network benefit cost analysis: an overview of the application of net_bc software for caltrans...
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Network Benefit Cost Analysis:
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans
District 5’s System Analysis Study
TRB Planning Applications Conference
Houston, Texas
May 19, 2009
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009
Project Team
Caltrans District 5
Bernardin-Lochmueller
System Metrics Group
Kimley-Horn
Judy Lang, Project Manager
Claudia Espino, Coordinator
Jeff Berkman, Modeling
Andy Richardson, GIS
Modeling & NET_BC
Cal-B/C Resource Cost Estimation
With HQ & District 4
Dean Munn, Task Leader
Arben Shasho, Software Dvlpmt
Vince Bernardin, Sr., Senior Advisor
Chris Williges, B/C Advisor Anush Nejad, Task Leader
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009
Congestion Analysis Is Not Sufficient for Decision-making
?Scenario 1 Scenario 4
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009
The Study Area
• Santa Clara and San Benito Counties
• SRs 152 & 156
• Major east-west routes south of SF Bay Area
• SR 25
• Commuter corridor to Silicon Valley
• US 101
• Major north-south route
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009
VTA’s Southern Gateway Study
What combination of improvements will lead to the most efficient flow of
traffic through the region?
The challenge:
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009
Are they economically feasible?
Decision Questions
Project Cost: $1,051 MProject Cost: $1,324 M
If so, which is the better investment?
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009
Benefit-Cost Analysis
@Istockphoto-5467161
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009
Network User Benefit Cost Analysis
Network Benefit Cost is the logical alternative
Captures network effects by using travel model
Incorporates a wide variety of available data
Is efficient for complex and multiple alternatives
Can help answer the phasing question
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009
User Benefit-Cost Analysis Supports Decision-Making
User Benefits
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Mobility Safety Operating
Costs
Development
O&MProject
@iStockphoto 4318571
Decision Measures:
• Benefit/Cost Ratio
• Net Present Value
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009
NET_BC Implementation for System Analysis StudyPreparation and Customization
Travel Demand Model Runs (AMBAG Model)
• Modified traffic assignments (more iterations)
• Added signal locations and vertical grade
• Updated user interface for future analyses
NET_BC Preprocessor
• Customized to attach to AMBAG model
• Added HOV details and model’s time periods
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009
NET_BC Implementation for System Analysis StudyNET_BC
Network User Benefit-Cost Software
• Fully integrated with TransCAD
• Calibrated to Caltrans data
• Modified methodology for California crash rates
• Modified assumptions to match Cal-B/C
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009
Parses loaded networks and trip tables for…
4 model runs:
• No-Build Base Year• Build Base Year• No-Build Forecast Year• Build Forecast Year
Multiple modes – auto & trucks
NET_BC: Features & Operation
Post-processes Model Outputs
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009
Accepts User-Specified Assumptions
Discount rate
Analysis period
Construction assumptions
Costs
Mix of truck types
Consumer & producer price indices
NET_BC: Features & Operation
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009
Computes and discounts benefits and costs
Mobility Safety Vehicle Operating
Project Development
Operation &
Maintenance
NET_BC: Features & Operation
Benefits
Costs
@iStockphoto 8465949 @iStockphoto 393844
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009
VHT savings between build and no-build alternatives
Mobility Benefits
Consumer Surplus Theory applied to induced travel
Captured by time-of-day
Captured by mode (truck vs. auto)
Captured by purpose (work vs. non-work)
NET_BC: Mobility
@iStockphoto 8465949
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009
Safety Benefits
Methods sensitive to each link’s characteristics
•Able to use California average accident rates
NET_BC: Safety
@iStockphoto 393844
Safety benefits computed by fatal, injury, and PDO crash types
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009
Vehicle Operating Benefits
Contain specific cost factors for:
Oil
Fuel
Tire Wear
Maintenance
Depreciation
NET_BC: Vehicle Operating Costs
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009
Vehicle Operating Benefits
Cost factors vary by vehicle type:
•4-tire trucks
•6-tire trucks
•3+ axle semi-trucks
•5+ axle semi-trucks
•Small autos
•Medium/large autos
NET_BC: Vehicle Operating Costs
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009
Vehicle Operating Benefits
Are sensitive to:
•Stops and starts due to signalization
•Acceleration/deceleration/idle engine modes
•Vertical grades
•Flat, rolling, mountainous
•Level of congestion – flow density
NET_BC: Vehicle Operating Costs
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009
Produces Detailed Output Report
NET_BC: Features & Operation
Standard Measures:
•Benefit/Cost Ratio
•Net Present Value
System and Functional Class Summaries
•VMT, VHT, congestion indicators, performance indices
Mobility, Safety, & Vehicle Operating Cost Benefits Details
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009
Improvement Scenarios for Network B/C Analysis
System Analysis Study
On existing alignments On new alignments
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009
@iStockphoto: 7465953
NET_BC Implementation Process
Code networks and run TDM
Run pre-processor
Run NET_BC
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009
System Analysis Study Results
Scenario Results NET PRESENT
VALUE BENEFIT/COST
RATIO
Scenario 1
$781.6 million 1.58
Scenario 2
$770.3 million 1.60
Scenario 4
$583.4 million 1.54
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009
NET_BC Outputs for System Analysis Study
0
50
100
1 2 4 5 6
Scenario
Mil
lio
n $
Safety
Operating
Mobility
Mobility benefits dominate in 2030
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009
NET_BC Outputs for System Analysis Study
0
30
60
90
1 2 4 5 6
Scenario
Mill
ion
$ Safety
Operating
Mobility
For trucks, operating benefits dominate in 2030
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009
NET_BC Outputs for System Analysis Study
Rolling Terrain + Congestion
Lower Truck Operating Benefits for Scenario 4
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009
Conclusions After Using a Network Benefit Cost Approach
Standardized tools such as NET_BC produce results that aid in project evaluation and prioritization
Results helped focus people on solutions
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009
Conclusions After Using a Network Benefit Cost Approach
Analysis helped D5 staff better understand traffic flows in the region
Successful performance of NET_BC in D5 confirmed the merits of modifying NET_BC for Caltrans-wide use
Network benefit cost analysis is do-able
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009
NET_BC for Systems Analysis – Questions?
For trucks, operating benefits dominate in 2030
Scenario Results NET PRESENT
VALUE BENEFIT/COST
RATIO
Scenario 1
$781.6 million 1.58
Scenario 2
$770.3 million 1.60
Scenario 4
$583.4 million 1.54
0
30
60
90
1 2 4 5 6
ScenarioM
illio
n $ Safety
Operating
Mobility
Contacts: Dean Munn [email protected], Judy Lang [email protected]
An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009
iStockphotos.com (copyrighted)
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Caltrans Other
J. Simek
Credits
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