new base 773 special 26 january 2016

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Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase 26 January 2016 - Issue No. 773 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Saudi Aramco: IPO not driven by need for cash & no cut in O&G invistments Saudi Gazette + Reuters + Gulf News Saudi Aramco Chairman Khalid Al-Falih said on Monday that plans for a possible initial public offering are not being driven by a need for cash amid a global slump in oil prices, but instead signal a desire for greater openness to outside investors. Speaking at the Global Competitiveness Forum, he said the potential listing of the world’s largest oil producer “is not for cash” but a “sign of the times” that the Kingdom is open for business. “If we do it, the percentage will not be such that it’s going to move the needle significantly in terms of the government proceeds,” Al-Falih said, a reference to the potential listing. He said that despite oil prices recently dipping below $30 a barrel, Aramco’s investments in oil and gas have not slowed down. Minister of Health and Saudi Aramco Chairman Khalid Al-Falih and Minister of Commerce and Industry Tawfiq Al-Rabeeah speak at a session on “Competitive Sectors: What sectors will drive growth and innovation into the future?” at the Global Competitiveness Forum in Riyadh on Monday. US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Joseph W. Westphal and President and CEO of US Council on Competitiveness who is also President of Global Federation of Competitiveness Councils Deborah L. Wince-Smith also spoke at the session moderated by Stephen Sackur, broadcast journalist. SPA

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Page 1: New base 773 special 26 january 2016

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1

NewBase 26 January 2016 - Issue No. 773 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE

Saudi Aramco: IPO not driven by need for cash & no cut in O&G invistments

Saudi Gazette + Reuters + Gulf News

Saudi Aramco Chairman Khalid Al-Falih said on Monday that plans for a possible initial public offering are not being driven by a need for cash amid a global slump in oil prices, but instead signal a desire for greater openness to outside investors.

Speaking at the Global Competitiveness Forum, he said the potential listing of the world’s largest oil producer “is not for cash” but a “sign of the times” that the Kingdom is open for business.

“If we do it, the percentage will not be such that it’s going to move the needle significantly in terms of the government proceeds,” Al-Falih said, a reference to the potential listing. He said that despite oil prices recently dipping below $30 a barrel, Aramco’s investments in oil and gas have not slowed down.

Minister of Health and Saudi Aramco Chairman Khalid Al-Falih and Minister of Commerce and Industry Tawfiq

Al-Rabeeah speak at a session on “Competitive Sectors: What sectors will drive growth and innovation into the

future?” at the Global Competitiveness Forum in Riyadh on Monday. US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Joseph

W. Westphal and President and CEO of US Council on Competitiveness who is also President of Global

Federation of Competitiveness Councils Deborah L. Wince-Smith also spoke at the session moderated by

Stephen Sackur, broadcast journalist. — SPA

Page 2: New base 773 special 26 january 2016

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2

“Fiscal discipline becomes number one” in such an environment, he said. He said the firm has been able to make a lot of cuts “by simply driving down costs,” but investment has continued. Talking to reporters on the sidelines of the forum, he said excessively high oil prices “precipitated” the current slump since “everybody wanted to contribute to supply more than the demand that was coming in.”

He said Saudi Arabia has the scale and capability to sustain the current slump in prices for “a long, long time” but that “obviously, we don’t wish for lower prices.”

“The fact that the crown jewel of the Kingdom … the company that has been generating the predominant income to the treasury of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is being considered to be taken to the stock market, I think is a sign of the confidence the Kingdom has in its enterprises,” Al-Falih said.

Unlike others who store crude on ships while they look for buyers, “Saudi Aramco and therefore Saudi Arabia does not ship a single barrel without a customer… Our supply is tightly, tightly linked to end-user demand,” he said.

Falih said there are two possible options for a stock market listing of Saudi Aramco, which sits on crude reserves of 261.1 billion barrels. “One is to bundle together a significant downstream portfolio” such as its chemicals and marketing operations.

