new base 499 special 17 december 2014

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NewBase 17 December 2014 - Issue No. 499 Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

UAE confident of budget surplus until 2019 despite oil collapse Gulf News + NewBase

The United Arab Emirates is confident it can maintain a budget surplus even as oil prices decline, but the International Monetary Fund warns the country will need foreign assets to fund developments.

Minister of Economy Sultan Bin Saeed Al Mansouri said at the UAE Economic Outlook Forum in Dubai on Tuesday the country will deliver a budget surplus until at least 2019. The UAE will be able to absorb shocks to the economy in the short-term from the falling oil price, the Minister said.

Global benchmark Brent crude is down almost 50 per cent to since June. On Tuesday, it was trading down 3.06 per cent at $59.19 a barrel. The falling oil price has raised concerns for budgets and the funding of government projects in oil dependent economies. The IMF warned on Tuesday the UAE economy is at risk from the falling oil price.

“The UAE is now at risk of tapping into its foreign assets,” Harald Finger, the IMF’s head

of mission for the UAE, told the same forum in a speech that followed the Minister. But the UAE is more bullish on its outlook even as some analysts warn oil could reach $50 a barrel.




Asked if the UAE is expected to use its foreign assets, which include foreign currency reserves, the Minister told Gulf News after his speech, “I don’t think at this stage that is necessary.” “If there is a need for that it could come from the reserve, but I do not see at this time a need to do that because we do not have major projects to go for and whatever we have now we can manage,” Al Mansouri said.

UAE markets have tanked in recent weeks in response to the oil price plunge. The Dubai Financial Market has lost 27 per cent of its value since the start of the month. On Tuesday, the index ended 7.27 per cent

lower at 3,083.69. The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange lost more is down 9 per cent since the start of the month. On Tuesday, the index ended 6.9 per cent lower at 3,892.08.

Shaikh Ahmad Bin Saeed Al Maktoum, Chairman of Dubai’s Supreme Fiscal Committee, said earlier at the forum the Dubai government is “keen to control government spending and avoid a budget deficit”. He did not elaborate when asked what the government would do to control spending.

Projects in Dubai, which include the $32 billion expansion of Al Maktoum International Airport in Dubai World Central and the Dh2 billion Dubai Creek expansion, will likely go ahead as planned.

“What has already started in terms of projects will continue to be implemented and financed … [but] if the oil drops persists and remains under $65 a barrel, then capital projects will start to suffer,” Mohammad Lahouel, chief economist at the Dubai Department of Economic Development.

Abu Dhabi, which is highly dependent on oil revenues, has also dismissed any immediate impact of falling oil prices.

Shorooq Al Za’abi, an official from the Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development, said at the forum the emirate had budgeted 2014 with oil prices at an average of $103 a barrel.

Brent crude has averaged at $102.35 a barrel for the first eleven months of the year, according to data from the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA). The average monthly price for December is likely to bring down the 2014 average.




Morocco plans USD 4.6 bln investment to boost LNG imports News Agencies + NewBase

Morocco’s industrial hub of Jorf Lasfar could get an LNG import terminal, according to the country’s energy minister Abdelkader Amara.

The minister told that there are several projects worth about USD4.6 billion that will be awarded via international tenders. As Reuters reports, Morocco, is aiming to diversify its energy supplies and cut down on oil and coal imports, with plans to add 4 gigawatts of renewable energy.

According to the plan, Morocco would be able to import up to 7 billion cubic meters of gas by 2025. The construction would include an LNG jetty, terminal and pipelines. A regasification unit in Jorf Lasfar port is also in the plans while the state power utility ONEE intends on building four gas-fired power plants of 600 MW.

According to Amara, negotiations of supplies with exporters it the first step that will be taken in early 2015. In case the negotiations do not bring results, Morocco would launch tenders directly in the international markets. In 2011, Morocco signed a deal with Sonatrach to import 640 mcm of gas from Algeria




Sudan to drill hundreds of wells to boost oil and gas reserves Reuters + NewBase

Sudan's oil minister says the country will drill more than 250 wells in the coming year, aiming to boost its energy reserves by 65.4 million barrels of oil and 300 billion cubic feet of gas, state media reported on Tuesday.

