new cars in china

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China - New Cars 0099 - 0358 - 2010

Datamonitor. This profile is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 1

INDUSTRY PROFILE

New Cars in

China

Reference Code: 0099-0358

Publication Date: October 2011


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

China - New Cars 0099 - 0358 - 2010


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Market value

The Chinese new cars market grew by 24% in 2010 to reach a value of $178.7 billion.

Market value forecast

In 2015, the Chinese new cars market is forecast to have a value of $383 billion, an increase of 114.3%

since 2010.

Market volume

The Chinese new cars market grew by 21.2% in 2010 to reach a volume of 11.9 million units.

Market volume forecast

In 2015, the Chinese new cars market is forecast to have a volume of 22.8 million units, an increase of

92.1% since 2010.

Market segmentation

China accounts for 40.3% of the Asia-Pacific new cars market value.

Market share

Shanghai Motor is the leading player in the Chinese new cars market, generating a 27.9% share of the

market's volume.

Market rivalry

Rivalry within the new cars market has been intensified, as a consequence of recent economic turbulence

and the presence of strong, international incumbents.


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CONTENTS

China - New Cars 0099 - 0358 - 2010


TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2MARKET OVERVIEW 7

Market definition 7Research highlights 8Market analysis 9

MARKET VALUE 10MARKET VOLUME 11MARKET SEGMENTATION 12MARKET SHARE 13FIVE FORCES ANALYSIS 14

Summary 14Buyer power 15Supplier power 16New entrants 17Substitutes 18Rivalry 19

LEADING COMPANIES 20Chongqing Changan 20China FAW Group Corporation 21Hyundai Motor Company 22SAIC Group 26

MARKET FORECASTS 28Market value forecast 28Market volume forecast 29

MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS 30APPENDIX 32

Methodology 32Industry associations 33


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CONTENTS

China - New Cars 0099 - 0358 - 2010


Related Datamonitor research 33Disclaimer 34

ABOUT DATAMONITOR 35Premium Reports 35Summary Reports 35Datamonitor consulting 35


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CONTENTS

China - New Cars 0099 - 0358 - 2010


LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: China new cars market value: $ billion, 200610 10Table 2: China new cars market volume: thousand units, 200610 11Table 3: China new cars market segmentation: % share, by value, 2010 12Table 4: China new cars market share: % share, by volume, 2010 13Table 5: Chongqing Changan: key facts 20Table 6: China FAW Group Corporation: key facts 21Table 7: Hyundai Motor Company: key facts 22Table 8: Hyundai Motor Company: key financials ($) 23Table 9: Hyundai Motor Company: key financials (KRW) 24Table 10:

Hyundai Motor Company: key financial ratios 24

Table 11: SAIC: key facts 26Table 12: China new cars market value forecast: $ billion, 201015 28Table 13: China new cars market volume forecast: thousand units, 201015 29Table 14: China size of population (million), 200610 30Table 15: China gdp (constant 2000 prices, $ billion), 200610 30Table 16: China gdp (current prices, $ billion), 200610 30Table 17: China inflation, 200610 31Table 18: China consumer price index (absolute), 200610 31Table 19: China exchange rate, 200610 31


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CONTENTS

China - New Cars 0099 - 0358 - 2010


LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: China new cars market value: $ billion, 200610 10Figure 2: China new cars market volume: thousand units, 200610 11Figure 3: China new cars market segmentation: % share, by value, 2010 12Figure 4: China new cars market share: % share, by volume, 2010 13Figure 5: Forces driving competition in the new cars market in China, 2010 14Figure 6: Drivers of buyer power in the new cars market in China, 2010 15Figure 7: Drivers of supplier power in the new cars market in China, 2010 16Figure 8: Factors influencing the likelihood of new entrants in the new cars market in China, 2010 17Figure 9: Factors influencing the threat of substitutes in the new cars market in China, 2010 18Figure 10:

Drivers of degree of rivalry in the new cars market in China, 2010 19

Figure 11: Hyundai Motor Company: revenues & profitability 25Figure 12: Hyundai Motor Company: assets & liabilities 25Figure 13: China new cars market value forecast: $ billion, 201015 28Figure 14: China new cars market volume forecast: thousand units, 201015 29


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MARKET OVERVIEW

China - New Cars 0099 - 0358 - 2010


MARKET OVERVIEW

Market defini t io n

The new cars market consists of the initial retail sale of passenger cars. The market value is calculated atretail selling price (RSP) and the market volume is given in terms of units sold. Any currency conversions

used in this report have been calculated at constant 2010 annual average exchange rates.

