Net Zero and Beyond

Jim Schwartz

Director, Global Strategic Marketing

Johnson Controls Building Efficiency

October 2013

What is a Net Zero energy building?

“The concept of a Net Zero Energy Building (NZEB), one which produces as much

energy as it uses over the course of a year...”Steven Winter Associates, Whole Building Design Guide

“Net-zero is possible, even in one of the most extreme climates in the country…”Dave Elrod, Regional Manager, DPR Construction

“ …efficiency measures…7-10x…more cost effective than applying power generation

technologies.”David Eijadi, owner, The Weidt Group

Sources: 1) Net Zero Energy Buildings, Steven Winter Associates, 2013 2) DPR Construction, 2013, 3) BD&C whitepaper supplement to “Zero & Net Zero Energy Buildings & Homes”, March

2011

Buildings in the 2200 century will be surpassing Net Zero and driving

toward Net Negative energy use—where many buildings give back more

to the grid than they consume

2

Commercial18%

Residential22%

Industrial32%

Transpor-tation28%

Focusing on Net Zero in commercial buildings

• Macro drivers for energy efficiency

– Rising energy costs

– Growing GHG emissions

– Sustainability goals/image

• Buildings consume more energy

than any other sector … ~40%

• Commercial buildings are the most

energy intense

– 4.5X residential energy use per sq-ft

• Commercial building energy use

growing faster than other sectors

3

Commercial building sector has highest energy intensity

Sources: 1) Architecture 2030; 2) US Energy Information Administration; 3) US Environmental Protection Agency; 4) Institute for Building Efficiency’s Energy Efficiency

Buildings 40%

250 M+

vehicles

~5 M bldgs … highest

energy intensity

~115 M

households

US Energy Consumption by Sector

Identified as top 3

issues for building

owners[Energy Efficiency

Indicator survey]

Energy Independence & Security Act of 2007

4

2030 2040 2050

All new commercial

buildings

50% of all

commercial

buildings

100% of all

commercial

buildings

Department of Energy Net Zero Commercial Building Initiative

In June 2013, President Obama introduced the Better Buildings Initiative to drive

a 20% increase in efficiency for residential and commercial buildings by 2020

ASHRAE/ANSI/IES Standard 90.1 … the basis for new commercial

building codes

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Net

En

erg

y U

se I

nd

ex

(1975=

100)

Standard Release Approval Code Adoption

~5 years

Sources: 1) May 18, 2010 webinar: “Using the Reference Building Models for the Standard 90.1-2010 Development “, Bing Liu, PNNL 2) Jarnagin, RE. “Weighting Factors

for the Commercial Building Prototypes Used in the Development of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2010”,PNNL; January 2010.

Balance

assumed to

be renewable

energy

90-75 90A-1980

90.1-1989

14% Savings

90.1-1999

90.1-2004

90.1-2007

4% Savings

11% Savings

5% Savings

DOE Target – 30% better than

Standard 90.1-2004

Ultimate DOE Goal

Zero Energy Buildings

5

90.1-2010

Standards & codes driving energy reduction …

Expect renewable energy to close gap to Net Zero

Actual performance more

like 6% improved

Today 70% of commercial building energy goes for HVAC and

lighting

Space Heating36%

Cooling8%

Ventilation7%

Water Heating

8%

Lighting21%

Cooking3%

Refrigeration6%

Office Equipment1%

Computers2%

Other9%

6

Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey 2003 (CBECS 2003). All building types combined;

Note: Data reflects existing buildings. 100% = 91.1 kBtu/sf-yr

Average US Commercial Building Energy Use

Focus has been on individual areas of energy use, but need to look at the building as a system

HVAC ~50%

11.8

HVAC, 29.94.3

4.9

7.5

Lights, 11.9

3.2

Plug load, 9.5

1.6

Other Equip, 11.53.9

4.7

Other, 3.9 4.0

66.7

14.3 6.6

3.5

2.2

7.632.6

Baseline(90.1-2007)

HVAC Lighting Plug load Other eqpt Design elements 2030 potential

By 2030, energy intensity in new commercial buildings

can be cut 52% on average1

7

Total Building Energy Use Intensity(kBtu/sf-yr)

WindowsInsulation

BEMS3

HVAC system2

Notes: 1) At a 4 year payback

2) HVAC energy savings based on HVAC energy usage resized for windows, insulation and BEMS savings, which together reduce HVAC energy usage by 48% through 2030;

3) BEMS (building energy management systems) energy savings based on HVAC energy usage resized for windows and insulation savings, which together reduce HVAC energy usage by 27% through 2030;

includes technologies that enable continuous commissioning, fault detection and diagnostics as well as demand response;

4) Other equipment includes refrigeration, water heating and process gas;

5) Design refers to building shape, orientation, siting, etc.