When South Sudan seceded in 2011, it took with it three-quarters of the former unified country's oil wealth, estimated at 5 billion barrels of proven reserves by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Oil exports had been the main source of the foreign currency used to support the Sudanese pound and to pay for food and other imports, and the loss of the south hit the economy hard.

The 253 exploratory wells planned for 2015 could attract foreign investment and help pay down the country's high debt, Oil Minister Makkawi Mohamed Awad told Sudan's parliament, according to state news agency SUNA.

Sudan's inflation rate has neared 50 percent at times in the past year, after Khartoum slashed costly fuel subsidies that much of the population relied on. The rising cost of living in the country has stirred social discontent, prompting protests last year in which dozens were killed and hundreds were injured. Inflation has eased but remains high, at 25.6 percent for November.




Tunisia:Serinus Energy's Winstar-12bis strong initial production rates Source: Serinus Energy

Serinus Energy has reported an update on its drilling program in the Sabria field in central

Tunisia. TheWinstar-12bis well ('WIN-12bis') was tied into the flowline and commenced

extended production on December 10, 2014. It is producing 41.5 API light oil and solution gas,

consistent with the rest of the field. The initial and average-to-date test data are summarized in the

table below:

Winstar-12bis Test Data

These rates were all achieved with a choke size of 16/64 inches (6.35 mm). Prior to tie-in, intermittent production tests flowed total fluid rates of up to 1,200 bbl/d, with water cuts ranging between 80% and 95% as the well had yet to recover drilling and completion fluids that had been lost to the formation during those operations. As the data in the table above indicate, the well is unloading those fluids and as it does, production rates have continued to increase as the water cut falls. Testing will continue until the well has substantially cleaned up and reaches a stabilized flow rate and water cut.

The Winstar-13 well ('WIN-13') has also commenced drilling in the eastern portion of the Sabria Field approximately 2 km WSW of WIN-12bis, with the same Pergemine rig used for WIN-12bis. The planned total depth is 3,860 metres and the well is expected to take 63 days to drill. . It is 30 metres structurally lower than WIN-12bis, although still high relative to the other producing wells in the field. The Sabria field covers approx. 11,250 acres and is 45% owned and operated by Winstar Tunisia, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Serinus. The other 55% is owned by the Tunisian state oil company,Entreprise Tunisienne D’Activites Pétrolières ('ETAP').

Jock Graham, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Serinus said:




'We are extremely pleased with the performance of WIN-12bis as the well has exceeded our expectations to this point. We will continue to monitor the well’s performance and look forward to seeing what its ultimate stabilized rate will be. In addition to a material increase to our Tunisian production, this well and WIN-13 will provide new data about the Sabria reservoir, and contribute

to the Company’s drilling performance. We look forward to the WIN-13 results once it reaches its target depth in February.'




Oman:Orpic signs for $320m Muscat-Sohar pipeline project OMAN TIMES NEWS SERVICE

Engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract and a financing agreement for the 280-km long Muscat Sohar Product Pipeline project (MSPP) was signed on Tuesday by OrpicLogistics Company (OLC) — a joint venture between Oman Oil Refineries and PetroleumIndustries (Orpic) and the Spanish firm Compañía Logística de Hidrocarburos (CLH)

The Oman-based GPS company, which has business activities spread across Gulf CooperationCouncil (GCC) states, will be the lead contractor in the EPC contract. It will be supported byAbantia, a Spanish construction company, which has experience in terminal construction, alongwith Diseprosa, an engineering company based in Spain

The financing agreement, which will cover 70 per cent of the project value, has been given toahlibank and Ahli United Bank (AUB)

Multi-product pipeline

The $320 million-MSPP project will be a two-way multi-product pipeline, the first of its kind to beconstructed in Oman, and the new pipeline network will eliminate the need for Orpic to ship andtruck refined products

