nevada polling - realclearpolitics · gravis marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a...
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Nevada Polling
Executive Summary
Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 700 registered, likely voters in Nevada. The poll was conducted on September 11th
and the 12th, with a margin of error of ±3.7%. The totals may not round to 100% because of rounding. The survey was conducted using interactive voice
responses and an online panel of cell phone users. The results are weighted by voting demographics. The poll was paid for by Gravis Marketing.
3) Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of President Trump’s job performance?
Q22: 2016VOTE Age group Gender
Didn't
vote
Donald
Trump
Gary
Johnson
Hillary
Clinton
Jill
Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64
65 or
older Female Male
Q3:
TRUMPPERFORMANCE
Somewhat Approve 45.2% 21.5% 5.7% 2.0% 0.0% 24.2% 20.4% 6.1% 6.2% 13.2% 13.4%
Somewhat
Disapprove 13.5% 2.2% 24.8% 9.0% 0.0% 16.3% 10.2% 3.1% 2.5% 9.7% 4.4%
Strongly Approve 1.6% 72.0% 3.8% 5.3% 31.4% 26.4% 21.8% 38.8% 42.8% 30.5% 34.8%
Strongly Disapprove 19.2% 2.4% 65.7% 81.1% 68.6% 23.5% 43.5% 50.4% 47.9% 41.4% 45.8%
Uncertain 20.5% 1.9% 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 9.7% 4.2% 1.6% 0.7% 5.3% 1.6%
Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870
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4) Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of Senator Heller’s job performance?
Q22: 2016VOTE Age group Gender
Didn't
vote
Donald
Trump
Gary
Johnson
Hillary
Clinton
Jill
Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64
65 or
older Female Male
Q4:
HELLERPERFORMANCE
Somewhat Approve 7.0% 33.1% 10.8% 9.7% 31.4% 19.2% 18.8% 19.9% 20.1% 18.1% 21.0%
Somewhat
Disapprove 0.7% 11.6% 28.0% 14.3% 2.5% 11.9% 18.0% 9.9% 9.6% 12.6% 12.6%
Strongly Approve 0.5% 41.3% 3.1% 2.3% 0.0% 12.9% 13.6% 19.8% 25.2% 17.5% 18.5%
Strongly Disapprove 25.8% 4.8% 41.5% 67.0% 41.0% 20.6% 32.0% 46.5% 41.0% 32.8% 41.3%
Uncertain 65.9% 9.2% 16.6% 6.7% 25.2% 35.4% 17.6% 3.9% 4.0% 19.1% 6.6%
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5) Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of Senator Cortez Masto’s job performance?
Q22: 2016VOTE Age group Gender
Didn't
vote
Donald
Trump
Gary
Johnson
Hillary
Clinton
Jill
Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64
65 or
older Female Male
Q5:
CORTEZPERFORMANCE
Somewhat Approve 30.8% 12.7% 34.8% 24.4% 0.8% 21.3% 19.9% 22.2% 16.4% 20.1% 20.2%
Somewhat
Disapprove 7.0% 12.3% 19.7% 9.1% 77.9% 11.0% 19.6% 8.0% 9.1% 11.7% 12.7%
Strongly Approve 0.0% 7.8% 8.1% 42.9% 21.3% 23.2% 10.0% 28.5% 34.2% 19.8% 27.0%
Strongly Disapprove 12.0% 48.7% 14.3% 7.1% 0.0% 21.2% 18.6% 28.1% 30.0% 22.8% 26.4%
Uncertain 50.2% 18.5% 23.1% 16.5% 0.0% 23.3% 31.9% 13.2% 10.3% 25.5% 13.6%
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6) Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of Governor Sandoval’s job performance?
