on the Taliban payroll?

A#1: A#1: „„Estimated there are between 10,000 and 15,000 Taliban fighting tEstimated there are between 10,000 and 15,000 Taliban fighting the AGO and he AGO and NATO alliesNATO allies”” (by Mohammad Hanif Atmar, Afghanistan(by Mohammad Hanif Atmar, Afghanistan’’s Interior Minister, Jan 2009);s Interior Minister, Jan 2009);

A#2, Some analystsA#2, Some analysts’’ and my view: The number of and my view: The number of Taliban members everywhere in Taliban members everywhere in Afghanistan counts around 100,000 fighters and incorrigible hardAfghanistan counts around 100,000 fighters and incorrigible hard core core supporters, who are ideologically committed and wonsupporters, who are ideologically committed and won’’t lay down their guns! t lay down their guns! (see History (see History ……!) !)

The Situation in Afghanistan,The Situation in Afghanistan, MarchMarch 202011 11 4.4.

The Importance of the The Importance of the longlong--lasting Partnershiplasting Partnership with with PakistanPakistan!!

•• Swat Valley fighting Swat Valley fighting since the spring 2009, with the Pakistani SF response;since the spring 2009, with the Pakistani SF response;

•• Fightings in western Pakistan, in the FATA and the NorthFightings in western Pakistan, in the FATA and the North--West West Frontier Province, Frontier Province, with Pakistani SF and support from local population; with Pakistani SF and support from local population;

•• Q: Is Pakistan as a Partner and an Ally, or just a partner for tQ: Is Pakistan as a Partner and an Ally, or just a partner for the war in he war in Afghanistan?Afghanistan?

•• 64% of Pakistanis still see the USA as the enemy64% of Pakistanis still see the USA as the enemy!!

The reason why Pakistanis have concerns about the USA is that UThe reason why Pakistanis have concerns about the USA is that US have S have walked away from them twice: after the Soviets left Afghanistan,walked away from them twice: after the Soviets left Afghanistan, and through and through the 1990s.the 1990s.

USA to provide multiUSA to provide multi--year economic assistanceyear economic assistance to Pakistan,to Pakistan, to rebuild to rebuild confidence!confidence!

The Situation in Afghanistan, The Situation in Afghanistan, MarchMarch 202011 11 5.5.

My assessment:My assessment: the overall security Situation:the overall security Situation: a Mixed picture!a Mixed picture!

•• In some parts of Afghanistan In some parts of Afghanistan the Taliban have clearly established a the Taliban have clearly established a presence!presence!

•• Still there are several different active elements engaged in theStill there are several different active elements engaged in the fight fight against the Government of Afghanistan, such as against the Government of Afghanistan, such as -- Al Qaeda, with OBL,Al Qaeda, with OBL,-- The Haqqani network,The Haqqani network,-- Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and his group,Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and his group,……

•• The real issue for the International Security Assistance Forces The real issue for the International Security Assistance Forces is in is in RCRC--SSWW Regional Command SouthRegional Command South--WestWest and and RCRC--SSE Regional E Regional Command Command SouthSouth--EastEast!!

•• But more and more evidence that AQA and Taliban are forcing But more and more evidence that AQA and Taliban are forcing battles to the north of the country, such Kunduz area (RCbattles to the north of the country, such Kunduz area (RC--N AoR)!!N AoR)!!

The Situation in Afghanistan, The Situation in Afghanistan, MarchMarch 202011 11 66..

•• More troops needed in Afghanistan More troops needed in Afghanistan (compare Mission(compare Mission--TerritoryTerritory--Forces Forces Requirements in Balkans and Afghanistan, objectives such Requirements in Balkans and Afghanistan, objectives such ‘‘secure the secure the countrycountry’’ with troops levels and operating environment!) with troops levels and operating environment!) In larger and more rural (than Iraq) Afghanistan, it is that mucIn larger and more rural (than Iraq) Afghanistan, it is that much h harder to control territory and influence the mood harder to control territory and influence the mood ……

•• More real commitment needed from More real commitment needed from NATONATO(&EU&UN&OSCE) allies (&EU&UN&OSCE) allies with more troops and money in Afghanistan, if Alliancewith more troops and money in Afghanistan, if Alliance’’s credible point of s credible point of view: view: „„Afghanistan is central to fight against terrorismAfghanistan is central to fight against terrorism””! !