Not only will it bring a new level of efficiency and lower costs to its business, it will reduce thenumber of fuel-tank truck journeys in and around Muscat. Heavy fuel-tank truck traffic in Muscat isexpected to drop by 70 per cent

The pipeline project will connect Orpic's Mina Al Fahal and Sohar refineries by means of a 280-kmpipeline to an intermediate distribution and storage facility at Jifnain in the Wilayat of Seeb, as wellas a new storage facility at Muscat International Airport, which will receive aviation fuel directlyfrom the pipeline

The construction of the pipeline and oil tanks facility will start in the first quarter of 2015 and theproject is due to be commissioned in the second quarter of 2017

Financing agreement

The EPC contract and financing agreement were signed on behalf of Orpic Logistics Company byMusab Al Mahruqi, Chairman of OLC, and Salvador Guillen, a board member of OLC and onbehalf of GPS the contract was signed by its General Manager N. Vahora

The financing agreement was signed on behalf of the ahlibank by its CEO Lloyd Maddock, CB




Ganesh, deputy CEO, Prakash Mohan (group head), Corporate Banking from Ahli United BankBahrain, and Shyam Sunder, team leader, Energy & Utility from Ahli United Bank

The signing ceremony was held in Orpic's Mina Al Fahal Refinery and attended by Salim binNasser Al Aufi, Undersecretary of the Ministry of Oil and Gas, and Juan-Jose Urtasun, SpanishAmbassador to the Sultanate of Oman.

"The MSPP project is actually of paramountimportance to the Sultanate as it will helpsatisfying the growing domestic demand forfuels which is seven per cent per annum, it willguarantee a timely availability of productswithout shortage and after its commissioning50 per cent of the country's demand will be metfrom the new storage facility of the project,"said Musab Al Mahruqi

Additionally, during their speeches, Jose LuisLopez de Silanes said: "It is an honour for CLH

that Orpic has chosen us to participate in such an important operation, which will bring significantadvantages to this country and will mean the transformation of its oil product logistics model into amore efficient, safe and environmentally-friendly one.

Salvador Guillen said, "The ambitious objectives associated to the MSPP project can be achievedif we continue working with the same degree of commitment and effort that we have employed todate. At this point, I would like to highlight the professional attitude shown by the OLC team andthe dedication of its board members.

The pipeline is split into three sections: MAF-Seeb Terminal: 42-km (10 inches), Seeb Terminal-Airport: 27-km (10 inches), and Sohar-Seeb Terminal: 228-km (18 inches). The project willconstitute of a state of the art control systems with latest technology of SCADA, leak detection,and telecommunication network and it will equipped with loading facilities for trucks filling that isdesigned to load 200 trucks per day.




Iraq:Gulf Keystone Petroleum announces Kurdistan Ops.update Gulf Keystone Petroleum

Gulf Keystone Petroleum has provided an update on the Company's operations at Shaikan, its key producing asset.

The Company has announced the completion of the installation of the flowlines to connect the Shaikan-7, -8, and -10 wells to the existing production facilities ('PF-1' and 'PF-2'). The Shaikan-7 and -8 wells are now tied to PF-1 and Shaikan-10 to PF-2.

The flowlines are currently being hydro-tested and first oil is expected to flow to the production facilities in December. With the addition of the three new producers, the current total production levels of between 23,000 and 25,000 gross bopd will increase to 40,000 gross bopd.

An amine plant is currently being tested at PF-2, to be followed by the similar plant at PF-1 in early 2015. The amine plants will sweeten the associated gas stream, allowing it to be used as fuel for the production facilities instead of diesel, representing savings of up to US$400,000 per month to the project.

A rig package is moving to a location in the vicinity of Shaikan-10 in order to drill Shaikan-11, an additional producer. An 11 km flowline to tie this well to PF-2 has already been laid. Shaikan crude oil exports by truck to the Turkish coast continue uninterrupted.

