new base energy news issue 934 dated 10 october 2016

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Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase Energy News 10 October 2016 - Issue No. 934 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Qatar: Dolphin Energy sees 73% y-o-y reduction in offshore flaring Gulf Times Dolphin Energy has seen a 73% reduction in offshore flaring last year compared to 2014, the company’s ‘2015 Sustainability Report’ has shown. This has been due to the introduction of infrared cameras on the company’s offshore production platforms as part of Dolphin Energy’s commitment to safeguarding the environment. In addition, the company launched Be’ati Watani — the online environmental education platform — across schools in Qatar. The report was developed ‘in accordance’ with the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) G4 Guidelines, option core, emphasising on topics that are material to the business and key stakeholders. As such Dolphin Energy successfully completed the Materiality Disclosure Service provided by the GRI, confirming that the materiality disclosures are aligned with G4 requirements. Notable achievements include the development of the Emergency Pipeline Repair System (EPRS), the successful operation of three new export gas compressors and the drafting of a comprehensive greenhouse gas policy and strategy framework. In addition, the company registered a 15% increase in procurement spending awarded to local suppliers and has made progress in its industrial water management project. In 2015, Dolphin Energy recorded a 50% reduction in the annual accident frequency rate and recorded 42mn man hours without reporting a single lost time incident (LTI). The company also rolled out the ‘Stop & Think’ and ‘Golden Safety Rules’ campaigns to enhance and strengthen the company’s commitment to safety. Furthermore, a safety culture survey was conducted to solicit views and experiences about the safety practices and procedures in place at the company, people’s attitudes and behaviours at the workplace, and their level of commitment to safety.

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Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1

NewBase Energy News 10 October 2016 - Issue No. 934 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE

Qatar: Dolphin Energy sees 73% y-o-y reduction in offshore flaring Gulf Times

Dolphin Energy has seen a 73% reduction in offshore flaring last year compared to 2014, the company’s ‘2015 Sustainability Report’ has shown. This has been due to the introduction of infrared cameras on the company’s offshore production platforms as part of Dolphin Energy’s commitment to safeguarding the environment.

In addition, the company launched Be’ati Watani — the online environmental education platform — across schools in Qatar.

The report was developed ‘in accordance’ with the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) G4 Guidelines, option core, emphasising on topics that are material to the business and key stakeholders.

As such Dolphin Energy successfully completed the Materiality Disclosure Service provided by the GRI, confirming that the materiality disclosures are aligned with G4 requirements.

Notable achievements include the development of the Emergency Pipeline Repair System (EPRS), the successful operation of three new export gas compressors and the drafting of a comprehensive greenhouse gas policy and strategy framework.

In addition, the company registered a 15% increase in procurement spending awarded to local suppliers and has made progress in its industrial water management project.

In 2015, Dolphin Energy recorded a 50% reduction in the annual accident frequency rate and recorded 42mn man hours without reporting a single lost time incident (LTI).

The company also rolled out the ‘Stop & Think’ and ‘Golden Safety Rules’ campaigns to enhance and strengthen the company’s commitment to safety. Furthermore, a safety culture survey was conducted to solicit views and experiences about the safety practices and procedures in place at the company, people’s attitudes and behaviours at the workplace, and their level of commitment to safety.

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2

Community investment contributions reached just over the $5mn mark as the company continued its support for programmes, event and initiatives across culture, the arts, the environment, education and sport.

With regard to nationalisation of the workforce, Dolphin Energy registered 35% across both the UAE and Qatar while the company continued its commitment to the UAE Ministry of Presidential Affairs’ (MOPA) Absher Initiative by training a further 100 UAE nationals in preparation for employment.

The company’s Qatarisation commitments were recognised with the Qatar Petroleum Crystal Award in the field of Training and Development, from Qatar’s Minister of Energy and Industry — the third year running that company received the award.