Another, being considered for the first time in Saudi Arabia, is to possibly list a percentage of “everything we do,” Falih told the forum, organized by the Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority.

Saudi Aramco chief says not cutting oil and gas investment

A sale of a stake in the whole company would involve issues related to law and sovereignty that would need to be resolved . National oil giant Saudi Aramco is not reducing its new investment in oil and gas production capacity despite cost-cutting due to low oil prices, its chairman Khalid Al Falih said on Monday.

“Our investments in capacity of oil and gas have not slowed down — we have been able to do a lot of cuts in spending by simply driving down costs,” Al Falih told a panel discussion at a business conference.

Authorities have not yet decided whether the government’s planned sale of a stake in Saudi Aramco will involve only a stake in its downstream ventures, or a percentage of the whole company including its upstream oil and gas business, Al Falih said.

A sale of a stake in the whole company would involve issues related to law and sovereignty that would need to be resolved, he added. Al Falih said the percentage of Aramco’s business that would ultimately be offered would not “move the needle significantly” in terms of money raised for the government, but would instead aim to develop the local private sector.

The plunge of oil prices since June 2014 has pushed Saudi Arabia’s fiscal position into deficit and spurred the government to examine new ways of expanding its revenue base and diversifying its economy.

However, Riyadh’s strategy of defending its share of global crude sales requires it to continue to invest heavily to maintain its energy production capacity and position as the world’s top oil exporter.

Page 3: New base 773 special 26 january 2016

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3

Ghana: Tullow Oil's TEN Project FPSO en route to Ghana Source: Tullow Oil

FPSO Prof. John Evans Atta Mills, which will produce and store oil from Ghana’s Tweneboa-Enyenra-Ntomme (TEN) offshore oil fields, has begun its voyage to Ghana.

The floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel has been under construction in Singapore since October 2013. The departure of the vessel on schedule is an important milestone for the TEN Project which is now over 80% complete and remains on track to start producing oil in July or August 2016.

The vessel departed the Tuas shipyard in Singapore on Saturday 23 January and sailed into the Malacca Strait. Her voyage to Ghana will see her sail westward across the Indian Ocean before rounding the southern tip of Africa and sailing up the West African coast.

The FPSO is expected to arrive in Ghanaian waters in early March, where she will be stationed above the TEN fields, around 60 kilometres from the coast of Ghana’s Western Region. Upon her arrival, the FPSO will be attached to nine anchor piles which will maintain her position above the oil fields.

These 21 metre high steel cylinders were built in Ghana by Group Five Construction Ghana Ltd. They were completed on time and are already installed in the seabed, awaiting the arrival of the FPSO.

The FPSO has a nominal production capacity of 80,000 barrels of oil per day and a storage capacity of 1.7 million barrels. She is 350 metres long and can accommodate 120 people.

The FPSO was officially named by Her Excellency the First Lady of the Republic of Ghana, Dr. Nana Lordina Mahama at a ceremony in Singapore in September 2015. The vessel is named in memory of the late President Atta Mills who oversaw first oil from Ghana’s Jubilee Field in 2010.

The development of the TEN fields is being led by Tullow Oil along with its partners the Ghana National Petroleum Corp, Kosmos Energy, Anadarko Petroleum and Petro SA. The construction of the FPSO has been led by global supplier and operator of offshore floating platforms, MODEC Inc. The FPSO will be operated and maintained by MODEC Ghana Ltd.

Page 4: New base 773 special 26 january 2016

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4

Namibia: AziNam announces completion of 3D seismic survey on Guy Block, offshore Namibia . Source: Azinam

AziNam, the offshore Namibia focused exploration company, has completed a 3D seismic survey

on PEL 34, the Guy Block, offshore Namibia. The Survey is located in the Walvis Basin and was

conducted by PGS Geophysical. The Survey took just over three weeks to complete and covered

an area of approx. 870 km2.