John Gerstenlauer, Gulf Keystone's Chief Executive Officer commented:

'Despite numerous challenges earlier this year, Gulf Keystone has completed the work on the three additional producers on time. We are now testing the flowline connections, including an 11 km link between Shaikan-10 and PF-2, and look forward to boosting Shaikan production to our near-term target of 40,000 bopd.

I would like to thank our entire team in the Kurdistan Region, which today includes over 300 employees and contractors, for their effort and diligent delivery in the area of construction, production and crude oil export sales.'




Madagascar: Afren completes Block 1101 drilling and coring operation Source: Afren Afren, operator ofBlock 1101 onshore Madagascar, has announced the completion of its drilling and coring operations and the discovery of oil in two boreholes drilled on the block.

A total of four strategic locations on Block 1101, which measures some 11,200 km² (2.8 million acres), were successfully drilled and cored to an aggregate depth of 2,000m (6,500ft) with approx. 1,760m (5,720ft) of core samples recovered. Drilling at each of the locations successfully completed the respective technical objectives to assess specific aspects of the Block's petroleum systems.

Two core holes were drilled to depths of 650m (2,112ft) and 500m (1,625ft) adjacent to the 1902 coal borehole (Ankaramy-1) which had reportedly encountered 'hydrocarbon shows'. Cores recovered from both locations indicated the presence of hydrocarbons and potentially good reservoir quality over multiple zones. Early indications provide further evidence of at least three different source rocks working across the Block in Triassic, Jurassic and Cretaceous zones. Further detailed analysis of the cores will be undertaken in Q1 2015 to confirm the nature and extent of the hydrocarbons. Toby Hayward, Interim Chief Executive of Afren, commented:

'We have made good progress on Block 1101 with encouraging results indicating the presence of oil over several zones. This underscores the high quality of our East African portfolio and we look forward to working with our partner (Oyster Oil and Gas) to determine the nature and extent of the discovery.'




Nigeria: Lekoil provides Otakikpo Marginal Field update Source: Lekoil

AIM-listed Lekoil, the oil and gas exploration and development company with a focus on Nigeria and West Africa, has provided an update on its progress on the Otakikpo Marginal Field in oil mining lease (OML) 11, offshore Nigeria, adjacent to shoreline in the eastern part of the Niger Delta.

Lekoil, the Technical and Financial Partner in the Otakikpo project (Lekoil: 40 per cent. participating and economic interest) and its partner Green Energy, have secured approvals for the well re-entry plan. The Company has also commenced a phased re-entry plan, fully funded with cash on hand, to reach production. Earlier in the year, the Company had announced that it expected to begin production in the second half of 2015. Based on the updated phased approach, we are pleased to announce that production is now expected in the

first half of 2015, six months ahead of the previous schedule. Under the terms of the acquisition of the interest in Otakikpo, Lekoil will fund costs to first oil and be entitled to recover this expenditure preferentially.

Based on our internal analysis and assumptions, which incorporate the AGR Tracs CPR data, the Company will breakeven at an oil price of less than $30 per bbl (life of field basis) with the lifetime unit costs being in the mid to low double digits.

This analysis does not include the potentially positive impact of the Pioneer Tax status which is currently being applied for. The indicative costs to first oil are substantially lower than expected due to more favourable service costs in the tenders received so far. Contracting has commenced for the rig, well services and production facilities construction. Rig mobilisation is initially expected within the first quarter of 2015 at the same time as construction and the subsequent commissioning of production facilities.

Progress is being made on discussions with lenders to provide debt financing to be used as funding for an accelerated work programme and we expect these discussions to be concluded in the first quarter of 2015. The accelerated work programme may be the optimal route to production if the Company secures Pioneer Tax status.

In September 2014, the Company announced a significant upgrade to 2C oil reserves estimates for Lekoil Nigeria's 40 per cent. participating interest and economic interest in Otakikpo. Lekoil holds 90 per cent. of the economic interests in Lekoil Nigeria.