On the report, Dolphin Energy’s CEO, Adel Ahmed Albuainain said: “The integration of sustainability practices enables us to create long term benefits for the communities in which we operate, for our stakeholders and for our business. We are proud of our achievements to date and will focus on improvements where they need to be made so that we continue to build value in the years ahead.”

Dolphin Energy’s major strategic initiative, the Dolphin Gas Project, involves the production and processing of natural gas from Qatar’s North Field, and transportation of the dry gas by sub-sea export pipeline from Qatar to the UAE, which began in July 2007.

The long term customers for Dolphin Energy’s gas from Qatar are ADWEC (Abu Dhabi Water & Electricity Company), DUSUP (Dubai Supply Authority) and OOC (Oman Oil Company).

Each has signed a gas supply agreement with Dolphin Energy for 25 years.

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

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India: Essar to sell Refinery to Rosneft, Trafigura Deal for B$6.5 Bloomberg - George Smith Alexander

Essar Group, controlled by India’s billionaire Ruia brothers, is nearing a final agreement to sell control of its refinery unit to Russian energy giant Rosneft PJSC and commodities trader Trafigura Group Pte, people with knowledge of the matter said.

The Indian conglomerate aims to sign a binding deal in the next two weeks to sell 49 percent of Essar Oil Ltd. to Rosneft, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. Trafigura is also in advanced talks to buy a minority stake in Essar Oil, the people said. The suitors have been discussing a valuation of about $6.5 billion for Essar Oil, India’s second-largest private refiner, one of the people said.

The board of Rosneft, which signed a non-binding pact on the potential purchase in July 2015, plans to meet Oct. 13 to approve the transaction, according to the people. Essar is considering eventually selling down most of its remaining interest in the refinery business and may keep only a residual stake of 5 percent or less, the people said.

Russia has been cementing energy ties with India, which is expected to surpass Japan as the world’s third-largest oil user this year and be the fastest-growing crude consumer through 2040, according to International Energy Agency estimates. A conclusion to the sale would help Essar Group, which has been grappling with debt after an $18 billion spending spree, generate funds to repay lenders.

“Global players want to bet heavily on the Indian market because India has a huge population as well as rising income,” Jagannadham Thunuguntla, head of fundamental research at Hyderabad-based Karvy Stock Broking Ltd., said by phone Friday. “Its energy needs are growing rapidly both at the consumer level and industry level.”

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Final terms of the deal are currently being negotiated and an agreement could still be delayed, according to the people. Representatives for Essar, Rosneft and Trafigura declined to comment.

Oil and gas companies globally have struck $132 billion of deals this year, down from $196 billion during the same period in 2015, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A group of state-owned Indian energy companies are investing $5.5 billion to buy stakes in Rosneft’s Vankor and Taas-Yuryakh fields.

Essar Oil runs the Vadinar refinery in the western state of Gujarat, which can process about 400,000 barrels a day. Most of the refinery’s output is sold locally, either through its own outlets or to government-owned fuel retailers. In July last year, Rosneft signeda pact to supply Essar Oil about 200,000 barrels of crude per day over 10 years.

The deal being discussed includes the refinery as well as the Vadinar port and more than 2,000 retail gas stations, according to the people. The initial transaction won’t include a power plant serving the refinery, which could be transferred later after getting necessary approvals, the people said.

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US:Shale Explorers Boost Activity Further After OPEC ‘Lifeline’ Blommberg - David Wethe

Explorers added oil rigs in the U.S. for a sixth consecutive week after OPEC’s pledge to cut output triggered a crude market rally, allowing producers to lock in higher prices with hedge contracts.

Rigs targeting crude in the U.S. rose by 3 to 428, adding to the largest level of work since February. Producers haven’t pulled back activity since the end of June. Natural gas rigs fell by 2 to 94 this week, while miscellaneous rigs rose by 1 to 2, bringing the total for oil and gas up by 2 to 524. Despite the overall activity boost, none of the four largest oil basins added rigs.

"Companies are looking at areas that are under-explored or under-developed," James Williams, president of WTRG Economics in London, Arkansas, said Friday in a phone interview. "But what we’re going to see is continued growth in the major oil plays."