•• For ISAF countries: before deployments teach&train soldiers on For ISAF countries: before deployments teach&train soldiers on cultural anthropology of the Operational Environment cultural anthropology of the Operational Environment ((‘‘Human Terrain Human Terrain SystemSystem’’ programs activation)! programs activation)!

•• As soon as possible activate the NTMAs soon as possible activate the NTM--A NATO Training Mission in A NATO Training Mission in Afghanistan!Afghanistan!



•• The recommended Operational Method for ISAF&ASF: The recommended Operational Method for ISAF&ASF: CLEAR CLEAR …….. HOLD .. HOLD …….. BUILD/ENHANCE/DEVELOP !.. BUILD/ENHANCE/DEVELOP !

ClearClear Areas of Enemy Control,Areas of Enemy Control,HoldHold and Protect Areas from Enemy Control,and Protect Areas from Enemy Control,BuildBuild Essential Services, such as electricity, water, trash;Essential Services, such as electricity, water, trash;

•• Challenge: How to reunite the country?Challenge: How to reunite the country?A: National Reconciliation, with Security, Governance, EconA: National Reconciliation, with Security, Governance, Economic, omic, Political and Social Developments!Political and Social Developments!



•• There is an There is an urgent need for better relationsurgent need for better relations between the security between the security forces and provincial reconstruction teams and nonforces and provincial reconstruction teams and non--governmental governmental organizations working on civil programs;organizations working on civil programs;

•• ISAF HQ is strugglingISAF HQ is struggling with the situation that TCNs with the situation that TCNs ‘‘fightingfighting’’ under under the the different RoE Rules of Engagement and NC National Caveatsdifferent RoE Rules of Engagement and NC National Caveats that that complicate military operations;complicate military operations;

•• NATO, and the IC as soon as possible should NATO, and the IC as soon as possible should give a strategic answer give a strategic answer to Afghan poppy cultivationto Afghan poppy cultivation, and , and a plan to buy up the crop for a plan to buy up the crop for medical purposesmedical purposes should be taken seriously. should be taken seriously.


•• Q1Q1: Is the rising deaths among US, British, French and other forei: Is the rising deaths among US, British, French and other foreign gn troops in Afghanistan the unavoidable result of the renewed effotroops in Afghanistan the unavoidable result of the renewed effort to rt to turn things round in what was the original post 9/11 war?turn things round in what was the original post 9/11 war?A1: What about the real and critical evaluation of A1: What about the real and critical evaluation of

-- the changed TTPs of the friendly and the opposing forces, and the changed TTPs of the friendly and the opposing forces, and -- the possible reallocation of the FFs, terrorist networks, andthe possible reallocation of the FFs, terrorist networks, and-- the powerthe power--fightings between the Northern Alliance/Taliban, andfightings between the Northern Alliance/Taliban, and-- growing influence of the foreign Intel services!?! growing influence of the foreign Intel services!?!

•• There has been lots of talk of new policies and tactics, and leaThere has been lots of talk of new policies and tactics, and learning rning from Iraqfrom Iraq--war, but war, but Q2Q2: Are the lessons from Iraq so positive for Afghanistan now?: Are the lessons from Iraq so positive for Afghanistan now?A2: Although many Americans may want to call the IraqA2: Although many Americans may want to call the Iraq--war a war a success, few Iraqis use that term!success, few Iraqis use that term!

The Situation in Afghanistan, The Situation in Afghanistan, MarchMarch 20201111 1100..

•• Q3Q3: Is it a realistic hope that the Taliban in Afghanistan will be: Is it a realistic hope that the Taliban in Afghanistan will bebeaten by another Iraqbeaten by another Iraq--style style ‘‘surgesurge’’ of US and foreign troops? of US and foreign troops? A3: With more boots on the ground for NATO forces A3: With more boots on the ground for NATO forces –– it is only the it is only the one side of the coin! We need reviewed and changed Strategy withone side of the coin! We need reviewed and changed Strategy withbetter C4ISTAR capability and capacity, with the policy of better C4ISTAR capability and capacity, with the policy of „„split and split and controlcontrol’’! ! (As in Iraq in 2007 with the key change, when Sunni Iraqis turn (As in Iraq in 2007 with the key change, when Sunni Iraqis turn against alagainst al--Qaeda!) Qaeda!)