For the purposes of this report, Asia-Pacific comprises Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, New

Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand.


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MARKET OVERVIEW

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Research high l ights

The Chinese new cars market had total revenue of $178.7 billion in 2010, representing a compound

annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.7% between 2006 and 2010.

Market consumption volumes increased with a CAGR of 23.1% between 2006 and 2010, to reach a total

of 11.9 million units in 2010.

The performance of the market is forecast to decelerate, with an anticipated CAGR of 16.5% for the five-

year period 2010 - 2015, which is expected to drive the market to a value of $383 billion by the end of

2015.


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MARKET OVERVIEW

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Market analysis

In 2009 and 2010, the Chinese new cars market experienced strong, double-digit growth. After a

deceleration in 2011, this strong growth is predicted to continue to the end of the forecast period.

The Chinese new cars market had total revenue of $178.7 billion in 2010, representing a compound

annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.7% between 2006 and 2010. In comparison, the Japanese market

declined with a compound annual rate of change (CARC) of -0.9%, and the Indian market increased with

a CAGR of 23.8%, over the same period, to reach respective values of $138.1 billion and $48.5 billion in

2010.

Market consumption volumes increased with a CAGR of 23.1% between 2006 and 2010, to reach a total

of 11.9 million units in 2010. The market's volume is expected to rise to 22.8 million units by the end of

2015, representing a CAGR of 13.9% for the 2010-2015 period.

The performance of the market is forecast to decelerate, with an anticipated CAGR of 16.5% for the five-

year period 2010 - 2015, which is expected to drive the market to a value of $383 billion by the end of2015. Comparatively, the Japanese and Indian markets will grow with CAGRs of 0.7% and 22.6%

respectively, over the same period, to reach respective values of $142.9 billion and $134.5 billion in 2015.


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MARKET VALUE

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MARKET VALUE

The Chinese new cars market grew by 24% in 2010 to reach a value of $178.7 billion.

The compound annual growth rate of the market in the period 200610 was 21.7%.

Table 1: China new cars market value: $ billion, 200610

Year $ billion CNY billion billion % Growth

2006 81.4 552.1 61.3

2007 94.7 642.1 71.3 16.3%

2008 98.5 667.6 74.2 4.0%

2009 144.1 976.9 108.5 46.3%

2010 178.7 1,211.6 134.6 24.0%

CAGR: 200610 21.7%

Source: Datamonitor D A T A M O N I T O R

Figure 1: China new cars market value: $ billion, 200610



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MARKET VOLUME

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MARKET VOLUME

The Chinese new cars market grew by 21.2% in 2010 to reach a volume of 11,871.5 thousand units.

The compound annual growth rate of the market in the period 200610 was 23.1%.

Table 2: China new cars market volume: thousand units, 200610

Year thousand units % Growth

2006 5,175.8

2007 6,297.9 21.7%

2008 6,755.8 7.3%

2009 9,795.9 45.0%

2010 11,871.5 21.2%

CAGR: 200610 23.1%


Figure 2: China new cars market volume: thousand units, 200610



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MARKET SEGMENTATION

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MARKET SEGMENTATION

China accounts for 40.3% of the Asia-Pacific new cars market value.

Japan accounts for a further 31.2% of the Asia-Pacific market.

Table 3: China new cars market segmentation: % share, by value, 2010

Category % Share

China 40.3

Japan 31.2

India 10.9

South Korea 6.6

Rest of Asia-Pacific 11.0

Total 100%


Figure 3: China new cars market segmentation: % share, by value, 2010



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MARKET SHARE

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MARKET SHARE

Shanghai Motor is the leading player in the Chinese new cars market, generating a 27.9% share of the

market's volume.

FAW accounts for a further 12.8% of the market.

Table 4: China new cars market share: % share, by volume, 2010

Company % Share

Shanghai Motor 27.9%

FAW 12.8%

Chongqing Changan 6.0%

Beijing Hyundai 5.9%

Other 47.4%

Total 100%


Figure 4: China new cars market share: % share, by volume, 2010



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FIVE FORCES ANALYSIS

China - New Cars 0099 - 0358 - 2010



The new cars market will be analyzed taking car manufacturers as players. The key buyers will be taken

as consumers and fleet operators, and suppliers of commodity items, such as metals as the key

suppliers.