Q22: 2016VOTE Age group Gender
Didn't
vote
Donald
Trump
Gary
Johnson
Hillary
Clinton
Jill
Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64
65 or
older Female Male
Q6:
SANDOVALPERFORMANCE
Somewhat Approve 29.2% 35.6% 56.4% 36.9% 32.5% 30.6% 39.2% 35.5% 39.5% 35.0% 38.4%
Somewhat
Disapprove 1.0% 12.2% 1.8% 18.1% 5.7% 2.2% 18.8% 16.4% 9.2% 10.1% 16.9%
Strongly Approve 9.3% 34.0% 32.0% 24.6% 61.8% 13.0% 21.3% 34.1% 41.4% 27.8% 29.1%
Strongly Disapprove 8.6% 8.9% 9.7% 11.8% 0.0% 19.1% 8.0% 9.7% 6.3% 8.9% 11.1%
Uncertain 51.9% 9.3% 0.0% 8.6% 0.0% 35.1% 12.5% 4.3% 3.7% 18.1% 4.4%
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7) If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Adam Laxalt and Democrat Steve Sisolak, who would you vote for?
Q22: 2016VOTE Age group Gender
Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 65 or older Female Male
Q7: LAXALTVSSISOLAK Adam Laxalt 27.0% 77.4% 22.6% 8.2% 0.0% 25.0% 35.9% 40.2% 48.5% 37.1% 39.4%
Steve Sisolak 36.1% 10.9% 59.5% 85.6% 65.5% 52.9% 47.1% 52.3% 47.7% 48.3% 51.6%
Uncertain 36.9% 11.7% 17.9% 6.3% 34.5% 22.1% 17.0% 7.5% 3.8% 14.6% 9.0%
8) If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Democrat Jacky Rosen and Republican Dean Heller, who would you vote for?
Q22: 2016VOTE Age group Gender
Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 65 or older Female Male
Q8: ROSENVSHELLER Dean Heller 25.2% 84.5% 34.8% 11.4% 72.3% 43.7% 41.2% 44.9% 49.5% 41.6% 47.8%
Jacky Rosen 44.3% 8.7% 57.2% 82.3% 27.7% 43.8% 48.7% 47.6% 47.2% 44.9% 49.7%
Uncertain 30.5% 6.7% 8.0% 6.2% 0.0% 12.5% 10.2% 7.4% 3.4% 13.5% 2.5%
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9) If the election for Lt. Governor were held today and the candidates were Democrat Kate Marshall and Republican Michael Roberson, who would
you vote for?
Q22: 2016VOTE Age group Gender
Didn't
vote
Donald
Trump
Gary
Johnson
Hillary
Clinton
Jill
Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64
65 or
older Female Male
Q9:
MARSHALLVSROBERSON
Kate Marshall 49.2% 6.3% 47.8% 77.6% 70.3% 43.3% 50.0% 43.5% 41.2% 43.5% 46.5%
Michael
Roberson 15.5% 70.3% 22.0% 7.5% 26.6% 29.2% 26.5% 40.9% 41.0% 32.4% 37.3%
Uncertain 35.3% 23.4% 30.2% 14.8% 3.1% 27.5% 23.5% 15.6% 17.8% 24.2% 16.2%
10) If the election for Secretary of State were held today and the candidates were Democrat Nelson Araujo and Republican Barbara Cegavske, who
would you vote for?
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Q22: 2016VOTE Age group Gender
Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 65 or older Female Male
Q10: ARAUJOORCEGAVSKE Barbara Cegavske 8.9% 72.0% 19.8% 18.1% 61.0% 38.5% 33.3% 42.0% 48.8% 36.1% 44.8%
Nelson Araujo 45.4% 5.3% 40.3% 70.1% 33.3% 40.2% 41.3% 40.6% 35.6% 38.9% 40.5%
Uncertain 45.7% 22.7% 39.9% 11.8% 5.7% 21.2% 25.4% 17.3% 15.6% 24.9% 14.7%
11) Would you more or less likely support a candidate for Congress if you knew they would support Nancy Pelosi to be Speaker of the House?
Q22: 2016VOTE Age group Gender
Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 65 or older Female Male
Q11: PELOSISUPPORT Less Likely 20.0% 80.3% 31.5% 16.1% 30.5% 44.2% 41.1% 42.6% 48.0% 39.6% 47.8%
More Likely 9.6% 5.6% 23.6% 49.4% 67.2% 20.7% 24.2% 33.1% 29.7% 24.9% 30.8%
Uncertain 70.4% 14.1% 44.8% 34.4% 2.3% 35.1% 34.7% 24.3% 22.3% 35.5% 21.3%
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12) Would you more or less likely support a candidate for Congress if you knew they would vote to impeach President Donald J. Trump?