AGR TRACS International carried out a comprehensive review of the surface and subsurface data provided by Lekoil. Following the review, AGR TRACS reported that the gross unrisked 2C Contingent Resources for Otakikpo were estimated to be 56.75 mmbbl. This compares to the 36 mmbbl of gross oil resources in the most recent 2C resource estimates available at the time of the Company's acquisition of the interest in Otakikpo in May 2014.




China : Sinopec puts Shandong LNG terminal into operation Source : Sinopec

China’s Sinopec said it has started up its first LNG terminal in Qingdao, Shandong

province.

The start-up of operations at the terminal was marked with the delivery of LNG cargo from ExxonMobil’s Papua New

Guinea LNG project onboard the 153,600 cbm Gaslog Chelsea.

In 2009, Sinopec and ExxonMobil signed a long-term deal for Sinopec to buy 2 million tonnes per annum from the PNG LNG project for a period of 20 years.

Initial capacity of the Shandong LNG terminal is set to 3 mtpa with a planned expansion to 5-6 mtpa in Phase II.




Repsol to buy Talisman Energy for $13 billion Source: Reuters via Yahoo! Finance Spanish oil company Repsol said on Tuesday it had reached a deal to buy Talisman Energy, Canada's fifth-largest independent oil producer, for $13 billion. The proposed acquisition will boost Repsol's exploration and production arm and fill a funding gap after the seizure of its Argentine business in 2012. It will also help to reduce the firm's reliance on high-risk oil producing areas such as Libya.

The oil price drop has lowered price tags on producers like

Talisman, spurring interest from Repsol which has been on the search

for oil and gas targets in North America or other countries with stable regulation. Repsol will pay $8.3 billion for 100 percent of Talisman shares which represents a 56 percent premium to the Calgary-based company's market value of $5.33 billion on Monday. Repsol will also take on $4.7 billion of debt.

The Spanish company said the acquisition would boost its oil production by 76 percent to 680,000 barrels per day while its reserves would increase 55 percent. It also said the acquisition would bring annual benefits worth $220 million and would be neutral for its earnings in 2016 and become accretive in 2017.

The board of Talisman has approved the transaction and recommended shareholders accept it, Repsol said in a statement to Spain's stock market regulator. Repsol shares were 2.6 pct lower at 15.28 euros.

Previous merger talks between the two companies broke down last summer because of Talisman's underperforming North Sea operations, much of which are in a joint venture with China's Sinopec.

Much of Talisman's western hemisphere operations were profitable while oil prices were high, but its North Sea businesses have weighed on results because maintenance work on aging platforms has made production targets unreliable and decommissioning obligations have increased. The company said earlier this year that it could take a charge against its operations in the region, which would be recorded in the fourth quarter if needed.

Talisman had valued the North Sea operations at $637 million but has warned that the size of potential impairments could result in a material reduction in the value of the company's investment. Repsol was advised by JP Morgan while Talisman was advised by Nomura and Goldman Sachs.




Oil Price Drop Special Coverage

Brent Falls Below $60 For First Time Since 2009 Reuters + NewBase

Brent crude oil prices fell over $1 per barrel and below $60 for the first time since July 2009 in early European trading on Tuesday as Chinese factory activity slowed and stumbling emerging market currencies dented demand expectations.

Oil futures have almost halved since June amid rising output and cooling demand, but producer club OPEC has so far resisted calls to cut production to shore up prices. Data showing activity in China’s factory sector shrank for the first time in seven months in December, adding to a slew of reports showing more fatigue in the world’s No.2 economy, further dragged on oil prices.

“China leaves 2014 on a weak note (and) the calls for further monetary stimulus are getting louder,” Singapore-based Phillip Futures said on Tuesday.

Brent for January delivery was at $59.75 a barrel at 0750 GMT, down $1.31.

U.S. crude for January delivery was at $54.85 a barrel, down $1.06 a barrel.

“The oil market is experiencing a cost re-basement which makes determining when the market is oversold extremely difficult,” U.S. bank Goldman Sachs said. “For the market to be oversold, it requires prices to be far below costs, (which) are falling nearly as fast as the price, which means oil producers can spend less to get the same or potentially even more in terms of production,” it added.




