new century resources €¦ · new century resources believes that the production target, forecast...
TRANSCRIPT
NEW CENTURY RESOURCESNorth American Roadshow PresentationJune 2018
www.newcenturyresources.com
ASX: NCZ
Cautionary StatementsNew Century Resources believes that the production target, forecast financial information derived from that target and other forward looking statements included in this presentation are based onreasonable grounds. However, neither the Company nor any other person, including Sedgman Pty Ltd makes or gives any representation, assurance or guarantee that the production target orexpected outcomes reflected in this announcement in relation to the production target will ultimately be achieved.
Investors should note that the Company believes the commodity prices, AUD:USD exchange rate and other variables that have been assumed to estimate the potential revenues, cash flows andother financial information are based on reasonable grounds as at the date of this presentation. However, actual commodity prices, exchange rates and other variables may differ materially over thecontemplated mine life and, accordingly, the potential revenue, cash flow figures and other financial information provided in discussions set out in this announcement should be considered as anestimate only that may differ materially from actual results. Accordingly, the Company cautions investors from relying on the forecast information in this announcement and investors should not makeany investment decisions based solely on the results.
A number of key steps need to be completed in order to bring the Century Zinc Mine into production. Many of those steps are referred to in this presentation and previously released RestartFeasibility Study announcement. Investors should note that if there are any delays associated with completing those steps, or completion of the steps does not yield the expected results, therevenue and cash flow figures may differ materially from actual results.
To achieve the range of outcomes indicated in this presentation, additional funding in the order of A$63 million will likely be required to achieve full production above the initial A$50 million capitaloutlay to bring the project into initial production. While the Company has significant cash reserves and anticipated cashflows from operations, investors should note there is no certainty that theCompany will be able to raise any additional funding if needed. It is also possible that such funding may only be available on terms that may be dilutive to or otherwise affect the value of theCompany’s existing shares.
Certain statements contained in this presentation constitute forward looking statements. Forward looking information often relate to statements concerning New Century Resources’ future outlookand anticipated events or results and, in some cases can be identified by terminology such as “may”, “will”, “could”, “should”, “expect”, “plan”, “anticipate”, “believe”, “intend”, “estimate”, “projects”,“predict”, “potential”, “continue” or other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. Statements of historical fact are not considered forward looking information.
Forward looking statements are based on a number of material factors and assumptions, including, but not limited in any manner to, those disclosed in results; the ability to explore; communicationswith local stakeholders and community and government relations; status of negotiations of joint ventures; weather conditions; Ore Reserves; Mineral Resources; the development approach andschedule; the receipt of required approvals, titles, licenses and permits; sufficient working capital to develop and operate the mines and implement development plans; access to adequate servicesand supplies; foreign currency exchange rates; access to capital markets; availability of qualified work force; ability to negotiate, finalise and execute relevant agreements; lack of social opposition tomines or facilities; lack of legal challenges with respect to the property; the timing and amount of future production and ability to meet production, operating and capital cost expenditure targets;timing and ability to produce studies and analysis; execution of the credit facility; ability to draw under the credit facility and satisfy conditions precedent including execution of security andconstruction documents; economic conditions; availability of sufficient funding; the ultimate ability to mine, process and sell the mineral products produced; the timing, exploration, development,operational, financial, budgetary, economic, legal, social and political factors that may influence future events or operating conditions. Forward looking statement are only predictions based on NewCentury Resources’ current expectations and projections of future events. Actual results may vary from such forward looking information for a variety of reasons.
Forecast financial information provided in this presentation is based on the Restart Feasibility Study. The Company is of the view it has reasonable grounds for providing the forward lookingstatements included in this presentation. However, the Company cautions that there is no certainty that the forecast financial information derived from the production targets will be realised. TheCompany confirms that all material assumptions underpinning the production target and forecast financial information contained in the Company’s ASX Announcements on 28 November 2017 and 15January 2018 continue to apply and have not materially changed.
Other than required by law, New Century Resources assumes no obligation to update any forward looking information to reflect, among other things, new information or future events.