•• Q4Q4: Is there any sign of change in mood in Afghanistan: Is there any sign of change in mood in Afghanistan’’s Talibans Taliban’’s s heartland areas in southern and eastern Afghanistan? heartland areas in southern and eastern Afghanistan? A4: So far there is no such sign of that kind of change in mood,A4: So far there is no such sign of that kind of change in mood,similar to changes in Iraq 2007!similar to changes in Iraq 2007!

The Situation in Afghanistan, The Situation in Afghanistan, March March 202011 11 1111..

•• Q5Q5: How soon the new A: How soon the new ANNSF will be able to control the territory of SF will be able to control the territory of Afghanistan and secure their country? Afghanistan and secure their country? A5: The comparison with the situation regarding the trainedA5: The comparison with the situation regarding the trained ISF in ISF in Iraq is the real answer: years much to do with the AIraq is the real answer: years much to do with the ANNSF to avoid SF to avoid such a situation than in Iraq, where the USsuch a situation than in Iraq, where the US--trained Iraqi Security trained Iraqi Security Forces now in charge in Baghdad are taking much of the blame forForces now in charge in Baghdad are taking much of the blame forallowing the bombers to get through! allowing the bombers to get through!

•• Q6Q6: : Will the Will the Oct 2010 Lisbonne NATO SummitOct 2010 Lisbonne NATO Summit’’s NATOs NATO--UNUN--Afghanistan Statement on the Transfer of Control Afghanistan Statement on the Transfer of Control from the ISAF to the Government of Afghanistan be from the ISAF to the Government of Afghanistan be accomplished accomplished not later than Dec 2014not later than Dec 2014? ?


The Korea war, the Vietnam war, and the Cold war The Korea war, the Vietnam war, and the Cold war Lessons Learned for USA and the NATO!Lessons Learned for USA and the NATO!

•• By 1952, the last year of his presidency, Harry Truman recognizeBy 1952, the last year of his presidency, Harry Truman recognized d that the victory he had hoped for was no longer possible in Korethat the victory he had hoped for was no longer possible in Korea. a. Us forces were not losing, but they were not winning, either. InUs forces were not losing, but they were not winning, either. Instead stead they were caught up in a vast, bloody and expensive holding they were caught up in a vast, bloody and expensive holding operation!operation!

•• Q: WhoQ: Who’’s interest to be involved in a long lasting war?s interest to be involved in a long lasting war?•• A: The war industry is the only real winner!A: The war industry is the only real winner!

The The 10 years ahead10 years ahead’’ Situation in AfghanistanSituation in Afghanistan1.1.

•• Whit the new NATOWhit the new NATO--US strategy and tactics US strategy and tactics ((Oct Oct 2020110)0) on on ‘‘How to deal with How to deal with the Local Population and/or Opposing Forces in AFPAthe Local Population and/or Opposing Forces in AFPA’’,, and a NTMand a NTM--A!A!

•• With a With a ‘‘newnew’’ ((as in Balkans, and Iraqas in Balkans, and Iraq) ISAF C2 structure,) ISAF C2 structure,•• With a robust With a robust 24/724/7 C4ISTAR cover of AoR, C4ISTAR cover of AoR, •• With better completed training of ISAF With better completed training of ISAF forces andforces and Key leadershipKey leadership, , •• With the greater contribution (With the greater contribution (quantity and qualityquantity and quality) from TCNs,) from TCNs,•• With the more With the more active contributionactive contribution of IOs, NGOs to the Afghan SSR,of IOs, NGOs to the Afghan SSR,•• With the effective With the effective pressure on the governmental corruptionpressure on the governmental corruption,,•• With the successful negotiation with the ConflictWith the successful negotiation with the Conflict’’s Neighbours,s Neighbours,•• ……