Q22: 2016VOTE Age group Gender
Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 65 or older Female Male
Q12: IMPEACHMENTSUPPORT Less Likely 8.2% 83.4% 26.3% 11.6% 47.1% 47.3% 34.5% 42.9% 47.1% 41.1% 42.8%
More Likely 58.1% 5.8% 50.4% 76.0% 49.6% 32.1% 50.6% 44.6% 44.2% 42.0% 46.9%
Uncertain 33.8% 10.8% 23.3% 12.5% 3.3% 20.6% 14.9% 12.5% 8.7% 16.9% 10.3%
13) Do you currently approve or disapprove of the Tax Reform Bill that was signed into law recently?
Q22: 2016VOTE Age group Gender
Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 65 or older Female Male
Q13: TAXREFORMAPPROVAL Approve 3.2% 71.7% 18.8% 7.0% 10.9% 29.6% 22.1% 40.7% 42.0% 30.8% 36.7%
Disapprove 61.4% 6.0% 67.7% 78.0% 68.6% 44.5% 45.2% 49.2% 47.2% 43.5% 50.4%
Uncertain 35.4% 22.3% 13.5% 15.0% 20.5% 25.9% 32.7% 10.1% 10.8% 25.7% 12.9%
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14) Do you support or oppose the legalization of same-sex marriage in the United States?
Q22: 2016VOTE Age group Gender
Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 65 or older Female Male
Q14: SAMESEXMARRIAGE Oppose 23.7% 48.6% 9.6% 14.3% 20.5% 16.3% 25.9% 35.4% 32.3% 25.1% 32.9%
Support 61.8% 36.4% 74.8% 76.7% 74.7% 76.7% 67.2% 50.4% 47.9% 61.9% 56.1%
Uncertain 14.5% 15.0% 15.6% 8.9% 4.7% 7.0% 6.9% 14.2% 19.8% 13.1% 10.9%
15) Do you support or oppose a ban on the ability to obtain an abortion in Nevada?
Q22: 2016VOTE Age group Gender
Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 65 or older Female Male
Q15: ABORTION1 Oppose 34.7% 31.4% 55.6% 59.9% 31.2% 42.7% 50.2% 48.5% 36.8% 43.3% 48.2%
Support 33.7% 38.8% 39.1% 31.0% 56.6% 42.1% 27.7% 35.7% 40.4% 36.4% 34.2%
Uncertain 31.7% 29.8% 5.3% 9.1% 12.3% 15.2% 22.1% 15.8% 22.7% 20.3% 17.7%
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16) Do you support or oppose a ban on the ability to obtain an abortion after a pregnancy has lasted for 20 weeks in Nevada?
Q22: 2016VOTE Age group Gender
Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 65 or older Female Male
Q16: ABORTION2 Oppose 44.3% 46.9% 56.9% 52.9% 63.8% 55.5% 53.8% 47.5% 45.6% 52.3% 48.1%
Support 22.9% 35.8% 26.8% 21.5% 33.1% 29.0% 20.1% 32.3% 31.3% 28.8% 27.0%
Uncertain 32.8% 17.3% 16.3% 25.5% 3.1% 15.4% 26.1% 20.2% 23.1% 18.9% 24.9%
17) Do you support or oppose laws that would stop LGBTQ individuals from being discriminated against in regards to employment, housing, and
healthcare in Nevada?
Q22: 2016VOTE Age group Gender
Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 65 or older Female Male
Q17: LGBTQDISCRIMINATION Oppose 20.1% 25.7% 16.9% 19.0% 31.4% 21.6% 14.2% 28.8% 22.5% 19.6% 24.5%
Support 73.1% 47.3% 69.7% 65.7% 63.9% 76.2% 60.4% 51.8% 55.1% 62.2% 55.5%
Uncertain 6.9% 27.0% 13.4% 15.3% 4.7% 2.2% 25.4% 19.5% 22.4% 18.2% 20.0%
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18) Do you support or oppose President Trump’s actions regarding removing the United States from the Iranian Nuclear Agreement?