Summary

Figure 5: Forces driving competition in the new cars market in China, 2010


Rivalry within the new cars market has been intensified, as a consequence of recent economical

turbulences and due to presence of strong, international incumbents.

The new cars market has a large number of buyers. Manufacturers have invested significantly in brand

building. Whilst switching costs are low and buyers are price-sensitive, this brand power means buyer

power is weakened. Key inputs include commodities like steel, whose price may be difficult for

manufacturers to control, and other inputs such as fabricated components and labor. Although there are

high capital requirements for viable manufacturing scale, as the market shows signs of recovering from

the recent economic downturn, incumbents may face more threat from new entrants. Substitutes such as

used cars and public transport offer a strong threat to car makers. Concentration within particular

geographic regions can be quite high, due to years of consolidation that have left relatively few major

players.


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Buyer powerFigure 6: Drivers of buyer power in the new cars market in China, 2010


The new cars market will be analyzed taking manufacturers as players and end-users, both consumers

and fleet operators, as buyers. This assumes that the intermediaries (dealers) are transmitting end-user

demand fairly reliably to manufacturers. The new cars market offers a great deal of choice for customers,

with a variety of manufacturers making products with high levels of differentiation. For many buyers, who

are price-sensitive, switching costs are low. However, manufacturers have invested heavily in brand

building, meaning buyer power is weakened. This market is essentially a polypsony, with a large number

of vehicles being sold to an equally large number of consumers, none of whom have a particularly large

market share. This reduces buyer power. Car leasing companies offer a partial exception to this. Through

bulk purchasing and contractual arrangements, favorable prices can be obtained, along with an enhanced

degree of buyer power. Overall, buyer power in the new cars market is assessed as moderate.


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Suppl ier powerFigure 7: Drivers of supplier power in the new cars market in China, 2010


Key inputs required by car manufactures include commodity items, such as metals, as well as more

differentiated input such as fabricated components, produced by other companies rather than being

manufactured in-house. There is often little to distinguish between suppliers, with raw materials offering

low differentiation. This reduces buyer power somewhat. Despite this, the high importance of the quality

of raw materials and components to the car manufacturers (particularly when safety-critical) can enhance

supplier power. Manufacturers margins have been affected by the global fluctuating price of raw

materials, such as steel and aluminum, during recent years. The upstream competitive landscape is

relatively fragmented, although recent consolidation in the steel industry could boost supplier power.

Typical suppliers are likely to sell to a wide variety of manufacturing companies, with the car market likely

to be contributing only a small share of total supplier revenues. This further strengthens the position of

suppliers. Overall, supplier power is moderate.


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New entrantsFigure 8: Factors influencing the likelihood of new entrants in the new cars market in China,

2010


It is relatively difficult for new players to directly enter a particular countrys market due to the importance

of brand strength and reputation within the new cars market. Those that succeed often do so through the

introduction of successful foreign brands. Due to the high fixed costs in car design and manufacture, as

well as the economies of scale gained from mass production, new start-up companies are rare: the capital

requirements for a manufacturing facility of feasible scale are high. Additionally, many of the major new

car markets have faced recession, with buyers avoiding expensive purchases such as a new car. The

continuing existence of a government scrappage scheme and the strong growth experienced in recent

years may prove attractive for new entrants. Nevertheless, the presence of large, well-established brands

and high fixed costs mean the threat of new entrants is assessed as moderate overall.


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Subst i tutes Figure 9: Factors influencing the threat of substitutes in the new cars market in China, 2010


The main substitutes threatening players in the new cars market are used cars, alternative forms of

personal transport, and public transport. Auto manufacturers totally committed to conventionally-powered

cars may see hybrid powered vehicles as a threat. These are often cheaper alternatives, and offer a more

environmentally friendly option, which is generally rewarded by governments, i.e. through lower taxes.

Public transport, and substitutes, such as cycles, can reduce the effect of volatile fuel prices for the user.

However, end-users may also find them less convenient, less reliable, and less significant as status

symbols. Overall, the threat from substitutes - particularly in countries affected by recession and with high

consumer awareness of environmental factors - is strong.


