new base 728 special 15 november 2015

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NewBase 15 November 2015 - Issue No. 728 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE

UAE: DEWA’s Shams Dubai initiative to generate long-lasting renewable energy

(WAM) -- Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) has a well-defined strategy, and an ambitious vision, to support the development and establishment of sustainable energy projects in Dubai, under the leadership of Vice President and Prime Minister and Ruler of Dubai His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, and is committed to environmental sustainability and the happiness and welfare of its citizens, residents and visitors , to provide an ideal environment for living, working, and visiting.

The Dubai Plan 2021 aims to make Dubai a smart, integrated, and connected city that uses its resources sustainably, whose environmental elements are clean, healthy, and sustainable. The Dubai Integrated Energy Strategy 2030, launched by the Dubai Supreme Council of Energy, diversifies Dubai’s energy mix and reduces energy demand in the Emirate by 30% by 2030.

DEWA has increased the targets for renewable energy to 7% of Dubai’s total power output by 2020 and 15% by 2030. DEWA is doing this to support the Green Economy for Sustainable Development long-term National initiative launched by His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, to build a green economy in the UAE. It also supports the UAE Vision 2021 to make the UAE among the best countries in the world by 2021.

DEWA’s vision is to ensure the Emirate’s continuous growth and, at the same time, protect its natural resources and shape the future of energy in the region as a whole, to achieve the sustainable development and promote the welfare of citizens, residents, and visitors, and ensure a sustainable future for generations to come.

According to Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer, MD & CEO of DEWA, DEWA will invest AED 60 billion in Dubai’s energy and water sector over the next five years to meet increasing demand. This will provide considerable investment opportunities, support the growth of a green economy and create a competitive advantage for the UAE in clean energy and energy-efficiency technologies.




DEWA has also allocated over AED 2.6 billion to support electricity, water and renewable energy infrastructure projects, according to the highest international standards. This will contribute to organising the best World Expo in 2020, in Dubai. DEWA will focus on renewable energy sources to support Dubai Expo’s theme of ‘Connecting Minds, Creating the Future’ and its three sub themes of sustainability, mobility, and opportunity.

Solar energy is connected to DEWA’s grid has two forms. The first is DEWA’s solar power plants such as the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park, which is managed by DEWA, is one of the largest renewable energy projects in the region, with a planned production capacity of 3,000MW by 2030. The second is electricity produced from medium and small solar energy systems. This is done by installing photovoltaic (PV) panels on rooftops of buildings and connected to DEWA’s grid as part of its Shams Dubai initiative.

Shams Dubai, DEWA’s rooftop solar energy initiative for buildings DEWA has launched Shams Dubai, as part of its efforts to support the Smart Dubai initiative launched by His Highness Sheikh Mohammed to transform Dubai into the smartest city in the world. Shams Dubai engages society in producing renewable energy and contributing to achieving Dubai Government’s objectives to diversify energy sources.

The initiative allows customers to install PV panels on their rooftops to generate electricity form solar power. The electricity is used on-site and the surplus is exported to DEWA’s network. An offset between exported and imported electricity units is conducted and the customer account is settled based on this offset.

To regulate electricity produced from PV panels to the power distribution system in Dubai, the Dubai Executive Council issued resolution number 46 for 2014 to put in place a comprehensive framework at a legislative level to connect electricity produced from solar power to the distribution system. The resolution defines DEWA’s responsibility to develop a policy for solar energy electricity production, and the adoption of binding agreement terms and models, and monitoring and supervising producers.




Mauritania: Kosmos Energy makes second major gas discovery Source: Kosmos Energy

Kosmos Energy has announced that the Marsouin-1 exploration well, located in the northern part of Block C-8 offshore Mauritania, has made a significant, play-extending gas discovery. This is the company’s second major discovery of 2015.

Based on preliminary analysis of drilling and wireline logging results, Marsouin-1 encountered at least 70 meters (230 feet) of net gas pay in Upper and Lower Cenomanian intervals comprised of excellent quality reservoir sands. Located approx. 60 kms north of the basin-opening Tortue-1 gas discovery (renamed Ahmeyim), Marsouin-1 was drilled in nearly 2,400 meters of water.