It is the hope that with the NATO and IOsIt is the hope that with the NATO and IOs’’ movement in the right movement in the right direction, that we will see a situation direction, that we will see a situation (as we have seen in Iraq today)(as we have seen in Iraq today), , where where more and more of the security responsibility will flow from more and more of the security responsibility will flow from ISAF to Afghan Security ForcesISAF to Afghan Security Forces (ANA and ANP)! (ANA and ANP)! …… and ISAF can be and ISAF can be partly withdrawn, beyond partly withdrawn, beyond 2014/2014/2020 ? 2020 ?

The 10The 10 years aheadyears ahead’’ Situation in AfghanistanSituation in Afghanistan2.2.

But the Question is:But the Question is: Is the Afghan conflict Is the Afghan conflict „„a war of necessitya war of necessity””? ?

•• What is the available, realistic Mission EndWhat is the available, realistic Mission End--State desired timeline for State desired timeline for the ISAF forces and for the IOs, NGOs to leave Afghanistan? the ISAF forces and for the IOs, NGOs to leave Afghanistan?

•• What we are hoping to achieve in Afghanistan??: What we are hoping to achieve in Afghanistan??: -- rebuilding institutions,rebuilding institutions,-- increasing the size of the forces,increasing the size of the forces,-- increasing the economy, economic development,increasing the economy, economic development,-- defeating the Taliban,defeating the Taliban,-- defeating al Qaeda,defeating al Qaeda,-- stabilize the region,stabilize the region,-- crackdown the drugcrackdown the drug--business,business,-- neutralize the country from foreign fighters, neutralize the country from foreign fighters, …… ????????????

The 10The 10 years aheadyears ahead’’ Situation in AfghanistanSituation in Afghanistan3.3.

Question:Question: Is the Afghan mission for USA a real, historical LessonsIs the Afghan mission for USA a real, historical LessonsLearned??? Learned???

•• Alexander the GreatAlexander the Great•• Khans of MongoliaKhans of Mongolia•• The British EmpireThe British Empire•• The Soviet Union, and theThe Soviet Union, and the

•• …… USA after 9/11 2001?USA after 9/11 2001?

NATO Training Mission - AfghanistanN T M - A

2010- …

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III. III.

TTHE MODERN PIRACY HE MODERN PIRACY AND TAND THE NEW SECURITY CHALLENGES HE NEW SECURITY CHALLENGES

OF THE 21ST CENTURYOF THE 21ST CENTURY

At the beginning of the 21st. Century one of the most serious challenges

is international terrorism.

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TERRORISM TERRORISM

Terrorism is when groups or individuals Terrorism is when groups or individuals try to reach their political, religious or try to reach their political, religious or ideological goals by the use or by the ideological goals by the use or by the

threatening of the use of terror.threatening of the use of terror.

(no agreed official definition has been made yet)(no agreed official definition has been made yet)

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DEFINITION OF TERRORISM DEVELOPMENT AND HISTORY

•„Regime de la terreur”, power of terror, 1793-1794, French revolution, positive!

•National hero vs. Terrorist ?•XII.c.: Assassination of leaders of Crusader Campaign by thugsXIX.c.: Anarchists in Russia, and Ireland•XX.c.: Assassination of Archduke Ferenc Ferdinánd by a thug•1936,1949,1967,1973: Terrorist attacks among Arabic states and Israel•1968: Hijack of airplanes•1972: Olympic games in Münich•1979: Appearance of armed „combat” Islam, hostage takings•1995: 14 combat Islamic groups all over the world

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TERRORIST ATTACKS: MOTIVATION, STRATEGY

•Before 1990: terrorism existed in a solid, moderated form•Since 1990: in a new way, in a more cruel form: it wasmeant to create a political will

Motivation (examples without completeness!):• political terrorism• ethnic based terrorism• nationalism related terrorism• terrorism in ideological

interest• Terrorism rooted from

religious fanatism

• psychologic terrorism• terrorism usinglegal base

• terrorism with economic interest

• sociologically motivatedterrorism

Lessons learned: Terrorist attacks on 11 Sep 2001

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The judgment of Terrorist Attacks on Sep 2001:• the action of International Terrorism• precise planning in advance• intended against symbols (political, economic, national, mil.)• shocking vision (CNN - effect)• very effective in emotional point of view •(Americans are vulnerable in their homes)

For the possible effective, efficient counter-activity:• the need of international co-operation („Alliance+”)• international intelligence co-operation in the prevention• the cut down of the possible financial resources of the terrorists• the reduce of distortion which are caused by Globalization • preparation, co-operation, Crisis Management!