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RivalryFigure 10: Drivers of degree of rivalry in the new cars market in China, 2010


A relatively small number of large companies dominate the new cars market, with FAW and Chongqing

Changan, holding a strong market position. The market is tending towards concentration, with

international players, such as GM or Volkswagen, through joint ventures with local incumbents, holding a

strong market position. Rivalry is reduced somewhat due to a degree of differentiation, with several

different segments within the market, such as luxury and budget. Companies utilize a high level of design

and marketing to promote their product. The Chinese new cars market has not been as affected as many

by the economic downturn. After a deceleration in 2008, the market has experienced double digit growth

in recent years. Despite this, rivalry in the new cars market is strong.


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LEADING COMPANIES

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LEADING COMPANIES

Chongqing Changan

Table 5: Chongqing Changan: key facts

Head office: No. 199 Wuhong Road, Yubei District, Chongqing, CHN

Telephone: 0086 23 6759 9888 8042

Fax: 0086 23 6785 2882

Website: www.globalchana.com

Source: company website D A T A M O N I T O R

Chongqing Changan (Changan) began manufacturing cars in 1984, although it was first established asthe Shanghai Foreign Gun Bureau in 1862. It is headquartered in Chongqing, China, with production

facilities in Hebei, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, and Beijing, as well as overseas factories in Russia, Malaysia,

Ukraine, Vietnam, and Nigeria. It also has R&D centers in the US, the UK, and Japan. Its workforce is

50,000 strong.

Changans product range currently includes passenger cars, light trucks, and people carriers. In 2009, it

launched an electric car (Benni Mini); the company has also demonstrated a hydrogen-powered engine.

Changan has joint venture agreements with automotive manufacturers such as PSA and Ford.

Key Metrics

As a privately held entity, Chongqing Changan is not obliged to publish its financial results.


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LEADING COMPANIES

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China FAW Group Corporat ion

Table 6: China FAW Group Corporation: key facts

Head office: No 2259 Dongfeng Street, Changchun 130011, CHN

Telephone: 86 431 85900715

Fax: 86 431 85730707

Website: www.faw.com


China FAW Group Corporation (FAW Group) designs, develops, manufactures, and sells passenger cars,

trucks, and buses. The group operates in Asia, Africa, North America, and Europe.

The group offers products such as commercial trucks, which include light, medium, and heavy-duty

trucks; buses and coaches, which include municipal buses, luxury tourist coaches, and custom bus

chassis; passenger cars offered under the brands such as Hongqi, Besturn, and VITA Sedans; mini

vehicles; sport utility vehicles (SUVs) and pickup trucks.

FAW Group also offers components and parts such as diesel engine, gasoline engine, compressed

natural gas (CNG) engine, truck transmission, car transmission, axles, sand casting, sheet molding, die

casting, stamping die, casting mold, steel wheels, engine parts, accessories, air pumps, radiators, brake

pads, brakes, steering gears, water pumps and hubs.

The group's production bases are located in northeast China's Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces, east

China's Shandong province and Tianjin municipality, south China's Hainan province, and southwest

China's Sichuan and Yunnan provinces. It has both cold and semi-tropical weather vehicle testing

facilities.

FAW Group operates through 28 wholly owned subsidiaries and holds controlling interest in 18 partially

owned subsidiaries. Its subsidiaries include FAW Jiefang Truck, FAW Bus and Coach, FAW Car, Tianjin

FAW Xiali Automobile, Changchun FAW Sihuan Automobile, Chun Shing Technology Development, FAW

Vehicle Manufacturers, FAW Japan and FAW International are among others. The group also operates

through its joint ventures such as FAW-Volkswagen Automobile, Tianjin FAW Toyota Motor and FAW

Mazda Motor Sales.

Key Metrics

As a privately held entity, FAW Group is not obliged to publish its financial results.


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LEADING COMPANIES

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Hyundai Motor Company

Table 7: Hyundai Motor Company: key facts

Head office: 231 Yangjae-dong, Seocho-gu, Seoul 137 938, KOR

Telephone: 82 2 3464 1114

Local office: Shuntong Road 18, Linhe Industry Development Zone, ShunyiDistrict, Beijing 101300, CHN

Telephone: 0086 10 8453 9888

Fax: 0086 10 8453 8886

Website: worldwide.hyundai.com

Financial year-end: December

Ticker: 5380

Stock exchange: Seoul


Hyundai Motor Company (Hyundai) is an automobile manufacturer in Korea. The company is engaged in

the design, development and manufacturing of automobiles. The company is part of the Hyundai Group,

which includes companies with diverse market range including electronics, finance, shipping and

shipbuilding. It primarily operates in Korea, North America, Europe and Asia. Hyundai has over 6,000

sales points and 24 overseas manufacturing plants and distributors in 180 countries worldwide.