'Marsouin-1 is our second major discovery of 2015, extending our 100 percent success rate in the outboard Cretaceous petroleum system offshore Mauritania and Senegal. Well-to-seismic calibration has significantly de-risked the discovered resource base, as well as future prospects in the basin. Importantly, the well results have validated our charge model and given us growing confidence in our ability to predict the oil and gas potential of this emerging, large-scale petroleum system. We have a disciplined exploration and appraisal program planned to further unlock the basin,' said Andrew G. Inglis, chairman and chief executive officer.

The Atwood Achiever drillship will now proceed to the Ahmeyim-2 location in the southern part of Mauritania’s Block C-8 where it will drill the top-hole section of the well. The drillship is then expected to sail to Senegal where it will spud Guembeul-1, the first in a series of wells to delineate the Greater Tortue area, before year-end.

Since 2012, Kosmos has held rights to conduct exploration in the C-8, C-12, and C-13 contract areas under production sharing contracts with the Government of Mauritania’s Société Mauritanienne Des Hydrocarbures et de Patrimoine Minier (SMHPM). Kosmos operates the licenses with 60 percent equity and is joined by its partners Chevron Mauritania Exploration, a wholly owned subsidiary of Chevron at 30 percent, and SMHPM at 10 percent. The blocks are contiguous, range in water depth between 1,000 and 3,000 meters, and have combined acreage of approxi. 27,000 sq kms.




GCC petchem exports to China continue to increase Gulf Today + NewBase

The slowdown of the Chinese economy has not stopped GCC petrochemical producers to continue to grow their exports to China during 2014. Data from the Gulf Petrochemicals and Chemicals Association shows that GCC petrochemical exports rose to 13.5 million tons, valued at $15.4 billion. Volumes are up 5 per cent more compared to 2013, while revenues increased by 5 per cent.

65 per cent of the export volume consisted of basic, intermediate and chemicals exports; while polymers made up 33 per cent and fertilizers 1 per cent. Saudi Arabia is responsible for 64% of the export volume to China; valued at almost $10 billion. The UAE is the GCC’s second largest exporter to China, responsible for 11 per cent of the total volume; valued at almost $2 billion, followed by Kuwait, responsible for 10 per cent of total exports, valued at about $1.6 billion. “It is inevitable that GCC producers will feel the drag from Chinese slowing demand for petrochemical products,” says Dr. Abdulwahab Al-Sadoun, GPCA Secretary-General. “China’s self-sufficiency in some petrochemicals and polymers is also increasing. But despite these challenges, GCC exports have continued to perform well and in the long run, there will still be substantial room for petchem imports to China. By 2020, Chinese polypropylene (PP) production, for example, is expected to reach around 24 million tons against consumption in the region of 28 million tons.” At the 10th Annual GPCA Forum two presentations are dedicated to the importance of China in petrochemical markets:




Norway: October oil output down vs. 2014, but above prognosis The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate has revealed preliminary production figures for October 2015.

The figures show an average daily production of about 1 946 000 barrels of oil, NGL and condensate. This is 85 000 barrels per day (about 4.5 percent) more than September 2015. Total gas sales were about 10.8 billion Sm3, which is 1.5 GSm3 more than previous month.

The average daily liquid production in October was: 1 567 000 barrels of oil, 334 000 barrels of NGL and 44 000 barrels of condensate. The oil production is 0.5 percent below the oil production in October last year.

The oil production is about 2 percent above the NPD’s prognosis for the month.

The total petroleum production for the first ten months in 2015 is about 188.6 million Sm3 oil equivalents (MSm3 o.e.), broken down as follows: about 74.9 MSm3 o.e. of oil, about 18.2 MSm3 o.e. of NGL and condensate and about 95.5 MSm3 o.e. of gas for sale. The total volume is 10.3 MSm3 o.e. higher than for the same period in 2014.

Final production figures from September 2015 show an average daily production of about 1.539 million barrels of oil, 0.322 million barrels of NGL and condensate and a total of 9.3 billion Sm3 saleable gas production.