The current working interest positions in the Guy Block, are as follows:AziNam 40% (Operator); Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas 50%; Namcor10%. AziNam Managing Director, David Sturt, commented:

'Completion of the 3D survey, announced today, is another step forward for the Company and its partners. The Survey is one of four surveys we have acquired within the last 12 months and remains in line with our strategy towards establishing AziNam as a leading Namibia-focused exploration company.

'As the Operator of the Guy Block, we remain committed to high quality data and have once again utilised world class technical analysis, provided with the PGS GeoStreamer system, which will enable us to identify and prove our block targets. We are delighted to continue working with our partners, Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas and Namcor, and make further progress in our exploration programme for 2016.

Page 5: New base 773 special 26 january 2016

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5

As Japan’s oil, gas, power use stalls, coal imports @ record Reuters + NewBase

Japan’s 2015 oil imports fell to the lowest since 1988, reflecting the country’s declining population and low economic growth while at the same time its natural gas imports fell for the first time since the Fukushima nuclear disaster.

Yet in the same year that the world agreed to combat climate change, Japan’s utilities continued to increase the use of the cheapest but dirtiest fossil fuel, ramping up coal imports to a record. Continuing a steady decline since the mid-1990s, Japan’s crude oil imports last year fell 2.3% to 3.37mn barrels per day (195.499mn kilolitres), official figures released yesterday showed.

Similarly, Japan’s power generation fell for a fifth straight year in 2015 to 866.26bn kilowatt hours, the lowest since at least 1998. The declines reflect deep changes in Japanese society since an asset bubble burst in the 1990s and its population declines and people change the way they consume energy.

Young Japanese drive less than their parents, and many new cars are electric-gasoline hybrids, cutting oil demand.

“The fall in consumption in Japan is mainly down to slower economic growth,” said Jeremy Wilcox, managing director of consultancy Energy Partnership. “At the same time, increased focus on energy efficiency is really starting to constrain imports,” he added.

Japan is also gradually closing down its oil-fired power stations.

“Japan’s energy market is entering a new phase.... Utilities are having to become more cost competitive. Running old steam turbine gas and oil units no longer makes sense,” said Michael Jones, senior analyst at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

Page 6: New base 773 special 26 january 2016

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6

Japan’s changing energy profile has hit LNG the hardest, of which it is the world’s biggest consumer, using it mainly for power generation and heating. LNG imports fell 3.9% to 85.046mn tonnes in 2015 from a record 88.51mn tonnes the year before, marking the first drop in six years and the lowest since 2011.

LNG usage should fall further as overall energy demand declines and the country reopens nuclear reactors. This will put further pressure on LNG prices that have already tumbled by two-thirds to under $6 per million British thermal units ( MMBTU) since 2014 as supplies soar from new exports from Australia and the US.

“LNG demand is getting hit from all sides,” Jones said. “Power demand is weak, solar capacity is increasing at breakneck speeds, nuclear capacity is returning, and coal-fired generation is rising.” As a result, LNG imports are expected to fall to a five-year low of 79.6mn tonnes in the year starting in April, according to the government-associated Institute of Energy Economics Japan.

Japan’s LNG imports surged following the meltdowns at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in 2011 and the ensuing shutdown of all reactors, pushing utilities to the brink of financial ruin as gas prices surged.

To save cash, Japan’s utilities are increasingly switching to cheap coal.

In 2000, Japan’s coal demand was only slightly bigger than LNG consumption, around 60mn tonnes a year versus some 55mn tonnes for LNG, but gas use has now stalled while coal imports have nearly doubled since then.

Thermal coal imports rose 4.8% to a record 114.145mn tonnes in 2015, the same year as the world reached a climate deal to combat global warming caused in large part by coal burning. “The rise in coal imports comes down to economics,” said Energy Partnership’s Wilcox.

“The figures are consistent with the government’s 2030 basic energy plan which aims to reduce LNG usage and maintain coal,” said Tom O’Sullivan of energy consultancy Mathyos Japan. “This would seem to contradict the aims of the COP21 (Paris) conference in December that sought to reduce global carbon emissions.”