The company operates through two business segments: non-financial industry and financial industry.

The non-financial industry segment of Hyundai deals with the design, development, and manufacturing of

automobiles. The company divides this segment into three categories: passenger vehicles, recreational

vehicles, and commercial vehicles. Hyundai's product line-up includes subcompact and compact cars;

mini-vehicles; mid-size, luxury, sports and specialty cars; recreational and sport-utility vehicles; pickup

trucks; minivans; trucks and buses.

In FY2010, the company sold approximately 1,730,696 vehicles which included 657,897 vehicles sold in

South Korea and 1,072,799 vehicles sold through exports. Out of the exports, North America accounted

for 287,796 vehicles, Africa and Middle East accounted for 291,148 vehicles, Latin America accounted for

219,786 vehicles, Asia Pacific accounted 169,771 and Europe accounted 104,298.

The company sells its passenger cars through its Equus, Genesis, Azera, Sonata, Getz, Elantra, Accent,

Genesis Coupe, i10, 120, 130, Grandeur, Centennial, and Santro brands. The company markets its

recreational vehicles under Veracraz, Terracan, Santa Fe, Tucson, H1, Trajet, and Matrix brand names.


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LEADING COMPANIES

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Hyundai markets its commercial vehicles including pickup trucks, minivans, trucks and buses through

Hyundai HD, County, Aero town, Super Aero city, Aero, and Universe brand names.

Hyundai owns and operates three principal automobile production plants in Korea: the Ulsan plant, Asan

and Jeonju. Ulsan is Hyundai's chief production plant and is located on a 5,050,000 square meters site

comprising five independent plants. This plant has over 34,000 employees and its daily average

production capacity is 5,400 vehicles. Asan is an independent automobile production plant with a capacity

of producing 30,000 mid to large size passenger vehicles annually. With a capacity of producing 125,000

units per year, the Jeonju plant is specialized in producing mid-to large-sized buses of 2.5 tons or more

apart from trucks, and specialty vehicles. In addition, the company owns nine overseas manufacturing

plants including two plants in China, two in India, and one each in Alabama, Turkey, Czech Republic,

Russia and Brazil.

Hyundai financial services business provides financing to dealers and their customers for the purchase or

lease of the company's vehicles. The company also provides retail leasing through the purchase of leasecontracts originating from Hyundai dealers.

In China, the company operates primarily through Beijing Hyundai. This is a joint venture between

Hyundai and Beijing Automotive Industry Holding Company, established in 2002. At the time of

preparation of this report, Beijing Hyundai had two factories in China. A third was expected to be

operational by 2012, adding capacity of 400,000 vehicles a year.

Key Metrics

The company recorded revenues of $78,856 million in the fiscal year ending December 2009, an increase

of 14.7% compared to fiscal 2008. Its net income was $2,553 million in fiscal 2009, compared to a netincome of $1,248 million in the preceding year.

Table 8: Hyundai Motor Company: key financials ($)

$ million 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Revenues 50,721.6 54,875.0 60,007.9 68,745.8 78,856.1

Net income (loss) 2,025.0 1,315.7 1,450.5 1,248.3 2,553.3

Total assets 22,986.4 22,786.9 25,508.8 27,733.8 30,560.4

Total liabilities 10,008.3 8,948.5 9,815.1 10,790.4 11,567.7Employees 53,218 54,115 55,629 137,000 110,704

Source: company filings D A T A M O N I T O R


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Table 9: Hyundai Motor Company: key financials (KRW)

KRW million 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Revenues 58,830,632.0 63,648,025.0 69,601,504.0 79,736,351.0 91,463,064.0

Net income (loss) 2,348,721.0 1,526,063.0 1,682,419.0 1,447,904.0 2,961,509.0

Total assets 26,661,326.0

26,429,958.0 29,586,929.0

32,167,729.0

35,446,135.0

Total liabilities 11,608,362.0

10,379,130.0 11,384,298.0

12,515,438.0

13,417,112.0


Table 10: Hyundai Motor Company: key financial ratios

Ratio 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Profit margin 4.0% 2.4% 2.4% 1.8% 3.2%