2ASX: NCZ | Page
COMPANY OVERVIEW
3
Restarting Century operations in August 2018 as a globally significant zinc producer
Century Processing Plant
Corporate Overview: ASX300 Listed, Cashflow in Q3 2018
ASX: NCZ | Page 4
ASX Code NCZ
Shares 504M
Options (av. price A$0.42/share*) 115M
Market Cap (at $A1.30/share)A$655M
(US$505M)
Cash & Receivables# (1 June 2018)
MRI Debt Facility (undrawn)^A$ 71.7MA$ 19.5MA$91.2M
(US$70.2M)
Share Ownership:InstitutionsBoard, Mgmt & Rel. Parties
27%36%
Analyst CoverageCredit Suisse
Patersons
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE
* Option price range from $0.25/share to $1.99/share, representing a total consideration of A$49.3M if fully exercised# Receivables include MMG Support Payments and the Gulf Communities Trust which supports ongoing native title obligations (see ASX Announcement 20 June 2017)^ US$15M debt facility with MRI Trading AG, assuming $0.77 AUD/USD exchange rate
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
$1.60
7/18/17 8/18/17 9/18/17 10/18/17 11/18/17 12/18/17 1/18/18 2/18/18 3/18/18 4/18/18 5/18/18
Total Volume Traded Closing Price
Volume
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
Value: Compelling Investment Proposition vs Base Metal Peers
ASX: NCZ | Page 5
Source: BMO CM Equity Research, FactSet, ThomsonONE (priced to respective market close 6th June 2018)* Arizona Mining EBITDA estimate based on 2022 as FactSet consensus start-up
Price to Net Asset Value1.33x
1.17x 1.17x 1.05x
0.91x 0.83x 0.77x 0.77x 0.73x
0.45x
Boliden(STO: BOL)
Sandfire(ASX: SFR)
Western Areas(ASX: WSA)
OZ Minerals(ASX: OZL)
Nyrstar(EBR: NYR)
Nexa(TSE: NEXA)
Trevali(TSE: TV)
Vedanta(LON: VED)
Arizona Mining(TSX: AZ)
New Century(ASX: NCZ)
Enterprise Value to 2019 EBITDA
6.9x 6.5x 6.4x
4.5x 3.8x 3.7x 3.6x 3.5x
2.5x 1.9x
OZ Minerals(ASX: OZL)
Western Areas(ASX: WSA)
Boliden(STO: BOL)
Vedanta(LON: VED)
Nexa(TSE: NEXA)
Nyrstar(EBR: NYR)
Arizona Mining(TSX: AZ)
Sandfire(ASX: SFR)
Trevali(TSE: TV)
New Century(ASX: NCZ)
Average: 0.92x
Average: 4.3x*
6ASX: NCZ | Page
New Century Board & Management: Experienced Team
Board Management
Patrick WaltaManaging Director
(Co-Founder of Raging Bull Group)
Evan CranstonExecutive Chairman
(Principal of Konkera Corporate)
Tolga KumovaCorporate Director
(Ex. Syrah Resources MD)
Barry HarrisChief Operating Officer(Ex. MMG & Downer GM)
Tom EadieIndependent Non-Exec.
(Ex. Pasminco Exploration GM)
Bryn HardcastleNon-Exec. Director
(MD Bellanhouse Legal)
Oonagh MaloneCompany Secretary
(Corporate Service Professional)
John CarrChief Business Development Officer
(Ex. Clean TeQ Mining GM)
Peter WatsonIndependent Non-Exec.