Japan Coal fired Power plants ( clean )

Page 7: New base 773 special 26 january 2016

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7

US: California gas leak spotlights shoddy regulation of ageing storage wells,, Oman Observer

Long before a natural gas storage well sprung a disastrous leak near Los Angeles, California, utilities and national industry groups were raising alarms about the danger of ageing underground storage infrastructure.

The leaking well’s owner, Southern California Gas Co, warned state utility regulators in 2014 of “major failures” without a rate hike to pay for comprehensive inspections of 229 storage wells. Twenty-six of its wells were “high risk” and should be abandoned — even though they complied with state regulations, the utility wrote in a rate filing.

The previous year, Pacific Gas & Electric pointed to an absence of safety standards for storage wells as reason to launch its own monitoring programme that went beyond state rules, according to an internal document obtained by Reuters.

The industry’s rising concern underscores the scant oversight of 400 underground natural gas storage facilities in 30 US states. Most storage fields are regulated by states, but national industry groups have pushed for federal oversight — unusual in an industry better known for fighting regulation.

Jurisdiction over facilities storing gas to be transported across state lines falls to the US Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. But the agency has never written rules for gas storage despite two decades of sporadic calls for regulation — and at least two deadly explosions.

“We agree that federal regulations would improve safety in this area and are working through our options to develop regulations,” agency spokeswoman Artealia Gilliard said.

Under state oil and gas regulations, Southern California Gas faces a maximum penalty of $25,000 for the leak near Los Angeles, which is unprecedented in scale. The well has spewed methane —

Page 8: New base 773 special 26 january 2016

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8

a potent greenhouse gas — since October and displaced thousands of people in nearby Porter Ranch.

A bill introduced on Tuesday by State Senator Fran Pavley calls for penalties of up to $25,000 per day for active leaks. It would also require the installation of automatic shutoff systems on all wells and continuous monitoring of wells within 10,000 feet of homes and schools.

Utilities and regulators have been “gambling” with wells that in many cases were drilled in the 1950s, Pavley said. She described their standard practice as, “Don’t fix it until it leaks or cracks or breaks.”

METHANE CLOUD: Southern California Gas, a division Sempra Energy, said it has inspected wells more rigorously since 2014, even though state utility officials have not approved a rate hike to cover the cost, said company spokeswoman Kristine Lloyd. The inspections, she said, “exceed traditional industry practices and regulatory requirements.”

Lloyd said she did not know if the leaking well in Aliso Canyon was among the 26 wells the company said should be abandoned because they are too old or “mechanically unsound,” as the rate filing described them.

A month before the well failed, the nation’s leading oil and gas lobbying group, the American Petroleum Institute, published 60 pages of guidelines for monitoring and maintenance of storage wells. Other industry groups have supported having the API standards adopted as federal regulation.

It’s telling that the industry is inviting more oversight, said Tim O’Connor, Director of California oil and gas programmes for the Environmental Defence Fund. “Up and down, the general consensus is that the regulations that exist in California are wholly insufficient.”

The fracking boom has intensified pressure on the nation’s ageing system of underground storage. About 20 per cent of gas used in the US during winter now comes from storage fields, according to the American Gas Association.

Many of the facilities are depleted oil or gas reservoirs that have been converted to store natural gas, which is then pulled from the ground by wells.

The Aliso Canyon leak increased the state’s methane emissions by 25 per cent in its first month, estimated the California Air Resources Board. Methane is 72 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide in the 20 years after it is emitted, according to CARB.

Initial efforts to plug the well with mud and brine failed. The utility is now drilling two relief wells more than 8,500 feet below the surface and planning to pump in water and cement. The utility said on Monday that it expects to stop the leak by late February.

In its 2014 rate filing, the utility sought $180 million in rate increases over six years to evaluate its storage wells. The California Public Utility Commission has made no decision in the rate case. The CPUC also has not decided on a request from PG&E for more than $1 billion in rate increases to finance maintenance of its gas pipeline and storage infrastructure.