Revenue growth 10.8% 8.2% 9.4% 14.6% 14.7%

Asset growth 8.7% (0.9%) 11.9% 8.7% 10.2%

Liabilities growth 2.4% (10.6%) 9.7% 9.9% 7.2%

Debt/asset ratio 43.5% 39.3% 38.5% 38.9% 37.9%

Return on assets 9.2% 5.7% 6.0% 4.7% 8.8%

Revenue per employee $953,091 $1,014,044 $1,078,716 $501,794 $712,315

Profit per employee $38,051 $24,313 $26,075 $9,112 $23,064



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LEADING COMPANIES

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Figure 11: Hyundai Motor Company: revenues & profitability


Figure 12: Hyundai Motor Company: assets & liabilities



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LEADING COMPANIES

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SAIC GroupTable 11: SAIC: key facts

Head office: No 489 Wei Hai Road, Shanghai 200041, CHN

Telephone: 0086 21 22011688

Fax: 86 21 22011188

Website: www.saicgroup.com

Financial year-end: December


The Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation Group (SAIC Group) is a government-owned company,

which develops, manufactures and sells passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and related components.

The group primarily operates in the US, Europe, and Asia.

The group provides its products and services through three divisions: vehicle; parts and components; and

service and trade.

The SAIC Group offers both passenger and commercial vehicles, which include buses, heavy duty trucks,

tractors, motor cycles, excavators, and dozers.

The group offers parts and components, including trimming, power train, chassis, electronic, air

conditioning, stamped and hot working parts.

The SAIC Group also offers auto logistics including import and export logistic services; international

trading business including vehicle trading and components trading; auto services including auto clubs and

rental, auto related accessories; production and non-production materials trading; financing and leasing

business to traffic and transportation, construction machinery, and production equipment; retail of

vehicles; and investment activities.

The group also provides IT services including business process planning, consulting, technical research

and development, project implementation, operational support, and system integration services through

its subsidiary, Shanghai Automotive Information Systems. The group is also engaged in other businesses

such as hotel management; integrated services for environmental protection of enterprises; leasingbusiness of industrial real estate; and asset management.

The group holds 78.94% of the equity interest of SAIC Motor Corporation and 60.10% of HUAYU

Automotive Systems.


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LEADING COMPANIES

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SAIC Motor Corporation is engaged in research and development, production and sales of vehicles,

including passenger and commercial vehicles; and components, including power train, chassis, electronic

and electric parts that are closely related with the vehicle development; and the auto financial business

that is closely related with the automotive business.

HUAYU Automotive Systems is an independent automotive components business, which operates

through six business divisions such as interior and exterior trimming; metal forming and dies; function

parts; electric and electronics parts; hot-worked parts; and new energy parts covers research and

development, production and sales of automotive components.

The group also operates though other subsidiaries such as Shanghai Tractor & Internal Combustion

Engine, Shanghai Automotive Forging, Shanghai Xingfu Motorcycle, Shanghai Sandmann Foundry,

Shanghai Automotive Industry Sales, Shanghai Automotive Information Systems, Shanghai Automotive

Group (Beijing) and Shanghai Automotive Industry Development Company.

Key Metrics

As a privately held entity, the SAIC Group is not obliged to publish its financial results.


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MARKET FORECASTS

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MARKET FORECASTS

Market value forecast

In 2015, the Chinese new cars market is forecast to have a value of $383 billion, an increase of 114.3%since 2010.

The compound annual growth rate of the market in the period 201015 is predicted to be 16.5%.

Table 12: China new cars market value forecast: $ billion, 201015

Year $ billion CNY billion billion % Growth

2010 178.7 1,211.6 134.6 24.0%

2011 190.8 1,293.7 143.7 6.8%

2012 239.4 1,623.2 180.3 25.5%

2013 280.6 1,902.2 211.3 17.2%

2014 328.8 2,228.8 247.6 17.2%

2015 383.0 2,596.2 288.5 16.5%

CAGR: 201015 16.5%


Figure 13: China new cars market value forecast: $ billion, 201015



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MARKET FORECASTS

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Market volume forecast

In 2015, the Chinese new cars market is forecast to have a volume of 22,802.9 thousand units, an

increase of 92.1% since 2010.