Oil breached $50 a barrel for the first time since June this week after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to the first production cut in eight years. By resuming its policy to balance the market, the group threw a “lifeline” to U.S. shale firms and prompted them to hedge “in droves,” Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity research at BNP Paribas SA in London, said last week.

“Every time prices get above the $50 range we see a lot of activity coming in from producers selling into the rally,” said Hamza Khan, an analyst at ING Bank NV in Amsterdam.

Crude output fell by 30,000 barrels a day to 8.47 million last week, the Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday.

The oil price recovery from a 12-year-low in February prompted producers to begin returning parked rigs to service after idling more than 1,000 rigs since the start of last year. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark crude, fell 1.4 percent to $49.73 at 1:15 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

"If the oil price is near current levels two months from now, there’s going to be a significant growth in oil based off of the $50 price we’ve seen," Williams said. "So you’ll also see more oil drilling come November and December."

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Mozambique: Sasol completes first-ever onshore 3D seismic Sopurce: Sasol

Sasol recently announced the completion of the first-ever 3-D onshore seismic programme in Mozambique. This involved the acquisition of 115 square kilometres (km2) of data in the Inhassoro field, which is part of the onshore Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) licence area.

To be developed in phases, the first phase of the PSA licence area development proposes an integrated oil, LPG and gas project adjacent to Sasol’s existing Petroleum Production Agreement (PPA) area. Sasol has made significant progress on Tranche 1 of the PSA Development as approved by the Council of Ministers on 26 January 2016.

Senior Vice President for Sasol Exploration and Production International, John Sichinga, highlighted that: 'The acquisition of the 3-D seismic data in the Inhassoro field will significantly enhance our understanding of the structure of the oil accumulations through better resolution and more defined characterisation of the reservoir. While initial results appear encouraging, it is still too early to give further detail.'

Geofizyka Torun of Poland was contracted by Sasol to acquire 2D/3D seismic data using Vibroseis trucks. These send an acoustic wave into the ground and when the wave is reflected at boundaries between rock layers, an image of the subsurface is generated. The principles are similar to ultrasound

technology used in the medical field. Future well locations can be optimised based on the generated images. Sasol has previously conducted 3-D seismic surveys offshore Mozambique – 1 836 km2 and 2 100 km2 in the M10/ Sofala and Blocks 16/19 respectively – but this is the first time a 3-D seismic campaign has been conducted onshore.

The seismic acquisition programme now moves to the Pande field within the PPA licence area, where 42 km2 of 3D seismic data will be acquired.

Sichinga further provided an update on the PSA drilling campaign, saying that the drilling of the first two wells have been completed.

'The tests conducted thus far have produced encouraging results. During the course of the drilling of the second well, we encountered previously unknown accumulations of hydrocarbons within the development and production area, which indicate the presence of both gas and oil. We have issued a Notice of Discovery to the Mozambican authorities as per the PSA and will continue our evaluation of the data.'

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North Sea Oil and Gas Drilling Activity Plunges to All-Time Low

The number of rigs drilling for oil and gas in the North Sea, home of the Brent crude benchmark, plunged in September to the lowest in nearly 35 years as companies cut spending to weather low prices.

Baker Hughes Inc., the services company that tracks drilling activity worldwide, said just 27 rigs operated last month in the North Sea, the lowest number since records started in January 1982. The previous low was set in October 1999, when oil prices plunged to $10 a barrel.

The North Sea, which includes the shallow waters of the U.K., Norway, Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands, enjoyed its heyday in the 1970s and early 1980s, when a series of big oilfields, including Brent, Forties, Ekofisk and Oseberg, were discovered. The region, where operating costs are relatively high, has been badly hit by the price slump that started in late 2014 when OPEC adopted a policy of pumping at will.

Despite the drop in oil and gas drilling rigs, North Sea production notched two consecutive years of increases in 2014 and 2015 thanks to the tail wind of projects approved during the boom years of $100-a-barrel oil. July output, the latest for which data is available, surged to a four-year high, according to the International Energy Agency.