Page 9: New base 773 special 26 january 2016

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9

Page 10: New base 773 special 26 january 2016

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10

NewBase 26 January 2016 Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

Oil extends slide to retest $30 as Iraq pumps more crude Reuters - Jean-Paul Pelissier + NewBase

Crude futures extended falls on Tuesday to retest the $30 a barrel level, as the market was spooked by news that Iraq's output hit a record high and after Saudi Arabia pledged to maintain energy investment.

Global benchmark Brent crude lost 37 cents to $30.13 a barrel by 0129 GMT after hitting a session low of $30. It settled down $1.68 at $30.50 in the previous session, 5.2 percent below its closing price on Friday.

U.S. crude fell 43 cents to $29.91 a barrel, after hitting a session low at $29.61. It ended $1.85, or 5.8 percent, lower at $30.34 a day earlier.

"Technical short-covering and a cold spell in the United States and some parts of the northern hemisphere had helped prices rally temporarily, most of which was wiped out if you look at yesterday's prices," said Kang Yoo-jin, a commodities analyst at NH Investment and Securities based in Seoul. "Psychological factors have driven the severe volatility in the market," added Kang, who said the situation was likely to persist until concerns over oversupply were lifted.

Oil price special

coverage

Page 11: New base 773 special 26 january 2016

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11

Iraq's oil production hit a record in December, as output increased from the central and southern fields, an oil ministry spokesman said on Monday.

Meanwhile, Iraq may raise output further this year, reaching levels as high as 4 million barrels per day (bpd) from the country's south, a senior Iraqi oil official said.

At the same time, national oil giant Saudi Aramco is continuing to invest in oil and gas production capacity despite cost-cutting due to low oil prices, its chairman said on Monday.

Kang said the market would also be looking at exact oil volumes supplied by Iran and the United States, as well as any shifts in other OPEC members over output.

Senior OPEC and Russian oil industry officials stepped up vague talk on Monday of possible joint action to remedy one of the worst supply gluts in decades, while Saudi Arabia signalled its resolve to allow the market to balance itself.

In the United States, commercial crude and gasoline inventories probably rose last week, while distillate stocks likely fell, a preliminary Reuters survey showed. Asian shares look set to retreat as fears of a global economic slowdown show no sign of abating.

Investors are closely watching the U.S. Fed policymakers meetings on Tuesday and Wednesday for the first time since raising interest rates in December. While no move is expected, they will parse their statement to see how recent events have influenced its outlook.

Page 12: New base 773 special 26 january 2016

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12

NewBase Special Coverage

News Agencies News Release 26 January 2016

George Soros, billionaire and founder of Soros Fund Management, gestures as he speaks during an interview at the World

Economic Forum in Davos. Matthew Lloyd / Bloomberg

Davos opinions deeply divided on oil price The National - Ivan Fallon

At the end of the Davos Economic Forum last week, the BBC’s economics editor, Kamal Ahmed, asked some of leading oil experts to forecast what the price would be this time next year.

“Mid-40s,” said Bob Dudley, chief executive of BP, confidently. “$20 a barrel,” said another chairman. “Mid-30s,” opined a third, while another reckoned it would be about where it is now – in the $30 range. Then a growly voice spoiled the party: “There’s no reason it shouldn’t drop below $10 and maybe even $5.”

That’s an extraordinary range. At the lowest end, it would mean a collapse of over 96 per cent from the peak, unheard of territory for a major commodity, even in the 1930s. And it would spell disaster for a world economy still trying to recover from the last crisis.

The meeting had already been dominated by one of the gloomiest weeks in the markets – only partially relieved by a recovery on Friday after the European Central bank indicated it would supply an extra stimulus – since 2008, when they

went into meltdown.