SUPER-TERRORISM

• aim: to threaten as large group of people as possible;

• means: weapons of mass destruction;

• geographical area: no limitations;

• counter-measures: priority of prevention

• possible example: Iran’s or North Korea’s connections to terrorist groups;

In case of an US attack on Iran or North Korea, as a finalresource they can employ/use WMD !?!

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MODERN PIRACY 1.

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The ‘pirates’:

• EtymologyThe English „pirate” is derived from the Latin term „pirata” and that from Greek„peirates” („brigand”, attempt, experinece). The word is also cognate to ‘peril’.

• DefinitionMaritime piracy, according to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea(UNCLOS) of 1982, consists of any criminal acts of violence, detention, rape, ordepredation committed for private ends by the crew or the passengers of a private ship or aircraft that is directed on the high seas against an other ship, aircraft, or against persons or property on board a ship or aircraft. Piracy can also be committed against a ship, aircraft, persons, or property in a placeoutside the jurisdiction of any state, in fact piracy has been the first example of universaljurisdiction.

On one voyage across the Aegean Sea in 75 BC, Julius Caesar was kidnapped by Cilicianpirates and held prisoner in the Dodecanese islet of Pharmacusa!

67BC: the Roman Senate to deal with piracy: the Lex Gabinia.

MODERN PIRACY2.

The pirates, as the legends from the dark past, Blackbeard, Calico Jack Rackham aliasJolly Roger, …, Vikings from Scandinavia, …, Muslim pirates in the Mediterranean Sea,…, Slavic pirates at the land of Pagania, …, the Narentines at Venice, …, Irish pirates in937,…, Chinese pirates during the mid-Qing dynasty, …, Zaporizhian Sich as a piraterepublic in the remote Steppe, …, the Barbary pirates from North Africa, …, Caribbeanpiracy, …, vs. Privateers or corsairs with a letter of marque from a government …

Piracy: is a war-like act committed by private parties that engage in acts of robberyand/or criminal violence at sea!

• nowadays yearly 600 cases of pirates’ attacks reported worldwide

• difficulties with arresting modern pirates: the police do not have authority and cannot domuch at the open sea (many countries even do not have a water police, the authorities arenot always against the pirates …)

Piracy should be distinguished from privateering, which was authorized by their national authorities and therefore a legitimate from of war-like activity by non-state actors!

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MODERN PIRACY3.

There are two types of modern pirates’ existence: a) small-time pirates,b) organizations of pirates

Smal-time pirates: are mostly interested in loot and the safe of the ship they attack

Organized pirates: are groups connected to other similar groups, some important persons, they work for, or even with the authorities

• Their goals aren’t just looting of the small ships• they attack for fulfilling their part of the business• they are usually only one link in a criminal chain• they are much more different than the old sea robbers• their speed boats have radars, sonars, several ways of communications (satelitte), weaponslike machine-guns, torpedoes, RPG rocket propelled grenades, molotov-coctails

The acts of today’s pirates are similar to the acts of the famous pirates from over 300 yearsago: they still practice kidnapping people for ransom, robbing and murdering

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MODERN PIRACY4.• Modern pirates usually target small cargo ships

• If the pirates plan to rob a bigger ship, they snick in before the ship starts sailing• they jump over into the ship they plan to assault

Modern piracy - proves an ever growing threat to the freedom of the seas- endangering global commerce and security- continues to take ships hostage in hope of receiving large ransom sums for the exchangeof cargo and individuals held hostage

- particularly in the waters between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean- recent surge in piracy off the Somali coast spurred a multi-national effort to patrol thewaters near the Horn of Africa!