Q22: 2016VOTE Age group Gender
Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 65 or older Female Male
Q18: NUCLEAR Oppose 23.0% 3.7% 48.2% 75.3% 68.6% 19.4% 39.7% 47.8% 47.9% 37.4% 44.6%
Support 8.2% 82.1% 8.4% 9.7% 31.4% 43.2% 32.8% 40.2% 44.5% 35.1% 44.0%
Uncertain 68.8% 14.2% 43.4% 14.9% 0.0% 37.4% 27.5% 12.0% 7.6% 27.6% 11.4%
19) As you may know there is an investigation into possible dealings with President Trump’s associates and Russia being led by Special Counsel Robert
Mueller. Do you believe the investigation is justified or do you believe it is politically motivated?
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Q22: 2016VOTE Age group Gender
Didn't
vote
Donald
Trump
Gary
Johnson
Hillary
Clinton
Jill
Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64
65 or
older Female Male
Q19:
RUSSIAINVESTIGATION
Justified 41.4% 11.9% 68.1% 83.2% 89.1% 52.6% 48.3% 51.3% 50.8% 51.2% 49.8%
Politically
motivated 22.9% 82.2% 20.3% 13.7% 10.9% 33.3% 39.5% 45.8% 48.3% 39.4% 45.8%
Uncertain 35.6% 5.9% 11.5% 3.1% 0.0% 14.1% 12.2% 2.9% 0.9% 9.4% 4.5%
20) Would you approve or disapprove of a border wall built between the Mexican & Nevada border?
Q22: 2016VOTE Age group Gender
Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 65 or older Female Male
Q20: WALL Approve 22.3% 74.8% 21.3% 11.5% 41.4% 30.6% 39.6% 41.8% 40.9% 35.9% 42.7%
Disapprove 49.6% 10.2% 73.6% 83.4% 42.9% 49.8% 47.9% 51.4% 50.1% 51.8% 47.7%
Uncertain 28.1% 15.0% 5.1% 5.1% 15.7% 19.6% 12.6% 6.8% 9.0% 12.3% 9.7%
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21) Do you support or oppose President Trump’s decision in revoking former CIA-Director John Brennan’s security clearance?
Q22: 2016VOTE Age group Gender
Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 65 or older Female Male
Q21: BRENNANCLEARANCE Oppose 12.5% 6.8% 55.8% 78.5% 68.6% 33.1% 42.6% 45.1% 48.3% 42.4% 43.9%
Support 7.7% 77.5% 9.5% 8.2% 31.4% 30.7% 30.0% 42.3% 42.8% 33.9% 40.0%
Uncertain 79.8% 15.7% 34.6% 13.3% 0.0% 36.3% 27.4% 12.6% 9.0% 23.7% 16.2%
22) In the 2016 Presidential election whom did you vote for?
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Q22: 2016VOTE Age group Gender
Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 65 or older Female Male
Q22: 2016VOTE Didn't vote 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 27.6% 5.0% 3.7% 2.0% 11.8% 2.9%
Donald Trump 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 32.6% 38.7% 40.9% 48.8% 38.2% 43.1%
Gary Johnson 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 4.7% 7.5% 2.3% 4.6% 5.3%
Hillary Clinton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 36.3% 46.2% 47.3% 45.7% 42.9% 46.9%
Jill Stein 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 5.4% 0.7% 1.2% 2.4% 1.7%
The following questions are for demographic purposes:
1) Are you registered to vote in Nevada?
2) How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Nevada Midterm Elections?
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23) What is your party affiliation?
24) What is your political ideology?
25) Are you or is a member of your immediate family from a Latino, Hispanic or Spanish speaking background?
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26) What race do you identify yourself as?
27) Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
28) What is the highest level of education you have completed?
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29) How old are you?
30) What is your gender?