Job Cuts

The future does look bleak, however, as companies cut spending and fire workers. Oil & Gas U.K., a trade body, said in June that the British oil industry alone will ax 120,000 jobs by the end of the year. The numbers include non-oil producing jobs in the wider economy, including hotel staff and taxi drivers. On top of those losses, companies operating from Norway to the Netherlands have also announced staff cuts.

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The estimates demonstrate how much oil companies have tightened their belts in order to weather the collapse in crude prices and the effect of the downturn on the wider economy. Brent, the global benchmark, has tumbled from as high as $115 a barrel two years ago to about $52 a barrel now.

The industry has been spending beyond its means, and has no choice but to improve its performance, Deirdre Michie, chief executive officer of Oil & Gas U.K., said in June.

BP Plc said in January it would cut North Sea jobs by 600 over the next two years, while Royal Dutch Shell Plc said on May 25 it was planning 475 job cuts in its U.K. and Ireland exploration and production business, mostly this year.

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NewBase 10 October 2016 Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

Oil prices fall over doubts that non-OPEC producers will cut output Reuters + NewBase

Oil prices fell on Monday over doubts that an OPEC-led plan to cut output would rein in a global oversupply that has dogged markets for over two years. Brent crude futures LCOc1 were trading at $51.46 per barrel at 0106 GMT, down 0.47 cents or 0.91 percent, from their last settlement. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures CLc1 were down 49 cents or 0.98 percent, at $49.32 a barrel.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plans to agree on an output cut by the time it meets in late November. The targeted range is to cut production to a range of 32.50 million barrels per day (bpd) to 33.0 million bpd. OPEC's current output PRODN-TOTAL stands at a record 33.6 million bpd. To achieve such an agreement among its members, some of which like Saudi Arabia and Iran are political rivals, OPEC officials are embarking on a flurry of meetings in the next six weeks, starting in Istanbul this week. OPEC officially meets on November 30. Traders said prices were also under pressure from a rise in the U.S. rig count, which implies that American producers are keen to increase production at prices around $50 per barrel. "Since its trough on May 27, 2016, producers have added 112 (+35 percent) oil rigs in the U.S.," U.S. bank Goldman Sachs said.

Oil price special

coverage

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Oil Bulls Leap Into Market as OPEC Supply-Cut Accord Spurs Rally Mark Shenk ShenkMark

OPEC’s first deal to cut output in eight years has spurred a running of the oil bulls.

Prices surged, breaching $50 a barrel, since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to the cut on Sept. 28 in Algiers. The group, which pumped at a record in September, will decide on quotas for it’s members at an official meeting in Vienna on Nov. 30. Futures also got a boost from a five-week long stretch of falling U.S. crude stockpiles.

"The market went haywire in the week and a half after the OPEC agreement," said Stephen Schork, president of the Schork Group Inc., a consulting company in Villanova, Pennsylvania. "The bulls were ready and really jumped in. Since OPEC, there’s been a tick, tick, tick higher."

Money managers increased long positions in West Texas Intermediate crude futures and options to the highest level in more than two years during the week ended Oct. 4, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Bets on falling prices dropped for a second week.

WTI futures increased 9 percent to $48.69 a barrel in the report week. Crude closed above $50 on Oct. 6 for the first time since June 9. Prices slipped 1.3 percent to close at $49.81 on Oct. 7.

Unanswered Questions

"This is the post-OPEC wave," said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund that focuses on energy. "This market has rewarded the OPEC rhetoric. Let’s see if their deeds match their words."

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The OPEC deal, which would trim output to a range of 32.5 million to 33 million barrels a day, is due to be finalized at the Vienna summit next month. While OPEC will decide on quotas for individual members, there may also be exemptions for nations including Iran, which is increasing production after the lifting of international sanctions in January.