- other active areas include the South China Sea and the Niger Delta!

• Q: What can be done to combat this ominous threat?• A: With as many as 20K ships traveling each year in the Gulf of Aden alone, THERE IS A CLEAR NEED FOR EXPANDED ANTI-PIRACY EFFORTS to protect this ships and ensure the security of global commerce and the maritime domain!

MODERN PIRACY 5.

Modern Piracy Map

• the interesting Google map of pirate attacks

• the data from the IMB (International Maritime Bureau) Piracy Reporting Center!

Check out the interactive map at the IMB live piracy map, 2007-2010

Modern piracy can also take place in conditions of political unrest. For example: Following the disintegration of the government of Somalia, warlords in the

region have attacked ships delivering UN food aid!

! Environmental action groups such as Sea Shepherd have been accused of engaging inpiracy and terrorism, when they ram and throw butyric acid on the decks of ships engaged in commercial fishing, shark poaching and finning, seal hunting, and whaling!!

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MODERN PIRACY 6.

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Modern definition of piracy include the following acts:

- Boarding

- Extortion

- Hostage taking

- Kidnapping of people for ransom

- Murder

- Robbery

- Sabotage resulting in the ship subsequently sinking

- Seizure of items or the ship

- Shipwrecking done intentionally to a ship

! In modern times, shipes and airplanes are hijacked for political reasons as well !!!

MODERN PIRACY 7.

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Attempts against piracy:

- International ships equipped with helicopters patrol the waters where pirate activity hasbeen reported (but the area is very large …)

- Some ships are equipped with anti-piracy weaponry such as sonic device that sends asonic wave out to a directed target

- Self protection measures and increased patrol!

Legal authority:

- The goal is to „deter and disrupt” pirate activity

- detain, interrogate, disarm pirates

- to apply existing maritime law, international law, countries’ own law

But: Modern laws against piracy are almost non-existent! (No detention policy, no witnesses, no translaters, and coutries are reluctant to imprison pirates …)

MODERN PIRACY 8.

Pirate: „Captive Danes will be die if rescue attempted”

- a Danish family captured by pirates in the Indian Ocean, Febr 2011,

- four American sailors slain by their captors a week before by Somali pirates!

The American deaths were a game-changer in the world of piracy: Somali pirates have captured hundreds of ships and thousands of crew members over the years, all thehostages were released unharmed after pirates negotiated multimillion dollar ransoms for them and their ships.

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Global Global Emerging IssuesEmerging Issues

•• Political InstabilityPolitical Instability•• Terrorists, & Insurgency events, trends and groupsTerrorists, & Insurgency events, trends and groups•• CRBN proliferationCRBN proliferation•• Modern PiracyModern Piracy•• Social instability Social instability –– drugs, poverty, environment & crimedrugs, poverty, environment & crime•• Energy Security Energy Security (as an Act of economic terrorism: Iraq, when (as an Act of economic terrorism: Iraq, when

terrorists sabotaged pipelines)terrorists sabotaged pipelines)

•• Ethnic violence Ethnic violence –– separatism & civil warseparatism & civil war•• Serious and organized crimeSerious and organized crime

The Emerging threats which may either gradually or The Emerging threats which may either gradually or catastrophically face the Worldcatastrophically face the World’’s public: s public:

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-- The growing power and influence of Iran, The growing power and influence of Iran,

-- The increasing nuclear proliferation , the threat from Iran, NThe increasing nuclear proliferation , the threat from Iran, North Korea orth Korea and the challenge of Nuclear Terrorism!and the challenge of Nuclear Terrorism!

-- A nuclear terrorist strike,A nuclear terrorist strike,

-- The Cyberspace threats,The Cyberspace threats,

-- The The ‘‘lose nukeslose nukes’’ threats. threats.