(Ex. Sedgman MD)
ASX: NCZ | Page 7
Century Value Proposition: Production Scheduled for August 2018
Ore Reserve & Production Capacity: • Reserves: 2.3Mt zinc & 29.7Moz silver (77.3Mt at 3.1% ZnEq)• Production: 264,000tpa zinc & 3Moz pa silver (in 500ktpa of concentrate)
Mine Life:
• Initial mine life of 6.3 years (from existing Reserves only)• In-situ Resources to provide mine life extension (9.3Mt at 10.8% Zn + Pb)• Active exploration programs across 1,800km2 tenement package
Lowest Quartile Cash Cost Operations:
• C1 & C3 Cash Costs = US$0.38/lb & US$0.50/lb
Robust Project Economics:
Value Metric (after tax)
At Zinc US$1.25/lb (US$2,750/t)
NPV8US$1.0 Billion
(A$1.3 Billion)
IRR 270%
Free Cashflow US$1.4 Billion (A$1.8 Billion)
8ASX: NCZ | Page
Century Value Proposition: World Class Existing Infrastructure
Flotation Plant
Karumba Port Facility MV Wunma Transhipper
Operationally Ready Support Facilities
ASX: NCZ | Page 9
• Globally, zinc project permitting, financing
& development timelines are increasing
• Continued stretching of the zinc mine
development pipeline
• Century is a truly unique value proposition
for exposure to large scale zinc operations
Source: Wood Mackenzie, June 2018
Zinc Mine Development Timelines (Average timeline from scoping study to operations)
All Zinc Projects Since 2000 9 Years
Current Top 10 Zinc Producers 13 Years
Century Restart 1 Year
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Red DogRampua Agucha
CayeliMcArthur River
CanningtonLisheenCentury
AntaminaMt GarnetSkorpion
Duck PondSan Cristobal
Cerro LindoJaguar
Rapu RapuPerseverance
PenasquitoCampo Morado
AngasPirquitas
TerrafameWolverine
BolañosFresnillo Saucito
RaspLalor LakeAl Masane
Bracemac-McLeodEscobalPerkoa
BishaSilvertipSoremi
GuojiagouDugald River
GamsbergCentury Restart
Scoping work
Feasibility work
Construction
Century Restart
Century Value Proposition: Leveraging the Value of Sunk Capital
Century Restart: Ramping up to be a Top 10 Zinc Producer
ASX: NCZ | Page 10
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Rampura-Agucha(Hindustan Zinc)
Red Dog (Teck) Antamina# Mount Isa Pb/Zn(Glencore)
Century (NewCentury
Resources)
San Cristobal(Sumitomo)
Gamsberg(Vedanta)
Penasquito(Goldcorp)
McArthur River(Glencore)
Dugald River(MMG)
2020
For
ecas
t Z
inc
Pro
duc
tion
(kt
pa)
Source: Wood Mackenzie, June 2018 (percentages reflect proportion of forecast 2020 global zinc production)# Antamina ownership: BHP Billiton (33.75%), Glencore (33.75%), Teck (22.5%), Mitsubishi (10%)
Century Restart: A Lowest Cost Quartile Primary Zinc Operation
ASX: NCZ | Page 11
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.00 25 50 75 100
Tot
al C
ash
Cos
ts*
(US¢
/lb
)
Production (%)
Mine (¢/lb) Mill (¢/lb) TCRC+Shipment (¢/lb) Royalty (¢/lb)
1012 2025 3037 4049
Payable Zinc (000 tonnes)
Century Zinc (New
Century Resources)
Rampura Agucha
(Hindustan Zinc)
Red Dog (Teck)
McArthur River
(Glencore)
San Cristobal (Sumitomo
Corporation)
George Fischer
(Glencore)Rosebery
(MMG)
Source: SNL Metals & Mining: 2016 data excluding NCZ* Total Cash Costs represents the total mine site costs, transport & offsite costs, smelting & refining costs, royalties and taxes, net of by-product credits, on a payable metal basis
12
ZINC MARKET OVERVIEW
Century is forecast to be the largest new supply of zinc globally for the next 4 years
Historical operation of New Century’s MV Wunma, loading zinc concentrate into an export bulk carrier in the Gulf of Carpentaria, ~20km offshore
13ASX: NCZ | Page
Zinc Consumption: Demand Fundamentals Remain Strong
10 Year Zinc Outlook
• Global demand forecast to grow by 2% annually
• Consumption dominated by China and growing
living standards
• 2028 consumption forecast: 17.5Mt zinc metal
• 287,000t additional metal per annum required
to meet demand (i.e. another New Century
required to come online each year)
USA, 7%
India, 5%
Other (all <5%), 39%
China, 48%
ZincConsumption by Country
Galvanizing, 60%
Other, 2%
Semi-Manufactured Products, 5%
Chemicals, 9%
Brass & Bronze
Casting, 11%
Die-casting Alloys, 13%
ZincConsumption by First Use
Source: Wood Mackenzie, June 2018
14
Zinc Supply: Price Buffered by New Projects Delays
Forecast‘Probable’ >100ktpa
Zinc OperationsLocation
Est. Start Date
Full Production
Est. Capex
Project Permitted?
