NESDEC NESDEC K-12 Enrollment K-12 Enrollment

ProjectionsProjections2014-15 through 2018-192014-15 through 2018-19

November 12, 2013November 12, 2013

NESDEC Enrollment AssumptionsNESDEC Enrollment Assumptions

• The rate of housing growth.

• The number of homes sold.

• From 2015-2020, home sales will gradually increase.

• The Meadowood Development will be completed by the end of the decade.

• The final Powder Forest units will be constructed.

• Residential permitting has increased.

• Sales, thus far, appear to be stronger.

Table I – October 1 Enrollment History: 2009-10 through 2013-14Table I – October 1 Enrollment History: 2009-10 through 2013-14

• K-12: 5-year decline of 508 students.• K-6: 5-year decline of 362 students.• 7-8: 5-year decline of 100 students.• 9-12: 5-year decline of 46 students.• 5-year staffing reduction of 40.7 FTE.

Comments – Grade ConfigurationsComments – Grade Configurations

Comments K-12Comments K-12K-12 Enrollment projected to decrease K-12 Enrollment projected to decrease by 77 students for 2014-15by 77 students for 2014-15Projected to decline by 415 students Projected to decline by 415 students by 2018-19 or 9.6%by 2018-19 or 9.6%

Comments Grades 7-8Comments Grades 7-87-8 Enrollment projected to remain 7-8 Enrollment projected to remain stable for 2014-15stable for 2014-15Projected to decline by 139 Projected to decline by 139 students by 2018-19 or 19.1%students by 2018-19 or 19.1%

Comments K-6Comments K-6K-6 Enrollment projected to decrease K-6 Enrollment projected to decrease by 26 students for 2014-15by 26 students for 2014-15Projected to decline 95 students by Projected to decline 95 students by 2018-19 or 4.5%2018-19 or 4.5%

Comments Grades 9-12Comments Grades 9-129-12 Enrollment projected to 9-12 Enrollment projected to decline by 51 students for 2014-15decline by 51 students for 2014-15Projected to decline by 181 Projected to decline by 181 students by 2018-19 or 11.8%students by 2018-19 or 11.8%

Central School ProjectionsCentral School Projections

• Central School is projected to decrease by 5 students or 1.4% in 2014. Five-year projections indicate a decrease of 16 students or 4.3%.

Latimer Lane ProjectionsLatimer Lane Projections

• Latimer Lane School is projected to decrease by 8 students or 1.9% in 2014. Five-year projections indicate a decrease of 24 students or 5.7%.

Squadron Line ProjectionsSquadron Line Projections

• Squadron Line School is projected to increase by 3 students or less than 1% in 2014. Five-year projections indicate a decrease of 53 students or 8.7%.

Tariffville ProjectionsTariffville Projections

• Tariffville School is projected to increase by 10 students or 3.6% in 2014. Five-year projections indicate an increase of 16 students or 5.8%.

Tootin’ ProjectionsTootin’ Projections

• Tootin’ Hills School is projected to decrease by 26 students or 6.5% in 2014. Five-year projections indicate a decrease of 17 students or 4.3%.

Henry James Memorial Henry James Memorial ProjectionsProjections

• Henry James Memorial School is projected to maintain the same enrollment for 2014. Five-year projections indicate a decrease of 139 students or 19.1%.

Simsbury High ProjectionsSimsbury High Projections

• Simsbury High School is projected to decrease by 51 students or 3.3% in 2014. Five-year projections indicate a decrease of 181 students or 11.8%.

Births/Enrollment ComparisonKindergarten Enrollment 2009-10 through 2018-19

compared to Birth Year 2004 - 2013

• Over past 7 years, 125 kindergarteners for every 100 births have registered.• In the fall of 2013, 138 kindergarteners for every 100 births registered

representing the 3rd highest ratio in over a decade.

ConclusionsConclusions

2013 NESDEC projections suggest that K-12 student enrollment will decrease 2013 NESDEC projections suggest that K-12 student enrollment will decrease an average of 83 students per year for the next 5 years.an average of 83 students per year for the next 5 years.

October 1, 2013 enrollment of 4330 is expected to decrease to 3915 students October 1, 2013 enrollment of 4330 is expected to decrease to 3915 students in 2018-19.in 2018-19.

As the economy and real estate situations improve, we can anticipate stronger As the economy and real estate situations improve, we can anticipate stronger in-migration that may affect current patterns indicating decline in enrollment in-migration that may affect current patterns indicating decline in enrollment over 10 years.over 10 years.

A 13.6% K-1 in-migration ratio appears to be accurate for the foreseeable A 13.6% K-1 in-migration ratio appears to be accurate for the foreseeable future.future.

Facilities & Enrollment Study Task Force will revisit the continuation of modular Facilities & Enrollment Study Task Force will revisit the continuation of modular removal plan and any different/additional action necessary in response to the removal plan and any different/additional action necessary in response to the projected decrease in enrollment.projected decrease in enrollment.

NESDEC NESDEC K-12 Enrollment K-12 Enrollment

ProjectionsProjections2014-15 through 2018-192014-15 through 2018-19

November 12, 2013November 12, 2013