The The Future Strategic TrendsFuture Strategic Trends AssessmentAssessment

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-- The Impact of Climate Change, and Environmental developments,The Impact of Climate Change, and Environmental developments,

-- Major population movements,Major population movements,

-- Growing water scarcity,Growing water scarcity,

-- Competition for energy sources,Competition for energy sources,

-- The security of sea lanes of communication,The security of sea lanes of communication,

-- The continued rise of Islamism,The continued rise of Islamism,

-- The breakThe break--down of old orders, and Alliances down of old orders, and Alliances

•• Q: Q: HowHow UN, EU, NATO, other IC/IOs can balance the demands of UN, EU, NATO, other IC/IOs can balance the demands of present campaigns with the need to respond to the range of posspresent campaigns with the need to respond to the range of possible ible challenges (internal, regional, and international instability, achallenges (internal, regional, and international instability, and conflicts) nd conflicts) in the futurein the future?!??!?

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The The Impact of Climate ChangeImpact of Climate Change, and Environmental , and Environmental developments:developments:

•• Reduced access to potable water;Reduced access to potable water;

•• Impaired food production as a result of either Impaired food production as a result of either -- rising temperatures,rising temperatures,-- desertification,desertification,-- lack of waterlack of water,,-- land loss, land loss, -- flooding,flooding,-- reduced or nowreduced or now--unreliable supplies of clean water or unreliable supplies of clean water or …… such as fisheries;such as fisheries;

•• Displacement of populations;Displacement of populations;

•• Other environmentally driven factors, are all well known consequOther environmentally driven factors, are all well known consequences of climate ences of climate change!change!

These factors will stress the ability of nations to meet the essThese factors will stress the ability of nations to meet the essential needs of their ential needs of their populations, as well as to govern and maintain peaceful relationpopulations, as well as to govern and maintain peaceful relations with neighbours s with neighbours claiming access to the same, increasingly scarce resources!!claiming access to the same, increasingly scarce resources!!

The WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction) and the Climate The WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction) and the Climate Change Change ……

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•• The newest threat: Proliferation of Nuclear Technology and ExperThe newest threat: Proliferation of Nuclear Technology and Expertise (from tise (from North Korea to Burma) North Korea to Burma)

•• The horrifying potential for the proliferation of The horrifying potential for the proliferation of WMD with the Climate WMD with the Climate Change Change ‘‘effectseffects’’ dramatically raising the risks!dramatically raising the risks!

Q: Have any (US, EU, NATO, Q: Have any (US, EU, NATO, ……) traditional defence planning ) traditional defence planning processes adequately incorporated the potential implications processes adequately incorporated the potential implications and impact of those climate and environmentally driven and impact of those climate and environmentally driven effects?effects?

A: Not!A: Not!

The The North Korea vs. South Korea, @2011North Korea vs. South Korea, @2011

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QQ: : WhoWho’’s responsibilitys responsibility::•• The The sinking of the South Koreasinking of the South Korea’’s corvette Chon An in March 2010s corvette Chon An in March 2010•• The shelling of Yeonpyeong an island in the West Sea (Yellow SeaThe shelling of Yeonpyeong an island in the West Sea (Yellow Sea), Nov 2010;), Nov 2010;

AA: The first inter: The first inter--Korea military talks since Nov 2010, Korea military talks since Nov 2010, in the truce village at Panmunjom, 8in the truce village at Panmunjom, 8--11 February 2011;11 February 2011;But: North Korean delegation walked out of the talks But: North Korean delegation walked out of the talks ……

•• The North Korean aimThe North Korean aim: to get humanitarian aid and bringing the USA back to the : to get humanitarian aid and bringing the USA back to the negotiating table!negotiating table!

•• New issue in the NorthNew issue in the North: reports of a foot and mouth disease outbreak! : reports of a foot and mouth disease outbreak!

Q: How to improve the NorthQ: How to improve the North--South relations?South relations?A: Active dialogue! A: Active dialogue!

T H A N K Y O U F O R A T T E N T I O N !T H A N K Y O U F O R A T T E N T I O N !

Q U E S T I O N SQ U E S T I O N S ??

MGen MGen dr. dr. ISASZEGI, JanosISASZEGI, JanosIraq, Afghanistan, Balkans, Middle East SME Iraq, Afghanistan, Balkans, Middle East SME Budapest, HUNGARY Budapest, HUNGARY

[email protected] [email protected]

[email protected] [email protected]

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