No magic bullet … known elements + integrated design process

Energy Reduction Categories

4 5

Drivers of

improvement

Portion of

improvement

1. Design5 22%

2. Lighting 19%

3. BEMS2 14%

4. HVAC system2 12%

5. Insulation 11%

6. Plug load 10%

7. Other eqpt4 6%

8. Windows 5%

2030 potential, 4.4 kBTU/sf/yr lower endpoint versus 2011 estimate

HVAC, 37.5

HVAC, 25.9

Lights 7.9

Plug load, 5.6

Other eqpt, 12.6Lights, 15.9

Other, 8.6Plug load, 6.9

1.9

7.5Other, 8.6

2.2

83.1

11.6 8.0

1.21.6

Current Energy Retrofit HVAC Lighting Plug load Other eqpt 2030 potential

Similar levers as today’s energy retrofits but with better technologies

By 2030, energy intensity in existing commercial buildings

can be cut ~40% on average vs. ~15% today

8

Source: DOE Building Energy Databook (CBECS 2003); JCI internal analysis

Notes: 1) Other equipment includes refrigeration, water heating and process gas

Energy Reduction Categories

Other eqpt ,14.2

HVAC system

BEMS

Insulation

Total Building Energy Use Intensity(Excluding warehouses, kBtu/sf-yr)

60.6

1

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

2012 2018 2024 20302013

Meet gap

w/renewables

What impact will key technologies have on energy consumption in

new commercial construction?

9

kBTU/ft2

32.6

Total building energy use per year (new construction)

Notes: 1) System comprised of demand response capability, energy performance monitoring/analytics, and integration of component-level controls and sensors; 2) As primary method of building

skeleton insulation; 3) Denotes savings over baseline technology; 4) Technology adoption begins when payback reaches 10 years

By 2030, expect to cut energy intensity by 52%,

Remaining demand will be met through renewables

66.7

Variable Energy Flow

Simultaneous heating &

cooling chiller heat pump

Building Energy

Management Systems1

LED Lighting / Incandescent

Phase-out

Replaces T5/T8 fluorescents

Cool Roof Insulation

Variable

Refrigerant

Flow

Spray Polyurethane

Insulation

Chilled Beams

Advanced Lighting

Controls

Predictive Controls

Service programs tuned to the equipment life cycle

Fa

ilure

s

Time

Break-in

period and

tuning

Random FailuresWear-out period

Programs to drive out early sub-optimal

performance

identify change in

service program

• Improve up-time and efficiency

• Optimize each service call

• Lower customer cost of

ownership

Identify early wear-out

and end of life trend

Calculate the NPV of repair

vs replace as major parts

wear-out.

Equipment Baseline + Historic data + Real Time Data = Dynamic Intelligence

Optimized Maintenance

Approach

Risk Mitigation Approach

Predicatively identify and

fix high probability

failures to minimize

faults before end of life.

Connected

Warranty

Data to drive shortest

time to full performance

– lower warranty costs

New construction to comprise ~30% of US floor-space by 2030…

Bigger opportunity in existing buildings

100%

83%

67%

54%

Unchanged, 41%

9%

16%

23%

Renovated, 29%

9%16%

23%New, 29%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mix of US Building Stock(sq-ft)

Source: Architecture 2030

Existing

Buildings

2013

We expect the average age of buildings to remain steady at ~42 years, so the built

environment at the beginning of the next century will be largely buildings

designed and developed in the next 50 or 60 years

Project

Architect

Structural

Engineer

Mechanical

Engineer

Electrical

Engineer

Lighting

Designer

Landscape

ArchitectGeneral

Contractor

Civil

Engineer

Technology

Contractor

Cx

Authority

Building

Operator

Owner

Traditional Process Integrated Design Approach

Challenges going into the next century: the design & construction

paradigm

12

Up-front focus on Net Zero through integrated design approach

Owner

OwnerBuilding

OperatorCx

Authority

Lighting

Designer

General

ContractorLandscape

Architect

Architect

Mechanical

Engineer

Civil

Engineer

Structural

Engineer

Electrical

Engineer

Challenges going into the next century: cost justifying the next

wave of technology

13

Renewable

Generation

Reliability &

Self Healing

Energy

Storage

Building

Envelope

Cooling

Enthalpy

Exchangers

Thermosyphon

Water Heating

Building Efficiency Smart Grid

Achieving Net Negative energy use result when technical,

regulatory and market factors come together