US: As total U.S. crude oil imports fall, Canada’s import supply

share rises Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Monthly

Although overall U.S. crude oil imports have been declining since 2005, crude oil imports from Canada have been increasing. As of August, Canada provided 45% of all crude oil imports to the United States, almost three times as much as all Persian Gulf countries combined.

The United States has been the primary destination for Canada's crude oil exports since the early 2000s. Based on data through the first half of this year from Canada's National Energy Board, 99% of Canada's crude oil exports were sent to the United States. More than half of these volumes went to petroleum refineries in the Midwest (Petroleum Administration for Defense District, PADD 2).

Import data from the U.S. Department of Commerce specify the nearest port of entry but not the mode of transit used to import this crude oil. Based on entry port data and pipeline locations, it is reasonable to expect that most of these imports came through pipeline systems such as Enbridge Mainline, Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain, Spectra Express, and TransCanada Keystone. A smaller portion, about 3%, was transported by rail.




Within the United States, the regional destination of crude oil sent by rail is different from other modes of shipping crude oil. While about 65% of Canadian crude oil imports by pipeline and other modes not including rail are shipped to refineries in the U.S. Midwest (PADD 2), imports from Canada by rail go primarily to Gulf Coast (PADD 3) and East Coast (PADD 1) refineries.

The United States first imported crude oil by rail from Canada in October 2010, with the first full year of shipments by rail totaling 2,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2011. Rail shipments continued to increase through 2014, when they reached 140,000 b/d, but they have decreased in 2015. Because transporting crude oil by rail is generally more expensive than transporting it by pipeline, rail is used only when appropriate cost differentials exist or where pipeline infrastructure is insufficient.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Monthly Note: Data for 2015 are through August.




NewBase 15 November - 2015 Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

WTI down 2.4%,40.7 a barrel and Brent 1% ,43.6 a barrel Reuters = NewBase

Oil fell over 2 percent on Friday, extending the week's loss to the largest in eight months, pressured by swelling storage of crude on both land and sea. Prices slipped slightly after Baker Hughes reported the number of oil rigs operating in the United States rose for the first time in 11 weeks.

The weekly count ticked up by 2 rigs to a total of 574, compared with 1,578 at this time last year.

U.S. crude traded slightly above $40 a barrel while benchmark Brent was less than $2 from setting new 6½-year lows. The slump widened to oil products with U.S. gasoline tumbling to 10-month lows.

Oil prices have fallen in seven of the last eight sessions, with losses accelerating after U.S. government data on Thursday affirmed a seventh weekly rise in U.S. crude inventories that took stockpiles near April's record highs.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) added to the bearish sentiment on Friday, saying there was a record 3 billion barrels of crude and oil products in tanks worldwide.

Workers with Raven Drilling line up pipe while drilling for oil in the Bakken shale formation outside Watford City, North Dakota.

Oil price special

coverage




U.S. crude's spot contract for December was at its widest discount in nearly three months to crude slated for delivery in a year. The global glut has prompted traders to store more oil with the hope of selling later at higher prices.

The entire strip of futures prices for the next six months has weakened over the past four weeks as focus shifted back from strong oil demand toward oversupply. Options trading has spiked with a soaring number of options taken to sell crude if prices fall to $40 or even $25.

"The evolving bearish global balances that we alluded to all year are acquiring increased transparency," said Jim Ritterbusch of Chicago-based oil consultancy Ritterbusch & Associates.

U.S. crude closed $1.01 lower, or 2.42 percent, at $40.74 a barrel. It fell about 8 percent on the week, its most since March.

Brent was off 46 cents, or 1.04 percent, at $43.60 a barrel. Its downside was limited by the impending expiry of its front month December contract at Friday's settlement. For the week, Brent was down nearly 8 percent, also its most since March.

Oil was caught in a larger commodities selloff on Friday. The Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB Index, a global benchmark, was near its lowest since 2002. An estimated crude oversupply of between 0.7 million and 2.5 million barrels per day has resulted in prices dropping almost two thirds since June 2014.

The IEA said a mild 2016 winter could cause the overhang to rise in coming months. Tens of millions of barrels are sitting on tankers at sea, looking for buyers and threatening logistical paralysis.