"They left certain unanswered questions," said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York. "We’ll have to see if they formulate targets at the Nov. 30 meeting in Vienna and then have to wait to see what’s the ultimate rate of compliance. This is a story that will continue well into the first quarter of next year."

U.S. crude stockpiles dropped by 2.98 million barrels to 499.7 million in the week ended Sept. 30, the lowest since January, Energy Information Administration data show. Inventories reached 543.4 million barrels in the week ended April 29, the highest since 1929.

Money managers’ long position in WTI, or bets on rising prices, climbed to 353,162 futures and options. Shorts fell 30 percent. The resulting net-long position increased 40 percent to the highest level since May 2015.

In other markets, net-bullish bets on gasoline rose 33 percent to 30,737 contracts, the highest since March, as futures increased 7.6 percent in the report week. Wagers on ultra low sulfur diesel went from net short to net long. Futures climbed 10 percent.

The fundamentals don’t support prices at this level, according to Schork. OPEC has yet to agree on specific cuts and U.S. crude stockpiles remain at the highest seasonal level in more than 20 years.

"There’s been a lot of hype about the agreement although we won’t see any cut until next year," Schork said. "Momentum is in the bulls’ favor. There comes a point when you have to stop beating your head against the wall and my head is sore."

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NewBase Special Coverage

News Agencies News Release 10 October 2016

How will we power the planet in 2050? Anmar Frangoul | Special to CNBC.com

The world's energy mix is changing – and fast. A recent report from the World Energy Council found that renewable sources of power now represent around 30 percent of the world's total capacity and 23 percent of total global electricity production.

The WEC added that in the last 10 years, wind and solar power had seen "explosive average annual growth" of 23 percent and 50 percent.

Fossil fuels remain key to powering the planet, however, and as concerns over climate change and energy security mount, the question of what our planet's energy mix will look like in 2050 is becoming increasingly pressing.

Here, CNBC speaks to energy experts about what the planet's energy mix might look like in 2050.

There does appear to be an appetite for a change, evidenced by last year's historic agreement at the COP21 summit in Paris. There, world leaders agreed to make sure global warming stayed "well below" 2 degrees Celsius and to "pursue efforts" to limit the temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

"If the world is serious about tackling climate change, the world's energy mix in 2050 will have to look fundamentally different from the one we have today," Gunnar Luderer, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), told CNBC via email.

"Limiting global warming to well below 2°C, as agreed by the international community at the climate summit in Paris last year, requires close to carbon-free electricity supply and a drastic reduction of fossil fuel use in the industry, transportation and buildings sectors," Luderer added.

Bearing all of the above in mind, solar looks set to have a very big role to play in the world's energy mix. In 2014, the International Energy Agency stated that the sun could be the planet's biggest source of electricity by 2050.

"With the emergence of renewable energy technologies as the top sources of new power for the United States, we've entered a new paradigm that's here to stay," Tom Kimbis, interim president

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of the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), told CNBC via email. "Solar is at the heart of this revolution," he added.

"Innovative, high-tech and inexpensive, solar is a disruptive force whose growth (has) been highly unsettling (to) entrenched energy producers. It's not a question of if solar will power our economy -- nor a question of when -- but how quickly."

Other renewables are also pushing hard for a bigger slice of the energy pie. Wind energy is one such source. According to WindEurope, the offshore wind industry in Europe saw 14 billion euros ($15.67 billion) in new investments in the first six months of 2016.

"With the great leaps that wind energy has made in cost reduction in recent years, there is no reason why it should not be the centerpiece of energy systems around the world, particularly Europe," Oliver Joy, spokesperson for WindEurope, told CNBC via email. "Wind keeps getting cheaper," Joy added.

"Costs for onshore wind are expected to fall by 41 percent by 2040 as larger turbines with higher energy capture make the economics even more attractive. Offshore wind is also rapidly moving down the cost curve."

Joy went on to add that wind energy was able to meet 12 percent of Europe's electricity demand, with WindEurope seeing that figure rising to 28 percent of demand by 2030, provided the right policy decisions were made.