McArthur River Exp.(Glencore) Australia 2019 185ktpa US$100M No
Kipushi(Ivanhoe Mines) DRC 2020 225ktpa US$400M No
Citronen(Ironbark Zinc) Greenland 2021 200ktpa US$500M Yes
Dairi(NFC) Indonesia 2021 125ktpa US$175M Yes
Aznalcollar(Grupo Mexico) Spain 2022 100ktpa US$350M No
Huoshaoyun(Xinjiang Zinc) China 2022 350ktpa US$1,500M Yes
Ozernoe(Metropol) Russia 2022 300ktpa US$1,500M No
Tala Hamza(Terramin) Algeria 2022 175ktpa US$580M No
Pavlovskoye(Rosatom) Russia 2023 150ktpa US$400M Yes
Source: Wood Mackenzie, June 2018
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
Zinc Production (Mt)
Zinc Price (US$/t)
ROW Probable & Possible China Probable & PossibleGlobal Production Woodmac 2017 Zinc Price Forecast US$/t Woodmac 2018 Zinc Price Forecast US$/t
Forecast zinc price remains reliant on several additional new projects coming online
Forecast zinc price peak shifting as new projects are delayed
Forecast long run average zinc price
increased to US$2,820/t
ASX: NCZ | Page
On track for August 2018 first production
15
CENTURY RESTART WELL ADVANCED
Tailings Receival Sump works as part of establishment of hydraulic mining operations for the Century Tailings Deposit
16ASX: NCZ | Page
Strategy: Tailings Reprocessing Facilitates Site RehabilitationCentury Mine Overview • Economic Rehabilitation: Focus on
site rehabilitation via continued
operations/cashflow
• 35-40% of site rehabilitation
facilitated by tailings reprocessing
operations
• A$81M provision for finalising
capping of the waste dumps
included in cashflow model
• Strategy allows for effective site
rehabilitation during tailings
reprocessing
ASX: NCZ | Page 17
Deposit Geology: Independently Estimated & Audited
Rigorous Geological Assessment:
• 291 holes & >3,600 individual 1m composite multi element assays
• Strong vertical and lateral grade continuity
• Minimal ore body oxidation (2.4%)
Deposit Cross Section A-A’
Deposit Plan View
Century Tailings Deposit
Tonnes (Mt)
Zinc Eq (%)
Zinc (%)
Silver (g/t)
Zn Metal (t)
Ag Metal (Oz)
Proved Ore Reserve
77.3 3.1 3.0 12.4 2,287,000 29,735,000
18ASX: NCZ | Page
Deposit Metallurgy: Consistent Life of Mine Recoveries
Metallurgical Testwork
Zinc Concentrate
Total Zinc Recovery
Zinc Grade (%)
Silver Recovery
Silver Grade (g/t)
Met Domain 1 63% 51% 58% 208
Met Domain 2 62% 52% 55% 195
Met Domain 3 61% 50% 49% 188
Met Domain 4 64% 50% 61% 172
Met Domain 5 61% 50% 55% 198
Met Domain 6 63% 50% 56% 202
Met Domain 7 61% 50% 55% 166
Met Domain 8 64% 53% 63% 259
Combined Domains 63% 51% 61% 213
Deposit Metallurgical Domains
1
2
34
56
78
Rigorous Metallurgical Development:
• Multiple rounds of independent testwork in three separate laboratories
• On-site 10,000t bulk trial (completed by MMG in 2015)
• ALS Laboratory Demo Plant trial (completed by New Century in 2018)
• Concentrate quality underpinned by 5 separate offtake agreements
with both established commodity traders and a smelter (Nyrstar)
On-site 10,000t Bulk Trial ALS Labs Demo Plant
19ASX: NCZ | Page
Flowsheet: Simple Flowsheet Utilising Existing Infrastructure
20ASX: NCZ | Page
Century Restart: Production Profile
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019
Ann
ualis
ed T
hrou
ghp
ut (
Mtp
a)
Met
al P
rod
ucti
on (
tonn
es)
Quarterly Metal Production (tonnes) Annualised Throughput (Mtpa)