Analysts said weakening emerging market economies and their currencies were also weighing on oil prices. In Russia, the central bank hiked its key interest rate by 6.5 percentage points to 17 per cent on Tuesday in an attempt to halt a collapse in the rouble.

In India, the Reserve Bank has been intervening in support of the struggling rupee in recent sessions, triggered by a worsening trade deficit, and in Indonesia the rupiah dropped to its lowest value in 16 years against the U.S. dollar amid spiking emerging market volatility.

“The sharp decline in nearly all commodity prices and the weakening in commodity currencies creates headwinds for oil demand in the commodity producing emerging markets in Latin America and the Middle East. Historically these regions didn’t contribute much to oil demand, today they do,” Goldman Sachs said.

Gulf can cope with cheaper oil — IMF Reuters + NewBase The Arab energy exporting states of the Gulf can cope comfortably with sliding oil prices, an International Monetary Fund official said on Tuesday, as a plunge in regional stock markets showed some local investors were panicking. Brent crude oil dropped below $60 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since 2009, from around $115 as recently as June. If those levels persist next year, the six rich nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council will face the most dramatic change in their fortunes since the global economic crisis in 2008. All except Qatar would run state budget deficits as oil revenues shrank; Bahrain and Oman would be deep in the red.

Harald Finger, the IMF's head of mission for the United Arab Emirates, told a financial conference in Dubai that because the big GCC economies had built up huge fiscal reserves, they would not have to cut state spending deeply, and could therefore avoid sharp economic slowdowns. "Most of the GCC countries have quite significant buffers in the form of foreign assets in sovereign wealth funds or central banks, plus most of these countries have a capacity to borrow, so there is no need now for a very steep and quick reduction of spending, which would not necessarily be desirable," he said. Finger said the UAE might have to tap into its store of foreign assets to sustain government spending if oil prices stayed at current levels or went lower. Abu Dhabi's largest sovereign wealth




fund is believed to have nearly $800 billion of assets, roughly twice the UAE's entire annual gross domestic product, so it could cover many years of budget deficits. UAE economy minister Sultan bin Saeed Al-Mansouri told the conference that the country's fiscal reserves would let it avoid any significant cuts to development projects in coming years. Senior economic officials from the two biggest emirates in the UAE, forecast on Tuesday their economies would stay strong. Abu Dhabi predicted average growth of 5.5 per cent annually between 2014 and 2018; Dubai forecast rates above 4.5 percent. So far, international investors appear to agree that the big Gulf economies can ride out an era of lower oil prices without facing debt crises or steep reductions in their economic growth.

Qatar Oil Minister Says Market Will Settle Eventually

Qatar’s oil minister said OPEC and individual producer countries were closely watching oil prices following their latest decline on Tuesday, but he added the market would settle eventually.

Asked if OPEC stood by its decision to keep its output target of 30 million barrels per day (bpd) despite the fall of Brent crude futures to $59 a barrel, the minister, Mohammed al-Sada, said the producer group was watching the market closely.

The development of oil prices was being studied by individual countries, he said. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries declined to cut production at a Nov. 27 meeting and major Gulf OPEC members have since shown no sign of reversing course.

“We need to watch market closely, but it will settle eventually,” Sada said. “OPEC is watching the market closely and the development of oil prices is being studied by individual countries and the OPEC secretariat,” he added.

Oil fell to close to $59 a barrel for the first time since May 2009 on Tuesday, extending a six-month selloff as slowing Chinese factory activity and weakening emerging-market currencies

added to concerns about demand.





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Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MSc. & BSc. Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA ASME member since 1995 Emarat member since 1990

Mobile : +97150-4822502 [email protected] [email protected]

Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years , he has developed great

experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation , operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally , via GCC leading satellite Channels.

NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

NewBase 11 December 2014 K. Al Awadi

new base 499 special 17 december 2014

Economy & Finance