For the PIK's Gunnar Lederer, "the resource potential for solar and wind is vast."

End of the road for fossil fuels?

While agreements such as the one made at COP21 signal willing among the majority of the planet's governments to enact change, the question of whether fossil fuels have any kind of role to play in the future remains.

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For its part, SEIA is positive about the ability of solar to become a dominant force not just in the years to come, but now.

"In the last decade, solar has grown an average of 65 percent per year in the U.S. and its share of our nation's electricity mix is set to quadruple in the next five years while costs continue to plummet," the SEIA's Kimbis said.

"By 2020, we will have tripled our solar electricity capacity to 100 gigawatts, enough to power more than 20 million homes," he added.

"As for global implications, if we are to have a realistic hope of tackling the world's catastrophic global warming dilemma, rapid deployment of zero-carbon solar across the globe must start now," Kimbis went on to explain. Hurdles remain, however, if a fossil fuel-free world is to become a reality.

"The greatest challenge will be to eliminate fossils from activities such as aviation, freight and long-range transportation, as well as certain industrial processes - sectors that we refer to as 'decarbonization bottle-necks'," Luderer said.

"An important topic of current research is to what extent hydrogen, sustainably grown biomass or renewables-based synthetic fuels can substitute for fossil fuels," he added. Authorities also needed to start planning for the future right away, according to Wind Europe's Joy. "For the future, policymakers need to start thinking about repowering," he said.

"Up to 76 GW of Europe's onshore and offshore wind energy capacity will come to the end of their operational life between 2020 and 2030," he added.

"Replacing old, first and second generation turbines with state of the art units will mean higher energy capture at existing sites to make the most of the wind resource. It will also benefit energy security as repowered projects can contribute to power system stability and balancing."

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Electric car revolution brightens outlook for a medley of metals Reuters + NewBase

Electric cars such as the Nissan Leaf may look no different from the standard family runaround. But the new materials that go into them could revolutionise the market for metals used in the industry, opening up a new field for commodities investors.

“We identified electric vehicles as an area where we are at an inflection point for demand,” said Duncan Goodwin, Portfolio Manager of the Baring Global Resources Fund. Around 12 per cent of the fund’s $378.2 million in assets is exposed to materials that are used in electric vehicles.

It has investments in New York-listed Albemarle and Australia’s Orocobre, two companies producing lithium, a key element in electric car batteries. Shares in both companies have risen sharply this year.

Governments, keen to push growth in electric cars in a bid to meet their carbon emissions targets, are tempting consumers with perks like subsidies, free parking and tax breaks.

Growth in the market is in turn creating an opportunity for commodities investments currently estimated at $235 billion.

But it is not a simple one-way bet.

797594Predicting how much of any metal will be needed to meet demand for electric vehicles in the longer-term is tough and advances in battery technology could alter the mixture.

Getting drivers to adopt electric cars remains a challenge — the need to charge them up frequently and time taken to do so have put off many potential buyers. Still, concerns over the pollution created by diesel-powered vehicles mean that electric car prototypes dominated the Paris car show last week.

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The number of electric and hybrid vehicles on the road worldwide surpassed 1 million last year, according to the International Energy Agency. While estimates vary, IHS Automotive expects electric vehicles to represent nearly 4 per cent of all light vehicles worldwide by 2020, equivalent to 3.9 million cars, up from just over 14,000 in 2010.

So what sits below the bonnet in these vehicles?

Most electric car batteries use lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) cathodes and graphite anodes. “Rare earth” metals dysprosium, neodymium and terbium, chiefly mined in China by companies including Xiamen Tungsten and China Minmetals Rare Earth Co, are used in some electronic components of the motor.

“It’s clear that electric cars from today’s point of view will have lithium ion-based batteries,” said Horst Friedrich, director of Germany’s Institute of Vehicle Concepts. “We’re talking about lithium, and… metals like cobalt, iron phosphate, rare earth elements.”