Initial production at a rate of 8Mtpa throughput, with progressive ramp up to 15Mtpa over 15 months
21ASX: NCZ | Page
Century Restart: Operating Costs
OPEXA$/Feed
OreUS$/Feed
OreUS$/lb Zn (payable)
C3 Cash Costs
Hydraulic Mining 2.75 2.12 0.06
Processing Plant 10.31 7.94 0.22
Sale Costs, inc transport, TCs & silver credit
4.63 3.57 0.10
C1 Cash Costs 17.69 13.62 0.38
Depreciation 1.48 1.14 0.03
C2 Cash Costs 19.17 14.76 0.41
Royalties & Corporate Costs 3.97 3.06 0.09
C3 Cash Costs 23.14 17.82 0.50
Royalties15%
Maintenance4%
Offsite: Transport &
Treatment Costs14%
Onsite: Operating Consumables & Equip
21%
Labour12%
Power22%
G&A, Enviro & Depreciation
8%
Corporate4%
22ASX: NCZ | Page
Century Restart: Capital Costs & Earnings Profile
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
A$M
EBITDA Capital Expenditure Sustaining Capex & Rehabilitation
Average Life of Mine EBITDA = US$337M per annum (A$449Mpa) at long term zinc price of US$1.25/lb
23ASX: NCZ | Page
Century Restart: Sensitivity & Scenario Analysis
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Long Term Zinc PriceLong Term AUD/USD NPV8 (post-tax) IRR Free Cashflow
Optimistic Case US$1.50/lb (US$3,306/t) $0.75US$1.3 Billion (A$1.7 Billion) 350%
US$1.8 Billion (A$2.3 Billion)
Base Case US$1.25/lb (US$2,755/t) $0.75US$1.0 Billion(A$1.3 Billion) 270%
US$1.4 Billion (A$1.8 Billion)
Bearish Case US$1.00/lb (US$2,204/t) $0.75US$0.7 Billion (A$0.9 Billion) 190%
US$0.9 Billion (A$1.2 Billion)
1,050 1,150 1,250 1,350 1,450 1,550
Silver Price
Capex
Labour Cost
Operating Consumables
Power Cost
Discount Rate
Recoveries
Exchange Rate
Zinc Price
NPV8 (A$M)
-10% +10%
Base Case NPV8
TORNADO ANALYSIS
In-situ Resources: Feasibility Study underwayNew Targets: Drilling & IP program underway
24
MINE LIFE EXPANSION
Historical Big Zinc pit outline and existing Century Processing Plant
In-situ Mineral Resources: 9.3Mt at 10.8% Zn + Pb
ASX: NCZ | Page 25
26ASX: NCZ | Page
South Block Deposit
• Part of original Century ore body
• Simple cut back & open pit operation
• Cultural heritage access approvals in place
South Block Deposit Tonnes (Mt) Zinc (%) Lead (%) Silver (g/t) Metal (t)
Total (Indicated) 6.1 5.3 1.5 43 322kt Zn, 90kt Pb, 8.6Moz Ag
27ASX: NCZ | Page
Silver King Deposit
Identified SK extension potential:2.7m at 12.2% Zn+Pb from 284m
4.0m at 7.48% Zn+Pb from 283m4.6m at 11.1% Zn+Pb from 311m
2.0m at 10.2% Zn+Pb from 276m
Silver King Deposit Tonnes (Mt) Zinc (%) Lead (%) Silver (g/t) Metal (t)
Total (Inferred) 2.7 6.9 12.5 120 186kt Zn, 338kt Pb, 10.5Moz Ag
28ASX: NCZ | Page
East Fault Block Deposit
East Fault Block Tonnes (Mt) Zinc (%) Lead (%) Silver (g/t) Metal (t)
Total (Inferred) 0.5 11.6 1.1 48 60kt Zn, 5.5kt Pb, 0.8Moz Ag
• Located adjacent to existing open pit
• Resource begins at 35m, extending to 112m deep
• Simple open pit operation
• Identical mineralisation to adjacent ‘Big Zinc’ ore
• Upside potential via significant drill intercept below planned open pit
Proposed Pit Shell
Identified EFB extension at depth:26.8m at 15.8% Zn from 199m
In-situ Resources: Further Exploration Potential
ASX: NCZ | Page 29
• 2018 Drilling: 2,500m program testing potential Century, Silver King & East Fault Block extensions
• 2018 IP Survey: Four high priority areas identified for pre-drilling IP programs