The unknown consequences of what is happening in China, and the growing possibility of Britain’s exit (Brexit) from the European Union, unnerved the 2,500 powerful businessmen, politicians and commentators who had gathered at the resort, but oil was probably the most persistent talking point. Just to emphasise its impact, the price hit $27 per barrel during the conference, its lowest level since 2003, sending another shiver through markets worldwide.

The oil analyst who attracted a lot of attention at Davos was the CNN business journalist John Defterios, whose opinion holds a lot of weight in these circles. Based in Abu Dhabi, Mr Defterios has been accurately calling the price of oil for some years and he chaired an influential panel called the New Energy Equation, which included the chairman of Saudi Aramco, Nigeria’s energy minister and representatives from Azerbaijan and Russia.

There was some healthy disagreement among the panelists on where the price was going, but the consensus view was that it is currently well into oversold territory and that the marginal price has to be above $30 for the stability of the world’s economy. The supply issue is not going away in

George Soros, billionaire and founder of Soros

Fund Management, gestures as he speaks during

an interview at the World Economic Forum in

Davos.

Page 13: New base 773 special 26 january 2016

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13

a hurry. The world is producing 1.5 million barrels per day more than it is consuming, and that will get worse when Iran cranks up its production.

“The market underestimates Iran’s capabilities,” said Mr Defterios, adding that on a recent visit to the country he had been told by the authorities that they could add another million barrels per day so the oversupply would be 2.5 million bpd. On the whole, however, his panellists were for oil somewhat higher than it is now.

Throughout the conference there was endless discussion about the global supply/demand situation, the Saudi strategy, splits in Opec and the price at which US shale oil, which is becoming the real swing producer, becomes uneconomic.

“A good, efficient shale producer will survive,” predicted Mr Defterios, but half of them won’t because their costs are $50 to $60 a barrel. Saudi Arabia, by contrast, produces at $2 to $4 a barrel and Abu Dhabi is even lower, the lowest in the world.

Middle Eastern producers, with running costs of between $2 and $10 a barrel, can keep going a long time at $30-barrel oil, particularly if they cut their budgets as Abu Dhabi has done. Before this crisis is done, Mr Defterios believes the Middle East will increase its share of world production from 35 per cent to more than 50 per cent.

Theoretically cheap oil should be good for the world’s economy, but not this time. The Economist, under the headline Who’s afraid of cheap oil?, concludes that maybe we all should be. “Cheaper fuel should stimulate economic growth,” it says. “The benefits to consuming nations typically outweigh the costs to producing ones.”

But so far in 2016 the 17 per cent lurch downwards in the oil price “has coincided with turmoil in global markets”. The magazine continues: “It is as if the markets are challenging long-held assumptions about the economic benefits of low energy prices.” The world, it concludes, “could yet be laid low by an oil monster on the prowl”.

No Davos meeting would be complete without a headline-grabbing contribution from George Soros, and this year he was in fine form. The veteran hedge fund manager is one of the true oracles of these annual meetings and when he speaks, the markets take notice.

In what one commentator described as a “blood-curdling interview”, Mr Soros said he thought that the low oil price is having the reverse impact to the orthodox one, and far from accelerating an anaemic recovery, is actually dragging it back.

Mr Soros repeated his view that the world economy is in a similar situation to 2008, when it plunged into its worst post-war recession, with the difference that today the root cause is not American sub-prime mortgages but China. In Mr Soros’s considered view, a “hard landing” for the Chinese economy is “practically unavoidable” and, together with the oil price collapse, means a fresh bout of world deflation.

That is far too pessimistic for me – and for most of the 2,500 delegates. Mr Defterios and others believe oil may have bottomed during Davos. “I think you could see $50 by the end of the year,” he concluded. We can only hope he knows something Mr Soros doesn’t.

Ivan Fallon is a former business editor of The Sunday Times and the authorof Black Horse Ride: The Inside Story of Lloyds and the Financial Crisis.