LITHIUM TRIANGLE

Much of the world’s lithium comes from an area called the “Lithium triangle” in Chile, Argentina and Bolivia. Mining it is an increasingly lucrative business.

Prices of battery grade lithium in China, the biggest lithium ion battery producer, surged to above $20,000 a tonne this summer, nearly three times higher than a year earlier, as demand grew.

“The lithium industry is going from 160,000 tonnes of LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent) today to at least 260,000 tonnes by 2020,” said Simon Moores, managing director of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.

Albemarle is investing an undisclosed sum to boost its production of battery-grade lithium

salts to try to supply half of that projected demand growth, said John Mitchell, the president of Albemarle’s lithium unit.

Australia’s Lithium Power International is preparing its Maricunga Salar project in northern Chile to be able to ship lithium directly to China for use in electric vehicles, and aims to be in production by 2019-2020.

Australian rival Orocobre, whose share price has risen by more than 50 per cent this year, has nearly completed a scoping study with the aim of at least doubling production capacity over the next two years at a facility in Argentina.

Among South American companies, Chile’s SQM announced this month that it was investing $30 million to boost its lithium hydroxide capacity by 7,500 tonnes.

“The market penetration of electric vehicles in the automotive market will have a significant impact on lithium demand,” it said.

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“BUYER BEWARE”

Nissan-leaf-electric Critics caution against expecting shortages of lithium as there is an abundance of it in the earth’s crust. Others warn against jumping too quickly into smaller companies that may not produce the high grade lithium needed for the batteries.

“It’s very much buyer beware, it’s a fast-moving market, and there is a large degree of ignorance about it,” Finntech analyst Martin Potts said, adding that graphite could be more interesting for investors.

China dominates the sector for graphite, used in anodes.

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence expects 150,000-170,000 tonnes of extra anode grade graphite will be needed by 2020, worth an extra $1.125-1.275 billion.

Canada’s Eagle Graphite said while the impact of electric vehicles on its business is still to be felt, when global production hits around 1 million cars per year, the draw on graphite supplies will become significant.

“The more forward-looking manufacturers are rightly becoming concerned about long term supply,” its CEO Jamie Deith said. “Not only is there the question of producing enough graphite, but the fact that China accounts for 100 per cent of natural graphite anodes today is an additional concern.”

“The battery industry has to diversify sources.”

Meanwhile cobalt prices , up 16 per cent this year, are expected to rise another 45 per cent by 2020. The US Defence Logistics Agency starting to stockpile cobalt compounds highlights their importance.

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Sherritt International, one of the largest cobalt producers, said it is set to increase cobalt production at its Ambatovy mine in Madagascar in line with nickel output.

As cobalt is mined largely as a by-product of other metals such as nickel and copper, it is hard for producers to crank up output in response to higher demand, it said. That lack of supply elasticity could push prices higher. Not all metals used in car batteries have a rosy future.

Demand for manganese, a common component in steel, is expected to remain weak in the near term as the steel sector suffers.

“NICE DRIVE”

Predicting how much of any given metal would be needed to meet demand for electric vehicles in the longer-term is tough and advances in battery technology could alter the amounts.

Metals such as nickel, cobalt and manganese may not be needed in batteries such as the lithium sulphur battery being developed by Oxis Energy, based in the English city of Oxford.

Also in the background are green vehicle technologies, most notably hydrogen fuel cells, being mooted as possible rivals to batteries.

But developing new technology to the point where it can be commercialised takes time. “We consider the risk of substitution of lithium to be very low,” said CRU Group’s Julia Ralph.

Guiding the silent, top-of-the-range Leaf around a showroom complex at Nissan London West, salesman Keith Almansury says education is the key to driving growth in the segment.

“If people don’t love electric cars, it’s because they don’t know about electric cars,” he said, flagging up benefits including environmental friendliness, savings on fuel and servicing, and free parking. “But above all, it’s just a really nice drive.”

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Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 26 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great

experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

NewBase 10 October 2016 K. Al Awadi

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