• New Tenements: 876km2 of new EPMAs targeting century host rocks & faulting
Century Tenements
2018 Drilling Zone
ASX: NCZ | Page 30
Century Restart: Summary
• Fully funded, fully permitted & production scheduled for August 2018
• Ramping up to be one of the top 10 zinc producers in the world
• Design capacity of 264,000tpa of zinc in 507,000tpa of concentrate (52% zinc)
• Highly attractive economics: NPV8 US$1.0B (A$1.3B) & IRR 270% at long term zinc price of US$1.25/lb
• Globally competitive lowest cost quartile primary zinc production (C1: US$0.38/lb, C3: US$0.50/lb)
• In-situ Mineral Resources of 9.3Mt at 10.8% Zn + Pb under assessment for incorporation into operations
31ASX: NCZ | Page
Century JORC 2012 Compliant Reserves & Resources Statement
Mineral Resources Tonnes (Mt)Grade Contained Metal
Zinc (%) Lead (%) Silver(g/t) Zinc (t) Lead (t) Silver (oz)
South Block(Indicated)
6.1 5.3 1.5 43 322,000 90,000 8,550,000
Silver King(Inferred)
2.7 6.9 12.5 120 186,000 337,500 10,500,000
East Fault Block(Inferred)
0.5 11.6 1.1 48 60,000 5,500 800,000
Total Mineral Resources 9.3 6.1 4.7 66 568,000 433,000 19,850,000
Ore Reserves Tonnes (Mt)Grade Contained Metal
ZnEq (%) Zinc (%) Silver (g/t) Zinc (t) Lead (t) Silver (oz)
Century Tailings(Proved Ore Reserve)
77.3 3.1 3.0 12 2,287,662 - 29,734,819
Competent Person Statement & ZnEq Calculation
ZnEq was calculated for each block of the Century Tailings Deposit from the estimated block grades. The ZnEq calculation takes into account, recoveries, payability (including transport and refining charges) and metal prices in generating a zinc equivalent value for each block grade for Ag and Zn. ZnEq = Zn%+ + Ag troy oz/t*0.002573. Metal prices used in the calculation are: Zn US$3,000/t, and Ag US$17.50/troy oz.
The information in this announcement that relates to the Mineral Resources estimate on the Silver King Deposit and the East Fault Block Deposit was first reported by the Company in its prospectus released to ASX on 20 June 2017, and the South Block Deposit was first reported by the Company to the ASX on 15 January 2018. The Company confirms that it is not aware of any new information or data that materially affects the information included in the original market announcements and that all material assumptions and technical parameters underpinning the Mineral Resources estimates in the relevant original market announcements continue to apply and have not materially changed.
The information in this announcement that relates to the Ore Reserve estimate at the Century Tailings Deposit was first reported by the Company in its ASX announcement titled "New Century Reports Outstanding Feasibility Results that Confirm a Highly Profitable, Large Scale Production and Low Cost Operation for the Century Mine Restart" dated 28 November 2017.The Company confirms that it is not aware of any new information or data that materially affects the information included in the original market announcement and that all material assumptions and technical parameters underpinning the estimates in the original market announcement continue to apply and have not materially changed.
New Century Resources LimitedLevel 4, 360 Collins Street, Melbourne VIC 3000
+61 (3) 9070 3300 www.newcenturyresources.com
ContactPatrick Walta
Managing [email protected]