Opec sees supply hole in 2016 as low prices curb rival output Reuters + NewBase

Opec has said its oil output fell in October and forecast supply from rival producers next year would decline for the first time since 2007 as low prices prompt investment cuts, reducing a global supply glut.

In a monthly report last week, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said it pumped 31.38mn bpd last month, down 256,000 bpd from September.

If realised, the forecast of a decline in supply outside Opec would be a further indication the group’s strategy is working. Opec last year abandoned a longstanding policy of propping up prices and instead raised output, seeking to recover market share taken by higher-cost rival production.

Oil is trading at just under $46 a barrel, more than 50% below its price in June 2014.

“The recent decline in oil prices has encouraged additional oil demand,” Opec said in the report. “It has also provided a challenging market environment for some higher-cost crude oil production, which has already shown a slowdown.”

The group expects non-Opec supply next year to fall by about 130,000 bpd, following growth of 720,000 bpd this year, “as nearly $200bn of capex cutbacks this year and next create a gaping supply hole”.

Opec production, which has surged since the policy shift of November 2014 led by record Saudi Arabian and Iraqi output, fell in October on export delays in Iraq and lower supply from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, said the report, citing secondary sources. Opec’s report points to a 560,000-bpd supply surplus in the market next year if the group keeps pumping at October’s rate, down from 750,000 bpd indicated in last month’s report. In the third quarter of 2016, demand for Opec crude will rise to an average of 31.51mn bpd, Opec predicted.




NewBase Special Coverage

News Agencies News Release 15 Nov.. 2015

October Short-Term Energy Outlook lowers crude price

forecast for 2016 The Short-Term Energy Outlook released on November 10 forecasts average North Sea Brent crude oil prices of $54/barrel (b) in 2015 and $56/b in 2016. Forecast West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices average $4/b lower than the Brent price in 2015 and $5/b lower in 2016.

Current values of futures and options contracts continue to suggest high uncertainty in the price outlook (Market Prices and Uncertainty Report). Based on contracts traded during the five-day period ending November 5, the lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence interval for the market's expectation of monthly average WTI prices are estimated at $35/b and $66/b for February 2016 widening to $28/b and $95/b for December 2016 (Figure 1). Key market uncertainties include the pace and volume at which Iranian oil reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth, and the responsiveness of non-OPEC production to low oil prices.

Global petroleum and other liquids production continues to outpace consumption, leading to inventory expansion throughout the forecast period. However, the current average price forecast for Brent crude oil in 2016, which is $2/b lower than in last month's outlook, is associated with a




further reduction in the outlook for supply growth that in turn reduces the surplus of supply over consumption.

Global oil inventory builds in the third quarter of 2015 averaged 1.6 million b/d, down from 2.0 million b/d in the second quarter, which had the highest level of inventory builds since the fourth quarter of 2008. The pace of inventory builds is expected to slow in the fourth quarter to roughly 1.2 million b/d.

In 2016, inventory builds are expected to slow further to an average of 0.4 million b/d as global liquids output is expected to be unchanged from 2015. The 0.4 million b/d reduction in projected 2016 inventory builds from last month's STEO mostly reflects lower forecast oil production in Canada and the United States.

EIA expects non-OPEC production to grow by 1.1 million b/d in 2015, and then decline by 0.3 million b/d in 2016, which would be the first annual decline in non-OPEC production since 2008. The shift in expectation from non-OPEC production growth to declines in 2016 is mostly because of lower expected growth in Canada and larger expected declines in U.S. onshore production.

The reduction in forecast growth in Canada reflects persistently low oil prices resulting in announced delays or cancellations of projects previously scheduled to come online during the forecast period, including Shell's October announcement canceling the 80,000 b/d Camron Creek project. However, some oil sands projects continue as planned, including the Imperial Oil and Cenovus oil sands projects scheduled to come online by the end of 2016.

U.S. crude oil production is projected to increase from an average of 8.7 million b/d in 2014 to 9.3 million b/d in 2015 and then decrease to 8.8 million b/d in 2016. Expected crude oil production declines through September 2016 are largely attributable to unattractive economic returns in some areas of both emerging and mature onshore oil production regions, as well as seasonal factors such as anticipated hurricane-related production disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico.