The compound annual growth rate of the market in the period 201015 is predicted to be 13.9%.

Table 13: China new cars market volume forecast: thousand units, 201015

Year thousand units % Growth

2010 11,871.5 21.2%

2011 12,275.7 3.4%

2012 15,197.0 23.8%

2013 17,457.8 14.9%

2014 20,017.9 14.7%

2015 22,802.913.9%

CAGR: 201015 13.9%


Figure 14: China new cars market volume forecast: thousand units, 201015



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MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

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Table 14: China size of population (million), 200610

Year Population (million) % Growth

2006 1,311.0 0.6%

2007 1,317.9 0.5%

2008 1,324.7 0.5%

2009 1,331.4 0.5%

2010 1,338.0 0.5%


Table 15: China gdp (constant 2000 prices, $ billion), 200610

Year Constant 2000 Prices, $ billion % Growth

2006 2,407.2 15.3%

2007 2,822.5 17.3%

2008 3,148.9 11.6%

2009 3,440.2 9.3%

2010 3,794.5 10.3%


Table 16: China gdp (current prices, $ billion), 200610

Year Current Prices, $ billion % Growth

2006 2,712.9 20.2%

2007 3,494.2 28.8%

2008 4,520.0 29.4%

2009 4,987.6 10.3%

2010 5,734.6 15.0%



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China - New Cars 0099 - 0358 - 2010


Table 17: China inflation, 200610

Year Inflation Rate (%)

2006 1.5%2007 4.8%

2008 5.9%

2009 (0.7%)

2010 3.3%


Table 18: China consumer price index (absolute), 200610

Year Consumer Price Index (2000 = 100)2006 108.6

2007 113.8

2008 120.5

2009 119.6

2010 123.6


Table 19: China exchange rate, 200610

Year Exchange rate ($/CNY) Exchange rate (/CNY)

2006 7.9819 10.0145

2007 7.6172 10.4228

2008 6.9623 10.1875

2009 6.8409 9.5123

2010 6.7788 9.0005



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APPENDIX

China - New Cars 0099 - 0358 - 2010


APPENDIX

Methodology

Datamonitor Industry Profiles draw on extensive primary and secondary research, all aggregated,analyzed, cross-checked and presented in a consistent and accessible style.

Review of in-house databases Created using 250,000+ industry interviews and consumer surveys

and supported by analysis from industry experts using highly complex modeling & forecasting tools,

Datamonitors in-house databases provide the foundation for all related industry profiles

Preparatory research We also maintain extensive in-house databases of news, analyst

commentary, company profiles and macroeconomic & demographic information, which enable our

researchers to build an accurate market overview

Definitions Market definitions are standardized to allow comparison from country to country. The

parameters of each definition are carefully reviewed at the start of the research process to ensure they

match the requirements of both the market and our clients

Extensive secondary research activities ensure we are always fully up-to-date with the latest

industry events and trends

Datamonitor aggregates and analyzes a number of secondary information sources, including:

- National/Governmental statistics

- International data (official international sources)

- National and International trade associations

- Broker and analyst reports

- Company Annual Reports

- Business information libraries and databases

Modeling & forecasting tools Datamonitor has developed powerful tools that allow quantitative

and qualitative data to be combined with related macroeconomic and demographic drivers to create

market models and forecasts, which can then be refined according to specific competitive, regulatory

and demand-related factors

Continuous quality control ensures that our processes and profiles remain focused, accurate and

up-to-date


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APPENDIX

China - New Cars 0099 - 0358 - 2010


Indu stry associat ions

International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers

4 rue de Berri, F 75008 Paris, FranceTel.: 0033 1 4359 0013

Fax: 0033 1 4563 8441

http://www.oica.net/htdocs/Main.htm

China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM)

N 46, Sanlihe Road, Xicheng District Beijing 100823

Tel.: 0086 10 6859 4941

Fax: 0086 10 6859 5243

Related Datamon itor research

Industry Profile

Global New Cars

New Cars in Australia

New Cars in Europe

New Cars in Asia-Pacific

New Cars in Japan


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APPENDIX

China - New Cars 0099 - 0358 - 2010


Disclaimer

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ABOUT DATAMONITOR

China - New Cars 0099 - 0358 - 2010


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