Page 14: New base 773 special 26 january 2016

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14

ExxonMobil’s Energy Outlook projects energy demand increase and decline in carbon intensity .. Source: ExxonMobil

• Global energy demand expected to increase 25 percent between 2014-2040, driven by population and economic growth

• Carbon intensity of the global economy to fall by half due to significant energy efficiency gains and a gradual transition to less carbon-intensive energy types

Global energy demand will increase 25 percent between 2014 and 2040, driven by population growth and economic expansion, ExxonMobil said today in the 2016 edition of The Outlook for Energy. At the same time, energy efficiency gains and increased use of renewable energy sources and lower carbon fuels, such as natural gas, are expected to help reduce by half the carbon intensity of the global economy.

During the period, the world’s population will increase by about 2 billion people and emerging economies will continue to expand significantly. Most growth in energy demand will occur in developing nations that are not part of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Per capita income in those countries is likely to increase by 135 percent.

Natural gas is expected to meet about 40 percent of the growth in global energy needs and demand for the fuel will increase by 50 percent. Nuclear and renewable energy sources – including bio-energy, hydro, geothermal, wind, and solar – are also likely to account for nearly 40 percent of the growth in global energy demand by 2040. By then, they are expected to make up nearly 25 percent of supplies of which nuclear alone represents about one third.

'ExxonMobil’s analysis and those of independent agencies confirms our long-standing view that all viable energy sources will be needed to meet

increasing demand,' said Rex W. Tillerson, chairman and chief executive officer of Exxon Mobil Corporation. 'The Outlook for Energy is a useful resource to help understand future energy supply and demand, which can aid decisions by individuals, businesses and governments that together will affect the future of energy.'

The outlook projects that global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will peak around 2030 and then start to decline. Emissions in OECD nations are projected to fall by about 20 percent from 2014 to 2040.

The Outlook for Energy is ExxonMobil’s long-range forecast developed by its economists, engineers and scientists through data-driven analysis. It examines energy supply and demand trends for approx. 100 countries, 15 demand sectors and 20 different energy types.

'Our forecast is used as a foundation for the company’s business strategies and to help guide multi-billion dollar investment decisions,' said William Colton, vice president of ExxonMobil

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Corporate Strategic Planning, which develops The Outlook for Energy. 'For many years the outlook has taken into account policies established to reduce energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. The climate accord reached at the recent COP 21 conference in Paris set many new goals, and while many related policies are still emerging, the outlook continues to anticipate that such policies will increase the cost of carbon dioxide emissions over time.'

Key findings of the report include: • In 2040, oil and natural gas are expected to make up nearly 60 percent of global supplies,

while nuclear and renewables will be approaching 25 percent. Oil will provide one third of the world’s energy in 2040, remaining the No. 1 source of fuel, and natural gas will move into second place.

• North America, which for decades had been an oil importer, is on pace to become a net exporter around 2020.

• India will surpass China as the world’s most populous nation, with 1.6 billion people. The two countries are expected to account for almost half of the growth in global energy demand.

• Global demand for electricity is expected to increase by 65 percent, and 85 percent of the increase is in non-OECD nations.

• The share of the world’s electricity generated by coal is expected to fall to about 30 percent in 2040 from approximately 40 percent in 2014.

• Global energy demand from transportation is projected to rise by about 30 percent, and practically all the growth will be in non-OECD countries.

• Sales of new hybrids are expected to jump from about 2 percent of new-car sales in 2014 to more than 40 percent by 2040, when one in four cars in the world will be a hybrid. Average fuel economy will rise from 25 to about 45 miles per gallon.

• Already the world’s largest oil-importing region, Asia Pacific’s net imports are projected to rise by more than 50 percent by 2040 as domestic production remains steady and demand increases.

Page 16: New base 773 special 26 january 2016

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NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE

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Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010

Mobile: +97150-4822502 [email protected] [email protected]

Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &

regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.

NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

NewBase 26 January 2016 K. Al Awadi

Page 17: New base 773 special 26 january 2016

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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17