Reductions in 2015 cash flows and capital expenditures have prompted companies to defer or redirect investment away from marginal exploration and research drilling to focus on core areas of major tight oil plays. Reduced investment has resulted in the lowest count of oil-directed rigs in about five years and in well completions that are significantly behind 2014 levels.

According to the latest survey-based reporting of monthly crude oil production estimates, U.S. production averaged 9.4 million b/d through the first eight months of 2015. This level is 0.1 million b/d higher than the average production during the fourth quarter of 2014, despite a more than 60% decline in the total U.S. oil-directed rig count since October 2014.

However, EIA estimates total crude oil production has declined almost 0.5 million b/d since April, averaging 9.1 million b/d in October. EIA expects U.S. crude oil production declines to generally continue through September 2016, when total production is forecast to average 8.5 million b/d. Forecast production begins increasing in late 2016, returning to an average of 8.9 million b/d in the fourth quarter.

EIA forecasts OPEC crude oil production to increase by 0.9 million b/d in 2015, led by production increases in Iraq. Forecast OPEC crude oil production increases by 0.2 million b/d in 2016, with Iran expected to increase production once international sanctions targeting its oil sector are suspended. Under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between the P5+1 and Iran that was announced on July 14, sanctions relief is contingent on verification by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that Iran has complied with key nuclear-related steps.




While much uncertainty remains as to the timing of sanctions relief, EIA assumes sanctions will ease in the second quarter of 2016. As a result, EIA forecasts Iranian crude oil supplies will increase by more than 0.2 million b/d on average in 2016, reaching roughly 3.3 million b/d by the end of the year.

EIA expects global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to grow by 1.4 million b/d in both 2015 and 2016. Projected real gross domestic product (GDP) for the world weighted by oil consumption, which increased by 2.7% in 2014, is expected to rise by 2.3% in 2015 and by 2.7% in 2016.

U.S. average regular retail gasoline price and diesel fuel prices increase

The U.S. average regular retail gasoline price increased one cent from the previous week to $2.24 per gallon on November 9, down 71 cents per gallon from the same time last year. The Midwest and Rocky Mountain prices each decreased, five cents and six cents to $2.22 per gallon, and $2.18 per gallon, respectively. The Gulf Coast price increased six cents to $1.97 per gallon. The East Coast price rose five cents to $2.16 per gallon, and the West Coast price was up two cents to $2.67 per gallon.

The U.S. average diesel fuel price increased two cents from a week ago to $2.50 per gallon, down $1.18 per gallon from the same time last year. The Rocky Mountain price was the only decrease, down one cent to $2.49 per gallon. The Gulf Coast price increased three cents to $2.32 per gallon. The West Coast and East Coast prices each increased two cents to $2.71 per gallon, and $2.51 per gallon, respectively. The Midwest price was up one cent to $2.53 per gallon.

Residential heating oil price increases while propane price decreases

As of November 9, 2015, residential heating oil prices averaged nearly $2.43 per gallon, less than 1 cent per gallon higher than last week and 99 cents lower than one year ago. The average wholesale heating oil price this week is almost $1.58 per gallon, more than 4 cents less than last week and $1.13 per gallon less than a year ago.

Residential propane prices averaged just under $1.92 per gallon, less than 1 cent per gallon lower than last week's price and 49 cents lower than one year ago. Wholesale propane prices averaged nearly 53 cents per gallon, 1 cent per gallon lower than last week's price and 49 cents lower than last yearâ€™s price.

Propane inventories gain

U.S. propane stocks increased by 1.6 million barrels last week to 104.0 million barrels as of November 6, 2015, 22.9 million barrels (28.3%) higher than a year ago. Gulf Coast inventories increased by 0.9 million barrels and Midwest inventories increased by 0.4 million barrels. East Coast inventories increase by 0.2 million barrels while Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories remained unchanged. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 3.5% of total propane inventories.




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Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010

Mobile: +97150-4822502 [email protected] [email protected]

Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &

regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.

NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

NewBase 15 November 2015 K. Al Awadi

new base 728 special 15 november 2015

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